The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Russian Opposition Leader, Alexei Navalny, Dies in Prison || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: February 16, 2024

Alexei Navalny, a prominent political prisoner and Putin critic, died in a harsh Siberian prison. This prison was a former Soviet-era gulag, so no real surprise there... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-dies-in-prison

Hey, everyone, Peter Zine here coming to you from a very foggy Colorado. It is the 16th of February, and the news today is that Russian prison authorities have announced the death of Alexei Nelvaney. He was a political prisoner who had the audacity to criticize Vladimir Putin and run for office long ago, years ago, and has been in prison ever since. He was transferred about a year ago to a high security prison in the middle of nowhere in Siberia. It was an old Soviet gulag. This is basically where the Russian government sends people when they want them to die because it's cold, it's brutal, there's no heat, and medical service is deliberately denied. So the idea that he's dead is not exactly a shock. The Russian government very well could have actually executed him and no one would know.

Now, back in 2021, the Biden administration said the death of Nelvaney would trigger a collapse in international relations that would really punish the Russians. But since then, the Russians have launched a war and killed a couple hundred thousand people in Ukraine. So pretty much all of these stops that could be pulled out have been pulled out and about the only way to punish the Russians now would be to send a lot more weapons to Ukraine or to do an outright block of all of their energy exports, neither of which on the moment for a mix of political and economic reasons are on deck. So I don't want to say anything weird like, you know, the Russians are going to get away with this because there's a lot going on, but don't expect any sort of tactical response from the Americans in general or the West.

Now, before anyone gets to crying about this, a couple things to keep in mind. Number one, Russia's not a democracy. It hasn't really been a democracy in over 20 years. So even if Nalvei was allowed to continue to be part of the political conversation in Russia, it's not likely any chance of changing policy. He was more of a personal annoyance to Putin and nothing more. There are other people within the ruling party who have decided to run for presidency against Putin on a very nationalist ticket, but just be opposed to the war

and they're not being allowed to participate either. So it really doesn't matter. It's something that pro-democracy activists in the West get really excited about because he's a name that more people know, but he was never going to have any influence. Second, careful what you wish for. Nalvaney may have been a nicer guy than Putin

because, you know, low bar, but he was just as nationalists. And his biggest criticism of the Ukraine war wasn't that it was happening, but it just wasn't being prosecuted very well. people forget that the strong predilection among Russians is to continue the war. They just don't want to be part of it personally. The idea that Russia needs to expand its borders in order to survive is not one that is particularly debated in Russia.

It's generally been their security policy for 400 years. That as long as your external borders are flat and open, you're not safe. So you have to go through Ukraine to get to Romanian Poland and the rest. Now, of course, that's bad for Romanian, Poland, and the rest, but the Russians are not misreading the map. And unfortunately, that gets wrapped up in the political discussion so that folks like Melvaney appear more important than they really are. So, I mean, I feel bad for the guy and his family, but we were probably always going to get here.