The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - How France, Germany and Poland Can Strengthen the Weimar Triangle || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: July 1, 2024

In the post-Cold War world, France, Germany and Poland concocted the Weimar Triangle as a way to foster cooperation amongst the three countries. The trio has weakened over the years - due to differing national priorities - but Russia's invasion of Ukraine might necessitate getting the gang back together. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strengthen-the-weimar-triangle

Hey, everybody. Peter Zion here coming to you from the base of the serious part of West Spanish Peak in New Mexico adjacent Southern Colorado. I'm waiting for a storm to pass before I get out on the ridge line, being six and a half feet tall, and a thunder boomer isn't really the best call. Anyway, on the topic of things that have been, but very soon may be incredible, today, 27th of June, there was a summit of a group called the Weimar Triangle, which is the leadership. of France, Poland, and Germany, the three critical countries of the northern European Plain. The Weimar Triangle was envisioned in the aftermath of the Cold War, when Poland was no longer Soviet satellite country, and was on the way to joining the European Union and NATO organizations that Poland has since joined.

The idea was that in the long swath of bloody European history, France, Germany, and Poland tended to find themselves on different sides of much. most major issues leading to many of the major wars. Anyway, the idea was that if you get them all the same side, then the Northern European plane is said of the most blood-soaked part of the planet can be something better, a path of trade and cooperation. And you could argue that the idea of the Vymera Triangle has been realized, but it's not because of the triangle. You see, this is how it all started in the 1990s, but by the time we got in the 2000 and 2010s, the three countries drifted apart. France tried to be an independent poll in international affairs, which is always a mixed bag.

Germany tried to forego the politics and forego security talks and simply focus on trade by exploiting labor and infrastructure in central Europe and by taking a completely amoral position on really everything that mattered. And Poland was in and out and in and out every possible interpretation of what it means to be Polish. Remember that Poland only had its first democratic election. in the early 1990s, and so here we are really only one generation later. There's a lot of deep divisions within Polish society about the role of government, or where Poland fits within Europe or within the wider world, and it's not going to come to an equilibrium anytime soon.

So by the time we get to about 2002, especially with the Iraq War in 2003, the Vimar triangle basically fell apart until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. And now the three states are starting to talk a lot. And instead of collaborating on things that are, say, economic in nature, the three of them today have decided to start working on joint military acquisitions and development, specifically for long-range cruise missiles, things with a range in excess of 2,000 kilometers. The reason is simple, as the Germans will tell you, if you go to war with the Russians and you take a defensive position, then the entire wealth and resources of the entire Russian Federation, or Soviet Union, or,

Russian Tsarist, Imperial Russia, whatever happens to be, can be collected into a single fist and punch at you wherever it wants to. And if you are left playing defense against that, you are going to lose. So you have to have a deep strike capacity that shatters the infrastructure and the logistical capability of the Russians far from the front. Throughout the Cold War, this is basically what NATO did by practicing things like the North Cape exercises, which weren't necessarily designed to plug the fold of gap, but instead to prevent the Russians from reaching the gap in the first place. Now, where to go with this?

It's a realization, especially in Germany, which, where the defense minister of Pistoris is the one that's heading up this effort, that we are really in a fundamentally different world. And the foreign policies, especially of the French and the Germans of recent years, simply doesn't work anymore. And getting that sort of weapons capacity in Europe gives the Europeans the ability to to forestall a Russian invasion if and should Ukraine fall because the Poles know that they're next

and the Germans are fearful that they're after the polls. So it makes sense to do this as soon as possible. The question, of course, is whether it's going to work as well as my hike and the answer's probably... Because even if the triangle can come up with the perfect weapon system, you know, launching from the eastern half of Poland, you know, you're still long way from huge parts of the Russian industrial base. I mean, remember, during World War,

with the German invasion of the Soviet Union, Stalin built a lot of industrial plant on the other side of the Urals. So, I mean, we're talking about a big place here, which is why that greeny Piznick, Henry Kissinger always said in the post-Col era, that no matter what your goal is,

he's a loss girl. It can't be a Vimar triangle, it has to be a Vymar Quartet. Ukraine has to be called. If Russia is hostile, well, and then you get a bit of a civil war among the Slavs, and you can launch any sort of assault from 1,500 miles further east,

just throw in a huge amount of Russian territory open. Remember that from the Ukrainian border to Moscow, it's only about 350 aisles. That's not that far. But more importantly, Ukraine is not technically part of the northern European plate. It's out actually in the Eurasian Ardlands itself. And so you split that territory between Russia and Ukraine, and instead of Russia being able to focus all of its attention on the Polish gap, it all of a sudden has this massive

frontier to worry about. That's in part why Putin will onto the war in the first place. But second is the better option, is because you're going forward, is let's assume that Russia gives up its genocidal, irredentist ways and decides to join the family of nations. Well, splitting the territory of the Hornets into lower than one piece ensures that I'm I never have a retrenchment that would be sustainable. And if there is a way forward where Moscow is, you know, a decent place and Russia becomes a normal country, it will do so with Ukraine on its side. And the only way to make sure that that works is to have the Weimar Quartet fortified Ukraine, not just economically, but also militarily.

So there can't be backsliding. Of course, the question then is, will that work? Well, that's why we call it Weeking History. All right, see you on the next mountain.