The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - No More Military Exemption for Israeli Ultra-Orthodox || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: July 2, 2024

The Israeli Supreme Court just ruled that the ultra-Orthodox community will no longer get exemption from military service. This addresses a number of long-standing issues, but it could spell trouble for Netanyahu's political career. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/no-more-military-exemption-for-israeli-ultra-orthodox

Hey, everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from Squared Top Mountain, and back behind me is Argentine Peak, Edwards and I think Kelso. Anywho, it's 25th of June. And, poof, wind. Today we're going to talk about what's going down in Israel. The Supreme Court just ruled that the country's ultra-Orthodox, who have been granted exemptions from serving in the military for decades, can no longer get the exemptions because it's discriminatory.

Long-term issue is that the ultra-Orthodox are somewhere between. between 10 and 20% of Israel's population based on where you draw the number. And since they pay very low taxes and qualify for all kinds of subsidies and don't serve, most of them don't work. And so they have high, very, very, very high birth rates, very, very low labor participation rates and they don't serve in the military. So there is an issue that as they become a larger and larger percentage of the population, just the sheer weight of what is then dropped on the shoulders of everybody else,

almost insurmountable. Keep in mind that there is an Arab minority in Israel that secular, not like they're protesting or throwing bombs or anything, but it's a very real issue from a national identity and a social management point of view. There's also a short-term issue that has to do with the Netanyahu government. Most of the parties that subscribe to Orthodox are part of Netanyahu, Prime Minister Netanyahu's governing coalition, and have been for quite some time. Israel's had a lot of government's the last 20 years, when since Nihau kind of came into the burst upon the field. He's definitely their longest running prime minister overall.

Anyway, what's the best way I can put this into American terms? Think of Matt Gates, you know, the guy from Florida with a really good hair. Talks a lot of shit about the military, but he thinks that the military is a solution to everything. We should bomb this country and invade that country, but he's never served. So take blowhards who don't really contribute to the system, that they know best about how to use military power. Strip away the good hair and the child sex trafficking charges and the drug charges, or allegations, excuse me.

And basically, from a political point of view, you just described most of the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu's coalition. So they talk a big game, but they don't really contribute to the solution financially or in terms of people with boots. There's another issue, of course, And then, whoop, war wind.

Next spot. And we're back. And there's also a very short-term issue. After the Hamas assault on Israel back in October, Netanyahu was able to convince most of the parties in parliament to form a unity government because the feeling was the attack had been on everyone, so everyone should have a say in how things unfold.

Since then, Netanyahu is not shared power with the unity government all that much, and so party after party has left, accusing Netanyahu of not having a plan for the war, accusing Netanyahu of prolonging the war for his own political purposes in order to solidify his position as prime minister, and accusing him and the ultra-Orthodox overall of just general strategic incompetence, because this attack shouldn't have happened.

Hamas is like the one thing that the Israelis are watching every single day. There shouldn't have been no surprise attack, and here we are eight months later, and there's no sign that the war is going to conclude. And in a number of places where Israel has supposedly already cleansed the area of Hamas fighters, they popped up again. So the international condemnation from the point of view of people who have left, the Israeli government is now for nothing because the Israelis have basically paid the price of launching a major war

and being at least indirectly complicit, a lot of unpleasantness, but there's still no sign that the war's end is in sight. that means that Netanyahu really, really needs the Orthodox to hold on to power while other parties in Parliament are now actively agitating for fresh elections. We'd only take one significant coalition partner in Nanyang's coalition to force new elections

in which Nanyang would probably not do very well. And you had to throw the Supreme Court today into that mix and you're undoubtedly going to have at least some ultra-Orthodox who think they might get a better deal with a different government as opposed to having to serve in the military or actually be actively involved in changing the law so that their own people have to serve in the military since they're sitting in the government right now

when the case has been made. Anyway, so significant decision changes things on the domestic and the international fronts, and that's all I've got. All right, I've got to cross this.