The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Ukraine's Waiting Game: Zelensky's Quest for NATO Membership || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: July 13, 2023

As the NATO summit in Vilnius wraps up, we're left with a result that was more or less expected. Ukraine won't be getting called up to the big leagues anytime soon, but it's not all bad news for Zelensky... Note: This video was recorded back in June, but it helps paint a picture of what is going down at the NATO summit. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraines-waiting-game-zelenskys-quest-for-nato-membership

Hey everybody, Peter Zine here coming to you from the Monterey Airport. Thunderstorms in Denver have delayed my departure, which means I'm stuck here for an extra four hours, and I'm going to get to know the bartender very well. But I figured I might as well record some thoughts since I had the time. On the topic of waiting in the wings for other people to make a damn decision, but it was a good time to talk about NATO membership and the case of Ukraine. Now, the NATO alliance is built by a series of countries, that have unanimously agreed to look out for one another's as security.

And that is something that has never happened in a multilateral environment before. Most security agreements that exist on the planet today and throughout human history have been at most bilateral packs where countries are willing to back away. It's only Article 5 of the NATO alliance that actually legally binds countries to look out for one another. Now, obviously, that's the theory and practice can be somewhat different. But the issue is that this is all. always been the best security guarantee among countries at any point in human history. And Ukraine once in. And there was a great joke going on last year when the Ukrainians were doing

a great job against the Russians, like, you know, that NATO is seeking membership in Ukraine, whether the other way or out. The conversation is again started up about what might be necessary for the Ukrainians to actually join NATO. Let me start with the punchline. Not this year, not next year, not the year after, not the year after that. for Ukraine to join NATO. One of the core issues, it has to be that you don't have a border dispute with any of your neighbors. And that eliminates Ukraine right off the bat. Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the Russians are certainly going to have some quibbles with the Ukrainians when it comes to where the international border is.

And until that has resolved one way or another, this is completely off the table. That was true for the Italians back in the immediate post-World War II environment. That has been true for the Croatians and the post-Yugoslav war scenarios. And that is true for the Ukrainians today. There's the second issue that while NATO was formed to keep the Russians at arm's length, NATO is not like giddy about the possibility of getting into a slug fest with a nuclear power. And so as long again as we have these hostilities going on between Ukraine and Russia, it's not that the NATO countries aren't going to put their finger on the scale and try to adjust the outcome.

No, that's not what I'm saying at all. But they don't want to get directly involved, and an Article 5 guarantee would guarantee that NATO immediately goes into a state of general war. So, if you're Ukraine, I'm afraid you have to take what you can get and do what you can do on your own. NATO is there. NATO is helping. But the Article 5 guarantee, that is years ahead. and even if Russia were to be defeated completely tomorrow and its fangs removed so it could never launch another war again only then could NATO begin the process of its 30-odd members

actually going through the accession process and that all by itself is another five years. All right, I'll see you in, I don't know, like 20 minutes or something.