The Pomp Podcast - #1496 Darius Dale | Trump Is Crashing The Market On Purpose?!

Episode Date: March 3, 2025

Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42Macro. In this conversation we talk about global liquidity, what’s going on with inflation expectations, why the government may be taking the market for a f...oundation of strength, and how this impacts asset prices. =======================The future is being built today and the future of currency isn’t dollars, euros, pounds, or yen, it’s crypto. And Gemini thinks that’s a great thing. Because a future where money is decentralized, inclusive, and globally accessible, that’s a future that we are anxious to be a part of. Go where dollars won’t. With Gemini. =======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $500 in rewards.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great episode with Darius Dale. Darius is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro. In this conversation, we talk about global liquidity, what's going on
Starting point is 00:00:38 with inflation expectations, how the government may actually be tanking the market in order to actually then build a foundation of strength. And Darius walks through how this should impact your portfolio and various assets. I always enjoy talking to Darius and this conversation is no different. Here's my latest conversation with Darius Dale. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational
Starting point is 00:01:16 purposes only. Today's episode is brought to you by Gemini. The future is being built today and the future of currency isn't dollars, euros, pounds, or yen, it's crypto. And Gemini thinks that's a great thing because a future where money is decentralized, inclusive, and globally accessible, that's a future that we are anxious to be a part of. Gemini teamed up with futurists, technologists, and designers like award-winning artist Matt Griffin, known for his illustrations for Dune, to craft a vision of the future with crypto at its core. The creative theme, Go Where Dollars Won't, emphasizes exploration, growth, and the crypto market's limitless potential. Whether it's going on that Martian safari to capture an unforgettable photo of a
Starting point is 00:01:56 herd of woolly mammoths grazing the red planet, or using Bitcoin to pay for your lift pass to go strata skiing down the mountain peak of a breathtaking comet. Whatever adventures we'll be living, one thing is for sure. In a future this fantastic, the limits of traditional currency simply cannot keep up. Financial innovation will usher in this new frontier. And so go where dollars won't with Gemini. Go check them out at Gemini.com slash go where dollars won't. Again, go check it out at Gemini.com slash go where dollars won't. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin IRA. Are you a crypto investor with a retirement account, but don't have any crypto in your retirement account? Then listen up. This is for you. Bitcoin IRA is revolutionizing
Starting point is 00:02:40 the way Americans save for retirement by helping smart investors diversify their savings with access to over 75 cryptocurrencies. With world-class customer service, military-grade encryption, and a vertically integrated licensed trust company, it's no wonder more than 200,000 Americans trust Bitcoin IRA to secure their financial future. Getting started is quick and easy. It takes just three minutes to open an account. Once you're set up, their team of IRA specialists will reach out to guide you through every step of the process. Whether you're transferring an IRA from a legacy bank, rolling over an old 401k, or starting fresh with new contribution, the Bitcoin IRA team is here to help you get access to real crypto in your retirement
Starting point is 00:03:18 account. And here's the best part. As a listener to this podcast, you can earn up to $500 in rewards when you add funds to your account. That's right. Search for Bitcoin IRA in the app store or visit bitcoinira.com slash pomp to join 200,000 Americans on their journey to upgrade their retirement. Bitcoinira.com to upgrade today, and you can earn up to $500 in rewards when you add funds to your account. All right, Darius, I thought a great place to start our conversation today is there's tons of change that's happening. There's lots of chaos, uncertainty. People are trying to figure out where asset price is going, what's going on with the economy. One of the things that I know that you guys do at 42 Macro is you constantly are looking at
Starting point is 00:04:00 regime change. And before we get into what the data is telling us, maybe you could define what exactly is regime change? Yeah, great question, man. Thanks for having me. It's always a pleasure to be here. So I'll start and say that the number one thing that we do for our clients that helps them make money in bull markets and mitigate losses in bear markets is identifying the market regime and helping them position for that either via KISS or Dr. Mo signals. And so when we talk about market regime, what does that ultimately mean? Well, there are risk on regimes, obviously, and then there's risk off regime. That's kind of the main way you think about regimes. And then in the risk on regimes, you can sort of segment into two kinds of regimes. One, there's Goldilocks,
Starting point is 00:04:38 where the markets are sort of pricing and risk on with the disinflationary bias in terms of the sector and factor leadership. There's reflation, where markets are pricing risk on with an inflationary bias in terms of sector and factor leadership within asset markets or asset classes. And then in the risk off regimes, we have inflation, where markets are pricing risk off with an inflationary bias in terms of factor leadership. And then deflation, where markets are pricing risk off with the disinflationary bias in terms of factor leadership. So first it's starting, are we risk on or risk off? That should tell you the kind of asset allocation and portfolio construction you want to have in your portfolio. And then
Starting point is 00:05:12 is it inflationary or deflationary? Because that should tell you the kind of factor leadership you need, the bets you need to make, especially if you're an institutional investor. Okay. Now what's the data telling us in terms of where we are right now? Yeah. Well, in terms of where we are right now in the market regime side of things, that's reserved for our clients. That's the number one thing we do. So we obviously don't talk about that stuff outside the paywall. But what we do talk about outside of our paywall are the things that could cause the market regime to change. And then so we use our grid model as one of the tools in our toolkit that may cause the market regime to change. And one of the things that
Starting point is 00:05:43 our grid model has been signaling for months now is that U.S. economic growth is likely to slow and actually slow faster than consensus expects. So that's new. That's different from where we've been for most of the past two plus years as it relates to our resilient U.S. economy thing, where we've been generally expecting growth to accelerate and surprise consensus expectations to the upside. We now have the opposite conditions in place. And that dynamic is likely to persist over the medium term and may cause some additions, some headwinds and asset markets from the perspective of potentially transitioning us to a risk off market regime. Now, you have this great chart where you say, is President Trump doing his best Ronald Reagan impersonation by kitchen
Starting point is 00:06:21 sinking the US economy and asset markets? What's that mean? Yeah, great question, man. So kitchen sinking. You know, I think Elon Musk made that statement popular again when he came in with Twitter with that kitchen sink. And ultimately what it means is you're trying to, you know, sort of cause the maximum amount of pain early so that you can sort of right size the system and ultimately supply the solutions that gets you sort of out of the malaise. Right. You know, they're essentially trying to transition from a demand side economic economy and fiscal policy to a supply side economy and fiscal policy. And that process could potentially be painful at least in the short term. And this is exactly what we saw when we see when Ronald Reagan became
Starting point is 00:06:59 president. If you look at this chart where we show the S&P 500 index, you know, from the three months prior to Ronald Reagan's presidency, and then sort of the first kind of couple of years of his presidency, we saw that the S&P 500 actually declined 27%, basically, you know, in the first, you know, year and a half of his presidency, as he pushed the economy into recession, you know, with some of those kitchen sinking type policies. So that may be what President Trump and Elon Musk are actually attempting to do. So maybe some light version of that, but that's very clearly what it looks like they're attempting to do. If you read the tea leaves coming out of D.C., you read the tea leaves coming out of the Treasury Department,
Starting point is 00:07:37 and so on and so forth. The January PCE report seems to suggest that we are seeing slowing growth. Yeah, 100%. So again, going back to that first chart where we show our projections for growth, we're essentially expecting growth to slow faster than consensus expecting growth to slow. And I think the January PCE report was the first major hard data report that was supportive of the soft data that we got right over the past few weeks. We've seen a lot of net bad soft data, whether it be on the PMI front, the consumer confidence front, small business optimism, all those things, you know, declined pretty markedly in recent weeks. And then now we finally actually got a hard data report. So real PC, which is 70% of the U.S. economy, that's slow from a well above trend pace of north of 4% on a 3-month annualized basis to 2% on a 3-month annualized basis, which is now a below trend level of growth. That slowdown was driven by a sharp slowdown to a well below trend level of growth of 1% for goods consumption.
Starting point is 00:08:33 So we saw a bit of front running of tariffs over the past several months, and now we're starting to give that back. We had a pretty meaningful slowdown to 2.5% in services consumption from over 3%. And really, I think that the number one thing we have to think about is, okay, why is this slowdown occurring? Why are we now growing at a below-trend level of consumer spending as opposed to the above-trend level of consumer spending that we've seen over the past several last couple of years? And the reality is this is coming because the savings rate is actually increasing. We saw real disposable personal income growth actually accelerate to an above-trend level
Starting point is 00:09:11 of 3.6%, but we also saw the savings rate tick up over 100 basis points to 4.6%. So consumers are getting nervous, they're getting cautious, and they're pulling back on spending as a result. Now, is that all because of the uncertainty of policy, or are there other things driving that? Yeah, well, I would say policy uncertainty and how that's contributing to the competence channel is the main driver. Because again, we saw real disposable personal income growth and nominal disposable personal income growth accelerate to above trend levels in January.
Starting point is 00:09:42 And so the fact that we saw consumer spending flow sharply still tells you that this was really being driven by the increase in the savings rate. And so why you put yourself in the shoes of an American consumer, we're both American consumers. Why would your savings rate go up? Well, suddenly you don't feel as confident about the economy and the labor market and your role within that system as you did. And so in this chart here on slide four, we show the Bank of Luma Davis U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. And essentially outside of the height of the GFC and the height of the COVID crisis, we have as much policy uncertainty as measured by this particular index as we've essentially had ever. And so in my opinion, that's definitely weighing on growth. And we saw it weigh on growth in Q4 as well. You know, you go back to the Q4 GDP report, business investment on a real basis contracted minus over 2% in Q4.
Starting point is 00:10:29 And that may continue as long as we have this elevated policy uncertainty. You've got this slide that shows that consumer confidence is pulling back and bullish stock market expectations are coming down as well. I was definitely in the camp of, hey, Trump's good for the stock market. He's going to do everything he can to push it up. Maybe he does end up doing that over the long run, but it does feel like market expectations have shifted here. Yeah, 100%.
Starting point is 00:10:51 And I'm so glad you said over the long run, because I think what matters here, and this is what always matters to investors, is the sequence. The sequence is more important than the destination, you know, and so as it relates to the sequence, yes, over a long-term time horizon, the net results of President Trump's economic agenda may, you know, contribute to a boom in the economy and a boom in asset markets, but it may not from the starting point, especially in the context of legislating and implementing a bunch of change from a policy perspective relative to a Biden administration that was also very supportive for the asset markets and very supportive for the top half of the K as it relates to the distributional aspect within the economy. consumers and business. But getting back to this chart, in the third panel of this chart, we show consumer confidence for the conference board, consumer confidence for high-income households. You saw that decline for the second consecutive month. It's the lowest print we've seen in years in this particular indicator. And then you see the bullish stock market expectations. That's the third consecutive month of decline in that particular sub-index. And it's now starting to
Starting point is 00:11:50 fall off a cliff. And so you think about consumers, the consumption story here in the U.S. economy has been largely driven by the upper income part of the distribution. You know, if you think about the distributional share of consumer spending, the top third of households, you know, spend more than 50 percent, contribute to more than 50 percent of total consumer spending, whereas the bottom third only contribute 15 percent of consumer spending. So we have a very K-shaped economy that, in my opinion, was the reason President Trump was elected. You know, there was a popular mandate to sort of fix that, those distributional ills, if you will. But at the end of the day, the path they may take to fix those things likely require some pain and they may actually be trying
Starting point is 00:12:30 to front run front load rather all of that pain much like what we saw at ronald reagan and much like what elon musk did with twitter on slide six you have the negative impact of president trump's protectionist policies on the north american economy what are you guys seeing there yeah so uh we got the manufacturing pmi data this morning ism in the us and then the global pmis um as well over the course of the weekend and if you look at the top panel where we show the north North American economies, we see the ISM manufacturing ticked out at 50.3 on a headline basis, but we actually saw it slow the fastest month-over-month slowdown in the new orders component since April of 2020, since the lockdown of April of 2020. So new orders are contracting
Starting point is 00:13:11 on a delta basis as fast as they have since the COVID crash. And then if you look at Canada and Mexico's manufacturing PMIs, those are slowing sharply as well, and they're now well below 50 at kind of 47.8 apiece. So we're already starting to see the impact of just the uncertainty regarding tariffs and the protectionist policies, you know, kind of, you know, cause a contraction in manufacturing activity here in North America. And obviously the implementation of those policies is going to have an incremental negative impact as well. So this is, you know, this is policy uncertainty. You know, I've been saying to our clients over the past few weeks, It's we're getting clarity on bad policy like tariffs and restricting immigration, but we still don't have clarity on the good policies as it relates to deregulation, tax cuts, the size, the ultimate scope of the Doge project.
Starting point is 00:14:00 You know, we don't have any clarity on the good stuff, but we have clarity on the bad stuff. And it's now really starting to weigh on the data. Let's talk about some fun stuff, which is the Fed. Are they going to take the 2% inflation target and move it up to 3% or are they going to leave it at 2%? this is the this is the question of the year and and one of the great questions of our time as it relates to uh where we are in this fourth turning process you know so you know we've been so what you're seeing on the slide here uh slide seven is our secular inflation model and what this model is designed to do is you know sort of you know relate to interpolate the normalized change of
Starting point is 00:14:36 you know sort of of these major you know economic variables that have been academically proven to be correlated or co-integrated with the underlying trend of inflation. We're trying to interpolate the normalized change of those variables in this business cycle onto the underlying trend of core PC inflation to see if there is a structural shift in the equilibrium rate of core PC inflation. And our model suggests that there has been a structural shift in the equilibrium rate of core PC inflation. It used to be somewhere around the mid twos, sort of mid ones, sort of low. It was 1.6%. If you look at the 2010 to 2019 decade, it was probably closer to 2%. If you look at the latter half of that, our model suggested the equilibrium inflation, the core PCE inflation
Starting point is 00:15:19 rate in the US economy is somewhere between the high twos and low threes. And it has every month since we've refreshed this model for our clients and our monthly macro scouting reports since January of 2022. And so ultimately, go back to that first chart where if you look at the bottom right plot, where we show our core PCE inflation forecast, we have core PCE inflation bottoming here in Q1, and it's starting to meander higher in Q2. And by Q3, it'll be pretty clear that we're in an uptrend in core PC inflation. If our model is correct, it may not be correct, but our model has been generally more accurate over the past few years than Wall Street consensus. But if our model is correct, and we do have a uptrend in core PC inflation, I think what's
Starting point is 00:15:56 going to happen is the market narrative around accepting the fact that we're going to get back to 2% inflation in 2027 or 2020, these made up long-term forecasts that the Fed keeps throwing out there, I think the market's comfort with that will start to dissipate because the market will say essentially, hey, you're wrong on inflation now here in 2025. I can't trust you on 2027 or 2028. And so ultimately what it's going to do, in my opinion, again, if we're right on the uptrend, it's going to force the Fed to have to acknowledge that the equilibrium core PC inflation rate in this business cycle is higher. And ultimately, they're going to have a tough choice to make. If it is higher, do you want to
Starting point is 00:16:37 just bury your head in the sand and kind of try to pound us back to 2% by running monetary policy way too tight? Or do you just revise the inflation target higher and give yourself policy flexibility to use your balance sheet to take some pressure off of investors from capitalizing the US government? And one final thing I'll say on this is I think they should revise their inflation target higher and acknowledge that we have a higher equilibrium level of core PC inflation, because ultimately what that'll do is it'll address some of these case-shaped distributional ills that we've seen in the economy that have caused so much political chaos in recent years. If you think about the marketable treasury market, we've gone from us, the private non-bank
Starting point is 00:17:15 sector, me, you, and everybody else that's not part of the government or part of commercial banks or part of foreign central bank reserve managers, us, the rest of us, have had to go from the 36% share of the marketable treasury market in December of 2021. Now we have a 56% ship. We've gained 2,000 basis points of share in terms of us having to capitalize Uncle Sam over the past few years. And that's obviously causing a crowding out in asset markets. You can see it in terms of the Russell 2000 has been flat on its back. Basically, any stock that is tethered to the real economy has been flat for years. But every stock that's tethered to the digital economy, we've seen that kind of K-shaped play out. We've obviously seen the
Starting point is 00:17:56 K-shaped dynamics play out with respect to consumer spending and the quality of life here in this country for the lower half of the K. And so ultimately, if we can stop the Uncle Sam from crowding us out from an investment standpoint, that'll trickle down into stopping that, eliminating some of that crowding out that we're seeing from an economic standpoint as well. So I think the Fed needs to use its balance sheet to take some pressure off of us, the private non-bank sector. Because if they don't, we're going to have some significant problems in 2025 in asset market terms. I have for years said that I thought
Starting point is 00:18:31 they were going to increase the inflation target. And people used to say that I was insane. So the fact that you're even suggesting it's possible makes me feel a little bit better that maybe I'm not so crazy. Yeah, no, you and I have been talking about this for years, man. Absolutely. And look, you and I, I don't want to toot our own horn, but this is a horn toot. And so close your ears if you need to. you and I have consistently stayed one to two quarters ahead of the consensus in these discussions. And it's not because I'm smarter than anyone or you're smarter than anyone. It's because we're doing the work. I know your research process. I know how hard you work. I
Starting point is 00:19:05 know how much you grind for your clients and for your investors. And we're doing the same thing in 42 Macros. Now, again, it's not because we're smarter than everyone. It's because we're working harder. And that's the beauty of this country. You can outwork people and have success. Facts. Explain slides eight through 10. Yeah, so it's like 8 through 10 real quick. So a lot of what everything we just said here in the last 20 minutes or so is designed to help you guys or whoever's listening understand the full distribution of probable outcomes. So and the reason that's important is because we, in terms of how we help our clients actually
Starting point is 00:19:37 make money in financial markets, is we use systematic quantitative signals. I don't say, hey, growth is going to slow, so sell short stocks or sell a short Bitcoin or growth is going to accelerate or liquidity is going to go up. So buy Bitcoin. I say liquidity is going to go up. Therefore, our systematic signals are probably going to make sure that you're long Bitcoin throughout that process. But if my forecast and my fundamental prediction is wrong, those systematic signals will say, Darius, you're an idiot. It's time to sell Bitcoin. What we found is that the results that our clients experience from following the systematic signals are better than the results that our clients experience from our fundamental research.
Starting point is 00:20:18 And as I just said, we've had some of the best fundamental research on global Wall Street for the past, since the inception of our firm. So that's what this chart on slide eight is, is just comparing how we think about asset allocation and portfolio construction and how those things change over time for investors and their portfolios relative to how most people think about it, which is, I think XYZ is going to happen in the future. And if XYZ doesn't happen, I lose money, right? That's how most people invest. How we invest and how a lot of the top institutions on global Wall Street invest is we think XYZ is going to happen and we're fine allowing our risk management signals, keep us in the proper asset allocation and portfolio
Starting point is 00:20:57 construction. But if our fundamental research process is wrong and XYZ doesn't happen, then we have this risk management system come in and actually change our exposures for us sooner than we otherwise would if we were just relying on fundamental information alone. That makes sense to me. What do you think about the crypto strategic reserve? Yeah. So my initial thoughts are, you know, the reason, you know, just compare us to countries that actually have sovereign wealth funds. Those countries have large current account surpluses that, you know, contribute to, you know, essentially a growing stock of reserves and savings at the country level, right? If you think about, you know, your current account is your
Starting point is 00:21:35 spread between your gross savings and your gross investment in your economy. And so, if you have savings, you have a trade surplus, et cetera, and you have a fiscal surplus or the net of your trade surplus is greater than your fiscal deficit, then you're growing your savings and you can actually, you have savings to actually invest in asset markets. We don't have that dynamic. We have a 7% budget deficit to GDP, right? And so my perspective is, where are we going to get the money to actually finance a strategic crypto reserve, right? Like, you know, are we going to have to issue debt to buy crypto assets just so that we can sell the crypto assets later to pay down more debt. I mean, that sounds about as dumb as anything as I've ever heard. You were suggesting
Starting point is 00:22:21 that in our pre-production that they could revalue the gold and rotate that into crypto. That's a smart strategy. But again, I still think that if your goal as a crypto investor, if you're listening to these types of headlines, you have to understand that we don't have money as a country to acquire these assets. So we have to issue debt on top of any sort of gold revaluation. Do you have any thoughts on this? Because I find it to be kind of preposterous, but I hope I'm not too crazy. I don't think that we should put anything other than Bitcoin in the strategic reserve. And that's coming from someone who is going to financially benefit from the fact that they will put other things in there. That is good for me,
Starting point is 00:22:59 but I don't think that we should do that. I instead think that it should be Bitcoin only or nothing. And, um, you know, it's this weird dynamic, like one, those other assets are not strategic to, to your point, where does the money come from? It's pretty important. Um, and then three, and maybe the part that people don't really, uh, think as much about is the precedent. If we set a precedent for us to speculate, let's go buy Tesla stock. Let's buy GameStop. Let's buy Palantir, right? Let's buy Berkshire Hathaway. And if we're going to do that let's go put lp interest from citadel and millennium and hey rentac why don't you guys go in there and oh let's go get our favorite private credit fund and then apollo wants to be you know
Starting point is 00:23:43 what i mean it's just like where do you stop um might as well just give the balance sheet capital jim kramer let him pick individual stocks right yeah yeah so you're right who's in charge of this stuff right like like are we assuming that every treasury secretary has the investing acumen of Scott Besant? Absolutely not. I mean, I don't want Janet Yellen managing a strategic anything reserve. Yeah. And my guess is that they're not going to do active management. But the point just being like, look, we have a lot of strategic reserves of very different things. Most people know that we have a strategic oil reserve. They know that we've got a strategic gold kind of reserve. They know that we have a strategic stockpile of medical supplies that obviously
Starting point is 00:24:27 when covet happened right but we also have helium and rare earth metals um we even have a lot of people don't know this we have our strategic reserve of cheese uh of cheese senator lummis from uh wyoming she recently told me that that was a great one um so like look we got like weird stuff but it's strategic there's a reason right uh we have a strategic uh reserve of um i think it's a home heating oil for northeastern homes yeah anything happens right we can uh go ahead and actually make sure the homes are heated like there's reasons for this stuff bitcoin is digital gold if you have the analog version you should have the digital version agreed there's no precedent for these other things and so again what i think is not going to matter no one's
Starting point is 00:25:13 going to listen to me um they should why wouldn't they listen to you look they're going to you and I should just run for president in like 10, 20 years. I'll be your VP and then you'd be my VP. There's a game of lobbying going on that is unlike anything that the world has ever seen because crypto is Wall Street magnified. And so now what you have is you have, you know, a very high stakes game of who gets included in the reserve
Starting point is 00:25:43 and you're getting a bunch of crypto projects that are going to do everything they possibly can to make sure they're included. it. And as we've seen, crypto projects take a lot of money. And, you know, frankly, they're willing to do whatever it takes. Well, I still have a question. I agree with everything you just said. I still have a question. Because actually, the one thing I disagree with is you said they're probably going to not have an active management approach. Unless they have the portfolio mirror, the global investor portfolio, they're making active decisions, right? Like just by adding
Starting point is 00:26:15 these tokens and not other tokens, you made an active choice. You will have to make an active choice every time you sell something in the future to either pay down debt or to finance some other initiative of the government. And so these are all active choices. How do you determine what the weights are? What if Solana doubles or triples in value relative to Bitcoin? Now you have this massive Solana position. Do you need to rebalance that? These are all active choices and choices that institutional clients have to make on a daily basis. And so again, it goes back to where's the money coming from, who's managing the money, what assets are in there, and how does this ultimately benefit the American public? Because right now I feel like it's really just benefiting
Starting point is 00:26:50 Donald Trump from a political standpoint. He knows how popular this type of stuff is with a certain cohort of voters. And so just give them what they want. Tell them they're going to give them their huge Bitcoin reserve. And a lot of people aren't going to think critically about what are the ultimate implications about the stuff that you and I are talking about. And so I just want to make sure that people are thinking critically about these things as American citizens. The last thing I'll say is I don't think most people in the crypto community actually agree with this. I think they think it should be Bitcoin only or nothing at all. Good.
Starting point is 00:27:19 So we'll see. Good. Where can we send people to find out more about 42 Macro? Go to 42macro.com. Come check us out. We got a little something for everything. We got clients all across global Wall Street in the investment management space. We have retail clients all over the world, 80 different countries. We're doing a good job for our clients and we're going to expect to continue doing a good job. So thanks for checking us out. Legend. All right. Thank you very much. We'll do it again.
Starting point is 00:27:41 Thank you, brother.

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