The Pomp Podcast - #1566 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | How Geopolitics Are Making Bitcoin Stronger

Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano many of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them

Starting point is 00:00:42 for hours while i ask questions in an effort to learn so it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform watch episodes on youtube and tell your friends and family about the podcast my goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's going

Starting point is 00:01:24 on guys today we got a great conversation with polina pompliano in this conversation we talk about what's going on with bitcoin the bitcoin treasury companies how iran and israel and all of the geopolitical conflict how that's impacting your portfolio and the price of bitcoin on top of that we also get into what's going on in the stock market why investors now like bitcoin the fact that the volatility is going down not up and then plenty gives a little bit of behind the scenes what happened over the weekend before we announced the deal in the public markets hope you guys enjoy this conversation with plena pompliano all right plena what's first topic you got all right let's talk geopolitics bitcoin's price dropped below a hundred thousand as the u.s you know

Starting point is 00:02:02 bombed some nuclear bases in iran on saturday however it is now i just checked at back at 105 000 because it doesn't matter so so how should investors just in general view these constantly volatile geopolitical events well i think the first thing is you got to remember that geopolitical events like this are a surprise by design so there's now reports coming out the united states sent some b-52s to guam everyone's like oh where are the b-52s let's look they're going west at the same time the u.s from missouri sent nine b-52s east no one saw it coming they got in they dropped the bombs and they got out no shots fired at u.s servicemen uh and women which is uh incredible feat uh 37 hours if i remember correctly uh flight now why is that important

Starting point is 00:02:49 it surprises the enemy it surprises the american people it surprises the investor so the surprise factor immediately people it's like the ground starts shaking an earthquake you're like wait what's going on let me just get my bearings so what do you do that uncertainty leads to a quick degree of fear if you fear what do you do sell sell sell and so you see algorithms and humans both sell now this happened over the weekend though you can't go sell your stocks you can't sell a lot of these assets because the hours of operations of the traditional exchanges So naturally what you get is you get a big sell-off in things like Bitcoin, et cetera.

Starting point is 00:03:24 As I predicted over the weekend is that it will come right back because ultimately it is a shock factor. So you see it go down and then it goes back up. And so what people I think have realized is, hey, everything is good. Everything's gonna be fine. Now, of course they did announce a ceasefire,

Starting point is 00:03:40 which is helping the assets recover as well. And we saw stocks go down on Monday. We saw other assets go down. So it is really just people in response. They didn't have anything else they could sell. So if you want to raise dollars, if you're worried, what do you do? You sell in almost like a panic, emotional response to the news, and therefore you lose money. I mean, that's what happened, right? If you were selling at 100, and now it's at 105, that wasn't smart. And so I just think that is the general thing. We've seen this happen before, with a lot of the Middle East conflict, when Iran shot, I think it was like 300 missiles at Israel, then same thing happened, Bitcoin sold off, and then it came back. And so it goes back to this idea that the people who tend to do best in the market are the people who lose their passwords.

Starting point is 00:04:22 Just chill. Stop looking at the chart. If you're spending your Saturday staring at a chart, we got a whole nother conversation we got to have. Instead, understand the asset that you own. Because if you bought Bitcoin and then all of a sudden Iran, Israel, and the United States start dropping bombs on each other and you're selling your Bitcoin, you don't understand what you own. And so it comes back to this idea that you have a asset that is decentralized, that is

Starting point is 00:04:51 censorship resistant, that cannot be seized. And it provides sovereignty for individuals, companies, financial institutions and countries. The more uncertainty, the more chaos, the more that we get towards this like fourth turning, the more valuable Bitcoin is going to be. And so to me, that is ultimately what we saw is we saw an uneducated emotional response. Bitcoin sells off, comes right back. Everyone chill out. You're fine. If you went to sleep on Friday, you woke up on Monday. You don't even really know what happened. Right. And that's the way that it should be. It's just keep a long time horizon. Bitcoin is not supposed to be a speculative tool. Yes, people do speculate with it. But ultimately, Bitcoin is to be held for decades. And if you do that, that tends to be in a much better position. okay um let's talk about how actually volatility with bitcoin has kind of cooled and bitcoin has become more central to people's portfolios koto um the investment firm it has this in list of the largest 40 tech quote-unquote companies by 2030 and and it ranks it by a 2030 market cap. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Revolut, and Applovin made the list and there's no Apple

Starting point is 00:06:08 or Google. What do we think? I don't know about all the other ones. I'll talk about Bitcoin. With Bitcoin, I think that there's this concept of what is the child story, like not too hot, not too cold is just right. Goldilocks. Goldilocks. So you can say that basically Bitcoin has now entered the Goldilocks of volatility. And what I mean by that is Bitcoin, when it is a 150 vol asset, institutions can't hold that. They can't see something go up thousands of percent and then drop 90%, right? It's too volatile. Bitcoin also is not that interesting to people if it only goes up 2% or 3% a year, right? So what you need is you need a higher degree of volatility than you could otherwise get in treasuries or stocks, but you need a low

Starting point is 00:06:49 enough volatility where institutions can wrap their head around it. And Bitcoin has now entered into that area. Bitcoin over the last five years, the compound annual growth rate is somewhere around 60, 65%. That's very attractive. The best hedge fund in history, Rentek, that is what they returned. So you now have entered, right? You just think of as volatility has fallen or as the compound annual growth rate has fallen, you now are entering a zone where the absolute best hedge fund in history is. So that crossover is pretty important because now it is fathomable to people they're like, oh, okay, 60%, that's high. But I at least have seen something like that before. If you show up and you're like, yeah, compound annual growth rate is 240%. The fact that it's

Starting point is 00:07:27 such a high percentage, they deem it's risky, and therefore they won't put it in their portfolio. I mean, you were talking to institutions back in what, 2018, 2019. Do you remember their reaction? Because it was very volatile then. Well, I think the institutions that I was fortunate enough to work with, who backed those funds, one of the things they liked about the structure that we created is that we put Bitcoin inside of a venture fund. Now, why do they like that? Because to them, they were only getting quarterly marks. So four times a year, they would be updated on what the whole portfolio was worth. So the private companies plus Bitcoin, if we had gone to them and said,

Starting point is 00:08:04 hey, we're going to buy Bitcoin in every week, every month, every quarter, we're going to give you these updates on just Bitcoin's price. And sometimes it's going to be up hundreds of percent, sometimes it's gonna be down 50%. They're like, we can't put that in our portfolio. It's too volatile so the way that we were able to get bitcoin into some of the portfolios of these organizations was we basically put a wrapper around it that was able to obfuscate the actual volatility of bitcoin say that word again no i say how you say it obfuscate i i don't need i don't think i've ever heard you yeah that's hide it you know hide it behind the curtain no i know what it yeah okay well i'm just saying wow that you just hit me with obfuscate yeah well i'm trying to

Starting point is 00:08:41 teach my children how to read write listen talk you know i gotta start escape i might start reading the dictionary to up my vocabulary so that i can help them just just very quick one time i this was years ago i didn't know that anthony had a full much of a vocabulary if at all and he was i just meant like you use simple words which i appreciated so he was on the phone i'm doing my work and he's pacing back and forth doing his phone call and all of a sudden i heard it would behoove you it would behoove that person where did you pull that out fraud yeah listen when you're have the intelligence level of me when you're in high school one of the things that you can do is you can really not care a lot and if every once in a while you pull a word out that people

Starting point is 00:09:28 are like don't expect you to have now now they're on their toes they're like wait a second this kid where did behoove come from? Where did these words come from? Because now they don't know, they can't put you in a box. So I got to- Let's just say I am bewildered by this. Okay. Well, the whole idea is that you can put it inside of a structure and you can hide the volatility. Now what's starting to happen though, is investors are saying, wait, the volatility is at a level that I actually want my portfolio. I want it to outperform my traditional assets and I can wrap my head around it. So they understand Bitcoin better. They understand what the volatility is and they see the trend. We have the benefit of time.

Starting point is 00:10:02 the compound annual growth rate is coming down. So you know that, Hey, today it's at 60 over the last five years, five years from now, or 10 years from now, maybe it's at 30 or 40, maybe it's at 20, right? Whatever the number is, it's going down, but you want to be able to capitalize that because it still outperforms your regular portfolio. And so I think that is really this idea that code two is talking about where they're like, okay, now investors are starting to put Bitcoin into the portfolio because the volatility has cooled. And so yes, individuals, the reason why they were attracted to Bitcoin and why most of the people watching or listening to this front ran all the institutions and countries is because you wanted max volatility you actually

Starting point is 00:10:37 did not want the volatility to cool you wanted up a thousand percent down 80 up a thousand percent down 80 you're cool with that the institutions are not and so now the volatility has come down that's why you see individuals i wouldn't do it but other individuals basically push way out on the risk curve in crypto they're saying okay well this bitcoin thing that doesn't move as much as Fort coin or whatever other coin I'm looking for max volatility. Let me go to, you know, shit coin land. Right. And so again, it goes back to what is somebody trying to optimize for? The institutions are not optimizing solely for upside volatility. What they are optimizing for is kind of a well-rounded asset. They want something that has some degree of asymmetry, but also they want

Starting point is 00:11:18 a thing that's not going to go down 80%. They want something that is resilient. They want something that now is starting to check all these boxes that Bitcoin brings to the table. They put in the portfolio and Sharpe ratio goes up, they actually get some non-correlation or lower correlation between their assets in their portfolio. And they still have a high enough degree of upside in Bitcoin that it outperforms some of the other assets and that makes it attractive. Perfect. Let's talk about stable coins. So on CNBC on Monday, you said people want to spend stable coins because they will be less valuable in the future, but they want to save Bitcoin because it will appreciate over time. Circle's stock has raised 600% since its IPO

Starting point is 00:11:57 and the U.S. Senate passed crypto legislation called the Genius Act last week, giving crypto industry the first major legislative win. Trump urged the House to pass it. He says, this is American brilliance at its best and we're going to show the world how to win with digital assets like never before. Just really quick before we get into it, can I just shout out our producer matt merlinski for these topics he does great research i'm just out here like a talking head matt how much do you pay for that this is this yeah this is something i mean this is just such good research all right polina is uh getting paid in bagels or something all right so uh stable coins are um stable coins are hilarious to me the great paradox of stable coins is they're

Starting point is 00:12:44 incredibly important and they don't matter at all. Same thing at the same time, right? Why do I say that? They're incredibly important because they are the way that many of these traditional financial institutions, politicians, emerging markets, they're all getting on board to this new digital world. They don't matter at the same time because they're just dollars. Dollars have existed for years, right? It's not some new crazy thing. Is it just like a digital dollar? I'm trying understand the best way to think about it if i ask you give me one dollar of physical cash you're going to hand it to me if i say to you send me a dollar on venmo or from your bank you still send me a dollar whether you handed it to me physically or what i would call an electronic dollar yeah

Starting point is 00:13:25 probably pay some in fees so it's not possibly but it's still one dollar it's just in a different form factor okay a stable coin is now just another form factor which is a digital token on a blockchain that represents that same dollar so whether it's physical electronic or digital it's still one dollar in what it's backed by my like digital dollar my physical the dollar that is on the blockchain is backed by u.s treasuries okay so they sit there you can go you can get them back right it's got the value behind it and so the whole idea again is they're important because they're onboarding people to the digital world it now is an ability for you to move without hours of operations low cost anywhere in the world immediate etc so basically the dollar gets more

Starting point is 00:14:06 utility, but it doesn't matter because it's just the dollar. So you're opening access, you're improving the usage of the dollar, but ultimately the actual asset itself is just $1. Wait, and just really quick, why is it different from just sending a digital dollar? If I want to send money to Bulgaria right now, I can do it via PayPal. Why is that different? Maybe. Maybe? It depends on what the country is. It depends on when you send it. It depends on what the fees are. There's a lot of stuff in there, right? So for example, let's say that on the weekend,

Starting point is 00:14:36 I may or may not have recently been involved in a transaction where people had to send wires. Well, the wires don't actually get sent till the weekdays. Oh, okay. And so there's hours of operations, right? Everyone has had the experience in business that they got to get to the bank or get online and send the wire before 2 p.m., right? There's all these things that happen that again are somewhat antiquated. If you move all of the money into a digital token that now can just move freely at any time for no cost to anyone. Now, what you're doing is you're opening access. You're reducing friction. There should be more velocity of money in the system. That's ultimately good for economies and for individuals. Do the banks like this? Well, the banks don't

Starting point is 00:15:16 like it if they can't participate. Are they participating? So when Tether and Circle are out there having a field day. Right. And the banks are sitting on the sidelines because they can't touch crypto. Right. The banks are advocating. They're saying we should create rules. This is nonsense yada yada whatever but recently two things happened uh one the banks who have been very clear to say if they we get the green light we definitely jump it in the stable coin game jp morgan came out they announced i think it was called the j uh jpmd i think is what they called it which is like a their version of a stable coin a little bit some changes they made but it's their version bank of america uh brian moynihan uh he said that uh they're gonna get in the game if they

Starting point is 00:15:52 get the approval and then the bank uh regulators just came out and they said that they are now going to reduce or remove this idea of reputational risk to a bank if they participate or touch things that are in crypto so what used to happen is if a bank signature silver gate etc if they were doing anything that had crypto relation uh relationship they would actually get dinged by the regulator and they would say oh that's reputational risk there's issues there now the regulators are saying we're not going to assign that to you if you participate in this industry uh which is kind of a big moment because now it again is one step closer to the bank's participating and so the banks are also rumored to be talking about should they come together

Starting point is 00:16:31 should we get a little uh oligopoly you didn't think i knew that word right but on top of that uh maybe they'll create a little consortium you know i knew that word right um and so as they create a partnership on wall street uh maybe what they will do is they will create a stable coin that all the banks will use and their idea is that they have a network effect they've got a walled garden they'll go to their customers and say use our products now to all the subscribers of the pomp letter since like 2018 look it up real quick pomp letter and then type uh corporate central bank i think is uh the letter that's big brain right there to remember what i wrote seven years ago um what is it what year no four months ago hold on a second are you looking for

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Starting point is 00:20:06 once again that's bitwisepomp.com bitwise p-o-m-p dot com as always remember investing is risky and carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before you invest so my whole thing was jp morgan tried this one time before they type in a jpm coin uh they launched something called jpm coin which was a test and what they said is we are going to have our corporate clients use jpm coin to move money within the bank what year uh is this five years ago something like that wells fargo is creating a no jp morgan jpm coin um and so when they did that uh and when they did that the whole idea that i said was you have to be careful that they do not launch these things with a dollar backing and then in the future they remove the dollar backing

Starting point is 00:20:51 and now they can just print coins at will they basically become a central bank themselves and that's what the u.s did the u.s basically removed the dollar uh the gold backing and they just can now print as many dollars as they want every bank on wall street would love to be able to do that if they could. So what I think is going to have to happen here is you have to create a rule that says if you launch a stable coin and you have a backing, let's say one to one to the U.S. dollar, you may never remove the backing in the future. You can't onboard a bunch of people with the promise that the coin is backed by something and then in the future, remove that backing, change the rules. And now all of a sudden you just have a money printer.

Starting point is 00:21:26 Is it the corporate central bank playbook? Like I said, what year? 2019. I was off by one year, six years ago. But I'm not. I've been talking about this for half a decade. I just realized I'm not a paying member of the palm platter, so I can't actually read it. But I do see the Corporate Central Bank playbook.

Starting point is 00:21:43 I'm sure I am on another account. You guys want to understand the dynamic between Flynn and I? She claims to not be a subscriber. I should be complimentary. Who was the first subscriber of the profile? Actually, somebody else. You were second. Somebody beat you to it.

Starting point is 00:21:56 Remember? You were upset. I'm still paying. But wait. Years later. Why did you not add me? It's complimentary. it's the least handouts my handouts in this world man okay like a hundred dollars yeah it's like you

Starting point is 00:22:09 don't even respect the time energy effort i put into creating my money a hundred big ideas i've been putting there for a decade you know how much money people would have made over the last 10 years or whatever i've been writing that thing who came up with the idea for that thing what's the next topic all right um all right so let's talk about this deal that happened over the weekend you launched a Bitcoin treasury company, but more so than that, let's just talk about like this trend of Bitcoin treasury companies. By the way, fun fact, today I woke up to a message from my family in Bulgaria to an article in Bulgarian about Anthony launching a Bitcoin treasury company. I was like, this thing made its way to Bulgaria?

Starting point is 00:22:53 It's global. Bitcoin is global. Everyone wants Bitcoin. Do you not see? Everyone wants it. It doesn't matter what language you speak, what religion you're a part of, what your education, your wealth status, where your geography does not matter. Everyone wants Bitcoin. Just explain to me, like, what is a Bitcoin treasury company? The entire idea is when you capitalize a business. Yes. And let's say in the dollar denominated world, you put dollars onto the balance sheet. OK, when you put dollars on the balance sheet, then you got to go figure out what are you going to do?

Starting point is 00:23:19 Some businesses say, I'm going to go and I'm going to build a piece of hardware. Sometimes I'm going to build some software. Some people say that I'm going to go and do lending, or maybe I'll do asset management or whatever the thing is, right? But you seed the business with some dollars, and then you have a business that you get into. What the Bitcoin treasury companies essentially have said is whether they already are a company or they're starting a new company, I'm going to put Bitcoin on the balance sheet. And then my entire goal is to buy more Bitcoin. Now, what people generally think of as a true Bitcoin treasury company or a pure play Bitcoin treasury company is they

Starting point is 00:23:50 essentially are using capital market tools to raise more capital to then go buy more Bitcoin. So for example, if let's say that you put $100 of Bitcoin on the balance sheet of a company, and Bitcoin's price goes up, let's say 50%. Now you have $150 worth of Bitcoin, your share price should be increasing. If your share price is increasing, there's all kinds of capital market tools available to you. What is happening right now with many of these Bitcoin treasury companies is they're trading at a premium to NAV. And there's a lot of debate as to why. Some trade, you know, out NAV.

Starting point is 00:24:21 Some people trade in some cases as high as six, seven, eight, nine times NAV, right? Obviously, I don't think that's very sustainable. And so there is some sweet spot where what people are essentially, in my opinion, doing is they are trying to quantify or measure what is the value of the future Bitcoin purchases that are going to occur here.

Starting point is 00:24:40 And the way that many people have started to think about this, which again, I'm not saying whether I agree with this metric or not, is something called Bitcoin per share. So if there's 100 shares and there's 100 Bitcoin on the balance sheet, one share equals one Bitcoin. So you have a Bitcoin per share of one. If all of a sudden now you have 110 Bitcoin on the balance sheet and you still only have 100 shares, now you have a Bitcoin per share of 1.1. That's a 10% increase. And therefore, if you keep getting that Bitcoin per share to grow, then people start to say, oh, you know what? If I hold this thing

Starting point is 00:25:10 and the Bitcoin per share is going to grow in the future, then I should actually ascribe some future value. And therefore, it's going to trade it more than NAV. Well, if the stock trades it more than NAV, then people have even more capital market tools available to them. And so I don't think that the current version of what's happening in the market is going to be the version that happens forever. I do think that there is a lot of value, whether you're an individual, a company, financial institution, or a country in buying Bitcoin and holding it. And I think that now what we are seeing is we are seeing the intersection of Bitcoin and traditional markets. And as those two things come together, there will be new ways that people can start to do things that they otherwise weren't doing a decade ago.

Starting point is 00:25:50 How that plays out, we'll see. Obviously, given the deal that we announced, there's not a lot that I can say in terms of our specific strategy. People can go look at the public documentation. People can look at the press releases. But I do think that there is something very interesting happening in this space. I can analyze what's already occurring. I've got ideas as to how this will play out. And rather than be like a Monday morning quarterback sitting here critiquing everybody else, you know, in the words of Chamath Palpatia, like, let's jump in the arena.

Starting point is 00:26:21 Well, I can talk about the deal because I was there. Don't talk about details. No, I can talk about behind the scenes of the deal because I was there. but anyway so so basically i just want to say that you may imagine anthony you know doing a deal behind the desk calling people no that's not what happened what happened was i said like a great wife months ago let's go on this nice trip in the woods in a mountain upstate new york celebrate our wedding to celebrate our wedding which is in a month but still like i was like okay you see how this works like we're not even in the same month of the wedding so not only was

Starting point is 00:27:00 it a nice trip? It was an anniversary trip. Well, it also happened to coincide with it being the weekend before this deal closed. So I'd be like, hey, let's go on a nice walk in the woods. And then Anthony's on a call with someone trying to figure something out or walking in the woods. Bam, he loses service. Got to go back. Then bam, there's a porcupine walking in front of us. You ever been on a call with 25, 30 people and you lose service in the woods and you have, listen, gentlemen, this is a very precarious, you know, I think I know that word, precarious situation. On one hand, you're very frustrated. The phone call started, you know, you start to get the disruption in the phone call. You're just like, damn, can't I just sit inside?

Starting point is 00:27:48 I can do the phone call. It's important. On the other hand, you got your beautiful, caring, amazing wife. can you find a better word trying to walk in uh in the woods and so you know what you do you say sweetie you've never used that word ever in your life what have you ever called me honey what have you ever called whatever word y'all use why don't we walk over here and you do the old life i got a yo arm around arm around and then you guide her back towards cell service i got And then as you guide her back towards cell service,

Starting point is 00:28:23 you may comment on the fauna. She doesn't think I know that word. And the tree top, maybe on the animals, the reptiles, you know, or anything going on around you call out. Maybe that there might be dog poop on the ground,

Starting point is 00:28:40 you know, be like the white knight chivalry is actually horse, but okay. Make sure that she doesn't step in that. Yeah. Just be a good guy, but you guide her back towards the cell. so that you can continue your call on top of that if you ever are working on something i would just

Starting point is 00:28:57 tell people i was up uh on monday night until like 1 32 o'clock in the morning then i had to be back up again at like five so i was you know doing doing what i had to do and if you ever get a text message from your wife while you're up on calls with a lot of people and she says hey are you gonna come to sleep soon another thing you can do just use the thumbs up the thumbs up is the man's greatest friend in a text message with their wives uh you know why no i would not endorse because it's just enough it's just enough where you acknowledge it but it doesn't give any information and it just upsets her enough where she's probably thinking like am I gonna go off on this guy right now but it's not so abrasive that she actually can attack you

Starting point is 00:29:45 because it can be interpreted with a lot of different ways and so if you use the thumbs up this is such bad advice it's like I acknowledge you I was being kind I was thinking you know I could have not responded I was on a call but also she knows that you're basically not answering it's a polite non-answer it's thumbs up and so that's what narrator he did not go to sleep at 1 30 in the morning i gave her the thumbs up and then didn't go to sleep so yes uh the behind the scenes of a lot of this stuff is uh a little crazy shocking we survived this weekend but we survived we are here today yeah i told plan this week she a real one 100 she she uh she knows the life that she signed up for and uh we've uh we've been through uh all kinds of great stuff together

Starting point is 00:30:29 in terms of uh different deals and different things um and uh as you can tell she's still asking me what a bitcoin treasury company is i'm just saying i don't know how much paying attention she was doing all week i was i was out sunbathing while you were inside okay like a gremlin yeah she did say to me at one point if you don't see the sun outside doesn't count that you went i literally i literally pulled up some research i was like 20 minutes in the sun in sunlight boosts your vitamin d he was like uh-huh anyway you know what boys we got it done though all right what else you got anything else that's it all right thank you guys very much for watching we'll talk to you guys next week

The Pomp Podcast - #1566 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | How Geopolitics Are Making Bitcoin Stronger

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