The Pomp Podcast - #1038 Will Clemente On Navigating The Worst Bitcoin Market Sentiment In Years
Episode Date: July 9, 2022Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. In this conversation..., we discuss the bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, what happened in the past week, and what the on-chain data is telling us to be prepared for moving forward. WIll joins us regularly on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Will references throughout the interview, go to the Anthony Pompliano YouTube Channel. ======================= The number one name in NFT domains and the world’s most powerful wallet are teaming up to bring something new to the crypto and Web3 world: That’s right, Unstoppable Domains and Blockchain.com partnered to create NFT domain names ending in .Blockchain. It’s the perfect ending to show that you’re a believer in a decentralized future. The Blockchain.com community can get one, for free by signing up for the waitlist here. Free NFT domains provide all the benefits of premium Unstoppable Domains, including fee-free, lifelong ownership. Don’t have a Blockchain.com wallet? No worries, these new domains are available to everyone for as low as $5. Either sign up for a free blockchain.wallet or visit Unstoppabledomains.com to buy your domain today. ======================= LMAX Digital - the market-leading solution for institutional crypto trading & custodial services - offers clients a regulated, transparent and secure trading environment, together with the deepest pool of crypto liquidity. LMAX Digital is also a primary price discovery venue, streaming real-time market data to the industry’s leading analytics platforms. LMAX Digital - secure, liquid, trusted. Learn more at LMAXdigital.com/pomp =======================
Transcript
Discussion (0)
What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening
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Will Clemente is the lead insights analyst at Blockware. In this conversation, we talk
about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really
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All right, we got Will Clemente from Blockware. Will, what's up, buddy?
Yo, yo.
How's it going, Jess?
The young wizard. What's up, dude? We're super excited. We got a whole bunch of stuff to talk
to before we jump into charts. What is what's your general read right now on kind of market
sentiment? It feels like people were real scared two weeks ago or so when all the contagion was
kind of taking its toll. Now it feels like people got a little bit more relief and might not be as
scared. Is that your general sense? Yeah, I mean, I would say that, you know, perhaps rightfully so
some of the fear that we've seen over the last few weeks has been the most extreme that I've
ever personally experienced, maybe rivaled by like the COVID crash. And I remember during the
COVID crash, people were wondering if like, you know, the fundamental Bitcoin protocol had like
broken or something. Cause I mean, we just had gone down like 50% in a day, but I mean, it has
been pretty wild. I mean, every single entity that appears to have been kind of the adult in the room
turned out to just be degenerates like the rest of us so um yeah i mean i think some of the some
of the fear has been you know rightfully warranted but that doesn't mean you know i think a lot of
the a lot of the flushing out of malinvestment and leverage that we've uh seen over the last
month or two will be very healthy for the space long term and you know i think a lot of people
have been saying oh well you know this this hurts the credibility of the asset class people aren't
And I want to touch this thing with the 10 foot pole because, you know, we've got all
these, you know, Ponzinomics in the space and all that kind of stuff.
I mean, I think, you know, when I've at least spoken to some of these, you know, traditional
finance entities that, you know, I don't have a very large circle of, but I would say, you
know, a handful of these individual individuals that I've spoken to, they seem to be more
excited about this than anything, because they've seen this, you know, happen many times
in the traditional landscape. I mean, for example, what happened with 3AC, you've seen that take
place in traditional markets. I mean, that's not anything that's unique to crypto. So I think some
of these guys are kind of starting to get excited about basically buying distressed assets in a
marketplace that's experienced a tremendous amount of forced selling and is in a state of tremendous
amount of fear. You've got a lot of crypto native people that are now questioning even the
the viability of, of the space, uh, perhaps, you know, not on the magnitude of what took place in
2018, but certainly are starting to see some of that. Yeah. It, um, it, it's, uh, it's pretty
interesting when you start thinking through how, uh, a lot of this balances out and your references
back to 2020, 2018, you know, in bear markets before, uh, I think a lot about there's just
more eyeballs like i was trying the other day to figure out a good way to analyze it 50 of all
bitcoin and crypto investors weren't here for march of 2020 like that was my general guess
right maybe i'm off plus or minus you know 10 15 in either direction but like a very large
percentage of people who right now this second hold a crypto asset were not around in march of
2020 an even bigger percentage of them weren't around in 2018 right and you just kind of go all
the way back and so it's like i don't know take the like second bear market was 2013 or whatever
it was right uh three percent one percent of all people in the market today were around for that
so it's just like so many people are new they don't have the context of 2020 or 2018 and so
of course the market cycles to some degree will repeat uh because those people have to kind of
be indoctrinated into what happens as well, right? Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think part of why
Bitcoin cyclicality is so reflexive is because it's such a new asset class. So every cycle,
you know, when we run up in price, it's basically like a massive marketing campaign for BTC and the
broader crypto market as well. You get a tremendous amount of new users because Bitcoin just hasn't
reached saturation. I mean, we did our user adoption, came on here and talked through that
report. It's a very, very small portion of the world actually has any ownership of Bitcoin or
any other crypto asset. So every single cycle, you get a new amount of new magnitude of new
market participants. And on the move down, some of those people get flushed out and capitulate as
they come to the realization that they really have no fundamental understanding of the asset
that they're holding, uh, you know, why they're holding it aside from the fact that the price is
going up. Um, and, you know, you can see this in the data as well. And when we get back into the
bear market, you know, some of those individuals that, you know, come into, uh, into the bowl,
they, they stay around. Although again, a lot of them, a lot of them do leave. Uh, but the kind of
key takeaway is that like every bear market, that base of people who stay is higher and higher and
higher. When you're down 70% to 80% in asset, especially lately, we've got, again, we can get
into this in a moment, a tremendous amount of forced selling from basically every type of
entity that you could think of in the space. You've got the worst macro environment that I've
ever seen in my short little career in markets. You've got all that kind of uncertainty. Who's
buying down 70, 80 percent, you know, these are people who are likely relatively, you know, you
have some some traders that are perhaps looking for like a short term mean reversion trade. But
I would say the vast majority of it are likely, you know, people who are relatively time insensitive
and are looking to, you know, accumulate this asset at a distressed price. And so that, you
know, when you're down 80, 85 percent at the bottom of every Bitcoin bear market, you know,
the people that, that are buying down there and the, the quote unquote, you know, a cohort of,
of, you know, hands that, that the supply gets concentrated into are those who aren't going to
sell most likely for, for, you know, a 20, 30% move. And that's what allows, you know, these,
these moves back to the upside to be so aggressive in the same way that, you know,
the downside moves are so aggressive because the people that are buying, you know, once the asset
is up you know 10x from the bottom you know these are people that are you know likely just going to
get shaken out once once number isn't going up anymore um so these dynamics really um cause you
know a bit more momentum and fuel to the to the typical you know market cycles that you would see
in bitcoin uh and again you know some of it as well as is there's been a lack at least um
historically of a way to kind of tie in bitcoin to a fundamental valuation i mean i would argue
some of the on-chain related stuff is the best way to do so that we have. But I do think that
kind of exacerbates a lot of the fear and greed around just sole price action.
Talk a little bit about reflexivity. I've seen you tweet a number of different times about
that concept and maybe explain how you think about what is kind of a timeless investing
idea or at least one that's been around for a while now. Obviously, Soros and many others
have popularized and then why you're so interested in reflexivity when you're analyzing the Bitcoin
and crypto market? Sure. So I've got this book on my desk right here. It's called The Alchemy of
Finance by George Soros. And I know some people don't like George Soros for some non-financial
related reasons. I would say, you know, you can pull someone's ideas out, you know, even if you
disagree with other aspects of them. So I'm going to, you know, not comment on some of those
alternative reasons why people dislike Soros. But I do think from a financial markets perspective,
he's got a lot of valuable insight. In the book, you know, he talks about in like the first
five pages, he talks about this concept of reflexivity, kind of from a high level. And
the way to kind of think about it is that price movements and actions in the marketplace
reinforce these beliefs or behaviors. So, you know, for example, as you think Bitcoin is going
to be more widely adopted by corporate balance sheets, right? And that's something that a lot
of us thought in late 2020. We saw Saylor buy in. And then after that, we saw Tesla add Bitcoin to
their balance sheet at the beginning of February 2021. At the time, that reinforces that belief
from market participants that you're going to see continued adding of Bitcoin to corporate
ballot sheets. And that extension of belief and, you know, optimism in the market gets extended
because of the actions that are taking place. And it reinforces and further pushes out the
expectations of market participants. And, you know, that happens conversely to the downside as
well, where, you know, you have, you know, bad news events or events that are, you know, quite
bearish, like some of the things we've been seeing lately with some of these blow ups from different
entities in the space that reinforce and continue to push people's expectations lower and lower and
lower. And again, I think a lot of that in the Bitcoin and crypto market gets exacerbated because
of kind of the lack of, you know, saying, OK, well, you know, Bitcoin is at this relative to
its free cash flows that it's drawing in. Again, I do think there's other ways to value Bitcoin
aside from that. But I think that, you know, the sensitivity to basing Bitcoin's value off of price
action really kind of extends out some of those effects of the reflexivity in the marketplace.
You know, a lot of people were talking about, you know, over the last two, three years,
the concept of, you know, the super cycle, which I personally never bought into. But, you know,
the reason why was was really eloquently stated by light so there's this guy like crypto he's uh
supposedly a prop trader on on twitter he's anonymous um but i think he's got a lot of
insightful things to say and he went on a podcast uh actually at the pico top of of last year and
i was listening back to it last week and you know one thing that he said that basically ties into
what's what's stated by by soros is that you know although an asset can go through a super cycle and
And, you know, obviously not a whole lot changes fundamentally with the Bitcoin protocol, but the infrastructure around it does change, evolve and mature.
But, you know, the other crypto assets, you know, you have new, you know, innovation, whether they need, you know, whether they're decentralized or need a token.
Like that's a whole nother discussion I don't want to get into.
But like, you know, I would say that the utility of something like a maker, you know, maker DAO or Uniswap is better than the garbage that was around in the 2018 ICO craze.
So, you know, you have increasing utility of the underlying technology and again, the infrastructure around Bitcoin and, you know, that can go through a super cycle.
But what does not change is the underlying, you know, human behavior and the kind of psychological dynamic of fear and greed that drives markets.
And no matter how strong the improvement of the underlying technology can be, that doesn't mean that humans will not always continue to push out expectations further than the underlying value is, no matter how strong it is.
And conversely, to the downside, no matter how bad things get, humans will always push expectations lower than they actually truly should be because of kind of that dynamic that Soros talks about.
So when you take that idea and you look back over the last couple of weeks with all the contagion, the unsecured lending, just all kind of the chaos and uncertainty there, how do you think through what was like mechanical in the industry of just like, yes, this was very obviously going to unwind versus what is more like psychologically driven or kind of fear and uncertainty driven, whether it's people actually panic selling and doing that?
And the reason why I ask kind of backwards looking is I think it's really hard to understand what's going to happen in the future.
But at least if we do analysis on the last couple of weeks, what would your kind of process look like there?
Yeah, I mean, the fear side is a bit more difficult because it's not quantitative.
But like, I mean, to start, so, you know, when we look at what's taken place with, you know, all these crypto lenders, right?
I mean, a lot of this has been, you know, people seeing that, OK, perhaps, you know, maybe this this platform that I'm using isn't solvent or, you know, they have some some, you know, mismatched assets and liabilities.
I'm going to pull my assets off the platform. And so essentially, we've seen kind of a classic, you know, bank run style event take place on some of these platforms.
um you know and also by the way that's reflected in in the on-chain data um when we look at like
exchange outflows from centralized platforms um we've seen the strongest amount of exchange
outflows in bitcoin's history like straight up um and you know whether you know i think the
market's gotten a bit more nuanced to say whether that has like direct price related effects um i
I would say that, you know, I think that's a reflection of in recent times, just kind
of the hysteria around people questioning the solvency of any centralized entity in
the crypto space and is also why, you know, Bitcoiners advocate to say, not your keys,
not your coins.
So, you know, that's one example of perhaps, you know, maybe some of these entities did
have, you know, bad debt.
But then on top of that, you had, you know, users withdrawing their funds because they
became concerned around a lot of the contagion effects and that perhaps, you know, exacerbated
some things. But I mean, look, I think again, and now I guess we can get into this stuff in a bit
more granularity, but like, there's been a lot of for selling that's, that's taken place. You know,
let's just, I guess, let's just start with this one chart. So I, I'm not sure if, which one
Jordy has the newsletter up.
Let's look at,
so it's the correlation of Bitcoin's market cap
and ETH's market cap to the crypto market cap.
It's like the third chart down in the newsletter.
And this one shows the market cap of Bitcoin
and the market cap of ETH at top
and then the correlations kind of going down, right?
Yeah, exactly.
So we're looking at Bitcoin's market cap
plus Ethereum's market cap.
And then we're running a correlation of that to the crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin and ETH.
And so, you know, as most people in the space know, Bitcoin and ETH are really the two most liquid assets.
You know, of course, there's Tether and USDC, but, you know, those aren't, you know, directional assets.
you know, crypto, I mean, Bitcoin and Ether are really the only two, you know, liquid crypto
assets in the space. And so what's interesting to me about this chart is when you see this decline
in the correlation, it's pretty strange. It's like probably like the most aggressive
decline in correlation that you've seen between these two in a long time. What I think this is
representing is for selling. And the reason is because in an event like this, where either you
have recently, we just finished out the second quarter. So you have not only the end of the
quarter, but also the end of the first half of the year and the end of the month, like all three of
those things. Perhaps you have some fund redemptions taking place. And then you can also
have some of these lenders concerned about the solvency of all their counterparties. So they're
asking them to post collateral just to, you know, see if they do have the assets that they're
claiming to have, you know, all these kinds of things perhaps are forcing people to, you know,
trim off holdings in assets that, you know, they have to trim off, not assets that they necessarily
want to trim off. And, you know, the only, again, the only assets that really have, you know,
liquidity to absorb large, you know, large outflows are BTC and ETH. You know, a lot of
these altcoins just really are just getting all the liquidity and then dried up. So, you know,
even if you want to exit a position, you really can't do so without, you know, having a like
material effect on the price. And then on top of that, let's say you're like a VC invested in some
project from like, you know, some seed stage, you know, you're not going to really want to
drive the price down 70% because that's just going to really hurt your reputation as a VC.
So I think a lot of these things have kind of added up to seeing this, what appears to me as a dynamic of force selling of the two most liquid assets in the space.
So when you start to look at something like this, let's then overlay it with Murad in his much anticipated return to Twitter.
He started to post this graphic or this chart, and what he shows is the Bitcoin-USD trading pair, and then he shows the total amount of Tether and USDC, and they appear, at least visually, to be inversely correlated.
When Bitcoin goes down, it appears that there's more stablecoins there. Is it just that simple, like there's an inverse correlation or no?
Yeah, I mean, so what this chart is essentially comparing is just the total crypto market cap to USDT and USDC, which are the two largest stable coins.
And so kind of the concept behind this is that whenever you get to kind of the upper bound of this ascending channel, that means that there's a large amount of capital sitting in stables versus being deployed in the crypto market.
And then whenever you get to the bottom end of the channel, what that is showing you is that there's a large amount of capital deployed into actual liquid tokens relative to the amount of, you know, kind of dry powder through stable coins sitting on the sideline.
And, you know, as you'll see, kind of around that question mark, what Murad is essentially, you know, kind of hypothesizing in this chart is that you've got a large amount of assets sitting in dry powder via stable coins relative to being deployed in the crypto market.
and you know as you can see sometimes you know we kind of hang out on that on that upper bound for
you know perhaps a month or two but you know generally speaking whenever you're pushing up
against that upper bound of the channel that's been a good time to accumulate and you know part
of you know part of moves is not necessarily it's people like being on the sideline and not
you know being in the market and then forcing them to chase and I would say there's a fair
amount of people because of a lot of the uncertainty that are waiting for the market
to show them strength to get back in. So that's just something to kind of put this into context
with, you know, perhaps as, you know, if the market did move up, you would see people,
you know, want to wait for that confirmation to get back out of stables. But for now,
you're seeing a large amount of dry powder that's kind of sitting on the sideline relative to
being deployed in the actual market. Got it. You also recently put out some charts around
the Bitcoin four-year trend, and you identified that that four-year trend, Bitcoin is trading
below it for only the fourth time ever. How important is that? Like only four times in
the history of Bitcoin sounds like it's super, super important, but how do you evaluate this?
Sure. I mean, when we talked earlier about, you know, how do we value Bitcoin? I would say there's
two real ways to do so. One would be looking at kind of the underlying like fundamental dynamics
via on-chain, what's going on with miners, those types of things. And the other would be more
price and trend related. So what this is looking at is the latter. So we're looking at the four
year price trend of BTC. We've seen Michael Saylor post about this. And then when we look at,
I kind of unselected these other metrics in the chart, but you can also look at the number of
standard deviations from the four year trend. That's been kind of a good signal to see where
Bitcoin's peaking out. But this four-year trend has historically served as kind of this support
area for Bitcoin in bear markets. When we look at 2015, excuse me, 2018, 2020, and then as well
recently, we're below it. It's just, again, the fourth time ever that we've gone below.
I think the question when we look at a lot of these metrics across the board is these are all
in like these deep value levels. But the argument to be made is like, is this time different because
of kind of the macro backdrop? I don't you know, I don't know. You know, obviously, no one knows
time will tell. But I think, you know, at least from a long term investor's perspective, it's a
good time to start, you know, putting some some dry powder in the market and, you know, starting
to average in a bit here at these kind of levels that historically, you know, marked Bitcoin's
at least an accumulation and bottoming zone. Another good example is looking at the next
chart. This is basically the deviation from the 200-day trend. And then we also up there have
realized price, which is like the average cost basis of all the investors in the market.
Bitcoin's only ever traded below both of those for 3% of its existence. And a lot of that took
place in that portion in 2011. And if you, you know, pulled that bit out, it would be even
smaller than 3%. But it's just another, you know, way to illustrate, you know, we're at historical
levels of what appears to be, you know, cheap valuation, relative historical valuation for
Bitcoin. I think one last, I guess, dynamic we could talk about is the dynamics with miners.
That's been something that I think has been important to keep in mind lately.
And it also kind of ties into a lot of the force selling that we talked about has been taking place.
So for several weeks now, we've been putting in the newsletter essentially that you're seeing favorable conditions for miners to starting to have to unplug.
I tweeted about a month ago that I said, you know, lower Bitcoin price, higher hash and difficulty and higher energy costs have put serious pressure on minor margins.
Hash price is now the lowest since October of 2020.
Hash ribbons have crossed and I'll talk about what all this means.
Hash ribbons have crossed, indicating machines unplugging and miners sending Bitcoin to exchanges.
So what's been taking place is you have this kind of delayed effect historically with hash and price.
So, you know, there's a delay in when you order ASICs and when you're actually able to plug them in for a variety of reasons.
But, you know, if we go back and look, you know, the most recent before now was, you know, 2017, 2018, you saw Bitcoin's price peak at 20K and actual hash rate, you know, didn't peak until two, three, four months after that.
And what happens is like miners are essentially, the way you can think of it is they're long Bitcoin price, short hash rate, and thus short difficulty as well, which is a byproduct of hash rate.
And so what happens is like the price is going down of Bitcoin while it's becoming increasingly competitive to get the same miner revenue.
And so what you can look at to illustrate this is something called hash price.
So this compares miner revenue and Bitcoin's price. And hash price is at the lowest that it's been since mid to late 2020. So just showing you, I think hash price is a good way to kind of illustrate the compression of miner margins.
And then you throw on that, we've got inflation at 40-year highs, and a lot of that has been driven from energy costs. So you've also got higher energy costs, which is miners' biggest operational expenditure that they have on top of that.
So, you know, all that puts together kind of the perfect recipe for a lot of minor margin compression.
And so at the time of posting this, like a month ago, you had saw hash ribbons, which are looking at the 30 and 60 day moving averages of hash rate starting to cross, which had illustrated that you're starting to see some machines getting unplugged.
And now we've seen confirmation of that cross. And we've seen the 30-day cross pretty significantly below the 60-day, which is showing you that machines are starting to get unplugged. And then on top of that, we've started to see over the last month, especially after I posted this, inflows of BTC from miners to exchanges.
And then kind of the cherry on top was over the last few days, we saw Core Scientific selling off 7,202 BTC at an average price of 23K, which comes out to about $167 million that they had to liquidate.
And so, you know, the dynamics that we're seeing here with miners have taken place before, you know, you had Nick Carter on about a month ago, and he talked about how, you know, miners are really pro cyclical force for Bitcoin.
So, you know, they hold their assets in the bull market. And then as you know, you kind of see that, that turnaround, and all the dynamics that we just described, you know, hash continuing to come online while price is coming down, and then you throw on now the rising energy costs.
those margins really come under pressure. And the inefficient miners that don't have access
to the cheapest energy, they have to, at a minimum, unplug their machines, at a worst case,
liquidate their operations. And so I do think you've seen a lot of that. And as long as Bitcoin's
price hangs out down here, and if it does go lower, then you'll see continued pressure on
some of those miners. And I do think you'll see some consolidation of miners who perhaps got a
bit too greedy and, and, you know, didn't manage risk as well as others, uh, over the last two
years. I think that, uh, uh, as people wake up to what's happening, obviously in hindsight,
it's very easy to, to kind of identify all of this stuff, right. And be like, Hey, this is why
this is occurring. And right now, uh, it's super valuable to people because, because they're
starting to realize, okay, the price doesn't just magically go up. The price doesn't just
magically go down. There's actual things that are driving that price. Uh, and once they start to
understand what's happened, they start to see how complex and intertwined so much of this is
everything from the contagion to the minor selling the price, the difficulty adjustment,
the cost of electric, like there's just so much of it that is interrelated. Before we let you go,
where can we send people to find you on the internet or, or subscribe to the blockware
newsletter? Sure. No, thanks, man. I'm on Twitter at W Clementi. I appreciate you having me on. I
I tried to put on the dress shirt to get on your level with the suit.
You know, we got to do what we got to do here in this bear market.
You can check out the newsletter.
It's in my bio at BlackWareIntelligence.com if you're interested in anything.
Will, you own a suit and tie?
I do.
I have one.
Yeah, I have one too.
This is the only one I have.
And I wear it every day now until the bear market.
We got to get the bear market over.
John laughs all the time because he's like, we got to get this over because he's tired
of wearing the suit and tie already.
Where's John's suit?
John is right here in a t-shirt.
john's too smart to uh to have signed up for the suit and tie i was gonna say will the patagonia
makes you makes me think you're joining wall street oh man i went to um i went to new york
two weeks ago and uh i went i went and met someone in uh like the financial district i was walking
through and uh i i saw bill ackman walking around by the way and i was trying to get him to buy our
internet ponzi but he wasn't interested um i i saw a bunch of i saw a bunch of the guys walking
around like, you know, the JP Morgan building, the BlackRock building, and they were all wearing
this vest. And it was after I bought it, I was like, oh God, like I'm really like a finance bro
now. That's the, that's the uniform. If you don't got the uniform on, then, uh, then you're in
violation. All right, buddy. Sounds good. We'll talk soon. We'll do it again next Friday. All
right. Thanks guys. Later. Take care. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really
hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite
podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or
crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a
curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with
over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more
and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.
