The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - U.S. Ground Troops Coming to Iran || Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: April 2, 2026

The U.S. is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran. Marines from the USS Tripoli and Boxer, as well as elements from the 82nd Airborne, could be looped in. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/40RY3L0

Hey, Al, Peter Zine here, come to you March 25th from Inside the House in Colorado because a false alarm, I'm not getting better. I'm sicker. Anyway, I'm going to talk about Iran today, specifically what's going on with ground troops, which looks like they're absolutely going to be used. This is a bad idea from any number of manners, but let me give you an idea of what's in play and what it might be used for, and we'll go from there. So, as you may remember, the USS Tripoli, that's one of America's amphibious assault carriers, carries a clutch of F-35 fighter jets, as well as 2,000 to 2,500 Marines, relocated from the Philippines Sea and is sailing through the Indian Ocean now, it will probably arrive in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf in the next day or two. We also have the USS Boxer, which is another M-EU, Marine Expedition Air Unit. That's basically what the Tripoli is. which has left San Diego, it will not be an area for probably close to three weeks. But the news from yesterday is that the 82nd Airborne, which is kind of America's rapid reaction force,

troops that are run by the army that are mated with permanent transport aircraft that can deploy to anywhere in the world in less than 48 hours. They were given their marching orders to move to the Middle East last night. And we'll probably, well, they could be moving right now. You know, all hush, hush classified. But when the orders are given, it's usually not too long until they're on their way. Collectively, in three weeks, this means we have about 8,000 troops in the region, and they're really heavy hitters. Basically, unless you're going to move into special operations, the Marines and the airborne are about as good as they get.

Without having armor, that's something else that's important to note. So this is not a traditional ground invasion where we're driving tanks and using artillery. This would be a relatively light force that punches above its weight for what it is, but is not designed to take on another major force. Keep in mind that the Iranians don't have another major force, so that should be fine in that regard. They may have a million-man army, but it's primarily designed to shoot civilians rather than swarm over foreign countries. Now, the news is going on and on and on and on about something called Karg Island, as someone is, highlighted Karg Island 15 years ago. Part of me is like, yay, finally. But I really doubt that's the target. Or more than the point, I really doubt that that should be the target.

Karg Island is a small facility off the western coast of southwestern Iran. It's up in the northern Gulf. It doesn't have a bridge to it. It was built by foreigners and it has a subsea pipeline that basically carries all Persian Gulf crude to it because the Persian Gulf Coast is really, really bad to accept tankers. It's just very shallow and muddy. So they have this island out where they can accept tankers. And it is the point for 90% plus of Iran's oil exports. And what we've seen in the war so far is that the United States came in completely unprepared for the idea that something might happen to the Persian Gulf and really didn't have the hardware or the positioning in place to protect ships in the Gulf or make sure that the Iranians couldn't attack ships in the

golf. So everyone's now focusing on CARG and the logic seems to be that Donald Trump wants to make another fucking deal. And the idea is that if the United States occupies Carg Island, then Trump will have a negotiating card to play against Iran elsewhere. So we will give you Carg Island back if you stop attacking places in the Gulf, specifically if you allow the Strait of Hormuz to be open. I will tell you bluntly, and anyone who studies the Middle East will tell you bluntly, and that that will not work, because that will remove Iran's oil income, and then the gloves will really come off. And as we've seen when the Israelis attacked a natural gas processing facility last week, the Iranians had more than enough weapons left to open up on infrastructure of the Gulf,

and they did well over $100 billion of damage in a matter of hours. you would probably get something like that. In addition, Karg Island is not going to be easy to defend. One of the things the United States has been doing is its carriers haven't even come in the Gulf. One has been off in the Arabian Sea. The other one has been off in the Red Sea. They've been fighting Iran at distance. If you're going to put a few thousand troops in Karg, you're going to need close in support.

And it is within 30 miles of the coast. And the Iranians will hit it with everything they have because the ability hit several thousand American troops with limited defenses right up and close. Oh man, they've been waiting for a situation like that the entire war. It would basically be putting them in the most vulnerable way you could imagine. Now like I said, anyone who knows anything about this region or royal politics or how defenses work would have told the president that this isn't how things go, but the president isn't being told anything. The people in the Department of Energy and the DOD who were responsible for studying things like choke points and the Strait of Hormuz specifically, we're all

fired last year. And the same goes for basically any sort of strategic planning or think work. Pete Hagseth, the Secretary of Defense, has been going on a crusade in his. Anything that does not actively support the warfighters being cut out of the Department of the Defense. And that removes all education that would allow people to make educated decisions about, say, what you do in war. So when I say that this is a Donald Trump plan, this is a Donald Trump plan, this is a Donald Trump plan. He's no longer allowing information to reach him with the possible exception of through Dean Kane, who's joint chiefs of staff. And that's about the only voice of caution he's yet. And so far he has overruled Kane on really everything of substance. So if this is where

we're going, this is going to end in a bit of a debacle. The only other thing that I can think of were 8,000 troops that are heavy on the amphibious component might be of use is in the straightforward moves itself. If you put Marines and Airborne in that area and enable them to do land strikes, rapid and then retreat, land strikes up and down the Strait of Hormuz, you can probably limit the ability of Iran to launch attacks on civilian tankers. And since the United States doesn't have the ships, doesn't have the hardware to do a meaningful convoy system, this might be the next best plan.

It's not a great one. I would find it much more viable than, say, going after car. That's my two cents. Anyway, that's where we are right now. The Tripoli will arrive within 48 hours, and the 8th second could be there at the same time. So if you only feel you need two-thirds of these forces, you get going on it right away. If you decide you need the full 8,000, you have to wait for the boxer to arrive. And that will not be until the second week of April.

Anyway, pieces are moving so that these options are available. Whether they are used, of course, depends upon what Trump feels, because that's all that matters in this war.