The Pomp Podcast - #1425 Anthony Pompliano & Phil Rosen | Paul Tudor Jones Is ALL-IN On Bitcoin

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

Phil Rosen, the Co-Founder of Opening Bell Daily, and Anthony Pompliano, Author of ‘How To Live An Extraordinary Life’ and CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss Paul Tudor Jones being long gold and long bitcoin, why he is doing that, what that means for your portfolio, Goldman Sachs S&P 500 long-term outlook, and prediction markets. ======================= Buy book: https://www.amazon.com/Live-Extraordinary-Life-Anthony-Pompliano/dp/0857199927/ ======================= Xapo Bank, the world’s first fully licensed Bitcoin-enabled bank, offers military-grade security with an unmatched blend of physical and digital security, as well as pioneering regulatory oversight, so your funds are always protected. Beyond secure storage, they enable you to grow and use your Bitcoin. Earn daily interest in Bitcoin, spend with zero FX fees using a global card, and make instant payments via the Lightning Network for unrivalled access and convenience. Visit ⁠https://www.xapobank.com/pomp⁠ to join. ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's up, guys? Phil Rosen is back, and this is an absolute banger. We talk about Bitcoin and what is going on in the market. Do we think it's going to go higher and how much higher? I'm

sure some of you are interested in. On top of that, we talk about Paul Tudor Jones, the GOAT, one of the best traders in the world. He went on CNBC and he said inflation is coming. He's long Bitcoin. He's long gold. We talk about why he is doing that and whether it matters for you and your portfolio. Then we talk about the S&P 500. Goldman thinks it's only going to go up 3% a year for the next decade. I disagree and I'll explain why. And then on top of that, we get into prediction markets and whether we believe them, we don't. What is going to change about the world moving forward? This episode is packed with a lot of things that a lot of you care about. And I really enjoyed it because Phil taught me some things. Hopefully I made him think more critically as

well. So here's my latest episode with Phil Rosen. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Today's episode is brought to you by Zappo. Picture this, every time you trade Bitcoin, the spread determines how much value stays with you. That's why securing top tier Bitcoin trading fees is key to growing your Bitcoin wealth. But what if I told you that there's a platform that

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is designed to boost your gains and fuel your financial future. Head to zappobank.com forward slash pomp to join. That's X-A-P-O-B-A-N-K dot com slash pomp. All right, Phil, what we got? Okay, so today the billionaire Paul Tudor Jones said on CNBC he is long gold, long Bitcoin and avoiding fixed income assets. This is something similar to what Druckenmiller said, I think, just a week ago about Bitcoin. And here's his direct quote today on CNBC, Paul Tudor Jones. We, as in the US government, are going to be broke really quick unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues. What do you make of this? I wrote about this this morning. Listen, if you have half a brain, you're all over this issue. Obviously, the national debt is a massive problem. $300 billion have been added to the national debt in the first 18 days of the new fiscal year. How are we spending $300 billion in 18 days? That's just the debt. That doesn't include total spending. That's just what got added to the debt. So $35.77 trillion now in debt. One of my favorite statistics is in the first 221 years of our country, we racked up $12 trillion in debt. 221 years, the first 12 trillion. In the last five years, we added another 12 trillion. This is bonkers. The Congressional Budget Office just came out and they said that by 2054, 30 years from now, they expect our national

debt to grow from $35.7 trillion to $153 trillion. If you plot that out on a line, it's parabolic. You do not want to see a country's national debt parabolic, but that is where we are headed. And if you use that $35 trillion number, Stanley Druckenmiller deserves a national medal for going on CNBC and always saying it's really a $200 trillion number because of all the unfunded liabilities. We promised people a lot of money that we haven't paid them yet. So what about social security? What about Medicare and Medicaid?

What about all these programs that we've promised the people? We're in debt. We owe them that money unless somebody has the courage to shut those programs down and ain't a politician in the world that's going to do it.

So the debt's a problem. And the only way out, the only way out is to inflate away the debt. Donald Trump ain't talking about getting to a balanced budget. Kamala Harris ain't talking about that. I have not heard one time

this entire political campaign. The president of the United States, to be the leader of the free world, not one person has said, we should balance the budget. It's crazy. So they're going to let it just inflate away. And so you better not be holding cash or you won't be on the wrong side of that equation. Well, do you think in any of that, what you just said, is Bitcoin the most obvious solution? They're all solutions. Real estate's going up. Gold's going up. Stocks are going up. Bitcoin's going up. It's all going up because if you have an asset that is priced in dollars, the dollar is going to be worth less. There's somebody who's going to need more dollars in the future to buy the same asset. It's just that Bitcoin is the most sensitive, right? If you

go back to 2020, Paul Tudor Jones had this great quote. He said, I think that Bitcoin is going to be the fastest horse in the inflation bucket. Out of all the assets you can pick, I think Bitcoin is going to be the fastest one. He was right. Same thing now. Gold's up 30% year to date. It's up 30%, a monster year for gold. Gold bugs patting themselves on the back. Wait a minute, Bitcoin's up 60%, doubled the return. Bitcoin is gold with wings. If inflation happens, real estate goes up,

stocks go up, gold goes up, and so does Bitcoin. Bitcoin just goes up more than all of them. And so that is why you see these guys saying, look, they're old school. They're going to still hold gold. Young people aren't going to hold gold. They're simply going to sit there and they're going to say, you know what?

I'm going to instead buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin's doing all right. of 60% year to date. And I think that we're going a lot higher during this bull market. And you've been very clear that you don't think it matters who the president is for Bitcoin, for stocks, for any market, or for any asset. But the big financial story the last few weeks has been these betting markets like PolyMarket and Kalshi. And you wrote about it this week that if prediction markets end up being accurate for this election, that's going to change everything for traditional polls. I want you to explain that a bit more,

but also the part two of that question is, if the prediction markets prove true, and then we also see a correlation with financial markets, would we also be able to do away with the prediction markets? So the reason why the president doesn't matter is because both Republicans and Democrats add to the debt. They're not balancing the budget. So both Republicans and Democrats contributed to the national debt. If they contributed to the national debt, then they got to inflate away the debt. And so the president doesn't matter because structurally debt's going up. Inflation is going to have to happen. Therefore, asset prices go up. Now, when you go look at the prediction markets, I love that so many people are saying that they're

skewed. The more I hear people saying that they're rigged and skewed, the less that I believe that because the masses are usually pretty dumb when it comes to things like this. If you go ask people, can you describe to me how it works 99 of people can't most of the reporters who are writing about it probably can't actually explain it you and i were talking earlier today that the guys at kaoshi which i think that one's the most important one to pay attention to it's only available in the united states it's the only legal one in the u.s to bet on the on the presidential election and it has a true market maker behind it in jeff yass and susquehanna there are other ones poly market is a big one, et cetera, but they're not available in the U S so whether it's foreigners

betting on it or whatever, that is not as deep of a signal. I think as something like for the presidential election market, right? For specific, this market. Now, when I go and I look at it, how she's coming out saying that it takes $8 million to move Trump's odds 2%, $8 million. You tell me who is going on cow sheet and putting $8 million down to move the market? Nobody. The median bet sizes in these markets is like tens of thousands of dollars. And so if you look at it, Kamala Harris's median bet size is actually higher than Donald Trump's, which means that people, the whales are putting more into Harris than Trump. It's just that more people are betting on Trump than Harris. And so it goes completely against this whole

manipulation theory or the story. And so I think that these prediction markets are going to be way more accurate than people give them credit for. Now, I will caveat with two things. All of the prediction markets, Nick Carter pointed this out. The aggregators, the bookies, the prediction markets, and the proprietary models are all saying the same thing. Donald Trump's going to win. They're all skewing that way now. But what's even more interesting is right now, I think that Trump's odds last time I looked on Kyle Shee was 63%. Of course, Elon Musk says it should go to 69% because the most entertaining outcome would be, you know, the most likely. But if you go look at Real Clear Politics, which is kind of a nonpartisan outlet, I believe,

they put out odds, 93% odds that Donald Trump wins the electoral college. Not general population, but electoral college. Why is that important? Because actually their poll is suggesting it's 93% odds instead of the 63% on the prediction market. The simple answer here is it's going to be a landslide. Again, either direction, it's going to be a landslide. So either prediction markets are dead on and Donald Trump wins in a landslide, or they're

so far off and it got so skewed in some way, it's so wrong that Harris wins and surprises everybody. If you go back to 2016, Trump was the surprise. Everyone thought that Clinton was going to win. So I think that's really what we're starting to see here. Now, what I do think is probably most important, and we're going to bet on everything. If America knows one thing and knows how to gamble, the stock market is a casino. People are just gambling.

Now you can sit there and you can say, well, you know, Warren Buffett, he's not a gambler, bullshit. Warren Buffett is the greatest risk taker of all time, right? This guy waits until everyone else got blood in the streets and then he pounces. He's just a gambler. He happens to call himself an investor. He happens to understand the odds of the game, but what's the difference between the guy that goes, plays blackjack, understands odds, gets up and walks away from the table and Warren Buffett who understands, I'm just going to wait for this asset to fall to a certain valuation. I'm going to buy it and then just wait. It's the same thing. It's discipline and they're playing odds. And so if stock market's a casino, the government is preying

on poor people by literally taking their money in the lottery. Nobody wants to talk about that in this country. It's a tax on stupidity. You literally are taking money from people on the hope that they may win billions of dollars. What intelligent person goes and buys a lottery ticket and says, I like the 2.4 billion to one odds. Nobody. And so that's a government-sanctioned gambling outlet. And they take the money and they give it to education. Think about how crazy that is.

We're going to take the money from the people who don't understand odds to give it to people to indoctrinate them into government education. That don't make a lot of sense. So the fact that we then get to prediction odds and to other gambling is just a continuation. This is American culture, but it's not just in America. It's globally. And so as people get access to more information,

everything gets financialized. People are going to want to make bets. I believe X is going to happen or I believe Y is going to happen. That's been happening for centuries. You just never had an ability to bet people like this where the friction was so low. So I do think that these are going to be massive. It's not just going to be presidential elections. I actually think we're going to have the opposite problem. Too many things are going to get kind of prediction markets, including at some point, you get the assassination markets. Whole nother issue. Because I do think that we saw recently, if I understand correctly, the Hamas leader, I think he had a prediction market on whether he was still going to be alive by a certain date.

Like, you start doing that type of stuff, that's a whole nother ball of wax that you don't want to get into. So let's just stay with the presidential odds and the financial assets. Yeah, no, that gets very dicey. Something that has been coming up for me in my reporting is the correlation between prediction markets and stocks and bond yields. And I'm not sure if there's really a consensus on that because some people tell me, yes, they are super correlated. Others tell me it's all macro factors. But my question is really if they are correlated and we learn they're correlated when the election passes, I wonder if we'll just start looking at the stock market as the prediction market. The stock market already has served as that

in the past. Right. Donald Trump. I mean, you ask him, what did you do in your last presidential tenure? Look how strong the economy was. Look at the stock market. Right. By the way, what do you think that the Democrat Party is doing right now? Where is that 300 billion, an explosion of national debt? Where's that money going right now? We're two weeks out from an election. Are we trying to pump up the stock market? Are we trying to disperse money to potential voters? What's going on? I don't know.

I have no clue. Maybe that's happening. Maybe it's not. But it's real interesting. Yes, we got the start of a fiscal year. But why within one month of an election is the current administration in which the incumbent vice president is running. All of a sudden, you're seeing all these stories about soft landing, strong economy, capital being pumped into the into the economy. All that stuff's happening.

It's crazy. So the question becomes, should we just lay all the cards on the table? America has always wanted to pretend like we're above all that stuff. But actually, if we're going to cut interest rates within 60 or 90 days of the election, if we're going to take on hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, if we're going to pump money into the stock market, if we're going to expand the M2 money supply, if we're going to run around and tell everyone how great their life is, just call a spade a spade. By the way, what do you things happen on the other side. They're both doing it. It's just that everyone wants to pretend like, ah, I wouldn't do that, but they're doing it. So just to be clear, you're saying that

the economy is improving and the stock market's going up due to whatever government intervention because of political reasons. I think that is a fair question to ask. Because if you look, let's say the central bank, I think that the Fed is unlikely to be saying, I want this candidate to that candidate. There's conspiracy theorists who think that. I don't believe that. What I do think is possible, though, is that the people in control are saying to themselves, how do we get some fiscal policy going? How do we get some money being handed out? Where is there money sitting around that we don't have to get approved and go through a legislative process? And we start pumping into these systems, right? One of the stats I recently saw, I think it was the Wall

Street Journal put this out, home prices in swing states have exploded. Some of the worst housing affordability in the country. You think those people are saying to themselves, oh, gee, my life's amazing. Home prices are taking off and their wages aren't keeping up. So again, how do you go into these situations? What do you do? And people want to yell and scream about it, but just put yourself in the shoes of a politician. In a weird way, an election is a forcing function for you to start thinking about, am I actually helping the people? the cynic will say oh you're pandering oh you're just giving them money oh you're just doing these things federal reserve recently came out with a study that shows you know what group of people

have benefited the most over the last four years the bottom quartile of the wealth status the bottom 50 of americans have actually had the greatest percentage increase in net worth out of all Americans, 95% increase in the last four years for the bottom 50% of Americans. Now people will say, oh, that's a really low base. So it's easy. Okay. Well, the story is that all the rich people get all the money, but the people who actually gained the most ground was the bottom 50%. And so you look at that and you say to yourself, like, there's a lot of complexity to this. That is not the story that's being told publicly, but the data is there. The government is reporting that data. And so when you look at that,

You say to yourself, maybe this stuff is way harder than we all like to think. Maybe you can't actually take the economy or a certain individual's life or certain wealth status kind of situation and put it in a headline. Maybe you need a lot of asterisks. Maybe you need pages and pages of footnotes. Maybe you actually need a lot of charts and graphs and stuff to try to figure it out, right? It's not as easy as just saying like everyone's better off or no one's better off.

There are some groups that actually their life has improved. There's a lot of groups that it hasn't. And so I think that's what politicians are trying to figure out is like, what is the group of people where it's actually going to matter. Trump's at McDonald's, right? Harris is doing all these campaign stops, right? You look at these people, they're obviously telling you who they think is the constituency they got to reach. And so I don't see Harris going to certain places that Trump's going. I don't see Trump going to certain places that Harris is going. And so when you get that, you start to realize, watch the actions they're doing,

the stops they're making. That's telling you their strategy. Their strategy is telling you who they think is actually going to determine the election. We're two weeks out. It's put up or shut up, right? Like either you're going to go talk to the people and convince them or you're not. And so now it's the mad sprint to the end. And it's pretty telling where they're spending time. Yeah. It's going to be very interesting these next 10, 14 days or so. I think what you bring up about the bottom 50% doing the best in the last few years, that's actually quite a strong data point for Harris to lean into, but I haven't seen almost any commentary on it until you just brought it up. Because if she says that, then she's got to take credit for the policies.

She takes credit for the policies, then everyone's going to yell and scream about housing affordability, about inflation, about all this other stuff. And so, part of the problem in politics, I had this guy, John Avalon, come on and he said that every political consultant tells the same thing. Don't put your policies on your website. Don't write your policies down because you can get critiqued for it. The problem in politics is that very few people are willing to actually stand up by what they accomplished. So if you look at the debate between like Biden and Trump, when they were going, it was just like both of them yelling and screaming, saying like, I was the best president in history, right? There was no policy debate at all because they realized

that if you start to take credit for something immediately, other people come in and they start to critique it. So, what usually will happen, and actually, I think Trump does a great job of this. If you notice, he never talks about what he did in terms of the border wall itself. He talks about that he secured the border. And the reason that I believe he's doing that is because if he starts talking about the border wall, then it becomes, well, you said you were going to build this many miles, but you only built this many. You said it was going to cost this, but it cost that, right? Instead, if you talk about something that's a little bit squishier, like securing the border, a lot of people say, well, like, yeah, less people came across the

border than when they were in office. And so, it becomes something where you're trying to essentially claim victory without actually being subjected to critiques. That's why a lot of people hate politics, right? Because if you and I sat down and we said, okay, let's evaluate two candidates, the conversation you and I would have as two rational people who aren't the candidates would be very different than the two candidates. Because basically, they're just entertainers and promoters. They're trying to just present something to people rather than actually have a policy discussion. Yeah, their job is really to be as vague as possible. Yeah. And by the way, and to do it in an entertaining way.

Yeah. Yeah. Okay, Pomp, I want to switch gears a little bit to the stock market. There's a chart I covered in Opening Bell Daily this week that shows how the S&P 500 is now more expensive than it was than the 1929 crash. And it's getting close to what we saw in the 1999 tech bubble. And a lot of this is coming from what I think is the huge AI play. And obviously, when ChatGPT came out two years ago. There's been a ton of enthusiasm and stretch valuation since then. My question is,

if this multi-year AI play doesn't pay off, I think we'll be in trouble. But is there something that can, is there another piece of the market that can sort of prop up that play from not panning out? I think that for the last six weeks, the market's been up every single week.

And what's interesting is since July 10th, the only sector of the S&P that is not up is the technology sector. And so pretty much the rest of the market is carrying the S&P right now. Now, AI, I think, is a big part of the story. But the expectations can't grow to the sky forever. What I find most interesting is we saw this in the internet. We saw it in crypto. Now we're about to see it in AI. You used to go and you used to tell your parents, I'm joining an internet company.

My friend Mark Yusko taught me this. But guess what you say now? So I'm joining a new company. Of course they use the internet. What company doesn't use the internet? It used to be that you're going to go and you're going to join a crypto company. You're already starting to see companies

are using stable coins or this technology or that technology or whatever, right? And so now you're just joining a company. Today, everyone's talking about AI. Eventually you're just going to join a company and they're all going to use AI. And so what actually is likely to happen with the AI stuff

is that you're going to get this huge boom. Then there's going to be a crash of expectations and kind of hit the disillusionment trough, and then you're going to really see the benefit of it. And so it doesn't matter whether you time the market correctly or not. If you're in for the technology, whether it is as a user, as a technologist,

as an investor or whatever, you're going to ride the waves. People are going to get excited. They're going to not be excited. They're going to be excited again. But artificial intelligence is obviously valuable, right? And so you are just automating. Everyone talks about AI like it's some like sentient being.

Like, do you think software is valuable? Does software work? If you say no, you're an idiot. But if you say yes, well, that's all artificial intelligences. It's just software. It's using code to automate tasks. There's not some magic behind it, right? Yeah, it's complex.

Yeah, it's hard. But if you go talk to an artificial intelligence engineer, which I've done to many of them and say, explain to me how they're doing this. They're not like, uh, it's just like this black box. Like, you know, just like, I don't know. It just works. No, they're like, okay, you take a bunch of information, you train it. There's a model like, and they walk you through it. And you're like, okay, by the way, that's crazy that it works that way, but it's very clear what is happening. And so the reason why that's important is because it's going to get exported to every single

business. And so today, maybe it is Klaviyo talking about they reduced 40% of their customer service staff. Everyone's all excited about that. I know companies that have 10,000 people in their customer service department. And in particular, one guy works at a very large company. He runs that division. And he recently told me that now a material percent of the phone calls coming in are being answered by AI and people don't even know. And so he's like, dude, it's coming. And we got to figure out, do we keep these employees? Do we move them somewhere else? What do we do? And so like this stuff is real, but the question is, where does it show up in earnings? Where does it show up in stock growth? And so the people who are worried about a stock

crash, I tell you, you're on a sugar high. You took a bunch of sugar and you just want to know, is there more M&Ms in the room or not? Instead, get lean, get fit. If you're here for the next decade, stocks are going to be higher in a decade. Why? Because Paul Tudor Jones says that inflation is coming. Because Stanley Druckenmiller told you currency debasement is a big problem because the national debt is literally $35 trillion on its way to 100. And so people who are worried about stock prices, all they are doing is they're just telling you how short-term oriented they are. Now, if you're a stock picker, entry price matters. So you don't want to buy at the top because you might have to wait a number of years.

But if you're a long-term investor and you're just dollar cost averaging, guess what? Bitcoin is basically flat since 2021. Hit $69,000, trading $67,000, $68,000 today. But you're up huge if you just started dollar cost averaging and you dollar cost average all the way up in the bull market, all the way down through the bear market and back in the recovery. And so dollar cost averaging over a long period of time for most individual self-directed investors is probably going to be the smartest thing that they can do, regardless of the asset. You want to buy REITs? Knock yourself out, dollar cost average. You want to buy Bitcoin? Knock yourself out. You want to buy stock? Whatever you want to do, dollar cost average. Don't worry about where the prices are. Just

make the mental switch. Don't worry about what the dollar value of your account is. Simply look at how many shares do I own? That is what Bitcoin taught an entire generation, is it isn't about what's the dollar value of the account, it's how many Bitcoin do I own? Can I get to one full Bitcoin? Can I get to two Bitcoin? Can I get to five Bitcoin? Can I get 10 Bitcoin? Same thing's true in the stock market, just no one ever talks about it that way. How many shares do you own? If you start out owning 100 shares of your favorite company, get to 105, get to 110, get to 120, get to 150,

and hold for a long period of time, let inflation do its business, and you are likely to end up with more dollar value over a long run than you have today. But it's because you focused on acquiring shares, not, oh my God, the stock's up today. Oh my God, the stock's down today. Oh my God, it's up again.

It's all fake money. It don't count till you sell it. And that's the thing that entire generation, I think, is starting to learn, and it's going to make them better investors. That's a great reframe, focusing on the share amount rather than the dollar amount. Just to clarify, you see the AI boom right now. This is going to become more of a structural change rather than a cyclical trend?

AI is coming for everyone's job. Artificial intelligence already automated away the central bankers. Nobody want to talk about that. Bitcoin is a more disciplined monetary policy than any other central bank in the world. there's no central bankers we automated away their asses with software right and now no one calls it artificial intelligence well what do you call a pre-programmed piece of software that automatically executes based on preset parameters that understands exactly what's happening in the world and can execute sounds a lot like artificial intelligence we took intelligence we made

artificial and software and we execute monetary policy right and so like if you can do it with a central banker you can do it anybody there's not a job in the world that is going to be safe from this stuff. And so what's going to happen is you're going to get new jobs. What's a prompt engineer? You ever heard of that? Growing up, that was just, can you Google, right? But now all of a sudden they're creating new jobs. People are going to learn how to use this stuff to their advantage. They're going to start integrating technologies, right? Where they say, okay, we're going to take artificial intelligence. We're going to take stable coins. We're going to take machines. We're going to do that. We're going to put all this stuff together. It's going

to create brand new products, services, industries, verticals, et cetera. Like that is where