The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Prigozhin Is Dead...But Who Did It? || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: August 24, 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, has reportedly died in a plane crash. The question that comes to mind isn't why this happened (because Prigozhin's hands were plenty dirty), but who did it?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/prigozhin-is-dead-but-who-did-it

Hey, everybody, Peter Zine here, coming to you from Colorado. I was on my way back from a quick camping trip and found out that Yvgeny Progozen, who was the leader of that Wagner group that launched the pseudo coup a few weeks ago, was supposedly on a plane that went down in Russia. His death is not a low probability outcome, considering his life choices and the people he surrounded himself with. But I think it's worth doing a little bit of reflecting

because the cast of characters who may have wanted him dead and had the ability to kill him is, you know, lengthy. So at the top of the list, of course, is Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, who relied upon Progozen to do a lot of unsavory things over the years, most recently including a meat grinder assault in Ukraine and the eastern city of Bahmut, which killed minimum 30,000 Russian soldiers. Some numbers are suggesting the number maybe is in high of 100,000, but God knows, Russian data, war, fog, propaganda, don't know. Anyway, when, by launching a coup and publicly insulting the entire military industrial complex

of the Russian Federation, obviously Putin felt that he had an extra grind and somebody he had to snip. So, obviously, candidate number one. But hardly the only one. Remember, progosen, ugh, you really don't need to learn how to pronounce that anymore, do I? Progosen, uh, progosen, uh, uh, uh, also pissed off the military industrial complex, which executed this war broadly and competently.

And a key thing to remember about the military industrial complex in Russia, there's a military complex, and there's an industrial complex, and they are not the same thing, nothing like it is here in the United States. In Russia, they're very separate. The industry part, the part where the weapons are manufactured, a guy by the name of Chimazov,

who is in the Putin's inner circle is part of that, but that's not where all the insults were directed. towards the military proper, and the military is not, not, not part of the coalition that backs Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin's coalition is a combination of former intelligence operatives from the then-KGB, now FSB, as well as organized crime. And that is yet another potential candidate to want him Progosen dead. Remember that Progozen came to Putin's attention as a caterer. who just happened to have some really obscene things to say about a lot of things that Putin liked.

And eventually, that turned into FaceTime with Putin, that turned into the state contracts, that eventually created the Wagner military group. So there are no end of people in Putin's inner circle in the world of organized crime that want this guy dead, either because he screwed them over or he was a stepping stone from them to get more of Putin's ear. Any number of reasons could play. This is after all Russia. But of course, not all of the candidates, suspects, if you will, have to be in Russia. The Ukrainians have their own reason to want Prozhen dead because a lot of Ukrainians is part of the Bakhmuts siege.

The Poles are probably a little nervous about it because Progozan and Wagner were supposed to relocate to Belarus after the coup deal was signed. And they decided to settle right on the Polish border. Belarus is another candidate, Lukashenko, who is the president, who is the president. president of Belarus, who's kind of like the schnauzer of the former Soviet world, is the one who supposedly cut the deal between Putin and Progozen after the coup. And if there's anything we know about the former Soviet world, it's that deals don't hold typically until someone is dead. And so this could have been part of it the whole time.

And let's not forget people from further abroad. Let's talk about the Americans. You guys remember the troll factory? Progozen is the guy who founded that. He's the one who was actually involved bragged. I mean, this is not controversial in Russia, bragged openly and publicly about interfering in the American presidential election

between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. So, I mean, there are any number of people here who would love to see a bullet in this guy's head or in this case, you know, smeared over the landscape in central Russia. And of course, this all assumes that the dude is actually dead. Yes, his name was on the manifest. Yes, he was on one of ten people who was on the vessel. but at the time of this recording, which is about 7 p.m. Eastern,

they've only found eight bodies. So, this is Russia, you know, a riddle and an enigma in a mystery and a cheese sandwich. It's, uh, even if he really is dead. This is still only the beginning of the story, because it means that there has now an opening in Putin's inner circle for another person who can be used to be a little bit of plausible deniability. Not only was this the guy who was involved in the little green men fiascos in 2014 in the original Crimea War, not only is this the guy who was interfering in U.S. elections,

this is also the guy who's led an operation in a dozen African countries where he's accused of war crimes. It's too important of a role for the Russian state, especially now for the Kremlin, to just be empty, someone will step forward. The question is whether that someone is a friend of Putin or not. And that could be all kinds of fun. All right, bye.