The Pomp Podcast - #1435 Anthony Pompliano | Bitcoin All-Time High Signals BULL RUN!

Episode Date: November 11, 2024

Anthony Pompliano records a solo episode as bitcoin smashes through $80,000. He explains how we got here, and personal thoughts on where we are going.  ======================= Xapo Bank, the world’s first fully licensed Bitcoin-enabled bank, offers military-grade security with an unmatched blend of physical and digital security, as well as pioneering regulatory oversight, so your funds are always protected. Beyond secure storage, they enable you to grow and use your Bitcoin. Earn daily interest in Bitcoin, spend with zero FX fees using a global card, and make instant payments via the Lightning Network for unrivalled access and convenience. Visit ⁠⁠⁠https://www.xapobank.com/pomp⁠⁠⁠ to join. ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat

any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Today's episode is brought to you by Zappo. picture this every time you trade bitcoin the spread determines how much value stays with you that's why securing top tier bitcoin trading fees is key to growing your bitcoin wealth but what if i told you that there's a platform that lets you save up to 90 percent on your bitcoin trading fees now here's the kicker not only do they save that money they also are dubbed the fort knox of bitcoin zappo bank they're the world's first fully licensed and regulated bitcoin

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That's X-A-P-O-B-A-N-K dot com slash POM. Bitcoin could only go higher and higher and higher. But the Federal Reserve had a completely different idea. They came out and they said, things are too frothy. We think that inflation is going to end up being a problem. And so we are going to start to raise interest rates. Interest rates at the time were 0%, but the Fed then went on an absolute adventure. They raised interest rates from 0% to over 5% at the fastest pace in history. We had never seen anything like this before. And when capital gets more expensive in the market, investors get scared. And that's exactly what happened.

Investors started to sell everything. They sold off their stocks, they sold off their Bitcoin, and they sold off anything with a liquid market. Both stocks, bonds, and crypto all went down when the Fed started to hike interest rates. 2022 was a bruising year. It wasn't fun, and nobody was celebrating. And then towards the end of 2022, we got the final capitulation. FTX went down along with other firms, and we saw Bitcoin puke all the way down to $17,000.

In less than one year, we went from $69,000 down to $17,000. That type of volatility usually shakes anyone out of their position, but not the Bitcoiners. The Bitcoiners are trained to buy and hold. It doesn't matter if the price goes up hundreds of percent or the price drops 80 or 90 percent. Bitcoiners continue to accumulate Bitcoin and they do not sell. You can see this in the on-chain data. And so at $17,000, Bitcoiners were just as strong-handed as they were at $69,000. And from there, it was up only.

We continued to grind up all throughout 2023. Now, what became most interesting was in the second half of 2023, a brand new narrative presented itself, the Bitcoin ETF. If the government was going to approve the Bitcoin ETFs, the promise was that billions of dollars would flood into the market and Bitcoin's price would go up. Going into that Bitcoin ETF approval in January of 2024, Bitcoin was trading around $40,000.

Now, remember, we bottomed at $17,000 and we were already back to $40,000 when the ETFs got approved. And once those ETFs got approved, capital poured in from around the world. Once that capital started to pour in, we saw Bitcoin go from $40,000 to $60,000 very quickly. It's a 50% gain off of a single product being launched in the financial world. But those ETFs were the single greatest ETF launch in history. We have now seen tens of billions of dollars from people around the world trying to buy Bitcoin in the traditional industry.

And so those Bitcoin ETFs have continued to help Bitcoin's price grind higher and higher and higher. Going into the end of 2024, we sat there with a little bit of a conundrum. We had two candidates, Trump and Harris, who both had different views of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. currencies. Everyone wanted to see, will Bitcoin's price go up or down based on the election? There was plenty of rumors that this was going to be a buy the rumor, sell the news event. But instead, Donald Trump was elected in a landslide victory. He not only won the electoral college, he won the popular vote, and the Republicans won the House and the Senate as well. That type of landslide gives a mandate to an administration to go and implement the policies

that they ran on. And one of the policies that Donald Trump ran on was to be the first pro Bitcoin candidate. He said he would protect Bitcoin. He would protect Bitcoiners right to hold Bitcoin in self-custody. And he said that he would create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin for the United States on its balance sheet. The market believes Donald Trump because as soon as Donald Trump was elected, Bitcoin took off. We have seen Bitcoin go from about $70,000 to this morning breaking $82,000. Now, why is $82,000 such an important number? Not only does it serve as a brand new all-time high, which is plenty important and will get tons of press coverage, that press coverage will lead to more eyeballs. Those eyeballs will lead to word of mouth. Word of mouth will

lead to more capital. And so Bitcoin becomes a reflexive asset. The higher it goes, the less risky it is. The less risky it is, the more capital that comes in. The more capital that comes in, the higher the price goes. But $80,000 was a really big point for us to breach. Why? Well, if we go back to 2021, the high of $69,000 was in 2021 dollar terms. We've had a lot of inflation since then. And so $69,000 in 2021 is the equivalent of $80,000 in 2024. So going above that $80,000 mark recently meant that Bitcoin now has set a new all-time high in inflation-adjusted terms. So not only did we get it in nominal terms, but we also now have a new Bitcoin all-time high in inflation-adjusted terms, which means that Bitcoin is winning. And so when you add up the

fact that Bitcoin is at $82,000, it's the front page story on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and every other financial media outlet. And we set a new all-time high in inflation-adjusted metrics, that means that Wall Street is paying attention. Now, it's not just a Wall Street story, though. If you look at the charts, the chart looks really nice. There are people saying online that it's the best chart on the planet. You see all the technicians pointing to a bunch of lines they've drawn on the chart that simply says Bitcoin is going higher. But we also have rumors circulating that there is a nation state that is buying tons of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey has come out and said that he is aware of a nation state that has already acquired enough Bitcoin

to be a top five holder globally, but that the country is not known. Nobody knows yet that they own Bitcoin. I don't know who they are, but if it comes out that somebody has acquired hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin, that obviously will get people's attention. And then if you take all of that and you put it together, we now are starting to see a number of different financial advisors reach out to their constituents and their clients and say, we are going to buy 1%, 2% in your portfolio. One financial advisor said, we're going to do it for every client. If you don't want us to do it, let us know by Monday morning, or we're going to put a 1% position on. And so now what we are seeing is the story that Bitcoiners have been saying for a long time. We saw the bottom up

adoption story where individuals first started to buy Bitcoin. They realized that Bitcoin could protect their purchasing power. It could store their economic value. And then we began to see corporations and financial institutions. Once those financial institutions started to get involved, it was very clear that they were going to bring tens of billions of dollars into a market. Bitcoin's current market cap is about a trillion and a half, but it seems like it is going to go much, much higher. And so the final boss is going to be the nation states and the sovereign wealth funds. We already know a number of countries hold Bitcoin. They hold Bitcoin usually because they seized it. There are countries like El Salvador that are actually buying up Bitcoin

or Bhutan, which is mining Bitcoin. But there has not been a large developed nation that has come out and explicitly stated, here's our Bitcoin strategy. We are going to put Bitcoin in our reserves, and we are going to continue to accumulate the asset. When that domino falls, the Bitcoiners can claim victory. They took an asset that literally started on an email list in 2009 for the cypherpunk community, and they brought it all the way to the nation states. Memes are the narrative in today's world, and Bitcoin is the world's greatest meme. It is a story that resonates with billions of people around the world. It is a meme that has virality, that once you buy Bitcoin, you join Bitcoin's marketing team.

You go and you tell your friends. And there is no greater marketing campaign for Bitcoin than when the price goes up. And so Bitcoin going to $82,000 and having so many people that now hold Bitcoin, those people will go and tell their friends. The beauty of all-time highs is that every single person who has ever bought Bitcoin and held it to today is now in profit. They have a positive story to share with friends. One of those times that they are going to share that story with their friends

is at Thanksgiving. This is a highly underrated point in the market. When you have people who go and they're at work or at school and they come back home and then they mix with all of their old friends, their family, and others, That is one of the most viral word-of-mouth moments in American culture. People talk about the things they're interested in at Thanksgiving. They see people that they haven't seen in a long time.

And so sometimes consumer apps, they end up accelerating in growth during Thanksgiving. But Bitcoin is the same thing. We've all had conversations with our friends during the holidays. There are people who don't know anything about Bitcoin. There are people who know that you're into Bitcoin and they want to learn more. Or there are people who may hold Bitcoin and they simply want to understand where you think the price is going. But going into the holidays with Bitcoin running higher means that this will be a conversation that families and friends are having. That word of mouth will spread.

As word of mouth spreads, it will lead to more capital flowing in. Now, don't forget that on top of all of this, which is quite bullish, we also have the Bitcoin ETF options, which should be coming live here in the next couple of weeks. When those options are created, it will give people the ability to go levered long on the ETFs. My guess is that there's a lot of people on Wall Street who see the volatility of Bitcoin and they say to themselves, I want to be extra long that asset. Now, what's fascinating about the Bitcoin market and Wall Street is that while Bitcoin was running all weekend long, it was going up thousands of dollars per coin. Wall Street was sitting on the sideline.

If you can only invest via the ETF, that means that you are susceptible to the hours of operations of the stock market. And so since the market closed on Friday, investors were not able to invest again until Monday. There was a massive dislocation. Bitcoin's price was much higher. And so those investors walked into their offices on Monday morning, scrambling to try to catch up and buy more Bitcoin.

That is the beauty of having an asset that trades 24-7, 365 days a year. Bitcoin does not care who holds it. Bitcoin does not care who's investing in it. Bitcoin does not care who the president is. Bitcoin simply continues to produce block after block after block of transactions. It is doing what it is designed to do. Remember, we had the Bitcoin halving in 2024. We had that supply shock.

That supply shock meant 50% less Bitcoin coming into the market on a daily basis. But now we are starting to feel the effects of the demand shock. Wall Street is at the gate. They are pounding on the gate and they want more Bitcoin. Whether it is public companies buying Bitcoin, whether it is BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and others trying to suck up as much Bitcoin as they can into their ETFs,

or it is traders trying to trade around this asset, capital and Bitcoin are going to find each other because Bitcoin is a macro asset that is highly sensitive to interest rates getting cut and the money supply growing. And if we are in an environment like we are today, where Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have now done two interest rate cuts of 75 total basis points and likely to do another 25 in December, that means that cheap capital is coming into the market.

Add in the fact that China is also stimulating their economy and M2 global money supply is expanding. These conditions are rocket fuel for Bitcoin. My expectation is that we can look at 2020 and 2021 as a blueprint for what is going to happen. I promised you that I was going to tell you what my view of this market is, and here we go. If we go back to 2020, you can see that going into early November, Bitcoin was trading around

$15,000. By March of 2021, five months later, Bitcoin had gone from $15,000 to over $60,000. That is a massive appreciation in just five short months. I believe that we are going to see a similar run. It may not be hundreds of percent because Bitcoin, the asset in the market cap are much larger now. But I do believe that Bitcoin is going to get a very strong bid going into the end of the year and into Q1 of 2025.

There are too many institutions, too many nation states and too many individuals who now are participating in the global accumulation race. They all want Bitcoin, but there's only 21 million that will ever be available. If you also take into account how many have been lost, there's even less available for people in the market. Then add in the fact that two out of every three Bitcoin have not moved in the last year and one out of every two Bitcoin has not moved in the last two years. Bitcoiners who are holding the asset do not want to sell.

And so you have a small pool of only a couple million Bitcoin that are actually available in the circulating supply. With all this new capital coming in, I expect Bitcoin to continue on the current trend. Sideways summer is over, we have broken out of the hibernation, and Bitcoin is on the move. When Bitcoin moves, the world pays attention, and that's exactly what we're seeing now. So it should be a couple of fun months, but one word of caution to all the Bitcoiners. Just because somebody was anti-Bitcoin or sat it out until now, please treat them with kindness, please treat them with grace.

All of us started our journey knowing nothing, and we did the work to get educated and eventually became a Bitcoiner. The same thing is true for a whole new class of people that are coming into the market right now. Some of them previously thought Bitcoin was worthless. Some of them thought the government was gonna shut it down.

Some of them believed the mainstream critiques, which are inaccurate, things like that the fact that energy usage was too high or that there was some sort of regulatory burden. Regardless of why somebody was not a Bitcoiner before, the beauty of Bitcoin is that we should welcome everyone into this community. And so be kind, be gracious, and take the time to educate these people. Somebody did it for you, and so pass it on to somebody else.

The more Bitcoiners we have in this world, not only is it good for the price of Bitcoin, but I personally believe it is good for the world. Why? It's because Bitcoiners have a very specific view of the world. They look at the world through a lens. where technology can solve problems, that the future is brighter than the past,

that simply allowing an individual to store their economic value and not have it debased away by their government can lift people into a better financial position. It can help to close the wealth inequality gap and it can actually be a root solution to so many problems across society. The Bitcoiners who have been around for a long time,

they've been proven right. Bitcoin's price is the ultimate referee. When it goes up, it lands the verdict of accuracy to the Bitcoiners. But that does not mean that we should celebrate. There is still a lot of work to do. We still have to continue to educate people. We still have to continue to build out the network. We still have to continue to make sure that the network is secure.

And we still have to make sure that many other organizations and groups, companies, nation states, and sovereign wealth funds who yet do not own Bitcoin that they get to the point where they allocate as well. Bitcoin is a story that will take decades to play out. It's exciting to see Bitcoin working, but the story is not over. And that gets me excited

because it means that the best days of Bitcoin are ahead of us. Thank you so much for watching this video. Please share this with your friends and family. The more people that watch this channel, the better off we are because it means we can educate more people

about Bitcoin I love you all and I'll see you guys next time