The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - How Effective Are the Israeli Defense Systems? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: October 14, 2024

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Israeli defense systems are getting put through the ringer as of late, so let's talk through each of these systems, how they're doing, and what the US involvement looks like. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-effective-are-the-israeli-defense-systems

Hey everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from the South Carolina coast, and we're going to talk about technology that's been in the news a little bit, and that's missile defense, specifically the Israeli system that has proven to be remarkably successful in recent years, both at shooting down Hezbollah rockets coming in from Lebanon, and more recently ballistic missiles coming in from Iran. A couple things to keep in mind, three things to keep in mind. Number one, there is more than one system here. The first system is called Iron Dome, and that is the anti-rocket system that is deployed in northern Israel that's been intercepting the rockets coming in from Lebanon. Now, it's not that this isn't an impressive system in its own way, but the rockets that are being fired by Hezbollah are oftentimes garage projects. And as such, you're not talking about something that's particularly sophisticated or moving particularly quickly. basically what happens is the Israelis launch a lot of interceptors when a barrage is coming in and they kind of loiter until they can lock onto a rocket and then they zip down and hit it. But even if they miss, a lot of times these things have a very high dud rate.

Over a third of them probably don't even explode when they do hit and they have next to no guidance. In fact, most of have no guidance at all. So it's good for what it is, but let's not overplay it. Also keep in mind that Israel is the size of New Jersey and the northern border with Lebanon is very, very short. So from a technical point of view, relatively easy to guard that sort of territory. The second system, second thing to know, is the ballistic defense is something called the aerosystem. And it is significantly more sophisticated than what's going on with Iron Dome. And this is what was pulled into play in order to defend Israel against the ballistic attacks that came in from Iran last week.

Now, the problem here is in assessing how successful it is, we really don't know, not because it hasn't shot missiles down, but because it hasn't done so alone. In the recent attacks that have come in from Iran, the United States has been there and present and shooting things down to and linking their radars together. And we just don't know how well the Israelis could do if it wasn't for American involvement in the defense. It probably still is among the best in the world, but everything that has been thrown at it has already had to deal with the United States. Everything has basically been designed before the year 2000. You're talking about missiles that are at least 20 years old

off of designs that are at least 30 years old. And calling it cutting edge is probably the wrong phrase. Again, this is a country the size of New Jersey. You don't need a lot of arc of coverage in order to shield the whole thing. And even with those factors in play, a lot of the missiles still made it through. They didn't cause any sub-dastral damage,

but that is a fault of the missiles and maybe perhaps deliberate targeting, avoiding civilian areas more than anything else. And then the third and final thing to keep in mind is that for the United States, this is a perfect lap. United States assists with both of these dispense systems, with the intent of then taking them,

modifying them for our uses, whether in terms of deployment theaters or the Holand, and then scaling them up. And so, believe it or not, all of the ongoing agony and violence of the Middle East in many ways is providing the perfect testbed for missile defense for U.S. defense systems. Okay, I got to hit the beach today.

But anyway, until then, bye.