The Pomp Podcast - #1445 Anthony Pompliano | What Happens When Bitcoin Hits $100,000?!

Episode Date: November 29, 2024

Anthony Pompliano records a solo episode explaining what happens when bitcoin hits $100,000. Topics include long-term thinking, hashrate all-time highs, long-term holders with conviction, historical trends, drawdowns, investing strategies, US government, and future outlook as bitcoin price rises. ======================= Bitkey, built by the team behind Square and Cash App, makes bitcoin self-custody easy and secure. Compare prices across exchanges, send and receive bitcoin, and track your wallet—all in one app. Named a Time Best Invention of 2024, Bitkey’s three-key system replaces seed phrases for simplicity. Get it now for $99—$51 off. Order at Amazon, Best Buy, or ⁠⁠⁠bitkey.world⁠⁠⁠. ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat

any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Today's episode is brought to you by BitKey. They are the hardware wallet built for Bitcoin. They're made by the team behind Square and Cash App. BitKey makes securely managing your Bitcoin absurdly simple. BitKey is integrated with partners like Cash App, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Blockchain.com, so you can easily compare prices across exchanges before you buy or sell.

And their app works like the money apps you already use, because simplicity is the best form of security. Send, receive, and track your wallet value over time, all in one place. Time Magazine named BitKey one of the best inventions of 2024. Their simple three-key approach to self-custody replaces complex features like seed phrases that make traditional wallets hard to use and easy to lose. Give the gift of simplified self-custody to the Bitcoin person in your life. And if that's you, get BitKey and sit back and relax while the sats stack. For a limited time, you can get BitKey for $99.

That's $51 off the normal price. Get yours today online at Amazon, Best Buy, or BitKey.world. That's B-I-T-K-E-Y.world. Go check out BitKey today and start securely managing your Bitcoin in an absurdly simple way. seemed like it was all for naught. But now fast forward two years later, and it is like Bitcoin has risen from the dead. And now we are up more than 500% since we saw that massive decline in 2022. And so the big lesson to me out of this entire situation is that Bitcoin teaches long term thinking. Whenever you have an asset that trades in the market, you're going to see times

of enthusiasm and you're going to see times of fear. But the key part to any investor is that you simply have to remain calm regardless of the environment. Bitcoin was at 16,000 and Bitcoin is at 100,000 now. Both of those different environments, Bitcoin is the same asset. It produces block after block after block of transactions. And now you as an investor, if you were holding at 16,000, you get to celebrate at nearly 100,000, but you still have to make sure that you don't get too enthusiastic. Having a calm mind is a competitive advantage when investing in highly volatile assets like Bitcoin. Now, what's most interesting to me is that Bitcoin is actually stronger today than it was when Bitcoin was at 16,000. We see hash rate has continued to grow

and is near all-time highs. We know that two out of every three Bitcoin haven't moved in the last year and one out of two Bitcoin haven't moved in the last two years. That means that one out of every two Bitcoin that was being held at 16,000 is still being held today by the same person. That is deep conviction, and that means that people aren't selling, even though the asset has appreciated significantly. Now, the reason why that's important is that's the two-year time frame. But if you go and you take a look at what we've seen just over the last week or so, we saw Bitcoin start November at $69,000 on November 1st.

It then rose all the way up to $99,000 in about three weeks. That rapid appreciation of almost 50% caught everyone's attention. But then Bitcoin sold off to about $90,000. and there was panic and fear all over the internet. I'll never understand why everyone gets so worried because the price dropped to prices not seen a week before. But the beauty is, here we are on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Prices are right back to $98,000, $99,000.

That was a one-week bear market. Congratulations, you all survived the Thanksgiving 2024 massacre. But the funny part about this entire thing is that this story is never going to end. Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin goes down. But over the long run, the trend is up and to the right. If you are new to holding Bitcoin, it is incredibly important that you learn to deal with the volatility. Bitcoin rewards people who have a long time horizon.

It doesn't matter what the day-to-day, week-to-week, or month-to-month price movements are. The thing that matters the most is do you understand Bitcoin? Have you done the work? Have you read the Bitcoin white paper? Have you gone and put in the hours to actually study the asset, study monetary history, understand the technology, and realize what this asset has the potential to do? There are very few assets in the world that can steal mindshare from people at this scale for this long.

Usually, if a stock becomes hot, people go and learn a little bit about it. Maybe they buy it. Maybe they sell it. But it doesn't take over their life. Bitcoin is a different type of asset. Once you begin to understand Bitcoin, you look at the world very differently. You start to understand things in the food supply system. You begin to understand things about the legacy political system.

And you begin to understand things about the monetary system that you previously did not understand. That is the beauty of an asset that only comes around once in a lifetime. And so ultimately, when I see Bitcoin oscillating up and down, all I keep telling myself is those are all short-term traders trying to figure out where they think the price is going to go in the next few hours. But the people that I know with deep conviction, they buy Bitcoin and they buy it over and over and over again, their dollar cost averaging into a great asset.

And just as Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger would say, buying a great asset and holding it forever is a fantastic investment strategy. I tend to think that Bitcoin is going to end up being one of those assets. And so do hundreds of millions of people around the world. Now, here's what I think becomes really interesting is that we previously saw Bitcoin run up to a thousand. We previously saw Bitcoin run up to 10,000, both in the month of November in their respective years.

Obviously, Bitcoin now is trying to break 100,000 in the month of November in their respective year. And so even though I think that Bitcoin will consolidate here and has to eat through this cell wall right below 100,000, once we break 100,000, I do believe that that big round beautiful number will serve as a catalyst because it will grab even more people's attention. The media will go out and spread the word and more people will come in and start to buy Bitcoin. But the beauty of Bitcoin is that the higher the price goes, the less risky it becomes.

The larger pools of capital begin to buy it. You have Fidelity out there saying they believe that investors should put up to two and a half percent of their portfolio into Bitcoin. And I know that there are public pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and many others who have been watching Bitcoin. And now as we breach that 100,000 number, it will likely become an asset that they start to add to their portfolio. If that is to occur, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to rise.

We are in a bull market. It's very clear. And so as we go up, how high we can go, I have no clue. But what I do know is that there will continue to be 30% drawdowns, 20% drawdowns along the way. In 2017, Bitcoin went from 1,000 to 20,000, a 20x in a single year. But along the way, there was over five different 30% drawdowns. That type of volatility is not common in traditional assets.

But if you want the return, then you have to deal with the volatility. And so ultimately, what I want you to do is I want you to be prepared, both mentally and emotionally. Understand that if Bitcoin is going to go up, it's going to also draw down along the way. Do not get scared when Bitcoin drops 5, 10, 15, 20, 30%. Instead, understand the asset that you own. Have made sure you've done that work. On top of that, dollar cost averaging is one of these great investment strategies that

has worked forever. I've looked at the data, and if you had actually started dollar cost averaging back at the top of the 2021 market and dollar cost averaged your way all the way through the bear market, you would have been in profit even though the price had drawn down so significantly. That's the beauty of dollar cost averaging. And so ultimately, what I think we are going to see here is I think we're going to see Donald Trump and his new administration go into office.

I do believe the first thing that they will say is that we are not going to sell any of the Bitcoin that we currently have in the government's ownership. And then on top of that, I think that we are also going to see a plan put in place for the United States government to start to buy more Bitcoin. That will kick off a global FOMO

where all of these different countries, these sovereign wealth funds, and various large entities around the world, they also will start to buy Bitcoin. If the country of Bhutan can put a billion dollars on their balance sheet, the country of the United States should be able to put tens of billions of dollars.

This is ultimately a game of 21 million Bitcoin. There is some percentage that has been lost. And so if it's 10%, that means that there's less than 20 million Bitcoin that will ever be available. And I know a lot of people who own a lot of Bitcoin and they're not selling. And so ultimately, maybe it's 50% of the market

is actually available for sale. That means that the United States got a lot of work to do to be able to get hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Bitcoin. On top of that, we see companies like MicroStrategy buying up billions of dollars of Bitcoin per week now. That idea wasn't even possible a couple of years ago. Add in the fact that there are many other companies

around the world that are copying the MicroStrategy playbook. Why wouldn't they? It's working. And so naturally, they're going to also want to get a financial return. You have Metaplanet in Japan. You have Similar Scientific here in the United States. You have companies like DeFi Technologies in Canada. And then you've got many different miners all around the country where you've got things like Hut8. You've got Marathon and others that are all saying to themselves, we should go and stack Bitcoin on our balance sheet. Bitcoin is an asset that has infiltrated personal balance sheets.

Individuals hold it. Now you have financial institutions offering ETFs, and then you have companies that are putting it on their balance sheet. But there is one more thing that people aren't talking about yet that I think is coming fast and furious to financial markets. Bitcoin is going to become a creative tool. You're going to see Bitcoin enter into all kinds of different financial products. Why is it that only the real estate investors who are now publicly talking about it on CNBC

and elsewhere where they say, we want to offer a real estate investment fund, but we also want to put some Bitcoin into that fund. Why would that not come to other areas? Of course, there's going to be commodities plus Bitcoin. There's going to be fixed income plus Bitcoin. Bitcoin is going to become a tool that is going to get put into all of these other strategies. Bitcoin is a very unique asset. And I think that it is going to end up being something that everyone wants exposure to. If you don't believe me, just look at the bond market. MicroStrategy figured out a way to go ahead and offer the convertible bonds that gave people exposure to Bitcoin.

If you run a debt fund, how the heck are you supposed to get exposure to Bitcoin? Well, now you could. And obviously, there has been immense demand. And so I think that that is going to continue. The pricing of that asset used to be measured in hundreds of dollars, then thousands of dollars, eventually tens of thousands of dollars. And we are on the precipice of it being measured in six figures. This is an incredible time

to be watching all of this happen. I believe we are witnessing history and ultimately I am so thankful on this Thanksgiving week to be doing this with all of you. I appreciate all the support. I appreciate all of you watching all of the videos and I appreciate all of the learning

that you have provided to me. This is an amazing time and I just want to say thank you. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel, like this video, send it to your friends and I'll see you all in the next couple of weeks. Thank you.