The Pomp Podcast - #1433 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | Bitcoin All-Time High As Trump Wins Election!

Episode Date: November 6, 2024

Polina Pompliano, Author of ‘Hidden Genius’ and Founder of The Profile, and Anthony Pompliano, Author of ‘How To Live An Extraordinary Life’ and CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss 2024 election, why Donald Trump won in landslide, what that means for your investment portfolio, stocks, bitcoin, predictions during a Trump Presidency, JD Vance, Elon Musk, and all the impacts of the election.  ======================= Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Created by Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum, Polkadot empowers users to build decentralized applications with ease. Backed by industry leaders, making it a preferred choice for big names, Polkadot stands out as a leading choice for investors seeking a reliable, future-proof solution in the growing world of Web3 technology. Learn more at ⁠https://polkadot.com/.⁠ ======================= Buy book: https://www.amazon.com/Live-Extraordinary-Life-Anthony-Pompliano/dp/0857199927/ ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a very special episode for you. It is with Polina Pompliano, and we go deep on the 2024 election. We talk about Donald Trump's decisive

victory, why it was a landslide, how I knew that was coming, what it means for your investment portfolio, including stocks, Bitcoin, and much more. Then we talk about the Republican and Democratic parties, how they've been evolving, what our predictions are for the next four years under a Trump presidency. And then we even get into details like J.D. Vance, Elon Musk, and much more. What we are watching is a historic victory for Donald Trump, probably one of the greatest comebacks in political history. But there are massive ramifications across society, both economically and socially. And so we try to unpack as much of that as possible. Again, I'm an independent and so is Polina. Regardless of how you voted, we are simply

trying to understand where the world is going and how it will impact us, our portfolio and all of you as well. So I'd love feedback. If you agree with something, if you disagree with something, Please let us know in the comments. The more that you give us feedback, the better the show becomes. And so here's my latest conversation with Polina Pompliano. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion.

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All right, Polina, what's the first topic? Man, today's going to be an explosive one. What is your initial reaction to the Trump victory? Donald Trump won in a landslide exactly as I predicted. And I think that the American people have sent Donald Trump back to the White House with a mandate. They want lower inflation. They want more home affordability.

They want secure borders. They want to feel safe in their own cities. They want to understand that the president of the United States is working for them, not against them. They don't want us engaging in foreign wars, and they want to feel like America's future is much brighter than its past. And it's very clear. I continue to talk about this. Americans want to feel safe. They want to feel strong, and they want economic opportunity. And whether you like Donald Trump or you don't, it is very clear that most people were better off from 2016 to 2020 than they were in 2020 to 2024. Whether that is policy related or not, Donald Trump is coming back to the White House because there's a lot of people that say, I want that guy. And what is most interesting to me is that the Democrat Party, they made the fatal mistake,

the original sin. If you are competing for something and you spend more time talking about your competitor than you do talking about yourself, people sense weakness. They can smell the fear in the air. Polls lie, vibes don't lie. And so that's what really drove my understanding that this was going to be a landslide. I did not think that Donald Trump would be able to pull off a win in the House, the Senate, the popular vote and the electoral vote. But I told my brother two days ago, I think this is going to be such a landslide that he may be able to win the popular vote. And John was like, there's no way that's insane. And he talked me off the ledge. I believe a Republican has not won the popular vote in the last 20 years. But we have to go back and understand why are people going towards a candidate who's not a politician? He's an outsider who's been highly

disruptive. There is one, the policies. A lot of these policies are common sense policies. How in the world is it that the United States runs a $2 trillion annual deficit, But American citizens are paying up to 55 percent of their annual income to the government. Right. Tax receipts keep going up, but they keep spending more. That is dumb. And the American people just mandated Donald Trump to go there and to cut spending and to cut taxes.

Stop taking so much of our money and stop wasting so much of our money. Then they look at and say, why are we sending hundreds of billions of dollars to foreign wars that we're not involved in. If we want to help our allies, then other countries should also be helping. But if the United States is going to try to play police on a global basis, it is going to try to have a highly regulatory environment domestically around housing, energy, and other places. We're going to open up the border and let millions of people who we have no clue who they are, walk into our country, it is death by a thousand cuts. We just keep getting sliced and sliced and sliced. Spending is out of control and there is no plan to stop it. And so the American

people went into the ballot box last night and they said enough. And they didn't just say enough, they yelled enough. And I think that the Democrat party, it's the single best thing that could happen to them because it's going to cause them to go and reset. Who are the young stars of the Democrat Party? We don't know who they are. Who are the people who are pulling independent voters over to the Democrat Party? I don't see many. And so the Republican Party, which now constitutes Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, Elon Musk, Dana White, RFK, Tulsi Gabbard, Danica Patrick, just go down the line. They have built a team of the Avengers, of all of these people who have unique thoughts about where should the country go. And you know what's amazing to me is I was

watching the Joe Rogan, Elon Musk podcast episode, and Joe was saying something like, you know, I just can't believe what has happened to the Democratic Party. It used to be common sentence. Right. And Elon said, Joe, you and I used to be Democrats. Like you forget that all these people were actually more they leaned left and the Republicans have somehow pulled a lot of them. I actually think Tulsi that the left went so far left that they just the Republicans didn't pull them over. These people were politically homeless. Yeah. Well, I don't identify with this far left stuff. And I don't actually think of myself as a hardcore Republican. I just feel like I am center, center left, center right, whatever. Kind of just have common sense.

I don't want any extremism in my views or implemented in the country. And the Republican party actually moved towards the center. And so one of the things that a lot of folks that I continue to talk with, and when I say vibes don't lie, my greatest advantage in being able to predict a landslide for Donald Trump over pollsters or anybody else is that I talked to a lot of people. I talked to rich people. I talked to poor people. I talked to people outside the United States. I talked to people in the United States. I talked to people that run companies. I talked to people that work at companies. I talked to people who invest and I talked to people who don't invest. And I talked to hundreds of people. And you could easily tell that there was a lot of

closet Trump supporters that were going to cross over. They were going to vote for Donald Trump. But also what you could tell is there was a lot of people saying this is insane what has been being done, because if you look at things like home affordability, if you don't build more houses, home prices don't come down. It's very simple. And instead of saying, here is how we are going to deregulate the housing industry and we are going to go and build millions and millions of homes, you had policies being presented from the left that was, we are going to give $25,000 for first-time home purchase. That is economic illiteracy, also known as stupidity. Because if you give $25,000 out to people to go buy a home, all home prices go up by $25,000. You actually made it more unaffordable. Then if you go and you look at things like boys playing in women's sports,

highly controversial in the media. It's not controversial for the common sense American. When people go behind closed doors, when people go to their local bar, when they go and they hang out with their friends, they say, this is insane. And then they went into the ballot box and they said, no one knows, but I'm going to vote. And some of the votes, Starr County in Texas is probably the most mind-blowing data point that we have. What happened? Starr County is in the southern part of Texas. 96% Latino vote. 96%. Donald Trump in 2016 lost Starr County by 60 points. 60. That is a blowout that you cannot recover from.

Donald Trump won last night's star county by 16 points. In eight years, it is a 76-point swing in a county with 96% Latinos. You know why? Because Latinos, immigrants, blacks, and other groups that everyone wants to try to put their identity politics onto, they probably walk into those ballot boxes based on all of the anecdotal data that I have and the results we saw last night. and say, I'm voting for the authentic guy. I'm voting for the guy where I know where I stand with them. But, and hold on a second. I want to like highlight, what do you think changed in those eight years? Because like you said,

like he lost that county, but now he won. What happened? I don't think people took Donald Trump seriously in 2016. And I think that it was very easy for them to yell and scream, he's racist, he's whatever. Yeah.

Right? I do think that now the internet, Elon Musk buying Twitter, and podcast completely broke this thing open and the internet called the bluff of the mainstream media. Remember, we are talking about people saying that Donald Trump was holding a Nazi rally at MSG. Yeah, that's crazy. While there are Israeli flags hanging in the building, there are Jewish people speaking on stage. And so the American people are not stupid. You can fool them one time. But what they did last night is they basically went into the mainstream, went to those voting booths, and they gave the middle finger to the mainstream media.

Do you remember what you told me a few days before the election? You said, if Kamala wins, then I think that the mainstream media still is like very dominant. And I think we saw. If Kamala Harris had won, it means that the mainstream media has more influence than the internet. Right. But if the opposite happens, the internet now has more power than the mainstream media.

It is hard to know if you're living in a bubble, right? Like we're all on Twitter, we're all reading this stuff. It's hard to know if that's a microcosm of what people feel. But I think last night

proved that it's not. The mainstream media was gaslighting the American people. They gaslit us on Joe Biden is okay. Yeah, the Biden situation was just absurd because I thought that people knew this was a lie, but I think people believed that he is totally okay. I don't know. Why should we ever listen? That's the question now. It's no longer, maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. It is to the point where they are activists.

I'm a pretty reserved person, right? I don't like to kind of jump to conclusions. I don't like extremism, et cetera. I have many friends for years that have been saying this. And I've always said, give them the benefit of the doubt. It's a hard job, etc. I still believe those things to be true. I still think that being a journalist is a very difficult job. I have many friends who are journalists who I think do a good job. But there are a number of journalists that I also know they're full of shit. They're just activists masquerading as journalists. But hold on. And I think to your point that this is going to make the Democratic Party reset. I think the same is going to happen with big legacy media organizations, because this is a big L for them.

This is a huge, huge, huge- They're walking around with an L tattooed on their forehead right now. No, but it's just like, I think it worked in 2020. And then they were caught flat-footed in 2016. Worked in 2020. And now it was like saying the fascism thing, saying the Nazi thing, throwing out these big, big words still didn't sway people. And I think that that loss and that like deafening of the American people of like, I cannot listen to any more of this. I know the facts, I think. It was desperation. And the more they lashed out, the less that the American people believed them. They could sniff the desperation. You cannot fool the American people more than

once. On top of that, what I think is always telling, if you spend more time talking about your opponent than you do talking about your own policies, they smell fear. And that's what it was. Vibes don't lie. And so on top of that, I think that the other things that we have to talk about, J.D. Vance is the classic American story. Right. This guy who has been attacked nonstop in the media should be held on a pedestal for every American to see anything is possible in this country. He was born to a drug addict in Appalachia, an area of the country that is basically forgotten by the coastal elites. Severe poverty. He lived in poverty. He served in the Marine Corps. He deployed overseas in defense of his country. He came back and used the GI Bill

to go to college. He graduates from Yale Law School. He then helps to fund companies in America. He builds his own company. He writes a bestselling book talking about the people that he grew up with and why their plight, their struggle is misunderstood. And then he becomes the vice president of the United States, the third youngest vice president in history. anything is possible in this country but we need free speech we need the right to defend ourselves we need to be left alone by the government and we need to believe that the future is going to be better than the past and i do think that the biggest attack on jd is oh you used to be a never trumper right like he used to in 2016 i believe he said that trump was dangerous and

and whatever he said. Then he shifted and changed his mind. I don't understand in this country why we call these people flip-floppers and we attack them, where you could be like, wow, why did you change your perspective? Did you get new information? How did, you know, your mindset change around this? And I think that that's actually really interesting. And it says something about fricking Donald Trump about being able to convert some of his political... Donald Trump completed the hero's journey. Donald Trump went, he became president. Surprise.

He then was persecuted by everybody. He was persecuted by the media. He was persecuted by his opponents. He was persecuted by the people inside of his own administration. He was under attack from every single angle. And I would argue he was unprepared and he fell. Think about 2020. How many people were upset with Donald Trump and his views and his thoughts and his policies, his handling of all these things?

They had them. But the hero's journey means you stage a comeback. And if you look at what Donald Trump was able to do over the last 18 months, he befriended most of his enemies. Megyn Kelly went on stage with Donald Trump and said, I'm voting for this man. If people don't remember, Megyn Kelly is the one who asked him the tough question in the debate in 2016, and she got skewered by the Trump supporters and by Trump himself. And he would wake up and just tweet chaos at her every day. He just attacked her day after day after day after day. I've listened to her talking podcasts about it. She's like, my life got turned upside down. I had people coming up to me in the streets. We had to get security. It was insane. to now the hero's journey as he befriends all those enemies. Now, people would say,

did he befriend them or did they want to align themselves with him because of either fear of retribution or they just want clout of some sort? We'll never know. But what we do know is that that hero's journey gets completed. Donald Trump's going back to the White House.

Greatest comeback of political history in the United States. here's why this is important. I don't actually enjoy talking about politics that much, but the vibe shift that is happening in politics does feel different, has a complete and utter impact across society, both investing and also what's going to happen now. So there's two things that I think are really important. Elon Musk, who we recently learned is a top 20 player in the world in Diablo, who also is running Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, Neuralink, the boring company, et cetera, XAI.

He not only put his money where his mouth was, he also went to work. And so he went to Pennsylvania and he figured out in Elon fashion, what are the one or two levers that I can pull that are going to actually deliver Pennsylvania for Donald Trump. It worked. What did he do? He gave away a million dollars per day. And there's a lot of people who say it's illegal. A judge said, no, it's not.

To basically have people sign up for a petition at the America PAC that says, I support the U.S. Constitution. Send a message to Washington. The Constitution is still important. In an environment where we have to sign in an environment where there are multiple people on the left who have recently talked about the fact that the First Amendment is in their way. Tim Walz said on the debate stage that the First Amendment doesn't apply to disinformation or misinformation. You're wrong. It does, because you don't get to decide what is disinformation.

I think before you run for president, you're required to take like a journalism 101 class. Go on. Yeah. And so it goes back to this idea of the American people. They saw both cases and this was decisive. Now, the other thing that Elon did is Elon basically, along with Trump and the campaign, learned from the Democrat Party. So one of the most fascinating parts of politics to me is the marketing. There's two campaigns that are competing with each other for attention. Elon Musk, Trump, and the Trump administration, they got out the vote.

They went. The Amish vote, incredibly important. People forget that the Amish have been being persecuted by the U.S. government because they're doing things with the milk, which sounds insane. But imagine if you're a farmer, you've been farming the same way

through generations and generations, you're not bothering anyone. And the U.S. government shows up and says, you can't do that. You think you're going to like them? Of course not. And so they claim that 150,000 Amish people went to vote in Pennsylvania that usually wouldn't vote. Big deal.

The second thing that they did is they went and they actually provided transportation for people to get to the voting booths. So Democrats historically have done a great job of this. It's not illegal. It's no problem with it. Actually, I would argue that if you're helping people vote, it's a good thing. Yeah, you're providing transportation. but the Republicans usually don't do that. So they've learned from the ground game of the

Democrats. Vice versa, I have never once seen a hat in any city in America for a Democrat candidate until this past weekend. I saw multiple Harris Walls hats walking around the New York City marathon. And I said to myself, they learned from Trump. So both parties are looking at the other party and saying, what works? How do I actually use this to my advantage? Which is what you want in a competition, right? You're supposed to be getting better. You're supposed to be trying to find the edge. Oh, my competitor has an edge there. Let me try to replicate that for myself. So I think that is a very interesting thing. Now, one other thing that I want to talk about around the politics in particular,

is that as a country, we now have a choice. We can continue to get pulled further and further apart from a divisive standpoint. And one side can keep yelling and screaming and saying that the Trump supporters are garbage, that they're racist, they're misogynistic, they're whatever. And the Trump supporters can yell and scream at the other side and say,

you're stupid, you're woke, you're whatever. or collectively we can all decide we literally are a stronger country when we work together in unity and try to come together and say we got big problems on the horizon we gotta fix this stuff or literally our children will grow up in a world where it is harder it is more expensive and it is not as good as we have right now i gotta say uh the vibes do feel different from 2016 and 2020 um and i follow a number of different people on social media i saw one um woman who is on a reality tv show it doesn't matter but she's very very left very left but i was surprised by her reaction to donald trump's win because i thought she would be like how could this happen we live in

but what she she said she came on video and she said guys whether you like it or not we're all in this together. So we can yell and scream that whatever, but more than half the country voted for him. So we have to kind of come together and figure it out. And I think like, I hope that that's the sentiment instead of the Trump voters are garbage or whatever, whatever. I think this is an important point. There's two people that I want to call out and give them kudos. Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci. Both of them campaigned very, very hard for Harris. both of them were very critical of donald trump you would expect them to be sore losers they're competitive people i saw both mark cuban and anthony scaramucci both tweet i think mark

used the word saying trump won fair and square i think scaramucci said something to the fact that you know trump ran a good campaign let's go let's move forward and so he said congrats donald trump you on fair and square congrats to elon musk as well hashtag godspeed and so if you look at people like that you may not like them you may not agree with their politics but respect is due when somebody says i wanted x to happen it didn't happen but i'm still going to participate i'm still going to be supportive congratulate the competitor and move on it's a mature thing to do It's a sophisticated thing to do. And it's what we need more of in this country. So. I have another point that now that the election's over, I can talk about. I take the stance usually I don't like talking about politics in general. I also don't think that it's my responsibility or my place to try to sway other people's vote. So the landslide prediction came true.

As I talked about in private with many of my friends, it's pretty obvious to me this is going to be a big win for him. There's another thing that now that the election is over, we can talk about because we got two or four years, depending on how you look at it, to fix it before we get there. The election system in America is broken. We must fix it. If we want safe, secure, and fair elections,

We have to make a lot of improvements. I don't care which side you vote for. If you go into the ballot box and you do not have confidence that your vote is going to be counted or that the people who are supposed to be voting are voting, that's a big problem. Anthony had a problem with the machine. I'm going to give you three different examples of what I'm talking about. There's a kid who's a student at the University of Michigan. He's a Chinese national.

He voted in the election. How do we know this? Because they realized you're not a U.S. citizen, but you voted. That is illegal. So the authorities came and said, hey, you're not supposed to do that. We'll find out whatever happens to that guy. The problem is that he had already submitted his vote. Once he submitted his vote, they cannot go and find his vote and take it out of circulation. So a guy that we know that illegally voted, his vote still counted. Now, again, this is one thing. It's an anecdote. I'm not saying it's widespread by any means. But obviously, we need to figure out a system where if somebody votes that is not supposed

to vote, we should be able to recapture that or take it out of the count because people need to have confidence. Now, there's good reason why once you put your vote in, somebody can't go and say, well, what did Polina vote? Right. Right. So, again, it's a complex thing. But when you hear a story of somebody voted who wasn't supposed to vote and their vote counts, even though we know that they weren't supposed to vote, big problem.

The second thing is. There is a lot of stupid rules in the voting system, for example, in New York on the ballot. Kamala Harris. Donald Trump. Donald Trump a second time. Kamala Harris a second time. There was four different candidates, but there was really only two people. And so when you go into the ballot box, if you bubble in one of them, your vote counts.

If you said, oh, Donald Trump's here. Well, let me just bubble both of Donald Trump's names or Harris is here twice. Let me bubble both of her names. To be fair, the people working at the, you know, the polling, whatever, the voting station, they they they tell you do not circle both. They didn't tell me. Oh, they didn't tell you. They didn't tell me. So you had a weird experience. So maybe they tell some people, maybe they don't tell everybody.

I don't know. But when I was there, like, for example, a gentleman came up and he was like, nobody told me I had to flip the ballot to vote for the issues. They were like, well, next time. So again, we should make it simple for people along these lines. It is absurd. It is, in my opinion, potentially we should even consider it criminal that there are people who are not running for president who are on the ballots. RFK Jr. dropped out of the race.

Yeah, why is he on some of them? I'm sure there's a good reason. They sued to keep him on the ballot knowing that he had already dropped out. What? So if he's already on a ballot, right, and the ballot's been printed or something, I get it.

Hey, look, there's logistics. There's all stuff. But when he comes and says, I am not running in the presidential race. Take me off the ballot. And you sue to keep him on knowing that he is not actually a candidate for president. That's crazy. Who's suing?

You can decide which side of the political aisle is doing that because they think that it's going to take votes away from the candidates. But how is that allowed? So again, because we have stupid laws. So it goes back to this whole idea of like, rather than look at the current set, we should come up with a bottoms up common sense approach to how do we get people on the ballot? They're supposed to be on the ballot. How do we make it dead simple for people to go in and vote? My third problem, when you go to vote in New York, I can't comment on other places,

but in New York and you put your ballot into the machine, the machine simply tells you your vote has been tallied. What did it tally? Yeah. Everything else. When I go to pay for a $3 pack of gum at the grocery store, it asked me to confirm that it's $3. But when I submit my vote for the president of the United States, he's speaking, this is in New York happening. It doesn't tell me confirm your vote for Harris or your vote for Trump or anything. I have no clue what that machine read. Yeah. When I went up there, the guy was like, just put it in either way. Honestly, crumple it up. If you want to put it in, it goes in. So, with the machines, again, it probably did it right.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I don't know. Do you know, by the way, spoken like someone who has trauma from, do you remember the bubbling in of the SAT? And if you don't do it right and bubble it in right, the machine won't read it. It's like that. Listen, so the point, the reason why I bring this up now is now's the time to do it. because the political party that previously claimed issues, they won. So they can't claim any issues, right? We have a number of years before the next election. And so we have time

to try to design the system in a way that is built for modern times. We shouldn't even spend a second talking about voter ID. It's insane that we do not have to show our ID. I actually, for some reason, I guess I didn't know. I don't know i went in i i gave them my id and the woman seemed offended she was like i don't need that and i was like okay so she just asked me from first three letters of my last name again i'm not claiming there's any issues or anything i'm just saying that it's pretty damn simple to ask for id yeah yeah right we can talk about financial assets let's talk about financial assets what because yesterday anthony was like crazed looking at the computer he was like bitcoin bitcoin and i

I was like, what is going on with Bitcoin? Bitcoin is the global alarm system. It was very clear when it started to run that Trump was going to win. Because we now have the first Bitcoin president. If you put somebody in the White House that says, I am pro-Bitcoin, I'm going to protect your Bitcoin, I'm going to protect your right to self-custody your Bitcoin, I'm going to do things that will be a tailwind for your asset, and I'm going to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin on the United States government's balance sheet, obviously Bitcoin's going to go up.

Let me ask you, is he saying that because it was trendy and he knew he'd get votes, or do you think he actually understands? An age-old question is, do you want a politician that is voted in based on what they believe or based on their willingness to exhibit the will of the people? So take JD Vance as an example. JD Vance gave an interview recently, and he talked about the fact that he very vehemently disagreed with and campaigned on the kind of pro-life position of abortion in Ohio. The people rejected Vance's view and instead voted against him on that specific issue. Yeah. J.D. said, well, that's the will of the people. Right.

The majority of people voted for something that I did not think that we should do. As a politician, as a leader, you're there to represent the people. Yeah. And so it's a delicate balance for a leader to balance between what do I believe and what is the will of the people. Because you are a public servant at the end of the day. You're a public servant. Now, the counter argument to that is we want people who are going to do the right thing, right?

It kind of like in a general description. And so what is the right thing? A lot of times it's going to be like they're going to have to make the decision based on what they believe. Yeah. But there are times where it is explicit what the will of the people is. And so take Bitcoin as an example. Whether Donald Trump believes in Bitcoin or not doesn't matter.

But it's fickle if he doesn't actually believe in it and he's just doing it for the will of the people. how do you know he's not going to reverse his? He might. But what we do know is that the current administration is very abrasive. So just the fact that somebody is willing to talk positively about is already an upgrade. On top of that, I think that he is surrounded with a lot of smart people. Some of them come from the Bitcoin community. Some of them come from outside the Bitcoin community. Some of them are very good finance folks, et cetera. They're all very interested in seeing the asset be successful and financial markets be successful. And so

I wrote this morning and I said, putting a pro-business and a pro-capitalism candidate in the White House should be good for business, right? He's pro-business. And so if we are a strong economic nation, if we are going to be pro-capitalism, you want someone in the office is, who is pro-capitalism. There's a lot of questions based on a lot of decisions that have been made over the last four years on whether the current administration actually believed that stuff or were they participating in programs that were not capitalistic in nature. Just one question. Do you think, what do you think is the first thing he will focus on? the single most important thing for a president early on between now and when they're inaugurated

and then maybe the first you know 30 days or so you got to get the team in place everyone thinks about policies policies are important they campaign on on day one i'm gonna do this i'm gonna do whatever maybe they do maybe they don't but if you want to have longevity over the four years and you want to have a smooth operation you got to get the right people in place i recently read a great book called The Gatekeepers, and it's all about the chief of staffs going back to Nixon's time. And it talks about each chief of staff for the president, what their strengths and weaknesses were, what made them good chief of staffs, what they struggled with, how it affected the president, et cetera. And the best way to describe it is there is two different models

that people look at in governing their team as a leader of the White House. The first is something called a hub and spoke model. The president is in the center, they're the hub, and then there's all these spokes. So you're the economic person, you're the national defense person, you're this person. Everyone has access to the president. And so everyone is constantly bringing information, decisions, right? And so it's a hub and spoke model. All the spokes lead into the hub. There's no kind of filter. It's a much more flat type organization. The consensus is that that is not a good system. Instead, having a really strong chief of staff, a really strong hierarchical structure in the White House is important because they act as a

filter and they say, listen, the only things that make it to the Oval Office are the really big decisions or the really big problems. Everything else we should be able to handle before it gets in that Oval Office. Because if you think about decision fatigue, if you're the president of the United States and you're involved in every single decision of an entire country, there's no way you can have longevity. It's why people look horrible when they leave office and they've aged so much. just so much stress. And so I think that's the first thing is you gotta get the right team in place. The second thing that you've got to do is you've got to get quick wins because if you're able to get momentum, people start to believe that an administration is going to be able to

be effective. The worst thing you can do is not get momentum. And then people start to believe it's kind of a lame duck administration. Like all these people are all just hot air. They're not going to get anything done. Good people don't want to work in that administration. People who are supposed to be engaging with it say it's just not worth even wasting our time here, etc. What could he do to kind of jumpstart the economy and cut costs and all that stuff? Rather than specific policies on that front, I think there's going to be two big questions he's going to face. One of them is how much involvement should the president of the United States have in monetary policy? Donald Trump has previously talked about the fact that maybe the president should be more

involved in monetary policy decisions. The central bank, the Federal Reserve, takes great pride in being independent of politics. Those two ideas are on a crash course to intersect with each other. I don't know who will prevail. Don't you think it's good to have it be independent, though? Independence is good for a lot of reasons. They're very well covered. I don't need to regurgitate them here.

But if you look over the last four years, or really the last two years from 2020 to 2024, the fact that the Fed was increasing interest rates at the fastest rate in history, but the politicians were printing money like idiots. Right, right. I mean, there should be more communication, but... Could be communication, could be less independence, right?

There's an argument for both sides. But I think that is a question that Donald Trump's going to have to answer. It will be highly controversial if the president starts to get involved in monetary policy. But I do think that that is something that is on the horizon. The second thing that on the economy, you have to give people hope. There are a lot of Americans right now who have lost hope.

It's why they're pushing out on the risk curve of investments. It's why they're gambling more. But if you want to give people hope, you have to make life more affordable. You have to make housing more accessible. You have to get wages growing and you have to start increasing GDP. And so one of the ways that you can do that is to tell the private sector, let's go. I predict that we are going to see an economic explosion under Trump for no other reason than he is simply going to pull the friction points away and allow the private sector to just go. deregulation of the energy industry deregulation of the housing industry deregulation of artificial intelligence self-driving cars rockets all this stuff

elon musk was talking about the fact that he literally had to kidnap a seal and test what is the sound impact on the seal's ears seals are cool very nice but do you think that that is worth not being able to create reusable rockets again these are hard problems but deregulation is going to be important and then cutting taxes if you think about the fact that our government takes 20 to 55 percent depending on corporate all the way up to highest individual tax rates from its citizens and still runs a $2 trillion deficit

with massive government waste, that's insane. That is bureaucracy. That is inefficiency. That is waste. And I would argue that the American people are demanding better.

And that's why Donald Trump's going back to the White House. Now, let me ask you this. with big expectations comes big responsibility and also big pressure do you actually think that donald trump will be able to execute on all the things that he's promised the american people no i don't think any president can i don't think that any president percent percentages are all laid up, right? Most. I think that presidents go into a presidency and they say, I'm going to do one, two, three, four, five things, 10 things, 20 things, 50 things, whatever the number is.

And two things happen. They get some of it done. People celebrate. They don't get a lot of it done. And people critique them. And they say we ran out of time. They say we ran out of time. I mean, think of George W. Bush. He goes into office. He's not predicting September 11th. He's not predicting the global financial crisis leaving office, right?

So things come up. You're the president of the United States. You got all this stuff you gotta deal with. And so it's a very complex job. And I think that we as individual citizens, we love the yell and scream, make it black and white and be like, oh, you're so stupid. Why don't you do whatever?

But remember, I think it was Obama campaigned on shutting down Guantanamo Bay. It's still there. Well, you get into office and then you start learning more. That's the other thing. Trump has an advantage in that he's already been the president before. So he has a lot more information than somebody who's coming in as, you know, not having been the president or vice president.

So both of these candidates were going to have somewhat of an advantage because they had, you know, some information. The other thing that I think is going to happen is that the stock market is going to take off. So Bitcoin hit an all-time high. I think Bitcoin is going much higher. I think the stocks are going much higher. And when that happens, a large portion of the population has investment.

If you have investable assets, you're going to get wealthier. Right. And so those people are going to have more money. That money is going to move around the economy. And so what you're going to see is you're going to see businesses doing better. You're going to see wages going up. You're going to see inflation hopefully coming down, but is a big asterisk. Unemployment.

All these things. Do you think, though, that this bull market was bound to happen regardless of who was president? I think that the long-term trend in financial assets in America is up and to the right. Whether that is stocks, Bitcoin, real estate, commodities, et cetera, the dollar is going to get devalued. I do think that Donald Trump is perceived as much better for financial assets. And so that's where you're seeing stocks rip. If Harris had won, I think you would have seen financial assets go down in the short term. The question if Harris had become president is what policies actually would have been enacted. If you enact unrealized capital gains tax, yeah, you're gonna hurt a lot

of stuff. If you don't do that, then maybe she wouldn't have been that bad. You know, one of the things is the stock market has done just fine under Joe Biden, right? Actually, if you look this year, this S&P 500, this is the single best performance of the S&P 500 since 1936. Did not know that. Now, you can argue that some of it is Biden's overseeing this great economy, which, okay, he gets some credit, but not all the credit. You could argue that artificial intelligence and kind of this boom technology shift has helped. You could argue that the businesses are getting more efficient,

so they should be more valuable in terms of Facebook, Amazon, Meta, et cetera. And then you also could argue that the stock market is going up in anticipation of Donald Trump becoming president. So the beauty of finance and what makes it so intellectually stimulating for so many people is you can't put your finger on any one thing. You have to start to understand stuff. And so people may say, why are we spending so much time on politics? Well, because macroeconomics, the political landscape, financial assets, the individual beliefs of people in a society, all of that feeds into how does capital get allocated and where are returns captured? If you think about the loss of trust in the mainstream media is one of the reasons why

Bitcoin is winning. They don't seem connected, but the loss of trust in the mainstream media is extended to a loss of trust in institutions. And so you can draw a dotted line between a loss of trust in the mainstream media to a loss of trust in the Federal Reserve. And so people say, oh, wait a second, this is not going to work for me. Let me go store value and save in this other asset. And so those are the types of things that as an investor, it's kind of like the 101 is just like stock go up or down. 201, you say, will stock go up and down because of things related to this company. But when you get into the more sophisticated levels of analysis, it's trying to understand if Donald Trump becomes president, what is the monetary policy changes we're going

And how is China affected by that? Because if China now thinks that they're in a competition to devalue their currency against the dollar, then all of a sudden, they're going to pump liquidity, they're going to drop interest rates, that's going to bring more global liquidity, which will then flow into financial assets. And so actually, China's monetary policy is more important than the US. Those are the things that people I think at the highest levels of finance are trying to figure out right now. so someone one of the viewers um tweeted at us a video from 2020 it was election night 2020 and you said something interesting which i think you should maybe repeat for the people who are you know either voted for trump or didn't vote for trump and they're expecting you know sunshine and roses or just complete gloom i don't remember what i said oh Oh, my God. You said personal responsibility. It does not matter. 100%. I mean, look, I talk about all this stuff. I pay attention to this stuff because it has an impact in terms of financial portfolio. I've said it over and over again that your local

city council is probably more important than who the president is for housing affordability, things like that. I think that who the Federal Reserve Chairman is more important than who the president is for your financial portfolio. But if you want a better life, remember that story about J.D. Vance, you are responsible for the outcome. No one is coming to save you. The government's not coming to save you. Your friends aren't coming to save you. Nobody. Because J.D. grew up under multiple administrations, whether they were Democrat or Republican. J.D. Vance changed his life by making two or three decisions. They were big decisions. He probably didn't know what they would lead to, but he was able to change his life. And so

So some people are born into great environments. Some people are born into not so great environments. Some people have the deck stacked in their favor. Some have them deck stacked against them. But I know a lot of kids who are born in great environments, the deck stacked in their favor, and they are not exactly the type of kid that I want my kids to grow up to be. if that was my kid, I wouldn't be proud of the outcome. And so sometimes being born in those environments can actually be detrimental, right? We have a friend who once told us he's incredible, a multi-billionaire, very nice guy. But at dinner, Flynn and I were sitting with him and his wife, and we said, how did you raise your kids so that they weren't screwed up? And he looked at me dead square in the eye. And he said, they are screwed up. My kids have never flown on a commercial flight. And I remember he said, they've never seen the inside of a commercial airplane or something like that. And he said it and he wasn't flexing. He was saying, I made a trade off and it

probably screwed my kids up. Right. And so it goes back to this idea that like, there are plenty of issues on that side but that's not most americans most americans don't have the luxury of being screwed up from abundance right they have the problem of they don't have enough money they don't have enough time they don't have enough opportunity right and that's what they're trying to figure out and so those people feel like they have to claw their way up yeah and if that is you the single most important thing that you start to realize is that no one's coming to save you you are responsible. You have agency. It is up to you to get the outcome out of life. Your actions determine that. No one can help with where you start, but the individuals can

actually go and they can make a difference. And one of the things that I think is just so important is America is probably the greatest opportunity for economic mobility. How many times have we seen people who have gone from, I have nothing to I have a lot. One of my favorites which is the CEO of Palantir. I don't know if you've ever seen this. He doesn't have a driver's license. And they asked him once, why don't you have a driver's license?

And he said, well, when I was growing up, I was too poor to have a car. And then very quickly, I became too rich to drive myself. That's only possible in America, right? There are very few places in the world where you can go from, I'm too poor to have a car

to I'm too rich to drive myself. and so again is that an outlier situation of course but that direction of economic mobility is available for anyone who's willing to work yeah and who has the agency to go and act and of course yes like that's the extremes but i do think that the extremes provide hope because if you live in a place that's not a democracy you don't see that there is no hope for you to achieve something you've never seen. So I personally, as an immigrant, am very happy we live in America. Speaking of immigrants, I know somebody who recently came to me and said, hey, my girlfriend, who has a college degree here in the United States, had to move back to India.

And I said to him, I said, why? And he said, her visa right now. And I got to say, I've always been pretty uneasy with this idea that like we send talented people who are here on visas back to their countries for no reason other than bureaucracy. Well, and immigration laws and. Of course. But like, why is that person going back? Right. but i gotta say hearing that story while walking down a street in new york city and seeing hundreds per week of people who came here illegally by just walking across the border

that's that's a tough one how is it that the people who can contribute the most they're the most educated the most skilled etc we kicking them out at the same time we have a border that's wide open and millions of people are pouring across well i think immigration reform is something that should be on every president's agenda um but yeah i agree i think i think it's tough all right let's do prediction time real quick okay and just before we do that i want to give a shout out we went to the World Series. It was very fun. And we were standing, actually, Anthony was standing in line for popcorn because he loves popcorn. And someone came up to us and he said, hi, my name's Jamie. I watched the show. I bought Bitcoin. I converted my mom into a Bitcoin

believer. And I just had a really pleasant time chatting with Jamie. And thank you for watching. Um, I, uh, because I'm a masochist went to all three New York Yankees, uh, baseball games, the world series are played here in Yankee stadium. And, um, every single game, somebody came up to me and talked about Bitcoin or finance or whatever. It is probably the most fun thing that happens to me on a daily basis, because again, going back to where we started. How did I know that the Trump landslide was going to happen? Because I talked to a lot of people. I talked to the doorman. I talked to the cab driver. I talked to the cashier at the store. I talked to the person sitting next to me at lunch.

He talks to everyone ad nauseum. Like in the elevator, he'll be like, hey, please stop. I want information. I want sentiment. I need the signal from all these people. I need different walks of life. I need different backgrounds. I need different education levels. I need different locations. The more that I can gather that information, the better you have an understanding where the world is going and where it is. And so when I'm walking around at the game, literally the first night that I went, I was standing in the bleachers. That's the best place to watch the game. Bleacher creature. And a guy tapped me on the shoulder. I believe his name was Manny, if I remember correctly. And he said, yo, are you? And I said, yeah, yes.

Oh yeah. And then on the subway. And I said to him, and I said, you into Bitcoin? He said, yeah, I bought some in 2016. I said, did you sell it? He goes, no. I said, that must be why you're at the World Series game. He said, yeah. Right. And so again, then we started talking about what he does and how he learned about it and what else he's buying and like all this stuff and just you're getting information. And so I say all that because if you ever see me anywhere, if you see me in the streets, if you see me at a conference, if you see me at the airport, whatever, come up to me and let's talk. But if somehow people only come up to us when we're arguing in the street,

just walking around Central Park, and I'm like, oh, you didn't do this, you didn't do that. No, most guys know. And then they interrupt our argument and I have to pretend to be nice to you. It's a whole thing. Most, most men know when somebody, they see, they see, they see me walking, you know, stoically, just eyes locked forward. No, no issues. And you just eating my ear away with whatever the latest complaint about my actions are. Cause I am a perfect angel. And men see that situation and they say i'm on my own hero's journey let me go save him and they interrupt to remind you how fortunate you are right thank you to be with such a cool guy right and then i have to tell them

hey man thanks i pre you know a little fist bump thanks for bailing me out there yeah yeah yeah um it has happened multiple times and and he's never mad at me and it never happens because i am a perfect angel and i do nothing wrong ever um what what are we place to end what are we predicting you wanted to predict um at the end of trump's presidency three things does he make it to the end what 78 years old oh i think yes i think he meant like assassin his energy level is he unrivaled. Yeah. 63 days straight campaigning. I'm 36 years old. I work pretty hard. I work all day long, every day. Respect. Hat tip to that guy. I think he makes it. I definitely think he makes it. Two, is he able to, quote unquote, turn around the economy in terms of get inflation down,

make housing more affordable, wages up, GDP growth, etc.? Outside of unforeseen circumstances, like something happening, like a virus or a war or something? I think so. Yes, but the only thing that I think he's got to be very careful of is the inflation. A lot of his policies, everything will get this thing rocking, stock market's all-time high, ready to rock and roll. The only thing you got to worry about is the inflation. So I think yes, but got to solve the inflation problem the third thing is is the vibe shift eternal in the country we were headed down a road that looked a lot like a totalitarian state that looked a lot like a divergence from capitalism to something else that looked a lot like a porous border unsafe daily living for many people

people, economic pain, et cetera. Is this the inflection point that puts us back on the right path? I think that in four years, we're not even going to recognize the Republican and Democratic party. Both parties. Both parties. I think we're going to be like, whoa, this is a complete reversal or reshaping of what we thought. I think somehow, I think the United States So we'll become more united. And then it won't be as insane to tell your friends or family, hey, I voted Republican or I voted Democrat. What do you think?

I think that the vibe shift is real. But I also think that Bitcoin will be higher in four years than it is today. I'm not going to ask you to make a price prediction because- I don't know what the price is going to be. I know. But I do think that the price will be higher than it is today. And for most people who are watching this- My dad will be very happy to hear this.

Yeah. For most people who are watching this, that signals that their investment portfolio is going to do very well in the next four years. Yeah. All right, guys. Thanks so much for watching. What's up, guys? I hope you're enjoying this episode, but I got a quick message for you. I just released my very first book. It's called How to Live an Extraordinary Life. In this book, there are 65 life lessons that I've picked up over the years. These lessons will teach you about money, investing, relationships, work, health, happiness and much more in this book i wrote letters to each one of my children and i tried to share those life lessons with them if you pick up this book there's three things that i can

promise you the first is that it is very concise the audio book is only three hours you can listen to it on a long drive or on a rainy afternoon the second thing is that you're going to learn something it's worth the price of admission just for the lessons themselves and then the third thing is it will make you think more deeply about your life and how you try to live it so go pick up how to live an extraordinary life today it's a quick read it's very impactful it's very concise and it would mean the world to me for the support go check it out today on amazon barnes and noble or wherever you buy your books hardcover audiobook it all works thank you so much for the support and i'd love to hear what you think about the new book