The Philip DeFranco Show - PDS 6.3 Jonathan Joss Killed, Conflicting Reports Have The Internet Divided, Sponsors Abandon PRIDE, & More

Episode Date: June 3, 2025

We've got 6.5 things we need to talk about today... Go to http://vessi.com/defranco for 15% off your first order. Go to https://saily.com/Phil and use the code “phil” to get an exclusive 15% dis...count on Saily data plans! ⛵ New https://BeautifulBastard.com Drop Live! 3 New Tees and classics restocked  Subscribe for New shows every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday @ 6pm ET/3pm PT & watch more here:  https://youtu.be/GfxCrO2PxVI?si=gSJ8rU5sDK4x-jMc&list=PLHcsGizlfLMWpSg7i0b9wnUyEZWI-25N3&index=1  – ✩ TODAY’S STORIES ✩ – 00:00 - Police Push Back on Claim that Death of Jonathan Joss Was a Hate Crime 04:10 - Celebs Back Letter to Protect LGBTQ+ Youth as Pride Faces Trump-Era Setbacks 07:40 - Sponsored by Vessi 08:37 - Man Accused of Forging Threats to Trump to Deport Victim in Criminal Case  11:21 - FEMA Director Says He Didn’t Know the U.S. Had a Hurricane Season 16:12 - Sponsored by Saily 17:15 - Mexico’s Ruling Party Expands Power After Just 13% Turnout in Judicial Election  20:23 - OECD Forecast Puts U.S. & Global Economic Growth Lower Than Expected -——————————   Produced by: Cory Ray Edited by: James Girardier, Maxwell Enright, Julie Goldberg, Christian Meeks, Matthew Henry Art Department: William Crespo Writing/Research: Philip DeFranco, Brian Espinoza, Lili Stenn, Maddie Crichton, Chris Tolve, Star Pralle, Jared Paolino  ———————————— For more Philip DeFranco: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-philip-defranco-show/id1278424954 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6ESemquRbz6f8XLVywdZ2V Twitter:   https://x.com/PhillyD Instagram:   https://instagram.com/PhillyDeFranco Newsletter: https://www.dailydip.co TikTok:   https://www.tiktok.com/@philipdefranco?lang=en ———————————— #DeFranco #SabrinaCarpenter #ArianaGrande ———————————— Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:03 If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or the gambling of someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario, 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. You're now seeing conflicting reports around the killing of Jonathan Joss and it's got the internet divided. We're now seeing pride abandoned by big corporations. We just got a crazy plot twist in the national news
Starting point is 00:01:19 of a guy who was accused of threatening to kill Trump. You've got a scandal growing around Trump's new FEMA head who told staff he didn't know there was a hurricane season. We're talking about all that and much more on today's brand new Philip DeFranco show, you daily dive into the news, starting with this. Was actor Jonathan Joss just killed in a homophobic hate crime?
Starting point is 00:01:37 That is what many people are asking and claiming after he was just shot dead outside of his home in San Antonio on Sunday, after an altercation with a neighbor who reportedly was apprehended soon after. And Joss, if you don't know, he's best known for his roles in King of the Hill and Parks and Rec, and was visiting the site of his recently burned down home
Starting point is 00:01:52 with his husband, Tristan Kern, to Gonzalez. And according to a Facebook post from Gonzalez, when we returned to the site to check our mail, we discovered the skull of one of our dogs and its harness placed in clear view. This caused both of us severe emotional distress. We began yelling and crying in response to the pain of what we saw.
Starting point is 00:02:07 While we were doing this, a man approached us. He started yelling violent homophobic slurs at us. He then raised a gun from his lap and fired. But the Gonzales then going on to write that he was murdered by someone who could not stand the sight of two men loving each other. And so he had that statement painting a pretty clear picture as to why this couple was targeted,
Starting point is 00:02:23 but you had San Antonio police heavily disputing that and saying, our investigation has found no evidence whatsoever to indicate that Mr. Joss's murder was related to his sexual orientation. Should any new evidence come to light, we will charge the suspect accordingly. And so with that, as it turns out, according to reports is this is not the first time
Starting point is 00:02:39 the couple has had issues with the neighbors. With Tristan even making it seem like their recently burned down home was possibly because of arson. With him writing, that home was burned down after over two years of threats from people in the area who repeatedly told us they would set it on fire.
Starting point is 00:02:51 We reported these threats to law enforcement multiple times and nothing was done. And then all of this is the neighbors have their own version of events and they're painting a much different picture of Joss's time on the street. For example, one telling my San Antonio that quote, he would just walk up and down the street.
Starting point is 00:03:04 He would just like scream saying saying he was just very loud, very loud, but we knew how he was. So we wouldn't disturb him. Even if he looked at us, talked mess to us, we just ignored him because we knew that's how he was. You also had neighbors telling local outlet, KENS5, that Joss and the man who shot him had a longstanding feud and often faced off with weapons.
Starting point is 00:03:20 So sometimes Joss was even armed with a crossbow. Also others reportedly called the police for mental welfare checks on Joss over 40 times since January of 2024. And to be clear, essentially all of this was in 2024 since he really wasn't around after the home burn down in January. You also had some feeling like the shooting
Starting point is 00:03:35 was just bound to happen because of Joss's alleged mental health issues with one then telling the local paper that I'm so sad it had to come to this. Saying we all knew it was going to end up like this because of his antics. It's sad because this could have been prevented if he had gotten the help he needed.
Starting point is 00:03:48 You also had another claiming that the shooting was because a neighbor was, quote, fed up with Joss. But then with all of that, as far as how people are reacting online, you have people really not only talking about what a great person Joss was to be around, but also taking Tristan's claim that this was caused by homophobia at face value.
Starting point is 00:04:01 Some have even claimed with his ties into a broader trend across the US that we're seeing the country shift to the right over the years. Although there it should also be pointed out that the belief that you should kill someone for being gay, that's extremely fringe even among the right. We've then also seen the situation fueling anger
Starting point is 00:04:14 and frustration at some media outlets for how they tackled the issue. For example, you had the New York Post initially saying that the shooting was because of an argument between Joss and his neighbor, which led to takes like, a big fuck you to the New York Post for reducing this murder to an argument with a neighbor. Saying Jonathan Joss was the neighbor, which led to takes like, a big fuck you to the New York Post for reducing this murder to an argument with a neighbor, saying,
Starting point is 00:04:26 "'Jonathan Joss was the victim of a hate crime "'and died protecting his husband. "'Queer people shouldn't be killed "'for who they love slash who they are. "'We deserve the right to exist.'" Also, as far as the Post, they've since released new articles that explicitly mention that Tristan claims it was a hate crime and that police deny that.
Starting point is 00:04:40 You know, generally the most common response to all this has just been sympathy and sadness at just how pointless the killing was, regardless of the reason. With for example, Nick Offerman, who had roles alongside Joss, writing in a statement, "'The cast has been texting together about it all day and we're just heartbroken.
Starting point is 00:04:53 Jonathan was such a sweet guy and we loved having him as our chief Ken Hotate. A terrible tragedy.'" And with that, I think it's important to remember at the very least, whether it was because Joss was gay or having a particularly hard mental day after seeing his burned down home and dead dog, neither are an excuse for murder.
Starting point is 00:05:07 But ultimately, that is where we are with this just horrible situation right now. As we wait to see if any more information or evidence comes out, I'd love to know your thoughts on this, both with the situation at hand as well as the reactions. But then from there, shifting gears from that, Pedro Pascal, Ariana Grande, and Sabrina Carpenter
Starting point is 00:05:23 are fighting back against against Trump administration's efforts to cut funding to LGBTQ plus suicide prevention. With the Sing the Trevor Project publishing an open letter signed by around a hundred big names, addressing the fact that the government is reportedly considering defunding LGBTQ plus services from the 988 suicide and crisis lifeline. Because while anyone in crisis can call 988 in the US,
Starting point is 00:05:42 the line has counselors especially trained for high risk groups like LGBTQ plus youth. And that, as you see things like last year, around 40% of young people in that community considered suicide and one in 10 had an attempt. And so we had this new celebrity back letter saying, since its launch in 2022, this program has connected nearly 1.3 million crisis contacts
Starting point is 00:05:59 with life-saving affirming care to LGBTQ plus young people during their most vulnerable moments. And saying, this is about people, not politics. At a time of deep division, let this be something we as people can all agree on. No young person should be left without help in their darkest moment. Stripping away this lifeline leaves LGBTQ plus youth
Starting point is 00:06:16 with the message that their lives are not worth saving. We refuse to accept that message. We call on the administration and Congress to do the right thing, restore and protect funding for the 988 suicide and crisis lifelines LGBTQ plus youth specialized services in the fiscal year 2026 budget. The latter also addressing young LGBTQ plus people specifically and telling them that they are not alone and that people are fighting for them. And then as far as the general public
Starting point is 00:06:37 they encourage those interested to sign a petition to protect these lifeline programs. So you have many wondering if anything will actually be done because this is not happening in a bubble. Or the Trump administration has canceled grants aimed at researching and funding LGBTQ plus health initiatives. You then also have Trump's anti DEI orders and rhetoric that have heavily targeted the community. Right, and all of this is playing out as Pride Month has kicked off.
Starting point is 00:06:57 And you have many arguing that it feels like there has been a massive cultural shift. And one of the ways that you have people saying that we're seeing that is tons of corporate sponsors backing out of supporting Pride events, which as it turns out among other things has caused budget shortfalls in cities all around the country.
Starting point is 00:07:09 San Francisco Pride, for example, lost five major corporate backers, including Comcast, Smirnoff and more. The city's organizers now facing a $200,000 budget gap. You're also seeing in Kansas City, they're down the same amount, which is roughly half of KC Pride's whole budget. You've also got the group behind New York City's
Starting point is 00:07:23 Pride festivities trying to fill a $750,000 gap in St. Louis after Anheuser-Busch ended its Pride sponsorship, organizers are down 150K. And then with all this, you have Suzanne Ford, the executive director of San Francisco Pride, telling the AP, with everything we're facing from the Trump administration, to lose five of your partners within a couple of weeks,
Starting point is 00:07:39 it felt like we're being abandoned. Right, and then reportedly after corporate withdrawals from Pride made headlines, you had some companies opting to donate, but apparently only doing so anonymously. And so with that, you have places like AP reporting that the shift reflects how corporations are adjusting to a change in cultural landscape
Starting point is 00:07:53 that began during the pandemic and accelerated with Trump's second term. And then also with this situation, you have people kind of focusing on World Pride, which is being held in Washington, DC this year, with then tons of reports, noting that people have kind of pretty complicated feelings on this for obvious reasons that you'd assume.
Starting point is 00:08:06 For example, the founder and CEO of the travel platform Every Queer telling CBS News, what is happening socially and politically changes the feeling of the pride that you are attending and world pride will likely bring an astronomical amount of fear and sadness from people. Because while some, they see this current administration and they feel more motivated to attend Pride,
Starting point is 00:08:23 to stick it to the Trump administration, you have others scared to attend in this political climate. And actually with that, you do have some cities acknowledging the political elephant in the room. Like San Francisco's Pride theme is queer joy is resistance. New York's is rise up, pride and protests. And you had Suzanne Ford adding, if you come to Pride this year, that's a revolutionary act. You are sending a message to those in Washington that here in San Francisco, we still have the same values that we've always had. You can love who you love here.
Starting point is 00:08:49 We're not going to retreat from that. And then we have a lot more news that we need to talk about today. But first, I gotta say, you know, have you ever tried to stay dry in the city and you failed miserably? You know, if you're over the fails, get with Vessi. Their weekend sneakers are a hundred percent waterproof,
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Starting point is 00:09:42 And with a one year warranty and worry-free 30 day returns, you're covered for every journey. But then jumping back into the news, to this is Demetrius Deshaun Scott. He's been charged with armed robbery and aggravated battery of another guy by the name of Ramon Morales Reyes in Milwaukee. With Morales Reyes claiming that Scott knocked him
Starting point is 00:09:58 off his bike, cut him with a box cutter and then stole the bike. But last week, Morales Reyes had made national headlines when Homeland Security Secretary Christine Noem announced that he had been arrested for writing letters threatening to kill President Trump. Noem describing him as an illegal alien who threatened to assassinate President Trump
Starting point is 00:10:13 and claiming that he had entered the US legally at least nine times and had a criminal record. In the announcement, Noem also included a picture of one of the letters where the author had written, "'You have been deporting my family "'and I think at his time Donald J. Trump "'get what he has coming to him. With him adding that he would self-deport himself
Starting point is 00:10:27 after using his gun to shoot Trump in the head. With illegal documents also revealing that the letters, which were sent to the Wisconsin attorney general's office, the Milwaukee police chiefs and ICE, had a return address with his name. And so, you know, unsurprisingly, that story gets a ton of traction with Nome and Trump supporters touting it as a success
Starting point is 00:10:42 of Trump's immigration crackdown. Now it turns out that Morales-Reyes likely didn't write those letters. And the plot twist is that it was actually Scott. In a new complaint, you have prosecutors alleging that Scott wrote the letters pretending to be Morales-Reyes in order to get him deported so he couldn't testify against him
Starting point is 00:10:57 in the criminal robbery and battery case. And currently it looks like the evidence is actually pretty damn strong. First of all, you had Milwaukee police saying that when they interviewed Morales Reyes, they found that he quote, does not read, write or fluently speak English. Adding that a note from him that they had analyzed
Starting point is 00:11:11 also showed completely different handwriting than the letters. And dude, prosecutors saying the police listened to phone calls Scott had made from jail, including ones where he talked about sending letters, asked for the address of the Wisconsin AG's office and repeatedly talked about how he had a plan that was going to get his case dismissed.
Starting point is 00:11:26 With him even explicitly saying on one call, this dude is a goddamn illegal immigrant and they just need to pick his ass up. If he gets picked up by ICE, there won't be a jury trial. So they will probably dismiss it that day. That's my plan. And then here's the real kicker. The complaint literally says that during an interview
Starting point is 00:11:40 with police on May 30th, Scott admitted that he wrote everything on the letter and adding that he quote, admitted that he wrote everything on the letter and adding that he quote, admitted that his intention was not to go after president Trump, but solely to prevent Morales Reyes from testifying at his trial.
Starting point is 00:11:52 And so now in addition to other charges against him, prosecutors have filed new charges of identity theft, bail jumping and felony intimidation of a witness in a criminal complaint. With Scott's trials scheduled for July, but then as far as Morales Reyes, when asked if he still faces deportation, given this wild development,
Starting point is 00:12:06 you had a DHS spokesperson saying in a statement, "'The investigation into the threat is ongoing,' and adding, over the course of the investigation, this individual was determined to be in the country illegally and that he had a criminal record. He will remain in custody.'" Though you then also had his deportation defense lawyer telling reporters that he is working to get
Starting point is 00:12:22 Morales-Reyes released from custody and pursue any relief he may qualify for an immigration court. And so we'll see what happens there soon, but just a wild, wild piece of news. But then next up from that, did Donald Trump's new acting head of FEMA genuinely just learned that hurricane season is a thing? That tragically is a very real question
Starting point is 00:12:40 that's being debated by lawmakers right now. Just give you a little background here in case you're not up to date on FEMA. I don't know why you would be. Early last month, Trump appointed David Richardson as the acting administrator of the emergency department after firing the previous leader who Trump himself had literally appointed
Starting point is 00:12:54 just months earlier. With that guy appearing to get the boot because he had the audacity to tell Congress that he thought that it might be a bad idea to eliminate FEMA entirely. Which of course notably has been a Trump goal for a while. Though notably it's been reported that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem,
Starting point is 00:13:06 whose agency oversees FEMA, has quietly taken steps to keep the agency running because there's no alternative to replace it. Because as it turns out, you kind of fucking need FEMA. But that reality, it hasn't stopped the administration from trying to overhaul the agency and undermine it at every step of the way. And that including by appointing Richardson,
Starting point is 00:13:23 who served in the Marines and worked in the counteringapons of Mass Destruction Office of the DHS, but who lacks experience in emergency management. A fact that has raised concerns among FEMA staff, though, like many of Trump's appointees, the main qualification for any of the jobs is be a loyalist. Where would daddy says goes, and you had him telling staff on his first full day in office that he will run right over anyone
Starting point is 00:13:42 who resisted his changes. And then yesterday, those concerns were underscored during a staff briefing where he reportedly noted that June 1st was the start of hurricane season, which you know runs through the end of November and then said, quote, "'I didn't realize it was a season.'" And according to Reuters, it was not clear to staff
Starting point is 00:13:57 whether he meant it literally as a joke or in some other context. And this is at the same time you had CBS reporting that current and former employees told them that the remark flustered many who genuinely believe Richardson was truly surprised to learn that hurricane season had started. And so as a result, you had many jumping on those remarks
Starting point is 00:14:13 and saying that Richardson's unqualified and competent and that he should not be running the agency. It sent up minority leader Chuck Schumer, even going as far to imply that Richardson should be fired. But then in response, you had a DHS spokesperson hitting back in a statement where they notably didn't deny that Richardson had made the comment but claimed in response, he would have DHS spokesperson hitting back in a statement where they notably didn't deny that Richardson had made the comment,
Starting point is 00:14:27 but claimed that he just wasn't being serious. Saying, despite mean-spirited attempts to falsely frame a joke as policy, there is no uncertainty about what FEMA will be doing this hurricane season. FEMA is laser focused on disaster response and protecting the American people. Now, of course, there you have some skeptical
Starting point is 00:14:42 of the administration's narrative there, but also regardless, you had many arguing that even if it was a joke, it was in very poor taste at the least. Either one, because it's a time of year where natural disasters are gonna kill dozens of Americans and destroy massive pieces of the country, and or two, because there are also very serious concerns
Starting point is 00:14:57 about what the Trump administration's gonna be doing to handle the upcoming season. And that, because in addition to trying to get rid of FEMA entirely and installing an inexperienced loyalist, the administration has also taken a number of other steps that could undermine the agency's ability to respond to a crisis. Hurricane season is FEMA's most challenging period
Starting point is 00:15:12 because the country is at its most vulnerable to massive disasters that state and local managers aren't equipped to deal with. And this season that we're currently staring at, it could be especially bad with government officials saying there is a 60% chance of above normal activity this year and three to five major hurricanes expected. But instead of beefing up staff and resources,
Starting point is 00:15:29 you have the Trump administration responding by gutting the agency as part of the sweeping government cuts and funding freezes led by Elon Musk and Doge. I mean, according to reports, hundreds of workers have been fired in the Doge sweeps, but also even more have resigned amid pressure from Musk to take buyouts and concerns that Trump would eliminate the agency anyway.
Starting point is 00:15:44 So all in all, it's been reported that FEMA has lost nearly a quarter of its full-time staff, including 20% of the coordinating officers who manage responses to large scale disasters. And that is you have some reports saying that the staffing reductions are actually closer to a third of the entire workforce. And so as a result, you have staffers saying
Starting point is 00:16:00 that FEMA leadership is stuck between balancing Trump's demands to dramatically gut and change the agency, while then also still trying to prepare for emergencies because there isn't any alternative right now. With even Richardson himself reportedly saying that FEMA has struggled to put together a hurricane disaster response plan amid uncertainty over Trump's intentions for the agency.
Starting point is 00:16:16 And with that, you had the Wall Street Journal reporting that during the staff briefing yesterday, Richardson also said that agency leaders are scrapping a new hurricane response plan. And that, despite the fact that previously, he allegedly said that they were close to completing a plan hurricane response plan. And that despite the fact that previously he allegedly said that they were close to completing a plan. Even saying that it would be done before the end of May. But instead, Richardson said that the agency
Starting point is 00:16:31 will just use the response plan from last year which was designed by the Biden administration. Though that as you had sources saying that many are confused about how that would work with a dramatically reduced workforce. And given the fact that the Trump administration has literally gotten rid of some of the key programs in that plan.
Starting point is 00:16:44 Then on the other side of this, you had DHS hitting back at the report on X, calling it fake news and addict. FEMA did not quote, scrap anything. FEMA is full steam ahead with an effective and focused plan to respond to hurricane season while empowering states to further lead their own disaster response. So there you had a number of people noting
Starting point is 00:17:01 that the statement did not explicitly deny the accuracy of the journals reporting or the main meat of its claim, which is that FEMA is recycling the Biden administration's hurricane plan from last year. And that, as you had many adding that, even if they do have a new plan, experts say that it should really have been rolled out a while ago, given the fact that we are already
Starting point is 00:17:16 in hurricane season. But for now, we'll have to wait to see how all this plays out and hope that hurricane season this year is not as bad as it's expected to be. But then I've got even more news for you in just a minute. But first, have you ever been stranded abroad with zero internet and zero patients? Cause yeah, me too, it sucks.
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Starting point is 00:19:14 you at say random travel destinations? Margaret are you building a teleporter? No, yes. SAP Concur helps your business move forward faster. Learn more at Concur.com. Then, getting back to the news, Mexico just made history by becoming the first Yes. SAP Concur helps your business move forward faster. Learn more at concur.com. Then getting back to the news, Mexico just made history by becoming the first country to start electing every single one of its judges. And so we need to talk about how wild this is and what it means moving forward.
Starting point is 00:19:35 Because in addition to being the world's largest judicial election, it is also the most controversial. Because right now you have many claiming that this new practice, it's gonna chip away at the country's system of checks and balances, flood the system with under-qualified
Starting point is 00:19:46 or at the very least partisan judges, and ultimately empower the ruling party. A party that notably already dominates the Mexican government holding both the presidency and a majority in Congress. And, wouldn't you note it, they both just so happen to play a massive role in screening and nominating the candidates in the election.
Starting point is 00:20:00 Which is part of the reason so many have called this process rushed and superficial. But what they cannot call it is ineffective. Because it now appears that the ruling party has total control over the country's Supreme Court. 86% of the vote counted. Every single judge on this new nine-member Supreme Court had been on lists of recommended candidates that were distributed to voters by the ruling party. And then in addition to that, we're still waiting on results from more than 2600 other
Starting point is 00:20:21 federal and state magistrates. And unsurprisingly, it looks like the ruling party is gonna have a very strong showing there as well. And so you have the party's opponents claiming that this, it's just the latest in a series of events that spell trouble for democracy in Mexico. Some of those other things, including the shuttering of several watchdog agencies last fall.
Starting point is 00:20:36 And then as far as the judicial election specifically, you have critics saying that judges will be more afraid to issue unpopular rulings because they wanna get reelected. Plus you have many saying they could become beholdens of politicians and local power brokers like drug traffickers. I mean, we've seen one former Supreme court justice even saying in an interview,
Starting point is 00:20:50 this signifies the end of the independence of the judicial branch. Then an expert on judicial independence and a director of a Mexican NGO adding, it did not seem to me to be a democratic exercise. It was a clear attempt to manipulate the vote within her and other volunteers also claiming that they detected several irregularities during the election.
Starting point is 00:21:06 Things including voters carrying printed sheets indicating which candidates to select, multiple people entering voting booths at once and voters taking photos of their filled ballots, which is a possible indication of vote buying. And then beyond all that, you had many Mexicans reportedly saying that they were confused by the process. But I mean, just at the base level,
Starting point is 00:21:21 they had to select dozens of judges from multiple ballots with hundreds of names, which then also could be part of the reason that turnout was only at 13%, which is just abysmally low. But that is miles below the more than 60% that tend to turn out for presidential election. And in fact, it's lower than any other federal vote in Mexico's democratic history.
Starting point is 00:21:38 And actually, as it turns out, you had hundreds of career magistrates choosing not to run in the election and many critics just boycotting the vote. There was some saying that they're going backward, remembering a time last century when one party held the presidency for 71 years straight and controlled most of the government.
Starting point is 00:21:51 Though then with that, in addition to the loud critiques and concern on the other side, you had president Claudia Schoenbaum, for example, having a different take. With her saying that the Mexican judiciary had long had problems with corruption and nepotism and arguing that it is best to let the people decide. But they're then saying after the election, Mexico is the most democratic country in the world. You know, ultimately as far as how this is going to turn out for Mexico, what I will
Starting point is 00:22:12 say is one, it has been widely understood that there is a lot of corruption in Mexico's judiciary. So something, it needed a change. But it is then also separately hard to see this as kind of a judicial takeover by the ruling party. Something that very well as it plays out could be seen as a removal of a layer of checks and balances. Hey, time will tell. But then next up today, global economy may actually be more cooked
Starting point is 00:22:37 than we first thought. That is the headline from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, which just announced its growth forecast for the world. And their chief economist got up on the stage and did not sugarcoat a thing. It doesn't matter if you are a G20 economy, a non-G20 economy, if you are big or if you are a small
Starting point is 00:22:54 economy, if you are as open or relatively more close, we downgraded almost everybody. It's aware as the global economy grew by 3.4% in 2023 and 3.3% last year, it's now expected to slow to just 2.9% this year and the next. With, as it turns out, much of the slowdown being concentrated in China, Mexico, Canada, and especially the United States.
Starting point is 00:23:13 Which I will say, must've come as a surprise to Donald Trump. Because at one o'clock this morning, just hours before the OECD report, he posted, because of tariffs, our economy is booming. Like, it's just nevermind that the US economy shrank by 0.2% year over year last quarter. Now, assuming that the tariff rates remain the same,
Starting point is 00:23:28 the OECD is predicting that US growth will slow to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year, which is just wild numbers, because it's lower than the 2.2% that was predicted back in March and way lower than the 2.8% growth that we actually experienced in 2024. And while the OECD did not mention him by name,
Starting point is 00:23:43 it appeared to be clear that they were blaming Trump, because they were attributing the slowdown to the tariffs, the policy uncertainty, the decrease in that immigration and a quote sizable reduction in the federal workforce a la Doge cut. Also, one of the key takeaways is that they're projecting that inflation is going to shoot up from a relatively low 2.3% April to nearly 4% by the end of the year, with it then expected to cool down in 2026. Now to be fair, not everything is set in stone. There's a number of uncertain things. The report admits that US manufacturing may actually grow, but also saying it's only at the cost
Starting point is 00:24:12 of a shrinking consumer demand and corporate investment. And well, yes, the tariffs and Doge cuts will reduce the deficit. Those effects will reportedly be dwarfed by the deficit increase caused by slower growth in the GOP's budget plan. And of course, as you're hearing this, as we're gonna watch things play out,
Starting point is 00:24:26 it's important to remember that this is not happening in a bubble, because yes, China's economic growth is expected to slow down moderately, though it's from 5% to 4.7% and then 4.3%, but the government's taking steps to cushion its population from the pain, namely with things like subsidies for a trade-in program on consumer goods like mobile phones and appliances
Starting point is 00:24:42 as well as increased welfare transfers. So of course, with everything that we're talking about, uncertainty is a massive part of it, right? Everything that we're talking about, it's assuming that tariffs will remain at their rates from mid-May. If they go down, forecasts go up. And if they go even further up,
Starting point is 00:24:56 forecasts go even further down. And with that, you had OECD's secretary general explaining. Our report estimates that in a scenario in which US bilateral tariffs arise by an additional 10 percentage points on all countries as compared with the rights in force as of mid-May, global GDP would be about 0.3% lower after two years. But then my friends, is the end of your Tuesday evening. Wednesday morning dive into the news. Thank you for watching. I love yo faces. Stay safe out there and I'll see you right back here tomorrow.

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