The Philip DeFranco Show - The Trump Gala Shooting Fallout is Pathetic

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Starting point is 00:01:26 S-U-V-W, German-engineered for all. Donald Trump's streak of being targeted by the dumbest half-baked amateur assassins continued this weekend at the White House correspondence dinner with this time the shooter not even getting anywhere close to the president. Though understandably, everyone in the room still ran and hid, except this guy who just wasn't going to let anyone fuck with his dinner. But looking at the video that Trump released, it looked like the would-be assassin was using the run as far as he can into the Scientology Building TikTok strategy, which then got him arrested face-down ass-up ASAP. But then, or maybe because of that, almost immediately, before we really knew much. anything about what happened, the conspiracy theories were rolling in.

Starting point is 00:01:58 Right, literally hundreds of thousands of posts on social media debated whether or not the attack was a false flag, whether it was staged by the Trump administration for some reason or another. Some theorizing that maybe it was to boost his poll numbers or maybe to distract from the Iran war or maybe perhaps the most popular theory to justify building the White House ballroom. Though that last one, it was connected to Trump himself and army of right-wing influencers and John Federman, who might as well be one at this point, taking the opportunity to argue that the Democrats state need to back that ballroom now. It's drone proof, it's bulletproof class. We need the ballroom. That's why. Secret Service, that's why the military are demanding it. And then also, you know, a lot of people jumping on these clips that make it seem like some folks, like they knew that the shooting was gonna happen in advance. Or like this one where a Fox News reporter got cut off right as she was describing a conversation

Starting point is 00:02:37 she had before the shooting with White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt's husband. He kind of leaned over and said, you know, I watched you on TV, you're a great job. You need to be very safe. And he was very serious when he said that to me. And he kind of looked around the room and he said, you know, there are some... But that she later explained that her call got dropped because the room had notoriously bad reception. and Giata. To finish the story, he was telling me to be careful with my own safety because the world is crazy. But you also had plenty of people jumping on this comment that Caroline Levitt herself made earlier that night.

Starting point is 00:03:04 There will be some shots fired tonight. But it's pretty clear from the full context there that she's talking about Trump taking metaphorical shots at the press during his speech. Though interestingly, someone that was not on board the false flag narrative was Alex Jones. And he's someone who still thinks that there was a second shooter at the Butler rally. And he thinks that the false flag narrative's bullshit. No. You had too many of the DC police, secret service, all of them involved. the very small percentage of those guys are corrupt.

Starting point is 00:03:27 Something like that right out in the open. A registered Democrat, Trump derangement syndrome, 30-year-old teacher. Now, with all that said, as far as the guy who got arrested, we know that his name is Cole, Thomas Allen, and yes, he's alive, despite additional rumors that he got killed. He's also not been charged with using a firearm during a crime of violence and with assaulting a federal officer using a dangerous weapon, though I will say additional charges are expected.

Starting point is 00:03:45 And as far as what we've learned from people who know him, they've described him as a smart, kind, seemingly normal guy, and many were shocked to learn that he did this. We also know that he's 31 years old. He lived in Torrance, California, went to Caltech for engineering, and he just finished his master's in computer science. He even developed his own video games and was a part-time tutor for high school kids. As far as his motive, Alex Jones does appear to be right, at least in one regard, right? He does appear to be, if not a Democrat, at the very least, anti-Trump.

Starting point is 00:04:07 You've got federal records showing that he donated $25 to the fundraising platform, Act Blue, for Kamala Harris. Also, according to a White House official, Allen's sister told authorities that he attended to no kings protest in California and belonged to a social justice activist group called The Wide Awakes. She also reportedly said that he had a tendency to make radical statements and his rhetoric constantly referenced a plan to, quote, do something to fix the issues with today's world, which is pretty consistent with a manifestor that Alan supposedly sent to a family member about 10 minutes before the shooting signed Cole, Cold Force friendly federal assassin, Alan. And then it, he apologizes to his parents, his students and colleagues, hotel staff, and bystanders, and in his words, all those who suffered before I was able to attempt this, and all who may still suffer after regardless of my success or failure. But then that making it clear that his targets were administration officials, though, strangely, he excluded. FBI director Cash Patel. As far as why he said he did this, he explained, I'm a citizen of the United

Starting point is 00:04:53 States of America. What my representatives do reflects on me, and I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile, rapist, and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes. Which then led us to the next thing we have to talk about, which is the sit-down interview with 60 minutes. Because Nora O'Donnell, she read that quote to Trump, and this was his reaction. What's your reaction to that? Well, I was waiting for you to read that because I knew you would, because you're, you're, you're horrible people. Horrible people. I'm not a rapist. I didn't rape anybody. I'm not a pedophile. Excuse me.

Starting point is 00:05:22 I'm not a pedophile. You read that crap from some sick person? You should be ashamed of yourself reading that because I'm not any of those things. Mr. President, these are the gunman's words. Excuse me. You shouldn't be reading that on 60 minutes. You're a disgrace.

Starting point is 00:05:37 But go ahead. Let's finish the interview. With many people after that saying the Trump saying, I'm not a pedophile is kind of his Nixon, I'm not a crook moment. But one, we'll see there. And two, continuing with manifesto, So Alan expressed a remarkable amount of concern for people that he considers to be relatively innocent.

Starting point is 00:05:52 It's saying that he'd only shoot Secret Service, Hotel Security, Capital Police, and National Guard, if necessary, and non-lethaly if possible. Then adding, in order to minimize casualties, I will also be using buckshot rather than slugs, less penetration through walls. But then also, despite all that, he admitted, I would still go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary on the basis that most people chose to attend a speech by a pedophile, rapist, and traitor, and are thus complicit, but I really hope it doesn't come to that.

Starting point is 00:06:15 So yeah, if you take the manifesto at face value, the motive appears to be pretty straightforward. But also, you're seeing Trump and a host of White House officials pushing other narratives, one including that Alan was actually motivated by a hatred for Christians. He's radicalized. He was a Christian, a believer, and then he became an anti-Christian. Now, as far where that idea came from, it's a little unclear, but Alan does make a few references to religion in his manifesto.

Starting point is 00:06:37 First, he addresses the hypothetical objection to his attack that, quote, as a Christian, you should turn the other cheek. With him replying that turning the other cheek is for when you yourself are oppressed, saying, I'm not the person raped and at a date. detention camp. I'm not the fisherman executed without trial. I'm not a school kid blown up or a child starved or a teenage girl abused by the many criminals in this administration. Turning the other cheek when someone else is oppressed is not Christian behavior. It is complicity in the oppressor's crime. Then it appears he addresses the objection that he should, quote, yield unto Caesar what is Caesar's,

Starting point is 00:07:05 which is the biblical quote that's often cited as justify submission to political authority. With him replying, the United States of America are ruled by the law, not by anyone or several people. Saying insofar as representatives and judges do not follow the law, no one is required to yield them anything so unlawfully ordered. And then on top of all that, there's what appears to be Allen's blue sky account where he appears to identify as a Protestant and repeatedly compares Trump to the Antichrist. There with him quoting a Bible verse in response to Trump's AI picture of himself as Jesus writing, they will be tormented with burning sulfur in the presence of the holy angels and of the land. The smoke of their torment will rise forever and ever. There will be no rest day

Starting point is 00:07:36 or night for those who worship the beast and its image or for anyone who receives the mark of its name. So you have many saying it seems like he's the opposite of being anti-Christian. It seems like Alan was actually pretty devout. And you also have others who know him back to that up saying that he attended church regularly and he was active in the Caltech Christian fellowship. But then also, regardless, and in addition to that, you had Republicans blaming Saturday's attack on what they claim is dangerous rhetoric from Democrats in the left more broadly. But it's kind in the same line of argument that we saw after the Butler shooting and the Kirk assassination. People arguing that by calling Trump a fascist, a threat to democracy and a bunch of other harsh names or calling

Starting point is 00:08:05 out what he's doing with Iran or anything else, critics have stoked the flames of political violence. And so you're seeing Republicans now taking the opportunity to smear Democrats running for office in Michigan, Maine, and North Carolina ahead of the midterms. You even had CNN's Dana to bash throwing this argument at Representative Jamie Raskin, which a lot of people slammed her for. And as many of your fellow Democrats, have used some heated rhetoric against the president. And do you think twice about that when something like this happens? What rhetoric do you have in mind? Just talking about some of the fact that he, you know, is terrible for this country and so

Starting point is 00:08:36 and so forth. I understand that that's your Democratic right. But overall, do you have a responsibility? I have no personal problem with Donald Trump at all. I mean, I talk about the policies of this administration. And to that, and this part is just my opinion. I think I have one word for bash there, and that is clown. What a stupid question or even a stupid question to frame in that way,

Starting point is 00:08:56 even after you yourself noted that Trump calls the press the enemy of the people. The idea that elected Democrats are somehow like raising the temperature when they're saying like, hey, I think when we bombed a school and killed a bunch of kids, that was a bad thing, that that's raising the temperature. And when Democrats criticized Trump for sending troops into cities and all of a sudden, Americans got killed in broad daylight, that that is somehow bad in raising the temperature. What in the false equivalency bullshit? And the thing you'll often see is like, yeah, Trump says this, but what about this random internet person? You know how the elected president of the

Starting point is 00:09:26 United States, the representative for an entire country, or is supposed to be an entire party, is equal to a random TikToker? And also in their defense, elected Democrats have broadly condemned political violence after every single one of these high-profile attacks, including this one. This is a man who has tweeted giddily when people who were critics of him have died. This is a man who has threatened capital punishment against elected representatives. And I will say, fuck anyone that's a part of the media that is sanewashing and just playing into the false equivalency bullshit right now. That doesn't make you a better journalist. It makes you a fucking hack. And I'll leave that there for now, so I don't say anything I regret. But in the meantime,

Starting point is 00:10:00 you've also got people on both the left and right arguing about how hotel security allowed this attack to even happen at home. Because there's been a ton of mix reporting about whether or not proper measures were in place or if security was too lax. Right. And with that, reports have noted that there were multiple layers of protection at the event and the suspect was able to get past the outermost layer because he was staying at the Hilton, which was closed off to the public starting at 2 p.m., but still accessible to guests. But then from there, security gets tighter with people having to show tickets and go through other checks to get to the area where the dinner was held. And so with all that, you had acting attorney general Todd Blanche

Starting point is 00:10:26 telling NBC. Let's not forget that this, the suspect didn't get very far. He barely broke the perimeter. And by barely, I mean by a few feet. And so while this was extraordinarily dangerous and put a lot of lives at risk, and there's no doubt that that that's something that we're going to have to learned from over the next couple weeks. The system worked. We were safe. President Trump was safe. His Secret Service agents kept him safe.

Starting point is 00:10:50 You also had a former Secret Service detail telling the New York Times. This could have been a massacre. It wasn't because armed, trained professionals stood between the attacker and a ballroom full of people. The question is not how did he get close? The question people should be asking is why is everyone alive? It's because the security plan worked.

Starting point is 00:11:03 But then also with that, even the suspect himself was reportedly shocked at what he was able to get away with. Over the times pertaining writings where he was surprised that he was able to check into the hotel a day before with guns and a knife, presumably in his lugged. He also argued that a terrorist with more dangerous weapons would have been able to do much, much worse. And so some reports of question the security,

Starting point is 00:11:18 thinking, yeah, he was stopped, but it is very much worth asking, how did he even get that close? Or with, for example, the Washington Post noting that the dinner wasn't granted the highest security level called a National Special Security event. And while the dinner doesn't usually get that level of security, because so many government officials attend,

Starting point is 00:11:31 many think that it should. Also, as far as more specifics, according to the Post, Secret Service, were charged with protecting the ballroom and its perimeter, while DC police were handling road closures and traffic outside, but saying in between, there was no clear responsibility for the security of the thousands of guests and the rest of the Hilton property.

Starting point is 00:11:46 And with that, you would speaker Mike Johnson adding, I can tell you from a layman's perspective, it did look a little lax in terms of, as everyone's now noted, getting into the building. Now, we all came in, cabinet secretaries of government officials with their own details. We come in the back. So I didn't see the magnetometers and all that, but it doesn't sound like it was sufficient. But ultimately, that is where we are right now. It's going to be interesting to see what other information comes out. Do we see more significant fallout? And of course, in the meantime, I would really love to know your thoughts, opinions, reactions to all this in the comments down below. And then there's more we've got to dive into in

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Starting point is 00:13:45 And that was his talks were expected to take place in Islamabad over the weekend, but then, Ron wouldn't confirm that they would participate. And then you had Trump announcing that his negotiating team would no longer be making the trip. Writing on social media, too much time wasted traveling, too much work. Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their leadership. Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards. They have none.

Starting point is 00:14:03 If they want to talk, all they have to do is call. And so with that, one, it is a little bit amusing that he's complaining that there's a lot of infighting confusion over who's leading them when he is the reason, well, he and the Israelis are the reason that's the case. They just keep killing the leadership. And then two, you had Trump later telling reporters within 10 minutes at canceling the trip that he had gotten a much better proposal from Iran

Starting point is 00:14:21 than one received previously, saying they offered a lot, but not enough. And while he wouldn't elaborate there, he did reiterate that one of his conditions for ending the war is that Iran, quote, will not have a nuclear weapon. And he may have mentioned that specifically because according to later reporting by Axios,

Starting point is 00:14:33 this was basically the one issue the Iranian proposal failed to address. With that proposal instead, calling for an end of the war and the reopening of the street of Hormuz, including with an end to the US blockade, while also suggesting nuclear talks be held separately and at a later date. So Trump's apparent rejection to this offer, it really wasn't surprising since agreeing

Starting point is 00:14:47 would basically mean giving up his only leverage in the talks, right, the blockade, while also leaving Iran with its uranium stockpile. And again, this is a stockpile that in some ways only exists because of Donald Trump, but a stockpile that might be even bigger than we think. You see, because the 2015 nuclear deal that was negotiated under Obama,

Starting point is 00:15:01 it would have expired after 15 years. Thus enabling Iran to enrich uranium to bomb grade if it wanted to from 2030 onward. But at least 15 of those years, if Trump didn't, pull us out of that deal, Iran would have been unable to build a weapon. Largely, because they actually lived up to their promise to ship 12.5 tons of uranium or around 97% of its stockpile out of the country, leaving it with too little nuclear fuel to really do so even if it wanted to. But now, when you

Starting point is 00:15:21 fast forward to today, there's believed to be almost a thousand pounds of highly enriched uranium in the country. And actually, according to international expectors, there may be as much as 11 tons of uranium overall, which with enrichment would be enough to build 100 nuclear weapons, which is more than the estimated size of Israel's arsenal. And virtually all of this material accumulated in the years after Trump abandoned the Obama deal. And that's as this war in the U.S. and Israeli strikes last June, they haven't fundamentally changed the situation in terms of Iran's enrichment capabilities.

Starting point is 00:15:45 You've got one expert to advise the Obama White House on Iran's nuclear program telling the New York Times, yes, a lot of their top scientists have been killed. But they still have the basic industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons if they decide to do that. And that's especially true because even though the U.S. and Israel did significant damage to several Iranian nuclear facilities back in June, there's another enrichment facility whose status and locations unknown.

Starting point is 00:16:02 And those strikes actually led to the cancellation of a meeting in which Iran was meant to officially declare the existence of that site. Something that would reportedly be comparable in size to a grocery store and could be hidden almost anywhere underground in the country's vast mountains. And so with all this, you had Trump meeting with top national security officials today to discuss their options, including how and whether to respond to the latest Iranian proposal and whether to resume the U.S. bombing campaign in the country. Of course, the other option is maintaining the status quo and seeing who can deal with the economic pressure the longest. And actually with that, the U.S. blockade does

Starting point is 00:16:28 really appear to be taking a toll on Iran's already weak economy. With even the nation's most well-known economic newspaper predicting that the annual inflation could rise to 49 percent in a best-case scenario. And you've got the Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran's storing oil on floating tankers to avoid shutting down some of its production and resorting to other desperate methods to save space, including trying to send oil to China by train. Though also at the same time, the regime there really doesn't appear all that concern with the suffering of their people, and some economists think that they could last for another three to six months. Are you with that one London-based research organization telling the New York Times that Iran's

Starting point is 00:16:55 leaders, they still believe it can wait Trump out and that disruptions in the straight are more costly for Trump than for them. And at least as of right now, Iran seemingly standing their ground. Or with the country's foreign minister reportedly telling mediators in Pakistan over the weekend that Iran demanded the lifting of the U.S. as a precondition for talks. And this is, while at least publicly refusing to meet with the U.S., he's been engaging in diplomacy with a number of other countries. But he also reportedly spoke by phone with his counterparts in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and he traveled to Oman, which is the country on the other side of the Strait of And he's reportedly trying to convince the government there to support some sort of mechanism to jointly collect tolls from vessels that pass through the strait. While it's not clear that Oman's on board right now, in the meantime, you also had the Iranian Foreign Minister making his way to Russia today to meet with Vladimir Putin.

Starting point is 00:17:33 And of course that ends up being extra notable because Russia has been accused of actively helping Iran. But for now, while we wait to see what happens, you have a lot of people wondering, you know, what happens if the fighting continues, which then, speaking of continued fighting, we then have to talk about Israel and Lebanon. Because the ceasefire between those two countries, it took effect on April 16th, and last week, it was extended by three weeks. So you also had Israel retaining what it's described as the right to take all necessary measures in self-defense at any time against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. So seemingly with that, on Saturday you had Netanyahu ordering the Israeli military to vigorously attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing at least six. And yesterday you had an IDF spokesperson issuing evacuation orders for several villages in southern Lebanon, writing that residents must evacuate immediately or they would be endangering their life. With the IDF later announcing that it had carried out artillery and aerial strikes that it claimed targeted Hezbollah

Starting point is 00:18:15 operatives and sites used to advance attacks against IDF soldiers. And then also reporting that a Hezbollah drone attack against Israeli troops inside of Lebanon had killed one soldier and injured six, while other Hezbollah attacks unsuccessfully targeted Israeli territory. Then also on the other side, you had Lebanon's health ministry reporting that Israeli strikes had killed 14 people, including two children and two women and injured 37. But again, you had Netanyahu arguing that this is just self-defense saying, we are acting vigorously in accordance with arrangements agreed with the United States, and incidentally also with Lebanon, saying this means freedom of action not only to respond to attacks,

Starting point is 00:18:43 which is obvious, but also to preempt immediate threats and even emerging threats. So notably with that, not everyone in Israel agrees with Netanyahu. And you actually now have two opposition parties joining forces to try to take him down in the next election in October. Or with a leader of one of those parties saying at a press conference, we are standing here together for the sake of our children, and saying the state of Israel must change direction. Although to be very clear, like that different direction, it might not be that different, at least when it comes to foreign policy in Israel's wars.

Starting point is 00:19:06 One of these parties is described as more centrist and actually one is more right-way. But they have both criticized Netanyahu for not securing decisive enough victories against Iran and its proxy groups, including Hezbollah and Lebanon and Hamas and Gaza. But ultimately, that's going to be a semi-long road, right? We still have six months until that election. But then actually from that, we've got to dive back into domestic news because a federal judge said that the DOJ produced essentially zero evidence of any crime by Jerome Powell and a mountain of evidence that the entire investigation was just a tool to pressure him to resign or cut interest rates. We've done the judge blocking it, the DOJ ignoring him, a Republican senator finally forcing them to back down,

Starting point is 00:19:38 and now Trump's handpicked replacement could be confirmed within weeks. Right, we need to walk through this because it was a totally avoidable mess, and I think it also shows you where we are right now. Right, so this whole situation centered around Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, the same Jerome Powell who Trump himself appointed during his first term. And Powell's term is Fed chair, it expires May 15th, though notably he can stay on as a governor of the Fed board. But for months, Trump has been throwing a tantrum because Powell's repel refused to lower interest rates to the levels that Trump wants.

Starting point is 00:20:00 And so Trump's repeatedly demanded that Powell resigned before his terms up and he even threatened to fire him if he doesn't. So two important things here. First, Powell is literally just doing his job. Congress designed the Federal Reserve specifically to be insulated from political pressure because the alternative is Presidents just juicing the economy for short-term political wins at the cost of long-term stability. Literally every time in history someone's tried that it ended in inflation, recession, or both. And second, it's not even clear that Trump actually has the power to fire Powell. Better law only allows the president to remove a Fed chair for serious offenses, not policy disputes.

Starting point is 00:20:27 And so then, when the president, the threats didn't work, Trump's DOJ launched a criminal investigation into Powell. And the pretext was a two and a half billion dollar renovation to the Fed's headquarters that's gone over budget, plus testimony that Powell gave to Congress about the project last year. And I don't know if you remember it, but basically, nobody bought it. Most people that had eyes on this, they said this was obviously a pressure power to resign or get him to bend on interest rates. And that federal judge agreed, right? The judge ruled that the DOJ had produced essentially zero evidence that Powell committed any crime and a mountain of evidence that the agency was using its subpoenas to pressure Powell to resign or to cut rates. But the judge concluding that it was an

Starting point is 00:20:57 abuse of power and blocking the DOJ from serving subpoenas to the Fed. And that should have ended it. But it didn't. Trump just kept pushing and pushing like he does. And it might have actually worked, except for one Republican senator who decided that it was just enough was enough. Right, Senate Majority Leader Tom Tillis took a very rare public stand against Trump. He flat out refused to allow the confirmation of Trump's nominee to replace Powell, Kevin Warsh, until the DOJ dropped what Tillis called the bogus probe. So that was the leverage point, right? Trump has the votes to confirm warrly, and he needs Warsh confirmed before Powell's term expires on May 15th. Without Warsh, Trump's plan just collapses. So Tillis is no vote. It was effective.

Starting point is 00:21:27 a hold on the entire thing. And so what you saw is that on Friday, the DOJ finally came. Janine Piro, Trump's prosecutor for the District of Columbia, announced that she was ending the investigation. Though I will note, she added a caveat saying, I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts weren't doing so. She then also asked the Fed's Inspector General to review the cost overruns, which is interesting because the Fed's IG was already investigating it at Powell's direction. And also a previous review back in 2021, already found no evidence of wrongdoing. So Piro essentially announced that she was closing an investigation while pointing to another investigation that already happened and found nothing and

Starting point is 00:21:57 reserving the right to come back later. Because, you know, all of that, it makes sense. But more importantly for this story, yesterday you had Tillis announcing that he would now allow the confirmation process for Warsh to proceed. We worked a lot over the weekend to make sure that we were very clear that we had the assurances from the DOJ that I needed to feel like they were not using the DOJ as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed. So this will allow Mr. Warsh to move on with his confirmation,

Starting point is 00:22:23 time. Tillis also adding that he received specific assurances that the investigation would only restart if the fed's inspector general found serious wrongdoing and made a criminal referral, which it is a meaningful guardrail, assuming that the DOJ honors. And so yeah, I mean, essentially we're going to have to wait to see if they're being honest or whether they're waiting until Warsh is confirmed and then they just immediately reopen everything. So as far as the next steps, you have the Senate Bank Committee scheduling a vote on Warsh for this Wednesday, but he just needs to clear a committee before his nomination and move to the full Senate floor. And the entire goal is to get him confirmed before Powell's term expires May 15th, which is about two weeks from today. But again, we then have to tie. With our previous coverage in case you forgot, Warsh appears to have a $100 million plus net worth that he will not fully disclose. There are real questions about his independence, given that Trump has openly said that Warsh will deliver lower interest rates, and Senator Elizabeth Warren called him

Starting point is 00:23:04 Trump's sock puppet on the Senate floor. And so regardless of whatever happens with Powell, like understand, this whole situation with Warsh, it is a stress test for whether the Federal Reserve's independence, right, which is upheld under enormous political pressure for decades, survives the next Trump term. But hey, time will tell. And then there's even more that we've got to dive into

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Starting point is 00:23:47 this is my new favorite hot day tea. So yeah, snag yourself your new favorite tea over at beautiful bastard.com. But then, diving right back into the new To the news, Ronda Santes just dropped a brand new Florida congressional map at the last minute, and he could rush it through before Democrats can even challenge it. His plan leaves Democrats with four congressional districts while Republicans get 24, and that gives Florida Republicans four more districts than they have right now. And if it works, it could save the Republican House majority, but if it backfires, Florida Republicans could lose seats they've held for years. And with the Santis's team drawing these maps behind closed doors, right, there is a specific legal strategy behind this timing.

Starting point is 00:24:15 There's, let's say, two doctrines at play here. The first is something called the Purcell principle, a legal idea that keeps courts from overturning election laws too close to an election, because doing so would confuse voters. Right, so if DeSantis can get the maps passed and then run out the clock, the courts might decide to just not intervene at all before the midterms. And then second is the Apex doctrine,

Starting point is 00:24:31 which says that if Democrats challenge the maps, they have to depose all the lower level staffers into DeSantis' camp before they can touch the people actually calling the shots. You've got some analysts saying that's exactly how DeSantis helped flip the house back in 2022. And remember, because these maps have been drawn in secret, Democrats won't even know who to depose

Starting point is 00:24:45 or what documents to request. So the strategy here is clear, run out the clock and take the House by default. But again, this strategy, it comes with real risk for Republicans. When you redraw a state's map, to break up Democratic districts, you're spreading those voters across more districts. And I can do a lot, it can create more competitive seats, but it can also weaken the safe

Starting point is 00:25:00 Republican ones, because now those previously safe districts, they have more Democratic voters than that. And then, of course, the wildcard here is the independence. Across the country, at least right now, independents are increasingly leaning left. So if DeSantis spreads too many Democrats and left-leaning independents into Republican-held districts, he could end up handing Democrats' opportunities they didn't previously have. And this isn't like some theory. Trump's approval, it is already cratering under the weight of the Iran-war and rise of gas prices. And Republicans, they privately know that this could backfire. You would want to One Republican strategist putting it pretty bluntly saying,

Starting point is 00:25:25 in an environment like this where independents are breaking hard against us, our people aren't showing up and Democrats are pissed, we could wind up losing a net number of seats. Our message to Florida Republicans is F around and find out. If they go down the road of a dissentish dummymander, the Florida Republicans are gonna find themselves in the same situation as Texas Republicans who are on the run right now.

Starting point is 00:25:48 So a lot of play, it could be a huge win, but it could also backfire. But also, here's the thing, even if Florida backfires, Democrats still have to actually win these races. And right now, it doesn't seem like they can even agree on what to talk about. Because there are basically three competing messaging lanes

Starting point is 00:25:59 inside of the Democratic Party heading into the midterms. Lane one, the economy. The clearest and most evidence backed approach. Polls show only 29% of Americans approve that Trump's handling of the economy. People are feeling it everywhere. Gas, groceries, insurance, housing. For the midterms, give me what's most important to you.

Starting point is 00:26:14 The economy. I just feel like we haven't had any reprieve. I really feel that, you know, Americans need breathing room, and we don't have that. right now, it's really, really difficult for, you know, anybody to make it. That's how I feel. I mean, if I feel these pressures as a business person, I can only imagine what the middle class and lower middle class feel like. And this is the lane that Sherrod Brown's running for in his Ohio Senate comeback. Affordability and the working class. And again, it's the lane that has

Starting point is 00:26:41 the strongest evidence behind it because every poll shows that the economy is the number one issue that voters care about. And you have lane two, impeachment. Some Democrats want to talk openly about impeaching Trump again if they win the House. And honestly, even Trump knows it's coming. Because if we don't win the midterms, it's just gonna be, I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me. And while there's a lot of love and energy of holding people accountable, you also have some saying there might be an issue. Arguing that we're living under a twice impeached, twice acquitted, and still twice elected president. You've got people arguing that two prior impeachments didn't lead to a removal and to a lot of voters leading with impeachment as a midterm pitch can come across as the wrong priority, focused on Trump instead of real people's lives. And then you have Lane 3, the 25th Amendment.

Starting point is 00:27:20 And this is in part Representative Jamie Raskin's push and it's actually picked up some real momentum. 40% of House Democrats have actually signed on with 84 new supporters just last week. And if you step up across this video, you don't know. The 25th Amendment allows Congress to set up a special commission to determine whether the president is mentally fit to serve. And you've got some Democrats arguing that this approach actually meets voters where they are right now because public concern about Trump's mental health, it is real. You even have Republicans like Tucker Carlson and former Trump staff saying things like this out loud that something is off. And while you've got people like Elizabeth Warren saying that the 25th is worth looking at, she's also been clear that it can't

Starting point is 00:27:49 just be the Democrats. And so, of course, the bigger problem is that the 25th amendment requires the vice president and the cabinet to lead the charge. JD Vans and Trump's handpicked cabinet, they're not gonna do that. They have entire televised meetings where they're like, Mr. President, you're so awesome, sir. So even if Democrats sign on in larger numbers, the mechanism doesn't really work

Starting point is 00:28:03 without the people that Trump appointed willingly turning on him. So with all that in here, I'll say this is my opinion. I think the choice is clear, but also not completely black and white. I am personally in support of candidates that say, hey, we have to care about accountability and, you know, in addition to impeachment.

Starting point is 00:28:15 We're gonna actually have investigations and trials. Love that. But first and foremost, it has to be about what you can actually offer and do for the American people. And with that, the data is pretty clear. Voters are asking about groceries. They're asking about rent. They're asking about whether their kids can afford college, whether they could retire, whether they can take a sick day without losing their job. They're asking why we are in this war of choice that Trump unilaterally put us into. It's making everything,

Starting point is 00:28:37 including our gas, more expensive. And again, that's not to say that impeachment should be off the table, that it's crazy that people are talking about the 25th Amendment. We all have eyes and ears. We're seeing this guy. But we also have to make peace with the reality, and it's not the only reason it went down that way, but in 2024, democracy was on the ballot. And more people decided that Trump's words about making things more affordable and things like that, that mattered more to them. And honestly, and this is anecdotal, but I'd love to hear everyone else's own experiences. Every meeting, every gathering after the 2024 election where we're politicians, we're speaking to their constituents, you had people furious. People saying, yeah, we know Trump's

Starting point is 00:29:09 bad, but what are you going to do that's going to better lives or fix things? You have to stand for something, not just against something. And the Democrats of their own well-being, they better all get on the same page because they have a historic opportunity because there is a historically unpopular president in that White House right now. And given all this mid-decade gerrymandering and all these political moves, they might get opportunities they might not have otherwise. And if they don't pull this off, who knows what other suppression tactics Trump and his cronies are going to use after the midterms? Or we've been seeing and talking about what they've been doing state by state. But then, my friends, you beautiful bastards, is your Monday Philip DeFranco show. And hey, actually,

Starting point is 00:29:41 while you're supporting the show by hitting that like button, subscribing for the daily videos if you knew here and jumping into those comments, let me say this. You should also go subscribe to philiptofranco.com before you go outside to touch some grass or go back to your doom scrolling. We've got a growing community of now 45,000 plus on there and on substack. My videos and even extra content, it goes straight to your inbox, no algorithm in the middle to suppress and keep us apart. You can even go completely ad free if you want a paid account, but that's completely optional. But hey, that said, thank you for watching. I love yo faces and I'll see you right back here tomorrow.

The Philip DeFranco Show - The Trump Gala Shooting Fallout is Pathetic

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