The Pomp Podcast - #1567 Jordi Visser | Why Bitcoin & Stocks Are At All-Time Highs

Episode Date: June 28, 2025

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we discuss ...AI acceleration, why stocks, gold, bitcoin are hitting all-time highs, market outlook for second half of the year, how Salesforce is using AI, the government pressure on the fed to lower interest rates, the current financial mindset of the the younger generation, and more. =======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================Maple Finance is where real money meets real yield. With over $1.5B managed, Maple offers secure lending, Bitcoin yield, and premium DeFi assets like syrupUSDC. Get started today at https://www.maple.finance !=======================Xapo Bank, the world’s first fully licensed Bitcoin-enabled bank, offers military-grade security with an unmatched blend of physical and digital security, as well as pioneering regulatory oversight, so your funds are always protected. Beyond secure storage, they enable you to grow and use your Bitcoin. Earn daily interest in Bitcoin, spend with zero FX fees using a global card, and make instant payments via the Lightning Network for unrivalled access and convenience. Visit https://www.xapobank.com/pomp to join.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano many of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them
Starting point is 00:00:42 for hours while i ask questions in an effort to learn so it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform watch episodes on youtube and tell your friends and family about the podcast my goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's going
Starting point is 00:01:24 on, guys. We got a great episode today with Jordy Visser. As you guys know, he's a fan favorite, but he's also a 30-year expert on Wall Street. And we get into everything going on in the world. Why AI is accelerating. Why stocks, Bitcoin, gold, everything's hitting new all-time highs. Why Salesforce is all of a sudden the AI conversation. How you sitting at home can change your portfolio to benefit from artificial intelligence, energy, and power generation, Bitcoin, and much, much more. And we even talk about why somebody like Mom Donnie, who is actually possibly going to be the mayor of New York City, what it means for demographics, thought process about capitalism and socialism, and how you sitting at home can
Starting point is 00:02:02 navigate all the volatility, uncertainty, and chaos. This conversation was awesome. I learned a lot. I think you will too. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. Jordy, the prophecy has been fulfilled. Bitcoin new all-time high, gold new all-time high, NASDAQ new all-time high, and now S&P 500 new all-time high. The bears are crying. You have been talking about this for a while now. Why are all the asset prices hitting all-time highs after everyone back in April thought that the world was ending? Well, you predicted it too. So I don't think either of us thought it would happen a matter of weeks after what we went through in the days post-liberation. But I don't think people have fully capitulated yet. I think people that are
Starting point is 00:02:51 managing money have had to capitulate because they can't underperform. But there's still a scramble going on. And the scramble is now related to, OK, what's been driving this? What has driven it and what continues to be the theme that I think people are having a hard time with is artificial intelligence. That's been the driving factor. I can tell you in my conversations that are ramping up because of what we do, the weekly video I do, but also what I'm writing about. People are just having a hard time figuring out, are they buying AI at the top? And I guess I didn't realize this before. We saw it with DeepSeek. I think we saw it with Liberation Day in terms of people focusing on tariffs, which obviously AI is not being impacted
Starting point is 00:03:36 by tariffs other than sensitive materials that China has a stranglehold on that probably forced the trade negotiations to go a different direction. I think people are still having a hard time buying stocks like Palantir that have gone through the roof. NVIDIA is back at new all-time highs. Micron has gone from, you know, I think the first time I brought it up on this show is probably in the 70s maybe in the 60s it's now up close to 130 it hit 130 this week so one of the hard things for people always is to buy anything that's had such a fast move and that's what's messing with people so i think they're looking for laggards and like a name today nike uh is up 15 as we sit here and all they did was go down for a period of time impacted by
Starting point is 00:04:26 tariffs. And now people are looking for laggards. So this feels more and more every day, like not just something that is a short-term thing, but I think we have higher to go until a new worry starts to set in for the world. Well, it does feel like when everyone was scared, the retail investors, there's tons of data that suggests the retail investors were just by the dip. They were pouring capital into the market. The institutions during their recovery, they were underexposed to especially U.S. equities. And so they were kind of sitting on the sidelines. Now that we are getting these all-time highs, it's kind of confirmatory that, okay, this thing has got momentum to it. And so you start to see that capital come off the sidelines, go into these
Starting point is 00:05:03 assets. Now, to your point about people trying to find laggards, what I find very interesting is there's kind of a bifurcation in society, right? If you look at these kind of tech-heavy names or the AI stocks, those are things that have tons of momentum, tons of kind of story narrative behind them. But if you look at something like Nike, to me, it kind of feels like people are trying to tell a story that has nothing to do with AI. It has nothing to do with kind of the narratives that are dominating markets. Instead, maybe it's something where, oh, the tariffs aren't going to have as big of an impact as they previously thought they were going to have. So there's like almost like this like relief type rally. When I look at a portfolio
Starting point is 00:05:42 today, it does feel like this idea of acceleration is now going to be the theme for the next decade, right? Acceleration in terms of, you mentioned Micron, doubling in price very quickly. You can see the acceleration that's happened in the mag seven type stocks over the last 15 years or 10 years or so. But also there's an acceleration in access to information. There's an acceleration in the reaction in the market to emotion. People get very fearful, people get very greedy. And so it's like, as we get acceleration across our society, then you're getting volatility. And I think ultimately that volatility is where people seem to be trying to figure out, am I an investor who seeks the volatility, or I'm an investor who tries to hide from that volatility.
Starting point is 00:06:23 Yeah, it's a good point. And this is probably, so let's give everyone out there three parts to what you just said. I'm a student of economic history. And when I started trading emerging markets in the 1990s, I studied the leading economic index, which is actually a very powerful theory behind it for both leading and lagging. But I don't think people realize that that index, which was created in the 1960s, it's been now at least negative 1%. So it's been between negative 1%, I think negative 7% every single month since August of 22. We've never had that index below minus 1% and not had a recession since it was created. Within that are two parts of the jobs market. So there's 10 components. Two of them are the jobs market. Three of them are new orders.
Starting point is 00:07:22 There's housing, there's consumer sentiment, and then there's the S&P and there's credit. And I think what you mentioned for people, everyone who's focusing right now on say the first eight, because the yield curve is included in there as well. Those are all screaming recession. I don't care where you go. New orders, we've had the PMIs down low. So for anyone who wants to be negative, who's trained on history, those are the historical things. The S&P is a modern day thing, which has to do with profit margins.
Starting point is 00:07:51 And that's where the AI story is happening. And to your point, it's only going to accelerate, meaning profit margins have been in there. And the MAG-7 right now are responsible for 55% of the earnings growth. So when people look at this, they hear, well, it's 30% of the market cap. Well, when you take that market cap and you apply it to the earnings growth, they're 55% of it. So when you get negative, you're, by definition, getting negative on the acceleration side. So that's why we talked about this in Liberation Day.
Starting point is 00:08:20 I brought this up. If you enter the investing side going, the opportunities now are to buy when everyone hates it and is focusing on the part of the LEI that is not the biggest part of the economy and not the part that's growing exponentially. The part that's growing exponentially that you and I agreed to have this weekly thing on because almost all the wealthy people are focused on the other components.
Starting point is 00:08:42 That is still a story. So I think people need to be opportunistic and they need to look for these bad times to be able to put in because that's where the alpha is generated. When you look across the AI story, how are you now thinking about this, right? I think over the last couple of months,
Starting point is 00:08:56 there's been some different storylines, obviously the deep seeks, the open AIs, the NVIDIA story. We're now starting to see a lot of rumors around things like CoreWeave and things that are happening there. How are you just evaluating the landscape? Are there certain areas that you're more excited than maybe others? Well, I think this is the part that people are going to start to recognize by the end of the year. And this is where I don't want to make a prediction on what's going to happen the second half of the year, but we have kind of this force that's going to change. So since ChatGPT was launched, which is when the AI quote unquote
Starting point is 00:09:31 trade started, we're only two and a half years into it. And that part was really mainly NVIDIA and then obviously the MAG-7. The problem is for the MAG-7, they're spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year on the infrastructure. We don't have like a sexy trade where people can look at and be like, this is really going to take a different turn. I can get excited about this. this is going to change the world. Well, we're now getting into the agentic side and this is the part. And so I've tried to find ways to explain it to people, but we went from memorization, which was the last two and a half years where you're just using a chat bot. Now you're getting into a different form, which is digital employees that are doing thinking through reasoning and
Starting point is 00:10:11 inference. And that's why we've talked about it so much. That is an inflection point that I don't think people have fully grasped on yet. So when you mentioned Nike, if you go into Nike and you go into perplexing and say, what did they specifically mention about AI? Every company is now talking about AI in their conference calls because they have spent money to try and figure out how to reduce hiring people. I hear this time and time again from people that cover companies that the CEOs of all kinds of companies, not just tech companies, not just financial companies, not just industrial, not just energy, are talking about how they may never need to hire again. So you're in this weird world. They're not saying they're firing lots of employees. They're just
Starting point is 00:10:48 saying we're not going to hire as much, which means going forward, the people that are going to be hired are going to be digital employees. And the reason I said there's going to be a enthusiasm, that doesn't sound good on the surface. But then when you enter your humanoids into the equation, which is what I think is going to start to become more and more evident by the end of the year, now you have something that people go, wow, this is going to create a very sexy investment environment. I want to get behind this because so far it's really been private companies like OpenAI that they can't invest in, NVIDIA, which is one company. You're getting a broadening out now. And that's why analog semis, all different types are joining in. So I think we
Starting point is 00:11:22 are going to see a broader market. I think the Mag 7 will lag a little bit. But overall, I think the humanoid thing is going to be a major story by the end of the year. And where do you expect that to show up in the economy? Are there going to be companies in the public market that people can buy right now? Really, I think people are saying, hey, I could buy Tesla and there's kind of exposure to it. But many of the companies that I'm hearing about humanoids, they're in the private market, whether it's Figure AI, Apptronic or any of these other guys. And so how do you think that investors, specifically the ones who maybe aren't in the private market in the venture community, how can they kind of play this or where do you expect them to be able to find things to get
Starting point is 00:11:56 exposure? Yeah, it's a great point. And I saw the interview you did about a month ago with Chris Camillo, who's obviously been all over this and has been involved. The first thing I would do is just follow his post because he pretty much posts about this theme all the time because he's invested and he believes it's the biggest investment theme he's ever seen in his lifetime. And it's not just him that said that. We've talked about this in the last couple of weeks. But when Elon Musk says there's going to be more humanoids on the planet than people by 2035 or 2040, when you have Marc Andreessen saying this is going to be the biggest industry the world has ever seen, it's really hard when the companies are private. So Tesla is the one public one. And I think because they have all
Starting point is 00:12:35 these other components to them, that's why they're being viewed so differently than most people know them as a car company. The fact that most people think of them as a car company means there's tremendous opportunity, in my opinion, for Tesla, regardless of what's happening in the politics and the company. But honestly, that's where Micron fits in for me. That's where the analog semiconductors fit in. It's starting to become known. And if you go into perplexity and you ask for what Micron said, the amount of memory that's needed for the thinking and reasoning component. And that's the part that I think people have to go. When you start putting brains into machines to make this simplified, where they're not allowed to have hallucinations,
Starting point is 00:13:12 where they have to learn and remember everything so they're getting better, the memory side becomes really, really important. And this is where Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung to a lesser degree as a percentage of their business, these are all places that people go. But unfortunately, it's those types of places.
Starting point is 00:13:29 And then eventually, as I said, the bottleneck becomes the power side. And that's the other place that people should be barbelling in their portfolios is looking for power companies. And I think the only two mega ones that are going to be able to help produce the power that's necessary in the short term because nuclear won't get us there.
Starting point is 00:13:46 It's companies like Exxon and Chevron, believe it or not, because they're big enough to kind of make this transition. And are they openly talking about this right now, that they're going to be providing that power? Or is that kind of an indirect line that you're making to say, hey, these guys have the power? Or are they aware of this and trying to kind of position themselves? Yeah, I wrote a research report for 22V
Starting point is 00:14:05 where a good portion of it was highlighting the commentary they made. My belief in this is if a company hasn't spoken about it, there's no way. This is one of the beauties of using any of the LLMs, but in particular, I say perplexity because they have the transcripts in there and it's instantaneous to get there. So you can ask multiple questions and go through it. But they have specifically mentioned the gas fired plants as being the bridge to where nuclear and other components are going to be. The fact that they have the scale, they have the balance sheet, they have the money, they
Starting point is 00:14:38 can do all this stuff uh that's what's made them publicly speak about it but then they also highlight in there that they've had conversations with the hyperscalers so when you line all that up and you kind of see that all right that's now but the reasoning stuff just went in and that's why when we brought up the token usage the token usage and just how exponential it's going which has been confirmed by every hyperscaler um that's where i think the power thing is just again you to get in front of these exponential innovations so exxon and chevron might look like oil companies gas companies right now uh which they are but on the flip side they're going to be benefiting from the power i'm sure so now salesforce is not going after humanoid robots from what i understand but
Starting point is 00:15:19 they are talking a lot about ai replacing some of the jobs i've seen numbers as big as 30 to 50 in some of the commentary there i know you've been looking at this what's going on with salesforce and how is that playing into this ai story yeah they've been the leader of talking about ai agents um and what they were saying before was that their customers and i'll just mention specifically they they talked openly or mark benioff did that one of their customers disney would be able to utilize through the crm system the ability of having agents to kind of be smarter about things about booking things about call center stuff like that what mark benioff talked about this week was that their workload inside the company so forget kind of the external side of using it he said that 30
Starting point is 00:16:04 to 50 percent of the workload is now being done through ai so this gets back to the point of it's not just the adoption side from enterprises which is accelerating at this point it's the efficiencies that all companies are able to do with inside their business for things that walmart has been given uh you know a higher multiple for if you're able to deal with inventory and you're able to deal with kind of the maintenance side the cost side nike specifically mentioned inventory management on their call you're going to have all of these companies again that have the tech people they have the money they have the need to focus on profit margins it just becomes something that labor is a really really big component of the cost of running a business wages in this country are
Starting point is 00:16:47 50 percent of personal income uh you're just going to have this scenario where every company is going going to be focused on this going forward? What I wonder is how many of these companies are, okay, we're going to hire less people in the future because of this trend versus we are going to fire employees. Like there's a cost cutting versus a cost, you know, maybe a slowing. But also do we start to see data where people can actually quantitatively measure? If I give these tools to my employees, there's an increase in productivity. And maybe that just shows up in revenue and profit, but it does feel like there is, you know, kind of, hey, I can use this to replace people, or I can use this to augment people. And the companies that win in the future,
Starting point is 00:17:25 they're going to have to do both, right? There are certain jobs that can be automated away, but then there are a ton of things that you're going to get a benefit from if you just hand the right tools to the right people. Yeah. So you and I have talked about one thing that I think is really important. Let's go backwards from the public companies to answer this question to the private companies. So businesses can now start and race really fast and get to 5 million ARR with hiring no people. You can get to a billion-dollar company with very small amounts of people. To do that, it's going to be all AI or slash tech side. Gradually, entrepreneurs are figuring ways to just use AI to get there. If you're a tech company that's in the software
Starting point is 00:18:05 world, if you've got a lot of coders, you obviously can fire people because those were expensive jobs. Those were hard to get. Now, all of a sudden, you've been able to replace them very quickly. So I think the coding jobs will immediately go. So the more tech oriented, I think you'll see firings at smaller businesses where the bigger businesses, I think it's less of hiring because they've had to hire at very large pace over the last whatever years to grow. So I think you'll see less hiring for the big companies. You'll see firings for the smaller tech related companies. But for the majority of the S&P 500 in the non-tech area, I definitely think it's going to be less hiring. And one of the things people, and I'll be showing this on the
Starting point is 00:18:45 video this weekend, MAG-7 are still growing their revenues at double digits. Historically, what happens is the S&P 500 would have a multiple of revenue growth somewhere, let's say about one and a half times what nominal GDP is. Well, nominal GDP right now is about 4.7 to 5%. Right now, if you go through the non-MAG7, so the S&P 493, their revenue growth is right at that level, exactly at it. So we've lost the multiple. And this is where I believe we're getting a lot of startup businesses that are never going public, that are growing their revenues at an incredibly fast pace. You've seen it with some of the entrepreneurs you've worked with. That market to me is going to grow rapidly. That is the pure not hiring people. They don't need to fire people.
Starting point is 00:19:32 the bigger businesses are in a good situation right now because they can see their profit margins get better without hiring people. But how is a Ford or a GM that has massive amounts of debt going to be able to do anything for their business? And that's why the S&P 493, it contains a lot of different businesses, but I don't see them as able to do what the MAG7 have done. And most importantly, I don't think they can grow their revenues as fast as these smaller businesses. So you have the MAG7, you have these private companies that are growing rapidly, and then of the S&P 493, where the bulk of them are just never going to be able to compete. And I think they're going to gradually go out of business if they have debt and they can't grow their top line
Starting point is 00:20:09 revenues significantly more than the nominal GDP side. So one of the things that is kind of overlay on top of all of this is obviously monetary policy. We see M2 money supply growing, the Bitcoiners are yelling and screaming out of excitement that Bitcoin is going to go up a lot because money supply is growing. The government seems to, at least this administration, have had at some secret meeting where they all came together and they said, Jerome Powell, he's the target. And now we see tons of them publicly coming out and applying immense pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Now, I happen to agree that interest rates should be cut, but put that aside for a second as to what they actually should do or should not do.
Starting point is 00:20:46 It feels like the government pressure is an important story that is not really being talked about nearly as much. And I don't know what your opinion on this is, but when Trump in his first term did this, when Biden did this, now Trump's doing it again. I've always called out and said, look, it's important that the Fed is independent, but let's be serious here. It's kind of like, you know, you get called to the principal's office and there's likely to be, you know, humans involved and they do succumb to the pressure to some degree. Is that kind of how you read the situation? Are you looking for a simple way to earn Bitcoin rewards every single day? At Simple Mining, we help people mine Bitcoin, even if you're brand new. We're a
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Starting point is 00:24:42 But now you're getting into other things where they're talking about a new Fed chair and naming him, naming that person in September to have a shadow Fed there. And this becomes a big story. I think it's quite evident that they're continuing on a path. And I believe that the Fed should be cutting rates. And the reason I believe that is what I mentioned about the stock market, where there's a few companies that are benefiting significantly, there's a lot of small, tiny private companies that are doing well, but the majority of people in the country are not doing well. And this problem, we talked about the job situation. We talked about digital employees. what is the job of the Fed to focus on containing inflation where, again, if they want to raise
Starting point is 00:25:29 rates 100 basis points, they can certainly do that. Shouldn't they be erring right now on the other side if the job market is soft, which it is? I mentioned on a call I did today that the year-over-year nonfarm payroll is now 1.08%. So there are 1.08% more people hired right now versus a year ago. That may sound like a big number. Obviously, when you're dealing with let's say 160 million people, that's approximately 1.6 million people that are added. But the problem with that is that number historically of only adding a million, that means we're entering a recession. So I think with where things are that the inflation rate has given them the chance to cut rates. We had a negative GDP print in the first quarter. We're going to have a positive
Starting point is 00:26:16 have won the second. But when you combine the two of them, you're talking sub 2% real GDP at a time when inflation is low. So I do believe the Fed should be cutting. I believe it's for the median voter. And I think what you saw with the election in New York this week and the types, you know, the demographics of where the voting is and what I've shown before, graduates and young people are really, really angry at the system. Forget all the things that people are getting into. I think it is very, very hard with the affordability side of where it is, which obviously can be impacted by lowering rates. I think where the job situation is competing with AI is a problem. And I think college graduates are having for the first time in history, a really, really hard time of not only
Starting point is 00:26:58 getting a job, but thinking that they're going to be able to work their way up the corporate ladder. So I think there's a growing mistrust and really anger towards all incumbent officials. And I think that's why Trump is going to continue to put pressure because he wants rates lower, not just for that reason, but also because we have a debt problem that is dependent on rates moving lower on the front end. Now, Mamdani has, I think, woken up the United States of America. He is openly a socialist. He has said that capitalism is not the best system. He's called for the defunding of the police. He has even on his tax policy that he published, his logo on it and everything so that he wants to increase taxes on wealthier, whiter neighborhoods and redistribute
Starting point is 00:27:42 that. I mean, just things that 10 years ago you would think are absolutely crazy that they could never possibly be popular. Now, on the other side of this, I think that there are a lot of people, as you're describing, who are just saying to themselves, all I know is that my situation is not good. I need somebody who is going to understand my plight, somebody who is going to have some sort of solution. And so it does feel like you get in this weird situation where by identifying, by acknowledging the problem, you obviously are going to have a sympathetic audience, but then showing up and saying, by the way, the solutions, I'm going to give you free stuff and you don't have to work. And we're just going to redistribute all the wealth.
Starting point is 00:28:24 Sounds great if you're in that demographic, but the problem is that it doesn't work. And so I keep coming back to this idea of how does the financial market evolve if actually a very big portion, I don't know if it's majority, but a big portion of this younger demographic is showing up and saying the system itself is broken. The system is evil. The capitalism, economics, all these things that I think are pretty well accepted by people who are millennials and older, this younger generation is essentially showing up with a socialist mindset right and and does that change financial markets are there things that investors in the market should do differently that account for this younger generation kind of entering the workforce um or was every single generation the
Starting point is 00:29:17 same they all had these crazy you know wild-eyed ideas and then kind of they meet reality and they realize oh wait a second doesn't matter how much i yell and scream i gotta work to make money all right so this is where we segue into bitcoin and we get to now have a conversation about why not only it's done so well but my own journey there so let's go back to something um and i i i brought this up on the video last week and we've talked about it but i want to bring up joseph schumpeter again and i'd probably every time i say it people don't go just go into an llm you don't have to go read anything but joseph schumpeter all you have to do is go into chat gpt going to perplexity going to gemini and just type in what were joseph schumpeter's economic theories
Starting point is 00:30:00 about capitalism and at what point does socialism start to become the answer to capitalism and he will go through and he's the father of creative destruction so he talked about how innovation eventually accelerates so fast that it causes capitalism to be broken so rather than say the system and the fact that people don't feel like they're participating. I started heading down this journey in 2013 about exponential innovation and the dangers it would have towards the fabric of capitalism. If you continue to have a divide in terms of inequality and you continue to have a few people that had most of the money, you would eventually cause problems. And the easiest way to cause what has happened in New York City, in fact, the only way for it to happen is through younger
Starting point is 00:30:48 people. That's the only way. The younger people don't have a belief that the system will come back. They believe the system has been worsening every single year. And so if you take anyone right now that is 25 years or younger, what have they experienced? I mean, the internet really started to accelerate in 2000 as a part of our lives. Amazon became a company. And then all of a sudden, you have the smartphones. And the 25-year-old at that time was eight years old. So they're feeling right now, the pressures that are coming from what happened with the smartphone, less jobs, very few companies that are doing well. There's a reason why burger places in New York that people love like Prime Burger and all these old diner type places have gone out of business, have been
Starting point is 00:31:33 replaced with these very, very efficient, you know, salad companies and Chipotle and all of these things. It's because technology and innovation is happening in slow motion and getting us there. What has now entered up in the situation when you get to young people is they are voting for a different system. The benefit is, or the reality is, the reason they're doing this is because they can't live the dream that they thought was supposed to be there. You get a job, you move up the corporate ladder, you get paid more money every year. You don't have to worry about getting fired when you're a young person unless you're in the bottom 10% of the employees. And you kind of move up, then you get a family, then you go buy a house. That entire path is gone.
Starting point is 00:32:13 You start out with student debt, you can't feel certainty in your job, and then you can't buy a house. Plain and simple. That's it. Peter Thiel literally just posted something about this, why the students are so angry and why socialism is happening. So I think where Bitcoin fits into it, it is the system that eventually is built through the disruption of all businesses. And that's why I keep saying Bitcoin for me is the S&P 500. Eventually, the way that young people will benefit in a world of abundance where you don't actually need the money because the prices of everything have gone down and your identity is not based around your job to where you have to be an entrepreneur. You have to change jobs constantly. You have to be creative. You have to
Starting point is 00:32:53 go through it. If we're in a world that is moving so fast that there isn't a company to go work at in a desk and you're working remotely and you're moving from place to place and travel and leisure becomes part of your life. I think younger people are better prepared for that. So I think socialism is just the next point of the capitalism side. And the more people are angry, the more money the government has to print. That's why the transfer payments are going up. And that's why at the end,
Starting point is 00:33:17 Bitcoin will not stop going higher, regardless of what people say. It will replace a lot of the fiat assets over time. And do you look at, we have to eat into that. You know, there's a guy, Murad Mahabtav, who I don't think you've ever met before, but in 2019, probably, him and I sat down And it was one of the first conversations where I listened to the person I was talking
Starting point is 00:33:40 to. And as soon as it ended, I said to him, hold on one second. And I turned to my computer and I bought more Bitcoin. And I was already pretty bullish, but he, I mean, he really hammered it home for me. And his whole thought process was take every store of value asset in the world. Obviously people think of gold, people think of treasuries and dollars and things like that. But think about real estate, think about art, think about, you know, anything that stores
Starting point is 00:34:02 value for people from an investment standpoint. Bitcoin is going to eat into those things. And therefore, Bitcoin is going to be much bigger than anyone believes. And I think that we are starting to see that in some areas. But what has started to happen, which I think is even more fascinating, is I used to think that Bitcoin would eclipse gold's market cap, and it would happen somewhere around six to seven trillion. At the time, gold's market cap was 10. And so you were going to demonetize gold, and that capital was going to shift into Bitcoin. The opposite has happened. Actually, Bitcoin has been successful, and gold has gotten bigger. Gold has almost doubled its market cap during that timeframe. And so Bitcoin is still growing at a faster rate,
Starting point is 00:34:36 will likely eclipse gold at some point in the future. But some of these store of value assets in other sectors, they're not suffering at the hands of Bitcoin. They're all going up together. And so it's almost like the pie is expanding more so than it is a zero-sum game. Why is that? Well, first of all, I think it appears that way. I actually think there's something happening under the hood that people have to grasp onto so first of all stocks and bonds make up about i don't know half of the 500 trillion dollars real estate makes up a huge component of it um and real estate prices are not going higher the way they did and this is part of the issue that i think has has happened to people is housing went up here because we printed so much money in covid and we have a
Starting point is 00:35:24 shortage and it drove house prices up well we just had negative month-over-month house prices in the last month that may not sound like a big deal that does not happen too often and aside from 2022 it didn't happen except for during recession so for house prices to actually go down at all is a problem think about what's happening in china where they're going down significantly uh as real estate has kind of gone sideways then you go look at bonds well bonds haven't gone up either we've seen rates we're in a bond bear market right now compared to where we were so if you look at any bond measure and you go say well what has it done since 2019 when we started printing money it's done nothing the barclays ag is basically unchanged to down uh across the globe so if
Starting point is 00:36:08 real estate has kind of reached its peak point and you've reached that for bonds well that's most of it so i think gold is doing well because those things are not doing well and because most Most of the wealthy people at this point, if you ask a person worth a billion dollars, do they own gold? The answer is generally going to be yes. Do they own real estate? A hundred percent they do. Do they own Bitcoin?
Starting point is 00:36:29 No, the majority of them don't unless they're below the age of 60. And so the concentration of wealth and the biggest argument for Bitcoin is as a billionaire in their 60s, let's make it in their 80s dies and they give money to their kids. Their kids don't view the world the same way that they did. So the transfer of wealth is going to have this this impact. But I think the biggest impact and this is why this year I think it's going significantly higher in the second half. What Donald Trump is doing, the dollar went down again this week and it went down because he does not care about Fed independence. Like everything that we believed in that is really important to the financial system for people that are older and educated is breaking down.
Starting point is 00:37:13 That's why gold is done well. But now we're getting into the job market. I cannot say this loud enough to people. We are entering the world where thinking and reasoning, decision-making is going to be part of a company done by digital employees. We're going to have humanoids walking down the street with us. Within five years, you will be walking next to them. You're going to start seeing Waymo in New York City. There's a difference between being in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. When you start bringing Waymo and driverless cars into Manhattan, I think that's a wake up call. I mean, we had protests from Uber when it was moving across the globe. What's going to happen when Waymo and robo taxis really start taking off and humanoids start taking jobs and there's no strikes? So I think Bitcoin is going to benefit right now from the unrest that is seemingly happening at a faster pace from the job situation and the fact that the government is saying we don't believe in independence. We don't believe in the reserve currency. All of these things are breaking down right now. Did you see what happened with Mr. Beast with Jimmy? He released a new product. And in this product, it basically is an AI thumbnail creator. So you go on, you type in what you want, and it creates it.
Starting point is 00:38:22 And you can say, hey, make me a thumbnail in the style of Mr. Beast that has a green car. Or you can upload a photo. And one of the examples he used in the launch video was it was F1's logo and had an arrow to an F1 car. and he uploaded it and he said switch the car with a minivan and then it makes the same thing just plus the minivan right i mean things that people who are paying attention to ai are like obviously this is going to be a thing he released it now he's mr beast biggest youtuber in the world massive backlash from the youtube community all the thumbnail editors all the quote-unquote artists are all sitting there saying oh my god you're coming for our jobs yada yada whatever
Starting point is 00:39:00 he capitulated he bent the knee complete error in my opinion i love him to death he's incredible human very nice obviously hyper successful uh genuinely cares about doing right by people and he capitulated and he came out and he said you know what we've taken down the product instead what we've replaced it with is essentially a marketplace you now if you would like uh somebody to create uh thumbnails for you we are going to you know recommend you to thumbnail editors. And from my perspective, you cannot let yourself or the future be held hostage by people who are unwilling to adopt new tools. It's like being a farmer and somebody saying to you, you can't use the tractor because my horse is going to be out of business.
Starting point is 00:39:44 That's not your problem, right? You have to continue to push the edge of innovation because guess what happens is actually everything will get better. You will see now tons of people who can't afford a thumbnail editor now have access to one now what about their ability to create a living on youtube right you're taking away their opportunity to give it to people who don't want to adopt into so like this whole thing now is happening and it's not showing up in like hardcore technology like the youtube ecosystem is now having the debate as to whether the largest youtuber in the world should be using ai or is he being essentially disrespectful and hurting the thumbnail artist so what do you think about that i guess in the one side uh
Starting point is 00:40:25 i mean i agree with what you're saying i just think when people get so big and let's just take mr beast and equate it to taylor swift um they kind of don't want to do anything that uh uh, let's say hurts their image. But what I will say is you could use the Taylor Swift side of Scooter Braun and how she tried to get around that whole thing and just reissue all of her albums as new albums to try and make it less valuable. And I, I always thought, and I wrote something about this, that that was kind of what's going to happen with AI and copying things. So on the one side, for someone who's become so popular and depends on their users and depends on the influence side, it depends on a lot of parts that
Starting point is 00:41:17 they just don't want their image tornage at any point. At the same time, and I think the job situation is where this is going to become in. I think anyone that's hurting jobs, particularly in the digital world from AI, you're going to have backlash. I just think it's going to happen. But I think your point, you're bringing up something really interesting that I have to spend time on to think about just because we are at that time and age where all of these things with copying, doing something that immediately eliminates jobs is going to be there. But if he doesn't do it, someone else will do it. 100%. And the reason I thought of it is when waymo comes to new york city you're gonna see taxi drivers getting out of the car beating the cars
Starting point is 00:41:59 100 right absolutely you want to see a waymo get set on fire bring it to new york city i promise you somebody's gonna do it right they shouldn't do it they should get in trouble for it but they're still gonna do it they're gonna get out with a baseball bat they're gonna you know what i mean like you you know how all this is gonna play out but the self-driving car will win it may it may lose the the battle but it'll win the war right yeah and and that's the point of how long it takes for this stuff to go through it. The problem is, unlike with Uber, I just don't think people realize how much faster
Starting point is 00:42:31 AI is moving relative to what was going on with apps. You could come up with an idea, you could build it. It would take three years before anyone else knew about it. And so you had a moat around your business. The problem is this is going to move so fast. That's your point. I just don't think human beings are going to be able to handle. I know governments won't be able to move fast enough.
Starting point is 00:42:53 I just don't think workers and people fully grasp. It's funny because I've had a couple of people reach out saying that my message has been inconsistent when it comes to, let's say, jobs, because we do live in a world where there is a shortage of jobs. If you want to go be a daycare worker, trust me, there's not enough people. If you want to go be working Dunkin' Donuts, I'm in Maine right now. There's Dunkin' Donuts signs everywhere. Every single summer is the same thing.
Starting point is 00:43:18 They can't get enough people in the hotels, any of this stuff. But the problem is those jobs don't pay well enough for people to go into them to be able to live in the places. So a daycare person, a nanny in New York City, you're going to be able to get a lot of money theoretically. But the problem is you can't live in New York City and have that job. So in every place in the world right now, I just think it's really, really difficult. And the labor situation is going to be under pressure while the S&P is going higher. It's a very, very unique time. And I think your point is it's going to make a lot of people angry as they see the wealthy doing well and everyone else having a harder time.
Starting point is 00:43:58 We're going to all sit and watch it play out together, my friend. Where can we send people to find you on the Internet? YouTube every Sunday. I'm posting an X a little less, but hopefully that'll pick up now that the summer is here. 22V Research, 22V Securities, whatever they're using right now as their main hub. I'm putting a lot of investment research there. And then my sub stack I'm writing every single week. So they can find me there as well as with Pomp.
Starting point is 00:44:28 Jordy, you're doing a fantastic job. I enjoy talking to you every week and we'll do it again next week. Same here, bud. Thanks.

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