The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Ukraine War Q&A Series: The Canal Controlling the Crimean Peninsula || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: May 30, 2023

There's a canal that runs from Kherson to the Crimean Peninsula and serves as the area's sole irrigation water source. And with how dry the region is, this canal is critical to the Crimean Peninsula. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-qa-series-canal

Hey everyone, Peter Zeyen, coming to you from home. Got another episode of our Ukraine Q&A series. Specifically, this relates to a forecast that I made back in the fall in the aftermath of the Kyrson offensive. The issue is that there is a canal that provides irrigation water that starts in the central parts of Kiersen province, goes south to the Crimean Peninsula, and then is the sole source of irrigation water for the entire peninsula. The area is historically very dry, and while you might be able to grow a little bit of weak there, in a normal year, everything else has to be irrigated, and honestly, the wheat can use it too. Now, the sluice gate that controls the flows is on the south side of the Nieper River between the cities of Kakova and Nova Kakova, and it drains water from the Kakova reservoir.

So, you know, it's easy to remember all the names on this one. What the Russians have been doing is running that canal full bore for most of the winter in order to fill up all of their downstream reservoirs in Crimea itself. Now, all of those reservoirs combined are like a drop in the bucket compared to what can come out of the Niebuhr, and it's not enough for irrigation if the sluice gate is closed. It would be enough to supply drinking water to the populations of Crimea, but none for irrigation at all. Now, the Ukrainians are saying that until they take over a Novakukov and Kakova, that there's really no conversation to be had about the canal, but we are probably nearing the point where that's going to be relevant.

But if the Ukrainians were due to a direct assault on those cities across the river, that probably wouldn't go all that well because the Russians have deep supply lines and the Ukrainians would have to cross a river without a bridge. More likely the Ukraine is going to be operating further east, where they'll go east and river altogether and go straight south from Zappernica province. But there are reasons to think that the Ukrainians might prioritize hitting that slu-skate, even if they don't intend to capture it. The single biggest one is because of power.

The Zappar meets a nuclear power plant, that one that keeps getting in the news because of shelling, draws all of its coolant water from the Kakova Reservoir, and the Russians have been deliberately draining that reservoir as fast as they can, faster than the river can refill it. Now, because there's so little capacity in the Crimean system to hold water, they're probably just dumping the water somewhere into the ocean, but I don't have access to live feed satellite technology, in a war zone, so I don't exactly know where.

But that's probably happening somewhere. They wouldn't be put it into the fields because this is planting season, and that would prevent them from, you know, getting any food at all. Anyway, if that plant goes offline, it's going to be a problem for any number of future Ukrainian operations because it is the primary source of electricity for that entire area and the entirety of the Ukrainian steel belt. But if the canal was taken offline, even temporarily,

not only do you trigger a crisis in Crimea because, you know, there's a food issue, You also trigger potentially a nuclear meltdown crisis. There's another reason to expect the Ukrainians to do this sooner rather than later, because we're about to have Crimea cut off. If the Zaporinia offensive proceeds, basically going straight down for roughly the nuclear power plant towards the sea of is off, the Ukrainians will be an easy range of every road and rail connection between Russia proper and the Crimean Peninsula,

and they'll be able to cut them all off. You do that at the same time, you cut the canal, and this is an area that's completely on its own. Two and a half million people and some of the best military units the Russians have. So the strategic rationale for this move remains very, very strong. The only question is how high up on the priority list is it for Kiev? Because they can't just flip a switch. They actually have to go in and do something.

Doesn't mean that they won't, just that there are other things competing for their attention right now. All right, that's it for me. See you guys next time.