The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - More Than Hon Hon Hon: What Are the French Up to in Ukraine? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: March 27, 2024

There's been recent discussions by French President Macron regarding deploying French troops to Ukraine. Is this really going to happen and why would they do this? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-are-the-french-up-to-in-ukraine

Hey everybody, Peter Zine here, coming to you from Colorado. Today we're going to kick around what the French are doing in Europe, specifically in Ukraine. You have French President Macron, who has been recently talking about sending French troops into Ukraine. And not only is this like broken the ice on a broader strategic discussion, it bears the question of what the hell the French are thinking, how they fit into the alliance network, how this might play out. And I got to say, in traditional French fashion, it's, uh, it's interesting. So the French have a reputation, well-earned, I might point out, for being rather narcissistic. They're convinced that the world revolves around them.

They believe that oftentimes the Americans are just as much of a problem as they're more legitimate strategic threats, because the Americans tend to take the lead and everything because they're providing the men and the money and the intelligence and the satellite system and the transport, you know, other pesky things. but the French have always, always, always, but at the center of decision-making in Europe, largely because they've had a relatively strategic position out on the western edge where they're not being constantly hit from multiple directions so they can focus their forces when they want to. Not to this degree of a naval power like Britain, of course,

but for a land power, they punch pretty hard, and it's kind of hard to hit them back. Now, what this means is that the French, being on the far side, side of Western Europe, aren't directly impacted by the day-to-day goings-on of the Ukraine war. And even in the worst-case scenario where Ukraine falls, they're not in the next line of attack. That would be Poland and then Germany and then the low countries before you would get to France. So from a certain point of view, the French can take an almost American approach to this and take the very long view.

And that's been shaped by their political culture, their geography, their military, system. There's nothing new here. But why, why, why, why, why would they be talking about sending troops? Well, we've got a few things going on that are making this more and more feasible. Number one, the very nature of Europe needs to change. So the EU, as it was originally envisioned, was an economic and trading club. But everything that allowed it to work has basically broken down in the last few years. Number one, globalization is going away. So the Europeans are losing their ability to sell on the international market bit by bit. France, being nationalist, never really got into that so they don't have anything to lose.

Second, demographics. Most of Europe is aging so rapidly that all of the major countries can basically cease function as modern economies in five to 15 years. But not France. France actually has natalist policies, and so has a pretty high birth rate. There are complications that come from that, but this is not a country whose economic models in danger. Third, if Europe as an entity is going to matter at all, it has to be able to stand up for its own security concerns, and we now know very clearly that the Russians are not going to stop

unless they are stopped. That means France, despite being on the far western edge, can't take a completely hands-off approach. You can take the long view, but it can't do nothing. You put all this together, and the French sea putting boots on the ground Ukraine is something to very seriously consider. Number one, there's a lot of resources, especially in agriculture, in Ukraine. Getting that under the European ages,

so it can be regulated by European norms is something the French like just as it is. Number two, technology. Ukraine has become a background in a new type of warfare using mass drones in the hands of not just strategic decision makers, but everyday troops.

And if you are France, you would rather understand that before it comes to your borders. So having folks there not just to train the Ukrainians, but to be trained by the Ukrainians makes a lot of sense. Three, whatever the future of the European Union is going to be, it's not going to be a major trading block. They no longer have the population to sustain that. It's going to be based more in politics, security, culture, and identity. Well, these are things that the French are much more comfortable with. And if you can bring Ukraine into that family, it makes the overall unity

of the system much stronger and more coherent. This isn't like the old days when the French would oppose European Union expansion because they didn't want to have to subsidize anyone. Those days are over anyway. The European Union is losing the ability to do that as the Germans age out. There's no one left to write the check,

except for the French, and they don't want to, so they'd rather change the nature of the union itself. And then finally, there's a leadership issue here. A very short-term leadership issue. Under German Chancellor Schultz, Germany is basically getting dragged into a lot of strategic positions. They've got a fractured government made of libertarian businessmen, greens, and social democrats. And there's very little that they agree on, and it's really hard for them to change their mind on any policy or take a leadership position because before Germany can act, the coalition has to come to an agreement.

So whether it's been on subsidies or health care or labor negotiations or the Ukraine war or EU, policy, everything is just so damn slow. And then you have France, where there's a majority government run by a major party under a relatively charismatic leader who can make decisions and implement them very quickly. And if you put that in the context of what's going on Ukraine right now in this conversation of troops, people aren't looking to Germany to set the strategic conversation at all. They're looking to the French and may they may not like what the French have to say, but there's a lot of different opinions. Because if you are in Estonia, or Latvia, or Lithuania, or Finland, or Sweden, or Poland, well, of course we're going to have

to get involved in Ukraine. Of course the Russians are not going to stop. Of course we need to consider putting boots on the ground in order to protect the Ukrainians and look out for European values, to have someone on the other side of Europe and far west saying that, that's a rallying cry. not something to argue against. So for the first time in quite some time, the French are getting some very real strategic kudos from other European countries for being aggressive

as opposed to just arguing with the United States. And then this is the final issue of what would they do when they get there. We're not talking about French troops going to the front line and fighting the Russians. No, no, no. This is not a Napoleonic invasion. The idea is threefold. Number one, you put them there in order to repair equipment that the Ukrainians need, so it doesn't have to get

shipped all the way to Western Europe. So speed the process up. Number two, training both ways. The French training the Ukrainians, especially in things like special forces. The Ukrainians training the French, especially in things like drone tech. And then third, provide a strategic backstop in places that you don't expect to get hot, but could. So you put French troops on, say, the border of Belarus, or the border of Moldova, where the Russians have forces in a place called Transnistra, where they're basically sponsored a secessionist operation 30 years ago, and they're still there. And that way, the Ukrainian forces that are there now can redirect to the front line. So there's a lot of reasons that we should treat this seriously.

I mean, yes, it's the French, so there's a lot of bombast and pomposity. But this is a very, very real strategic discussion the Macron has started. And if I was a betting man, I'd say it's going to manifest as something that is actually real before the end of this year. Thank you.