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Episode Date: May 26, 2026

There were some recent tests in the Philippines involving the Japanese Type-88 anti-ship missile system and the U.S. Typhon launcher. These truck-mounted systems can move throughout the islands, rather than relying on fixed bases.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/43hKnKe

I want to love what I'm learning. To think beyond the basics. To build real skills for the future. To create things that matter. And to see how far I can go. At Blythe Academy, small classes and a boutique approach to private education gives students the support they need to think boldly. Engage in hands-on learning and build the confidence and future-ready skills

that prepare them for university and the world ahead. One community, five campuses, countless opportunities. Register for the spring open house on May 30th at Blythecademy.ca. Hey, all, Peter Zion here coming to you from Chavita in Umbria in Italy. Today we're talking about a couple of events that happened in the Asian Rim in the Philippines, specifically last week. We had two test fires of weapon systems. First, the Japanese launched something called a Type 88 anti-ship missile, and the United States launched something from what's called a typhoon, excuse me, typhoon launcher,

which is basically a tomahawk, those long-range cruise missiles, the U.S. is famous or infamous for based on whether you're a target or not. Both of them launched from the Philippines. Both of these are truck-mounted systems. The Chinese threw a bit of a shit fit, but there's really not all that they can do about them. The issue is two things. Number one, the first island chain, which is the line of islands including Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. They're all at least nominal U.S. allies, but more to the point, they block the Chinese from accessing the wider world,

unless these nations allow it. One of the things that has held up during the Cold War, the post-Cold War era, is that the United States has not reinforced the first island chain because during the Cold War, China was an ally against the Soviet Union, and it's only in the last couple of decades that that has really changed in the last few years where they've become outright hostile, which means that we are now in the early stages of fortifying the island chain, not just the United States of the countries in question,

because if you can install weapons systems that can hit shale, ships, then the Chinese are permanently locked into the lake that is the west side of the island chain. And now that is happening. Second, like I say, we have three things. Second, the weapon systems involved are truck launched, so you don't even need a fixed installation. The Typhon, Tomahawk launcher, you know, has the range of a normal Tomahawk, which could be pushing 1500 miles. And the type 88 is much shorter. It's actually an older system that only has a range of about 100 miles, but they have newer systems that they haven't just put into place in the area right now. But you take the Philippines, which is one of the most erratic,

probably the best word. Countries in the region with the lowest military capability, you have a bunch of trucks running around, some driven by the Japanese, some driven by U.S. Marines, and all of a sudden everything within several hundred miles of the archipelago is completely no-go for Chinese vessels. And that's before you consider more capable states, such as, say, Taiwan. So these two weapons systems are basically enough to completely castrate the entire Chinese military position.

So, of course, the Chinese are kind of losing their minds. Third thing, this is the first time that Japan has tested an offensive weapon system outside of the home islands since World War II. The Japanese were forced by the United States in the aftermath of the war to have permanent neutrality, and that is now rapidly eroding away. And if you take a country that has the second most capable navy in the planet, You allow them to start stationing military assets outside of their country. It doesn't matter really what the relationship with the United States happens to be. The Chinese aren't going anywhere.

So we've now had a very, very clear example of what can happen with these new systems or even the old systems. Something to keep in mind. There are a number of countries in the world that operating all by themselves that have the ability to completely destroy the Chinese economy because they can, interfere with any sort of corporate shipping. China is the most dependent country in the world on globalization because they import a lot of their food. They import the inputs. They need to grow their own food. They import the raw materials they need to make their manufactured goods and then they

have to export the manufactured goods to pay for it all. You interrupt the sea lanes and it all falls apart. So Japan and the United States obviously have the direct naval power to do that whenever they want to. Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia do because they control the straits that allow the Chinese to access Middle Eastern crude and European end markets. The Australians have weapons systems that can reach that entire zone as well. And now the freaking Philippines has a bunch of dudes running around on trucks that are getting weapons systems so that they can do it too. The degree to which the Chinese are in a box here is immense. So it really doesn't matter from my point of view what happens with demographics or relations with the United States or

globalization in general. Every time you look at this from a fresh angle, you're screwed. And the state media really realizes that, which is why they're having such an energetic rejection of what's going on right now. On the Japanese side, this is barely even talked about.

They're just kind of snick in the background. Anyway, that's it for me for today. Until next time. I want to love what I'm learning. To think beyond the basics. To build real skills for the future. To create things that matter. And to see how far I can go.

Academy, small classes and a boutique approach to private education give students the support they need to think boldly, engage in hands-on learning, and build the confidence and future-ready skills that prepare them for university and the world ahead. One community, five campuses, countless opportunities. Register for the spring open house on May 30th at blitheacademy.ca.ca.