The Pomp Podcast - #1008 Mike Singleton Explains The Importance Of The Bond Market

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Mike Singleton is a senior analyst at Invictus Research. In this conversation, we do a deep, deep dive on the bond market and how it relates to asset prices, the Federal Reserve, and the rest of the financial system. I really enjoyed this conversation with Mike, and I hope you guys enjoy it as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I first want to talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by Bullish. Bullish has reinvented the digital asset exchange. They give you access to DeFi features like automated market making

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Starting point is 00:03:21 Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. All right, ladies and gentlemen, next up, we have Mike Singleton from Invictus Research. I'm super excited about this. Pay attention. We are going to do a whole deep dive on the bond market. There's plenty of people who are about stocks, about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, real estate, all stuff. We don't really talk that much about bonds, but it's a very important part of the financial system, and it's very timely right now. So, Mike, how are you doing?

Starting point is 00:04:08 Doing great, Pom. Thanks for having me. Of course. I'm very excited about this. I know that you've put together this presentation and I figured where the best place to start over the next maybe 20 minutes, 30 minutes, you're just going to give me an education is why I'm excited. Let's just start maybe with like, why should people care about the bond market? Sure. Sounds good. And feel free to interrupt me at any time. I know I'm prone to rambling a little bit, but I think there are really three primary reasons to care about the bond market. The first is that it's just a systemically important market. It has various touch points in the real economy. It's the foundation of the opportunity cost of capital and the risk-free rate. I think you actually mentioned that earlier in the show. Two, it has great information content about the things that matter most to investors, to allocators. That's real growth, inflation, and monetary conditions. And the third reason is sort of a more practical reason, especially for people that are biased toward stocks.

Starting point is 00:05:03 I know there are a lot of stock jockeys out there. Frequently, the bond market will lead the equity market. So three good reasons to pay attention to what bonds are saying, because they have a lot of good information. Got it. And then if we start talking about monetary policy, which obviously we're talking today on a day that the Federal Reserve is going to announce another interest rate hike. How do bonds and monetary policy, how do these two things kind of intersect?

Starting point is 00:05:25 Well, there's a pretty decent amount of overlap there because ultimately the bond market and the Fed both care about the same things. Ultimately, they both care about growth, inflation, and financial conditions. So what that means is essentially you can learn a lot about what the market thinks the Fed will do just from looking at the bond market. And unless you have some sort of experience yourself at a Federal Reserve Bank where you have a degree from the CIA and investigating body language. And even if you do, there are tons of Fed watchers that get stuff wrong all the time. The bond market is usually your best source of information. But I think to understand how, it's kind of important to take a step back because I think this gets overlooked a

Starting point is 00:06:08 lot, especially in the face of all the headlines. Is the Fed going to hike 25 basis points, 50 basis points. Now it's going to hike 75 basis points. It's important to understand how the Fed actually implements monetary policy. Everyone knows to look out for the Fed funds rate and for the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Those are the two primary levers. You could probably ask a layperson on the street and they would generally know those two things are related to the Fed. But I think a lot of people miss the forest for the trees here because they miss how these things actually impact the real economy? And I don't think it's totally intuitive, right? The Fed funds rate is for Fed funds. It's a market that virtually no one you know or I know would

Starting point is 00:06:49 interact in. It's for commercial banks. So how does the Fed funds rate impact the real economy? And hint, hint, it's largely through the bond market. So that's what we're going to talk a little bit about now. Fed policy works primarily through the transmission mechanism of financial conditions. And Nick was talking a little bit about that earlier, but I think it's important to sort of define the terms and talk about it a little bit more because I don't know anything in finance generally that's more important and more often overlooked. So the NBER defines financial conditions as the current state of financial variables that influence economic behavior and thereby the future state of the economy. You can think of them as leading

Starting point is 00:07:33 indicators for growth, or maybe more specifically, leading indicators for how the Fed wants to influence growth. You can see, I think, the little chart on the bottom of the slide there, or at least the slide that was just up. The Fed toggles interest rates, that changes financial conditions, and that influences growth up or down. So, you know, if the Fed wants to influence growth up, it stimulates, obviously, and if it wants to influence growth down, maybe to manage inflation or inflation expectations. It tightens. I don't want to act like the Fed is all powerful or that there are no limits to what the Fed can do. There are significant limitations, but it still pays to pay attention to the Fed because the Fed is an enormously

Starting point is 00:08:16 important actor in the financial market. So when we think about this, the Federal Reserve essentially is responding to financial conditions, or does the Federal Reserve create the financial conditions? Like, how do you think about the chicken or egg between the Fed and those financial conditions? Oh, I think the Fed, I think the Fed creates the financial conditions, right? If the Fed said we're never going to raise rates again, you'd see the curve flatten immediately, right? I mean, and you look at the Bank of Japan, right? Like, you see how interventionist these central banks can be. And, you know, the market has to respond. So I think Nick said something earlier that I don't completely, you know, agree with. He was talking about how you're going to start

Starting point is 00:08:55 seeing the U.S. behaving a lot more like an emerging market in terms of other stuff. I don't know if he was talking about central banks, but I think I would be more likely to look toward Japan rather than emerging markets in terms of how U.S. economics and policy plays out over the next decade or so. Yeah. If we go ahead and we look at the supply and demand, explain how the Fed looks at supply and demand and the relationship between those two. Sure. I think this is actually funny. So you can think about the U.S. economy in terms of an econ 101 supply and demand chart where you've got the supply of goods and services going up into the right and you've got demand for goods and services going down into the right. And, you know, this determines GDP. This determines price levels. It's a terrific mental model that I almost never see discussed for some reason, maybe because it's too simple.

Starting point is 00:09:42 It doesn't it doesn't pay to talk about things in terms of simple. But it also helps with understanding Fed policy. So the Fed obviously cannot affect the supply of goods and services. The Fed can't drill new wells for oil. The Fed can't grow new wheat or new food. But what the Fed can do is it can influence demand on a lag through financial conditions, right? So like we said earlier, the Fed can, you know, reduce the cost of borrowing for the private sector, which in theory increases borrowing, increases spending, pushes that aggregate demand curve out, right, and increases GDP and reflates the economy, right, in theory. And then on the other hand, the Fed can do the opposite when it tightens. It can, among other things, make private sector borrowing more restrictive, which brings that demand curve in, reduces inflation, but the collateral damage is always growth. So the Fed uses a lot of euphemisms. We want to cool demand.

Starting point is 00:10:40 We want to cool off the economy or whatever. What they really mean is we need to slow growth. Growth is always the collateral damage of the Fed tightening financial conditions and bringing inflation expectations back in. Yeah. And so when you think about this, really what they're trying to do in the moment is they're trying to destruct demand. And they have a couple of tools there. And that leads to an analysis of like, where are we in the financial conditions? You've got this chart that shows how you measure financial conditions. Explain this a little bit. So in my opinion, financial conditions are much,

Starting point is 00:11:10 much tighter than most people realize. I think a lot of investors anchor to the Fed funds rate or the size of the Fed's balance sheet. And so what they'll say is financial conditions really aren't very tight because the Fed funds rate is way below inflation. I mean, even if the Fed surprises to the upside today and does 100 basis point hike, you know, you'd have a Fed funds rate of 175 basis points relative to inflation that's over 8%. The Fed's balance sheet is virtually at all-time highs. So financial conditions are really, really easy. And that's just not true because, like I said earlier, the cost of Fed funds doesn't really impact the real economy. What does impact the real economy are the various measures of financial conditions. And on the slide that you

Starting point is 00:11:51 just showed, I had a few of them listed that are important. Treasury rates, mortgage rates, yield curvature, the dollar, equity valuations. I'll maybe go through treasury rates real quick because I think it's a very intuitive one and it's easy and you can stop me after that if you want. But treasury rates are the cost of financing for the public sector. Obviously, the more debt that's on the federal government's balance sheet, the more onerous higher interest rates become. But it's not just the public sector. It's also the private sector.

Starting point is 00:12:19 So you hear people talk a lot about credit spreads making private sector borrowing more expensive. But you can't forget that the Fed is really what sets the benchmark rate, or the treasury curve, rather, is what sets the benchmark rate. So if you're a non-investment grade borrower and you want to go raise a junk bond with a five-year tenure, your cost of interest is the benchmark rate, so something like the five-year treasury, which is highly influenced by the Fed, plus the credit spread. And so what we've seen over the last six months is credit spreads have actually remained relatively sanguine, but the

Starting point is 00:12:49 cost of raising capital for anyone, investment grade or non-investment grade, has gone up quite a bit because treasury rates, because benchmark rates has gone up. So what that means is as companies need to refinance, they're going to be paying more and more interest. For really weak companies, that'll mean bankruptcies. For stronger companies, that'll just mean more interest payments, which in turn means less investment, which in turn means slower earnings growth. So increasing treasury rates is one way that the Fed slows the economy. And there's a handful of other mortgage rates. There's an obvious one that mortgage rate came out this morning that obviously impacts the affordability of a home. What a lot of people don't realize is that

Starting point is 00:13:26 It also impacts adjacent industries like construction and home improvement and home furnishings. And all of those are really, really large industries, right? Hundred billion dollar plus industries. And so when homes are no longer affordable, all of that slows very, very quickly. And actually, a lot of a lot of there's a lot of the analysis of the housing market gets a little confused because there's a lot of different data points. And how do I really know what's happening or supply chain issues? if you want the best picture of demand in the housing market, it makes sense to look at mortgage applications for purchasing new homes. That's where you'll see the cleanest picture of

Starting point is 00:14:00 demand. It's not impacted by supply chain issues or anything like that. And if you were to look at the MBA mortgage purchasing index, it's down over 40% from its peak. If you were to look at the week over week rate of change in new mortgage applications, it's been down something like 17 of the last 24 weeks. That's what Fed-induced demand destruction looks like in the housing market. So are there supply chain issues in housing? Yes. If you look at the really lagging data series, like the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, are prices still going up quickly? Yes. But has the Fed already started to impact demand through tightening financial conditions? From looking at mortgage applications, the answer is pretty clearly yes. And I'm happy to stop there, but I can go through

Starting point is 00:14:45 the other indicators if you're curious. If we take a look, let's jump to the actual treasury curve and the repricing and how it's going higher. I think many people probably aren't paying attention to this and don't understand the ramifications. So explain this a little bit. Sure. So this is just a chart of basically the entire treasury curve from the one year out to the 30 year. And you can see it's obviously going up really, really quickly. It almost looks like it's being sucked into a vortex or a black hole or something. And in truth, it is. It's the Fed. So what actually drives rates? It's a mix between growth, inflation, and the Fed. You can break it down, and the analysis gets a little bit more complicated. Not much more, but a little bit more.

Starting point is 00:15:27 And I can tell you that this move is being largely driven by the Fed. So this is what it looks like essentially when the Fed wants to destroy private sector wealth, when it wants to raise discount rates, when it wants to raise the cost of the private sector, when they're borrowing, when it wants to basically conduct a reverse wealth effect. So I think you hear a lot of people saying the Fed is out of control right now because risk assets are selling off like crazy. I don't think that's a symptom of the Fed being out of control. I actually think that's a symptom of the Fed being in control. I think this is, again, look at the credit markets. The credit markets aren't pricing in that much stress yet. I think eventually they will, right, when the head

Starting point is 00:16:04 hits the quote-unquote breaking point when we hit the Minsky moment of the cycle. But right now, I see a Fed that is relatively in control and a sell-off in risk assets that's been largely induced by the Fed. And then if we go ahead and we take a look at this next one here, we've got the two-year, 10-year, and the five-year, 30-year, both continue in this kind of inversion. What is this showing us? So it's another measure of financial conditions. I think the best way to understand it is, first, you need to understand what drives the rates market. So if you look at long rates, think 10 years and out, the 10 year, the 20 year, the 30 year, typically those rates trade on top of nominal growth expectations. The Fed has maybe

Starting point is 00:16:45 distorted the signal there a little bit. But historically, if the bond market thought that long-term potential trend growth in the US was going to be 5%, then the long bond would trade at about 5%. And that's probably not true precisely anymore, but I think it's still directionally true. The short end of the yield curve represents the Fed's policy path. So when you see a yield curve that's measured by a long rate minus a short rate flattening and then inverting, what it's telling you is that policy expectations are going higher usually, right? The two-year and the five-year are going higher, and the 10-year and the 30-year aren't increasing as quickly. So that's what's called a bear flattening. And generally, a bear flattening

Starting point is 00:17:30 means that the Fed is tightening policy to an extent that it's impacting long-term growth potential. And again, that's what financial conditions do, right? Financial conditions are the Fed influencing the economic growth, the economic growth cycle up or down. And right now, the yield curve is telling you that the Fed will be successful in bringing down growth over time. And the yield curve infamously leads the growth cycle by 6 to 12 months. And when you look at the 30-year mortgage, that's been exploding upwards. We were talking earlier on the show about just how expensive this capital has gotten. What is that telling you?

Starting point is 00:18:05 That tells me that it's a lot harder to buy a home, that getting a home is much, much more expensive. I think if you translated this into the average monthly cost of servicing your mortgage, it translates to maybe 30, I think it's 40 or 45% more expensive than it was at the beginning of the year. So that slows demand for new home applications like we discussed earlier, and it also slows demand for any adjacent industries, right? It also reduces the value of homes over time. I don't think that's showing up in the price data yet because the index that everyone looks at comes out on a two or three month lag. that's the Kay Schiller data. But ultimately, this is what's going to bring down the value of homes. And that also creates a reverse wealth effect. Most Americans have the preponderance of their net worth in their homes. And when they start to see the value of real estate going down

Starting point is 00:18:52 across the country, they feel less rich and spend less money. Ultimately, I think that's what the Fed is angling for. Got it. And then when you continue and kind of look at this, the 230 basis points is a huge, huge number. But you can look at MBA purchase index or the mortgage applications that you have here. Something like mortgage applications, negative for 17 of the last 23 weeks. This feels, I mean, literally like we're in a different world than we were 12 months ago. Is your expectation that this will continue to suffer as long as the Fed is aggressive and raising rates? Or do you think that there is some relief at some point? I mean, not to sound dramatic, but I think that the Fed wants to tighten financial conditions. It wants to bring

Starting point is 00:19:29 in that demand curve. It thinks that this reverse wealth effect is one of the best ways of doing it. So I think until, you know, the Fed says, you know, uncle, or really maybe the bond market says uncle, you're going to see the Fed continue to tighten and you're going to continue to see risk assets perform poorly and you're going to continue to see even non-tradable assets like homes under pressure. And really, a lot of the pain in the housing market is difficult to detect. This is one of the few data sets we have to know that there is stress in the housing market, right? You could cherry pick 20 other indicators that make it look like the housing market is doing fine. I don't know what the Fed is anchoring to.

Starting point is 00:20:08 If I were a Federal Reserve official, this data series would tell me don't tighten too much faster because we're already having a pretty substantial impact and it's negative. Yeah, it's pretty crazy. I think that you've got another slide here that shows that mortgage applications and rates are really just showing slowdown in growth on the horizon. Yeah, I think this is a fascinating chart. So if you look at the black line, the black line is the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is one of our favorite measures of economic growth.

Starting point is 00:20:38 No need to overcomplicate it. It's just a different way of measuring the growth cycle. It correlates pretty closely with GDP, but it's a little higher frequency. The purple line is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage minus the 30-year treasury yield. And what's amazing is you can see how closely these two time series track each other. As growth decline, you know, there's always a chicken or the egg thing. But essentially what you're seeing in the mortgage market is financial stress. And it's financial stress that usually accompanies substantial decelerations in growth.

Starting point is 00:21:09 So, you know, the equivalent place on the PMI on this chart is probably like 40. Do I think we're going to see the PMI decelerate to 40? Probably not. That's really aggressive. That would be like, you know, you can see that would be below COVID. But, you know, I do think that directionally growth is going to slow and that's going to put a lot of pressure on risk assets, right? Growth slowing is the worst thing that can happen to risk assets, particularly stocks, which makes sense, right? The growth cycle should drive the performance of business assets. Yeah, it's frankly crazy to kind of watch this all play out. The other one that I wanted to focus on here is the DYX dollar index. Earlier, we were talking about it strengthening, obviously, against other fiat currencies. And I think when many people see inflation at 8.6% is 40-year high, they're like, hey, what do you mean the dollar is actually getting stronger at the same time that it's being devalued from an inflation standpoint? Help people understand how you look at something like the dollar index. That's a good point.

Starting point is 00:22:12 So the Dixie dollar index is a trade-weighted index of the dollar versus other currencies. So think the euro, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen. It's not measuring the value of the dollar against, say, commodities, where obviously the dollar has lost a good deal of purchasing power over the last six or 12 months. But the reason that we look at it at Invictus is really as a measure of financial conditions. Ultimately, well, ultimately, there are two things that drive the price of the dollar. but financial conditions is a really big one. And so right now the Fed wants a higher dollar for a handful of reasons. I mean, the first is that a higher dollar is disinflationary in and

Starting point is 00:22:49 of itself, right? Which makes sense if you're increasing the price of the dollar relative to the price of other things and they are cheaper in dollar terms. So believe it or not, inflation would actually be worse if the dollar were at a lower point. If it were at the same place as it was six months ago, instead of seeing 8.5% inflation, you'd see 10% inflation or something like that. But the dollar also makes fundamental economic activity more difficult for businesses, particularly abroad, and that matters to the US. And the reason is, as I'm sure you probably know, global commerce and global finance is largely denominated in dollars. So if, say, China wants to buy copper from Australia. They're generally doing so in dollars. And as the price of the

Starting point is 00:23:36 dollar goes up, the price of copper then goes up for China because it's also denominated in dollars. This crowds out other investment and ultimately reduces economic growth. Additionally, tons of countries, particularly emerging market countries, have pretty substantial what's called euro dollar debt or dollar denominated debt. So they have to service their debt in dollars rather than local currency, which creates substantial demand for dollars, particularly during times of economic stress. Essentially, if you know you need to pay your rent in dollars, you'll sell some other assets to make sure you have the dollars to pay your rent. And a lot of times, you'll see that cause the dollar to squeeze higher. And now, maybe it's a little much to say that's what the Fed

Starting point is 00:24:17 wants. But the Fed does want a higher dollar because it's fundamentally disinflationary. And again, what they really want is to bring in that demand curve, reduce growth and reduce price levels. Yeah. When you just zoom out for a second, the Fed obviously was talking about 50 basis point hikes. Now they're talking potentially 75 basis point hikes. We're a couple hours away. What's your general thought process in terms of what they'll do? And how do you think about the implications if they do do 75 basis points through the rest of this year? Well, ultimately, Ultimately, private sector borrowers are borrowing off the rest of the treasury curve, not off of the Fed funds rate.

Starting point is 00:24:53 And right now, we know Fed funds futures have already priced in, last time I checked, it was 75 basis points, right? So the question is, can they get incrementally hawkish from here? Obviously, if they do 50, that would be incrementally dovish, and you'd probably see real rates decline and the entire treasury curve sell off a little bit. But right now, I would say the trend is that monetary conditions get tighter, and you can dissect the yield curve 100 different ways or look at various different measures of financial conditions like we just did. And right now, the trend is upward. And our view at Invictus is that

Starting point is 00:25:25 markets tend to trend and trends tend to persist. And so we would be investing right now as though monetary conditions are likely to continue tightening. But we'll caveat that by saying this is no longer as easy a trade as it was six months ago when monetary conditions were you know relatively looser because now that monetary conditions are so so tight um well there's there's just not that much more room to go before you cause a growth scare right before you before you really start to break things yeah it's um it's kind of crazy to think that they could uh just continue until they break things and uh one of the big um you know questions i have right now is just we're hours away we are hours away from the announcement no one knows it's

Starting point is 00:26:10 going to happen. And it is absolutely incredible that we are asking business owners to plan their businesses. We are asking investors to plan their investment portfolios around a future that constantly changes. That is this like moving target. And it's not a thing where five minutes beforehand you even know, right? I mean, it literally changes when that announcement comes out 50 basis points, 75, 25, 100, zero. It just, what happens, right? And to me, it's just crazy that that is still the situation that we all operate within.

Starting point is 00:26:49 I know it. I've certainly been surprised before. I thought that the Wall Street Journal leak about 75 basis points, I think 75 basis points is, you know, tending toward policy mistake, in my opinion, right? Because financial conditions impact growth on what Milton Friedman called a long and variable lag, right? So everyone wants to see inflation go

Starting point is 00:27:10 down right away, but that's not the way that Fed policy works. It's not the way financial conditions work. And the tendency is to want things to work really, really fast, to see inflation at 2% next month. And if that's your policy objective, the only way to do that is to over-tighten and cause a recession sooner rather than later. So I don't think that the Fed needs to be incrementally more hawkish in order to reduce inflation over the coming year. I think it's very likely to happen already. I don't know what's going to happen, but we're going to find out for sure. Where can we send people to find you on the internet or find out more about Invictus Research? So our website is invictus-research.com. Twitter handle is at Invictus Macro. And our goal is to

Starting point is 00:27:54 provide a replacement for the business section of the mainstream media. So instead of reading the Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg. We send you five to 10 minute videos each morning on where we are in the business cycle, what the implications are for forward returns, and try and keep it short, very informative, and more entertaining than just reading through the business section, hopefully. I tend to think that you do some amazing research. So anyone who has not subscribed yet, definitely go check it out and then follow Mike on Twitter as well. He put out some great stuff. So thank you for coming on and giving us an overview of the bond market. We'll definitely have to do this again in the future. Um, as, uh, as this all plays out

Starting point is 00:28:33 and, uh, I'll cross my fingers, you cross yours that, uh, the fed doesn't do anything crazy in a couple hours, but, uh, we'll see what, uh, we'll see what happens. Yeah. Amen. Amen. Thank you for having me. All right. Sounds good, Mike. Talk soon. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum

Starting point is 00:29:02 with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #1008 Mike Singleton Explains The Importance Of The Bond Market

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