The Pomp Podcast - #1553 Jordi Visser | This Is the Year Bitcoin Goes Parabolic

Episode Date: May 24, 2025

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we talk about bitcoin, a potential bitcoin upside collapse, global liquidity, national debt, bonds, AI, Nvidia, and is the US being quiet about bitcoin a strategic move?=======================Figure Markets is where crypto meets real-world finance. Trade 24/7 with speed and transparency, borrow against your crypto with no credit checks, and earn—all on-chain. Stocks and real estate trading are coming soon, giving you 24/7 access and instant settlement. It’s the best of TradFi and DeFi in one platform. Get started today at https://www.Figure.com/pomp!Disclosures: https://www.figuremarkets.com/disclosures/=======================Maple Finance is where real money meets real yield. With over $1.5B managed, Maple offers secure lending, Bitcoin yield, and premium DeFi assets like syrupUSDC. Get started today at https://www.maple.finance !=======================Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Created by Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum, Polkadot empowers users to build decentralized applications with ease. Backed by industry leaders, making it a preferred choice for big names, Polkadot stands out as a leading choice for investors seeking a reliable, future-proof solution in the growing world of Web3 technology. Learn more at https://polkadot.com/.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

At Desjardins Insurance, we put the care in taking care of business. Your business to be exact. Our agents take the time to understand your company so you get the right coverage at the right price. Whether you rent out your building, represent a condo corporation, or own a cleaning company, we make insurance easy to understand so you can focus on the big stuff. Like your small business. Get insurance that's really big on care. Find an agent today at Desjardins.com slash business coverage.

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got an amazing episode with Jordy Visser. His 30 years on Wall Street has prepared him for this exact moment right now. He has a couple of things that you're going to want to hear, including remember

when he told you that a Bitcoin short squeeze was going to happen? We just broke all time highs. Was that the short squeeze? Jordy says we haven't even started yet. And he explains exactly what he thinks is going to happen. On top of that, bond yields are going up. Shouldn't that be bad for certain assets? Jordy explains what actually that might be a good thing. You're not going to hear a lot of this information anywhere else. So make sure you're paying attention. And of course, we talk about the national debt, AI, what's going on at the White House, and much, much more. Hope you guys enjoy this conversation. Here's my latest with Jordy Visser. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast

are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Today's episode is sponsored by Figure Markets, the place to go to earn yield and borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum. Figure Markets crypto backed loans lets you borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with up to a 75% loan to value ratio, one of the highest in the industry. Whether you're looking to reinvest and double down back into more Bitcoin, cover everyday life expenses, or just have cash on hand, these loans make it simple.

Interest rates start as low as 12.5% with no credit checks, no long applications, and no prepayment penalties. Worried about using your Bitcoin as collateral to someone you don't know? Figure Markets is a subsidiary of Figure, the largest non-bank HELOC lender in the United States with over $14 billion in home equity unlocked and founded by Mike Cagney, who founded SoFi. Sign up today at figure.com slash POM, or download their app to explore all their offers. They're currently giving away $50 to new users who deposit and trade $100. Explore crypto, loans, earning opportunities, and more with them. Go to figure.com slash POM. Today's episode is brought to you by Maple, the go-to place for on-chain asset management.

There aren't many teams in crypto who manage real money the right way, but Maple does. Maple now manages over a billion dollars, combining serious finance experience with DeFi innovation. I use Maple because they make it simple to earn real yield, whether that's allocating stable coins for over-collateralized lending to institutions, depositing Bitcoin to their institutional Bitcoin yield offering, or accessing their premium DeFi assets like Syrup USDC. If you're serious about putting capital to work, then go to maple.finance to learn more. Once again, that's maple.finance. Go check them out today. Today's episode is brought to you by Polkadot.

Polkadot offers secure, scalable, and decentralized blockchain technology that perfectly aligns with the needs of innovative projects. It was developed by Gavin Wood, one of the co-founders of Ethereum and the creator of Solidity. Polkadot aims to build an internet where users have full control over their data and their applications. Polkadot offers tons of unique features, a shared security model, along with a new auction model and significant implementations like ASIC banking. Given these characteristics, it's easy to understand why Polkadot is gaining more and more traction in the cryptocurrency world. Some people even are talking about it as the AWS of Web3. Now, companies such as Mythical Games, Astro Network, and over 50 other independent blockchains

with hundreds of applications already leverage Polkadot's technology to power their platforms. If you're looking for a reliable, scalable, and cutting-edge solution, Polkadot seems to be the top choice for industry players. Go check them out today at Polkadot.com. All right, Jordy, I thought a great place to start this conversation is you were right. No one else is going to give you that credit, but I'm going to give you that credit because you told me, you said Bitcoin, possible short squeeze, we could be starting to run here. That was two, three, four weeks ago.

Bitcoin now, new all-time high, $110,000, $111,000 recently. What is happening and what is driving the price higher in your opinion right now? Well, first of all, this wasn't the short squeeze I'm looking for. So we may have made new all-time highs, but I think this came from a combination of factors. The big thing that I don't think gets enough attention, we actually are moving, vol's been going down. So when there's a short squeeze, you're going to have a correlation between the price going higher and vol going higher. The large short call option positions, which are still out there, that's keeping us from moving faster than we otherwise would.

But the buying to me is still coming from corporate adoption. It's coming from the numbers that you keep seeing about everyone across the planet, in my opinion, is buying a little bit more because it has distanced itself from fiat assets. This year has been the point in time where most of the conversations I have with people that I talk to on a regular basis, and I'm going to say this for the first time on here, the number one thing for Bitcoin to go higher and to have the short squeeze is for long-term rates to go higher. So you're not going to see this. This is the reason we're doing this is because I started embarking on how Bitcoin fit into the future of macro. Most macro people I

talked to, this is not even a part of the conversation, neither is AI. So from the network effects point, we've talked about it. AI is a driving factor to more volumes, more stable coin, more transactions, more tokens, everything, which will just lead to more money entering this ecosystem. But the most powerful move that I thought would take more like four years of Donald Trump. He's pushed everything and all the chips onto this year. I am convinced we are going to have a short squeeze. And I've talked about Bitcoin doubling this year. The distribution to me of where we could end up this year before the end of the year is starting to shift much higher. And the reason is because we haven't had the short squeeze yet. And now rates are moving

higher and rates moving higher is not bearish for Bitcoin. It's going to accelerate. All right, let's explain this. Right. So when you say rates are moving higher, just very elementary, you're talking about long rates pushing up why are they going up and then what impact does that have on bitcoin in your opinion so let's go back to the white paper um at that time the number one reason why this was an interesting thing is not because the government was going to fall just because the banking system was in trouble and the banking system is one of the three pillars of the fiat system so if you have a situation where you've got corporates you've got banking and you've got government and they're kind of all in the system and you want to decentralize it all right well

the banking system is really important so at that time you had the equity prices of banks going down and you had their bond prices going down with yields blowing out and spreads going because they were going to default so that's when the beginning happened to where the government started taking the debt on their books so we had seven trillion of of debt back then now we have 36 trillion so it started in 2020 when bitcoin started in 20 or sorry in 2009 2008 2007 in 2020 is when we actually gave a corporate bailout and that corporate bailout when we printed all that money was okay now you guys can go out and you can move out your borrowing 10 years 20 years 30 years 100 years in some cases they move rates to zero and corporations took their debt out the government

has short-term debt and the long-term debt which they don't have control over is starting to scream the same thing that the banks scream that is the fiat system realizing at this point we have a problem so for everyone who wants to extrapolate tariffs mean we're going to have an equity collapse you're ignoring the fact that remember it was only three months ago there's a bond put trump won't let rates go higher and he probably won't let them go too high because that would be a problem. So anyone who's now saying, I'm going to short bonds, bond vigilantes and go through it, that's not the macro trade. It is the pressure point because it's saying that we have a deficit problem, we have a debt problem, and we just put a tax bill in which is not addressing that.

So the government and Donald Trump has said, we don't care. But it's not just U.S. debt. JGBs, gilts in the U.K., all bonds around the world on the longer end are seeing pressure go higher, partly because they're in a similar situation, but partly what we've talked about, which is the US doesn't want to be the global reserve currency anymore. And that has, when the dollar weakens, tenure rates should go higher. Because if there's repatriation happening, everyone's like, we're all in this for ourselves. Let's bring the money back from the US. It has a negative side. Now, I'm going to keep going and extrapolate it a little bit further. Bill Ackman is in the press today for an interview he did at Austin. And he's attacking Harvard

and saying that their book, which is heavily into something we've talked about here, long-duration assets, he's specifically saying private equity, VC, and real estate. The problem is as rates go higher, those assets are under pressure, and AI is also hurting them as well. We don't have to go through that. But the problem is a good portion of the global assets are long-duration assets. He just named their portfolio. I could throw in Apple, Microsoft, Google.

long duration assets or anything in technology where your multiple is at a high level and you're dependent 10 years from now from somehow earning that out in competition against ai so the competition of ai and long rates technology and innovation and long rates is putting pressure and bitcoin's at all-time highs with all of that going on what i don't think people realize is what does bitcoin have it has liquidity it's outside the system those are the two dominant factors right now So the fact that that pressure is brewing to where Harvard is saying they're going to sell some of their private equity and Ackman's going, well, if they do that, everyone's got to take marks on this because the beauty is you have illiquid assets.

You don't have to take mark to market. The Middle East, there was a lot of press in there about, hey, we're going to dump ours. We're not happy with not getting any cash back on these long duration assets. The pressure is growing on the bond market and the fiat system is heavily weighted in long duration assets. Now, the governments are going to not allow this to collapse, but I believe before the end of the year, with rates going higher, it's more likely every day that we're going to have capital controls.

It's more likely every day that we're going to have some kind of stimulus or some kind of QE to buy long duration bonds. We're going to have some change in Fannie and Freddie. They're magically starting to be brought into the picture to help mortgages, allow people maybe some second mortgages. Doesn't really matter. The dollar is weakening. The whole system is kind of fracturing.

The macro trade is not to short stocks on this. It's not to fade that the governments won't figure something out. It's to realize that everyone's going to be looking for assets outside the system. That's gold. That's Bitcoin. That's how it all lines up. The only part I left out is I am still convinced with inside Bitcoin and watching the way the option market trades and the way that the futures trade at such a premium to spot that there is going to be a squeeze where someone who keeps selling Bitcoin higher is going to get caught in this whole thing. And we're going to see a week where it's up 10, 20, 30,000 in a week. And that's the interesting part about Bitcoin. We always worry about stocks collapsing.

ever since 1987, there's been a change in the option market. I think there's going to be an upside collapse in Bitcoin at some point this year. When you say upside collapse, explain how that works and then who gets caught, right? Because it's a very interesting thing of normally when there's leverage, when there's issues, people who are long an asset and it goes up, they're good. They're betting on it to go up. If it goes against them and it goes down, then you get a bunch of collapses and issues and bankruptcies, whatever. You're saying kind of the opposite here, that actually there may be pain in the Bitcoin market as Bitcoin's price goes up. Yeah. And that's the part. I think the selling, everyone kind of looks, there's been a

lot of buying. You can see sailors buying. Who's selling? So the option market continues to say that it would be people selling to get yield on one side. So if you can get, and I've talked about it before, I mean, 30% out of the money Bitcoin for out to September, you can get a yield of like 3% to 4%. In the market, it's called selling volatility. And PIMCO was known for it a lot. They would sell strangles around the bond yield to get an enhanced yield. So in Bitcoin, there's a lot of people that have been selling upside to monetize some yield. At the same point, you know this as well as I do, a lot of people don't sell their Bitcoin ever. So there's people that have a lot of net worth that have been created by owning stuff since 2010, 2012. And

it's not just in the US, it's a global asset. So when people think about it, I think they think that the wealth is here. I think it's spread all over the globe. And Asians in particular love yield enhancement strategies as well. So I think the problem is going to be that people have probably sold upside volatility in much bigger size than people realize. And if they get called on this, and I use the reference point, nickel, that was a production. So in Bitcoin, it would be a miner if it was a similar thing. And so a miner anywhere around the globe that's been selling against their future production could be in a situation where they've sold options and we've gone through the strikes and now they have to turn around and start buying. And the one thing I

always remember about Bitcoin, the way GameStop traded where you had that short squeeze, I envision a very similar thing in Bitcoin and in a lot of parts of the market that if the pressure starts and you see someone turn around and need to buy, I just don't know who's going to be the seller at that point. My question will be at some point this year, who is the seller in the middle of one of these squeezes? Very similar to when we have a put the other way. And this is the beauty of Bitcoin. There is a finite amount, so it is a scarce thing. And if it's going up and you have a lot of people holding that never sell, at some point you sold too much on lending and you've created too much leverage, it'll create a squeeze. And so when that happens, to me, there's a lot of

market structure stuff you're talking about. I always think about Bitcoin is unique because there's a supercharged megaphone attached to it. I mean, Bitcoin goes up $1,000, people yell and scream. Bitcoin goes up another $1,000, people yell and scream, right? It dominates the media headlines. Like it almost feels like all of these others, you know, the nickel market does not have like nickel maxis who are yelling and screaming when nickel goes up or there's a short squeeze. People may, you know, oh, I see what happened there. They may write about it in a, you know, kind of a traditional research report maybe it gets mentioned on tv if bitcoin has a short squeeze and you don't like bitcoin put earplugs in get off the internet because there is going to be

victory laps all over the place right now there are very real risks to this like it does feel like it's a perpetual kind of reinforcing cycle is once the price starts to move you then get the like megaphone going and that's coming now not just from hardcore bitcoiners like you know i lovingly say that Larry Fink is the CMO of Bitcoin. If he goes on TV and he says something positive, the messenger matters way more than the message. Yeah. If you have Wall Street and the Bitcoiners working together to say Bitcoin's the thing, Bitcoin's the trade, and it's moving and proving them right. I mean, have we ever seen an asset that would get that much attention? And so you just hit on a critical thing whenever people try to value something. So like one of the

best performing assets since the end of March, so before Liberation Day, is Fartcoin. So I bring this up. Makes sense. Yeah, it makes perfect sense. Logical sense. Fundamental reason for everything else. There's no narrative for Fartcoin. It's just, it's going higher. It's funny. People are making money on it. For Bitcoin, everything that I talked about for that introduction of five, 10 minutes, that's the narrative to me that will come out. The fiat system is breaking down in front of our eyes. It's not allowed to completely break. It's just showing that it's looking for a change. At the same time, AI is accelerating. There was an interview with CZ this week that I listened to, and I found it interesting. Smart guy. I'm sure you've interviewed

him before. But he made a specific statement that we've talked about, which is AI and AI agents are changing the global economy and they're accelerating the need for the ecosystem of stable coins and even admitted he got one thing wrong. And I like to see people that are visionaries in the space that we're in very early. And I like to find out what they got wrong. It's stable coins. And so stable coins value for the ecosystem and its value just continues to grow. And so I think the narrative is shaping this year, the stable coin bill. You could look back at the end of this year, and if Bitcoin was $300,000, $400,000, $500,000, you look back, there is a narrative that you could say, oh, fundamentally, this makes sense. But your point, I completely agree. This

will be a megaphone situation where all of the people that have been saying this is the thing to have, not gold. Gold's up now 28% year-to-date. Bitcoin's up 18% year-to-date. Remember when it was gold was up, Bitcoin was down, the reacceleration's coming. Also, if you remember, a month ago, two months ago, there was two things that the Bitcoiners were yelling and screaming about. We talked about on this show I've done, at this point, feels like tens of videos about. Bitcoin will follow global liquidity, Bitcoin will follow gold. So global liquidity was up and you could see Bitcoin had not yet run. Gold's price had run, you could see Bitcoin had not run. And people were saying between 100 to 150 days after gold runs,

that bitcoin historically has run as well we're starting to hit that time period right and so again you can't always look at history but damn is it a pretty good guide in terms of what to expect and so we now feel like as we saw those two things happen you have kind of bitcoin going the other thing that i think has changed from a narrative perspective is um i was pretty bullish on doge being able to cut into spending just the lack of uh maybe fiscal responsibility is definitely there. Elon Musk, he's pretty good at cutting out costs, right? He put together a great team, all that stuff. I believe that they had a sports car that was going down the highway at 100 miles an hour, and they were going to do everything that they said they were going to do. And they

ran into the wall of bureaucracy and media, who frankly fought them tooth and nail at every single thing and prevented them from making any sort of material changes that are actually needed. Not because the changes aren't there to be made, but because basically they got fought. And so I think that now you see Besant, he verbally is waving the white flag. I don't hear about balanced budgets this much anymore. I don't hear about yields coming down. What I hear is we're going to grow our way out, which I put grow our way out into the finance vernacular translator as we're printing, debt's going to explode, inflation may come

back, let's play ball, asset prices are going to go up. Is that how you read that kind of situation? Yeah. So the dollar is weakening, which is a part of this equation that has helped the situation that I think has enabled them to choose the debasement path. So I think they wanted. You know what? I don't even want to say wanted. I every single time the one common thread you hear with Donald Trump. And if you if you look at what Ackman said, I believe he collects information from everyone. And so he may not know all the specifics about every point, But there's so many different levers that can be pulled to deal with the situation.

It doesn't have to be get the deficit down in four years. It could be let's try to get it down in four years, but let's do it a different way. So I think that they realized and they changed. But the other thing, and this is, again, why it gets back into Bitcoin, it's the bond yield. It's the fact that, so I'm a student of markets. If you go back to 1984 and you go back to when 10-year yields were above 10%, and if you look at a long-term chart of bond yields from 1984 until 2022, it is a ski slope that is just very linear.

Charts don't look like that over time. We kept making lower lows and lower highs continuously. So the reason that that was necessary is because every time that we had a recession, we had to move rates lower and the corporations move their debt. So it was kind of like, okay, we've borrowed at 4%. Okay. Now we borrowed a 3%. Okay. Now we borrowed a 2%. Okay. And finally you got to 2020, every corporate moved out. And at that point we had, we had the, the technology companies, which have no debt, the big ones and everything changed. And now the 10 year yield didn't matter for the private sector as much now matters for the government side. So if you go back to where

we were in January and you think about everything that's played out, when we had the peak in Bitcoin, the number one narrative was that we're going to get a Bitcoin reserve. You don't hear anything about a strategic Bitcoin reserve now. We've gone back to the all-time highs, not because of speculation on the Bitcoin reserve. We've gone there because 10-year yields are now higher. And that ski slope that was down forever, we're at the highest level, we're about to be at the highest level in about 15 years since 2007, 2008, which means the entire fiat system has finally changed officially. And this is the time where Bitcoin should go through a parabolic move, in my opinion. The only thing I'll say about the strategic

Bitcoin reserve is maybe not talking about it at the moment is strategic. I agree. And I think they will start talking about it again this year. We'll see what happens. But the people that are there, I think they have said what they're going to do. I have a lot of faith that they're going to do what they said. So, I brought it up to say more that for people who are fading this, you've been able to get to all-time highs without speculation over it. No one's buying today because that's coming. I believe with the sovereign wealth fund, I believe the things that I've talked about, about bit bonds, different ways these systems are going to merge without any

doubt in my mind so that's the way to say it is if the us did do a strategic bitcoin reserve by the end of the year it has to be much higher than it is today um because the systems have officially merged if we issue a bond that has an attachment to bitcoin where we're then using those funds to buy bitcoin i happen to believe they are going to do something they said let's get through the stable coin that's the first part let's get through the genius act let's get through okay well we're getting through that now so the second half of the year there should be something along those lines i agree with you yeah i think it's going to be very uh very interesting let's see what happens um another thing is uh we've got nvidia earnings coming we've got um a lot of people speculating

about what's going on actually in ai you talked about the long duration assets um what is your expectation from an nvidia and does it matter as much as it used to matter which i mean nvidia i mean you might as well had a party every time they were doing earnings you know last year does it it really matter as much now uh so nvidia is the same price as it was a year ago like almost exactly uh and yet their earnings have gone much higher so one thing that's happened is the multiples have contracted i don't think it matters from the perspective of people violently jumping in but in just talking with macro people on a weekly basis there's still a belief that ai is number one overhyped um which is is shocking to me uh two podcasts that i listened to this week if people

want to go just hear how fast things are moving eric schmidt finally released a ted talk that he he he was on it it's great and again he just emphasizes so many things in there including the power thing we've talked about and then sergey brin was interviewed by the all-in podcast whenever you can hear sergey brandon at google i think it's great because he i mean he he doesn't work for the company but he is working at the company right now and coding he is the company he is the company for sure but to hear him speak about this being the most amazing time in the history of computer science and how he literally got back in the company because he didn't want to miss the insane moves that are happening so nvidia itself i think is important as the final

short covering rally. I think that's the one, that thing and rates are the two places where right now I can hear macro people are going through. But the rate situation I think is going to be fine for the near term because I think it's going to be related to growth coming back more than what people expected. I'm going to do something for 22V this week or next week on Disney. And I'm going to segue a little bit from NVIDIA into Disney so people can get a grasp of the importance of AI for investors right now. Disney is a company whose revenue per employee is growing rapidly and it's growing rapidly

because AI is not a technology. It is more like the internet or electricity. It's a macro theme that I don't think macro people spend any time on. I don't think they have the time to do it. I don't think it's their expertise. That's why I sit here with you every week and I do not go back to that world

is that I'm using it every day and I'm seeing it. I think what people are going to start to realize is the profit margins in the S&P 500 are going to continue to remain high. NVIDIA is kind of the last thing of Q1 to actually see what it was. All of the MAG-7, I mean, I think their year-over-year numbers are up 28%. The S&P 500 is nine. X them. So this is still an AI story. And I think NVIDIA matters a lot, mainly because the sentiment is so negative right now. What is the impact of the AI stuff on the national debt? so i i did write something this week on how from the debt and deficit perspective people have to start putting in what exponential innovation means

so we hear the word agi all the time well with agi comes a lot of things um medicare and medicaid i think health and human services is like two trillion dollars of our spending which means the health of people if people could live longer ray kurzweil is redoing his human beings will be immortal by 2030. i mean you have to listen i mean the guy has had a lot of predictions that have been right and the reason he's saying it is the embodiment of inference so we've talked about inference i wrote something on it last week the embodiment is about nanobots so nanobots in your body that are killing off whatever things are entering your mind he's saying that will be a possibility by 2030 whether we have enough power for it battery small enough

all these things it's going to take longer but his point was it will be doable at that point so the entitlement thing is a big portion of this ai makes is is a productivity gain it will help in health care it will help us find diseases early and if you can find things early then people can be healthier later i do think the health of human beings will be in an exponential move and if two trillion of our dollars in spending is there it will have an impact on the deficit for sure and given that the spending bill the big beautiful bill which uh obviously is uh maybe not what people were looking for when it came to cutting spending um are they counting on things like ai to be on the other side of that equation and kind of you know help uh on some of this stuff it just

feels like if you are in a silo and you create a bill like this you gotta be counting on something else right like and i don't know i'm not in the room um no one has told me what they're counting on but it just feels like that's a grenade you're throwing in the room and maybe you're just like screw it like hey we know that there's gonna be collateral damage and we think that's the right thing to do i would probably disagree with throwing the grenade but maybe that is the plan um but could ai be like this and then you're just like oh this is so deflationary we can do this that are all kind of like met out i so i think over the long term it will have a large impact but i don't think that's inside the white house's thought process at this no matter how many smart

people they have in there um when you have a situation where you're in kind of a death spiral with debt meaning okay we have debt to gdp of 120 and we have seven eight trillion more debt to bring to the market this year and we've got a deficit of two trillion dollars of which we're not going to make a major dent in it this year i i think they're doing the kick the can down the road game and trying to restructure the trade and figure out some way to monetize stuff that's why at the end of the day we're we're foreigners on 20 net 26 trillion dollars of our assets So when I say capital controls, I think capital controls are an option that will be brought up.

It's been brought up by senators before. What exactly would they entail? Because capital controls could be like hardcore CCP, like, you know, you may disappear if you do something, or it could be more like we're going to disincentivize you through various tools to not take the money out of the United States. So, I mean, you just said something important. And part of the reason the fiat system doesn't work is because China does have capital controls and they're pegged to our currency.

So the two biggest economies in the world have one currency effectively, and they've got capital controls and we don't. So we just let anyone come and invest. This would be more. And again, this has been different ways it's been talked about. So I'm just saying they will find a way to do this. Could be restructuring of the debt out to 100 years for a century bond. or it could be that when you sell the assets, there's a 50 basis point tax on taking your

money back to the country. If they announced this, the dollar would go down 15, 20%. But I think the reason the dollar is going down, in fact, if you go back to liberation day and then you go forward to the bottom in equities, a lot of times the great thing about markets are you look at what's still working. So gold peaked at the bottom there. The dollar is getting very close to the lows. there hasn't been a bounce in the dollar. It lasted for about a week. Stocks are still sitting near the highs of the move. Yes, they're down this week and they've given back a little bit, but it hasn't been a big move and rates are back up to the upper end. So if you ask me, weaker bonds and a weaker dollar are the structural things. And I think before this

goes too far, there is a benefit that happens with a weaker dollar. The U.S. is getting, I mean, think about Netflix or any of these service-based countries. So we only focus on the good side, most of the exports we have are services. So let's just use Netflix. If Netflix is charging someone a certain amount of euros and they're bringing this in, they're getting more dollars for the euros today. So you're just kind of going through this in terms of, okay, we have a weakening currency. That means it's good for exports. It's good for the manufacturing side, but we don't manufacture much, but we do export services is the benefit that comes there that kind of evens it out. The capital controls to me are going to be a discussion to help with the

deficit and the debt. I just don't think it's going to be received well by the market, but that's why Bitcoin should have another leg to it. What's the bear case for Bitcoin right now? I mean, at this particular point, I would say somehow that rates go down and that stocks are a comparable asset. The big thing with Bitcoin this year is there's not a lot of assets that working. So if Bitcoin has been called by most people a risk asset and it's under-owned, the risk assets are not doing well, the ones that people own. So I think it would be the dollar just resumes its global reserve currency status. The probability of that to me is I just can't come up with a scenario that it happens. That would stop Bitcoin from having a parabolic move. I have viewed

Bitcoin until this year as a simple rotation from fiat assets into other assets. So if you ask me, what's the most powerful thing? If people can't buy another asset that's working as well as it, and their portfolio is flat because they own too much mega cap tech, which is what's happening this year. Wait, I want to buy something that's working. How much has Bitcoin up this year? It's up 19. I'm flat over here. They haven't had that problem before because the mags haven't come. That's one. Second thing would be if all of a sudden liquidity picks up and private equity and venture capital are doing well. Another comparable thing. Well, the problem is, as we're seeing with Harvard as like a microcosm. Harvard is a major story for Bitcoin, in my

opinion. It's places that have gone into illiquid assets to generate returns. Bitcoin's generating returns, and it is the most liquid asset if you include the fact that it trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week. So I think people are looking for liquidity. I think they're looking for innovation-related risk assets that are still working. I don't think Americans and high net they're going to go more into europe and japan and every place else in the world as their portfolio i think bitcoin just goes from a one percent waiting for traditional investments to two to three to four to five and when you throw in the fact that corporations are really desperate and are doing more of the treasury activity and it's working i the bear scenario i come up with is that

the dollar rallies and the fiat system gets new legs i just don't see that happening i think trump basically through a match down and you can't you can't roll back what happened is there a world where um the united states has to nationalize coinbase strategy miners something to start trying to get more um bitcoin on this balance sheet for some sort of strategic purpose? I don't think so. So if we didn't have as much gold as we have, and this is the thing. So the logic I've used is that Bitcoin, for the most part, will remain a private sector, non-fiat instrument. And for countries, gold will remain the predominant one. And I think it's really hard to imagine, like you said, if they come out and say, we're

going to go buy Bitcoin, who's going to sell it anymore? The US government's going to buy it. So I've kind of come to the conclusion that the right way to do this is actually through structured products and rechanging kind of the capital structure using gold as kind of one of the pieces. So I think that's why gold and Bitcoin are moving together. view them as one is the private sector embracing bitcoin the other is the public sector which has a hard time embracing bitcoin and because of democracy and everything else and gold ends up

being the choice for the public side and that we really never get to the point where we need to nationalize that i i do think ai people underestimate how ai is going to change this whole situation with debt with expenses and everything ai is a neutralizing force to me it's just it can't happen in the next four years it's more of a 15 20 30 year story but when you can envision robots working walking down the street humanoids you know 15 years from now when you're actually getting used to that of course at that point i think the debt and the deficits become kind of ridiculous in my opinion yeah it is um it's fascinating to kind of watch all this because i also think that the stories in the media have been very uh counter accurate maybe

it's the best way to put it um they theoretically make sense like if you go and talk to a bunch of academic professors and they tell you you're like oh this sounds smart but they've been wrong retail seems to have one mode now i see dip i buy dip it actually is pretty logical though institutions haven't gotten the message yet, which is surprising to me. Why do you think that is? Number one, using outdated models and having... I wrote a substack yesterday. It was on my favorite book and the one that had the biggest impact on my life back in 2009. So right around the time that the white paper came out before I even believed it's Bitcoin or something, I read a book called The Art of Learning by Josh Waitzkin.

Great book. a great book and and has had a i've read it multiple times and i will not say that about many books but it it it forced me to think about how do i learn something new because at the time people called me dr doom and gloom i traded emerging markets i only saw bear markets i came back to the us in 99 just before the dot-com bubble i made a lot of money during 2007 2008 2009 believing that banks were going out of business so i i think being able to adjust to these times is very difficult, but in particular, it gets back to the long duration asset side. Everyone does this game of extrapolation. What retail seems to know, which the more information

you have right now, oh my God, rates are going higher. It means equities are going to collapse. Homebuyers aren't going to be able to buy homes. And they go down this extrapolation and retail just goes, oh, rates are going high. The government has to do stimulus. And so this is a good time to buy. And I just think they don't have the history books in their mind. I think they've just seen, all my data points say that when we get pressure points on the government and the front page says that the Liz Trust moment is happening, and it's where we are right now, and then everyone should go back. Everyone go look at what happened when the Liz Trust moment was on the front page of the paper. Every macro guy will tell you, this was the time you wanted to be bearish. Go, hey,

what happened to the FTSE, the stock market in the UK? We haven't been lower at all. We've gone straight up since the Liz Trust moment. So yes, it fell for a little while, just like the tariffs. But right now, the tariffs are in the rear view mirror as a low. So if you get worried at Liberation Day and you didn't buy two days later, like retail did, you're screwed. And I think macro people, they overthink this thing at this point. And I think they're looking and depending too more on the fiat system and the way it worked out when the reality is this is about something else the governments have a printing press this is not about banks going out of business or corporations this is the government that can print money whenever they want and the downside is the

deficits and the debt never get better and that's why bitcoin rises at the same time so i think there's two things that are counterintuitive uh and paradoxical but they're both true younger generation whatever age whatever um it reminds me a lot of stanley Druckenmiller said uh i forget where he was working um he was the head of research and he gets called into his boss's i think his boss's boss's office and they say all right stan um he's like 28 and there's a bunch of older guys there who all trading whatever and they say uh it's your time you're gonna run the you know you're gonna run the book and he's like what are you talking about like all these guys have more experience than me but why am i gonna do it

and his boss has some version to him of uh do you know why they say they send young men to fight wars, because basically they're too dumb to realize how risky it is, right? And he says, all those guys out there on the trading floor, they all live through the bear market. They're going to be gun shy, but right now it's the time to be hyper-aggressive. And basically you're too stupid to know not to be hyper-aggressive, right? So paraphrase story, but pretty good. I think that's a lot of folks. That is one true thing about this younger generation is they didn't live through investing in 99. Many of them probably were coming of age in 07, 08, right they saw it but they weren't materially exposed to the market there's all these different

things the second thing that is also true is they are not complete amateurs because they've lived through more boom and bust cycles in crypto than they would have in the public markets so it's this weird dynamic where on one hand you don't have enough experience to actually be scared believe the models you know understand the academic theories all that kind of stuff But on the other hand, you're kind of like that guy who, you know, you see the meme of him smoking a cigarette, he's dirty, he's like, you know, at the end of the war, and he's just like, whatever. Right? Yep. And if stocks go down 10%, I literally went on television on Bloomberg, and I got a little note afterwards from somebody and they said, I can't believe you said that. And yeah, I think stocks were down like 5% at one point, I think Bitcoin's like 15%. I said, there's a drawdown for ants, right? Bitcoin, you know, 30% is kind of what you would expect with stocks. five percent kind of who cares right like that can happen one day in crypto and um but i think that's the mentality right it's like when you see something that's an 80 100 ball asset and then you go into the traditional markets you see this like little small tiny you know ant-like moves you're

kind of like what you guys are worried the stock went down five percent like buy right like it's not like smb's gonna go down 50 percent and so it's a weird dynamic because you're like on one hand that there's the lack of experience and knowledge actually is a benefit. On the other hand, they're very experienced with high volatility, big drawdowns, like, you know, essentially extreme risk-taking. You put those two things together and you're like purpose-built for a chaotic, uncertain, you know, macro environment like we have right now. Well, let me, so I got into markets and the two people that I read in Market Wizards before I was managing money and before I was a derivative trader, the two people that grabbed me were

Stan Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones. And luckily over time, I've had the ability to know both of them, to be on the other side of the phone with them, to sit with them. Stan also says something all the time, and it was reminded to me yesterday at breakfast, which is at the end of something I'll say, but what do I know? It's the humbling side. It's the side that The market will always win. Your job is not to be right. It's to make money. I think retail understands that far more than most educated people. Educated people are looking for the reason. That's why they don't understand fart coin. There is no story for it. Bitcoin, there's no intrinsic value for it. I think people in the crypto world and younger people, they're not

migrating to what the story is before they buy it. They're looking at the price. The reason I said paul and stan had an impact on me i immediately went out because they both said one thing in that book that was a venn diagram which was i love elliott wave theory okay elliott wave theory has nothing to do with a story you first look at the chart i don't trade anything buy anything without having a view on the elliott wave pattern at all i don't want to buy something at 52 week loads unless i think it's the end of a move and there's exhaustion and i'll buy anything that's that people hate because contrarian gives you better upside. But I want the pattern to make sense. And then I'm looking for something right now. I want to buy Brazil. Nobody wants to buy

Brazil. Their deficit's worse than ours. So people don't like it, but I like it because their bonds are going up, their stocks are going up and their currency's going up and their currency's at the weakest level since when I lived there. So Stan and Paul in particular, I think they have a lot more retail, modern day retail in them than the people who give all these reasons for stuff. They'll go look for a reason. But if you go read about when Stan bought Argentina and the ADRs after he heard Malay speak, he's like, I'm going to go buy stuff first and then I'll go do the work. The Elliott Wave pattern will lead there. I think retail is just much quicker and much more flexible in their mindset. They'll buy stuff, they'll get out of stuff. But I think knowing

the story in a world of exponential moves by the time, and I wrote this in there, it's like being on a car going 200 miles an hour as opposed to being on a bike. When you're on a bike, you're seeing everything. You're creating a story by looking. When you're going on a car 200 miles an hour, you can't see anything to create the story. By the time you create the story, you're now five miles ahead. I think retail is just very, very good at realizing I don't know anything. I'm just here to make money. I think that that's exactly what they're doing. And it's working. And a lot of them are running laps around hedge funds and all this stuff. And as they make more money, they become more confident in themselves, which is dangerous. But also, sometimes you're

just confident in being stupid. And that can be a very good strategy. Yeah. Always remember too, when volatility has been as wide as it as where the equity market can fall 20% and then go up 20%, the other thing that professional managers have is they have some kind of a loss level they have to protect on some kind of random time period. It could be a month. It could be a random, if you drop 3%, you're fired. This is why the market ends up in this situation. So volatility expands, but the liquidity terms don't expand, meaning, okay, every month we're measuring your performance. Every 3% we're measuring your performance. So if we get in a world where Donald Trump's just like, oh, tariffs are back on in Europe, 50%. Okay, Apple, you have to make

all your phones here. Oh, stock market falls. Then all the people that just covered their shorts are now going to be screwed. And so I think when you get in this position, retail doesn't have anyone managing their stuff. They're just like, yeah, you know what? I lost and i'm going to go back outside and go go hang out i'm not going to do this hedge fund managers they have to still perform or they get fired where can we send people to get all your information everything you're putting out uh viscer labs on x on substack on youtube the videos are all there and then 22v i think it's securities.com now they can read where i get a little bit more specific with things like disney brazil uh and the markets in general but they can find me anywhere i'm

Amazing. Thank you so much for doing this. We'll do it again in the future. Thanks, Anthony.