The Pomp Podcast - #1517 Jordi Visser | Bitcoin & AI Will Change The World FAST

Episode Date: March 29, 2025

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we talk about bitcoin, AI, what is going on in the stock market, and what areas Jordi thinks are undervalued. =======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Created by Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum, Polkadot empowers users to build decentralized applications with ease. Backed by industry leaders, making it a preferred choice for big names, Polkadot stands out as a leading choice for investors seeking a reliable, future-proof solution in the growing world of Web3 technology. Learn more at https://polkadot.com/.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we break down what's going on with Bitcoin. Why does it have the only defensible

moat in the world? What Jordy's thinking about AI, the recent sentiment changes happening in the market, how stocks are doing. Should you actually be excited or should you be worried? What do you think is going to happen to the rest of this year? How things like the economic policies of the Trump administration are playing out all over financial markets and many, many more topics I think you guys will enjoy this conversation as every conversation I have with Jordy is packed with insights. So I hope you enjoy it. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat

any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. thousand hash boards each month in our dedicated repair center ensuring your miners run smoothly want to see it firsthand tour our mining sites either in person or online anytime plus for your first year of mining we cover all repairs no questions asked we bill you for the exact time your miners are running and you can pause whenever you want need to buy or sell our exclusive minor marketplace gives you the freedom to trade on your schedule you'll even have a custom dashboard to

track your minor stats in real time and if you're thinking about running your operation like a business our tax team can guide you through the depreciation advantages ready to grow your bitcoin stack visit simplemining.io today's episode is brought to you by polka dot polka dot offers secure scalable and decentralized blockchain technology that perfectly aligns with the needs of innovative projects it was developed by gavin wood one of the co-founders of ethereum and the creator of solidity polka dot aims to build an internet where users have full control over their data and their applications. Polkadot offers tons of unique features, a shared security model, along with a new auction model and significant implementations like ASIC banking. Given these

characteristics, it's easy to understand why Polkadot is gaining more and more traction in the cryptocurrency world. Some people even are talking about it as the AWS of Web3. Now companies such as Mythical Games, Astro Network, and over 50 other independent blockchains with hundreds of applications already leverage Polkadot's technology to power their platforms. If you're looking for a reliable, scalable, and cutting-edge solution, Polkadot seems to be the top choice for industry players. Go check them out today at polkadot.com. Jordy, I thought a great place to start the conversation this week is this idea of Bitcoin being the moat, right? Like there's all these different technologies, all these different sectors, all these different companies that

they all claim to have a moat, but in a acceleration of tech innovation, those moats really get tested but it seems like bitcoin continues to stand out by itself you've got some thoughts here explain yeah the phrase i've used um is there's only three true moats that i know of gold is one that's working uh religion lasted 2 000 years not going anywhere and bitcoin and it kind of freaks people out to think about that because then they go back and what about and they can name whatever company they want companies or ideas that have turned into something to be monetized. But in a world of exponential innovation and exponential change, if you believe in that, and you believe that we're now entering a world with artificial intelligence, that we now

have the ability of creating almost instantaneous competition, well, then you want to find the things that can survive the test of time. I think even behind the scenes as to why gold is doing so well right now, gold is outside of the system. You and I have talked about where we are with the debt, what's going on with Trump's policies, the whole framework of the world is kind of changing. And at a minimum, people are like, well, is US debt? Am I going to get paid? Are we going to restructure it? I just need to have more gold. I need to have more security. And the reason Bitcoin at this point has not reached the same level as gold as a completely outside the system is because it is a technology. It is an innovation. But in the end, if you believe, as I do,

that the S&P 500, the lifespan of a company is down to about 15 years with AI that will continue to decline, then what innovation is going to be here no matter what? And that's why Bitcoin at the end of the day, when it surpasses the market cap of the MAG7, I think it's reached that point of it has a moat just like gold. And I think that'll happen this year. And that Bitcoin moat, how much of that is being furthered by governments embracing a regulation like these things that are not technology, right? Technology is very clear. My favorite stat is always if you take Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, all their computing power, and you put it together, it's less than 1% of the whole Bitcoin network. That's a technical mode. That's a network mode that is not going to be

very easily overcome. But there does seem to be these like almost soft modes in a weird way where like Bitcoin is entered into the mental or like the mind share and people look at it as, okay, that's the one that gets the strategic Bitcoin reserve. These other assets don't, right? And so how do you think about that i i so if you go back to gold and religion those are stories those are beliefs that people have run with and decided and so i think it was stan ruckmiller that said you can't argue the fact that bitcoin is a brand well a brand at this point means there's some story attached to it so it's not just governments that are adopting it it's not just corporations it's not just individuals but at the end of the day when you really look and you're like well

what's happening the voters are voting it's become something important in politics i think it had a huge impact on the election this year because they embraced it and donald trump was smart to embrace it so part of this whole thing of emote is actually human beings just accepting it as that and the longer that something works the longer that it outperforms and i've said this before i think the only reason that wealthier people in the markets and high net worth individuals haven't embraced bitcoin as much as they would have given the performance where everyone's a performance chaser is because they haven't needed to so to use that michael saylor line you don't find bitcoin bitcoin finds you well eventually this year at the golf course if bitcoin's up 25 year to date and

the mag 7 are down 15 and continuing to struggle i think at that point you don't realize that there's nothing else that you can buy that can compete with that kind of return in technology because i think ai is now becoming a disruptive force to all technology companies and when you look at that ai disruption that's occurring where are we kind of in this cycle because i think that um if you go back to end of last year ai was can do no wrong it's the golden child it's going to continue going up it feels like there's been some softening it started with the deep seek uh development out of china there's a lot of people paying attention to china now but you're also seeing it you know with the core weave ipo and a number of these different components maybe walk us

through like what's happening with this like sentiment change that seemed to be playing out over the last couple of weeks? Yeah, this is, I didn't think this would happen this fast. I thought this year would be about the MAG-7 underperforming, but there's a real sentiment change happening. And I think for investors that are now starting to watch this on a weekly basis, this is probably the most important thing that's starting to become clear. It started with DeepSea. So what DeepSea did is question, okay, China's not that far behind us. So instead of saying China, let's just say competition. We thought there was a race ahead and the Mag 7 had this huge advantage. They don't. So when you have a tiny little place with less than a thousand employees, and I forget,

I think DeepSeek has 160 to 200 employees, and they're able to do what they did, regardless of how they did it. And regardless of how much money they spent, they were able to do it. I think this shook up a lot of people's confidence, and that's when NVIDIA started to break down. Well, since then, you've had Satya Nadella say this race to AGI makes no sense to him. So Microsoft has, again, been pulling back on data center leases, but he's been very open about, I don't think racing towards this commoditized product makes sense. So now you have one of the hyperscalers saying, I'm kind of out. And they're spending, but he's clearly made a decision that he wants to make it more on the application side. Huawei has chips that are coming out that are competing with NVIDIA.

Now you've got this question on whether they're there. You mentioned CoreWeave. I think we may have entered a period when you look at the S&P 500, which has done fine this year. It's only down a few percent, but the MAG-7 have been hit hard. I think the reality is those companies are fine. Their earnings are going to grow, but they're spending a lot of money. And the question is, three years from now, will the competition be so extreme that their

valuation in all tech companies are there? So we're having this divergence where the hardware and the software are kind of merging. So AI embodiment is a theme that we talked about last week. But there's another angle here, too, which is healthcare stocks are doing very well. We're going to be spending a lot of money on healthcare, and you can't replace the healthcare side with AI. So it's not a competition. It's actually an adoption story.

Financials have been regulated heavily. They're going to be deregulated. They're going to benefit from the adoption side. They're doing well. And then when you add in energy and utilities for the power side, I think the interesting themes are about the late adopters and the early adopters are under extreme pressure and competition from AI. So I think that's a theme that's starting to play out in front of our eyes. The thing with the AI, so I recently tweeted a story where I had a friend, they went to the doctor, the doctor gave them a very, very concerning high risk diagnosis, that high risk diagnosis. they were obviously upset. They go home, they take the scans, they upload them into ChatGPT.

ChatGPT ends up telling them something different, which there was still something there, but it was nowhere near as high risk. And that person then takes the scan, draws some arrows on the scan, uploads it into the doctor's portal, and basically was like, hey, what am I looking at here? Didn't say anything about AI, but just was like, out of curiosity, what is this? And basically the doctor called and was fairly embarrassed and was like, hey, I don't know what I was looking at. I think that A, B, and C is true now. And so there's two things that I think I took away from that situation. One was how many misdiagnoses, how many issues are there in the traditional system? But two was, wow, these systems are pretty good, right? And this was just like your kind of average

use of chat GPT. It wasn't a model that was trained specifically for medical use or anything like that. And so I posted this. You know what I was most surprised by? How many doctors or medical professionals that are on Twitter or on Instagram, whatever, reached out to me and said, and almost were bragging about how they're trying to incorporate AI into their practices because they realized that this technology is really powerful. And one doctor in particular was basically saying, we're trying to use it as a double check of everything that we're doing already because we don't want the patient to go home and do it. So we'd rather just do it here and make sure that us and the AIs are aligned.

And I was just like blown away as to how quickly these things are infiltrating into these systems. And that is just in healthcare. You go through all these different industries and it feels like, hey, we may have just as many kind of software employees within the next two or three years

working at these companies than human employees. So let's, I mean, this is a difficult comparison maybe for people to visualize, but I think there's the accuracy side, which obviously has already been shown that AI has driven this, but let's go towards the ATM versus bank teller side. So when you had to go to a bank teller and you had to wait online and you had to wait through 10 people and then go up there and do a transaction that ended up taking seconds to just go to a machine. I think eventually, you know, three years from now, if you want to go get

a complete body scan MRI, which is now down to in some places, a hundred dollars, maybe there'll be an office where there's 50 of them. You go in, you have the work done, you leave immediately and everything goes through an app that's to your phone it speeds up how quickly you're getting your information it helps you remain healthier because you're getting you do it once a year you're getting a cancer scan you're getting all of this stuff is coming and it will make the medical side much more efficient it'll make the user experience much more efficient the accuracy much more efficient and because you are it's a certainty that healthcare expenditures are going to continue to grow because of the demographics and because of the health of the country right now i think

you're going to see a lot of money put into this for this so i think the experience that you're describing is one of the reasons why on the healthcare side you want to invest in the sectors that are the most inefficient you saw musk say yesterday that he believes he can get a trillion dollars out of spending out by may whether or not he can do that he has looked at now for long enough you want to look at the most inefficient parts of the economy where they are making money and have revenue coming in. Healthcare is an obvious one. And that's why I think as a sector,

there's a very important story going here that fits into what you just described. The other thing that feels pretty important is this new like image generation that came out. We've got some folks who work with us who they're getting very sophisticated on this and they're looking at it. And my takeaway was not,

oh my God, all the designers are gonna go away. My takeaway was everyone now is going to have maybe entry level or above capabilities of a designer at their fingertips. And the designers, they don't want to be doing low-level type work. They want to be worked on the highest use and best use of their skill set and their experience. And so what you're really doing is you're democratizing access to these skills. And one of the things that happened this week that just blew my mind is Amjad Massad, who is the founder and CEO of Replit, which many people use as kind of their entryway into coding.

He said that a year ago, he used to tell everyone, learn to code. Now he's like, I actually don't think that you need to learn to code. I think you need to learn how to think very clearly and talk to the machines. And it feels like, oh, maybe what we're actually doing with all this AI stuff is we're taking skill sets and we're able to very quickly import them into different people who wouldn't have to go through the hours, months, years of training. But if you now all of a sudden can type into a screen and it can generate a design image, it can generate code, it can do this.

Like, what is the productivity boom? Everyone's worried about the contraction of like, oh, my God, people are going to lose their jobs. Of course, there will be some shift in, you know, kind of employment. But actually, the way bigger story is the productivity boom, in my opinion. Yeah. And so I've talked about Replit and Cursor. And I remember Shane was outside. We talked about it before I left last week. My experience on this and the one part I would say I completely agree. I don't know how to code, but what I do know how to do after my five coding classes is move through the terminal on my computer.

I can build things by taking Python code and bringing it in and running it. What Replit and Cursor allowed me to do is create applications and to go through the thinking. So on your first point about the design side, I've said this to everyone because I write a lot of content. AI cannot write the content that I do because the most important thing is connecting the dots in the thought process of what to write about, not just with understanding the users, what they want to read, like what's topical, what do people want to see? AI embodiment is an easy one. People love humanoids. They love the thought process. But if I'm going to write a paper on something a little bit more about the markets, the creativity

of how I connect that back to a story is very hard. And I have yet to use AI for the thinking part. So prompts are really critical to go through and create and how you create a prompt. I've been teaching people how I do my own prompts to get more research out. So I think it's giving you more time for critical thinking. You're getting rid of the mundane task. It's doing all the work. And Replit is a perfect example of something that for me, this democratization of entrepreneurship, you're a hardworking guy. You've built your career on kind of hustle and going through it. If you don't hustle, good things don't happen. Using Replit and Cursor, there's a little bit of that hustle in it. Are you going to put the time in to look stupid for

a little while? Once you put in a half hour with Replit, you're going to be able to build an application. How much joy does that bring you and lead you to the next entrepreneurial stage? if you go back to your career and think about the first step you had to take when you walk into an office to try and raise money or do something it takes putting yourself out there to look stupid to get get back up and go do it again and ai encoding and replet and cursor they all fit into the same thing it's just go take the risk when we look at some of the developments that have happened um it feels like anything that is pro-technology pro-growth pro um kind of innovation uh aligns very well with the current administration. But President Trump is saying that he wants to

repeal the CHIPS Act. And that seems like, for those that aren't familiar with all the details, wait, the CHIPS Act, it's called CHIPS, right? Isn't that supposed to be a positive thing? Talk a little bit as to what's happening there. And then why do you think it has such a big impact on the market? So for the semiconductors, which are critical to the whole picks and shovel part of what had been invested in, particularly NVIDIA. I think this week in particular, it gets back into the uncertainty side. Remember, he's doing a deal with Taiwan Semiconductor to bring more manufacturing here on the semis. I think the lack of certainty, again, on what the goal is, because what he said in the press release is we want to take that money back in. And I think

they're trying to get whatever cash they can for both the deficit, which in the end is for the debt, and that's the goal of all the tariffs or anything the chips act fits into the same kind of category of there's no way that they don't believe that chips are an important part of the security of the country and in the ai arms race that's why we have export ban so i think the chips act fits more but i think for everyone who's investing right now it's just every day they come in they're like okay we can go buy the semiconductors and they're going to go higher and right now while the tariffs are going on and while there's the negative sentiment on the mag seven until we get some kind of an earnings change. Any news that comes out is bad news for

the space at this point. When you see that bad news coming out, you see a lot of people who are growing bearish. You know, you've pointed out that the survey information is not so hot. Does bad market conditions create bearishness psychologically or does psychological bearishness create the bad market conditions, right? Like it doesn't become this like self fulfilling prophecy where if everyone's scared of a recession, it creates the recession? Or is it, no, you get into the recession and then everyone fears it? So to simplify the market, the only time we actually end up having a stained bear market, which turns into a recession, is if nominal GDP goes below zero. So that might be boring to people, but we're still at 5% annual nominal GDP.

So nominal GDP is before inflation. So they're trying to cut growth down. So we talked about it before. If they're able to find and go through this, as Scott Besson said, and they find one percentage point a year to contribute money back towards the deficit, well, that's $300 billion a year. So nominal GDP would go from 5% theoretically to 4%. The feedback loop you're talking about is if they do it in a manner where the stock market falls, well, then you run the risk of consumption falling as well because the economy is based on the stock market at the end of the day. We're financialized whether we like it or not. Now, can the market go down 20% in two months? Yes.

Will that put us into a recession? No. right now in the first quarter, we're looking like we might have negative GDP. Today's real consumer spending or real personal spending number came in at 0.1, but we revised last month to minus 0.6. So for the first quarter, we're looking like negative GDP is a real possibility in the U.S. from the spending side. I think that's just a temporary thing in terms of what happened seasonally, weather, what was going on in California. But to your point, like as you go through this. It can become a self-fulfilling prophecy that if the stock market falls a lot,

and this is where I'll just say to people, we said this on the first or the second time we did this, Ray Dalio called this a beautiful deleveraging. The number one thing you cannot do is have a recession when you have a deficit, because then you have to spend your way to get out of it. So they're not trying to cause a recession. The tariffs, he's trying to get some money out of it. The auto side, he's saying is a hundred billion, maybe it's 75, whatever the case, be more tariffs next week once we get through that and we get through the reality that they're not trying to do that then we can focus on the tax cuts everything will normalize very very soon you mentioned scott besant um i think i have yelled at tom blue in the face that uh his

commentary about he doesn't believe the economic data still i'm shocked by um but an area where you've pointed out is the hard and soft data does not actually line up and so even if you take all the data at face value and say it's all accurate there are data points that suggest there is a disagreement between these metrics and so how do you sift through do you believe more of the hard data the soft data do you just look at it holistically so there's there's a couple things that we haven't talked about yet which i i think are good um for everyone to understand so i want you to simp if we simplify the economy to three components right now you have the old gdp side so gdp the statistic was created in the 1930s by simon kuznets it was based on physical goods

created, tangible assets. Then you have the digital economy, which, you know, started around 1994. It was disrupting the way GDP was calculated. We revised up, people don't remember this, but in 1998, we revised up the prior eight years of GDP by two percentage points a year during the Bill Clinton year. So when you go back and you look, wow, it was a great time. We revised up the numbers and we changed kind of the software capitalization that was included. In 2013, we revised up nominal GDP this year by that year by $560 billion. And the reason was because they changed the R&D component in there. So they've had a hard time with this. So the digital economy has been going exponential. That's what's been carrying the economy. There's no debt associated with it.

You have this old GDP economy, which I'll say is a third digital economy, a third. This one is a third you brought up. The other third is now the government. They're a big portion. 25% of all jobs created in the last two years come from the government. And so the government and the digital economy are the big part, but we still use GDP as a statistic. The government, we know their statistics are not good. We know that. We've gone through it.

So what you're left with is there's no way to trust the numbers, but we know that they get revised up all the time. And GDP always gets revised higher. So I think what we're in at this point is that people were probably understating growth, and that's because AI is now accelerating at a faster pace so that digital economy is actually growing exponential. And that's why the S&P 500 has been so overweighted towards technology because it's been growing so fast. What are you worried about right now?

Do you worry about the bearishness, the survey results, this disagreement of hard and soft data? Or are you saying, hey, everyone else is worried. And so that gets me excited because, you know, prices are down and these are good entry prices because I think it'll recover before the end of the year. Short-term, I still think there's a chance the market could go lower in the short run because I think the economic data and the earnings for the first two quarters could be worse than expected because of the uncertainty that's out there. There was an interesting release from the Dallas Fed two days ago, and they put out an energy survey every quarter.

And if you go into the comments section of this energy survey, and the reason I'm highlighting that rather than Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan, those are all skewed because of the politics. The one thing you should be fairly confident with when it comes to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey is I think most of the people in there would be Republican supporters. So you get a pro-Trump. The comments section was that I've never seen a worse, more uncertainty in my entire 40-year career in this industry.

There's no way we can have drill, baby, drill on one side and have these tariffs on the other side, because to get oil to $50, we can't do that the way it is. Now, piping's gone up. Like, there was all these commentaries on the problem of the policies and what's going on. I think there's a risk that if he's serious about trying to fix the deficit very quickly, that he might be underestimating that the stock market could go down a lot in the short run. I do have faith that he would turn very quickly, make deals, still get what he wants because I don't think the rest of the world wants a trade war as well. So I think the big fear to me is that the market could probably get much worse than people think in the short run if these policies continue to be done in a way that creates uncertainty for more than, say, another month.

I don't think that's going to happen because I think the sentiment has gotten so bearish and people have reduced their expectations of the stock market so much. And as I've said, the world is doing fine and the breadth of the S&P is fine. So my guess is we've either made the lows for the year. I hate to say that because we haven't gone down that much. Or on the next leg lower, that will be the low and it'll happen sometime in the next month or two. Do you think there's a threshold where the administration would call uncle? Like 15% down, 20% down? Or is it just they keep saying they don't care about the stock market, but if we're down 20%, it feels like they probably would care. Yeah. I think 15 to 20% is where the no mas thing is. The only reason I say that is because

I think things have changed a little bit since we got to down 10%. I know the pressure that's being applied with inside Washington back towards him. I think his Stefanik kind of move of saying we need to get. The reality of that whole thing is he doesn't have a big edge for his tax cuts. Like it's not a foregone conclusion that he can just get them in. There's a lot of people thinking the tax cuts won't actually get through until the end of the year. So the longer we're doing the austerity side in the first half, I believe the no mas, let's just kind of call victory here. I think he's done enough at this point with the trade side where the negotiations are happening that if he wanted to kind of throw the white flag in and say, this is it,

I think he could do it. I think the Doge thing, what Musk said yesterday is really important because if he did find anything even close to that, that he can get out of there, that's the bigger deal out of this than all this other, because that gives them the ability of not focusing as much on the tariffs if they get the internal spending numbers to be that much in check. Is Doge bad for the stock market? it is right now because we're looking at so this i'll i'll use an anecdotal experience so i was down in palm beach this week to speak at an event and one of the themes that came out from three separate people all across the country was the impact that uh the cuts towards the universities

were having on the health care side the hospitals at the at the universities so you've seen some of numbers we're cutting off funding to you we're cutting off funding to you it's leading to contracts being done now it hasn't shown up in any hard data yet so i until i start seeing something show up the actual spending numbers to me don't matter as much overall because i think that is very inefficient low multiple low multiplier um gdp i think it's the job situation and there's really nothing on the job situation right now that says we're going to have job losses and as long as you don't have job losses the only thing you have is people tightening up their belts a little bit so i think doge is bad for the stock market until we get more clarity

on what the cuts are going to be but i do think anecdotally there's you know there's stories floating around where people are talking about how bad it is for the hospitals and things like that at various places and i do think that that has an impact on sentiment i think that's why you've seen the surveys come down when i look at the stock market right now it feels like there's a ton of short-termism. People are worried about what the stock market's going to do the next week, the next month, maybe the next quarter. But it feels like all of the short-term pain, chaos, uncertainty is laying the foundation for a long-term boom. And I always ask myself, am I just such an optimist that I'm always going to think that

regardless of what the situation is? Or is that what we're watching play out here? I see all the early stage technology and they're just assaulting these various industries. You see everything from hard tech, AI, genetics, software, I mean, just everything. And it's not, when I say quote unquote early stage technology, really it's the challengers. So like Robinhood's a good example. It's Robinhood, public.com, Webull, eToro, there's a bunch of these companies. And they're all doing a very good job, I think, driving down costs for their users. Users obviously like these products, but Robinhood now is trying to get into wealth management and, you know, all these different sectors. And you say to yourself, maybe the challengers actually have the better widget and the incumbents, they're like sitting ducks.

And so that long-term, you know, kind of innovation explosion, the foundation is being laid. It does feel that way. What do you think? So I think one of the reasons that we enjoy each other's company is we're both optimists. But I think there's also, we don't get caught in the moment to moment things and make it too big. So I grew up trading. I grew up in the hedge fund world. I understand why people live tick to tick. I've sat in front of screens and watched it. We're doing auto tariffs. I don't think people know this, but if you go to the PCE, and you go to the FRED database and you go look at how many dollars are spent a year on new autos

in this country. So in a year, it's about $230 to $250 billion a year of new autos. There's used autos, there's parts that are bigger than that, but that's how much it is. The total amount of dollars spent on gambling is about the same number and growing exponentially. We have kids that are anxiety filled. I think this kind of extrapolating the current into the future is just, it's part of society right now. It creates advantages for the stuff you're saying. Do I believe that getting the deficit down is a necessity? Yes. Do I believe at least controlling debt to GDP from growing as rapidly as it did from 09 is important? Yes. AI is a real thing. It's going to create real productivity gains. There's no way around it. We're going to live longer. These are all massively

positive things that are not going linear anymore. They're going exponential. So for people who get too negative, they're going to miss the opportunity to come out of this. There will be more opportunities coming out. And the foundation is being laid where people that are doom and gloom and think that we're going into a recession, there are no such things anymore. For what I said, a third government, they have control over the printing press over there. A third digital economy, it's going exponential. You're focused on a portion of the economy that gets smaller every single year. All you have to do is go look at the manufacturing jobs. So to believe that the government, which is subsidizing a high portion of the spending,

25, almost 25 percent of annual spending now is on health care. It's the government transferring money through Medicare, Medicaid. It's not going anywhere. Social Security, all of that stuff. So I just think people get too worried about this because of the trend that's happening. But the S&P X, the mag seven is unchanged for the year. The fact that people are this bearish at this stage when there's nothing happening on the economic data and X those seven companies, and the S&P was up over 50% of mine in the last two

years, just means that people are extrapolating too much on the present. When we see all this AI stuff, the humanoids you mentioned earlier, everyone is excited about it. It feels like that is the area with the largest total addressable market. It feels like that's the area where people understand, okay, it's going to go into the factories. I think the number is Amazon right now has 1.5 million human employees, 750,000 robotic employees. But what I think I'm most fascinated by is like, are robots going to be in your house, like babysitting your kids when you go to dinner with your wife? Not my kids, your kids.

Right. Right. Like, I do think that that is a very weird thing to think about. But it's not just that you're going to have robots in your house, right? There's Roombas and there's, you know, Amazon Alexas and there's kind of like, you know, very elementary, you know, kind of examples of this stuff. But I'm talking about the replacement for a human in robotic form that is doing your laundry, washing your dishes, taking out all the things that you don't want to do that are lower level stuff than maybe the highest value use of your time and energy. but also if you trust the robot people will say babysit my kid right like like that feels and to me the reason i use that as the example is like that feels like you broach the the true spirit

of this whole thing is like is this a machine or is it actually a replacement for a human in a way that you trust so now now we're going from the opposite we're extrapolating too much in the president, I think we're jumping to a level of technology that is probably further away than, like you said, where are we going to see them? Well, they're already happening in the factories, and the reason they need humanoids is because right now the Amazon ones, they're not able to grab something, pull it down, and go through it. So they're different kinds of robots. They're more like Roomba robots that are very good. Japan, they're already in the hospitals in a meaningful way, and they need them there because they don't have... Japan has an interesting case

study on this because they haven't had immigration so if you think what's happened in this country we need more nurses we need we need more people to take care of the older demographic in japan they've already started the process of realizing we can't replace these jobs and we have an enormous amount of people you know china is going to go through the same thing so i think that's one of the reasons why in china and japan and asia in general they're getting more comfortable with the robotics involved in their life but i think the hospital is going to be a place that that human interaction with a robot is probably going to be first so you can go online and you can see them in the hospitals in japan they're not humanoids they're not going through this in

this way but i'm sure that that'll be the first place and then once you connect that human element it'll probably it'll probably happen here slower partly because of the i believe that we've got other needs that we want to use them for and we're also at a place where from a wealth perspective it's not going to replace jobs as much as whenever i hear people say you're going to get rid of all jobs i'm like well maybe the right thing that happens is people work less hours a week maybe what happens is the people that want to work from home work from home and the robots are inside there's different ways it doesn't it isn't a binary thing if you have a job or you don't have a job so i think the human interaction is going to take time for people to get used to it and

remember when people were saying i won't get in an uber and again this was very early why would anyone get into a car that's owned by someone else as opposed don't get in a car the stranger exactly so we had to break down all of that technology and it took a while probably longer than we remember seven eight years and for a lot of people your parents maybe they didn't go in for 10 years so it'll take time and when you look out right now are there sectors in uh either bitcoin crypto ai stocks that uh you think are under evaluated or discussed right like one of things i always um i always try to catch myself because when you read the headlines you pay attention to the current events everyone's talking about a lot of the same stuff but

there's certain things you say i i think this is really interesting right now no one's talking about it yet yeah so i i've i've kind of called this the age of the the market regime of buying boring stuff um for the last probably four years aside from 2022 when When COVID came and we juiced the system with a lot of money, gambling took off. And so that helped the altcoins. It helped Bitcoin. It helped the stocks like quantum stocks and Palantir and things you were willing to pay any multiple for.

It was all momentum based. No kid wants to go out and buy Cigna. They don't want to go out and buy, you know, Becton Dickinson. They don't want to go buy Exxon or Chevron. But those are all part of the economy. And so I think my overall theme, and I'm doing this for 22V Research, which is trying to highlight to people that I think we might be at the age of the go-go software themes and just jumping into stuff.

That's very good for Bitcoin. So the people that watch this for Bitcoin, you actually want a situation where people are making 15% a year in the stock market on boring stuff as opposed to making 15% on the sexy stuff while the boring stuff's not moving and the reason is because bitcoin is not a boring thing and that means that the competition for it if you view it as it's a high-end thing it's it's caviar of investments and well you want other caviar to not be working so that you only have one thing to go to and that's why i really do believe this is the network effect year for Bitcoin or for the crypto world. And so on the boring stuff, healthcare, energy, utilities,

financials, I think they're all going to do well because they're going to benefit from AI as late adopters that are getting the agents and everything there. And they have good businesses with revenue. On the other side, I think the sexiness is going to go towards the crypto side. I think you have to believe in that because if the economy is growing, we know that means liquidity is going in and bitcoin will do well but i think that's where by the i'm gonna say by june the warmth is across the country they're on the golf course and people are starting to talk about hey how much bitcoin do you actually own because the growth companies are just not going to work as well as they did i think that makes uh that makes a lot of sense um where can we send people

to uh find the work that you're putting out so um for the stuff that i'm doing just for everyone to keep up on things they can find me on my youtube channel they can find me in sub stack sub stack pieces are just thought-provoking they're excellent pieces excellent pieces they're meant to give people something to think about and then for more institutional people that want the deeper dive research on specific companies and more in their 22v research they can find me in there amazing well thank you so much for doing this uh every single person i talked to starts talking about this i said just go read what jordy's writing um so please uh please keep doing it thanks