The Philip DeFranco Show - PDS 11.3 Election Night in America. What to expect as election results come in, the unknowns, &

Episode Date: November 3, 2020

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Hey, so today is finally the day, the day that you have maybe been thinking about, obsessing about, excited about, and maybe even at the same time dreading. And something that I've found fascinating is for some reason, and it's not, it's obviously not stemming from any confidence whatsoever because I feel like no one trusts anything that they're seeing in regards to polls or anything like that. But there's, there's this moment where it feels like maybe we're in the eye of the hurricane. There's this momentary calm where there's this moment where it feels like maybe we're in the eye of the hurricane. There's this momentary calm where there's been just, it feels like nothing but chaos leading to this moment.

And I feel like we know that unless something specific happens, there's gonna be chaos after this. But just for a moment, a chance to breathe, knowing that in the very near future, we will have an understanding of what the next few months and years look like. I don't know, it's a very strange feeling, especially considering how I was talking

about the stakes yesterday, which I still stand by. Also, a thing that I think bears repeating is understand while it is election day, unless certain specific things happen tonight, it is very likely we will not know who won until maybe Friday. Specific things, for example, like a key swing state like Florida,

because they've been allowed to tabulate their absentee ballots before election day, going to Biden early on. Or something like that would put a Biden in a 99% chance to win column. You know, there are other key swing states that have been allowing counties to start counting absentee ballots before election day,

in addition to Florida, places like North Carolina and Georgia. But then you have other hotly contested battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which actually weren't allowed to start counting those votes until election day. And with Pennsylvania specifically, which has one of the highest percentage chances

of being the tipping point state for either candidate, it's believed that we won't know the full vote count there until at least Friday. This also in part due to the deadline in Pennsylvania that requires absentee ballots to be received by Friday in order to be counted under an extension ordered by the state's top court that was held up by the Supreme Court.

Though notably there, as we've discussed, the Supreme Court could revisit it, which would make this whole thing a lot messier. Also, I will say, yes, technically, if Texas did flip blue for Biden, we would know much earlier on who was going to win, but, and feel free to try to prove me wrong, I believe that the close polling in Texas is not accurate,

which is why I tweeted in response to a poll that showed Biden and Trump neck and neck in Texas. If Texas goes blue, I'll get a tattoo of the state on my calf. That's how confident I am that this is just a tease. I feel like I'm safe, but I'm sharing it here. So if it does happen, you hold me to it. It'll be the most mixed reaction

to losing a bet I've ever had. Now, all of that said, as far as the election voting, what we're seeing right now, to start things off, and it actually is sort of props, according to reports, more and more companies are giving their employees paid time off to vote as part of campaigns organized by places like electionday.org.

With nearly 900 workplaces joining in that specific campaign alone, they've made it easier for an estimated one million Americans to cast their ballots, which also to insert my opinion, as I've stated in the past, I either think that election day needs to be a paid federal holiday, or it needs to be put into place

that in like the two weeks leading up to an election, that there is a day paid time off for people. Simply put, we need to make voting more accessible. You endangering your livelihood or your job, that shouldn't be part of the equation for you to engage in democracy. Also a reminder, if you're watching this in line to vote or you have a friend or someone that is in line to vote,

know your rights. If you face any questions about your eligibility to vote, poll workers are still legally required to give you a provisional ballot. Also, if you were still in line when polls close, do not leave. As long as you were there before the line closed, you still have the right to cast your ballot.

Which on that note, already as of this morning across the country, we're seeing signs of high turnout. People sharing photos and videos of long lines already forming as polling places start to open. And notably, I do wanna note here, as the Associated Press points out, these long lines on election day are not unusual. They are not simply by existing,

necessarily a sign of voter suppression or technical issues. With the AP also explaining this could just be a sign of high voter turnout or social distancing and other COVID safety measures. Though to that point, we're already seeing early reports of technical issues with voting machines in multiple counties in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina. And there, while some voters were required

to cast paper ballots, it seems like as of recording this video, most of the issues were quickly resolved with some of the affected counties in North Carolina even extending voting hours at certain precincts. And as far as other notable issues, we've also seen reports that the FBI and Department of Homeland Security

are investigating robocalls reportedly received by an estimated 10 million voters in multiple states over the last few days, telling them to stay safe and stay home. But of course, this is a thing that we're gonna have to keep an eye on through the rest of the day. Now, as far as what you should expect tonight,

or maybe even right now, as you're flipping between live coverage and my video, thank you for still including me. The first polls close 6 p.m. Eastern time, the last won't close until 1 a.m. Eastern time, and we'll start to see results coming in right after those first polls start closing. Now, one massively important thing to keep in mind here

is that these results will not come in all at once. So if you're looking at those early returns, and keep in mind different state to state as we talked about in the beginning, it is very likely that it will be skewed in a number of states, especially when you keep in mind mail-in ballots. As I've talked about before, it just takes longer

to count absentee votes than in-person ones for a number of reasons. Each mail-in ballot has to be opened and its eligibility must be verified, and that process takes even longer in states that require more strict verification processes. Things such as matching a voter's signature with their records, contacting voters if there are mistakes.

So, combined with the fact that each state has different rules for how votes are counted and reported, the one main thing that we know is that the vote counts will be reported unevenly. Which is why early counts may seem like things are going one way and then we actually start counting all the mail-in votes and it looks another way. And with all of that, one of the real key things

I wanna note here, and it is a very common misconception, when someone says on election night or even a few days following that a state has been called, that is not the official result. That is just a determination made by organizations like the Associated Press based on partial counts. And while those projections are oftentimes correct, they are considered unofficial by election officials.

In fact, the results usually aren't made official until weeks after the election when they are certified by election authorities, which is why there's going to be so much pressure on news organizations this year. They're essentially gonna have to do the thing they're not always the best at, and that is be patient. There has historically been enormous pressure

on these news organizations to call states as fast as possible. Are you the first one to announce a state, the other places haven't done it, people start flipping to that channel, and the other networks then have to decide, do we remain cautious here? Potentially risking being seen as behind

on the latest happenings of the night? Or do you go, yeah, it seems like it's leaning that way, I'm gonna join in and there's safety in numbers. Also, something to consider based off of the results we may see. This whole process will possibly, bordering on likely, be made even longer by a slew of court battles. Even Trump himself has said that he will fight

voting rules and results all the way to the Supreme Court. And just this last Sunday, he indicated that he would start the process immediately. We're gonna go in the night of, as soon as that election's over, we're going in with our lawyers. With him also going on to imply that he would specifically go after Pennsylvania

and other swing states for counting ballots after election day. Something which, as I noted yesterday, has literally no legal precedent as states normally count ballots for days and even weeks after the election. Hence why it takes weeks for the official results to be finalized.

Now, notably here, Trump has also denied that he would prematurely declare victory with him also saying today he would declare victory when there is victory, if there is victory. But based off of so many other things that he has said and done up to this point, there's no way to know that if he would actually stick to that. Yeah, that's where we are and potentially from here

into the chaos we go. The eye of a hurricane is but a moment. Then before we jump into more heavy news, let's talk about some interesting entertainment news. Yeah, what we're looking at is this new copyright infringement suit against the Netflix film Enola Holmes. So for those who don't know,

the movie stars Millie Bobby Brown as Enola, Sherlock's younger sister, with Sherlock being played by Henry Cavill. It's based on a book series by Nancy Springer who wrote her work using characters and settings from the already established Sherlock Holmes stories. Right, with the real creator of Sherlock Holmes being Sir Arthur Conan Doyle,

who's actually been dead since 1930. Now what we're seeing here are producers behind the Netflix movie saying that his estate is unfairly trying to prevent creators from using Sherlock in original work. And that is because back in June, Conan Doyle's estate brought a lawsuit against Netflix, Legendary Pictures, Springer,

and others associated with the film. With the estate arguing that the movie's depiction of Sherlock being warmer, having emotions, and respecting women violates Conan Doyle's copyright, which is why you may have seen a headline or two out in the wild saying that the estate is suing because Netflix gave Sherlock too many feelings. You know, this story is interesting

because it touches on public domain. Something that you should know with this story is that Conan Doyle's estate actually lost most of the rights to Sherlock Holmes back in 2014 when it was ruled by a judge that all Sherlock Holmes stories published before the year 1923 were now in the public domain. But that means they still hold the rights to 10 of the author's last original stories, which were written between 1923 and 1927. And elements that are considered original to those last 10 stories will fall under copyright law. So what the estate is trying to argue is that Conan Doyle channeled his emotions more in those last few stories,

making Sherlock more than just rational and analytical and saying it wasn't until then that he gave Sherlock those traits to help develop human connection and empathy. But we've seen the defendants here trying to dismiss the case, claiming that the estate is essentially just trying to force third parties

to pay for using the character in their works. Also denying violating copyright with an attorney, arguing that it is a fundamental tenant of copyright law, that ideas aren't protectable and neither are general feelings, emotions, and personality traits. With the attorney also running through some of the public domain work in which Sherlock demonstrates any of those warmer characteristics, including an example from an 1892

story where the detective treats a woman with quote, "'Nothing but kindness and respect." Which I will say it would be fascinating to see if this suit got thrown out because at one point Conan Doyle earlier on than expected was nice about a woman. Also on top of the copyright infringement claims, the estate is also suing for trademark infringement

because of the film's title containing the name Holmes. Though lawyers of the movie say this should be dismissed because the title Enola Holmes has artistic relevance to the movie. Saying it does not explicitly mislead the public into thinking that the estate is connected to it. But ultimately that is where we are with the story. We're gonna have to wait to see what happens.

And this may just end up being one of those lawsuits that they're hoping to be enough of an annoyance that there is a settlement, right? Because worth noting here is that the estate has fought similar battles before. Like in 2015, they launched a complaint against Miramax over the film, Mr. Holmes. But that lawsuit ultimately resulting in a settlement.

Yeah, ultimately we'll have to wait to see what happens there. And the last thing that we're gonna talk about today is a very serious and important issue, something that President Trump said the media will stop covering on November 4th, and something that he has said since February is just going to disappear, the coronavirus.

When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is gonna be down to close to zero. It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear. It will go away. You know it is going away. It's going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month.

And if not, it hopefully will be soon after that. Dying out. It's fading away. It's going to fade away. It's going to disappear. As I say, it'll be going away. They scream, how can you say that? I said, because it's gonna be going away.

It's going away. It's rounding the turn. Also a note, that hypercut doesn't even touch how many times he has said that. I spliced that down for time. The main point, this is something that is repeated over and over, even though we learned back in March when speaking to Bob Woodward,

he knew that this was a big deal and that he was downplaying it. I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down. Yes, sir. Because I don't wanna create a panic. You know, like when you see someone on some train tracks and you don't yell train behind you

because you don't want to spook them. But since the president is saying that this will just disappear since as little as 15 cases, the United States has seen 9.3 million cases and over 231,000 dead. And most pertinent to you today is that the surge right now is serious. When the president is out there right now

saying that we are rounding the corner, we may be rounding the corner into a wall. Yesterday, we saw over 93,000 new cases reported. And over the past week, there has been an average of 85,563 new cases per day. That is a 44% increase from the average just two weeks ago. And so with this, we saw the Washington Post obtaining a memo from the White House's Coronavirus Task Force

Coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx. And it's sort of we saw the Washington Post obtaining a memo from the White House's Coronavirus Task Force Coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx, and it's sort of sounding off the alarms here, with the memo saying, "'We are entering the most concerning "'and most deadly phase of this pandemic, "'leading to increasing mortality. "'This isn't about lockdowns. "'It hasn't been about lockdown since March or April.

"'It's about an aggressive, balanced approach "'that is not being implemented.'" With Birx's report painting a far different picture than what Donald Trump has been saying. Dr. Burks' report going on to say, "'Cases are rapidly rising in nearly 30% "'of all USA counties, "'the highest number of county hotspots

"'we have seen with this pandemic.'" And adding that, "'We need much more aggressive action from messaging "'to testing to surging personnel around the country "'before the crisis point.'" With her also hitting on the fact that the most essential thing at this point in time is to clearly and consistently communicate

about the necessity of uniform mask use, physical distancing, hand washing, and profound limitation of indoor gathering. You know, she is not the only public health official raising this warning. One example being Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases saying on Friday

that as cases surge with winter around the corner, the country is in bad shape. And specifically saying, we're in for a whole lot of hurt. It's not a good situation. All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.

Fauci emphasizing here, if we want to change things, the United States needs to make abrupt changes in its public health practices. Now, with that said, for what it's worth, the United States is far from the only place seeing an uptick right now, right? In Europe, for example, we're seeing a massive surge, hospitals starting to get swamped,

countries starting to set up new lockdowns. But then we look back to the United States where we're simply not following that kind of response, despite the fact that we're also seeing overwhelmed hospitals, right? Data from the COVID tracking project shows that hospitalizations are hiking up on the path to reaching where they were in the summer or spring.

And you know, it's a big country. In different places, we're seeing different jumps. Seeing things like last week in Pennsylvania, there was a 157% increase in hospitalizations compared to the same time last month. With a 125% jump in New Jersey, a 69% jump in Delaware. Utah is seeing a huge spike in cases and hospitalizations. I mean, the Salt Lake Tribune reported

that a record 348 patients were currently hospitalized due to the coronavirus. Dr. Brandon Webb, an infectious disease physician, saying, these are unprecedented hospital volumes. They are far in excess of what we saw during the last peak in July. And all of that comes just one week after health officials warned Utah's governor

that if the number of patients does not go down, hospitals will have to move to crisis standards of care. Meaning that patients in ICUs that are not getting better might just get moved out to make room for others. But Dr. Webb adding that the potential for ICUs to be overwhelmed or hit capacity is an inevitability unless we do something at the community level to interrupt the cycle of transmission.

Also adding that local leaders and the public have to do something to bring the cases down. Understand this is affecting far more places than I'm gonna even talk about here. Places like El Paso where hospitalizations have surged, seeing a 300% increase in the last three weeks. And in this situation, one of the challenges, you have nurses, doctors, hospital staff,

understandably tired and resources are strained. As Dr. Shikha Gupta, executive director of Get Us PPE, a nonprofit giving supplies to healthcare facilities, told The Guardian, more and more facilities are requesting personal protective equipment. We are deeply unprepared for what that's going to bring as hospitals reach capacity across the US

with surging caseloads. And Dr. David C. Grabowski, a health policy professor at Harvard Medical School telling the outlet, "'We lack personal protective equipment. "'We lack comprehensive surveillance and testing. "'And to be honest, a number of nursing homes "'still struggle with infection control. "'We've seen this play out now twice.'"

And I talk about this because you, I mean, on a personal level, I want you to be as safe as possible and know what may be around the corner. As well as, you know, with this story, with the situation, I can't help but wonder where might we be? Where might we be if we had a president that actively told his supporters to wear a mask? It is the patriotic thing to do,

rather than kind of doing that, but then openly mocking people and saying that it's PC to wear a mask. It is the patriotic thing to do rather than kind of doing that, but then openly mocking people and saying that it's PC to wear a mask. Where might we be if we had a president that put the same amount of effort into trying to suppress votes and sow doubt in this election into actually trying to curb COVID-19. Because Donald, the only thing I've seen disappear are people from dinner tables, family members, loved ones, friends, coworkers.

But hey, that's a story, and my personal takeaway at the end of it. And of course, I pass the question off to you, or really if you have any thoughts on what's happening right now. And just so we're clear here, like most often these days, I don't laugh because it's funny,

I laugh because it's so ridiculous. Sometimes it's the only thing you can do to not just cry at the true horror of this situation. And that, my friends, is where I'm going to end today's show. As always, thanks for being a part of my daily dives into the news, especially if you're one of the people that you're not just wanting to hear your own thoughts

regurgitated through another person. I appreciate you. Also, if you're new here, you wanna join the family, hit that subscribe button, and hey, maybe even text me at 813-213-4423. But with that said, of course, as always, my name's Philip DeFranco. You've just been filled in.

I love yo faces and I'll see you tomorrow. Whatever that day is gonna look like.