The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - The U.S. Navy Goes Down Under || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: February 18, 2026

The U.S. is turning to the Aussies for some help with stationing four American submarines at Stirling in a hedge against potential future conflicts with China.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MknGjZ

Everybody, Peter Zine here coming here from Colorado, and today we're going to talk about the U.S. Navy deployment plans for the Pacific. Specifically, the U.S. Navy has announced that it's going to be working with the Australians to expand their naval facility at the Stirling Base, which is on an island just outside of Perth. For those of you who don't read or know Australian geography, almost everybody in Australia lives in the southeastern kind of crescent, but all the way in the far west, all by itself, is Perth. So it's kind of in the middle of nowhere, both the city and the base, and that's from the Navy's point of view kind of the point. If, if, if there is a meaningful military conflict with the Chinese, the Navy's concern is its current forward military base at Guam could come under missile attack. And if the Chinese get a few shots through the missile defense at the island, then the ability of using Guam in order to project power in the direction of the Asian mainland would be destroyed, and they would have to. to fall back to Pearl Harbor. So the idea is if you permanently station four of America's submarines out in the Indian Ocean near Perth, then that is well beyond any range possibility that the Chinese

have. So this is both very smart and perhaps a little dumb. First, the smart. Anytime you can disperse your forces and maintain reach would be really a robust idea. So the overall concept of having a second facility in that corner of the world. Makes perfect sense. The Australians are about the best allies and most loyal allies we have. Hard to come up with a better spot if your goal is to have it beyond the range. Second, the dumb part. It's really beyond the range.

Perth is near nothing. And there is no way you could use naval forces in that area to project power to strike at China directly what it could do. It's a good strike Chinese shipping in the Indian Ocean and up into Southeast Asia to the Strait of Malacca. And so one of the things that I've been saying for a very long time is that in a war with the Chinese, I'm really not overly concerned because they're dependent on international trade. We're not.

We have a global navy. They don't. You put those two together in any hot war, the easiest way to destroy China, not the military of China, China, the country. It's just to stop the shipping. Of the stuff that doesn't go to the United States, which obviously would be shut down, about 80% of their energy flows come through the Indian Ocean Basin from the Persian Gulf. about half of their food flows, and about 80% of their manufacturing good flows go through the same route.

So if you put some naval assets in Sterling, in case of a hot war, we now have a forward missile base that could shut it all down in a matter of days and weeks. Just keep in mind that this is a different sort of conflict. If you're going to put subs to do it, you are not taking over the oil tankers or the cargo ships. You're just sinking them. That would be really, really colorful. Anyway, the other other problem is that if Guam is taken out, then there really isn't a series of stepping stones to get to Perth. So whatever is operating there is going to be more or less on their own unless they decide to go quiet and cross the Pacific the long way. So any assets there will be exposed.

It's not that this is a bad plan. It's laying the groundwork for a very specific sort of action that is sure. the global system is broken beyond repair. I would argue we're getting there anyway, but starting to put teeth in a place where it would force that to happen gets my attention in a way that I'm not entirely excited about.