The Pomp Podcast - #1005 Dylan LeClair Explains The Celsius Crash

Episode Date: June 15, 2022

Dylan LeClair is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system.    In this conversation, we why Celsius crashed this past week and how long will Bitcoin price continue to fall. Dylan joins us every Tuesday on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Dylan references throughout the interview, go to "The Best Business Show: LIVE" YouTube Channel ======================== BCB Group is the leading payment services partner for the digital assets industry. BCB Group provides payment services in 30+ currencies, FX, cryptocurrency liquidity, digital asset custody and BLINC, which is BCB’s free, instant settlements network for the BCB client ecosystem. Find out more by visiting bcbgroup.com/pomp ======================= Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 crypto browser. No extension required. Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support, and more.    Download the Brave privacy browser at brave.com/Pomp, and click the wallet icon to get started. =======================

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan LeClaire is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management. He also writes a newsletter with Bitcoin Magazine. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, on-chain metrics. We talk about Bitcoin's price, the market structure, and what to expect in the coming weeks. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by FTX US. FTX.US is the safe, regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. You can

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Anthony Pompliano runs POMP Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of POMP Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by POMP or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. My friend, Mr. Dylan LeClaire, how are you? Pomp, you're looking sharp. Hey, man, listen, you got to have the bear market costume on.

This exact suit and tie defeated the 2018 bear market. It's back for the 2022 bear market, and I'm not taking it off till we win. So how are you? Doing great. What a time to be alive. What a time to be alive. I first want to talk to you about Celsius. You have become the Celsius sleuth on the internet. I feel like you continue, just you're all over this.

What the hell is going on? Yeah, a lot of craziness. I mean, it was never my intention to pick a bone with a certain company or a group of individuals, but just kind of the events that transpired over the last couple of months. I mean, I follow the markets very closely. I mean, I really enjoy it.

And post-Luna collapse, There was an increasing amount of signs that there were certain counterparties in the space, certain companies that potentially had some troubles. I mean, just anecdotally, there's $20 billion of stable coins that weren't stable and that went to zero. So a lot of, you know, and that also promised a 20% yield, right? So I had some questions, I had some worries, and I posted it back in, I think, May 11th. 11th. And I said, Hey, you know, there, there might be some announced insolvencies. I wouldn't want to have any yield on a kind of a crypto yield product, not your keys, not your coins. And so, you know, ultimately kind of with the events that transpired from, from that time until

now some of those worries, you know, proved to be correct and Celsius has obviously closed its doors. So, you know, there's, there's some, a lot more things that happened since that time, but yeah, I mean, just a lot of craziness. So when you look at Celsius right now, explain what has actually transpired. There's nobody allowed to withdraw their coins or transfer between accounts, but what exactly is happening? Yeah. So, I mean, essentially you had throughout 2020, 2021, you had a whole bunch of kind of crypto, a native crypto yield products come out. And these were able to be sustained because of a lot of the stuff we talked about, like the GBTC arbitrage, the futures premium, where you could essentially in a risk-free sort

way, risk-free quotation marks, but in a market neutral sort of way, kind of, you know, taking away counterparty risk, exchange risk, et cetera, you could capture these really, really large yields that were, you know, kind of unheard of, 30%, 20%. And, you know, these allowed these kind of crypto yield products to flourish. But because of those high yields, the demand for them grew. And because of just how market arbitrage works, the actual yields on those arbitrage trades diminished greatly, to where the point where, you know, the GBTC premium is now a GBT discount, that kind of futures contango is no longer trading. And it's, you know, oftentimes, actually, right now, I think it's an abacordation. So all those yield products, actually, or those

yield strategies disappear. So now you have, you know, a company like Celsius that is promising all these, you know, huge yields, that is, is kind of in a tough position. And, you know, instead of diminishing the yields, they kind of went further and further out onto the risk curve. And the, not the shady thing, but the worrisome thing about these strategies is that they're super opaque and really the risks aren't able to be quantified, right? So, you know, Luna or UST on Anchor pays 20%. That's a nominal yield, but what you can't account for is that kind of, you know, there's this potential for catastrophic loss, this, you know, kind of left tail blow up that really can't be quantified. So I think a good way to describe it is a lot of these yields

aren't so much yield, but they're really just selling tail risk. And that's where you kind of run into trouble. And I think that's what's happening with Celsius. Got it. And so how do you think this ends? I saw one tweet where you said you thought they would get liquidated. Walk us through the mechanisms of how much Bitcoin they have, where are the price levels in which they could start to come under pressure for liquidation? Yeah. So the craziest part about this market, And honestly, one of the most fascinating aspects of it all is that, you know, Celsius has money on, I believe, Maker and they have a collateralized loan in a vault. But the wild thing is all these levels are completely transparent. So you can see in real time the collateral levels and how much debt they have outstanding.

And so the liquidation price was at 18K. And I think this is almost like kind of a target on their back. You saw, I think, a lot of market makers, a lot of kind of, I wouldn't call it predatory. I'd call it almost like PDP market, you know, almost capitalism at its finest, right? If there's, you know, a liquidation level that's known, someone's going to find it. But Celsius has been depositing more collateral. They moved that liquidation level down to 17K. And just recently, I think almost 20 minutes ago, they paid down 28 million of the debt.

So the liquidation level is now at 15. So I think there's an increasing chance they don't get liquidated. I mean, obviously this would be, uh, this would be good, uh, overall, because unfortunately what's happening in this real time kind of witch hunt is that these are customer funds at risk, which is, you know, kind of just underscores how crazy this all is, uh, depositors, you know, uh, of Celsius were actually unsecured creditors this entire time, uh, which is quite unfortunate. So I, I'm obviously hoping they don't get liquidated, but you know, that's just market

forces at play. Do you think this is a scam? Like, do you think that there's something nefarious going on or do you think that people are watching this all play out in real time and they just don't have all the information. And so maybe it looks bad, but isn't it bad? Yeah, I don't think it's an outright scam per se. I think honestly, it's noble to attempt to build a yield service in an emerging industry to provide financial services. What I do think is somewhat, I guess, nefarious or somewhat maybe disingenuous is the idea that there was no risk and that you saw Celsius and

Some of the kind of executives say it's completely safe to hold your Bitcoin on here. And self-custody is actually the thing that's not that's not safe because people lose it in self-custody. Trust us. When the reality is they're taking your funds and going on DeFi protocols, rehab, getting coins potentially. So, I mean, obviously, not all exchange operates like this. You know, proof of reserves, I think, is an increasingly needed kind of needed action in this space. Right. Because it's very easy to prove ownership to, you know, transparently say, hey, we have your coins. They're not moving. They're at this address. So I think that's a step in the right direction. And, you know, kind of the rehypothecation with an absolutely scarce asset like Bitcoin was always going to end badly.

Right. So I think that's not necessarily a scam, but that, you know, this is why this is why, you know, the toxic maximalists per se are so toxic because, you know, they've seen this kind of train before and they know how it ends. So when you think about it, it really ends up being a situation where maybe the actions you don't think are nefarious, and there's kind of a good faith effort to build a product. It's more so the marketing and the way that it's been positioned. That's the thing that most people have an issue with. Yeah, I think that's correct. I mean, we've seen not just not Bitcoin, but just through the history of money and economics, we've seen bank runs happen. We've seen fractional reserve and rehypothecation, you know, almost always leads to a bank run of some sorts. And that leads to, you know, somewhat of an insolvency or the depositors at these institutions going belly up. That's the reason why, you know, for better or worse, we're with central banking today as a lender of last resort to kind of bail out these fractional reserve institutions because you saw bank runs happen over and over again. So now we have an absolutely scarce digital asset that you can custody yourself with no counterparty risk. And, you know, just the allure of lending out money with yield and paying out yield, you know, these kind of financial services is very strong, both from kind of a business perspective, as well as an individual perspective. deposit your Bitcoin and get a 1% yield. But ultimately, and the reason I was such a loud kind of proponent of taking your coins off, just be very skeptical of these things is whether it's a 1% yield or a 5% yield, you can't really quantify what's the percentage chance that you

lose 100% of your asset. And so I think that risk reward in my head just didn't make any sense. And that's why, again, I was tweeting from the rooftops about this and trying to get everyone to get their money back. Got it. Well, you've got a bunch of charts and tweets here that we're going to go through. The first is this idea of crypto contagion. Explain what exactly this is.

Yeah, so I mean, this is what I tweeted about last month. Just as a heads up, there was, you know, I had certain things that I was seeing with the Luna debacle. You can see the stuff happening on chain, which is very interesting. But this was kind of the first warning, I would say, or kind of first thing that I thought of post-Luna collapse was, you know, counterparty is at risk.

you really don't want to take a chance. And unfortunately, just a month later, we're seeing that all play out. Got it. And then if we continue to look at this, you talked about the not your keys, not your coins. And I think that's a key piece of this. I saw some people say, hey, look, bear markets teach you a couple of things. One is leverage, two is not your keys, not your coins. Describe this a little bit more in terms of how important of a concept this is for people who are new to the industry. Yeah. I mean, I certainly think there's, you know, quality institutional grade custodians out there. It's definitely improved from the Mt. Gox days. But, you know, certain products, certain strategies are not safe. And actually, whether it's nefarious actors or just incompetency, you know, losses happen. And so with Bitcoin, you have kind of this, for the first time ever, you have a way to hold your own assets in a way that's cryptographically secure, you know, almost mathematically secure, and no one can steal that or take that away from you.

So that's a really powerful idea. I personally believe it's one of the biggest ideas of our time. And it's definitely worth, it's worth learning about. And it's worth, you know, kind of implementing in a safe and secure way, because it is very secure, if you do it correctly. Got it. And then if we go ahead and we take a look at some of the charts, you've got UST, USD. What's going on with UST? Yeah, so the next two charts here are just kind of showing what led to some of the questions about Celsius insolvency. Obviously, you had the anchor UST Luna debacle. I think from what kind of the on-chain stuff says and people's analysis of Celsius' wallets, they made it out relatively unscathed in USD. actually uh so kind of just barely and then you know the next strategy because you know if you think about the yield generation strategies in the crypto market we talked about gbtc we talked about the futures premium the next two were ust on the anchor protocol paying 20 that blew up the next biggest one that celsius was also you know very very uh you know they were they were in implementing this trade in size was stake ethereum so ethereum moving to proof of stake

obviously uh you know there's some execution risk there's you know uh in terms of a roadmap it could be pushed back but users can stake their ethereum and get and get a yield on their native ethereum once the eventual kind of proof of stake implementation uh comes around and so there's actually what's called liquid staking and this uh lido protocol allows you to get uh you get a to stake your ethereum and then you get a staking derivative so it's still liquid asset But the thing is, similar to GBTC, it's a one-way redemption. So you put your ETH in, you get staked ETH out, but there's no way to convert it back. It's locked in until the merge, until proof of stake.

But there is a trading market. And so one of the biggest worries, and this is kind of when the solvency issues and illiquidity issues of Celsius really started to ramp up, was when this peg of staked ETH to Ethereum started to break. And it was less about solvency and more about liquidity. there was a lot of big stake holders that wanted to get out and there's just not really a liquid market for it so this exchange rate where it was you know typically one-to-one started to fall and is you know trading around I think 0.94 and so this is kind of another one of those things where

you have you know you have a company going out on the risk curve with company with a customer funds and you know you see you see these things and you know these these very nascent DeFi markets start to break. And so, you know, again, just kind of highlighting what went wrong here, a lot of things. But ultimately, I think this all kind of shows you that some of the risks and the yield that you're compensated with, you know, whether it's, you know, APY or not, I think, you know, doesn't really correctly identify just all the risks out there. And you have to be really aware of what you're actually, you know, putting your money into. Got it. And so we've got this graphic called fat tails, uh, where you talk a lot about the risks, uh, that end up playing out and kind

of the yield that you could get versus what the risk you end up taking. Describe this idea of fat tails and why you think that the risk is not worth any yield. Yeah. So, I mean, this is just a very basic standard deviation graph. You see a normal distribution and then you kind of see the offline is, is a distribution with, with fat or tails. Ultimately kind of what I was, uh, you know, alluded to earlier is I think a lot of these yield products in crypto, whether it's DeFi, whether it's custodians paying you a yield on your assets. I think it's not yield, and calling it yield is actually disingenuous, maybe not in all cases, but for the most part.

And I think what you're actually doing is you're selling volatility. You're selling kind of a far tail or long tail volatility. And so it's almost like selling far out of the money S&P put options or Bitcoin put options. For the longest time, you're going to collect that premium, and the notional position size, your value is going to continue to go up. your portfolio is going to continue to go up. But eventually, if you keep selling four or five standard deviation putt options, you're going to wipe out your entire portfolio and have nothing.

And so while it's not a perfect analogy, this is what I think a lot of the yield products in crypto and Bitcoin really are. You're just selling long tail volatility. And ultimately, it can lead to disastrous blowups. You've got a chart here of the Bitcoin market value to realized value ratio, uh, this MVRV, uh, ratio is, uh, uh, pretty much knocking on the door of, uh, everything saying, Hey, we're pretty low. Uh, and maybe it can go lower. Maybe it can't describe how you read something like this and kind of what it tells you from an actionable standpoint in the market. Yeah. I think we've talked about this probably on 20 episodes so far throughout the bull market, uh, mapping it down kind of during consolidation periods.

And now we're in the depths of the bear. Maybe not the bottom depths here, but here we are. Market value to realized value ratio. Almost you can think of it as the Bitcoin fair value. Bitcoin's like aggregate on-chain cost basis. And we're trading below it. So can Bitcoin go lower? Certainly. Through the history of Bitcoin, when price is lower than its average on-chain cost basis during its kind of monetization phase, is it a good buying opportunity? Absolutely. And so I think I just love this as a simple framework. You can see very clearly the monetization cycles of Bitcoin. And here we are at $22,000. Bitcoin's on-chain cost basis is around $23,000. It's extremely cheap. And so any analytical investor, any value investor should really do some digging on what this chart is telling you and what this chart means, because I don't think you'll get many other buying opportunities at this level. So when you think about something like this, with Bitcoin below the on-chain cost basis, is that just like an auto, hey, historically, this has been really cheap, and if you take a value investor approach, I'm buying an asset for less than it's worth? Or is that maybe too simplistic of an analysis? I mean, I think that's a simple framework, but I think it's somewhat accurate, right? Obviously, that fair value, in my opinion, value is subjective. There is no intrinsic value. But if you want to think of it as you have this new monetary asset that arose from zero value and is kind of just spreading around the world and monetizing on everyone's balance sheet, then taking a look at this transparent set of property rights, the Bitcoin UTXO set, and assigning a value for every single Satoshi that's moved and at what price, coming up with a kind of an average value. cost basis of the network and putting a ratio on that and saying whether it's above or below it is a pretty good way to kind of see whether or not you're buying for cheap or expensive. And so right now, and really only historically in the depths of the bear markets, do you get an opportunity to buy below this level?

And also, it should be noted that the realized price level is just the realized price or the realized market cap of Bitcoin is far less volatile than the market price and continues just kind of move up in a lockstep fashion on logarithmic scale. So obviously price can go lower. You have so many variables, whether it's liquidations, derivatives, whether the VIX or the legacy markets have another 20% lower, right? A lot of variables here, but just in terms of Bitcoin and Bitcoin only and Bitcoin relative to all of its holders, it's historically cheap. Yeah. When you think about, uh, kind of the price, do you think that there is, uh, we go down to where we are and at wherever the bottom ends up being, it's a sideways movement and there's like an accumulation phase, or is this something that I'll have a lot of reflexivity to it where it's fallen so quickly that you actually expect a fairly fast recovery to some higher level? Yeah, I think certainly the macro backdrop plays a big factor. Last bear market went to $3,800. The recovery was very V-shaped. And I think a lot of that had to do with the central bank response. I don't know if the Fed puts here and I don't think it is at the moment. You still probably need to see inflation year over year come down. And a lot of these, the bond market to settle down and stop selling off.

Again, this is not just a Bitcoin phenomenon. It's bonds, it's equities, it's really every asset on the planet. The 60-40 portfolio is getting absolutely murdered. So I think that all plays a role here. And I really think we're already in the accumulation phase. I mean, just talking to other investors, people are buying Bitcoin hands over fists that actually believe in the asset. And somewhat of the unconvicted investors have already sold, as well as people that

are actually bullish on this asset that own it in large size are, you know, trying to get other industry players to become for sellers. So there's a lot of there's a lot of kind of short term trader games going on. But the long term investors are certainly buying here. And, you know, an accumulation phase has already started. So whether we bounce to 30k, you know, in the coming months, or, you know, kind of trend sideways for a while, then game is pretty clear. Yeah, when you start to think about kind of Bitcoin as part of the macro environment, uh the fed seems to be in control we got news yesterday uh whether it was leaked or or it's just good reporting uh that they're considering a 75 basis point hike which would be an acceleration

off of the 50 basis points they previously said they would do uh this week um does that mean that bitcoin could experience more kind of max pain and and uh could continue to fall further like how do you think about uh the relationship not only of the fed and interest rates but also they set expectations and if they were to deviate from that in a more aggressive manner what would happened to Bitcoin? Yeah, I think it's kind of funny. A lot of these strategists that talk about what the Fed's doing, they're really just looking at the Eurodollar futures market, which is just a Fed bond futures market. So that's fully priced in 75 basis points, I think, the market. And that's as of a couple of days ago. And so I think the market is fully expecting 75 basis points.

But really, I think the Fed's behind the curve in a big way. I don't think that's actually too in-depth of an analysis. The Treasury market, the entire yield curve is, I think, above 3% at this point. So, you know, whether the Fed funds is at 75 bps or 150 bps is really not very material. The treasury market's already done the tightening for them at this point. So they're just playing catch up, you know, how high yields go, how high the Fed fund rate goes. I, you know, I think there's a good chance to get it up to three and a half, 4% by year's end, which is, you know, certainly an aggressive, you know, tightening cycle, but still at that point, real yields are still deeply negative. So I think that, you know, the end game is still,

we're in a monetary repression regime, even if, uh, nominally there's, there's some monetary tightening, um, you know, real yields, uh, from kind of a CPI year over year standpoint, you're still going to be deeply negative, uh, for some time. Yeah. When you think about, uh, kind of where we are, um, every single data point or many data points seems to be hitting capitulation points, you know, very deep, uh, kind of value markers that we haven't seen since march of 2020 what would be the thing that would invalidate your thesis around bitcoin or some of these metrics like is there something that you're like man if x happened that would be the thing that would make me kind of rethink all of this yeah i mean really um there's there's only a

couple things that would invalidate my bitcoin thesis uh and one of them would be uh hash rate not you know hash rate for whatever reason an alien invasion uh that's you know somewhat of joke, but if hash rate wasn't kind of materially just continuing to strengthen and continuing to go up over time, and for some unforeseen reason, which I've thought about over and over and can't really come up with a good one, fell off and sustained kind of that fall off, that drop off, that would leave me questioning my thesis. But really, no, whether the exchange rate goes to 30k or 15K, you know, that really doesn't change my underlying thesis that Bitcoin is the strongest monetary asset and is the only really thing that you can own that's not subject to political whims

or, you know, the arbitrary decision of some policymakers or individuals. And when you see hashrate hitting all time high, but price hitting these lows, does that tell us anything about the relationship between price and hashrate? Or is that just kind of a separation or a disjoining between those two metrics? Yeah, it's somewhat of the chicken and the egg. You know, price follows hash rate, hash rate follows price. I think prices ran up just so, you know, in such an aggressive fashion, and it's hard to actually bootstrap this many ASICs and the actual physical hardware on the network. So now you're seeing stuff like hash price, which we've talked about, right, which is minor revenue divided by hash rate. It's falling to lows that we haven't really seen since the depths of 2020.

So miners' margins are getting squeezed, but that's always kind of how this operates. Hash rate continues to kind of climb up, and any inefficient miners, any miners that have a high production cost kind of get squeezed out, and those ASICs find their way somewhere else. And so I think this is going to continue to be the trend. And I think in that regime, we're going to see miners struggle, whether it's publicly traded miners or just ASIC values. There's going to be probably some fire sale prices. Miners in Bitcoin terms have been getting killed. But eventually, that will reverse. And eventually, these miners,

whether it's the actual physical hardware or the publicly traded names, are just going to be such a great value buy. And I think we're slowly approaching that. And then my last question for you is when you think about the miners and many of the publicly traded companies, we've seen Coinbase and others, they all seem to be trading down significantly, but not just down from, hey, they were higher and now they're lower. The multiples have collapsed. Some of them, literally, it's like cash plus a little bit of credit for their actual business. How do you evaluate the public markets and their relationship to Bitcoin? Yeah. I mean, there's certainly a lot of cyclicality in the crypto industry. If you're

looking at a player like Coinbase, you have to look at their revenues year over year. I think certainly they were very expensive. If you're just looking at the success of Bitcoin and its potential, Coinbase's IPO was worth 2.5 million Bitcoin. So I think in Bitcoin terms, it was always going to fall. It was just kind of an outrageous valuation, just my opinion. But I think it's definitely closer to fair value. But in terms of some of the miners and just the debt they have on their balance sheet, that's certainly playing a role here. MicroStrategy is, I think, trading lower than they first bought Bitcoin, which is quite crazy given their debt structure and all the Bitcoin they own at $30K. It makes sense from a public market perspective, but just

fire sale prices nowadays. And so certainly, whether you're an exchange or a publicly traded miner, price going lower certainly is tough on your business model, as well as multiples across the equity markets have been falling because of these rising yields and duration getting crushed. So I think certainly, you know, there can be lower prices to be seen, especially if the Bitcoin market and equities continue to go lower. But in terms of, you know, fair value, a lot of these names are a much better price than they were throughout all of 2021. one. Yeah. It's, um, it's fascinating kind of watches this all is, uh, is playing out. Um, I'm going to lobby you to, uh, to get a bear market costume as well. And maybe we can get you wearing a suit and tie. Uh, everyone has to wear suits and ties until the bear market is over. That's our punishment for, uh, uh, not only do our portfolios get punished, but also we have to

walk around, uh, and pretend like, uh, we, we, uh, we, we don't have a say in what we do on a daily basis okay i'll uh i'll bring out a suit for the next time if we start having everyone wear suits and ties people will be confused they'll think that uh we're under a spell or that we're somehow uh in uh in trouble yeah i crawled my way back to trad fight yeah exactly all right buddy where can we send people to find you on the internet follow you or subscribe to uh to the newsletter yeah you can just find me at uh on twitter at dylan mcclare underscore uh you know post a lot of my thoughts there, just on a daily basis. Follow my work at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. We kind of, we had an in-depth review of all the Celsius, you know, the Celsius debacle yesterday, and it

got posted on Zero Hedge, if you want to find it there. But yeah, I mean, that's what I do, cover Bitcoin, financial markets, and love it. Yeah. Do it a great job, buddy. Keep it up. And I'm glad that Zero Hedge unblocked you. I saw that as well, that they had you blocked, and then you lobbied. You're like, hey, if you're gonna use my content, at least on Block.me, which means you're back in the game there, right? Yes, sir. We're back. All right. Sounds good. Talk soon. Cheers, Pomp. All right. Later. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get

a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.