The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Trump's Political Capital Bonfire || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: February 6, 2025

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanIf you want to access to all the videos as soon as they are released, be sure to join the Patreon. Trump has used up a lot of paper in his first 10 days in office, but he hasn't spent much time working with Congress to make his executive orders stick.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-political-capital-bonfire

Hey, all, Peter Zion here. It's almost question time, which is when Patreon members at the analyst level can submit their awkward, painful, pointed questions to me directly. So if you haven't gotten your question in, do it now. And if you haven't signed up for our analyst level, do that now. Because anyone who signs up this month for the next quarter, any money that you would have given me goes to a charity that we've identified, the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank. So, you know, get the tax deduction and help me, help them help you keep the ports open so you can still get your crap. All right, see you tomorrow. Hi, it's Michael. I'm in for Peter, who unfortunately is feeling a little under the weather

and has lost the use of his voice. All about to watch a video that Peter recorded earlier today about the executive orders that the Trump administration is issuing. The order in question that is the main focus of this video has in those few hours since been rescinded. But we are going to continue to share this video, because we think that the analysis and conclusions in it ultimately stirring true, and the potential for chaos and confusion that Peter highlights obviously

was shared by enough stakeholders both inside and outside of the government that the White House has decided to reevaluate their approach. So if that, feel better, Peter, and we hope you enjoy the video. Hey, everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from Colorado, where I am rapidly losing my voice. We're about 10 days into the new Trump administration, and all, it's been showy, but it's not clear to me that anything has really changed. Donald Trump has issued dozens. Are we up to hundreds now?

I've kind of lost track of short executive orders claiming a lot of stuff, asserting a lot of stuff. But not once. He's actually asked for anything from Congress. And keep in mind that the U.S. presidency cannot raise funds or really even transfer funds from one agency. to another so he can squeeze the blob a little bit. But without congressional action, not a lot can happen. But in doing so, Donald Trump has picked a lot of fights that didn't need to be picked, and he's really gone after the core of what a lot of people consider their political identity to be without a lot of immediate payback. So let me give you an example of this. Donald Trump's made a

very big deal about going after illegal migrants, especially those with criminal records, which I don't think, especially on the criminal records thing, anyone has a real problem with. But from talking with agents that are within immigration and customs enforcement, there's no money that comes with these directives. What has happened is other law enforcement branches of the federal government have been redirected to assist ICE in whatever they're doing and going after these people. So you get folks from like the pure up tobacco on firearms or the FBI or whether or now collaborating and cooperating with ICE in their roundup operations. And that's all well and good, but keep in mind that anyone who's helping immigration and customs

enforcement going after illegals is not doing what they were doing before. So they're not investigating financial fraud. They're not investigating smuggling. So the blob has been squeezed and we have more resources going to a specific task and it has generated a few thousand arrests. But it's come at the cost of everything else just kind of flying by the wayside. Now, any middle school advisor to Donald Trump would have been able to. to warn him that this is exactly what was going to happen. But over the last four years, rather than build up a legislative block that he wants to push through in order to generate a real durable

change in the American system, he has since instead purged himself of anyone who might not just tell him no, but yes, but. And as a result, he's got this shell of dense incompetence around him now, where no one will tell him anything other than exactly what he wants to hear. And so we've get these scads of just very, very brief executive orders that really don't move anything. Another example is recently Donald Trump signed another brief executive order to establish an Iron Dome system around the United States. Now, Iron Dome is the missile defense system that the Israelis use to protect themselves from mortars and rockets. Keep in mind that Israel is about the size of New Jersey and the weapon systems that are being launched at them are very, very, very short-range

ballistic, nothing like what the United States has to deal with in the mainland. So if we were to spend the approximately $40 trillion that it would take to build up a nationwide Iron Dome system, all it would do is protect Detroit from Hamilton, Canada, and San Diego from Tijuana. Everything else is too far away. It's the wrong weapon system. But of course, there's no money behind this because it's an executive order. So it just looks really silly to anyone who knows anything about missile defense or the border. picking a lot of fights with a lot of people that don't need to be picked. We had a two-page executive order from Trump a few days ago that shut down the distribution of all grants,

about $3 trillion of funds, most of which are distributed through the states or through private or nonprofit organizations. And this is everything from the small business administration to meals on wheels. And according to the directive, until such time as everyone can indicate that they're complying with the new regulations and attitude, what's the right word, orientation, I think is the word, that Donald Trump is trying to establish the money can't be distributed, but it's a temporary hold of three months. Well, there was no guidance in that two pages to basically regulate three trillion dollars of distribution, and so it's all been shut down, which means in the not too distant future, you're looking at like, you know, dead old people

because Meals on Wheels isn't working. I mean, these are unpicked fights. These are unforced errors. But Donald Trump is making a lot of them and burning a lot of capital to do it very, very quickly. There could also be damage on an international scale because he's done basically the same thing with an executive order, very short, very brief,

very few details, shutting down any foreign aid that requires dollar transfers, which is, with the exception of some military assistance, almost all of it. So we've seen the U.S. global position diplomatically and strategically basically frozen. And we've seen the U.S. domestic position when it comes to the interface between the population and the government in anything except for entitlements basically frozen with no clear guidelines as to what's next or what the parameters

might be and Congress has yet to be involved at all. These are not the sort of mistakes that a second term president should be making, but they are being made by the dozens. And it's unclear on the other side of this, how much Donald Trump's political capital will remain, because he's going through it at a pace that I have never seen by any leader in any country in modern history. But I got to admit, there's a show, and it's entertaining.