The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Things I (Do and Don't) Worry About: Global Internet || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

This is probably the scariest video I've posted for any of my Gen Z audience...that's right, we're talking about the one thing they can't live without - the internet. So, just how vulnerable is the global internet? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-do-and-dont-worry-about-global-internet

Hey everybody, Peter Zine, coming to you from Colorado. Today is our latest entry in our ongoing series of things I do and don't worry about, and this one is both. Has to do with trans-oceanic cables, which connect the continents in terms of the Internet. We basically have a highly sequestered and fragmented system in North America, South America, Africa, Western Eurasia, and South Asia, and Southeast Asia. All of these things are barely linked. together and to the degree that they are that goes through a series of cables that go through

predictable routes. So obviously North America and South America are separate from the rest of the world by the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean, but they're also separated from each other with the Panamanian Isma being the only point of connection. And there's a section called the Darien Gap that has no roads, no rail, no pipe, no power. In terms of separating Europe from China, the Russian space has become a lot less reliable of late. And so while there are still cables that cross that zone, they're not nearly as capable, as reliable as they used to be. There's no connections between the Middle East and Africa because it goes through Israel, and that's a connection that cannot be made.

And then South Asia and Southeast Asia have reasonable connections. Southeast Asia and China have reasonable connections, but the Himalayas stop any direct connections between South Asia and, say, China. And then, of course, countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are either literal islands or functional islands. So it doesn't take a particular genius to find these cables and cut them as the Houthis have already shown

that they're willing to do for some of the connections between Southern Asia and Europe. They're routes that go through the ocean, through the Gulf of Aden, through the Bab Elm and Deb, and the Red Sea before crossing Suez and going on to Europe.

So we've got this fractured system of five or to eight based on how you draw the line for connectivity systems that are linked by just a handful of cables. So it doesn't take much genius to basically break down international trade and services. The only way you could get things if the cables go down is something like Starlink, which is less than 4% of international traffic. Now that said, that is hard to disrupt because there's hundreds of Starlink satellites,

with more going up every week. If we ever get into a situation where the United States is in an information war, where targets that transmit information being targeted, you can guarantee that Starlink's going to be nationalized as one of the first acts of the U.S. government. We're not there yet, thank God. Anyway, that's the part I do worry about. What part I don't worry about is if we ever really are in a hot war with the near peer power, say, for example, China, it's not just would-be disruptors like the Houthis who know where these cables are. The U.S. government knows where each and every one of them is.

In fact, they're on maps. So if we get to a situation where there's kind of a mass hacking attack from China, all we have to do is go out and cut the cables, because let's be honest. if we're in a real war, the last thing that Washington is going to be concerned about is whether or not internet connectivity and emails going back and forth across the Pacific at a high speed. So this is something that is very easy to disrupt, and as long as you're interested in a world that works together,

that's bad. But if we ever get to the point where it's obvious that the world is not working together, it's good because it means it's easy to bring down in a matter of just a few days.