The Pomp Podcast - #1386 Phil Rosen & Anthony Pompliano | Donald Trump SHOCKS The Bitcoin World

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's up, guys? Bang, bang. Today, I've got Phil Rosen here, and we talk about President Donald Trump at the Bitcoin conference, his rousing speech, what he plans to do,

Starting point is 00:00:40 why he's making so many campaign promises, and what you need to know about his future plans, including why did President Trump over the weekend say Bitcoin is going to the moon? That's a direct quote coming from the 45th president of the United States. On top of that, we also talk about the track record of the stock market under various presidents and why maybe the stock market doesn't actually matter nearly as much as you think it is when you're in the ballot box. This conversation covers a lot of ground. Phil and I have a lot of fun and we share tons of insights. So I hope you enjoy it. Here's my conversation with Phil Rosen. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions

Starting point is 00:01:19 and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Today's episode is brought to you by iTrust Capital.

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Starting point is 00:05:33 Can you tell us which ones stood out to you and whether or not you take them seriously? Well, I think first, anytime a presidential candidate starts to talk about campaign promises, you have to remember they are promises. And unfortunately, regardless of the political candidate, you don't know whether those promises will become action until after they're in office. and so uh evaluating promises is exactly that their promises and their words um but he did say pretty much almost every single thing that bitcoiners wanted him to say he said that we were going to become the uh bitcoin superpower of the world i think he said that the united

Starting point is 00:06:06 states was going to be the crypto capital of the world um he even worked in a line bitcoin is going to the moon. He said that the Bitcoin people were high IQ. He said that people in the room were under fire from the current regulatory regime, that he was going to fire Gary Gensler on day one. He also talked about the fact he thought that the taxation and the treatment of the asset should be changed to make it much more attractive for people to hold and transact. And then the big one was he said that he wanted to create a strategic stockpile of Bitcoin. And the way that he talked about it was, well, the government currently has about 210,000 Bitcoin in its possession. They plan to sell it. Let's not sell it. Why don't we just go move that away from kind of the law enforcement agencies and move that on to kind of the balance sheet of the government? And I think that, you know, Bitcoiners, obviously, you have the leading presidential candidate in the room.

Starting point is 00:07:09 His mere presence gets their attention. And then he goes on a, you know, I don't know, hour long speech talking about all the things that they care about. Of course, it's going to be well received. Right. And I don't think that, frankly, he didn't have anything that he said where Bitcoiners attacked him. And if you think of the Bitcoin community, they are excellent critics. And so for them to walk out of that speech and be like, that was pretty good, is like

Starting point is 00:07:39 a grand slam for any other industry. So something that he specified was the Bitcoin stockpile rather than reserve. what is your stance on what what do you think he meant by that word distinction so nobody knows for sure um and this could be semantics but what i took away from it was something a little bit different so uh robert f kennedy jr spoke the day before um on friday at the bitcoin conference and he explicitly said not only did he want to hold on to the bitcoin that the u.s government already has he wants the u.s government to buy 4 million bitcoin over the next 20 years He thinks that we can do that by buying 550 Bitcoin per day.

Starting point is 00:08:22 I think that's insane. Like, you know, he's got a lot of good ideas. I don't think this is one of them. I like the idea of buying Bitcoin for the U.S. government, but 4 million is almost mathematically impossible. Now, he specifically used the language strategic reserve and reserve means we go get the Bitcoin, put it into the Federal Reserve or the Treasury. And it's essentially backing the U.S. dollars, part of the dollar reserve. We have some gold. We've got other things. But we put Bitcoin in there. And so that was kind of what I took away from RFK. Now, after Trump spoke, Senator Cynthia Lummis came up on stage and she had a piece of paper with words on it that she said was a bill that she is going to introduce for the United States to create a strategic reserve of one million Bitcoin. She called it the Louisiana purchase moment for this generation.

Starting point is 00:09:15 And for those that don't know the Louisiana purchase, the United States invested $15 million in the early 1800s, bought 530 million acres from France, France losing into that trade. And the United States obviously was very prescient in doing so. Lummis' point was, why don't we go buy this Bitcoin? And if we buy a million Bitcoin, not a million dollars, but a million Bitcoin and hold it for a minimum of 20 years, then the price of Bitcoin should continue to appreciate and that should allow us some sort of relief

Starting point is 00:09:47 to help pay off the debt. Now, she also called it a strategic reserve and made it sound much more like she wanted to back the US dollar. Now, what's interesting about Trump saying the word stockpile was it was coupled not just with the use of the word stockpile, he also never talked about buying more Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:10:05 So he simply said, you know what, I think that we should just keep the Bitcoin that we have and he stopped there. Now, there's some game theory at play here is if you lead the US government, you want to go buy Bitcoin, you probably don't want to go tell the world you're going to buy the Bitcoin before you buy it. Instead, you want to go buy the Bitcoin and then tell everyone, hey, we bought Bitcoin because then there's going to be FOMO, price is going to go up, all that kind of stuff. So you don't know how much of it is like gamesmanship versus he actually doesn't have a desire there. And then the word stockpile to me was almost kind of like the

Starting point is 00:10:33 government's just going to have this thing over here, but it's not actually backing the US dollar. we're not going to put in the US dollar reserves. And so again, is it semantics? Because kind of like all government assets kind of sort of back the dollars, the full faith and credit of the US government, et cetera, is a little unclear, but it would have been so easy to just use the word reserve. Stockpile seems like such an intentional word to use when nobody else was using that word that I do think it is worth watching if nothing else. Because if you don't back the dollar with the Bitcoin you're buying, do you think the dollar is not going to be valuable? I don't think that's Trump's position. That wouldn't be aligned with what he said

Starting point is 00:11:14 previously. But he does ask a lot of questions about what are his thoughts about this asset. So my thought was, why would Trump or any presidential candidate be coming out to back an asset that a lot of Bitcoin investors buy because they think that the dollar is going to lose its value over time. What is your take on why you think a candidate is coming out so bullishly on it? I mean, the short, simple answer is like they're pandering for votes, right? Would be one potential explanation. And there's probably a hint of that in all of them, no matter how sincere they are, is they know by saying it now before an election is likely to convince people to go vote for them. And it's a big voter block. It's a very passionate voter

Starting point is 00:11:54 block. They got a lot of money, all that kind of stuff. Now, if you get into more of like the nitty gritty of like the economics of it. I think historically, people thought that the dollar and Bitcoin were going to compete with each other. And it was just, hey, they're both currencies, you know, one's gonna win, one's gonna lose. Well, instead, we have seen is actually that as Bitcoin has strengthened, the US dollar has strengthened as well. And really, the losers in this kind of currency battle in this digital age has been the weak fiat currencies. So it's the non US dollar fiat currencies that have been the ones that have been falling at the feet of the dollar and at Bitcoin. And so what I think we are starting to see, and again, it's always

Starting point is 00:12:32 hard to kind of predict the future, but it seems like people want to buy Bitcoin and hold it, and they want to use dollars for transactions. And so you can see with like stable coins, as an example, you now have a digital store of value and you have a digital medium of exchange. The digital medium of exchange in US dollar stable coins has more transaction volume than Bitcoin. And so in the digital realm, you are getting people using the dollar more, but they're holding More than 50% of all Bitcoin in circulation hasn't moved in two years. And so they're more long-term holders, store of value, et cetera. And so I think that Trump, who is obviously very pro-US dollar, has not only tweeted,

Starting point is 00:13:09 but also campaigned on the idea of the US dollar and the global reserve currency and the attributes of that. He is starting to realize, wait a second, this Bitcoin thing is separate and distinct from the US dollar. And the dollar is going to have to be debased regardless of what we do with this Bitcoin thing. So maybe actually the Bitcoin thing could benefit from a devaluing dollar, but it is not necessarily competing or trying to kill the dollar. And so I can kind of hold these two ideas in my head at the same time without them actually kind of eliminating each other and me having to choose one or the other. What did you think? well i think uh i do think it's very unusual that you have such a prominent government figure

Starting point is 00:13:48 period coming out for a non-dollar asset that was my immediate reaction to the whole speech and also his months-long campaign for bitcoin i think it's a lot of pandering um and i i don't know if there's long-term promise because bitcoin seems very it's anti-regulation it's anti-government um and that so that was the next component i wanted to ask you about trump says he wants to make the u.s the uh the capital of crypto or capital bitcoin whatever you want to call it um is that even possible to have a centralized capital for crypto because that also seems antithetical to the values of cryptocurrency um so that's part one but part two would any other president besides trump be able to fulfill any of these promises yeah um so i'm like having

Starting point is 00:14:40 a capital i again we don't know for sure but what i took away from it was just hey i want this to be the center i want this to have a a great intensity of you know um mining activity and holders and all that and really maybe even the broader point was like i want to encourage this versus discourage this, right? Whereas the current administration by many people's kind of evaluation is discouraging rather than encouraging. And so he's trying to, you know, kind of put himself on the other side of the table and say, hey, you have a choice, right? Do you want somebody behind you? Or do you want somebody kind of, you know, on the other side of the table against you in these candidates? And so the United States, you know, I do think that it would be a problem if the United States

Starting point is 00:15:22 all of a sudden owned, you know, 10 million Bitcoin. Again, that doesn't mean that they could change anything about the actual system itself, but I do think that it would change kind of the way people looked at it. Right. And so that's one component to about 35%, 30, 35% of all mining is in the United States. Now it used to be 65% in China. A lot of it moved to the U S and that's how kind of the U S got such a large kind of percentage, about 10% of all mining is in Texas alone. So when you think of those numbers, those are pretty big numbers, still not majority right um but i do think the whole idea of like a peer-to-peer network of a decentralized network is you want to have some diversification geography wise holder base wise companies

Starting point is 00:16:09 miners all the more that you get decentralization the more that you kind of fulfill the promise of bitcoin um and so i think it would be very hard for the united states to get again you know more than a million bitcoin or something like that um and maybe it's just like by the country showing up so late that like, regardless of what their like instinct is to do something nefarious or controlling, it's just too late now. And so they kind of have to get in line and just be one of many participants in the network, which would be pretty cool that like kind of the people beat them to it and were able to create enough decentralization that even governments couldn't kind of, you know, supersede what the people had already done. Yeah, I think the government

Starting point is 00:16:53 regulation component is pretty interesting here um especially since i don't think they will be able to participate as at biggest scale as uh maybe trump once um and some so something he said uh he said it twice because he got such a good reaction was that he wanted to fire gary gensler who is historically anti-crypto he's the chairman of the sec um but a lot of the chatter online was that he couldn't actually do that as uh president i'm not sure if he has the power to fire the chairman of the sec and i think gensler's term expires in 2026 um what did you how did you view that when uh when trump said it twice one of the things about uh president trump's delivery style is it's much more obvious what was written by somebody else versus what he wrote or you know

Starting point is 00:17:44 what his thoughts are um i think that's true of all politicians i just think they're usually Their delivery style is much more polished in a way that, you know, kind of it's harder to tell what they really think and, you know, how much of it is the speechwriter versus them. With Trump, like he literally reads a speech, goes off, you know, a tangent, and you can kind of tell the difference between when he's reading versus when he's talking. Somebody obviously wrote in the speech that this was a point that he was going to do. When he got the crowd reaction, then you could tell that Trump was like, that's a great idea. Like they love this. And that was where the showmanship and everything came into it. And so the reason why I think that that's important is, you know, we just watched what is now coming out. And again, it's always hard to tell kind of exact details, but it is now coming out that there was a conversation between Barack Obama, former president and current President Joe Biden, where Barack Obama basically communicated, hey, look, the Democratic Party is ready to invoke the 25th Amendment. And so if you think of that on like the most basic case, essentially somebody or a group of people was able to remove the president from the race. Now, again, it's kind of convoluted.

Starting point is 00:18:56 There's still information coming out, et cetera. But if you can remove the president from the race, the SEC chairman, the CFTC chairman, the FDIC, just name your organization. It could definitely be done. It may not be able to be done via executive order. It may not be able to be done, you know, in terms of like, hey, you report to me like on day one, you know, the classic Trump apprentice, like you're fired, but pressure campaigns, all that kind of stuff. I definitely think it could happen.

Starting point is 00:19:23 One of the things, though, that I think is important to call out is, you know, Gary Gensler did get the Bitcoin ETF approved. He did allow the ETH ETF to be approved. And so maybe he did it kicking and screaming. I'm not sure. I've never talked to him. I'm not privy to the conversations internally. um but in an abrasive regime there was still quite a bit of progress and so if you do get a new

Starting point is 00:19:49 regulatory kind of leader it doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to be better right now you'd hope so and if you have a pro bitcoin or pro crypto candidate you know kind of helping to guide that process you would think that you know that's something they would optimize for but it's kind of like just be careful what you always wish for right and it's the same thing with the regulatory clarity people like i want regulatory clarity and then they get the clarity like, no, no, no, but I disagree. Like, well, did you want clarity or did you want your answer? And what they really wanted was their answer, not just the clarity. And so I think that this stuff is very, very complex. And as much as people like to yell and scream, there has been quite a

Starting point is 00:20:24 bit of progress. And so in a weird way, should I pose the question, has Gary Gensler actually done more for the Bitcoin and crypto community than any other SEC chairman or commissioner before him he's probably done more than trump has for crypto but just sec in general right there's been multiple sec chairmen since bitcoin's been around gary ginsler is the one who approved the bitcoin etf right and so in a weird way as although everyone is yelling and screaming at him he is the one who got it approved and people would look at who's pressured and you know kind of all these other details but if you look at kind of results gary ginsler on a results basis in terms of ETFs as a measurement

Starting point is 00:21:04 has been the most friendly SEC chairman to Bitcoin and Ether, which like blows your mind, right? Because you're like, wait a minute, it's been the abrasive environment the entire time and people are upset about it. So I do think that kind of narratives and results are very convoluted.

Starting point is 00:21:23 People kind of confuse the two. And if this is the progress we make in an environment that people are unhappy, the promise maybe is like, imagine what could happen if we were in an environment that people would be really excited about. Where does Bitcoin go under Trump versus under someone else? I don't think it matters, which may sound a little weird. But if you look at the stock market, stock market goes up under both Republicans and Democrats. I think we're going to talk about

Starting point is 00:21:54 this idea that only one president in the last 45 years has seen the stock market during their tenure go down. And that was George Bush. And it only happened to go down because he got hit with the global financial crisis right as he was leaving office. But if his presidency had lasted another year, year and a half, he would have actually been positive as well. And so asset prices tend to be much more structural. And I tweeted last week, I said, the Fed chairman's more important than the president to the Bitcoin price. Same with the stock market, all financial markets, who the Fed chair is, is more important than who sits in the White House. And so I think that Bitcoin will continue to succeed regardless of, you know, who's sitting in a kind of presidential

Starting point is 00:22:39 seat. What do you think? I agree that I think assets go up not because of who's in the White House. It depends on macro factors, who's running the Federal Reserve. And, you know, for stocks in particular. You have earnings and business cycles and investor sentiment. But something that I noticed the other day, I was reporting on this on the stock market, and the S&P 500 has been pretty much equal under Trump and Biden. But the Russell 2000 small cap index, I think it was up 10% in Trump's term, and it's pretty much flat so far in Biden's term. And the NASDAQ composite, I think, tripled Biden's returns. Under Trump, it tripled Biden's returns. And that tells me there is maybe some discrepancy with maybe regulation or sentiment or interest rates,

Starting point is 00:23:40 for example. What do you see as the drivers of those sort of performance gaps under each president? So what's interesting is the S&P 500 is probably more important as an overall, you know, kind of through history kind of analysis than small caps or tech or kind of any subset and dead even between Trump and Biden, like literally dead even, you know, through that period of their initial term. And if, again, you go back and you look over 45 years, it's up into the right, you know, under almost every single president. The reason why tech may have been up more during Trump's era is, you know, Trump was leaving office right as everyone was becoming Zoomers, right?

Starting point is 00:24:23 And everyone was on Zoom and on Facebook and like it was just this massive influx of both capital and liquidity into the market, which some of it was directly from Trump and his policies. Some of it was response to the pandemic and regardless of who the president was, they were gonna go and put trillions of dollars into the market.

Starting point is 00:24:39 And then also it was just like people were locked in their house. And so obviously tech is going to do very, very well. Now, what about small caps, right? And so then you get into, well, maybe there's interest rate decisions that really matter there, because you have really low interest rates. So the debt is able to be used to fuel growth of these small cap companies, etc. So like you can kind of, you know, play around a

Starting point is 00:24:57 bunch of data, cut it up, try to figure out stuff. I think at the end of the day, what you end up seeing is the S&P 500, which is kind of the best representation of the US economy is identical under both. Now, I do think that Trump, if you put these candidates, you know, Trump, and then what perceived to be Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee. If you put these two next to each other, Trump is much more for deregulation, much more for lower interest rates, much more for kind of economic growth, job growth, right? You know, national security, these things that you would think would be these great tailwinds nationally. And so if you could like hold constant the economic cycles and like all of the geopolitical situation and also any sort of public

Starting point is 00:25:42 health crisis, et cetera, and compare policies, it would appear that Trump should do better, right? Given the policies he has. It's just not how the world works. And so we start digging into the data. You start to see this like really kind of crazy stuff where you're like, oh, you would think that a wartime president would see GDP going up, stock market, you know, flying, like all this stuff. And then George Bush actually was the only president in the last 45 years where the stock market was down. Oh, he got hit with the global financial crisis. If he didn't get hit with the global financial crisis, right? So I do think as much as policies matter and are very, very important, policies still have to be enacted and operate within the regular world. And the world

Starting point is 00:26:23 is just messy. It's complex. There's constantly things going on. And so for better or worse, sometimes the results of these policies in terms of how you would measure them are much more dependent on what happens in the world than the policies themselves. And I think that the stock market is a great example where, you know, on the face, Trump and Biden being equal. But if you look at the actual policies in terms of pro-business, it would seem that, you know, the Republican side is much more pro-business than maybe the Democrat side. So I think what Trump brought when he was first president, he used the stock market as like a metric of his success. 100%. And he would always point to it. He'd say, look what the stock's doing and all that. And that became, it was after Trump,

Starting point is 00:27:04 I think that it became sort of this metric that we would look to as reporters and analysts. But it doesn't really matter who's in the White House. And I think now since 2016, every president will say, oh, look how good the stock market is doing. But then they'll say the president doesn't control the stock market if it's going down. What are some of the indicators that you're watching for or that you watch typically for how the stock market might do rather than, you know, the president or policy. What you just described is one of Trump's KPIs was the S&P. And he not only was it his KPI, he basically installed it as a KPI on the new presidential dashboard in the White House, right? It was like, now we're gonna watch the stock

Starting point is 00:27:50 market. In terms of, you know, what is really going to drive the stock market? It's so dumb, but I really think it just comes down to what is the price of capital. And when you have interest rates that go down, you're going to have asset prices that go up. When you have interest rates that go up, you're going to have asset prices that go down. That is probably the single greatest driver is kind of price of capital slash liquidity in the market. And those two things tend to go hand in hand. Now, there are times where you might get a divergence. Right now, we have near all-time high stock prices, but we have interest rates over 5%. And so it can happen. But if you were to look, give me a hundred scenarios, 90 out of a hundred, you're going to get that

Starting point is 00:28:34 relationship between interest rates and asset prices. And so again, interestingly, the Federal Reserve chairman is not an elected position. The president is not making interest rate decisions, although there are some candidates who they would like to get more control of that decision-making process. And so when you look at that, you say to yourself, am I trying to predict whether the stock market is going to go up or down? Or am I trying to predict which policies are going to be more right? And what I've come to the conclusion of is if you're sitting staring at your brokerage account, you should be trying to figure out which direction the stock market is headed. If you're sitting in the ballot box, you should be making decisions based on policies,

Starting point is 00:29:15 right? And it's hard not to let those two things cross over each other. But the data, the actual math, objectively, if you look at it shows that the stock market is not going to be nearly as dependent on who the president is, as maybe people would like to think. And vice versa is who ends up being considered a good president or not is not necessarily tied to is the stock market up or not. If you look, you know, stocks are near all time highs. Joe Biden has one of the lowest approval ratings in history. So obviously, it's stock market going up doesn't just mean that people think you're a good president. And so it's this very weird dynamic of like, how do you separate fact from narrative? And I think people just understanding your brokerage

Starting point is 00:29:58 account is different than the ballot box is probably a pretty important lesson to kind of internalize. I think that is fair. Thank you so much for having me, Pump. Absolutely. Thanks so much for doing this.

The Pomp Podcast - #1386 Phil Rosen & Anthony Pompliano | Donald Trump SHOCKS The Bitcoin World

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