The Philip DeFranco Show - PDS 11.2 Ok... Last Chance To Talk About This, And Its More Important and Involved Than Most Realize

Episode Date: November 2, 2018

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Sup you beautiful bastards, hope you're having a fantastic Friday. Welcome back to the Philip DeFranco Show and today We're gonna focus on one thing, but it's also several things. The midterm elections are here, voting is this upcoming Tuesday And there are a lot of candidates running for a lot of seats all across the country In fact, there are 435 seats in the House, another 35 up in the Senate, 36 governorships all for grabs And there's even some other stuff we're gonna jump into. With that said, hopefully today what we accomplish is we help you understand what races are important, what the implications of those races could have in the future, and why you should care about races in states you don't even live in. Now with that said, the first thing we're gonna hit on before we just get into the weeds is the concept of the blue wave, or some people have referred to it as the blue puddle.

But most likely you've probably heard that first term used a lot in the media. Blue wave. Blue wave. Blue wave. Blue wave. All I can see is a huge blue wave. A blue tsunami. So what does it mean?

What does it have to do with this year's midterms? What does the success or failure of it do? Right now, the House, the Senate, and the presidency are of course all controlled by Republicans. And the blue wave is a term that's been used to describe the potential of Democrats winning back more seats and sweeping Republicans from power. And if it did in fact happen,

it would have a massive impact on the second half of President Trump's term. At the base level, it would mean he just has fewer allies, which makes it tougher for him to move forward on policies, agendas, other plans he might have. And there are also other specific issues and possibilities that change depending on House or Senate. But the main thing here is Republicans obviously do not want this to happen, and for them that means this election is all about maintaining as many seats as possible. Although when we look to the Senate, which we will in a minute, there is the possibility they can do more than maintain. Now with all of that in mind, let's look at the House of Representatives first and the important races that are happening there. So the House, like I said, all 435 seats there are up for grabs.

That of course because representatives only serve two-year terms, whether it be a midterm or a general, they're there. And with that 435, right now in the House you have 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and seven vacancies. Now what's not great for Republicans here is that historically the party that holds the White House almost always loses some seats in the midterm election. And not helping things out for them is that as especially true to your president's first term where the president's approval rating is below 50%. And right now Trump's approval rating is around the low 40s.

But then looking at the situation from the Democrats point of view, obviously it's all about picking up seats and that specific number is 23. They need to pick up 23 more seats to get that majority. What are the chances this could actually happen? Well, FiveThirtyEight currently says that there is an 82.7% chance that Democrats take back the House. For those unfamiliar with FiveThirtyEight, it's a polling aggregate website, so it means they don't conduct the polls,

instead they just aggregate or average them. And also the science behind their methodology could easily be a whole video series. So that's the generalized situation there, and then we look to the Senate. The Senate is far different from the House, and the biggest obstacle for the Democrats if they wanted a full blue wave. For starters, unlike the House, all seats are not up for grabs. In fact, only 35 seats in the Senate are up for re-election this year. That's because Senators actually serve six-year terms, and when it comes to re-election, those terms are staggered into groups of three. Right, and so what that means is every election, one-third of the Senate is up for grabs. But also, secondly, there's a closer divide in the Senate than the House. Right now, there are 51 Republicans in the Senate, 47 Democrats, and two Independents.

And those two Independents are Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine, although they do caucus with the Democratic Party. So if you wanted to keep things simple, you want to lump them in, it's 51 to 49 now. Now you may look at those numbers, 51 to 49, and you may be thinking, Phil, that seems way easier for the Democrats to flip. Especially considering the Democrats have some lockdown races with people like Mazie Hirono in Hawaii and Kirsten Gillibrand in New York. But no, in fact, FiveThirtyEight currently says there's only a 14.7% chance Democrats can take control of the Senate. But, even with those odds, there are still a lot of hotly contested races all across the country. Especially in places like Tennessee, Arizona, North Dakota, Nevada, Missouri, and Indiana. But really, none of the close races have received as much attention as the one going on in Texas.

And that's where current Republican Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Ted Cruz is taking on Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke. And polling here has fluctuated, but has in general been very tight. And that's been incredibly surprising for many people watching because Texas has traditionally been a deep red state. And in fact, Texas has voted to send a Republican to the White House, US Senate, and Governor's Office in every statewide election since 1994. Although as of recording this video, 538 says that O'Rourke only has a 1 in 5 chance. But even with that, it's been very interesting to see the swings in some of the places this year. But with that said we should also then talk about the races for governor. There are 36 governors races this year and you at this point might be like why are we talking about governors?

It's all about Congress. Well actually yes and no. What governors do is incredibly important but even some of the races for governor this year will play a role in future elections. And here's how. In 2020 the United States will conduct a census. A census is something that happens every 10 years. It's mandated by the US Constitution. And simply the goal is to count the population of the United States. And then two years after the census happens,

so that's 2022, states will be able to redistrict. So what does that mean? Well, the census will provide states with more information on what their population looks like. And then using that information, states may decide they wanna redraw their congressional districts to better reflect their population. And in addition to general reasons, may decide they want to redraw their congressional districts to better reflect their population.

And in addition to general reasons, the state could also want to redraw their district after the census because of something called gerrymandering. In the past, we've talked about gerrymandering. You might remember our coverage of Pennsylvania a few months ago. But as a quick refresher, it's basically a practice of drawing districts in a specific way to give a particular party a political advantage. And it's a hot-button issue in a lot of states right now. In fact, 12 states have been the subject of litigation relating to the fairness of their maps this year. Those states being Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And of those 12 states,

these nine have governor's races this year. If a state decides they do want to redraw congressional districts, whether it be because of changes in the population or because of gerrymandering, the new districts are usually, but not always, drawn by the state's legislature. And once the state's legislature redraws new districts, the governor comes into play because he or she can veto the redrawn districts.

And governors in every state except for two, New Hampshire and Vermont, serve four-year terms. And so that means the governors that are elected this year will be the ones who can hold veto power for potentially newly redrawn districts in 2022. So simply put, that's why governors elected this year could have a huge influence on what elections look like in the future. And that's not just limited to the nine states I previously mentioned, so paying attention to governors races matters. And that then brings us to, fucking John Oliver ruined this for me, attorneys general races, AG races. This is another aspect of the midterms that's super important, but is definitely getting in general a lot less coverage. And as a quick explainer, attorneys general act as a state's chief legal officer, meaning they are responsible for enforcing state laws and advising the state's government on legal matters.

And in many states, AGs play a large role in the law enforcement process too. But also over the past 30 to 40 years, what we've seen are attorneys general actively suing the federal government. And these federal lawsuits have often been multi-state lawsuits where attorneys general team up and file together. And some have also argued that these multi-state lawsuits have become pretty partisan in nature. And there's some evidence to suggest that if we just look at the numbers. From 2009 to 2017, Republican AGs brought 46 multi-state lawsuits against the federal government during the Obama administration.

And on the other side of this, just in 2017 alone, Democrat AGs filed a whopping 35 multi-state lawsuits against the federal government. And so that brings us to the question, what do these lawsuits against the federal government look like? And what does the breakdown of attorneys general look like when you break it down to Republicans and Democrats?

Well, right now Republicans actually control a majority of the attorneys general offices. They have 27 offices, Democrats control another 22, and there's one independent held in Alaska. This is big for Republicans because this is the most they've ever had in the last 30 years. And these Republicans have in part used their control to protect Trump's policies and plans. For example, in February, 20 states filed a lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act. And that suit claimed that including key provisions like protections for people with pre-existing conditions was unconstitutional. So whichever way the power shift goes this year, it could have a huge impact on the second half of Trump's term.

Because while we see lawsuits like that one, we also see Democratic Attorney Generals fighting back against Trump's agenda pretty aggressively. Seeing those multi-state lawsuits on a variety of issues, those including immigration, to the environment, to birth control. And so where does that leave us in this election? Well, both parties have poured in tons of money this year. There's some estimates saying that Democrats and Republicans will spend more than 100 million dollars on their Attorney General campaigns. And that's two to three times more than has ever been spent on Attorney General races before. But keep in mind, that is on only 30 AG races. And also of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 12 are held by Democrats.

And when we look even closer, there are eight states that have really tight races right now. And of those eight tight races, seven of them are currently held by Republicans. The states where Democrats could make gains, you have Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin. And in the tight race where Republicans could gain a spot, you have Minnesota. And also, if you're in any of those states, here are some names you should care about. I'll leave them on the screen for a second so you can look at it, recognize it, because I'm trying to save as much as po- I'm losing my voice right now. You got it? Great. And with that said, I still want to take a closer look at one of these races, so let's look into Minnesota. And we're not just gonna look into this race because it's the one tight race where Republicans could potentially flip. It's because the state has actually had a Democrat in the AG seat since 1971. And Minnesota is a state that has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1976. But Minnesota's current AG, Democrat Lori Swanson, who has held the seat since 2010, is now stepping down so she can run for governor.

But we're talking about it now because this year Republicans have a real shot in the state, and it's not just because they're not going against an incumbent. It's in part thanks to a scandal Democratic candidate Keith Ellison has been caught up in. But before we get into that scandal, let's talk about the Republican who's running. And that is Doug Wardlow, who served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013. Also before that, he served as a law clerk for Justice G. Barry Anderson in the Minnesota Supreme Court. He's also worked in the private sector, litigating for Alliance Defending Freedom.

They're a Christian nonprofit that focuses on cases related to constitutional protections for religious freedom. Wardlow has also been endorsed by the Minneapolis Police Union. One of the main issues his campaign is focused on is illegal immigration, particularly sanctuary cities. Well, they are dangerous because every crime committed by an illegal immigrant in the United States

or in Minnesota is a crime that is 100% preventable. That person shouldn't be here. And so it's important that cities cooperate with federal law enforcement. Also saying that he wants to focus on state issues instead of federal ones. And so he's been using that to differentiate himself from Ellison. Wardlow has said Ellison wants to use the office to wage a political war. But with that said, let's take a closer look at Keith Ellison. Ellison has worked as a civil rights lawyer for 16 years.

He's currently the deputy chairman of the Democratic National Committee, a position he has held since February of last year. Before that, Ellison was elected to the House of Representatives. He was the first Muslim member of Congress. He's served as one of the chief deputy whips of the Democratic Caucus, and he's been endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders. When it comes to issues, Ellison has talked about wanting a fair economy, saying that he would hold large corporations and the powerful accountable by taking on wage theft, fighting for higher wages, going against student loan scammers, protecting seniors from fraud. Also focusing on healthcare, saying among other things he wants to defend the ACA. And unlike Wardlow, Ellison has said he does want to focus on national issues.

But, as I mentioned earlier, there is a scandal and a lot of controversy here. It's something that happened days before the Minnesota primary. Back in August, Karen Monahan, Ellison's ex-girlfriend, accused the congressman of physical and emotional abuse. And here she is in her first on-camera interview talking about these allegations. He walked in. He said, I need you to take the trash out. And I kept, because I was on my stomach. I heard him, and I just went like that and shook my head.

And he looked at me, goes, hey, you hear me? And then he looked at me. He goes, bitch, get the out of my house. And he started trying to drag me off the bed. That's when I put my camera on to video him." Now following this, Ellison admitted that he was in a relationship with her, but he denied the abuse allegations.

Also after Monaghan came forward, Minnesota's Democratic Farmer Labor Party also hired an attorney to investigate the incident. And back in the beginning of October, the Democratic investigation said that Monaghan's claims were unsubstantiated. And they said they came to that conclusion because the investigators never saw the video footage of the assault Monaghan claimed to have. And according to the Associated Press, Monaghan offered several reasons why the video could not be viewed.

With the outlet saying, in her report, Ellingstad, that's the attorney Democrats hired, noted Monaghan's shifting rationale for refusing to produce the video footage. Including that it was lost, on a USB drive-in storage, or that it was too embarrassing and traumatic to release. But also a thing of note here is this isn't the first time Ellison has been accused of domestic violence. In 2006, another ex-girlfriend of Ellison's, Amy Alexander, she claimed that he pushed her, shoved her, and verbally abused her.

Ellison also denied those accusations and said that Alexander had threatened to, quote, "'destroy' him." Ellison even eventually successfully taking out a restraining order against her. But with those accusations out there in the world, Wardlow used both of them in attack ads. Extreme Keith Ellison has been accused of domestic violence by multiple women. Even the National Organization for Women has called for Ellison to end his campaign.

But on the other side of this, Wardlow isn't exactly free from public outcry either. Earlier we mentioned how Wardlow had worked for the Alliance Defending Freedom Group. While the group does define itself as an alliance building legal organization that advocates for the right of the people to freely live out their faith, Southern Poverty Law Center has accused the organization of having homophobic and transphobic policies. And the SPLC is saying that the group supports, quote, "...the re-criminalization of homosexuality of the United States and criminalization abroad, defends state-sanctioned sterilization of trans people abroad, and claims that a homosexual agenda will destroy Christianity and society." And so some in Minnesota have scrutinized over Wardlow's involvement with the organization,

especially since he represented Alliance Defending Freedom on a high profile case in Garden City, Michigan. In that specific case, Wardlow and Alliance Defending Freedom represented RG and GR Harris funeral homes. The funeral home had been sued by a former employee who was fired after telling her boss that she planned to transition from a man to a woman. Wardlow argued on behalf of the funeral home

saying that employees were supposed to dress in a manner sensitive to grieving family members and friends. Also claiming that the funeral home had protection under 2013's Federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act. And the judge eventually ruled in his favor. And defending this case is something that Wardlow has stood by then and now. After the ruling was announced, he said this is a significant victory for religious liberty. Saying this case wasn't about gender identity, it was about the owner's religious belief that sex is an immutable and God-given gift. And recently in September, he said,

I was fighting for free thought, free religion, and free speech, and those things are not controversial. But with all of that said about the situation, what do the polls say? Well, in mid-September, there was a poll that had Ellison holding a slight five-point lead, that being 41% to 36%. But in late October, we saw a massive shift, with Wardlow having 43%, Ellison slipping to 36%.

But no matter what happens between Ellison and Wardlow, remember, this is just one just one race like I said earlier There are a ton of other important AG races going on around the country Maybe even in your state and ultimately I guess if there is a main point is if you can vote this year vote I think one of the main things I want to get across with this video is there is a lot of Important stuff at all different levels and while I do feel like this year They're going to be even more people that are just doing kind of straight ticket voting for those of of you who haven't done like mail-in voting or like you're actually going to vote on Tuesday, you should be as informed as possible.

So I highly recommend, it's gonna be one of the top links in the description down below, go to vote411.org. All you have to do is enter the address of where you live and they will give you a personalized voter guide. For example, I entered mine and in these midterms I'm gonna be voting on 28 things. You know, it has the Senate, the House, the AG, the Governor, but then I'm also voting on propositions involving kidney dialysis clinics, mental health housing. There's a ton to be informed about and there's a ton you can have an effect on. And it is a serious enough issue to me for me to make this video, which I know is gonna do lower views on our kind of regular stuff, but it truly is important and the fact that we even get to do this, a lot of people take for granted.

And that's where we're gonna leave it today. Hopefully this video was helpful in general, interesting in general. But with that said, if you really made it to this point, thank you. Give yourself a pat on the back and hit that like button. Also, if you're new here and you want more, I usually talk about several topics in a show, hit that subscribe button. Also, if you missed the last two videos on this channel and you wanna check it out, click or tap right there. But, with that said, of course, as always, my name's Philip DeFranco, you've just been filled in, I love yo faces, and I'll see you on Sunday with an extra bonus video. But until then, I'm gonna go to sleep. Bye.