The Pomp Podcast - #1364 Jack Mallers | Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million This Cycle

Episode Date: May 23, 2024

Jack Mallers is the Founder & CEO of Strike. In this conversation, we talk about the macro environment, the edge case, use case, investment case for bitcoin, bitcoin vs shitcoins, politics, regula...tion, and why he believes Wall Street will capitulate and all become bitcoiners. ======================= BetOnline.ag is a proud sponsor of the the Pomp Podcast. Use crypto to bet on sports, play poker and enjoy casino games at BetOnline. Visit https://promotions.betonline.ag/pomp and use promo code POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus on any crypto deposit. BetOnline boasts no crypto transaction fees, and processing is anonymous, instantaneous and secure. ======================= Bitcoin builders, apply for Supra’s Million Dollar Bitcoin DeFi Accelerator dedicated to Bitcoin L2 ecosystem dApps, and get their powerful price feeds and verifiable randomness services for free too. Not a builder? Earn $1,500 by referring Web3 projects to apply for the accelerator. The projects can get financial support while you get $1,500 for every referral. Learn more and apply for the accelerator: https://supra.com/pomp-btc/ ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

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Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's up, guys? Bang, bang. Today's episode is with Jack Mollers, the founder and CEO of Strike. In this conversation, we talk about the macro environment, the edge case and the use
Starting point is 00:00:39 case and the investment case for Bitcoin, how he thinks about Bitcoin versus shit coins, what he thinks about politics, where regulation is going, and why he believes that ultimately Wall Street will capitulate and they will all become Bitcoiners. I really enjoyed this conversation. I learned a ton. Jack is always in top form, and this one is no different. So here's my conversation with Jack Mallers. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his
Starting point is 00:01:18 personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Today's episode is brought to you They just launched a brand new million-dollar Bitcoin DeFi accelerator dedicated to Bitcoin L2 ecosystem dApps. Bitcoin builders, you can integrate with Supra's price feeds into your dApps and apply for the accelerator at supra.com slash pomp dash btc. Again, that's supra.com slash pomp dash btc. It's open for a limited time, so get moving ASAP. By the way, the program includes free access to Super's price feeds with 600 to 900 millisecond date of refreshness and next-gen accuracy, as well as low-latency verifiable randomness, both serving over 55 blockchains, including Bitcoin L2s. With these powerful services and
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Starting point is 00:03:27 Bang, bang. I've got Jack here. uh maybe let's just start with the easy stuff um what's going on in the macro environment why do all these people on wall street want to buy bitcoin like is the legacy system broken uh i think so i think we're probably nearing the end of the geopolitical setup that we have today my favorite way to think about it is through global debt to gdp so i think of money as our time and energy in an abstracted form. What I mean by that is you do this podcast in exchange for this podcast, you get money, right? I work on strike in exchange for that. I get money. So my collective
Starting point is 00:04:08 contributions to society and what I wake up and do every day, I get money. So money's an abstraction of our time and energy. I think governments being able to borrow their own currency is as close to time travel as we've ever come to. And what I, here's why I mean, what I mean by that is that I'm effectively allowed to borrow the time and energy from the future, right? So if money is our abstracted time and energy, and as a government, I have my own currency that I can borrow against, that means I'm borrowing time and energy from the future. And so when I look at global debt to GDP at something well over 300%, that means that they've borrowed a lot of time and energy from our future with no growth to pay it back. And that's a huge
Starting point is 00:04:54 problem and that loss has to be realized. And I'm not a macro economist. I don't have a college degree. That's as simple as I think about it. I think it's helpful to think about money in the form of time and energy because then it becomes real. People are always like, well, why don't you carry the debt forward? Why don't you print the money? It's like, well, no, no, no, it's not a piece of paper. It's all of our time, energy, our contributions to this world, all of our lives. And so who's going to realize that loss? If we're entering the future with a hole in our balance sheet of time and energy. Whose time and energy is going to pay that back? And I think they have two options. Either they can let the banking system fail, the bond market fail, and that's
Starting point is 00:05:32 whose time and energy will be making us all whole. So Jamie Dimon's time and energy, all the bond holders' time and energy, all the banking system's time and energy, or they have to debase the currency and take the time and energy of the collective populace. And everyone, the market is now starting to lean towards the fact that they're going to weaken the currency to make hole on the time and energy they borrowed that they can't pay back. So that is how I think about it. That is why I think it's terrifying as an investor. And then that's why I think Bitcoin is the best thing you can own. So let's say that they're going to debase the currency, which I think a lot of people agree with that. Maybe people debate how fast they're going to do
Starting point is 00:06:10 it, how catastrophic could they make it. But what's interesting is that people now are running out of the dollar kind of in a systematic way, but they're buying stocks, they're buying real estate. They're buying Bitcoin. They're buying gold. There's many things that they can buy to get out of it. And each one of those assets is denominated in dollars. So on a nominal basis, if you buy a stock that's worth $100 today and you sell it later for 120, you quote unquote made money in each asset. Why Bitcoin over those other assets do you think specifically now Wall Street and kind of the traditional finance world, why are they buying it? Is it just it's new to them they didn't have access to the etfs or is there something else driving it no i think it's the best
Starting point is 00:06:53 expression of fiat debasement um it is the antithesis of fiat currency it has no central bank it has no government its monetary policy is fixed its supply is capped it's everything that fiat isn't and so if your problem is fiat debasement then it's best expressed through bitcoin so you're taking the opposite it's a put option on the existing system it's long vol right? Like, I don't know. I'm talking trader speak, but that's what you want. And traditionally you try and find that through something, right? Gold. Here's this collection of chemicals that like kind of gets me close. Real estate. In theory, they can't print any more land. Does that mean they can't print any more real estate? No, of course. I mean, I'm sitting here in fucking
Starting point is 00:07:34 New York city. They could build pretty high buildings, but like, I don't know. I'm kind of close. Bitcoin is the only instrument in your portfolio that we humans created to solve this exact problem everyone has their own interpretation of the white paper but i mean come on give me a break satoshi right after 0809 created it and said central bankers i can't trust them and so this is the best expression of the problem at hand and so and in more plain speak what that means is that it goes up the most so for those that you know need to put two and two together that means it's going to be the most performant so why does wall street want it i have been more performant than ken griffin for 10 years that's why they want it people aren't stupid right you
Starting point is 00:08:16 either have to work 10 times as hard to outperform a bitcoin holder or you just own bitcoin but does that mean that you're not going to outperform ken griffin for the next 10 years it depends if he owns bitcoin then no but even let's say he doesn't buy bitcoin right if the contrarian trade led to the asymmetry like basically i think of it as like the risk you take is the return that you should get in return right and so uh to buy bitcoin in 2015 or even 2020 frankly uh was high risk in most people's eyes and so you got this insane return um compared to historical you know asset price returns today it feels more consensus and so let's just use easy numbers let's say it was compounding at 100 a year you know for a decade or whatever uh going forward i think most people
Starting point is 00:09:04 would say it'll be lower but the question becomes is that like 10 a year 50 a year if it's 75 a year sure it's down from 100 but 75 a year compound growth rates are still pretty damn attractive compared to almost any other asset in the world yeah i'm not i call bullshit um i think we're still so early in the bitcoin story i don't see i'm public on record saying i think bitcoin hits 250 to a million in this cycle so now i'm speaking the next like 10 to 18 months and that's not, what did you say? 70%. I mean, that's a lot of percent. So why do you think it's going to go up so fast, so high? Because, so I think it's the best expression of currency debasement. I think it's the best
Starting point is 00:09:46 expression of the problem at hand, right? So it's a mirror. Bitcoin's a mirror. I look in the mirror, what do I see? Some ugly fucked up shit. That's why. And so I think it's going to reflect the issues. And that's the reason Wall Street wants all these ETFs too, is Bitcoin is the only free market in the world. It's the only like pure human. It's volatile. It reacts to the world we actually live in. It makes moves. It makes noise. It makes stories. It makes headlines. And that's life. And that's why they want that. I mean, banks are making money on these ETFs. They're not making money owning bonds. And so I think for all of those reasons, it will directly reflect the world that we're living in today. And I think that world's very, very banged up.
Starting point is 00:10:28 I think central banks have gone through progressively trying to fix, price fix markets to keep everything together. And what market is up next? The all mother of all markets, the bond market, the sovereign debt market. And so how much money is that? We're looking at the dollar yen swap line that just opened. If the US government, if the treasury is going to be giving unlimited dollars to Japan and China to protect their currencies, you're going to get two, three COVIDs in this cycle as far as stimulus and printing. People are too fixated on the cost of capital as far as rates. They need to be more fixated on the amount of capital, which is they're still printing dollars. It doesn't matter that rates are at five and a half percent. It's still
Starting point is 00:11:10 inflationary. And so for those reasons, I think, how am I supposed to predict the most fixed asset in the history of mankind against the biggest fucked up problem that central banks have ever had to try and solve i don't i mean come on 250 to a million i feel super confident about that so i'll agree with some of it i'll disagree with some of it which is the banks are definitely making money on bonds on five and a half percent rates i think over a longer period of time the depreciation of like the value of the bond is going down so if you look at like tlt it's down you know 20 over the last five years or something so i think that what becomes interesting is some some of the banks or maybe use like the stable coin issuers like they're they're probably the
Starting point is 00:11:51 better example so they're buying treasuries and basically rotating through them right and they're driving i think the numbers for tether are like a billion dollars a quarter or something right so like that when people evaluate it's like oh my god look at this cash flow this is amazing what i think you're arguing is yes but you're getting it in a depreciating fiat currency so unless you convert it to something else actually you may be better off just buying bitcoin and holding it for the long-term. Yeah, but your real return. So, you know, just dissecting what you said a little bit, banks right now are making a lot of money on whatever they're getting five and a quarter, five and a half back, but they're not going to go lend real money to real businesses right now.
Starting point is 00:12:26 So the value, the actual denominated value of the bonds are getting absolutely obliterated and that's putting their, their balance sheet underwater. They're functionally insolvent. So they aren't actually stimulating the economy. So right now banks, there's like $3 trillion of banking reserves on the fed's balance sheet and they're just collecting if i'm a bank executive i'm not doing jack fuck all i'm going to just sit on my hands never lend any real money and just collect payment right because also they they have the benefit because of the accounting rules where they don't have to mark the bond to market so even though they're losing if you think it's like the capital value right enterprise value is being destroyed uh they get a market is just at cost
Starting point is 00:13:06 And then they're getting the cashflow. So it makes them look much better than it actually is. Correct. But this is unsustainable economic activity. And so to me, that doesn't count. Like the U S government part loves tether, hates tether. They hate tether because they don't love fully reserve systems that just take advantage of rates. Like they're willing to give you these rates and these accounting tricks so that you play the game. And so diamonds playing the game and like that business is screwed because you're also not getting the growth that the government is producing with the capital you're lending them. They're not paying you the full growth of the economy. The economy is growing 10% or whatever. They're paying you five. It's like,
Starting point is 00:13:44 well, I'm going to go put my capital to where I can realize the growth that's actually happening in something like Bitcoin. Why would I lend you the money you're giving me half? You should only be spending on things that you can afford through my taxes and you're debasing the currency. So you want to debase the currency tax the living shit out of me and not pay me in full when i lend you money fuck off and so that that therein lies the problem here comes this industry where like these guys traders want volatility traders want life there's natural entropy in the universe and central banks try and control it and suffocate it and here comes a totally independent market that has every, it feel, you feel alive being part of this industry. And so, yeah, that's why
Starting point is 00:14:29 I think banks and wall street wants to be in the business of, so they're like strike. They're in the business of financial services in the space. And then why would you want to own it is because it's in the direct reflection of all the problems. It's taking the other side of the fact that governments have borrowed so much from our future with no way to pay it back. Owning Bitcoin to me is saying, I don't know how you guys are going to solve this one, but it's not gonna be my time and energy. And that's a very popular vote. The fact that you can cast that from your phone by downloading an app like strike. I mean, who wouldn't do that? I agree. Uh, I don't agree that Bitcoin is going to go to a million dollars a cycle. So two 50 to a million. And, and the
Starting point is 00:15:08 reason that's a large Delta, but you're, that's why I'm laughing. Yeah. But people, it's like, how do you, how do you price predict a piece of paper that, you know, is being debased aggressively? Yeah. But I don't even think 250, I mean, barring some event that we don't see, I think one of the pieces that I keep coming back to, and I could be wrong on this, right? But I've been thinking about two different components as to like, the price will go up, right? Obviously, I'm excited about that. I'm incentivized for that to happen. But one, we have a new type of holder. Five years ago, you, me, and everybody else, like, we're idiots. We would just buy Bitcoin, hold it. Literally, there was nothing you could do to convince us to sell it. yeah wall street buys the etf they're even buying real bitcoin right by the etf if they put a one percent allocation and it doubles they're going to sell half because they're going to rebalance right like that's just their whole game is basically just like do this rebalance game also so like as the price increases again it's a variable we don't know how much sell pressure that is but it's a new type of sell pressure that previously wasn't there because bitcoin
Starting point is 00:16:10 has never rebalanced so you get like weird dynamics where like as you add in these people who are basically uh i'll say it lovingly like nerds sure and they have all these like portfolio theories and rebalancing and like all this stuff it's just not the like hardcore bitcoiner who buys holds and like that illiquid market every net new dollar has such upward movement i so i just think that that's over complicating something super simple when i say 250 to a million i'm effectively saying bitcoin's mispriced and so if someone who's an etf holder is going to constantly rebalance their portfolio, I still think it's mispriced. I think that that's going to be met with market demand. And that market demand is then going to say, hey, thanks for your ETF flow.
Starting point is 00:16:51 I'm going to take it into physical Bitcoins on my cold card at home. So I think that- Why is it mispriced? Like, how do you think about where it should be priced today? Against the debasement that's upcoming is what I think. So I think- So it's forward looking to the debasement. Correct. Yeah. So I think, you know, I don't think that Bitcoin's price as a reflection of the upcoming debasement is dependent on how some asset manager plans on rebalancing, right? It's the, you know, same as like, you know, if asset managers rebalanced Lamborghinis, then like they'd actually be worth 50 grand instead of 200 grand. No, they're worth 200 grand because people are
Starting point is 00:17:28 willing to pay 200 grand for them. So I think people will be willing to pay $250,000 for a Bitcoin based on the mess that I think, I mean, there's a massive hole and there's a loss that has to be realized. That loss is going to come through debasing the currency. Asset prices are going to go up. And what is the best asset and the most performant asset? What's the best money in human history? And so I think that has to be accurately priced. And it doesn't really matter what some guy on Wall Street thinks in regard to his own portfolio. It's his loss if he sells it. Now, let's take a step further, which you understand probably better than most in terms of the world of trading. What happens when you can short the ETFs? Will people step in? You
Starting point is 00:18:08 introduce derivatives you start to introduce these things that in markets historically it has dampened volatility because now people can go both directions um we don't even know will they get approved you know are they coming in the next six months or whatever right but like at some point you have to assume that we will see those uh vehicles i think people have now at least put in applications for like 2x you know levered long bitcoin i'm sure people will come you know the other way whatever does that play into also changing the price dynamics no i i think the more financial products the better because what we want is true price discovery the the problem like the idea that derivatives can suffocate bitcoin and manipulate the spot is demons that
Starting point is 00:18:50 people feel from gold gold naturally centralizes right like gold holders all don't have a cold card in their room with their physical gold on it they can't take a physical instrument like gold and put it in their brain like they can with Bitcoin. And so, I mean, the physical Bitcoin on exchanges right now is at an all time low, but the supply goes up every single day. And so that means that more Bitcoin is held with the individual. That's the logical conclusion. So the idea that Bitcoin would fall victim to concentration and manipulation through derivatives, I think is a fallacy. And it actually goes to Satoshi launching a bottoms up movement. Satoshi did not go to Goldman Sachs and say, I would like to list this thing publicly
Starting point is 00:19:31 and I'd like you guys to own 25% of it. He put it on a mailing list and he walked away. And for that reason, it'd be nearly impossible for someone to own a concentrated amount of this asset class, in my opinion. I mean, Saylor's on a war path and he's barely eclipsing 1%. Is anyone ever going to own 40, 50% of Bitcoin?
Starting point is 00:19:51 No. Do you think it's a problem that he owns 1%? No. I mean, it would be if it was Ethereum him with proof of stake, right? But no, his ownership over the physical Bitcoins has no influence over the consensus rules, the protocol, the monetary policy. That's the whole point. Saylor, Trump, I have the same influence over Bitcoin by running a node. And it's effectively no influence if I want to change it, but it's all the influence if I want to verify and be a part
Starting point is 00:20:20 of it in a self-sovereign way. So I don't, I don't, I think derivative products just enhance increase price discovery. What we want is accurate discovery, highly liquid markets for something that's as free and global as Bitcoin. So it's great. I mean, we should have a way more like robust options market in Bitcoin. I think all of these things are phenomenal, but no, don't take gold shortcomings and put them on Bitcoin. I mean, Bitcoin doesn't concentrate like gold does. That's a problem with, I mean, gold's a deadbeat commodity. It's not a competitor in my opinion. I do enjoy the gold bugs when it goes up like 5%, it's like $25 and they take a victory lap. It always cracks me up. Like new all-time high, like you made $25. Yeah. There's a reason the same thing that is in theory being manipulated by derivative markets and the CME and all these big exchanges shorting gold without having physical, that's the same thing that was concentrated enough for the US government to create fiat.
Starting point is 00:21:18 If gold was good enough, I wouldn't be born into the dollar system we are today. So, you know, part of my childhood being fucked up and being debased in constant American war is the fact that gold wasn't sufficient enough to solve the world's monetary problems. So don't give me a history lesson on gold. I mean, that's the reason Satoshi built a better one, you know? So I don't think that these are problems at all. And I think the fact that Larry Fink is a Bitcoiner and Jamie Dimon, whether he wants to admit it or not, is a Bitcoiner according to his revenues and growth and activity and reports.
Starting point is 00:21:54 That's a good thing for, you know, everything's good for Bitcoin, right? That's what I think wholeheartedly. Every single thing is good for Bitcoin. Is an Ethereum ETF good for Bitcoin? Sure. I mean, I think it's more funny than it is good. I think it's so funny that, i mean let's like walk through the game theory flywheel of uh we're rapidly debasing the currency that's causing inflation so we're going now 2020 covid we're debasing the currency we have rates zero that's causing inflation inflation causes us to rise rates faster than we've ever risen them before that causes bonds to fall that causes banks to become insolvent which causes the the market, Wall Street, banks, like where can we find some activity? Where can we find some life?
Starting point is 00:22:42 Which causes all of a sudden, and a fear for future debasement, which causes Bitcoin ETF approval, which causes them to have the most successful financial product they've ever had, which causes them to go, you know what, Gensler, you're not in charge anymore. I'm in charge. How many of these pieces of shit do they want ETFs for? We're accepting all of them. So all of a sudden you go diamond going from a Bitcoin skeptic to a cheerleader. And now you've got both political parties supporting Bitcoin. You've got Wall Street supporting Bitcoin. You've got Jamie Diamond's lip service, Bad Boy Diamond. He's supporting Bitcoin. And that's the game theory of what I think is something that's just so pure human. It's a free market. It's honest. It's
Starting point is 00:23:21 integral. And that is what, at the end of the day, you can try and fight natural human behavior all you want. We all land in the same place. We all land on hard money, integrity, ethics, morality, global love freedom those are all things bitcoin represents you can walk your little death spiral all the way come to daddy come to daddy so i think it's just funny i don't think it's good bad it's for my business it's a distraction i don't give a shit yeah but it's i think it's comical so when people always ask me am i a bitcoin maximalist i always tell them here we go i'm a bitcoin maximalist in the sense that monetary assets end in maximalism right so if live in the united states you're a dollar maximalist you get paid in dollars you save in
Starting point is 00:24:05 dollars you buy assets in dollars you pay your taxes in dollars etc um but you're not a maximalist in the sense of google facebook stock oil real estate whatever right um in crypto i do think that there's a lot of people that call themselves bitcoin maximalist and it's not just like i think bitcoin is the best money and will be the winner in the money it's and everything else will die with the what appears to be the etf approval for ethereum that's incoming here in a day or so um it feels like though that subset of bitcoin maximalists are going to have a hard time saying everything else is going to be a zero or everything else is the security etc i don't think we have enough information maybe you have a different opinion but i don't think enough
Starting point is 00:24:51 information to say what is actually going to happen there but like the game changed in the last week or so and so how do you think about like what is bitcoin maximalism today is it does it change to like hey bitcoin is the winner in money and like you said like everything else is just a distraction but not necessarily take a position on like is it going to have value in the future or not or like like how do you evaluate okay big question so allow me to take one quick step back like what is money money is the market good in the economy that you buy not to consume you buy to exchange later or to save so it's i take my time and energy i uh mow lawns i run a podcast i run companies i make burgers and i take that time and energy and i exchange it for money
Starting point is 00:25:37 and then i either save that money or exchange that money later that's very different than a market good in the economy that is a cheeseburger because i don't buy the cheeseburger to save it or to exchange it for something later i buy it to consume it okay money tends to concentrate a natural market wants one money, right? We don't want all of our time and energy being priced in various different goods and services. The point of a money is so that we can all understand and how to value our collective time and energy and price of goods and services that we have in the economy. So I think what a Bitcoin maximalist believes is that Bitcoin is the best money. It's the best tool and technology to solve that particular problem. Well, then what is Ethereum?
Starting point is 00:26:15 What is Solana? What is Dogecoin? I make the argument that they're technologies. ethereum very clearly made that point with the dow hack ethereum had developers get hacked they could have said the monetary policy is the monetary policy code is law all that shit that they were saying back in the day they didn't they changed it why did they do that they wanted to appeal to the developers to the growth to the computer decentralized computer for the world okay so a Technology is a market good in the economy that you consume. When I am using Facebook, I'm consuming Facebook. I'm not using Facebook as money, real estate, whatever you said, art, fine art. I'm consuming the art. It goes on my wall. So I just don't find them directly competitive
Starting point is 00:27:01 at all. And so I think a Bitcoin maximalist is saying, Bitcoin is money. It's the best money. We believe there should be one money. All these other things aren't money. Now, do I have a problem with technologies and securities? No. In fact, I'm the founder of Strike. I own a lot of a valuable security and we build technology. So of course I'm not against that. What I'm against or what bothers me is the intentional conflation. Ethereum was founded to be the better Bitcoin, and it often rides the coattails of Bitcoin, and it often conflates itself with Bitcoin's story. And a lot of these things, it's the faster Bitcoin, the nimbler Bitcoin, the lighter Bitcoin. I think that that's a losing strategy for Ethereum, even in a story standpoint. So it's confusing, which I think is upsetting to people in Bitcoin. But there's not very many products who are not the first mover and do not have technical superiority that end up actually surpassing the first mover or the thing with technical superiority.
Starting point is 00:27:56 So if you kind of think about like Uber and Lyft, right? Lyft, no matter how hard they try, it's just they're not going to pass Uber, right? Barring some external event or whatever. And so if I was like in charge of Ethereum marketing for the day, I think attaching to Bitcoin is actually guaranteeing loss. but that's what so what i i think where i don't think they think that i think they actually think tying themselves to bitcoin to some degree like ultrasound money all this stuff right well it's a winning strategy well but i so i i call these things an arbitrage on the trend so an arbitrage trade can the camera see this this is a spin drift uh sparkling water um an arbitrage trade would be the one in my left hand is a dollar the one in my right hand is ten dollars i can buy the one in my left all day at a buck sell on my right at 10 and i'm netting nine all day. That's an arbitrage. That's not a business. That's not a movement. That's not innovation.
Starting point is 00:28:48 That's a trade. I consider these things an arbitrage on the trend. What's the trend? You have an independent financial system that is a reflection of the problems in the financial system we have today. It's a new movement. It's freedom. It's global. It's all this stuff. And I'm finding a less legally accountable way to be like a central bank and arb that movement. I'm basically monetizing the fact that there's a lot of people that are exiting the financial system want something more fair and new don't totally understand what the fuck is going on and what's the difference between ethereum and bitcoin but it's it's it's it acts as a free market but it's not it has a founder it makes business-like decisions why did it go from proof of work to
Starting point is 00:29:28 proof of stake why did it uh fork and rewind transactions in the dow hack so i think something that has a founder that has direction that has outside influence it has a roadmap that makes politically driven decisions there's no problem with that but that's a company that's more like strike than it is Bitcoin. But I think they want to be thought of as a commodity and as a freer market because they get when Bitcoin goes up, Ethereum goes up, right? It's an index basket of this independent, different financial system. And that's the only real issue. And I mean, to be honest, I don't really give a shit about shit coins to be totally candid. It is what it is. I'm much more free market. I don't advocate for Gensler to do anything really. But that's
Starting point is 00:30:09 the problem. I think that if I were to speak on behalf of maximalism is, is, you know, there is this one thing that we think does a phenomenal job at money, which is the most important technology in human history. I mean, without money, we'd be bartering. Like, you know, you'd say you'd go to whole foods and say, Hey guys, I recorded a podcast today. I'll take two steaks. They'd be like, Oh the fuck I don't give, I don't value your podcast at all, but they value the money you got for the podcast. So it allows all of us humans to hyper-specialize and be amazing at little things and grow an economy to 8 billion people money's that important and we think we came across the best one ever which should allow us to enter one of the most flourishing chapters of human history
Starting point is 00:30:46 and then you have someone who creates something in their basement that's intentionally conflating it with the general public to take advantage of a momentous opportunity for our species and that's where it's like yo if you guys want to create technologies and print money and stuff i'd find it incredibly unethical but like get out of my way and and that's like the issue i have with these things um and i the one last point i'll say is that for the people that say well you know if they weren't worth anything uh then if they had no value they'd be worth zero right the fact that ethereum has value i i don't think that uh it necessarily has to be worth zero i think that um maybe the best argument for the bitcoin community to make is like bitcoin eth you know
Starting point is 00:31:31 kind of like pair continues to fall yeah and so it's like it's less about the aggregate dollar amount as much as it is like the trend and so far like i'm actually not very bullish on ethereum at all yeah it's fine but i would argue that the use case of building on top of all these technologies these applications like it it's easy to see that people are going to use this stuff whether we thought they should or not um and then you look at things like stable coins etc right and so really what i think i get at is like are the other use cases in crypto going to be bigger than the gold use case like the bitcoin use case and if you look to the traditional market facebook google amazon all these guys are way bigger than the gold market the promise of the digital version
Starting point is 00:32:19 of gold is more globally accessible right it's got you know all these components to it um and so if you strip away all the bullshit of like all these tribes arguing with each other it's like all right today bitcoin is i don't know trillion and a half or something total crypto market's like 2.6 2.7 trillion so bitcoin is the dominant more than 50 percent um 10 years from now not because they go launch literally 10 000 coins a day right but like is bitcoin able to grow big enough and outpace these other things or should we actually expect bitcoin will continue to grow and maybe it's worth 100 trillion in the future but these other things just by the nature of what they do will end up being bigger as a total market cap? Yeah. Well, I have two answers to that. One is gold is defective
Starting point is 00:33:04 money. It's money that isn't good at being money because we have dollars and pounds. If it was good at being money, it would remain money. So it's like a defunct, defective, not so great money that has a market cap of what, 12 trillion or whatever that number is. If you want to compare Bitcoin to money, what's the size of capital markets overall? So currency markets, markets valued in currency cash flows, real estate, gold, precious metals. I mean, that's like hundreds of trillions of dollars. That's where I think Bitcoin's on its way to. Comparing it to a defunct money that isn't that good at being money versus something that wants to be the king of money, I think is like a bad comparison. So I think Bitcoin has the biggest target audience. It has
Starting point is 00:33:48 the biggest opportunity set by a long mile the problem with saying something like ethereum is like facebook is facebook is valued based on its cash flow based on its business assets ethereum's valued based on this thing that is supposedly supposed to be a commodity but like changes all the time right like how how am i supposed to value it so if i like what what is what am i looking at Yeah. So I disagree with the Ethereum folks on this, but I was recently talking to somebody and they were like, oh, it has cashflow. So they're going to be able to model because they're going to look at the staking or transaction fees or whatever. And I actually do think that Wall Street is going to do that. That's not how I would evaluate it because I don't think it's
Starting point is 00:34:30 cashflow in the same sense. But I do think that in a weird way, these assets now are going to get like, you know, it's like the square trying to fit in the round hole, right? Is Wall Street's going to look at these assets. They're going to be like, okay, well, is it undervalued or overvalued? And I've always said to people like Bitcoin for, as an example, the transaction fees are a great way to look at what is the quote unquote cashflow of the system. If you just centralized Bitcoin and you could look at what are all the miners making, but that would be the revenue and it would be pretty impressive. Right. But I think so kind of, I think Bitcoin isn't a technology in the sense that it isn't optimizing for cash flows. Like everyone can be sitting on
Starting point is 00:35:10 their Bitcoin, holding it in their basement. It's a perfectly fine use for money. You don't have to spend your money. You can save your money and hodling Bitcoin's fine. Well, you can save your Bitcoin. Right. But you can't save your fiat. Of course not. But if, if Ethereum is a technology and Bitcoin is money and you want to have distributed technology, why do we need an actual monetary instrument in that system in the first place? Right. If it isn't a money, my point is if we want to distributed, I don't know, what's your favorite DeFi use case? They're fucking stupid. Distributed medical. Well, fine. Everyone runs their own medical note at home and will use Bitcoin as the money to talk between the distributed network, right? Why do I need?
Starting point is 00:35:50 The problem with shit coins is the first step they go, I changed the world. I created this new technology that advanced humanity. I go, really? Wow. What's the first step? Buy my shit coin. I was like, wait, hold on. The moment that you create your own money, you know what Satoshi did created it gave it away walked away you want to be like bitcoin invent it give it away walk away so so you want to be like a shit coin invent it sell it hoard it and continue to change the rules that benefit you okay so like let's go that's a huge problem though it's like one step down if ethereum was like you know what we're not going to have an actual ethereum token anymore we're going to have this defy infrastructure but bitcoin is digital money so we'll just use the
Starting point is 00:36:34 actual money that we have, then I'd say, fine. Now I would say the technology is dog shit. I'd rather use AWS. No, but I'm being serious. I'm not trying to make anyone laugh. It's like, think about it. AWS is faster, cheaper. Everything about it is better, right? So this is where you get into the arbitraging of the trend where they've kind of nestled themselves in into a less legally accountable way to print their own money. So it's like, I changed the world. Oh, really, man? How can I, how can my life benefit? Buy my shit coin. Like, well. so hold on but let's take let's go down that step further because i think what we started to see is there was a cat and mouse game between regulators and the people doing all these blockchains and
Starting point is 00:37:09 coins and stuff right so one of the things that i've seen people do recently is uh they create usually not even technology like a coin they quote quote fair launch it meaning they don't keep any for themselves they put it all out there anyone can go buy it they obviously buy some right um But they buy it on the free market at the price, whatever. And then they end up just being meme coins. They're not even building technology. They're not doing whatever. You could argue that it's the equivalent of sports gambling or whatever nonsense.
Starting point is 00:37:38 But this mechanism of, oh, the regulators actually looked at what you just said, too. And they're like, hey, wait a second. If you create a coin, you hold some for yourself. And then the price goes up because of shit you're doing. That sounds a lot like a security, right? Yeah. And they have a lot of questions there. um so the quote-unquote entrepreneur and i'll put that in quotes because you know if you just
Starting point is 00:37:57 launched the meme coin i don't know if you get to put on your linkedin you're an entrepreneur but um when they launch them they essentially are trying to accommodate for this regulation thing but they are changing the mechanisms and so what is the critique i guess of like that part of the industry where now it's not like i'm gonna enrich myself. It's almost like a, I'm going to create this game, which anyone who's rational looks at. And it's like, this is not a long-term sustainable game. Yeah. I mean, the critique is it's still like highly unethical. So let me think of a, the analogy that comes to mind is like fentanyl is that like, you know, people can do what they want, but if you're lacing someone's
Starting point is 00:38:43 drugs with something that's going to kill them, then I find that highly unethical and unfair, right? People do what they want. If we're in such a chapter where currency debasement is causing everyone to be a speculator, everyone's just starved for an opportunity to persist wealth and achieve a lifestyle that they actually want, that they're buying shit like GameStop and Dogecoin, that's unfortunate and i just find that like you know we have something like bitcoin and but you're like you know logging of robin hood and robin hood's laced with a bunch of fentanyl that's how i like to think about it and so then the question is well you know if fentanyl was that lethal no one would take it so free market right well people are lacing the like real medicine
Starting point is 00:39:31 with fucking fentanyl and murdering people and so that my my thing is like in that sense i just find it highly unethical is that someone's like, wow, I understand I can't save in dollars. Wow. I understand that there's an independent financial system and they log into an app that claims to serve that and they're getting laced with something lethal. So how long would the data have to persist where the shit coins outperformed Bitcoin, where you would change your mind? And I'll use a direct example so when microstrategy announced the bitcoin uh strategy um on that day bitcoin till today ethereum has outperformed so in one argument undeniably objectively microstrategy has done a fantastic job of creating shareholder value done all this stuff if you go back and you
Starting point is 00:40:23 look at it historically they would have billions of dollars more right or hundreds of millions dollars more whatever their exact numbers are uh on their balance sheet if they had bought ethereum instead of bitcoin now five or ten years from now if ethereum's worth zero then obviously that was a bad strategy and so i always go back to it as like i think that um the reason why the bitcoin community holds bitcoin and doesn't trade it 75 is illiquid all stuff it's because there's this deep conviction it's going to be around in 20 years 50 years 100 years right the other stuff i don't think actually people have that much conviction of 10 15 25 years yeah but it does introduced this very interesting dynamic of if you are making a five-year decision versus 50-year
Starting point is 00:41:05 decision, right? You may actually buy different assets. And I think Michael Saylor is unique in that he actually is thinking in 50-year timeframes, right? I don't think the average public company CEO thinks in 50-year timeframes. I think they think like 90-day timeframes. Well, they don't control their company like Saylor does. It's a very unique situation. But again, I think we're complicating a game of musical chairs. It's really thought simply if i have one user on my platform and i grow to two users that's 100 year over year growth if facebook goes from four billion users to four and a half billion users i'm outperforming facebook so according to like your logic like my company is more impressive than facebook it's kind
Starting point is 00:41:46 of like the law of large numbers but if sailor could sailor could have put right and again i'm not advocating he should have done this but i'm just saying if he had put whatever the first purchase like 500 million dollars in ethereum he could have done that right it's not like it was a five dollar you're extrapolating things that i don't think are as safe to extrapolate you know his shareholders have a lot of confidence in the strategy the confidence comes from bitcoin no one actually trust now people trust michael michael's also a good friend of mine so i'm i'm saying though he he joined a network of trust that had dependable trust over a decade yeah he leveraged people trust bitcoin that's where i go back to like i think bitcoin is the only thing in
Starting point is 00:42:27 the market where people like it's the way i think about it i'm going to give my bitcoin to my grandkids right i don't care literally no price is going to make me sell yeah right and it's this belief that 50 to 100 years from now bitcoin's still going to be around i don't think that there's a single other asset in the market where people believe 50 to 100 years from now totally it's just that humans it is unique for people to think long term we live in this short term optimized world. And so it's, it seems easy to see how people are going to go and buy all these other assets and try to outperform in the short term. Frankly, look, some people are good traders. Like they may actually outperform, right? The average person probably is not a good trader
Starting point is 00:43:02 and won't outperform. And so like, how do you start to think through where capital will flow in this industry? If let's say the top 10 coins all get ETFs, right? Like are these guys eating into the Bitcoin capital flow because people are saying, oh, I think Ethereum is going to go up more. I think Solana is going to go up more for six months or 12 months. I think it all ends. I don't think of it that I have such a low time preference. I think all roads lead to Bitcoin. I don't stress about like next quarter's capital inflows and what that's going to do to the BTC USD spot price. I just don't care. And I, I, I do question, you know, if I'm an asset manager that's deploying hundreds of millions of dollars on behalf of my clients? Am I really going to put
Starting point is 00:43:46 it into a Solana ETF? Because the other point about Saylor is if he would have done an Ethereum strategy, how much confidence would existing shareholders and future shareholders would have had in the future of the business? Because Ethereum, in my opinion, is a startup. It's very unclear. Are they going to change directions again? What do regulators think about them? What if Vitalik gets hit by a bus? I mean, these are real risks that something like Bitcoin doesn't have because it's a technology versus Bitcoin as a money. And so how much, I just think that fiat debasement is what's driving all of this stuff. This mic is going to be more expensive next year. My house is going to be more expensive next year. This hat is going to be more expensive
Starting point is 00:44:22 next year. So is Bitcoin. So is anything. And so it's not that impressive to me that they're going to see capital flows because everything's seeing capital flows. When there's an excess of fiat currency, everything sees capital. That's the definition of inflation. And so everything's going to inflate. I just don't value that story that much in the near term. And again, I can create Jack bucks right now. And I can say, I'll give you a million of them for a buck. And I print 10 billion of them. All of a sudden I have, I would do it to support you. Yeah. I'd have an egregious, egregiously high market cap. The growth in the last 24% would be insane. And we'd sit on a podcast and be like, what's Bitcoin going to do about that? It didn't, it sure did not perform
Starting point is 00:44:59 Jack bucks today. It's like, well, fuck Jack bucks. Like, what are we talking about here? were trying to like actually do productive good for society but i think so this is one thing that maybe i disagree with like the most hardcore bitcoiners on which is uh 50 more than 50 of all bitcoiners came into the market after 2020 right so like today if you look at i don't know how many you like any growing network yeah of course you're gonna get the compound and so like 50 of bitcoiners in the future are going to come from here on out okay right like type thing so um more and more users come in and the numbers will get bigger uh for you or i or anyone who bought bitcoin before 2020 even if you continue to dollar cost average or whatever like it has
Starting point is 00:45:40 appreciated a lot right and so a low cost basis up large um i think it's easier for that cohort of people kind of like 2009 to 2020 to stomach oh if bitcoin goes from 100 compound annual growth rate down to 30 or 40 if i get like you know it's already appreciated so much like it's compounding on a larger number not that big of a deal but if you're the average american and you come in and for example last year the uh qqq nasdaq was up 50 yeah it's not gonna do that every year right but like now all of a sudden if you're like oh this asset compounds at 30 there's other assets that go up 50 it changes the like capital allocation i think and part of what uh where i think that it is important is bitcoiners are almost backing themselves into this bet on like
Starting point is 00:46:30 a binary hyper bitcoinization or not because in my mind um through the different cycles we've seen volatility dampen we've seen price appreciation right on a percentage basis go down and so if that continues at some point the like the greatest meme in the world was number go up still is yeah right um you play the human emotion and all stuff if number go up becomes stock market returns right in an extreme example are people excited about that i don't know like maybe they actually understand it's not just about the number and it is bitcoin and kind of the decentralization and all this but like how many people bought bitcoin initially because they just thought the number was going to skyrocket right it's kind of like the price is the marketing campaign people
Starting point is 00:47:16 come in, they learn about Bitcoin, they stick around afterwards. Well, so again, let's go back to what is money is I, I live life. I expend energy into the universe. I spend time here and I want to be able to capture that because I want other goods and services like food and housing and family, or I want to be able to take the time I've spent on this world and save it through time because I might want stuff later. Okay. So I think what Bitcoiners, Bitcoiners think of Bitcoin as money. So, well, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin over this certain, if you look at the chart this way. Okay. Yeah. But Solana outperformed Ethereum. Okay. Yeah. But that shit coin outperformed that. Okay. What about QQQ that year? Well, if I stand on my hands and I'm a little dizzy and I've had a
Starting point is 00:47:59 beer, well then maybe I think my name's Rob. It's like, well, what are we doing? You've turned yourself into a gambler. I don't want to take my time and energy and gamble it. That's, so the whole point of Bitcoin is removing money as a speculative idea. I don't need to go to work every day and then speculate. I don't need to be an expert in Japanese central bank monetary policy in order to persist my wealth, grow a family, inevitably own a home. So I think a Bitcoiner's position is this is money, good money that I can put under the mattress and it'll be worth more tomorrow than it is today because it's hard. It cannot be debased. And all of our contributions to the economy and to the world are going to produce goods and services that actually decline
Starting point is 00:48:42 in price against this hard asset. And that's the point. So it's a savings technology. Yeah. Well, that's what we're talking about right now because you're comparing it to the last four years of ETH returns, right? It's the equivalent of like, well, you know, Steph Curry, you know, he's so good. Well, what about this G League player? He scored 60 points that one night. But here's the other thing is I think that Bitcoiners, they discount what happens in the traditional market. So, for example, I'd argue the S&P is actually the savings technology of like Wall Street. It's become the savings technology. They're treating it that way.
Starting point is 00:49:20 There's a monetary premium that's now being assigned to it where people are basically saying like, okay, the dollar is going to be debased. What is the thing that I have the highest confidence and that's going to be around in 20 years and it's going to go up every year at some rate? S&P, right? Or name whatever index, but let's use S&P. um, six to 8%, seven to 9%, whatever the number is like to them, like to the boomers, that's awesome. Right. Just set it, forget it. Dollar cost average, et cetera. What I actually think is interesting about Bitcoin is when people ask me like, what's the rate of return I needed to drive? It's like, well, you got to be Bitcoin for me to not want to buy a hundred percent.
Starting point is 00:49:53 It's the cost of capital. Yeah. And so like, it is the S and P I think for a whole generation of people is now like Bitcoin has become the thing. It's going to become the S and P for boomers too. I mean, inflation can't be measured as one basket metric. Inflation is measured on a per service or good instance. So 7% or 8% isn't making you progress towards owning a home. If the dream US home is inflating at 20% year over year, unless you're getting a 20% raise every single year, or your S&P is appreciating 20% every single year, you're not making progress, you're walking backwards. And so when I look at a Bitcoin chart, so let's say Bitcoin's up 160% year over year. Everyone's like, that's such a massive number. To me, that's not massive at all
Starting point is 00:50:36 because what is it? It's one, a reflection of the debasement of the currency. So it's outperforming the actual dollar. And then it's also a reflection of all the innovation and progress that humanity is making, right? Why was gold 2% inflation? Okay. 2% inflation on net is dog shit. It has a 30 year half-life. In 30 years, half my wealth is gone at 2% inflation. The average American lives 75 years, well over half my money's gone with 2% inflation, which is gold, the gold standard, right? Why was that okay? It's because all of us humans were producing more growth than 2% every single year. So when something goes up 160%, the way I look at Bitcoin is not only is it protecting me against the debasement of fiat, but it's allowing me to capture all the innovation and amazing things
Starting point is 00:51:20 that humans are creating. And so 7%, we're like innovating on AI, bro. 7%, you're not giving me any returns at all. 160% means I'm living in the year 2024. There are computers that are solving insane problems. I'm able to fly from Chicago to New York to hang out with you. And the fact that central banks have never had a bigger problem. That's what 160% tells me. So I think that slowly but surely people will realize that. The last thing I'll say on this is that people aren't stupid, right? Is that you see another guy get 160% and you get seven, you're like, oh man, wasn't my year, but 15 years in a row, people aren't dumb. And, you know, if you do think of money as abstracted time and energy and not like, well, you know, I don't care about money. I'm
Starting point is 00:52:08 altruistic. I'm going to donate it all anyway. Yeah. But think about a time and energy, you know, the guy that owns the better money gets more time with their family, gets more housing, gets more space, gets more opportunity. And that's things that we all can't give a fuck how altruistic you are. That's, that's life. That's human. That's family. That's relationships. That's love. That's hope right and so if i get more of that because i own a better instrument than you you know get your smp i i think it's just only a matter of time before the law of capitalism the law of being human and logical is like well i should probably own that one one of the uh things i think bitcoin should talk about more that they don't is uh gold is actually down in purchasing power terms over
Starting point is 00:52:50 the last five years yeah right and so it is up in nominal terms but just given the inflation like even gold hasn't kept up whereas bitcoin obviously has outperformed um so i think that it goes back to uh there's this like religious kind of like people want to call it cold i think it's just more of like a religious view on it it's actually incredibly valuable if you look at bitcoin from a like non-economic standpoint because the price doesn't matter then you're like i'm buying it dollar cost averaging i'm never going to sell it like there's nothing better than like true unfiltered conviction in an asset, that's 80 vol, right? Like if you just know I'm not selling it, great. You can think of all the great stocks, all this stuff over time, like there's very few people
Starting point is 00:53:33 who held them and it was usually people with very deep conviction. So there is benefits to it. But I do think also when people talk about it, they almost are using that as the, they lead with that. But now that Wall Street's showing up, I actually think that we're going to have to convince them of more of the economic arguments than just like, Hey, just buy it, hold it. It's going to be, you know, be around in 20 years. Um, because that's the language they speak. Sure. Right. And, uh, they're going to go back to like the water cooler and they're going to like, Hey, did you DCF it? Right. Right. And you're just like, uh, not the way to think about it, but they're going to do it anyways. Yeah. But that's the, again, like pure humanity is amazing.
Starting point is 00:54:13 Like everyone shows up at the water cooler and gives their opinion about a tool. Well, this guy thinks it's for drugs. This guy thinks it's for savings. This guy thinks it's for cross border payments. This guy thinks it's for wrapping his ETF instruments in. And it's like, wow, that's all of us being unique and special and contributing to the world in our own way. That's a free market, a permissionless system, an open network that we all can participate and collaborate within trustlessly. That's fucking awesome. Right? Like my, how I look at Bitcoin is different. How Larry looks at Bitcoin. Fink, that's beautiful. I think no one is there to tell us that one of us isn't following the rules. Does it water down Larry Fink's message if, you know, when he came out
Starting point is 00:54:54 at Bitcoin, I mean, I think I went on television and I was like, he's the CMO of Bitcoin right now. This is awesome. Larry Fink talking about Bitcoin. And at one point people were buying Bitcoin. It was going up and he was like, it's a flight to quality. Yeah. I mean, it's not a better guy to say something like that. Right. And kind of Bitcoin story. If he then shows up with like the second one. I almost feel like in one way, it's like if somebody shows up and they got a really nice watch and they're just selling you this one thing, this is the greatest watch in the world. We're like, cool. But then if all of a sudden somebody shows up and they're like, let me open my trench coat and I got 20 watches, you're kind of like, is it the same thing?
Starting point is 00:55:27 So how does the narrative change? Because if there's an ETF that's approved, we got to assume that the same organizations that were just out pimping Bitcoin, they're going to do the same thing with these other assets. That's his problem to solve, not mine. I mean, I don't have that problem, right? I only sell Bitcoin on my platform. And my approach is if you want a high quality Bitcoin experience and customer support that'll pick up the phone and experts that build the best technology in the world, then that's what I sell. I don't sell Ethereum. So I don't know how he's going to manage to sell a thousand different shit coins. And I do think though, like if I were to forward project, how does this cycle end? Because by the way, I'm not saying we're going into
Starting point is 00:56:09 hyper-economization. I do think this cycle will end. We'll have some crash. I mean, there's a hangover to all the debasement that has to happen. I mean, that's, you're getting drunk. Everyone's rich, everything's up. Right. And so where would I think it turns around? Well, all of a sudden, when some shit coin gets rugged and Larry Fink has a basket in it, then all of these people are going to go to their local politicians and say, Hey, I bought a black rock instrument. Those things can't rug me. You shouldn't have let me invest in that. I'm safe. Right. And people are going to get rugged. Larry thinks he can get shit on. But between now and then, he's going to create a carnival bonanza of like the dollars being debased here, run into this fucking arcade bar
Starting point is 00:56:48 and get drunk and buy stupid shit. I don't know. I wonder how Larry's going to pitch that. I have no idea. Because again, it's like Ethereum's the world computer. If I were a traditional investor, I'd say, interesting. Why is that better than AWS? What's the cash flow? And you say, no, no, no, know stupid you just buy the coin he's gonna be like what why how what based on what value like what's going on so again i who knows um but what i do know is that they're making a lot of money and banks are starved for business for revenue for activity they're not again like the the bond the problem with the bond market is not that they're getting paid out five and a half percent it's the fact that they're not actively lending and loaning, right?
Starting point is 00:57:36 So they want revenue, they want action, they want flow. These bankers want big bonuses at the end of the year, right? So like these instruments that have real life in them, which are these crypto ETFs, they're going to want, they're going to list like doggy coins as long as they think that there's going to be inflows for them. I mean, it definitely will be inflows whether we think that there should be or not, right?
Starting point is 00:57:59 Yeah, like it's like one of the secrets of finance is there's more degens on wall street than in crypto yeah i mean and we're like crypto couldn't dream up yeah but a mortgage crisis i dude i think they couldn't there's no way that they could pull that off but i think here's the thing i think we're all speculators in nature so what floor are we on are you are you in a doctor we're on the 47th floor for is that is that real okay so the 47th floor. So I had, I had a decision to make between taking the stairs or taking the elevator and I would gambled. I took the elevator. It's a man-made machine that could have not gone well and put me in danger. It probably would have been safer to take the stairs. The stairs would
Starting point is 00:58:42 have taken more time and energy from me. So I optimized for time and energy and I took the elevator, but that was an in real time speculative gamble that I made. So I think all of us humans are speculative gamblers. One of the things that makes life what it is, is that the future is permanently unknown. Okay. So all of us are speculative gamblers. So don't ever let anyone sell you that wall street isn't a speculative gambler or that this guy's not everyone in nature is the future is permanently uncertain. That's just a fact. The problem is we don't want our money to be that way. Our money is the market good in the economy. That's not supposed to be that. That's why gold was money is because it was the most certain thing we can find.
Starting point is 00:59:24 And so the problem, everyone, of course, everyone's a gambler. Everyone's a speculator. Everyone's going to want to go into the casino and put it all on red. But the problem with society is we shouldn't be forced to speculate on our time and our energy. That's the issue. So like we need to reverse course there. Like the money should be pure, sound, hard, and real. And then humans speculate on the future innately, naturally. Like after this, I'm going to eat some food from some restaurant and I'm speculating and I have some risk-based approach in my brain of like, if they spit in it, right? Like maybe I think the odds are low. Maybe I think the odds are high because I saw something, right? Like constantly speculating. So anyway, no one's more ethical
Starting point is 01:00:02 and pure, like fuck Wall Street guys. Like they're just as much a speculator as the guys that are on Robinhood. We all are. But that shouldn't be the money we use. We shouldn't be forced to speculate. We should be able to save money. How is Strike helping people buy Bitcoin? I think we're just better at providing Bitcoin financial services than everyone else. Why? It's a higher quality service. Our technology is better. We are licensed, regulated in all the major markets in the world. Our customer support, call us, we'll answer the phone, handhold you through it. I mean, when we were founded, it was along a lightning network thesis,
Starting point is 01:00:42 but we kind of grew into a lifestyle brand for Bitcoin with high quality financial services for everything you need. I mean, our biggest business line by far is selling Bitcoin. And it's because we have, for example, free on-chain Bitcoin withdrawals. We have lightning network support, our technologies faster, quicker, stronger, better. We have better customer support. We're more available and more accessible and more currencies. And I think also people resonate with our mission and our brand. And so in a business, I think if you compare us to someone like Coinbase, I don't think Brian would necessarily take offense to me saying we're better at Bitcoin than you guys because they don't focus on Bitcoin. They don't care as much about
Starting point is 01:01:26 Bitcoin. They don't have free on-chain withdrawals that uses fancy batching technology and fee estimation technology because they build base instead. And so we see a world where there's an industry of folks that are going to continue to focus on crypto. And when we focus on Bitcoin, like those products and services and the quality for the customer begins to delineate. And we've seen like the growth we've seen and where we like lay our head at night is the fact that we're just pound for pound, one of the best in the world at Bitcoin. And that's turned into a phenomenal business the best yeah not one of i mean i don't like speaking in definitive so i like when it when it comes to talking about shit coins i'll be aggressive but like as the ceo
Starting point is 01:02:10 of strike you know like and you're a shareholder right like the future of the business is being uh one of the best in the world in the next year decade century and that's going to be an incredible business and so we never never too high never too low uh as a startup you know you know what I'm talking about. So we keep an even head and we just try and do well by customers. What do you think about Trump and Biden now all like trying to position themselves to embrace all this stuff? It's awesome. I mean, boy, did we go quick from they're going to ban it to they support it and endorse it. I think one of my favorite takeaways is the fact that it is a grounds up movement. They're not doing this necessarily for donations, although they seem
Starting point is 01:02:54 to be getting donations, they're doing it because they want votes. That means that it's empowered and supported by the people, right? You want donations, you go to a Bloomberg cocktail hour and you say, okay, like I'll take your $20 million. What do you want me to advocate for? If you want the collective populace, the open public to vote for you, I mean, the fact that it's a voter issue means that it's power to the people, which was the intention of the technology. It's a grounds up movement. That's the coolest thing for me is Biden all of a sudden went from fuck your industry to, oh shit, Trump's supporting it. And he seems to be getting a lot of momentum from his support. Okay, fine. I support it too. That means that voters care. That means
Starting point is 01:03:33 a lot of individuals subscribe to this idea. That's my biggest takeaway is, you know, politicians are going to be politicians. They're all going to make promises that they probably can't keep. But the fact that they recognize that the power's in the individual's hands with this one, I mean, Satoshi would be proud of that for sure, is that he gave us a lot of leverage, right we're able to move election years by running nodes and owning our assets in this bitcoin thing that's individual power that i don't know we've had in quite some i mean what other election topic i mean this is real power the individual has say no you're going to support us motherfucker that's just so cool i think that um the national politics and i've
Starting point is 01:04:18 about this before but like at the city and state level we had you know texas florida new york they were arguing over who's gonna take more of their paycheck or who's you know bitcoin capital whatever um now the national political level is a whole different ball game right and um it's in the face of some pretty well-known politicians who were saying i don't want this and people broke from them um and so to have the two major candidates basically coming out now and being being like we like it yeah pretty hard to say it's going to get banned um but the more interesting part to me is like what i call the domino effect you know all the other countries that not even the ones who banned it just like the ones who were kind of like i don't really we don't have
Starting point is 01:04:56 an opinion kind of what the u.s was doing like we're kind of abrasive but like we're not we're gonna like clamp down on it whatever um they probably got to embrace it now for sure like if you're not gonna let the u.s do stuff well and you not follow yeah well the way i think about it is maybe slightly different. It's that you don't want to be the guy that's on the wrong side of it at this point. Because now I think that the US was going to have an issue if ETFs got approved, all of a sudden this thing goes to trillions of dollars in market cap, maybe $10 trillion in market cap in this cycle. And you're going to get civil unrest of people saying, hey, inflation, debasement of the currency, this Bitcoin thing seems to be the escape hatch.
Starting point is 01:05:38 what the hell is going on? Now, Trump, Biden, they can say, I acknowledge it. I support it. It's technology. It's innovation. It's the fact that we have it here in America. People are mining. So I think that's also a very slight pivot that they now can err on the side of if this thing does blow, that they acknowledged it and they weren't on the wrong side. So I think what you'll start to see is politicians just positioning themselves to make sure they're not on the wrong side and like i think it's great thing about el salvador all of a sudden naive is a forward thinking genius right when it comes to bitcoin uh so i think it has extrapolating effects when it comes to geopolitical relationships and stuff but what i think we'll continue to see is what
Starting point is 01:06:18 you don't want to be is the politician or the president that opposes it because if it does go to 250 000 a coin and trump supported everyone supported and you didn't i mean you're gonna get ousted right um yeah it's like the momentum now uh the only way you get hurt you don't get hurt by supporting get hurt by not supporting it correct that's the game theory it used to be the opposite the is that by supporting it you could get hurt but if you just stayed with the pack yeah but the consensus has now switched the game theory of bitcoin has always been you're better on its team than not you're better an ally than an enemy and so you're seeing that now play out with presidents the most powerful in the united states of america but that's the game
Starting point is 01:06:57 theory is you don't have to like i don't own dollars i only own bitcoin i founded a bitcoin business right i'm so long bitcoin no one's more long than i am but you don't have to be that but you better not stand in its way and it is like acid in that way where everything it touches it just seeps through and dominates and eviscerates and you just don't want to stand against that thing and so yeah it it seeped its way into an election cycle and everyone you know what bitcoin was like hands where i can see him you on our team or do i have to put a bullet through your chest and everyone said no no no no no we support we're gonna accept donations all the regulatory changes so but we've seen it time and time and time and time and time again right i'm
Starting point is 01:07:44 on team bitcoin and team strike oh boy those are good teams where can we send people to find you end team strike oh uh jack is my real name so i'm not a i'm not a nim so uh i'm i'm not anonymous i'm not i'm sure you interview a bunch of guys that are like you know crypto eggnog is like well how do i actually find you jack mallers is how you find me so i'm jack mallers on twitter everywhere else and uh we're strike.me you can download the app we probably sell bitcoin for some of the cheapest fees in the world. So try us. All right. Next time. Next time. Appreciate you brother.

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