The Philip DeFranco Show - The Video That Exposed Tucker Carlson in Seconds

Starting point is 00:00:00 We have to talk about how Tucker Carlson just got exposed on Trump straight to his face and the fallout there, Iran's firing on U.S. ships after Trump announced Project Freedom with things just spiraling, and how Congress might actually be about to ban itself from betting on prediction markets, but we break down why that's still probably not going to be enough to stop insider trading on the war. First, I have an exciting announcement and update for you. We did our sold-out live show in New York on Friday, and I'm like, I'm still buzzing. I went in prepared and I was hoping that it would be a good night, but it was honestly one of the best nights I've ever had on stage in like my 20 years of doing this.

Starting point is 00:00:26 The energy in that room, right, the connection, the fact that I got to actually stand there after the show and meet y'all and hear people, you know, talk about their connection to the show in real life, and it's not just numbers on a screen, right, not just some comments section, not an algorithmic, ranked feed, just in person, it was amazing. We had people that were, you know, coming alone, making friends in line, couples, making it a date night, people messaging us afterwards saying it was cathartic, it was fun, it was great. So I'm saying like it felt like a family gathering, but one you actually wanted to go to. The one thing that actually makes me more excited is that I get to do this with even more of y'all in 12 different cities at 12 different dates. And you can be a part of it if you go get your tickets right now at crashingoutor.com.

Starting point is 00:01:01 Some selling up faster than others are we have Seattle, Portland, Boston, Philly, San Francisco, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Paul, D.C., and Pittsburgh. So definitely just before it's too late, go to crashingouture.com, get your tickets. Come crash out with us. I promise you, you will be glad you did. But with that said, there's a lot we've got to dive into today, starting with this. Donald Trump has now ordered the military to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran, they may once again be targeting U.S. troops, and other countries in the region. But also at the same time, according to the White House, the war actually ended way back on April 8th.

Starting point is 00:01:33 Or at least, that's what Trump told lawmakers on Friday to argue that he didn't need their permission to continue said war, despite it being the 60th day since he formally notified Congress of strikes against Iran, which according to the war powers resolution of 1973, is generally the longest American forces can remain engaged in hostilities without congressional authorization. But again, Trump said that the conflict had been terminated

Starting point is 00:01:50 since the ceasefire took effect on April 8th, even though his blockade of the Strait of Hermuz, which is an act of war under international law, remains in place. Not to mention the fact that just a few hours after he said that the US wasn't at war with Iran, you had him saying to supporters in Florida, you know, we're in a war because I think you would agree,

Starting point is 00:02:06 we cannot let lunatics have a nuclear weapon. And so of course, you again, have many experts saying that the administration's legal argument, it doesn't hold up. And even actually, several Republicans are growing increasingly skeptical. There also, many experts and lawmakers have argued that this war was illegal

Starting point is 00:02:20 from the very beginning. And now, as it was then, there's nothing actually stopping Trump from doing what he wants, including setting the country's terms for a deal. And with that, you had him writing on social media on Saturday that he would soon be reviewing a new proposal from Iran and adding, I can't imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to humanity and the world over the last 47 years. And the proposal that he was reportedly looking at was a 14-point plan rehashing Iran's earlier demands, including by calling for the U.S. to withdraw its forces from near Iran's borders and its naval blockade of Iranian ports,

Starting point is 00:02:49 except Iranian involvement in the management of the Strait of Hormuz and include Lebanon in the ceasefire and any subsequent peace deal. And actually on that last point, they reportedly demanded that a final agreement be reached within 30 days. But maybe most notably, according to Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, there were absolutely no details regarding the country's nuclear issues and the proposal. So on Sunday, you had Trump telling an Israeli media outlet that, as he predicted, the proposal wasn't acceptable to him, reportedly saying, the Iranians want to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with what they've offered, saying there are things I can't agree to. But you also had Iran's foreign ministries saying that it's reviewing a U.S. response to its proposal. And while the administration, they haven't confirmed that they've sent a response, either way, it appears that a deal right now, it just kind of remains. remains out of reach. And in the meantime, there have been more attacks threatening the ceasefire.

Starting point is 00:03:27 Yesterday, for example, you had the first reported attacks on ships in or near the strait since April 22nd. You had a cargo ship claiming it had been attacked by multiple small boats, while another vessel said that had been hit by unknown projectiles. And then you had Trump announcing his latest effort to reopen the strait of her moves on social media. With Trump, presenting it as a humanitarian effort to be undertaken on behalf of the rest of the world, seemingly, including nations that he's previously criticized for not doing something about the strait themselves. Right, he claimed that countries from all over the world, which he described as neutral and innocent bystanders that had done nothing wrong,

Starting point is 00:03:54 had asked the U.S. for help, writing. But the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways so they can freely and ably get on with their business. And he said that this process, Deb Project Freedom, would begin Monday morning Middle East time, which is not a time zone. But you know, you get what he was going for, maybe. And he also claimed that his representatives were having very positive discussions

Starting point is 00:04:14 with Iran before finally adding, if in any way this humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will unfortunately have to be dealt with forcefully. And with that, you also had U.S. Central Command saying in a statement that its forces would begin supporting Project Freedom. And adding, U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members. But also with this, very notably, the military reportedly will not actually be escorting ships through the strait. That is, at least for now.

Starting point is 00:04:41 Suncom commander, Admiral Brad Cooper did reportedly present a plan for that last week, but then, at the very last minute, Trump opted for a more cautious approach, which will instead have the military advising ships on how to avoid mines while passing. through the strait and standing ready to intervene if Iran attacks them. And so with that, you had one administration official telling Axios that the rules of engagement for American forces in the region, they've changed. Or with troops now authorized to strike immediate threats against ships that cross the strait, including IRGC fastboats or Iranian missile positions.

Starting point is 00:05:06 And then you had another official reportedly telling the outlet that Trump decided on this option after becoming fed up with the no deal, no war stalemate in Iran saying, the president wants action, he doesn't want to sit still, he wants pressure, he wants a deal. And you also had a source described as being close to the president claiming, this is the beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians. Right and saying that this so-called humanitarian mission to a free ship stranded in the strait means if the Iranians do something, they will be the bad guys and we will have the legitimacy to act. Which could also honestly kind of make it sound like these civilian-run commercial vessels are being used as bait.

Starting point is 00:05:36 Because even as the U.S. military, they've been hesitant to enter the strait. The U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center, they reportedly advised commercial ships today to cross the waterway while sticking in the territorial waters of Oman. Right, saying it had set up an enhanced security area. And you have the organization also warning ships to stay away from the usual shipping lanes, which, quote, should be considered extremely hazardous due to the presence of mines that have not been fully surveyed and mitigated. But also, understand, it may ultimately be hazardous almost anywhere as Iran responds. Are you have one senior official claiming that any interference in the stray would be seen as a ceasefire violation?

Starting point is 00:06:05 And you had the IRGC Navy issuing a new map of the Strait of Hormuz, which it said showed the area under its control. With also a top military commander telling commercial ships and oil tankers not to pass through without coordinating with Iran's armed forces and data. We warn that any foreign armed force, especially the aggressive U.S. military, if they intend to approach or enter the strait of Hormuz, will be targeted and attacked. Right, and then, with all this, early today, you had the Iranian government claiming to have stopped a U.S. destroyer from entering the strait. With a semi-official Iranian news agency even reporting that two missiles hit a U.S. ship sailing through the strait after ignoring a warning from Iran's navy. Though then, Iranian outlets later claimed that the military had only fired warning shots against U.S. ships that had attempted to approach the strait. And then also you had sentcom firmly denying that any American naval vessels have been struck.

Starting point is 00:06:44 And even later reporting that U.S. Navy guided missile destroyers were actually operating in the Persian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz and dadding. As a first step, two U.S. flag merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey. Now, Iran responded by issuing a statement claiming that no commercial vessels or tankers have traversed the waterway over the past few hours, saying claims by U.S. officials are completely lies. But whatever the case may be there, it now appears that Iran's following through on their threats with new attacks on ships in the strait and energy facilities in the region. Right, Sincom, for example, saying that the Navy had shot down Iranian cruise missiles and drones, fired. fired at ships and commercial vessels in the strait, also reporting that army helicopters to show right six Iranian military speedboats

Starting point is 00:07:19 that had threatened the vessels. You also had the UAE issuing its first missile alert since the ceasefire began. It's saying that it downed three missiles fired from Iran over its territorial waters with a fourth one crashing into the sea. And the country's largest port and oil storage area who was reportedly attacked by an Iranian drone

Starting point is 00:07:31 sparking a major fire. But the foreign ministry then issuing a statement saying they reserved the right to respond to Iranian attacks. Also you had Oman State News Agency reporting that a residential building housing company employees was targeted in an attack. And you even had a South Korean cargo ship catching fire after an explosion in the news.

Starting point is 00:07:44 So that one might have actually been an accident with authorities saying that the blast originated on the port side of the ship's engine room. But that said, it still led to Trump writing on social media. Perhaps it's time for South Korea to come and join the mission. So ultimately at least for now, this kind of appears to be the most intense exchange of fire that we've seen since the ceasefire began. So as a result, oil and gas prices are likely to keep rising. For now, we're going to have to wait to see if any of this changes anything for either side. Or does it lead to a deal? Does it just lead to more continued fighting?

Starting point is 00:08:08 What's going to happen? The walls, right, with the other ceasefire connected to this whole situation? The one between Israel and Lebanon, the fighting never really stopped. In fact, you have many experts saying that Israel is doing what it did to Gaza to southern Lebanon, continuing to order evacuations, occupying the territory, and destroying homes and buildings, while continuing to launch new strikes with massive loss of life. So you have the Israeli military claiming that they're just targeting infrastructure and positions belonging to Hezbollah, which, according to the Israeli military has launched hundreds of drones, rockets, and anti-tank missiles at Israel,

Starting point is 00:08:33 and has killed at least 17 Israeli soldiers since early March. Though then on the other side, just since last Thursday, Israeli strikes have killed 77 in Lebanon, according to the country's health ministry, with a total death toll now being around 2,700. And as many European countries have somewhat spoken out against Israel, there are also those who think that Netanyahu may be emboldened by the unflinching support from the United States. Especially under Trump, who many see as a president, who finally listened to Netanyahu's arguments for starting a war with Iran. Arguments that you now have Obama telling the New Yorker that he also heard when he was in the Oval Office.

Starting point is 00:09:01 And now you're also seeing more and more people on the right, leaning into this idea that Trump basically got tricked into launching the war by Israel. With, for example, Tucker Carlson giving an interview to the New York Times in which he claimed that Trump is being held hostage by Netanyahu and had no choice in starting the war. And in this, he described a conversation that he supposedly had with Trump shortly before the war began in which the president said,

Starting point is 00:09:19 he said, it's gonna be all right. And I said, he said, do you know how I know that? And I said, no, he said because it always is. You and Tucker's stressing, albeit without getting into details, that most of the pressure for war, it came from outside of the White House and that people on the inside

Starting point is 00:09:32 were just too cowardly to resist it. In fact, in one of the wackier, we'll call it moments of the interview, he said that Trump turns people into cowards with his supernatural powers. And there is a kind of quality that he has that's spellbinding. And I think it probably literally is a spell.

Starting point is 00:09:45 And the effect is to weaken people around him and make them more compliant and more confused. And I've experienced this myself. You spend a day with Trump and sort of like, you're in this kind of dreamland. It's like smoking hash or something. It's interesting. Very interesting.

Starting point is 00:10:00 And there may be a supernatural component to it. I'm not a theologian. But it's real. And anyone who's been around him can tell you it's real. Unfortunately, Lulu Garcia Navarro didn't press him on specifically which kind of spell casting this was. Right do we talking like Harry Potter style, maybe more something like Lord of the Ringsie, or perhaps more of a Macbeth witchcraft kind of situation.

Starting point is 00:10:16 Because of course, the public has a right to know what kind of sorcery their presidents engaged in. Though really, it actually seems more likely that Tucker is pointing to something more Christian in flavor, or rather anti-Christian. And when Garcia Navarro brought this idea up, she fact-checked him right there on the spot. You know, you've been talking on your show about whether Trump is the Antichrist. I have not said that. Here's a leader who's mocking the gods of his ancestors, mocking the god of gods and exulting himself above them, Could this be the Antichrist?

Starting point is 00:10:42 I actually did not say, could this be the Antichrist? Could this be the Antichrist? Well, who knows? I don't know where that comes from, but I know that those words never left my lips because I'm not sure I fully understand what the Antichrist is if there's just one. I actually tried to understand it. I may have said some are asking that. I'm not weighing on that because I don't understand it.

Starting point is 00:11:06 Now, whether you bias defense or not, one argument that some people are making is that his statements about Trump, they have been at least as though probably more inflammatory than former FBI director James Comey's seashell post. Would that be in the Instagram photo that he posted where seashells are arranged to read 86-47, which much of the right interpreted, or at least are saying they interpreted as code for advocating for Trump's murder. Though many others say that is a reach. Noting that 86 is a restaurant term, that people have been calling for impeachments this way.

Starting point is 00:11:31 But regardless, he had Comey taking it down the very same day, and he apologized. But that did not get Trump off of Comey's ass, and in fact, Comey ended up getting charged by Trump's DOJ recently. So then bringing all this together, you at CNN's Jake Tapper bringing on U.S. attorney, Janine Piro, and he played the same clip of Tucker suggesting that Trump might be the antichrist. Whatever Tucker Carlson says is not relevant to me right now. I really don't care about what he says. I'm really not here as a political pundit anymore. I'm here as a prosecutor. My job is to not talk about talking heads and what they say. Meanwhile, you had acting attorney general Todd Blanche doing an interview with NBC, and they also made a similar point,

Starting point is 00:12:05 noting that dozens of products on Amazon contain the numbers 86, 47, but only Comey has been charged. That's posted constantly. That phrase is used constantly. There are constantly men and women who choose to make threatening statements against President Trump. Every one of those statements do not result in indictments, of course. There are facts, there are circumstances, there are investigations that have to take place. And so you now have critics here and both of those answers going, okay, yeah, that's meaningless bullshit. And really the only difference is that Comey is Trump's political in him. And Blanche, he keeps vaguely suggesting that there's other evidence beside the

Starting point is 00:12:35 seashells that incriminates Comey, but neither he nor the indictment itself have actually hinted at what that might be. But also, you know, with everything that we've said, as unhinged as a number of the people that we have heard from are. There is at least one thing Tucker said that I think we can all agree. If you had to sit across from Ted Cruz, it's just there's something about him. It's just like repulsive. I mean, it's like disgusting. Like if you entered a men's room and Ted Cruz was there, you would be like, I can hold it. I'm leaving. And then there's more we've got to dive into in just a minute. But first, let me thank a sponsor and say, you ever feel one weird pain and you immediately start negotiating with your body. Like, hey, maybe just fix yourself and we'll never speak of this again.

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Starting point is 00:14:16 because they want to get up to three more Republican seats in the U.S. House. Right, and just to get us all on the same page again, last week you're the Supreme Court flipping section two of the Voting Rights Act, just on its head. Ruling that Louisiana's majority minority district amounted to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Democrats called it a death sentence for the VRA. Trump basically told state legislatures to take the win and run with it, and what you saw was Alabama hearing him. Right, with Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall filing motions literally the day after

Starting point is 00:14:39 the Louisiana decision. And he's looking to appeal the court rulings that had blocked Republican drawn maps from 2023. And while those court-ordered maps were supposed to be locked in until after the 2030 census, they might not survive this week. Right, you've got Governor K. Ivy saying the special session will wrap within five days. And when Republicans currently hold five of Alabama's seven house seats, they think that these new maps will give them all of them.

Starting point is 00:14:55 With Marshall adding that Alabama's primaries are on May 19th saying that the timing is critically important, which is essentially just code for if the courts don't bless this fast, they're stuck. And so for the Democrats that are hoping to slow this down, that tight window is kind of their best chance. So with this power grab, I would say do not count on it. Right in Tennessee, they're playing the same game, but from a slightly different angle. You see, Governor Bill Lee's special session kicks off tomorrow on their target is District 9, which is currently the only Democratic held seat in the state. And the VRA was really the main thing that was keeping their District 9 intact.

Starting point is 00:15:20 And so with that protection weakened, you have Republicans seeing a path to flipping it and just giving themselves a full sweep of Tennessee House delegation. Right, and they've been waiting for this. This is not new behavior from them. Back in 2022, Tennessee Republicans carved national into three pieces and flipped the fifth district. And now they're eye in Memphis, which is the most heavily black city in the state. But also Tennessee has a timing problem that its own lawyers are openly worried about. For the candidate qualifying period, ended in March. Primaries hit in August, and so Democrats are hoping that the courts just simply rule that it's too close to election day to bulldoze the map. Now, Lee, for his party is calling it a representation issue saying that we owe it to Tennesseans to ensure our congressional districts accurately reflect the will of Tennessee voters,

Starting point is 00:15:54 Which, I will say, sounds noble until you literally, you look at a map and you go, oh, the one district you're specifically targeting here is the one anchored in a majority black city. And honestly, this part, you know, it's just my opinion. I'd appreciate if everyone was just honest at this point. Right, Trump and his conservative Supreme Court, they've pushed the country into an endgame situation. Everyone's got to fight for power, for power's sake, though obviously for different reasons. Trump and Republicans, they're not dumb. They're looking at the polls. They're like, oh, my God, everything that Trump's doing right now, it's just so unpopular.

Starting point is 00:16:20 If Republicans want a chance to not just be completely wiped out by the electorate, we got to suppress the. the vote, we gotta change things up. And on the Democratic side, I think more Democrats are realizing, oh, we can't fight with our hands behind our back. If we wanna get to it tomorrow, where among other things, there's a national gerrymander ban, we've gotta fight for power's sake now, otherwise we're gonna get completely wiped out.

Starting point is 00:16:37 But if you don't do something now, door will get closed and you'll never get another chance. And with all this, you've got black lawmakers and civil rights groups not being subtle about what they think this is. Senator Raphael Warnock, for example, from a home state of Georgia said that the redistricting fight is a continuation of the effort

Starting point is 00:16:49 to roll back the civil rights movement and saying that this is not a new method, it's a Jim Crow method. Also, even before the Supreme Court ruling, you had Congressman Shamari figures saying that gutting section 2 would, quote, drastically reduce the number of realistic opportunities to elect black members to Congress. And Alabama Democrats are calling the special session a blatant power grab by Republican leadership in Montgomery to eliminate seats held by black Democrats. And then again with this news, of course, we have to remember it is more than Tennessee and Alabama. And I mean that both for the 26 midterms as well as the 28 general election.

Starting point is 00:17:15 Cards are being played right now that are forcing hands and things have to get crazy before they can get normal again. And so it seems at least until the end of 2028, extreme gerrymandering is just on the menu. It's the name of the game. But then also, you know, while we're talking about types of crackdowns or at least attempted crackdowns, we then have to talk about the Supreme Court blocking a ban on mail order abortion pills, at least for now.

Starting point is 00:17:33 Because this new ruling, it's subject to change in just as soon as maybe a week or so. And all of this is stepping from a case out of Louisiana because the state previously sued the FDA, arguing that its policy allowing people to receive Mitha Pristone by mail, it violates its near total abortion ban. And what you ended up seeing last Friday is that a federal appeals court sided with Louisiana. They blocked mail orders of a vote abortion pills and that ruling said, every abortion facilitated by FDA's actions

Starting point is 00:17:54 cancels Louisiana's ban on medical abortions and undermines its policy that every unborn child is human being from the moment of conception and is therefore a legal person. But as you could imagine, that decision was incredibly controversial. You even had the AP calling it the biggest jolt to abortion policy in the US since Roe v. Wade was overturned, especially since there's actually very little precedent for a federal court to overrule scientific regulations of the FDA, which first allowed people to obtain abortion medication via telehealth during the COVID pandemic in 2020 and they finalize that rule in 2023. So over the weekend you had drug manufacturers taking the issue to the Supreme Court asking them to reverse this ban and reinstate the ability to get

Starting point is 00:18:26 Mithopristone via mail and telehealth. And you had Dancoe laboratories arguing that the decision injects immediate confusion and upheaval into highly time-sensitive medical decisions. And you had Gen BioPro calling it an unfounded and baseless attack on an essential medication. And all of that turned into this morning, the Supreme Court temporarily restoring mail access to those pills. But if you support that they did that, do not get too excited. Because the court, they didn't just overnight become a bunch of pro-choice liberals that all of a sudden care about women. Justice Samuel Alito, he simply put the lower court's ruling

Starting point is 00:18:51 on pause until May 11. So that way the court has more time to consider its next steps and weigh the emergency appeals. And also ordering the parties in the case to file responses by Thursday. So while you have places like Planned Parenthood supporting this temporary decision, they still condemned the legal traps

Starting point is 00:19:03 that continue to restrict abortion access. And you had their president, Alexis McGill Johnson, saying, while Mitha Pristone access returns to where it was on Friday morning, the whiplash and chaos that patients and providers are navigating have already had consequences for people's lives and futures. Because this notably,

Starting point is 00:19:16 it comes as medication abortion's been under a string of attacks from courts, lawmakers, and more. Right in March, for example, Senator Josh Hawley introduced legislation that would effectively ban the abortion pill, calling it a safety issue. But there, you immediately had reproductive experts noting that the science that Holly cited when pushing for this is highly questionable at best. Because Mithopristone's approved for use in nearly 100 countries, and there are four decades of peer-reviewed research that have proven it to be safe. And also, just to get technical and specific, while Mifapristone is specifically the drug getting caught up in all these legal battles, it's actually used with the second drug

Starting point is 00:19:43 called Misoprostol. When those two were used together, they're 93 to 99 percent effective at completing medication abortion. But ultimately, while we wait to see what happens with the Supreme Court, we really shouldn't be surprised. But it makes sense that Republicans are taking aim at this. It's the most common method of abortion. If you can chip away at access to the pill, you chip away at abortion access overall. And these telehealth prescriptions of Mitha Pristone have been especially crucial for access since Roe v. Wade was overturned. In fact, earlier this year, there was a study that found that there were over 1.1 million abortions in the United States in 2025, meaning that numbers were essentially unchanged from 2024 and actually marked the highest number

Starting point is 00:20:13 of abortions provided since 2009. Very notably, travel across state lines from those who live in abortion ban states, it decreased between 2024 and 2025, while telehealth prescriptions to states with bans increased. An area of many noting that shield laws which blue states have passed to protect health care providers who prescribe those drugs to out-of-state patients have helped the boost. So you've got the Goopmocker Institute saying, Telehealth across state lines has played an increasingly critical role in ensuring access to abortion care in a national landscape where many states have total bans or other restrictive policies. It's saying extending shield laws to telehealth provision is vital to ensuring that patients can continue to access that care they need, especially if they live in states with total abortion bans. Well, the court, you know, it's actually upheld Mitha Prestone access before. What comes next here, that's unclear.

Starting point is 00:20:52 And it's one that we have to keep eyes on because, I mean, it really could determine the future of reproductive care access in this country. But then from that, the final thing that I want to talk about today is all this news around prediction markets. Starting with the fact that a few days ago, the Senate actually made a real move. There was a unanimous resolution banning members and staff from participating in prediction markets. And the official rationale is that there are concerns about insider trading by people who have access to non-public information about exactly the kinds of events these markets settle on. Things like wars, sanctions, confirmation votes, cabinet picks. And actually, both Kauci and Polly Market immediately back the resolution. Kalshi's CEO posted that the company already proactively blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading and called the resolution a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard.

Starting point is 00:21:30 And you had Pollymarket saying that its rulebook already prohibits this kind of trading and that codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry. But also the counterpoint there is what would we expect them to say? No! We want insider trading and to be shut down and for people to not try. trust and use their money on us. But also here's the deal. There is a 52% problem, right? And that's something we learned about thanks to last week's report

Starting point is 00:21:51 from the anti-corruption data collected. Because you see, they look specifically at long-shot bets on polymarket. Wagers a $2,500 or more placed at odds below 35%. And across a platform, those long shots, they paid off around 14% of the time, roughly what you'd expect from long shots. But get this. On political markets, the long-shot success rate jumped to 25%. And on bets tied to military or defense-related events, specifically,

Starting point is 00:22:12 the success rate was 52%. And see you had experts who reviewed the data saying a 52% hit rate on long odds, defense bets, it's essentially statistically impossible without insider trading. And you don't even have to just rely on the statistics. Earlier this year, you had a U.S. Special Forces soldier indicted for allegedly using insider information about the capture of Nicholas Maduro to win roughly $400,000 on polymarket. And among other things, there was also a string of suspicious betting patterns around events in the Iran war that multiple news outlets flag. And so the Senate's self-imposed ban, it handles it most, maybe the most visible end of all this.

Starting point is 00:22:41 Members of Congress and their staff. But the data suggests that the actual leaks somewhere kind of, let's say broader. I think the executive branch, intelligence community, the military, and at this point, I mean, anyone in those orbits who knows somebody with a polymarket account. And so in the meantime, you've got Cali she, right,

Starting point is 00:22:53 the US regulated prediction market, they're trying to get ahead of the next wave of pressure. Just this morning, the company announcing a series of new measures aimed at keeping minors off the platform. And while anyone under 18, they're technically already banned, you had Calci acknowledging that some kids, they've been getting around age verification by using their parents, siblings, or other relatives IDs.

Starting point is 00:23:09 And so the new rollout, it includes face ID by default for users with the feature enabled, selfie-based document verification, two-factor authentication prompts, and a new feature that lets users check whether someone else is logged in with their ID. You have their blog post explicitly referencing a bipartisan bill from Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Dave McCormick that would ban federally elected politicians from prediction markets, beef up, age verification, and add consumer protections. Kauci is saying that it's proactively implementing measures outlined in the bill and more. But then also regarding age, one of the bigger things being talked about right now is the age floor. And that's because over the past few weeks, the NBA, PGA, and NCAA, they've all been lobbying federal regulations. to raise the minimum betting age to 21.

Starting point is 00:23:45 The NCAA, they want the floor lifted to 21 for college sports specifically, and the NBA and PGA, they want 21 across all sporting events. But there, you would Kalshi's CEO telling Axios that he wants the floor to stay at 18, arguing that prediction markets aren't fundamentally different from trading equities. claiming in his words, most of the activity you see is healthy.

Starting point is 00:24:01 But we also noted that Kalshi is rolling on features that suggest deposit limits to users showing signs of unhealthy trading, plus a new tool called Inner Circle that lets you share your trading activity with friends and family. You know, a tool that it sounds like you definitely need, if your product isn't ruining lives. Like this part's my opinion,

Starting point is 00:24:15 but it literally sounds like you're describing a tool that's like, hey, we're a parasite and we're gonna bleed ya, but we don't wanna bleed you completely dry. But that said, right? There is a regulatory split that's forming here. On one side, you've got the incremental approach, right, ban Congress, tighten age verification,

Starting point is 00:24:31 add disclosures, punish individual cases of insider trading as they pop up. And you've got Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer pushing in that direction, but also it looks like he wants to kind of cast a wider net. He's calling on the House to pass its own ban on the White House to assign a sweeping federal prohibition that would cover every government official, staff, or an employee in the executive branch. And he singled out the West Wing specifically as a glaring

Starting point is 00:24:50 conflict of interest. You also have Republicans in both chambers co-sponsoring various bills that would at least stop federal officials from trading on insider information or betting on political events. But then also on the other side, you've got Senator Chris Murphy, right, who's basically arguing at the incremental approach, it can't work in principle. And so his bill, it would ban entire categories of bets, like wagers on government actions, terrorism, war, assassinations, or any event where someone could plausibly know or control the outcome. And his argument is, hey, staff has inside information. White House staff has more inside information. Their friends have it. Their friends' friends have it. And so, in his words, you can't fix this problem by banning people from trading. You can only

Starting point is 00:25:24 fix this problem by banning the markets to begin with. That, my friends, you beautiful bastards, is the end of your Monday, Philip DeFranco show. Though I'll end on two quick things. One, of course, yes, this is a new show, but it's also a conversation. So anything that stood out to you today that you want to dive into, leave some comments down below. And two, remember, I'd love to see you in person. at crashingoutdoor.com. No matter what you do, let me just say, thank you for watching. I love yo faces,

Starting point is 00:25:45 and I'll see you right back here tomorrow.

The Philip DeFranco Show - The Video That Exposed Tucker Carlson in Seconds

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