The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Sub-Sea Drone Strike on Russian Sub || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: December 26, 2025

Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed a Russian Kilo-class submarine while in the port of Novorossiysk using a subsea drone.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MJ2gNg

Hey everybody, Peter Zeyn here coming to you from Colorado. Quick one today. The news is that in the last couple of weeks, the Ukrainian government has announced that they have used a new type of drone, a subsea drone, to attack and destroy a Russian submarine kilo class in the Russian port of Novorosisk. The reason I've waited so long to comment on this is because the details were vague. The Russians have denied it. The Russians deny everything. And the Ukrainians haven't provided a lot of evidence. We do have satellite photos now that indicate there was damage on the inside of the port, whether or not a submarine was hit or sunk is unclear. I would note that if you put a reasonably sized bomb on the outside of a submarine, that

submarine is not going to go underwater, or if it does go underwater, it will never come back up again. So it doesn't take much damage to take one of these out for the long term, and the Russians no longer have the capacity to refit them, because that equipment is in Crimea, and Crimea is under regular air drone assault. So if this kilo-class sub was even mildly damaged, it's out. A couple things to keep in mind, however. Number one, on the Ukrainian side. The fact that a sea attack happened in Nova Ossesk is extraordinarily bad for the Russians. It was one thing when they lost the ability to base their navy out of the Crimea.

So they moved back to Nova Ossesk because it was out of range of air attacks. Then air attacks started happening regularly earlier this year. Now we not just have a sea attack, but a sub-sea attack. There are any number of ways that that might have happened. maybe there was a mother ship involved, maybe it was smuggled into Russia proper, and then the thing was dropped in the water and sent on. But the bottom line is,

is that the targeting suite of these drones is very limited, and if it goes underwater, it's not receiving signals from anyone else unless it's on a tether. And if it's on a fibrotic tether, you'd have to have another ship nearby, which really stretches the imagination, the things that the Russians would be that unaware of things going on in their own immediate waters.

Which means that if this is true, what happened was that the sub was at dock when it happened. We do see damage to the dock. We do see damage to the booms. And if this is a fundamentally new weapon from the Ukrainians, they're calling it a sub-sea baby. The sea baby is their surface drones. Then Noversquist has become completely untenable

for any sort of Russian naval or maritime activity. Remember that this is the Russian's largest port in the area. It's their primary oil export point. It's already been hit a couple of times. And it is now the headquarters for the Black Sea Fleet, which means they'll have to move down to the coast at a place called Tuopsa, which it doesn't have nearly the cup capability. So we really are talking about the functional end of the entire Russian Black Sea fleet

within the next 12 months, if this is true. Second, other side of the equation. I wouldn't get too excited about subsea drones. Because we don't have meaningful guidance or decision trees on naval drones at this point, point. This is much less useful than a modern day torpedo. It would have to be dropped off relatively close to where it's going. It can't track an active signature. It can only go to a pre-programmed fixed point. That doesn't mean it's a nothing burger because anything that can get around detection is something the Ukrainians or really anyone who's involved in a naval conflict is

going to want, but it is not an at-sea weapon. It is an anti-port weapon. So that is of significance, but in modern naval warfare, it is certainly not a game-changer in its current form.