The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series - Why Are the French Getting Involved with Armenia? || Ask Peter Zeihan

Episode Date: May 24, 2024

Today we'll be looking at why the French are considering sending military aid to Armenia...and no, its not because they're looking to swap croissant and nazook recipes. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-are-the-french-getting-involved-with-armenia

France recently has been entering conversations about military assistance or age or supply to Armenia. France famously has a large Armenian expat population, but NATO, the EU, very broadly, have deep energy trade, modernization ties with Azerbaijan. Is there a future quagmire facing the individual element of EU member states? The EAS an organization, NATO membership, with what seems to be an intensifying conflict between Armenia-Azerijan. This is purely a difference issue. NATO's academic and involved in the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue. If anything, it's going to be decided by which direction the two other powers in the region

decide to go Iran and Turkey. In the case of Iran, they don't bring a lot to the table anymore, especially if the Russians are out and the Russians are out. The Turks obviously have a partnership and an ethnic relationship with the Azerbaijani's, and that is getting more robust by the day. And Azerbaijan has proven to be a wonderful testbed for Turkish drone technology, which has absolutely obliterated any strategic independence that the Armenians may have once had. So the French basically are playing a little bit of a double game. The French have lost their position in West Africa, which from a strategic and an economic point of view, is no big loss, but it was a hit to the prestige, and they absolutely blamed the Russians

and absolutely accurately blamed the Russians for that. So now the French are in the process of doing a strategic realignment. And that means, first and foremost, to take a good, hard look at the interests of the country that are causing them to do that, and that is the Russians. So the French are considering putting troops in Ukraine very seriously in order to provide a bulwark for the Ukrainians and most importantly for the French to learn about. all these changes in technology. As we saw with the Azerbaijani, Armenia War of late, as well as the Ukraine war,

drones are the new thing, and the French have no experience with that. So in both of these theaters, that's one of the things they've got their eyes on. In terms of the Caucasus, the French have a little bit more room to maneuver there than say the Germans or the Italians because they're not dependent upon

Azerbaijan energy at all. And we are seeing, a rising what's the right here interaction of Turkish interests and French interests because as the United States

steps back from a lot of things the Eastern Med becomes a potential zone of competition and if that turns harsh the French are going to want some cards to play on another friend Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Caucasus plays into that.

I'm not saying that these two powers have to not get along. I'm saying that they need to figure out whether they're going to get along or not. and France establishing a few flags in the ground in Armenia is a way to do that. Doesn't mean they're going to be hostile. It means they're going to be rubbing up against each other more often.

And this is preparation.