The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - The Russian Navy Leaves Syria for Benghazi... || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: December 31, 2024

There are reports stating the Russian naval fleet might have found a new home (since their last one in Syria is no longer available). This new location is Benghazi, Libya and boy oh boy would I love to see that happen.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-navy-leaves-syria-for-benghazi

Hey everybody, Peter Zion, New Zealand, Tungarer Circuit, blah, blah, blah. This is a quick take. I just found out that the scuttle butt in the Middle East is that the Russians are going to relocate their fleet to Benghazi. Libya. Quick background. The Russians have been operating out of the ports of Banias and Tartas in Syria for about a decade, and they've been using those as the primary supply points to participate in the Syrian Civil War, where they are responsible for, among other things,

carpet bombing civilians and probably killing somewhere around 100,000 people in Aleppo specifically. Anyway, the new government that is taking form is a group of military groups that are opposed by the Russians, so the Russians are getting the hell out of Dodge because they're not completely stupid. Anyway, I'm digging this Big Ghazi story.

Let me explain. The Russian fleet has to go somewhere. They can't stay in Syrian water. for long, and their options are limited. If they were to try to go through the Turkish straits to get to the Black Sea, which would be for some of these ships their home port, that is not allowed because there is now a war on in the Black Sea, and under the Treaty of Montreux that the Turks adjudicate and control,

no warships can come through without Turkish get-go, and the Turks back the militant groups that are kicking out the Syrian government and the Russians, so can't go there. You could sail all the way around Europe to where the northern fleet headquarters are in Murmanska and Archangel. But Russian ships don't have much range, and it's highly likely that most of the fleet wouldn't be able to make it, so they would have to dock to refuel and resupply in European ports, all of which are NATO. And the likelihood of a NATO country just seizing the ships very high. So two humiliations that the Russians are trying to avoid.

So that leaves Benghazi in Italy, where again the Russians are participating in the local civil war. Here's the thing. Benghazi doesn't have the necessary port facilities to do full resupply. It certainly can't do repairs. So the Russians would have to build that. When they did in Syria, it took several years and several billion dollars. So in the meantime, the Russian fleet would just sit in Libya, rusting while support facilities are built. And with the way things are going between NATO and Russia,

The chances of there being a bit of a spark down the line, pretty good. And the Russians will have repositioned their most capable naval assets with an easy striking distance of the French Navy and the Italian Air Force. So in order to avoid some significant embarrassment today, the Russians are arguably doing the most stupid thing that I could possibly come up with. And I really hope they do it.