The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Does Turkey Have the Power to Control Israel's Future? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

Israel has had a lot of eyes on it lately and many are starting to wonder what the future looks like for this small and arid country. Let's break this down through the lens of deglobalization.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/america-after-the-election-foreign-policy

Hey, everybody. Peter Zine here coming to you from the coast of South Carolina. Several of you have written in on our Patreon forum with questions about what the future of Israel will be, especially as the world that globalizes. Well, a little background and then we'll go into it. So, number one, Israel is not a big place. We're talking about a country that's roughly the size of New Jersey in a large neighborhood that is pretty arid and not exactly full of friends. Yes, Israel has built a surprisingly dynamic society with an amazing level of technological acumen,

but it didn't do it alone, and the question is whether it can sustain itself. It's basically a de facto sponsorship of the United States from the beginning, and while, for example, its missile defenses are impressive, the real ones that intercept the ballistic missiles, the arrows, have never functioned without American participation in terms of targeting, tracking, and even, you know, firing. So by far the most capable state of the region, but the bar isn't exactly high.

So here's a country that imports the vast majority, over 80% of its energy, and despite all the Taka Kabitsas, something like three quarters of its food as well. So it's in kind of a pickle. It requires foreign sponsorship for security, and it requires access to economies outside of the region for its energy,

for its energy and its food. You remove the United States as the security guarantor or you remove globalization, and this should, in theory, be one of those countries that without a radical change of affairs is simply going to drive and blow away. Now, I don't think that is Israel's future because a few things are going to change,

some of which already have. One of the things that so frustrates the United States about Israel is it acts on its own. It has agency. When you are so much more time, technically capable and have so much more reach than your neighbors, you have some options. And the Israelis often exercise them. They often engage in military and paramilitary operations that are directly opposed to U.S. interests. And because of that, the Israelis have this view that no ally is for forever.

And if push comes to shove, you do what you feel he needs to do. And if it happens to piss off the person who ensures you get fed and the lights come on and the missiles get shot down, will then so be it. they know that at some point down the road, they're going to have to do things differently. And while they probably can't do it on their own, that doesn't mean that they can't find a new friend. So the question is, who are the candidates? Well, in terms of energy, I would argue that they've already found that one. Starting over 15 years ago, the Israelis basically built a de facto alliance with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia would provide them with some intel on Iran and some energy. And in exchange, the Israelis would provide the Saudis with backdoor access to American weapons systems that the Americans weren't willing to sell to Saudi Arabia, along with the training that was necessary so they could use them. In addition, anything that involves Iran, the two have cooperated pretty closely. I know. This doesn't mean they get along on everything. Obviously, when it comes to the state of Palestinians, there's still some fine details to work. out. But the two of them get on pretty well behind the scenes. In public, they spat a lot, but behind the scenes, they're actually getting a long grade. They're reasonable friends.

Agriculture is easier. There are a lot more countries in the region that provides food surpluses, most notably in Europe. And so it's not like the Israelis need access to the globalized system to keep the food flowing. But once it comes to security, that basically tells you where they're going to get their food. country in the Middle East is in the process of wondering when the United States will pull back, and if so, who they should go to. And none of the options are particularly good if you're an Arab. Because if you consider that the French and the Brits and the Turks have all had colonial empires in the region, no one really wants to go back to that day. But if you're Israeli, you got some options.

Because the Israelis were never really a traditional colony. It was formed by the Zionist movement in the aftermath of World War II. And so partnering up with France or Britain, or, in my opinion, Turkey is something that can be done with a minimum of cultural pain. Of the three, the most likely candidate will be Turkey, not because it's the closest cultural cousin, it's the opposite. But if Turkey is not a friend, then Turkey will most likely be an enemy. And having an alliance with someone against your local.

foe and puts you really at the mercy of your ally. But if the Israelis can find a way to bury the hatchet with the Turks, then you take the largest economy and military in the area with the most projection-based economy and military in the region, and you get a very powerful pairing that's going to be pretty easy to justify joining. So I think the future of this region is likely to be Turkish led to a degree Israeli-managed, Saudi fueled and those three will have no problem bringing it in

Egypt as a big bulwark partner in North Africa. That quad is likely to be the power center for this region in a post-American system and they have everything that all of them need. Energy, security, naval access, food

and a really good network of intelligence systems. I know a lot of you are going to say, wait a minute, doesn't the Turkish government hate Israel right now? Yes. I didn't suggest if this was going to be easy. The issue is that the Turkish government

can protect Israel from, say, France or Britain. But France or Britain can't really protect Israel from Turkey. So there's really not a lot of strategic choice in here. You know, if you're Saudi Arabia, the idea of reaching out to a distant power like Japan or China makes a degree of sense.

But for Israel, the potential foe is near and present. So if Israel cannot find a successful way to get along with Turkey, then Israel will vanish because this is a region that is actually pretty easy for the Turks to get at. They're not too far away. They only have to punch through Lebanon, and Lebanon's not really going to fight back. Not to mention, you can talk about a really meaningful blockade

that would starve Israel of food and energy as well. Far better to find a way to get in bed with the Turks than the other way around. So again, never said this would be easy. Never said there wasn't a lot of work to do.