The Philip DeFranco Show - PDS 11.5 The Election is Crazy... Peanut The Squirrel Bomb Threats, Joe Rogan vs Billie Eilish, & More

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

Watch My 2024 Election Night Live Show: https://youtube.com/live/poz4VGcJHTc?feature=share Use code “PHIL” for $20 OFF your first SeatGeek order! https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/PHIL Returning buyers use code “PDS” for $10 off AND your chance at weekly $500 prizes!  https://BeautifulBastard.com GET EVERYTHING 20% OFF with code "IVOTED" til Midnight PT November 5th. Election Day is TODAY! Make Sure You VOTE: https://Vote.org  – ✩ TODAY’S STORIES ✩ – 00:00 - After New York Euthanized a Pet Squirrel, Chaos Ensued 05:19 - Celebs “Get Out the Vote” and Endorse Candidates in Final Hours  08:09 - Elections May Trend “Red” Tonight But Could Shift Blue Later 12:38 - Sponsored by Seatgeek 13:27 - The Races That Could Determine the Fate of the Senate and House ——————————   Produced by: Cory Ray Edited by: James Girardier, Maxwell Enright, Julie Goldberg, Christian Meeks, Matthew Henry Art Department: William Crespo Writing/Research: Philip DeFranco, Brian Espinoza, Lili Stenn, Maddie Crichton, Chris Tolve, Star Pralle, Jared Paolino Associate Producer on Red Shift: Brian Espinoza Associate Producer on Senate/House Races: Maddie Crichton ———————————— For more Philip DeFranco: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-philip-defranco-show/id1278424954 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6ESemquRbz6f8XLVywdZ2V Twitter:   https://x.com/PhillyD Instagram:   https://instagram.com/PhillyDeFranco Newsletter: https://www.dailydip.co TikTok:   https://www.tiktok.com/@philipdefranco?lang=en ———————————— #DeFranco #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump ———————————— Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sup, you beautiful bastards. Welcome back to the Philip DeFranco Show. You daily dive into the news. It is election day. So that means that today's show is a little bit different. And that's because one, shortly after I upload today's show, right, this video, I'll be going live right here on this channel, right?

YouTube.com slash DeFranco. First link in the description will take you to the watch page. And as of 3.30 p.m. Pacific, 6.30 p.m. Eastern, the live show will begin. And the little monkey icon I have will get a red outline. It'll say live. And depending on how

things go tonight, I'll be live likely for six to twelve hours. And we're gonna be going through and breaking down everything together. And then two, today's show is gonna be different because we're gonna talk about some news at the top and then I'm gonna tell you some stuff that you need to know for tonight's election results. Because there is a lot at play, more than you might even realize. Misinformation risks that are an all-time high, so there's a lot that we have to talk about. But with that said, buckle up, hit that like button and let's just jump into it. This is a news show.

And the first thing that we're gonna talk about today is Peanut the Squirrel. Now I know for those of you that are not chronically online like myself, that's gonna sound crazy, but this seemingly random apolitical squirrel has become one of the most political stories on election day.

I'll explain, right? So this is 34 year old Mark Longo. He's a guy in New York whose life changed forever seven years ago. Because that is when while crossing a busy street one day, he saw a mother squirrel get hit by a car. As I got closer to the intersection, there was a little baby

and he was trying to cross the same street. So I tried to step in front of him and get him out of the street. And instead of running away, he actually crawled up me. So that's when our journey began. So Mark takes Peanut home, intending to care for him while he looked for a vet or a rehab. But no one would take little Peanut. So Mark did the rehab himself.

About eight months into the rehab, I actually released Peanut back outside in hopes that he would live a nice wildlife and, you know, thank me for what we did. But unfortunately, a day and a half later, Peanut did get attacked. He ended up losing half of his tail and he found his way home. And that was the end of Peanut's wildlife career. Right, so after that, Mark gave up trying to get rid

of his adorable little boy and just welcomed him into his home. And these two growing very close over the next seven years, posting videos to Instagram, where they now have nearly 800,000 followers. Because who wouldn't love a video of Peanut doing tricks, jumping into his owner's arms, wearing bunny hats and eating waffles. Also with all of this, Peanut's social media fame

directed a ton of traffic to Mark's OnlyFans page, where he makes content with his partner. And then with that influx of cash, the couple bought a property last year in upstate New York and opened Peanut's Freedom Farm Animal Sanctuary. Right, this place where they care for around 300 animals, including horses, goats, and alpacas, although the star was always Peanut.

And actually as of several months ago, Fred the raccoon, who Mark rescued and brought indoors alongside Peanut. But then all of that came crashing down last Wednesday when the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation showed up to Mark's front door. Turns out, apparently they'd received anonymous complaints about the animals' living conditions. And it turns out it's illegal to house wild animals

as pets in New York without a license. So the state barged in and seized both Peanut and Fred. 10 to 12 DEC officers raided my house as if I was a drug dealer. I was sat outside my house for five hours. I had to get a police escort to my bathroom. I wasn't even allowed to feed my rescue horses breakfast or lunch.

Four departments and a judge signed off on a search warrant for a squirrel and a raccoon. Right, so that news by itself, it had people outraged enough, but then not long afterward, Mark posted this video to his Instagram. Hi everyone. I don't know how I'm gonna say this.

Peanut was the best thing that ever happened to us. And we got confirmation that they put him down. Please continue to help us raise money for the ongoing legal battles and for our nonprofit so we could keep Peanut's name alive. So according to the state, Peanut bit one of the investigators during the raid. And so to test Peanut and Fred for rabies,

the state euthanized both animals. And so, you know, all of that, it happened last week, and it's been so long that I normally wouldn't cover a story that old. But then, because this is the United States of America, politics got involved. The Trumps campaign, blaming what he called Democrat bureaucrats

for needlessly murdering Peanut. And Elon Musk writing, the government should not be allowed to barge into your house and kill your pet. That's messed up. And adding, vote for Peanut for liberty, for freedom. They'll let in 600,000 criminals across our border. But if someone has a pet squirrel without a permit, they go in there and kill the squirrel.

They took the squirrel and murdered it for no reason at all. They murdered peanut the squirrel. Democrats in the New York state government murdered a squirrel. It is a microcosm of everything this election is about. So I know Don's fired up about Peanut the squirrel. He was like, you know, is it really the case that the Democrats murdered the Elon Musk of squirrels? Now, I'm not saying Peanut's death just flipped New York, but you want to red pill America, raid their homes and murder their pets. But now it appears this has gone past some people trying to turn this into a rallying cry for Trump. With it being reported that 10 offices

of the New York State DEC received bomb threats over the incident. According to the Express Tribune, a woman reportedly admitted in a now private TikTok video that she was the one who reported Mark to the authorities. And this is another woman with a similar name who has no connection to the story, now says she's been getting death threats,

hateful comments, and harassment from people who think she's the first woman. But then finally, to bring it back to the election, it's very weird that depending on how tonight or this week plays out, there's gonna be a number of people who think we got the outcome we did, either because of a squirrel or a roast comic.

And if that's not just the fucking most American thing you've ever heard in your life. But then, before we get into the weeds about everything election night, let's talk about this celebrity surge we've seen over the last kind of 48 hours. There's just been a massive wave of celebrity endorsements and pushes to get the vote out,

with arguably one of the biggest coming last night from Joe Rogan. He recently had Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on the show, and his most recent episode is with Elon Musk. And while promoting that interview, Rogan wrote, the great and powerful Elon Musk, if it wasn't for him, we'd be fucked. He makes what I think is the most compelling case

for Trump you'll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy the podcast. With that, while not surprising you at outlets noting this could help Republican efforts to court young men at the ballot box. Obviously, that's a major one,

but also in recent days, we've seen a number of celebrities speaking up. Billie Eilish had a recent concert in Atlanta. Times are really scary, and a lot is at stake, and I know that if you're in this room and you support me you support women and i hope that you will big name shown up at harris's final rallies katie perry in pittsburgh lady gaga and oprah

in philadelphia four years ago i became a mother best decision i ever made. Orlando and I, we welcomed our daughter Daisy, and she is the reason I am voting for Kamala Harris. For more than half of this country's life, women didn't have a voice. Yet we raised children. We held our families together. We supported men as they made the decisions. But tomorrow, women will be a part of making this decision. If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again.

And then on top of those sorts of things, you had tons of people getting the vote out. For example, Taylor Swift, who previously endorsed Harris writing to her followers yesterday, here's a friendly but extremely important reminder that tomorrow is the US election and your last chance to vote. And the list kind of goes on and on,

but also it wouldn't be a celebrity story if there wasn't at least a little bit of backlash. And that is actually where Rihanna comes into play. Right, because yesterday she posted a reel joking about how she wished she could use her son's passport to sneak into the polls, adding, vote, cause I can. And in her caption, she also wrote, when protecting pussies and firing pussies

can happen all in one vote. So with that, there were a number of people that were not a fan of that joke. And we started seeing some back and forths happen. In response to someone who said, we need to make America great again because people like Rihanna wanna cheat to win, she said, LOL, when y'all stop burning ballot boxes,

come check me. Then when another person said she should be arrested for trying to vote illegally, Rihanna simply just hit them with a shut up Karen. When someone else posted a whole paragraph about border security and told Rihanna to stick to music, she said, where were you on January 6th, sis? Stick to your discounted crotch,

we out here fighting for its rights. So they're right now looking like some of the comment threads have since been removed, but they've still gone viral. But all of that is probably just a small taste of the back and forth discourse we will be seeing on the internet for the next week or two or forever, especially depending on which way this election goes tonight.

And then, so listen up, this is incredibly important for election night. I may even play this once or several times during our election night live stream, because I wanna prepare you, on election night, you're gonna see a common trend across swing states. Very likely, Donald Trump will lead early on and then Kamala Harris will suddenly start to catch up.

And this isn't, as MAGA folks will suggest proof that the Democrats are cheating in the election by dumping fake ballots, but instead it is a well-known phenomenon called the red mirage or blue shift. Now in some ways it might be slightly less pronounced this year, especially when you compare it to 2020, but in others, there are new rules in place

that could help fuel conspiracies and lead to demands that votes stop being counted. So the question, why exactly does this illusion happen? Well, there are a few factors at play, like that rural areas, which often lean Republican, finish counting faster than urban areas, which are usually Democrat. Also on top of that, Republicans usually favor

in-person voting on the day of the election, while Democrats tend to prefer mail-in or early voting. Although a key thing is there might be a slight shift this year as it seems that more Republicans have considered using early voting, with many states reporting upwards of 50% of registered voters using that method. So that's eaten away at mail-in voting,

although those votes are still very likely to be instrumental in the election. And in both cases, there are often new rules in place that delay when those votes are counted, especially in battleground ones. They're generally not allowed to be tallied until election day itself. And in the most extreme cases,

things like mail-in ballots, they're not even tallied until after the polls close. So there's just piles of ballots sitting with poll workers that aren't allowed to be looked at or counted well until the day starts. Right, so when you hear stories about boxes full of ballots being dropped off, that's usually why. They're just being delivered in chunks to polling places

for later counting, all of which ends up being used by conspiracy theorists to say that fake ballots are being dropped off. Right, even Trump said that counting ballots after election day was an issue back in 2020. And many of his supporters have continued to push for all ballots to be counted on election day itself or not count.

And this year, I mean, they're gonna be in for some disappointment because pretty much every swing state has already admitted that they likely won't even have unofficial results by the end of the night. Because again, despite states getting these ballots early, workers are often not allowed to count them until election day itself.

That's why you have folks like Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, already warning that the ballots there will not be fully counted until after election day. And notably, that is partially because of rules that his fellow Republicans have put in place. Things like that mail-in ballots couldn't be counted until 7 a.m. today, and they have to stop at 8 p.m. tonight. But then, by 10 p.m., there needs to be a tally

of all the uncounted ballots so far, presumably to stop any extra ballots from finding their way into the total. Although with that, only one candidate so far has a history of openly and shamelessly asking for more votes to come out of thin air. And this is surely it's a coincidence that the rules that make it easier to claim that ballots are being counted

too slowly were passed by Trump allies after 2020. And the thing is Georgia might be a fast example. Right in Arizona, officials are warning that it could take between 10 to 13 days to get an official count done. Now, that being said, we still might have a good idea by the end of the night, but if it's close, especially with how many votes are still outstanding, it might be some time before we know.

And part of the reason for that is while the state processes and counts mail-in ballots as they're received, it doesn't do this on election day. Instead, those are counted after the polls close at 9 p.m., not to mention that the state has a massive ballot this year that's two pages with 13 statewide initiatives that are expected to slow down counting.

Though with all this, one of the big real fears is what happens if multiple battleground states are all too close to call and we end up with more Trump supporters trying to storm the areas where election workers are counting ballots and demanding that they stop the count. Which if you don't remember, yes, it did happen in 2020. What's better than a well-marbled ribeye sizzling on the barbecue? A well-marbled ribeye sizzling on the barbecue that was carefully selected by an Instacart shopper and delivered to your door.

A well-marbled ribeye you ordered without even leaving the kiddie pool. Whatever groceries your summer calls for, Instacart has you covered. Download the Instacart app and enjoy $0 delivery fees on your first three orders. Service fees, exclusions, and terms apply. Instacart. Grocer groceries that over-deliver. Stop the cow! Stop the cow! Stop the cow! And all of this is everyone is expecting a legal mess. I mean, Trump and his team have long been preparing themselves to fight contested elections,

and in many cases have already done so. Like in Pennsylvania, for example, where the state Supreme Court ruled that people with rejected mail-in ballots are allowed to vote provisionally. With that getting sent all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled on Friday that those rules could stay in place. And in some ways, situations like this could make 2024 fundamentally different from 2020. Right, there are new laws in places across the country

that expedite and streamline these election-related lawsuits, which is generally seen as a good thing because the last thing anyone wants is a repeat of 2020. Or, I mean, even 2000, where the Supreme Court stepped in with one of its most controversial decisions ever and forced Florida to stop counting ballots to give Bush the win. So that actually kind of brings most controversial decisions ever and forced Florida to stop counting ballots to give Bush the win. So that actually kind of brings us full circle.

The demand that states stop counting ballots, it's not without precedence and it clearly can be game-changing. So in a zero sum way, and understand I'm being very specific there, it makes strategic sense why Republicans would wanna set up election rules so that things like mail-in voting

are counted later and slowed down. Right, one, if those votes could be ignored, it'd be a massive win for them. And two, even if they don't win any lawsuits to block the votes from being counted later, even casting the doubt about them, it's clearly done irreparable damage to our democracy. And so again, I just want to make sure that everyone was aware of this. So please share the word for the full video explanation that I just gave. I got a link in the description that you can send out as well. And honestly, it's just about getting information there. I don't give a shit if you rip that video and post it

somewhere. Because there's no reason to believe that the misinformation that people are throwing around out there right now is going to stop or slow down. But then, taking a quick break from the news, I gotta say, it has been fun for me to learn about how you guys are using your SeatGeek winnings. From concerts and Broadway shows to sporting events, our weekly SeatGeek $500 giveaway lives on and you beautiful bastards are crushing it.

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But again, SeatGeek veterans can add code PDS, which gets you $10 off any purchase. And again, you'll be entered for your chance at the $500 SeatGeek credit, no purchase necessary. But then, with so much actually happening with this election, I wanted to give you a breakdown of the state of play about the Senate, the House, and the presidential race. Starting with the Senate, the House, and the presidential race.

Starting with the Senate, because if you thought the presidential race was close, I mean, the balance of the Senate, it's even closer. So a little background here, right? The Democrats currently have a very narrow majority, leading Republicans 51 to 49. With that lead, thanks to the fact that four states have independent senators that caucus with the Democrats.

And so with the elections that are happening this specific cycle, I mean, the Democrats are hanging on by a thread. It could very easily flip. In fact, 538 predicted as of Friday, the Republicans could take a very narrow hold over. And this is there are over 30 seats up for grabs though. Most believe that it's gonna come down

to about 10-ish key races. So let's unpack some of those, especially because every news outlet is kind of considering these races a little bit differently. But we'll start with the four that are considered true toss-ups as of last Thursday by the New York Times and Cook Political Report. Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So in Ohio, we have Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown defending his seat against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. And this race has been so damn expensive. It has had more ad spending than any other race in Senate history, beating the $412 million we saw in Georgia back in 2020, that expected to even pass half a billion dollars.

And the polling leading up to election day has been tight. The New York Times polling average has had Brown leading 48 to 46. A local poll from the University of Akron having him ahead 46 to 44. And that poll specifically found that even though he's a Democrat, Brown has been able to pull Republican women

who intend to vote for Trump. With places like NBC trying to explain the closeness of this race by saying, "'Brown's survival and possibly partisan control "'of the Senate hinges on split ticket voters in a state "'that twice backed former President Donald Trump "'by healthy margins and likely will again. But then, over in Michigan,

we have two candidates vying for an open seat. You have Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Alyssa Slotkin. Right, and Slotkin, she's currently a U.S. representative, and Rogers is a former representative who was in office from 2001 to 2015. Also, for some background here, no Republican has actually won a U.S. Senate seat

in the state since the 90s, but the polling here is super tight. With the Detroit Free Press having Slotkin ahead by five points, but the poll has a four point margin of error. Though also the New York Times has averaged Slotkin pretty consistently at five points ahead since October right now at 49 to 45.

Now for her part, Slotkin's been touting her ability to work across the aisle because she's worked in national security roles under both the Bush and Obama administrations. Meanwhile, you have Rogers saying that he's running on fixing the shortcomings in Washington under this administration. But then of course, all eyes are gonna be on Pennsylvania,

especially with incumbent Democrat Bob Casey going against Republican challenger, David McCormick. And here the Cook Political Report actually previously considered this race a lean Democrat, but in late October, it switched it up to a toss up. And so you have the Associated Press saying, "'This is shaped up to be the toughest race "'of Casey's Senate career.'"

And this is the Hill had Casey leading 48, McCormick's 45.8%. The New York Times average also has incredibly similar figures, which is notably closer than the 49 to 44 point lead Casey had in early October. And this is also another race where abortion has come up as a major issue. And then that brings us to the last toss up, which is Wisconsin, where you have Democrat Tammy Baldwin defending her seat against Republican businessman Eric Hovde. There, an October poll from Marquette Law School had Baldwin ahead by two points, and the New York Times

average has her similarly leading, 49 to 47. With this, you have outlets like CNN reporting that this race has hit a lot of hot button issues like abortion and immigration. Also saying the race has, quote, devolved into one of the most personal and nastiest affairs in the country. Baldwin is notably the first out gay senator, and she's accused Hovde of trying to remind voters of her sexuality. Right in this, because he's run ads noting that her partner is a financial advisor and claiming it's a conflict of interest because she has high-end clients. But there, fact checks have found no evidence for claims that Baldwin has used her role in the Senate

to boost her partner's wallet. And this is, Hovde has also taken heat for his own finances because he's the CEO of a $3 billion bank and Democrats have also been quick to note that he has a $7 million home in Laguna Beach. And using that to paint him as out of touch with others in the state. And so those are generally considered the big four

as far as the Senate. And then also you have other key races in states like West Virginia. And West Virginia, because Joe Manchin has stepped out and that seat is now almost guaranteed to go to a Republican. And specifically, you've got Republican governor, Jim Justice, running against Democrat Glenn Elliott,

a former mayor in the state. And here you have 538 simulations saying Justice is far more likely to win. And outlets like CBS even saying that Democrats have all but ceded to the other side. Then in Arizona, you have voters yet again finding themselves dealing with the thickly layered lunacy and foundation of Carrie Lake,

with that being the race to replace Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Lake is going against Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego. Here, you have the Times saying this one leans blue, noting that Lake lost the governor race back in 2022, and then went into fits falsely claiming the election was stolen. So at the very least, I would say Lake

is a very divisive figure in the state, and right now Gallego is leading her in polling averages by around five points. But then you have Texas leaning red right now with Ted Cruz seeking a third term, leading challenger Colin Allred, 49 to 45. Now notably here, no Democrat has won a statewide election there since the 90s,

but also Cruz only won his last reelection by three points. And you have Democrats hoping that maybe Allred's a stronger challenger than Beto O'Rourke. Though again, the consensus is that it is a leaning Republican. Then in Nevada, you have Democratic incumbent, Jackie Rosen and Republican Sam Brown. Here as of last Friday,

you had Rosen leading the polls 49 to 44. And notably here in the last decade, the state has kept its senators blue, but it went for a Republican governor last election. So there is room for it to move. Then in Montana, you have CNN describing Democrat, Jon Tester as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent this year. And there we've seen Republican Tim Sheehy

leading him by four points in the polls. CBS explaining that recent population growth in the state has actually helped Republicans making it harder for Democrats to keep their seats. Then in Nebraska, Republican Senator Deb Fischer running for reelection against an independent, Dan Osborne. And here you have places like the Times noting that Nebraska, yes, is a red state,

but you have Osborne testing out a pro-labor and working class message that is making the race a lot closer than a lot of people initially assumed it would be. Surprisingly, he's only trailing Fisher by about three points. But then with all of that said, let's talk about the other half of Congress, right? The House of Representatives.

Cause shocker, we're also looking at a ton of tight races. So let's talk about the state of play with the House of Representatives. Right now it has a Republican majority, but only by a little. They have 220 and you need 218 for a majority. And notably, this is both Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson and Donald Trump have openly admitted to having a secret

with one another. You have some scared that that secret is them scheming a plan to try to steal the election and maybe Mike won't certify the election results if Kamala wins. And so for that, and a number of reasons, balance of the House is key. Especially because if Democrats were able to take over, they would have the majority on that little secret. It could potentially lose its power. Now with the House, because all 435 seats are up, I'm obviously not gonna be talking through all of them, but I will try to hit you with the highlights. So starting with Orange County, California, you have California's 47th district up for grabs. It used to be Katie Porter's seat, but now you have Democratic State Senator Dave Min going up against Republican business owner Scott Baugh. And here, according to the LA Times, Democrats have a voter registration edge over Republicans. The Cook Political Report also saying that it leans blue, but some polling

has found Baugh slightly ahead. And there, Politico explaining, This seat remains swingy in the previous GOP stronghold of Orange County. Baugh narrowly lost a bid against Porter two years ago while Min came up short in a prior bid for Congress. You also have Republican incumbents fighting to hold onto their spots in the 13th, 27th, and 41st districts. And polling from USC back in September found a virtual tie in the 41st district. But also, make no mistake, all are considered very close and could determine the fate of the house. Then in New York, the 17th district is definitely one to watch.

It was previously held by a Democrat, but they lost it back in 2022. And so Republican Mike Lawler is defending it against its previous holder, Mondaire Jones. And people largely see this one as necessary if Democrats wanna try to get back control. Also over in Long Island, you have a Republican hoping to hold his seat in a rematch against a Democrat.

And this is there is a reason to believe that these races could shift blue. Because as Lawrence Levy, the executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University told the Guardian, we had kind of a mini red tide in New York in 2022 that was related to post pandemic issues that brought a surge in crime, inflation and other things

so that folks who normally vote Democratic came out for Republicans. But what you also saw was a surge of turnout among Republicans and a drop off among Democrats. The turnout model in a presidential year is very different. You're going to get many more voters, many more Democrats who only come out in presidential years. But of course, we'll have to wait to see, like with all of these.

And then, let's talk about Pennsylvania. Because as always, it's super consequential. As far as the House, it is three House district races that are considered toss-ups. One of those is the 10th district, where Republican Scott Perry is seeking reelection after six terms. But this, as reported by CBS News, challenger Janelle Stelzen was endorsed

by Republicans for Harris, and she's been going after him hard, running ads about him not living in the district and going after him for defying a subpoena related to January 6th. Then another toss-up there is the 7th district, which has a history of choosing the president. I mean, it is a true swing district. Biden only beat Trump back in 2020 by 49.7% to 49.1%. And then the last toss up there is the eighth district with the Democrats seeking reelection and holding the seat since 2013. So there, Republicans do believe they stand a chance of flipping it. Then in Virginia, you have most people talking about the second and seventh districts. Here you have NBC News

saying the Democrats have the possibility of flipping the second district. And if they do, the outlet says that it could be an early sign that the party is going to have a good turnout elsewhere. But it is far from guaranteed. I mean, you have the Times actually reporting that it is leaning red, but it does have the seventh as a true toss-up, right? The seat is open, no one's defending it, and the two people fighting are Democratic candidate Eugene Vindman,

who's notably the twin brother of Alexander Vindman, which also I will say there are potentially a lot of voters confused about who is running. So some have tied either support or dislike of candidate Vindman to the actions of his brother, who testified against Trump during his first impeachment trial. And that could possibly help GOP candidate Derek Anderson,

as the partisan nature of the impeachment could alienate some voters. Which I will note here, because it was reported, right, Eugene Vindman, the candidate, was involved in the impeachment, but he wasn't the main character like his brother was. So this also is the post that said it's unlikely that this confusion will fully sway the outcome. But again, we're talking about it because it is a toss-up race and it'll be one to watch. But then, hopping to Wisconsin, the third district there is definitely one to watch.

There you have Republican Derek Van Orden defending his seat after a lot of controversy during his first term. Among other things, he shouted at Biden during the State of the Union, and he also faced backlash for yelling and cursing at high school-age Senate pages while they were touring the Capitol.

And here you have Democrat Rebecca Cook challenging him by running as a moderate, hoping to appeal to those who were turned off by those controversies. And while there are things like a Huffington Post poll having her leading by one percentage point back in October, the Times still has it leaning Republican. Then moving on to Texas, you have people saying that the 34th district is a major sign of where the Latino vote hangs in the state. And very importantly with that, the potential for it to move to the right. Now,

the Times has had it leaning to the left and outlets like NBC have also said that it's more likely to go that way too. But Republican Mayra Flores is challenging incumbent representative Incente Gonzalez by leaning into far-right rhetoric at a time when Trump could make gains in the Latino community. With, for example, USA Today explaining that South Texas has been a Democratic stronghold for a while, but Republicans have been slowly

making inroads into South Texas, and this district could be a bellwether in that effort. Finally, for House races we're talking about, we go to Arizona, because Arizona has two districts that are considered toss-ups by the times. The first and the sixth. Both have incumbent Republicans, and in the case of the first district,

you have incumbent David Schweikart going against Democratic former lawmaker and ER physician, Amish Shah. It is the wealthiest district in the state, it is a toss-up, but somehow the sixth district, it seems even closer. It's a rematch between Representative Juan Siscomani and Kirsten Engel.

And in 2022, he beat her by less than 6,000 votes. And so now this time around, it's tied within the margin of error. Thang 2022, he beat her by less than 6,000 votes. And so now this time around, it's tied within the margin of error. With Engel notably trying to run on reproductive rights as that's gonna be a key issue for the state elsewhere on the ballot. And again, there are more house races at play here, but I just wanted to at least highlight those.

But then finally, obviously, you know, we're looking at the presidential race. That's where understandably all eyes are. Here, there's been plenty of national polling, though that really doesn't matter because the electoral college. But you also have places like FiveThirtyEight Simulator saying that Kamala Harris wins 50 times out of 100

while Trump wins 49. And this after it previously had Trump winning 52 times out of 100 and Harris 48 times. Statewide polling generally very close. So this of course is over the weekend before election day, we saw a very highly rated outlier poll. With that coming from Ann Salzer, who has a very good track record

as far as what the vote is going to be in Iowa. And there, while you had many people expecting her poll to find Trump up plus five or plus seven, it ended up actually being Harris plus three. With many people saying the big story there isn't actually Iowa. But if the polling was accurate, it might mean that a lot of people are breaking for Harris

right near the end. So they're either gonna look really smart or their rating's gonna be going down. But again, polls are polls, votes are votes, and votes are the only ones that matter. We're gonna have to wait to see how it all shakes out. But that, my friends, is the end of your Tuesday Philip DeFranco show.

And again, big reminder, depending on when you're watching this, it may have already started. I'll be live streaming the election results tonight. I got a link in the top description. If I can, I got you right here. You can click or tap. With that said, I just wanna say thank you for watching.

I love yo faces. Be safe out there, and I'll see you soon.