The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Poland, After America || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: February 7, 2024

This next country might surprise some of you, but deglobalization might give Poland its moment of fame. That's if they play their cards right, and even then, it will be a fleeting moment, but a moment in the spotlight nonetheless. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/poland-after-america

Hey everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from the Equal Nest Wilderness in Central Colorado on top of Ethel's Peak with a Buffalo Pass there below and behind me. Today we're going to go back into that post-American series I've been doing every once in a while and specifically talking about one of the hot spots and that will be Poland. Now, Poland is one of those countries that we don't think of very often as a major power because it has been so badly treated throughout history. It's got major powers around it, specifically Sweden, Russia, and Germany, and it tends to get gobbled up by them very easily. Its coastline isn't great, and so the Swedes have always been able to predate upon them, and that it's land borders with both the Germans, and the Russians are wide open. So there's no chance of doing any sort of static defense. as such, these Polish military and modern times, is heavy on air power with extended ranged fuel tanks

so that while they might not be able to stop a Russian invasion, they can reach Moscow and bomb it and at least make the Russians thinks twice. That's kind of the national strategy here. And then, of course, they're never sure if they can rely upon the Germans because every time the Germans have gone on the warpath, Poland is usually one of the first couple of stops. Things are going to change over the course of the next 20 years

for a number of reasons, but really the biggest chunk is economics and demography. The Germans and the Russians have two of the worst demographic structures on the planet. And while Sweden is an up-and-coming power again, and it can definitely punch above its weight, this is not the 1600s, and Sweden today has under 10 million people. So even if it punches like triple its weight, Poland still has 40 million people. Also, the Swedes these days are not looking to expand into empire.

So, you know, there's that. Anyway, what this means is, is that we're seeing an opening window of opportunity for Poland. As the German system fails because of demographic decline and economic collapse, remember, this is a country that exports everything, so anything happens to globalization, they're done. Also, they can't maintain their workforce for more than another 10 years. Russia is only slightly behind that in terms of demographic decline.

In fact, once you look at the health figures, it's probably worse. Everyone in Germany, at least, is in decent health. You've got a lot of alcoholism and a lot of HIV and a lot of tuberculosis. in Russia. You don't have any of those in Poland. Which means that for the Russians, things are going to go one of two directions. Either number one, they're going to win hand over fist in Ukraine, and then they're going to come for Poland, and we're going to have a knock-down, drag-out fight. At some point over the next 20 years, the Russian wave will rest, and then it will fall back

because they won't be able to maintain their military structures, and will have the polls being more and more and more aggressive, assuming they don't fall completely, and pushing into the former Russian space in order to break it up so nothing like that can never happen again. For those of you who don't think that that can happen, it's happened before the Russians call it the time of troubles, and that brings us to the second possibility that in Ukraine, that this is all that the Russians can do, and this war will break them in the next few years. And then the polls will push more and more aggressively into the Russian space to make sure that nothing like that ever happens again. Remember, in the 1600s, 1604, I believe, the Poles actually

occupied Moscow and held it for a generation. Only this time, the Russians would be an economic and demographic decline, if not outright, collapse, so it might actually last a little bit longer. Now, for those of you who are Polish, don't do too much chest beating. A lot of things have to happen. Poland, like Romania, really only does well when the countries on its edges are weak. The problem we have in Poland is it's just big enough to think that it can pull this off by itself, whereas the Romanians know that they have to partner with somebody. Now, there are two paths for the pools to take. Option number one is economic collapse and status economy followed by a military expansion.

Probably the most likely outcome. Remember that Poland today is economically wealthy because of its relationship with German manufacturing. And if that goes away, option number two is the Swedes step in, become the new partner, both demographically, economically, strategically. And you get Polish land power with Swedish amphibious power, and that could be a very potent combination in the Baltic, sharing a lot of common values and maybe even having a vector of American assistance in there.

Though it's kind of the playbook as I see it right now. And finally, before polls get too excited, keep in mind that Polish demographics are not all that much better than Russian or German. I mean, they're better, but they're aging just as fast as from a younger base. So if we're looking at an end to the German and the Russian systems over the next 10 to 20 to 30 years, we're also looking at a complete refabrication of the Polish systems over the next 20 to 50 years. So there's going to be a window here where Poland becomes the most powerful land power in the region, and it is a moment in time.

and what the Poles decide to do with that is going to reshape this region for at least the next century. Oh, and one more thing about Poland. They are preparing for this future. In the aftermath of the beginning of the Ukraine war, when the Russians proved that they were not the military superpower, everybody thought they were, all of a sudden a land war in Poland didn't seem nearly as stupid. And so the Polish government fast forward plans to expand their tank force. They cut a deal with the South Koreans and had already imported 180 tanks from Korea's stocks.

And there are plans underfoot already in development to manufacture another 800 and some within Poland itself. When this is finished, and it's supposed to be finished within three years, it's not that Poland will have a more powerful tank force than the United Kingdom or France or Italy or Germany. It's that it'll have a more powerful tank force than the United Kingdom and France and Italy and Germany. So all of a sudden, looking back at history, a second run at Moscow, it doesn't seem nearly as crazy. see.