The Pomp Podcast - #1009 Darius Dale On Why We’re Already In A Recession

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42Macro, the leading macro risk management advisor. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on in the macro economy, what's happening in the financial markets, how Darius is looking at various metrics, and also what you at home we should be thinking about as you invest your capital. I really enjoyed this conversation with Darius, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by BCB Group. With a dedicated focus on

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Starting point is 00:03:12 or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. My friend Darius Dale, how are you? I'm good, man. I'm good personally, but I'm concerned about these markets here, dude. Am I gonna lie to you?

Starting point is 00:03:29 Yesterday, the Federal Reserve, 75 basis point hike after they leaked it. and went to the wall street journal and leaked it. Uh, what's your thought process? Yeah. Is it, is it a leak? If you go directly to the world's widely watched source and tell them very specifically, no, I'm not sure, but, uh, say, Hey, I want to tell you something, but don't tell them that I told you, but just write the article. Yeah, exactly. By the way, why are you wearing a suit? I'm glad that you asked my friend, uh, we're in a bear market and this exact suit and this exact tie defeated the 2018 bear market i'll be wearing this suit and

Starting point is 00:04:03 tie every day until we defeat the 2022 bear market i love that look at that scruff man yeah we're getting old yeah hey listen it got a little less hair but still got the same suit and tie that's all that matters absolutely all right so what's going on with the federal reserve what how do you read into whether 75 basis point hike rather than the 50 basis points they had been saying previously So, yeah, let's get into the Fed yesterday. So overarching takeaway is that this is the most hawkish Fed meeting we've seen since 1994. We will be talking about this 25, 30 years down the road because it's really the first time really since then that the Fed has effectively confirmed that they're comfortable with sending the economy into a recession to defeat inflation. You can make the case that they weren't even as hawkish back then because Greenspan was sort of a mom's the word, generally speaking, with respect to forward guidance. That's more of a Bernanke, Yellen, Powell Fed dynamic.

Starting point is 00:04:56 So you could also make the case that this is probably the most hawkish Fed meeting since going back to Paul Volcker in the early 80s. And it's very clear from my perspective that there's going to be a significant reduction in liquidity from financial markets over the medium term until the Fed sees the whites of the eyes of inflation's back breaking completely. When you start to think about their current positioning, do they believe what they're saying? and I want to give you a very specific example.

Starting point is 00:05:26 They claim that they are taking this aggressive stance. Some may say that they are trying to posture kind of in a Paul Volcker, we're serious about taming inflation. We're going to raise interest rates. But then on their own projections, they believe inflation is still going to be over 5% at the end of the year.

Starting point is 00:05:42 They don't think that it'll even be sub 3% by the end of next year. Why are they saying they're being so aggressive, but still telling us, hey, six months from now, you're still going to have five plus percent inflation, which will be compounded on top of seven percent inflation in December of 2021. Yes, because let's not forget that this is a Fed who I think deep down at its core believes that inflation is still somewhat transitory, at least that there are transitory components to the inflation that we're observing. Obviously, if you think about food and energy prices,

Starting point is 00:06:16 you know, roughly 10% on a three-month annualized basis, or sorry, 12% on a three-month annualized basis for food, 50% on a three-month annualized basis for energy, the Fed is convinced and always will be convinced that that kind of inflation is, you know, generally speaking, transitory because it's not sticky. However, as we talked about on this program and have been talking about this program for six, nine months now, that there are sticky components of inflation, particularly when you look at something like the Atlanta Fed, sticky CPI, you know, roughly 7% on a three-month annualized basis fastest since the early 90s and then median cpi 6.4 percent uh fastest on a three month annualized basis fastest rates ever you know there are parts of inflation that are very sticky

Starting point is 00:06:56 and and you know one thing i think we have to remember as investors because again everyone talking about inflation right now you know at least from an investment perspective you know has not lived through a serious inflation shock before you had to go all the way back to the 70s and early 80s uh to get to to that time to that part of the time series and so the reality is inflation is a sticky disease. It gets worse unless it's getting better. And what he's effectively saying is we're willing to do more and more and more to get it to go get better, but it's not going to get better overnight because again, there are some very sticky components to it that are already kind of in the pipeline. So when you think about this, we've seen asset

Starting point is 00:07:32 prices falling. Will they wave the white flag if asset prices fall enough or do they just not care at all whatever happens to those asset prices? Oh, no, they care because ultimately there is a legitimate feedback and response mechanism between asset markets and our economy. So there's a couple of statistics I'll throw at you to support that. U.S. economy, you know, while we're down from a consumer balancing perspective in terms of overall debt, private non-financial sector debt has actually risen in the last sort of 10 to 15 years, not as quite as high as it was prior to the financial crisis, but it's still pretty elevated at about 160 percent of GDP. And the reason that matters is because we also have a very financialized economy. When you look at private

Starting point is 00:08:15 non-financial sector debt in terms of the percent that is warehoused on bank balance sheet that isn't turning over, it's going to be sitting there to maturity versus that's about 30 percent versus the amount of private sector, non-financial sector debt that is sort of warehoused by non-bank participants, shadow banks, hedge funds, asset managers, et cetera, that at 70%, it tells you that what happens in the markets will have a material impact on the debt dynamics of the economy, not just issuing new debt, but also rolling over existing debt. And that is an issue in terms of, you know, that will cause, you know, the significant tightening of financial conditions will cause and have a material adverse impact on the growth cycle, which ultimately feed back into

Starting point is 00:08:57 the inflation cycle by reducing demand. So this is what the Fed wants. They just don't want too much of it. But yesterday, we learned that it's for the first time that this is a Federal Reserve that actually wants that outcome. And so that's a pretty significant move. When you look at things, I think this morning, U.S. housing starts, the forecast was minus 1.8%, if I remember correctly, and it ended up coming in at like minus 14.4%. Just like something so egregiously off from the forecast. Do you expect us to see more and more inaccuracies in forecasts because now we're getting into a kind of uncharted water? We're getting into a period of so much complexity in the global macro environment that's moving that it's going to be very difficult for many of these

Starting point is 00:09:41 economists and forecasters to actually be accurate? Yeah. So there's two things I would say about that. The first is we should expect more significant downside surprises to housing data over the medium term. Just going back to what I just talked about in terms of how financialized the economy is, obviously, the housing sector is one of the most financialized components of the economy. And we're currently undergoing the biggest shock in mortgage rates, at least as far back as we can get the data since going back to the late 90s, ever. It's bigger than the shock we experienced in 06, ahead of the global financial crisis, ahead of the housing bust and downturn. It's bigger than the shock we experienced in 2013. It's bigger than the shock

Starting point is 00:10:22 we experienced in 2018. We're talking about a 3.2 sigma move, 3.2 Z score on a trailing three-year basis in terms of the move we've seen in mortgage rates from basically 3% all the way up to 6%. So that's going to cause a significant slowdown in housing market activity. The number two point I want to make in response to your question, I think there is legitimate risk that we could be in recession right now. I mean, if you look at the Q1 GDP report, and again, now most of the the negative move in the Q1 GDP report was as a function of inventories. Real final sales were very robust in the first quarter. But again, we had a negative overall headline GDP print. And you look at something like the Atlanta Fed's now cast for the second quarter,

Starting point is 00:11:02 we're basically at zero. And it could obviously get worse once we get the updated forecast after we got the rancid retail sales data and obviously housing data today. We could be currently sitting here in the second consecutive quarter of negative headline GDP. And typically what happens when you're in recession is that the revisions to economic statistics tend to be very, very aggressive. They tend to be much, much larger than your traditional revisions on a month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter basis. And so, again, I don't want to make a headline and say I think we're the economies in recession because, again, real final sales are still trending quite positively. But certainly, if we are in recession, you're definitely going to see some significant

Starting point is 00:11:40 revisions and your significant downside surprises in a lot of the reporting of economic statistics. Can you talk a little bit about the disconnect maybe between the official metrics and then how people on the ground actually could be experiencing recessionary-like effects where it's wage growth, it's increasing costs, they're slowing down investment, there's less hiring going on? How do we actually decipher what's happening in the quote-unquote real economy versus, hey, did we actually get the true definition of a recession in the metrics? Yeah, so let me start that. Let me answer that in reverse. Great question, but you're always on fire with the questions. In reverse, you know, I think it is important to define what a recession is, right? There's different definitions of recession. There's the technical recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. from an intent for there's also the sort of more qualitative definition of recession, which is a significant pullback in animal spirits, you know, particularly from the corporate sector, where corporates, you know, are laying off, laying off workers and, and really doing what they can to sort of, to sort of protect profits. And that usually has a significant adverse outcome on

Starting point is 00:12:45 growth statistics. And then there's a third also qualitative explanation. That's part of the NBER, are, which is the official body who dates recessions in the U.S. There's a third qualitative definition, which is a significant downside deviation from trend and overall output and a significant downside deviation from trend and overall employment. So obviously those two qualitative definitions kind of line up with each other. I tend to sit more on the qualitative camp who gives it in about two consecutive quarters of negative GDP that those can be gained from an accounting standpoint. What really matters is how far and how quickly you deviate from the trend in output and employment. And so in terms of walking you through how that might look like

Starting point is 00:13:25 on the ground, I think the first thing that matters is there's been a significant reduction in consumer confidence, particularly when you look at the University of Michigan survey. We're obviously a below trend from a conference board survey as well. But when you marry that up to the significant reduction that we've seen in CEO confidence as well, now we're sort of in the point of the process where there is a crisis of confidence that is very much being observed. And that crisis of confidence, let's take the crypto sector as an example, that crisis of confidence can filter the economy in a lot of different ways. Let's say the price of Bitcoin stays down here around $20,000 or goes even south of $20,000. What you're going to start to see is

Starting point is 00:14:07 more layoffs at places like Coinbase, et cetera. You're going to see less advertising spin by companies like FTX and Coinbase, et cetera, and you're going to have Matt Damon flying to Vegas less frequently. And then the hotels in Vegas where he's spending money at the casino are going to start to lay off staff and workers. And this is how it works. And now you magnify that and multiply that across the economy. That's how you get a recession. What typically happens in a growth is that there's one, two, maybe a few connected sectors that are all sort of experiencing real negative dynamics. A recession is when you're seeing that broad based across the economy, across multiple sectors. Yeah, we've got this tweet that Zero Hedge put out that said the last

Starting point is 00:14:48 and only time the S&P was down 10 of 11 weeks, Nixon was about to end the gold standard and kill Bretton Woods to, quote, fix the U.S. inflation problem. And we've got the chart that shows 10 out of 11 weeks for the S&P to be down, we then get coming off of the gold standard. How severe do you think that the solution is going to be here? Is it simply something where they can use their current tools of interest rates and quantitative tightening and get this under control? Or will we see some kind of very, very severe action to try to get inflation under control? Well, it depends. If inflation continues surprising to the upside in the way that it did last Friday in the May CBI report, which we obviously, we presage very well in this program

Starting point is 00:15:34 and other programs, then yeah, they're going to get incrementally draconian because what to me, and again, I think this is qualitative and you have to make a market call. Generally speaking, you got to make calls to make money in financial markets. When I hear Powell talk about inflation, particularly when I hear him talk about how inflation impacts low-income families, I'm telling you, I've been doing this boring ass job for 13 and a half years, and I've never once heard any central banker from any place around the world, with the exception of Raghuram Rajan over at the Reserve Bank in India, talk about the impact of inflation on low-income consumers. To me, it seems like Powell understands

Starting point is 00:16:09 just how damning and how recessionary the conditions already feel like for the lower income cohorts of our society. And so to me, I think this sort of, you know, their willingness to do whatever it takes from a financial tightening standpoint and from a growth reduction and growth standpoint to get to a situation where inflation is much lower and the economy is in a much more stable footing, I think their willingness to do that is much higher than I think the average market participant believes. And we've thought that all year. When you think about something like yield curve controls, we were talking yesterday

Starting point is 00:16:43 to Nick Carter, and he thinks that that's on our horizon. How do you view that? And do you think that's something that we should expect? Yield curve control would be on the horizon if inflation became runaway. And the only reason I think yield curve control would be on the horizon if inflation became runaway is if the Fed allowed it to become runaway, right? The Fed is ultimately responsible, at least from a monetary standpoint and just given how financialized the economy is, is ultimately responsible for doing something about inflation.

Starting point is 00:17:13 And they can do a significant amount about inflation, right? Let's go back. And one thing that the Fed, a lot of investors are chastising the Fed about, at least a lot of investors have similar market views that I do, they haven't talked at all about the ridiculous amount of fiscal stimulus we dumped into the economy, not just domestically, but globally throughout the pandemic. And they also haven't talked at all about the sort of aggressive monetary easing that we saw, even despite the inflationary pressure that was building from a sort of supply and demand perspective in terms of overly stimulating aggregate demand at a time where it was very clear that we were seeing a concomitant reduction in labor supply and ultimately a reduction in energy and agricultural supply as well. And obviously, the geopolitical impacts from Russia, Ukraine are only making those last two dynamics worse. And so ultimately, the Fed can do something about inflation. It looks like they want to do something about inflation. But if they chose not to do something about inflation and let inflation hang out at these very aggressive levels or even get worse over the medium to long term, then they will have to do yield curve control. But I don't think that's where we're headed because ultimately, I think the Fed, at least for now, seems like it has to resolve to get this job done. So Nick's point, I think, was, hey, they just can't increase interest rates above some threshold, whether that's 5%, 6%, whatever, or they'll bankrupt the United States. That's not true.

Starting point is 00:18:36 Okay, so that's what I wanted to get to. Explain how high you think they could hike rates if needed. So let's not forget that, one, the Federal Reserve has its limited balance sheet, but it's also not just the Federal Reserve, right? There is also this thing called regulation, right? We could trap a lot of money in our ecosystem by changing the rules of the game in terms of how banks are allowed to operate both internationally and domestically, how we're allowed to sort of transact from a cross-capital, cross-border perspective from the perspective of capital markets. They can do a lot of moving with dials and levers to effectively crowd money into the treasury market, which is what they did going back to the regulations we saw in 2008, 2009, and then ultimately regulations changes we saw in 2015, 2016. So they have levers that they can pull without having to resort to something that looks like yield curve control, you know, from the perspective of the central bank. But again, I think, you know, to Nick, you know, I'm not saying Nick's wrong ex ante.

Starting point is 00:19:31 We don't know anything about the future. No one does. But my point is, I think we're a long way away from even having to get there because ultimately they can they can. There's ways in which they can they can trap money into the into the U.S. Treasury market. So the U.S. is not going to default anytime soon is at the top of the global capital structure. If the U.S. defaults, it means that you, me, every business, every company, every country in the world likely would have defaulted first. When you think about places with very high degrees of inflation, take Argentina, others, they start to put price controls in place. And we've obviously seen a recent letter that was sent to a bunch of the oil companies saying basically you're greedy, stop raising prices. We saw the White House communications director recently say, you know, be a patriot, keep your prices low.

Starting point is 00:20:15 what's going on? And like, should we expect price controls in the United States at some point in the future? So, so how stupid is that? Right? Like you run a business, I run a business, be a Patriot, keep prices low. Well, it costs money, more money to run the business. I got to either pass on the cost to the ultimate consumer of the good or service that we're selling, or I have to have less profits or even negative profits. You're going to disincentivize people from running businesses and producing incremental goods and supply of goods and services, which is what we need if you start instituting price controls. We talked about this last week. Price controls are short-term reward from an amelioration of price change

Starting point is 00:20:56 perspective, but they're guaranteed to give you higher inflation in the future because all you're doing is reducing the total amount of available supply on a lag. And so clearly, what's causing inflation, what has caused every inflation in the history of inflations since going back to Adam and and maybe even before that, if you guys watch Ancient Civilizations on Amazon, which is great, by the way, it's always a mismanagement of supply or misalignment of supply and demand. You cannot have an inflation without a misalignment of supply and demand. One or two of those curves have to shift in an adverse manner to have a sustained inflation. And that's clearly what we have right now. So one of the things along that same line is the national average gas price, according to

Starting point is 00:21:35 uh, triple a is now $5. Uh, it's over $5. Uh, we've seen gas prices in California get as high as eight, nine, $10 in certain places. Um, should we expect food prices to explode upwards even further if all of a sudden oil and natural gas prices are going up? Like, is there a connectedness between, uh, food and, uh, and energy prices? Yes, that is correct. So, uh, great question as well. So historically speaking, you know, what you typically have is one, whenever energy prices are going up, it's a, it's a, it's a intermediate good for pretty much every other good in the world. It's hard to generate goods without, you know, energy, you know, energy as an input and obviously petrochemicals, et cetera, for plastics, et cetera. But there's also energy, you know,

Starting point is 00:22:21 is it part of the price for something like nitrogen, which is obviously used to, you know, to produce agricultural goods. And so when you think about, you know, the nitrogen fertilizer that we have, the ongoing trending rise in energy prices, those two factors alone are likely to keep upward pressure on food prices, at least until we find some amelioration there. And this is why historically, when you go back and you look at recessions, a lot of times, more than 50% of the time, the price of energy, crude oil, tends to peak in the actual recession. And we talked about this a couple of weeks ago. It usually just goes higher and higher and higher and higher until it ultimately destroys demand for itself, which is usually the last category of goods that

Starting point is 00:23:05 we consume where demand gets destroyed. You can't not go to work. You can't not eat. And so ultimately, the price will rise up to the point where supply and demand are in balance. And ultimately, that's one of those factors that causes a recession. How do you think about compounding increases in prices? So I mentioned last December, the number was 7% inflation. They were still conducting asset purchases at the time uh and this december they think that it'll be at five percent so let's just say those numbers are right we now are getting into kind of multiple years of high year-over-year growth but that's not just of the cpi number obviously there's things that make up cpi in terms of whether that's gasoline food at home out of the home whatever

Starting point is 00:23:45 like how what's like a rule of thumb or framework to analyze now when we get into these compounding and introduces things like base effect uh to have people understand what exactly is happening to the price of goods? Yeah, so there's, there's a few ways you can get around that just statistically from a mathematical perspective. So if you want to understand sort of how inflation is compounded over the last, you know, two years or three years, you can look at what we call on by Wall Street, something like a two year stack, which is just the two year average growth or inflation rate, you know, in that particular period, you know, it's, you know, Q1, or, you know, let's call it the last month, etc. Or you can also do it on it from an index perspective, right? Like you can

Starting point is 00:24:23 say, hey, look, since the end of 2019, we're going to index the inflation index, the nominal, the raw inflation index relative to, let's say, something like the overall household income or disposable personal income. And then you could see what the cumulative change is over a longer period of time. If you do that, for a long period of time in the pandemic, you saw actually an increase in private sector disposable personal income relative to the index change in inflation. We are now very clearly crossing that chasm in the wrong direction from the perspective of consumer income and consumer balance sheet. So now inflation from a cumulative perspective is really now starting to take its toll on society and particularly on the lower income cohorts of society who can't make easy substitutions for their consumption goods and services, or more importantly, just don't have the size of the wallet to absorb incremental consumption. When you start to think about jobs, we're near historic low unemployment. We were at, I think, 3.5%, 3.4% in February of 2020. Obviously, that skyrocketed 6.6 million people a week were filing for first-time unemployment claims at the start of the pandemic. It's come back down. We're at like 3.5% now. But when you go on Twitter, when you read headlines

Starting point is 00:25:43 on these news organizations, it seems like there's lots of layoffs that have already occurred and more people are thinking that they could be coming. Should we expect unemployment to aggressively grow in America? Yeah, unemployment is not going to aggressively grow until we slow economically aggressively. Now, our models are calling for and have been calling for an aggressive slowdown economically starting this summertime and persisting throughout the fall and into the early part of next year. So by the end of that process, yes, we will start to see a rise in unemployment and a reduction in overall, in total employment. But it's hard, you know, employment itself is a lagging indicator. It lags the broader rate of change cycle for

Starting point is 00:26:24 growth. And so you typically need to observe that growth slowdown. What you're observing from a headline perspective is just sort of what we call from a behavioral economic standpoint, which is just that's prospect theory. You know, we anchor on negative news because historically, you know, our interpretation of negative news feels worse than our interpretation of positive news feels good. And so it's very easy to get anchored on, you know, when markets are having down days, the red on the screen, you know, stories about layoffs, et cetera. But the reality is the U.S. labor market added three hundred ninety thousand jobs on a net basis in the most recent data point in the most recent month, which is May, you know, that 390,000 jobs compares to an average

Starting point is 00:27:05 of 190 jobs month over month, you know, in the five years ending in 2019. So we're basically running at about a double in terms of the pace of total employment growth, which is not something you're seeing on your screens every day, you're seeing obviously the layoffs, because you know, those might be leading indicators for the cycle getting worse. But ultimately, I think what's likely to happen is that we have a cooling of labor market conditions, and then eventually an actual outright deterioration that the Fed has to continue stepping its foot on the brake. Got it. And so when you start to think about the best case scenario for asset prices through the rest of this year, is your expectation that we go sideways to down and we continue with

Starting point is 00:27:41 kind of aggressive Fed policies? Or do you see some relief and potentially could stocks end the year up or anything like that? So it's a couple of things. I'll start by saying the most bullish scenario is having recession now that kills inflation that allows the Fed to get off this path. The worst scenario is the longer inflation stays hot, the more likely it is the Fed has to stay on this path of very aggressive monetary tightening, which will keep pressure on asset prices, risk assets, Bitcoin, et cetera, to continue going lower in price. You picked a hell of a day to wear that suit, by the way, because tomorrow is OpEx Friday. And for our friends at Spot Gamma, Brin Kachuba, who runs that service, he's calling out that this is the

Starting point is 00:28:28 shunkiest op-ex in terms of the size of overall puts that are likely to expire since March of 2020. When you go back to March of 2020, that marked a very significant low in risk assets, multi-year low in risk assets in terms of removing all that exposure from the short side of the trade and causing dealers to unwind those bets. Now, what's obviously very different now is in March of 2020, you had the Fed basically get as aggressive to the easing side of the equation as they had ever done. Basically doubled its balance sheet overnight and kept it going with $120 billion of QE for obviously way too long if you're talking about today's inflation. That is not the macro setup today. We're not at the bottom of the growth cycle. We're very clearly not at the bottom

Starting point is 00:29:07 of the liquidity cycle. So I'm concerned that you might get a temporary bounce in risk assets associated with that OPEX unwind that ultimately is to be faded. Let's call it in a few weeks or And then one thing, finally, before we even end, I'm going to be doing a boot camp with my friend Imran Laka, who runs Options Insight. If you want to understand some of these options markets dynamics a little bit better, because again, I think this is going to be a very important one, as I just mentioned, you want to understand these OPEX dynamics, options market dynamics, and ultimately how to use options to hedge your portfolio, come join us for this boot camp. We're going to be doing it on July 7th through 9th. Again, it's Imran Alaka over at optionsinsight.com. So go check that out if that's something that's interesting to you, because I think it'll be very interesting over the next month or two. My last question for you, my friend, 75 basis point hike in June.

Starting point is 00:29:57 They were supposed to do 50 in June, 50 in July. Many people think that they have to remain aggressive, but Jay Powell yesterday talked about 75 basis points won't be common. What happens in July? 50, 75, 100, 25? Does he quit? So I think if inflation behaves, it's going to be 50, right? But if inflation stays doing some version of what it's been doing, which is trending higher on a three-month annualized basis, it's going to be 75s and more QT, quantitative tightening, until the eyes can see. Again,

Starting point is 00:30:29 this all boils down to how willing is the central bank to basically do something about inflation and how quickly do they want to do it? And from my perspective, again, this is just my own interpretation based on, you know, analyzing, not even analyzing, studying everything that these people say and have been saying throughout this entire process. From my perspective, it seems like they're very concerned that they don't want to lose credibility of the Fed. Because once you lose the credibility of the Fed, the inflation genie or disease, as I like to call it, it's very much harder to treat. And ultimately, don't forget that Jay Powell is a human being. Do you really want to retire as the guy who let the inflation genie out of the bottle in

Starting point is 00:31:07 the United States of America and abroad? No, I think he's trying to protect his legacy and he's comfortable with having a mild to severe recession in doing that. If we got a recession, we don't have the debt dynamics in this economy from a private non-financial sector leverage perspective in terms of the buildup or the change in the debt service ratio that would cause something like the global financial crisis. It'll be a sort of short-lived recession that we can recover from and get to better times. And so I think that's ultimately the bet they're willing to make.

Starting point is 00:31:34 If you put a gun to their head, if they had to pick, you know, mild to, you know, recession over a continuation of inflation, they're going to pick mild recession. For sure. Where can we send people to find you on the internet?

Starting point is 00:31:45 Absolutely, man. I appreciate that. 42 Macro, come check out our website. Come check out our research. Produce, you know, what I think is some of the world's best research for every investor. And everyone gets all the same research

Starting point is 00:31:55 that tends to be an issue on Wall Street. And then so, and if you can afford it, The 42 Macro D Dale is my Twitter handle. I appreciate everyone for having me on, and thank you. I'll catch you there next week. My friend, you are doing a fantastic job. Thanks for keeping me educated. I dropped the link in the chat there.

Starting point is 00:32:10 Anyone who wants to go check out 42 Macro, highly suggest it. Let's keep praying. Let's see what happens. Well, I'll say this. Prayer is not a risk management strategy. 42 Macro is a risk management strategy. Oh, what a softball. All right.

Starting point is 00:32:24 See you, buddy. Double salute. See you guys. Later. Cheers, brother. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered.

Starting point is 00:32:41 Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #1009 Darius Dale On Why We’re Already In A Recession

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