The Pomp Podcast - #1141 Bill Pulte On Twitter, Elon Musk, Bot Farms & Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Bill Pulte is an entrepreneur, an investor, and the creator of Twitter Philanthropy. He serves as the current CEO of Pulte Capital and was a former director of Pulte Group. In this conversation, we talk about a $15 billion annual revenue company that had a COO who created a bot farm and was attacking them, stealing identities, and all kinds of chaos. We also discussed Bitcoin, Elon, and the purchase of Twitter, why Bill invested in that deal, what he thinks about the housing market, the Fed, and the US economy. I always enjoy talking to Bill

Starting point is 00:00:41 and I hope that you guys enjoy this episode. Once you get done listening, jump on Twitter and let us know what you think, what you liked, what you didn't like, what you agree with, and what you disagree with. We always appreciate the feedback and it helps us get better. Here is my conversation with Mr. Bill Pulte. This episode is brought to you by Exodus. Accessing Web3 across multiple networks just got a hell of a lot easier. Exodus is one of the most popular crypto wallets

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Starting point is 00:03:03 All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. All right, guys. Bang, bang.

Starting point is 00:03:25 I've got Bill here. You and I have known each other for a long time now. There's a whole bunch of stuff we're going to talk about from Elon and Twitter, which the deal you invested in bitcoin the economy the housing market all that but first you've been in the news quite a bit lately uh there is a 15 billion dollar by choice necessarily okay there's a 15 billion dollar publicly traded company of which your grandfather started called pulte homes sure and uh one of the executives there was essentially running like a bot farm and coming after you allegedly and we have obviously very good proof uh we feel very confident in it but

Starting point is 00:03:59 But basically, the number two in this Fortune 500 company was running these different identities to attack me, attack my dead grandfather, attack my family members. And in many cases, it was almost daily that this was going on. You know, I get a lot of stuff that said bad about me, just like you do on Twitter. OK, I can handle a lot. But when you have, in this case, a guy taking a dead guy's identity and repurposing it for these Twitter bots, for example, and then having these AI generated photos. there's one girl she looks like in her 20s or 30s another guy looks in his 20s or 30s and then you got this dead guy right and they're all you know attacking and amplifying each other and what's really interesting about it is that we saw a lot of uh non-public confidential information coming

Starting point is 00:04:43 from these different accounts these fictitious accounts and so you know me being a former director of the company you know i was able to pick up on a little bit of okay you know that's not information that's out there in the public domain this is potentially a problem and so uh i started to get smart with it and without getting into the forensics too much we uncovered it and like you said it's become quite a big story in the last week or so so this individual was doing this and um as you started to uncover it like did you think that oh there's a bot farm or was it more of uh that account's weird let me go check that account out and then like you kind of uncovered the whole thing well what was weird was that they were starting to interact with each other so for

Starting point is 00:05:22 For instance, when I'm improvising, I'm not necessarily quoting a tweet here because I'm in litigation with the guy I'm going after and personally for doing this. I'm not suing the company, but, you know, they would interact with each other. So some some one of the bots would say something and then the other bot would come in and say something back to give this impression of, you know, that they were talking to each other. And then they would like the tweets and retweet them and stuff like that. And again, you know, my concern is I care a lot about my grandfather, my family's former business, Pulte Homes. I care a lot about our name brand, a lot about the company being successful. And if you have a number two, this guy was the incoming COO of this Fortune 500 company running this type of smear campaign. This is not somebody that you want running a $15 billion a year revenue company.

Starting point is 00:06:11 I mean, how does somebody like this have time to do something like this when they're responsible for so much across this Fortune 500 company? It just doesn't make sense. How common is this type of stuff inside of these big companies? I think a lot of people throughout the last couple of years have seen various large companies that are publicly traded that you think it's just a normal company. I'll put that in air quotes, right? But then you come to realize that either the individuals are doing crazy things or the company is doing crazy things. Like you've been in and around these companies. You were on the board of this specific company.

Starting point is 00:06:40 how common is this type of stuff well you know always at the board level you're always wondering okay what isn't management telling us right they're always telling you great things that they're doing but what aren't they telling you i think you know and i i don't know what the board's thinking necessarily but i what i would speculate whether it's this board or another board or a company board is that when you see this kind of stuff you start to say okay how did this guy have this much time to do this kind of stuff on company time, allegedly, we have very good proof, and potentially on company devices and company equipment. I mean, this is a problem. And so, you know, it begs the question, okay, what is going on at some of these other Fortune 500

Starting point is 00:07:20 companies? How do we make sure that, you know, as we have pension funds, investors, people investing in these big companies, you know, it's one thing to invest in a crypto company, no offense. And, you know, you know that you're getting a risky deal. It's another thing to invest in a Fortune 500 company and have an executive be running something like this. And I think that's what's so shocking about this or like the COO recently, who I think it was Beyond Meats guy, right? Who bit somebody's ear at a football game. I mean, it's just behavior that shouldn't be happening for a Fortune 500 executive. Why has the media been so interested in this? You've been on a bunch of different outlets and they seem to really have kind of latched onto this. What is it? Is it

Starting point is 00:07:57 that it is a Fortune 500 company? Is it that it's an executive? Is it that it's your guy's family's company and your name's still on it, even though I don't know if you guys own shares or not still. Like, why is the media so kind of enthralled with this specific story? Well, they first thought it was just wild accusations. They said Pulte, and I was even on CNBC and Scott Wapner saying, these are wild allegations, you know, and I understand he's a journalist, he's got to push back. But all those wild allegations looks like they're pretty darn true. And, you know, Pulte Group went, I was on CNBC on Thursday at 4.30 or something. And by Friday morning, the gentleman was fired from Pulte Group. So there's something true here. We're going

Starting point is 00:08:36 to get to the bottom of it. But I think that people just have a hard time believing that somebody in this position could be doing this kind of stuff. Yeah. And it begs the question of Twitter more in general, right? I've seen studies where people have looked at negative content around a specific story, and it's like 80, 85% comes from a certain number of accounts, right? We've seen accusations of Twitter, like hate speech and all that stuff skyrocketing since Elon took over. Elon pushes back and says, no, actually, that's down. We've been able to kind of mitigate those risks. How do you think of Twitter as a product itself in terms of the conversation where if this does happen, like is that a prevalent thing on Twitter or is that just some person who ends up doing this in this one specific case and it's not actually the norm on Twitter?

Starting point is 00:09:19 Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily the norm. I mean this was very calculated, very malicious, right? I get trolls all the time, all day, every day, right? That's same. If you're on Twitter, that's basically what you do for a living is you hear from people. But you very rarely see a well-compensated Fortune 500 executive use that brainpower to conceal his identity and discuss the company by which he is a senior executive of. I mean, this is very unheard of as far as I'm concerned.

Starting point is 00:09:47 I mean, you know, when you go to sell stock or when you go to discuss stock, as far as I know, and obviously we're getting into all the legalities of this, but when you go to discuss a public security that you're affiliated with and you're a senior executive with information that the public is not aware of, you cannot be using that position to put out information as long as you're not disclosing that to all investors and investor relations departments. I mean, that's why they have investor relations departments. And what was the type of non-public information? Obviously, you don't say the information, but what was it? Was it revenue-type metrics? Was other things well just some of the stuff that we've released so far is about employees and

Starting point is 00:10:24 layoffs in particular and and some of the information that only somebody who was kind of on the inside necessarily would know and that tipped you guys off to some degree it tipped me off as a former director of the company saying okay this is stuff that only somebody uh with access to board materials or to the ceo would know and that raises another question you know how did this guy get this information right because uh you know he wouldn't necessarily have had access when i was on the board to certain information so there's a lot to unpack here and we'll see but uh you know i'm just glad that we at least put a stop to it temporarily at a minimum i mean this has been going on for years we think one of the weird things or maybe unusual things

Starting point is 00:11:04 is that like your family started a business the name polti is on the business but you all aren't there operating the business is that like a weird thing do you think that uh many families deal with that when they start companies they end up either bringing them public and they no longer operate them? How do you kind of balance that in your head that like your family's name is on something, but you guys aren't actually making the decisions? Well, my grandfather started at age 18. He was a carpenter and he built it into something that was way more successful than he ever thought. And I think the reason he went public was he wanted to incentivize the employees to build something amazing. So I think from an early age, kind of the DNA of the company was maybe more,

Starting point is 00:11:39 and it's hard to believe this these days, but I think they do exist, especially for a depression era boy like my grandfather, where they're very selfless. And so, you know, they were very much like, hey, let's get everybody rich who's helping us get rich. Let's have everybody do it that way. So, you know, it's never really been about, oh, just it's Pulte on the door and everything. But we do feel a commitment to make sure that, you know, we stand behind it. One of the things that he allegedly did was he was attacking people for not being able to qualify for a Pulte home, not being able to purchase a Pulte home necessarily. And that's also what we want to make sure that you know executives aren't making fun of people for their financial status yeah uh

Starting point is 00:12:17 we mentioned twitter earlier uh you were an investor in the take private of twitter yes with elon kind of leading the way but he raised money uh privately how can you explain to people kind of the private fundraising process or at least your experience in it in terms of uh the 44 billion dollar price point obviously was this big number and i think there's a lot of people who think like elon pulled 44 billion dollars like he just withdrew it from his bank account one day and like sent it somewhere. Talk a little bit just as to like how that type of deal comes together. Well, it was really interesting because I've invested in a lot of different funds and stuff. And usually you're waiting for the fund and you're waiting for these different things.

Starting point is 00:12:50 And what was kind of cool about it was in real time, you were watching him. And obviously I didn't have any information about this, but you know, from the news reports, you were reading about how he was selling stock to basically fund the purchase. And so it was almost like, okay, you're kind of, you know, riding alongside or behind Elon, so to speak, as he's going to do this. And so it was very, very much backseat. But my, my general investment thesis was that, you know, and I've been exposed to a lot of entrepreneurs, whether it's my grandfather or other people, and I've been able to learn from a lot of these type of people, as I know you have. And, you know, Elon is just the world's greatest entrepreneur as far as I'm concerned. And so,

Starting point is 00:13:25 you know, I'm not necessarily sure what he's going to do with Twitter, but I certainly would have been, wouldn't bet against him. And so I put, you know, several million dollars into the deal and we'll see what happens. It's fascinating to hear your thought process, because I think a lot of people would assume that investors are going and they're looking through all the documents and the financials and, and all this stuff. And sometimes like that's not even provided to the level of detail that an individual would believe it to be. But also we saw a number of well-known investors. I think Mark Andreessen, some of the texts came out where he basically had said, Hey, we're in for, I think it was $250 million or something. We don't need to do any

Starting point is 00:13:56 diligence. Like we're just in. And that was kind of the theme of the whole deal, which was fascinating. But that like leads me to believe that most investors are just saying this guy was at least integral, if not the driver of SpaceX and Tesla and Boring Company and Neuralink, like all these other companies that appear to be working, I bet that he can figure Twitter out. I'm going to bet on him more so than I'm going to bet on this specific financial state of the deal

Starting point is 00:14:18 or anything like that. And he has such confidence with it, right? He knew the platform, right? We're power users of it. Most of your audience is power users of it. So here he is, a guy going in to acquire a company. He knows it very well back and forth, right? He's a brilliant engineer.

Starting point is 00:14:32 He's a brilliant software engineer as well. He's going to figure it out. And I think he will. So I think this thing that they're doing with the tweets, by the way, where they're going to put the view count on the tweets, I think that is going to be explosive because I don't think people understand how far a lot of these tweets go. Even, you know, it doesn't matter whether you have 10 followers, 100 followers or 3 million followers.

Starting point is 00:14:51 You know, these tweets get seen by a lot of people. And I think once you start to see how many people are seeing these tweets, the thing is just going to even spread more like a virus. You and I both, because we've talked about it in the past, have done hundreds of millions of impressions per month on that platform. And there's almost no other platform in the world where you can do that on a consistent basis. It is, in my opinion, the most powerful social media platform when used correctly, which I think you and I both have figured out to some degree. What else do you think he should do? So he adds the view count public so people can see, hey, here's how much reach these tweets are getting.

Starting point is 00:15:24 Are there other things that stick out in your mind? He's got to figure out how to monetize it. you know, I've been one of the early people who give away cash on Twitter. It was kind of a thing that was once upon a time, like, what is this, what is this all about now? It's like the hot thing to do. Um, and so if he can figure out how to tap into this, you know, strike while the iron's hot on this money thing on Twitter, and I'm not necessarily saying it has to be philanthropy, but I know obviously he has a background and David Sachs has a background in PayPal and these things, but if they can figure out how to make this a commerce site and really a, uh, what is it? A

Starting point is 00:15:54 WeChat, so to speak, this thing could be otherworldly in terms of powerful. I mean, this could be the most powerful app in my opinion, in human history. Yeah. What's fascinating to me is that it already serves the purpose that LinkedIn was supposed to serve. Like I don't check LinkedIn for messages or like networking or any of that type of stuff. But if somebody DMs me on Twitter, for the most part, I see it. Right. And then if I want to reach out to someone, maybe I'm weird, but I go to Twitter first. I don't go to Instagram. I don't go to LinkedIn. I don't go to Facebook. I don't look for their email. I was like, go to Twitter. am I following them? Are they following me? Can I DM them? And, but that's also the industry that

Starting point is 00:16:29 you're in, right? Correct. Absolutely. Like I'm in the construction industry, for example, and you wouldn't necessarily go find a foreman or something like that on there. For sure. But I think that he understands the tech industry and the finance industries on Twitter. And so like, if you're in those industries, it works, but that's like, yeah. And media. And so that's like a networking thing. But what you're really talking about is if he can then cross over and also make it a payments thing now, rather than me go to dinner with a friend and i venmo or i paypal or i do any of these other things i just go on twitter and i'm able to just pay someone that's pretty damn powerful because if you can get payments on

Starting point is 00:17:02 there plus you have the uh communication and you've got the networking you start to rival every single other app to your genius and not only that but you know again because we're twitter philanthropy think about it from this standpoint we go out there every day we raise money for people who are dying of cancer who need groceries who need medicine who need all these kind of things. And, you know, it's called direct giving. So, it's not this traditional philanthropy, which can be great, where you give $30 million to build some building, okay? This is direct giving. This is acute, right to the source, right to the issue, whether it's groceries or what have you. Let's say you see people on Twitter, for example, and you see somebody who's dying of cancer. By the

Starting point is 00:17:39 way, this happens every day, okay? I see it every day. And you want to help that person. You could click a button, boom, send them cash. Now, right now, you have to go to their profile, and then you have to choose between Bitcoin and USD. So, you know, if Elon can figure out how to crack that code, I actually think that it can do tremendous wonders. This is going to sound like a little bit of a crazy idea, but it can do tremendous wonders in ways that the government and social security and Medicaid won't be able to do. And it'll get the money quicker, faster, directly to people. I've always thought, and not in my idea, just one that I've learned over time, the velocity leads to productivity, right? So if you can get velocity of money, if you can get velocity of

Starting point is 00:18:18 output. If you can get velocity of communication, you get output. What you're really talking about here is if you can get velocity or reduced friction in the movement of money back and forth, people will not only use it for traditional peer-to-peer type payments or reimbursing each other or whatever, but they'll find these new use cases, which I think one you pioneered was this Twitter philanthropy. And there's probably plenty others that someone out there in the world will either figure out, they'll pioneer, they'll champion. And all Elon has to do is just reduce the friction of being able to allow people to pay each other and then just let the internet magic go to work correct and i don't know if you saw what he did but he renamed it from super followers to

Starting point is 00:18:53 subscribers that was genius um just because super followers sounds just very tacky in my opinion and now that he has subscribers he can compete with substack he can be more like youtube so we'll see it is a little concerning uh that he wants to step down as ceo i think it's just because he's fatigued but uh again i don't know anything there but yeah that would be disappointing would you be disappointed it would yeah yeah i mean i think that he's going to make it work no matter what i think he's always going to be you know actually the ceo but you know nobody can replace his genius yeah what about the twitter files like in this whole like dump of uh data and information and ideas like there's the information and then also how he's publicizing

Starting point is 00:19:33 it like he went to independent journalist and said like hey i'm going to give it to you rather and then give it to one of the big media companies? What did you think about that? I thought it was excellent. And in fact, I just started PulteFiles this last week to expose these different bots that were using dead people's identities to attack me and my family and stuff like that.

Starting point is 00:19:49 And so I'm leaking this stuff out slowly but surely. And it's called the PulteFiles. So I was very impressed with the Twitter files. And we should be doing more of that, right? At one point, you had WikiLeaks. And now it's the Twitter files. And the more transparency, the better. Yeah. And then what about the actual information itself, where there was social media companies working with the government, the government was providing information? Like, how do you think about, is it, there should be no communication between the platforms and the government, there should be a lot, there should be somewhere in between? Like, how do you just think about, as a society, like, what should be acceptable and what shouldn't be?

Starting point is 00:20:23 I think it's a big problem. And I think Jack Dorsey was trying to figure it out in terms of being decentralized. I think that's why we love Bitcoin, right? It's because it's not controlled by any one person. So that's why I really want Elon to stay selfishly as a CEO is because I think he has the brainpower to solve how we get Twitter to be decentralized to where really, unless it's something where you're breaking the law or whatever, you know, somebody who just wakes up on the wrong side of the bed one morning can't shut you off of Twitter. I mean that should be – Twitter should almost be a human right to some extent in my opinion. Why do you think it should be a human right? Because I think that everybody has the right to free speech in my opinion. And again, as long as you're not actually causing harm or doing some form of illegality, again, scams and these type of things should all be taken off there. But I think that people need to express themselves. And when you don't express yourselves, then what happens is you get things like January 6th or you get other different things where people get bottled up and then they they're going to find a way to, you know, do what they're going to do one way. So you might as well have it in the open.

Starting point is 00:21:26 Yeah, I think sunlight is the best disinfectant. Yeah, I agree with that. You mentioned Bitcoin. The last time we talked, I think, was towards the beginning of 2022. And you rightfully said, hey, I think Bitcoin is going to crash. You were smart enough not to put an exact price target or a timeline on it, but you were like, sometime this year, I think there will be like a correction. Talk a little bit now in hindsight, after having said that, kind of this year and how it's transpired, how much of it fit within what you thought was going to happen versus you got the intended outcome, but maybe some of the details were different. Good question.

Starting point is 00:21:59 So, you know, in the economy, obviously, the way that I look at it anyway is that housing and transportation can often be leading indicators of the economy. And so what I was seeing when I was here with you last, earlier this year, was I was seeing some of the deterioration in housing, right, because it's a leading indicator. And so then what you saw also from my perspective was you saw a deterioration in lumber pricing. And so you started to see some of these commodities that had gotten so big so fast, you know, in terms of price. And so I said it's only a matter of time before, you know, the drain in liquidity coupled with this commodity disinflation affects Bitcoin. And so that's why I had said that. What are your thoughts about Bitcoin now? Price has gone down 75%. I think you're still holding Bitcoin. You like Bitcoin. Is that all

Starting point is 00:22:41 true? Yes. And I'm going to wait to be buying a little bit more. I think that it's still a little too expensive given the liquidity dynamic. I think we're going to have continued liquidity problems in the market, in my opinion, first quarter of next year. And is that all being driven by the Fed just tightening financial conditions, keep raising interest rates and selling off assets? You know, again, you're talking to a housing guy. So I have kind of a unique perspective from an interest rate standpoint. We say in housing that interest rates are the mother's milk of housing. And so when you cut off the mother's milk of housing, in my opinion, that also goes downstream into the economy. And so I think that these interest

Starting point is 00:23:16 rates, the effects of these interest rates has not really been felt. It's been felt in housing, but I don't think it's made itself to mainstream business. And as you think about those interest rates, we've seen all year long, they've continued to increase we've seen the sell-off of asset prices um and they've stated we want to destroy demand we want to destroy demand they've done a fantastic job on the investment appetite side there is very little appetite for investment at the moment on the other side though you have consumer spending you have a household income you have savings like all these other metrics that seem to still be like fairly healthy how do you balance uh destruction of investment assets and investment prices with

Starting point is 00:23:54 what still seems to be a somewhat strong consumer i think it's only a matter of time and i think you you know, we're in the HVAC business. That's where I spend a lot of my time direct to the homeowner. And we are seeing people being really reticent, so to speak, to spend the big ticket items that they were doing a year or two ago. So I think it's going to be a lag effect and it's just a matter of time. Yeah. And that means that the Fed at some point will have to pivot and- I think they already have. I mean, they went down to 50 basis points and, you know, I think they'll continue to increase, but it could be potentially pretty tough. Four and a half percent now, what do you think they get to?

Starting point is 00:24:28 I don't know, but I'll tell you this. I don't know, but I'll tell you this. These mortgage rates are not very good. These are not very good things for the housing market. And so I think it's going to be good for the housing market as a buyer, as a consumer. I think it's going to help a lot of people. But the zoning in our country has made it, in my opinion, to where in addition to people not being able to build enough because of the last recession, people don't want to build a lot of these big subdivisions anymore. And so I think that's also going to keep housing prices pretty high. When you evaluate the mortgage market, we've seen an explosion. I know people who are getting 2.2%, 2.5% mortgages a year ago. Now, all of a sudden, they're looking at 5% or 6%. is it literally just number goes up, demand goes down, or is there more complexity to it? No, it's literally as simple as that. I mean, obviously, you have the wage issue as well. But

Starting point is 00:25:22 you have you have basically, if you dumb it down, you have interest rates, and you have wages and wages have stayed pretty strong, whether that's through inflation or through, you know, the inertia in the economy, but you have this interest rate situation. And it definitely what it does is it initially affects traffic. And then once you see it in traffic, you see it in orders. And then once you see it in orders, you start seeing it in cancellations of homes. And you've seen cancellations go from, you know, in some of these cases, 12, 13% of orders to 25% of orders. I mean, that's a huge increase. Yeah. And in cancellations, people, you know, signing a purchase agreement and then canceling it later. That's not good. You know, a quarter of the homes being

Starting point is 00:26:00 canceled. Yeah. When you see something like inflation coming down on an year over year basis. So now we're down around 7% or so it was up almost 9%. Is that something where you're just like, okay, if that number keeps coming down, then the Fed will kind of go sideways, they don't need to keep raising interest rates? Or do you start looking at the compounding effect, right? I think last year in November of 2021, year over year inflation was 6.8%. This year, it's like 7.1, 7.2%. So now we're getting into a period where more than 6% inflation compound annual growth rate, which is a really scary number for the average consumer. How do you start to incorporate that into your investment decisions or even your consumption decisions? Well, I think this is why

Starting point is 00:26:40 you and I both love Bitcoin, right? And so much of your audience loves Bitcoin is because we understand the power of compounding. So even though in rate of change terms, you're not going to have the increases that you saw this year in inflation, right? It's still going to remain elevated. And especially, again, I'm a housing guy. So if you keep these housing prices high for a long period of time. And, you know, you're essentially devaluing the dollar through every year compounded, right? These mortgages are also going to be devalued because they're based in US dollars, right? So I think you're absolutely correct that this is why Bitcoin is so attractive over the long haul. I just happen to think that it might have some more downside before it.

Starting point is 00:27:20 I mean, it could potentially scream again, right? And just epic fashion. Yeah, I mean, it's pretty crazy. The whole use case that you laid out when everybody thought you were crazy few years ago has totally proven itself as far as i'm concerned the two pieces to the argument the store of value uh there's lots of people who say hey if it's a store of value then you also said it was going to be an inflation hedge and uh they look at the price has been in many ways though compared to other things so that's my argument is bitcoin has actually been the best inflation hedge because uh if you go back to 2020 it was trading eight thousand dollars uh before inflation crossed over 5%. It went from 8,000 all the way up to $64,000 in March of 2021. And so from that

Starting point is 00:27:59 standpoint, assets and markets are forward-looking. It saw inflation is coming. People ran to an inflation hedge asset and it increased in price. Now what's happening is as the Fed said, hey, we're going to tighten conditions. We're going to go ahead and destroy demand. Again, forward-looking all of the people who are holding and say, oh, these inflation hedge assets aren't going to do nearly as well as they bring down inflation. They have liquidity issues in the economy. I'm going to sell this asset and i'm going to go into value stocks or other types of cash or whatever that's to me exactly how an inflation hedge should be working is it goes up before the inflation hits and then it comes down when they go and they destroy demand right exactly right mic drop

Starting point is 00:28:37 i can't even say it better yeah when you think of your portfolio today that's just math i mean anybody who takes issue with that look at where bitcoin was and look at where it's at now i mean it's crazy to think that you've had all this this increase in interest rates and it's still staying at what 15 16 000 it's double where it was at the beginning of 2020 you know i mean pigs get fat hogs get slaughtered so anybody who's claiming oh well you know it went up really high well you know should it have really gone up that high was that part of the mania as well i don't think that it has fundamentally something to do with bitcoin yeah and when you think of those fundamentals everything still you think is intact in terms like the argument for bitcoin it's just the price has

Starting point is 00:29:14 the volatility to it. Yes. Yes. All right. When you think of your portfolio today, given where we are in the economy, how are you allocating capital? Like, do you think of percentages to stocks or real estate or Bitcoin or how do you think about it? Yeah, I'm almost 100 percent in stocks and other than my Bitcoin allocation. And the way that I look at it is, is I also sell calls on my stock. So, you know, for people who aren't familiar with that, you know, you can have a broker, you can have somebody else, you know, effectively sell calls. And especially in a liquidity-draining environment, there are opportunities where if you're smart, you can just let the time premium bleed off and then basically pocket the difference. So I've done

Starting point is 00:29:50 fairly well with that strategy now. Now, when the economy is doing well and when there's plenty of liquidity, you can get your head ripped off selling calls. But so far, it's worked out pretty well for me. And then I'm investing in these other construction-type businesses. When I say construction, it's really home services businesses. So heating and air conditioning and stuff like that, you know, air conditioning is kind of like oxygen, everybody needs it. And so I'm pretty passionate about, you know, selling air conditioning. And, you know, making sure that people have it, we have a big business in Phoenix, Arizona, for example, and people need air conditioning in Phoenix. What is the logic outside of just air conditioning? So home services in

Starting point is 00:30:25 general? Is it just these are businesses that are needed? And if you operate them, well, they're profitable? Basically, okay. Yeah, I've got a friend who I've talked about on the podcast. like simple you know all simple is good um he started to buy up a lot of electrical companies right with electricians and his thesis was basically hey we're not producing nearly as many electricians as we used to trade school isn't as popular people still need electrical work done it's not going to be automated away if i go and i buy up these companies who are usually family run and you know there's some sort of transition period between generations uh at some point i just have a monopoly pricing monopoly on markets and so i can increase prices i can do the

Starting point is 00:31:01 things i need to do because i have the electricians and there aren't that many competitors Is that true in other types of home services as well? Well, I wish I would have talked to your friend. And I don't know, is he making money doing it or not? I believe so, yes. Okay, good. So it depends, you know, what kind of, maybe he's looking for investors.

Starting point is 00:31:15 Depends what kind of electrician work you're doing. One of the problems from my perspective with electrician and plumbing as a business is yes, it is very fragmented. Yes, it is very unsophisticated. Yes, it is very hands-on. So people have to do the work. So robots aren't going to be replacing it anytime soon.

Starting point is 00:31:31 But the big difference from my perspective is that the ticket size, when you're going to sell these type of things, whether it's, you know, fixing somebody's electricity or whether you're fixing a toilet, you know, the average price per sale is pretty low. And so your ability to really generate gross profit dollars to cover your overhead every month and then shoot out a bunch of EBITDA, shoot out a bunch of earnings is pretty limited because you have that low order value with plumbing and with electricians compared to HVAC, for example or even compared to like homes for example you know if you sell one home right and you're selling it for a half million dollars a piece there's a lot of gross profit dollars to

Starting point is 00:32:07 go around so you have to do i guess what i'm saying is you have to do a lot of work to make a lot of money in electricians and plumbing you can do it it's just harder yeah and with uh things like hvac like walk us through like a normal engagement with a customer so you guys go in like what's an average order ticket size and then how do you guys think about uh profit margins and things like that? Well, it depends on the market like everything else. But generally speaking, let's say it's a $10,000 priced unit or an $8,000 priced unit. What you're trying to do is you're trying to go into the home and you're trying to fix the system that's there. And if you can't fix it, you try to give options to say, look, you know, we can replace this coil, we can replace

Starting point is 00:32:44 this condenser, we can do this, we can do that. And so you have kind of that service and replacement component to it. The thing that's kind of interesting from my perspective is that a lot of these new units are being able to be more durable over long periods of time. And I think that's what consumers are going to be pretty happy about in the next 10 to 20 years. And I think this is even why Elon Musk, I don't know if you saw, he wants to get into air conditioning. Because if you can build something that lasts for a really long time, you could clean up in the air conditioning space. This episode is brought to you by Eight Sleep. The holiday season is here, so give the never-ending gift of deeper sleep. About two years ago, I started to sleep on the Eight Sleep, and I

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Starting point is 00:34:45 You can do it at home or in one of their 23 hosting facilities around the world. All you need to do to start mining your own Bitcoin is go to compassmining.io today. Again, if you want to get into Bitcoin mining, go check out compassmining.io today. What are some of the other lessons that you think people should take away in terms of investing in these kind of down markets or building companies, right? So obviously, when you say things like air conditioning is oxygen, That's like a recession-proof type business. I don't care what the economy is doing. There's some places like a Phoenix where in the summer people want air conditioning, they need air conditioning, and they're going to pay for it.

Starting point is 00:35:20 Are there other things that you're either looking at or lessons you've taken from 08 or other market downturns that you think is important? Well, 08 was a big deal for me because my family stock went from, you know, the family business that we founded went from $46 down to $3 a share. And so that's a way to humble somebody up really quick. And so I saw my dad and my grandfather stressed out significantly in 08. And I said, I never want to be up at night worried about putting food on the table for my kids because, you know, some cyclical industry blows up. And so while I'm still focused on housing and I was involved with Pulte Homes significantly, where I've made most of my money has been in these non-cyclical, absolutely critical services. And I would encourage people to do that. Keep low debt and just cash flow, cash flow, cash flow.

Starting point is 00:36:08 I mean, that's what it's all about. A lot of people get tied up in these different things and the sexy things and, you know, fast moving software and this kind of stuff. You got to make money, in my opinion. Or at least I know I got to make money if I want to give it away on Twitter. And when you are looking at the growth of these companies, how much of it is growth by acquisition versus like organic growth where you can go hire more salespeople? You can go and get more business drummed up through, you know, various business development activities. Like, do you just try to buy up a bunch of companies and roll them up or is it more organic? Well, we buy into the companies or we buy the companies.

Starting point is 00:36:38 But for the most part, the growth is coming from our know-how, having built, you know, Pulte Homes in my grandfather's case and him having transferred a lot of that knowledge to me, a lot of that institutional knowledge about how to build these companies. I've been able to then go about implementing it in these different companies. And so our growth rates are anywhere from 100 to 300 percent. And some of these unsexy businesses like heating and air conditioning and stuff like that. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out if you have a business that's in air conditioning growing at 100% to 200% to 300% per year, you can make a lot of money pretty quickly. And unfortunately or fortunately, I need to do that because I'm giving away so much money on Twitter.

Starting point is 00:37:17 Yeah. How much of the growth gets tapped out in a market? Like let's say you're at 300% year over year and you have five years, right, or whatever the numbers end up being. The growth rate naturally will slow as you get a bigger kind of denominator. but can you just tap out a market and then you have to make the decision like either go buy a company in another market or like this is the business that we're going to have because we just saturated this entire market good question first you want to go to markets where it's very hard to saturate right so we're in phoenix for example we're in atlanta georgia we're in los angeles right so um if we ever get to market saturation levels we'll be very happy and we'll

Starting point is 00:37:49 be able to give away a lot of money uh to a lot of different people um so yeah that's kind of interesting, but we try to focus on getting the market right first and not being in the middle of nowhere where, you know, the dollars just don't make sense. And we're trying to make, you know, a lot of money doing this, as I said, so we can fundamentally transform the way that philanthropy is done on a direct giving approach. That's what we're trying to do with Twitter philanthropy. What about the labor market? You guys obviously employ a lot of people. Are you seeing any changes there over the last year? Yeah, you got to pay people enough. I always here and I love boomers, but I always hear boomers say, you know, these young people, they never want

Starting point is 00:38:26 to work. But I always say, first of all, there's young people who want to work. It's just, you got to pay them enough to want to work, you know? And that's one of the things we teach in our businesses is people often say to us, well, how do you get people to grow so fast in the trades, right? In the heating and air conditioning and plumbing and electrician, because, you know, a lot of people don't want to do that type of work. Well, some of these guys are making 150, $250,000, $300,000, $400,000 a year doing air conditioning. I mean, I know one guy who he was in a different business, kind of a traditional Fortune 500 type role. And he went in and he became an HVAC salesperson. Now, before you say something about that, understand this guy's now

Starting point is 00:39:03 making $700,000, $800,000, $900,000 a year, right? Maybe over a million dollars this year he'll make by the time this year is closed out. So there is just tremendous opportunity where other people won't want to work and you know it's not sexy it's not you know podcast it's not mr beast type stuff right where you're making money um and i give you guys great credit for building it it's this unsexy work but we make good money doing it yeah and when you talk about like paying people enough i recently wrote about the minimum wage and what's fascinating to me federal minimum wage still $7.25 been that way since 2009 uh obviously some states have increased the state minimum wage But what has always been interesting is that there are private or publicly traded companies that have set their corporate minimum wage at much higher rates.

Starting point is 00:39:51 So you can go down the list. There's everything from Disney to Facebook to Aetna to JPMorgan Chase to Amazon, et cetera, that all have $15 or more as their minimum wage. That's their average starting salary or even higher. I think Amazon's at like $19 now. And so when you start to look at some of this stuff, the paying them enough, you're essentially highlighting the fact that politicians at the national level say $7.25 is the minimum. But companies are saying, I can't get anyone to come work for $7.25. I need to pay $15, $16, $17, $18, $19 an hour just to get these people to show up. Well, ironically, a lot of that happens to do with what politicians have caused with inflation, right?

Starting point is 00:40:26 People need to do that. So in a perverse way, they actually haven't helped as much as they've hurt by with this inflation and printing all this money and everything. And so people need that type of dollars to live. This is why you and I get along is because that's exactly what I was writing about is that in Turkey, they have 85, I think it's 84.5% annual inflation. So year over year, price change of goods and services in that country is 84%, which is insane, nearly impossible for the average family to survive and by basic necessities. Just this week, we saw the Turkish politicians go ahead and vote and implement a 55% increase in the minimum wage. and so there's a lot of people who say hey inflation's high there's people who are suffering let's increase the minimum wage but one of the things that they don't understand is if you

Starting point is 00:41:12 increase minimum wage by 55 you're essentially increasing the labor cost for corporations if you increase labor costs they're going to increase their prices to be able to remain profitable which actually in some weird way means that they may be contributing to more inflation rather than actually being able to just help the people so it's like a good intended outcome for helping individual workers, but you may actually be exasperating the inflation problem by having the government intervene in the market. And so, you know, how do you all think about what's going on in the economy, but also like the decisions you make and the prices that you choose and all these things, you're probably not thinking about inflation as much as you're thinking about,

Starting point is 00:41:47 like, what are the costs of our goods? What are the costs of the inputs? What are the costs of labor? Like all that stuff to determine what you're actually selling this stuff for. I think the best way to do it is to go on a business by business level. So for example, we own 12 companies, as I said, in the air conditioning space. The advice I give to the guys there is like, hey, we need to figure out like, number one, how should we be pricing these jobs? Number two, can we make money doing it? Because if we can't make money doing it, we can't afford to pay these people these prices. And ultimately, we can't afford to keep the lights on. We can't afford to pay ourselves. You know, we got to get paid running these businesses and

Starting point is 00:42:18 stuff. And so I literally look at for a living, you know, hundreds, now thousands, it's probably tens of thousands of companies for a living. That's literally what I do in this kind of space in the home services space. And what I'm saying is that some of these guys shouldn't be in business. And that's not something that should be, you know, told to everybody. But a lot of people need to look at it, in my opinion, a lot of these businesses and say, hey, can we actually make a business work? Now, in those big markets, like LA, Phoenix, those type of markets, it can handle a lot of competition. But some of these places, people are competing, and they're just losing their you know what, because they're not priced properly, and the market can't support their businesses.

Starting point is 00:43:00 So it's kind of a sad thing to say, a sad thing to see. But, you know, if you can't afford to pay people, maybe you need to go to a different geography, or maybe you should be doing something else in business. If you had to go back to the beginning of your career with all the knowledge you have and you're a young person today in this market what would you do yeah well i'm still screwing up and learning so that's good um and so i continue to do that um but yeah that's just where i've made most of my mistakes is is through running these different companies and you know seeing what pisses people off and then you know having them quit and then learning the hard way um so you know i just say embrace the mistakes and that's what i've tried to do but uh you know

Starting point is 00:43:41 finance is the language of business in my opinion that comes from a housing guy a tradesman type guy with nails and drywall and flooring and roofing and stuff like that. But you can do that stuff all day long. But if you don't understand finance, and I'm talking about literally knowing income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, I think that's what's going to make or break people in this next period of time as people who really have what I call in our companies complete and accurate financials. And it's just unbelievable to me how many people are operating these companies that are doing 10 20 30 50 100 million worth of revenue and they don't have complete and accurate financials what are the biggest mistakes you see that they make like are

Starting point is 00:44:20 they just like ignorant mistakes or like lack of focus with the financials yeah like when you're looking at a business and you see that they're not complete and accurate financials like what would you say are like the two biggest things you see as mistakes well the most thing is that like so let's say you're in the podcasting business or let's say you're in i don't know the marketing business or let's say you're even in the housing business okay you understand those trades very well. But I think what often happens is entrepreneurs don't want to look and understand the basic financials. So the balance sheet, the income statement, the cash flow statement. And from my perspective, when you don't have the, when you don't have the, um, the understanding of

Starting point is 00:44:54 the trade and the finance at the same time, uh, you're really setting yourself up to get screwed. And so from my perspective, that operator, I don't care how great of a mechanic they are, how great of a plumber they are. They need to understand how their financials are built and closed at the end of every month. And there's a high, high correlation between people who are worth, you know, 50, 100, 200 million dollars. And I'm telling you, damn near everyone I've met knows the trade side, meaning the individual specialty, as well as the finance side. I've yet to meet somebody who just knows about the trade side of things. And yeah, that would be probably the biggest thing. What are you hearing from banks? You talked a lot of financial

Starting point is 00:45:34 institutions as well um are they doling out money to kind of professional investors and wealthy people and they're saying hey go in and start investing now we think now's a good time to buy up assets that may be underpriced uh are they still waiting what are those conversations if you've proven to make money banks will lend you money but in this environment right now everybody's tightening up and if you're not a proven commodity if you don't have uh you know if you're not a creditor who can pay back the money they don't want anything to do with you from my perspective And so I think that's also going to impact private valuations it already has, right? But specifically in the leveraged buyout market and some of these profitable operating companies,

Starting point is 00:46:10 I think you're going to start to see some multiple compression come down because financing isn't going to be as available. And that's just a math equation, but it's also I think a lot of these credit committees at these banks saying, hey, you know, yeah, we'll give money to Pulte because we know he'll pay it back, but, you know, maybe this person we might not. Yeah. Is that what they say to you? They're like, hey, you make money, we'll give you money? yes basically yeah yeah people don't like lending money and then losing money it turns out shocking i mean it happens in these low interest rate environments where people convince themselves that they do but that's just i don't want i don't want you to tell any of your uh your secrets but uh when you go to raise money whether it's debt or equity do you like i don't raise equity debt

Starting point is 00:46:47 thank god okay more so i raise debt just to you know get a little bit extra kick on the return when you do that do you just go back to the same partners or do you create like auction type processes where there's a bidding war? Like, how do you actually go through it? And what I think would be interesting to people is most people who listen to this are probably in tech and venture capital and more used to the equity type fundraising. But when you're looking at these debt type deals, and you're going to the banks, how exactly are you able to get kind of best terms? Well, from a debt perspective, what really matters is cash flow, net cash flow, how much money are you putting in the bank at the end of the day? Because debt holders, I wouldn't say that they're

Starting point is 00:47:21 smarter than equity holders, but they're way more conservative. And so, you know, again, I'm a big fan because my family has gone from having a housing business that made a ton of money to losing billions of dollars a year, right? So, we don't want to do that again. That was a big no-no. So, I try to buy businesses. I don't care whether they're software, whether they're housing, that are making money. And maybe that limits the growth, but you know what? I'm not going to get screwed all the time and I'm not going to get lines of credit pulled and those kinds of things. so i forget where were we uh how do you actually go and raise the the debt financing so when you go to raise the money basically you say look okay first of all i only put things in front of banks

Starting point is 00:47:57 that are bulletproof from a cash flow perspective because um all it takes is one deal to blow up in my opinion and then banks do not view you as a high fidelity investor anymore now you do have different private equity funds where they'll have deals blow up and stuff like that but that also affects their track record. So I really try to focus on the cash flow, make sure it's recurring, make sure it's a stable business. And then and only then will I go and raise the debt. Yeah. And then how do you think about paying off the debt? Do you just pay whatever the minimum monthly payments are? Do you try to pay it off as fast as possible? We have a phrase at our companies, and it's not sophisticated, but it's one that we came up with,

Starting point is 00:48:36 which is crush debt. So for example- I know exactly what that means, which means it's a great phrase. Yeah, crush debt. And, you know, I talked a lot about net cash flow and buying these companies with net cash flow. But even more important than buying companies with net cash flow is crushing debt, because the net cash flow is a leading indicator to being able to crush debt. And if you start to see your debt balances go down, I'll give you an example. I'll give you a real life example. We just borrowed $10 million a few weeks ago to do a dividend recap to take money out of a company that's doing very well. We decided not to sell the company because it was just making so much money. It's growing so fast. We poured our heart and soul into it. So we took a $10 million dividend out of the company. And what we've done is we're not just focused on the earnings power of the business, but

Starting point is 00:49:21 we're actively focused on paying down that $10 million. And I think we're already paid it down by like $2 million or something like that. So the net debt balance is down to like from 10 to 8 in a period of however many weeks. And my point being is that to me is like the ultimate measure of being able to get wealth and liquidity is being able to get rid of your debt. Talk how those work. So you've got a business, that business is profitable. It's got cash in the bank. You guys want to take a dividend out. Why are you taking on debt? It's because you need to have some working capital to be able to operate the business? No, not at all. Entirely the opposite. It's we've done very well. We have

Starting point is 00:49:52 cash flow. We can borrow debt. But the real reason we're doing it is because we believe that U.S. dollars are depreciating in value. And so if we go and we buy, for example, if we go and we buy or we go and we borrow debt let's say we borrow the 10 million and let's say i put the 10 million spy in the s&p 500 in my opinion uh you'd be better off um taking the u.s dollars putting it in the s&p 500 using the cash flow paying a little bit of interest expense and on a you know weighted average cost of capital i think that it's going to make tons of sense to be investing the S&P 500 than the US dollar, even with this interest expense. So most people are familiar with the interest rate where they interact with it is on mortgages. That's probably the number

Starting point is 00:50:37 one place. And maybe they've got some treasury exposure or they've got some interest on longstanding debt that has a variable rate or something. But for corporations, like you're describing here, what is the difference between the interest rate that you would have paid last year kind of during the mania and the interest rate that you would pay now after the Fed has kind of increased interest rates so much? It's meaningful. But again, a good business can afford an increase in interest rates, right? And I think that's one of the things that's very informative about this whole experience has been. And when I try to preach, always is like, you know, look, my family's been through these cycles and these shitty businesses,

Starting point is 00:51:11 excuse my language, where, you know, boom and bust, boom and bust. And you really want to build a business that can withstand anything. And so, yeah, that's what I focus on. Last thing I want to talk about is Twitter philanthropy. You are the pioneer. You're the creator of Twitter philanthropy. The first time I saw you giving away money, I was like, holy shit, you know, what is it? What is he doing? Right? Why is he doing this? And it seems like it's taken on a life of its own. Like, what is the update now at the end of 2022 for Twitter philanthropy? I mean, it's bigger than ever. It's more viral than ever. You know, I've always said Twitter philanthropy will never be successful as long as it's dependent on me and my money,

Starting point is 00:51:45 because I'm just one dude who's got money. So we need to get other people involved in it. And that's what we've done. We have this team Pulte Twitter account. I don't know if you've seen that, But we've got like 300,000 or 400,000 followers there between that and the Pulte family Twitter handle. And basically all day, every day, we're raising money. It's a beautiful thing. We're raising money for people who are dying of cancer, people who need these type of things. So I think the best is yet to come. Yeah, and the money, just so people are clear, when you guys say you're raising money,

Starting point is 00:52:14 you're basically putting a spotlight on certain opportunities. And then people are going and they're giving the money directly to these individuals. Correct. It's not like a traditional philanthropic thing. In the sense, as an individual, I'm not going in and then whatever. It's through this team, Pulte, which is a 501c3. It's got a board. And basically, they pop up these different campaigns.

Starting point is 00:52:32 And then what I do is I use my 3.2 million teammates to help. We come together and we try to help these individual causes. And thankfully, it's gotten so big on these other accounts that we don't need to use my account all the time to do that. So we use that really to kind of build out the team and compound it. so when you kind of zoom out it's 2022 are there like two or three lessons that uh you take away from this year just don't buy any of the shit that doesn't make money so the timeless investing principles just find things that are throwing off cash yeah and buy those yeah and and it's not even that too it's just also like there's a lot of stuff that's producing cash right now

Starting point is 00:53:16 and it's like okay you know is that stuff really gonna be around in five or ten years you know and I'm all, you know, I think oil is something that's needed, for example. But, you know, before I invested a ton of money in that or invested even in some REITs, you know, which I know a lot about real estate and REITs, is I would just be very careful what price you're paying, what market you're in, because, you know, I don't think that it's I don't I don't think the cash flow is guaranteed, even if they're spitting it out right now. Yeah, it's it's always a pleasure to talk to you. Where can we send people to find you on Twitter? At Pulte, at P-U-L-T-E. No bot farms, no multiple fake identities. Don't steal from dead people's identities.

Starting point is 00:53:57 Start attacking me and my dead grandpa. You know you're a Twitter detective now. Like you're a Twitter philanthropist, but you should put in your Twitter bio, Twitter detective, if you're going to start cracking down on the bot farms. Elon should hire you to go and find the other bot farms. We'll see.

Starting point is 00:54:12 Good to see you. Thanks for having me. All right. Thanks so much for coming. We'll do it again. See you. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you enjoyed this one.

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The Pomp Podcast - #1141 Bill Pulte On Twitter, Elon Musk, Bot Farms & Bitcoin

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