The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - The U.S. Can't Break the (Arctic) Ice || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: August 4, 2026

Despite the growing importance of the Arctic, the U.S. continues to move further away from a sustainable operating plan. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fZ0H9V

Hey, everybody. Good morning from Colorado. This is Peter Zion. Today we're going to talk about how the American Arctic strategy collapsed over the weekend. The United States only has a small icebreaker fleet. And the biggest of them, the Healy, was undergoing high-speed trials after a repair cycle. And the engines crapped out. The crankshaft broke. There was a bit of a fire. And it basically stalled out and had to be towed back to port. We don't know how long it's going to take to get it back into operation. it will be at least the remainder this year.

And this is after a series of other mishaps that involved in engine room fire and a transformer fire. This ship has not been doing well since it came online 20 years ago. Second, you've got the polar star, which is over 50 years old. And its only job is to run supply runs to Antarctica at a supply Fort McMurdo. The McMurdo base, if you prefer. That's its only job. And it is now completed that most recent cycle and has begun its own refit. That just leaves a ship called the Storm.

Now, Coast Guard vessels are in that gray area. It's a middle branch of the military, but the ships are kind of a civilian military hybrid oftentimes. Well, not for the stores. The stores is a flat-out civilian vessel in construction. It's an oil tug that's been converted, and it is now the only ship the United States has that's an icebreaker. Whether you're looking at global warming and new routes, whether you're looking at competition with the Russians or the Chinese, this is basically bad because the United States no longer even has a ship in the game. And the backup plan, while wise under normal circumstances, probably isn't going to work out.

You see, under the Biden and later Trump administrations, Trump 2, the United States basically signed a series of agreements with the Canadians and the Finns to build icebreaker's forests. You see, we don't even have a shipyard that can build them anymore. And that would be great, especially now that Finland's in NATO. But the two countries that the Trump administration has threatened most directly and most repeatedly are Canada. Canada is not going to help us build an ice baker fleet that could then circumvent Canadian power in the Arctic. And then there's Denmark, you know, with the whole Greenland thing. Finland is a very tight ally of Denmark.

And if the United States seizes Greenland, we can basically kiss the entire Scandinavian block goodbye. So basically, we are looking at a period for at least the next 30 years. The United States does not have a military presence on the waters in the Arctic whenever there's ice. We can still sail up there in the summer. We can still use air power, which is of limited use on the water. But other than that, we're looking at the United States, not even having a tool in the box. And at a time where the world is in churn to not even be able to play is a real problem, and this is something that will resonate well, well throughout the remainder of this century. So, you know, ugh.