The Pomp Podcast - #436 Dan Tapiero on Gold and Bitcoin

Episode Date: November 23, 2020

Dan Tapiero has more than 25 years of experience investing across asset classes on Wall Street and is one of the most well-known macro investors in the world. He previously spent time working with Julian Robertson, Stanley Druckenmiller, Steve Cohen, and many other luminaries.  In this conversation, we discuss the gold thesis, the bitcoin thesis, the recent divergence, whether they will co-exist in the future, how to think of an ideal allocation to either, and stock-to-flow models. ======================= Choice is a new self-directed IRA product that I'm really excited about. If you are listening to this, you are likely part of the 7.1 million bitcoin owners who have retirement accounts with dollars in them, but not bitcoin. I was in that situation too. Now you can actually buy real Bitcoin in your retirement account. I'm talking about owning your private keys and using tax-advantaged dollars to do it too. Absolute game changer. https://www.retirewithchoice.com/pomp ======================= Masterworks.io is an exclusive platform that makes it as easy as trading stocks online. And the best part is: you don’t need to know anything about art. Their experts will create a custom portfolio to meet your investment needs. With Masterworks.io you don’t have to choose between big risks and big returns. Sign up today, select PODCAST and you can skip the 70,000 waitlist to get first dibs. Just go to www.masterworks.io and use code "POMP"

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Let's kick this thing off. Dan Taperio has more than 25 years of experience investing across asset classes on Wall Street and is one of the most well-known macro investors in the world. He previously spent time working with Julian Robertson, Stanley Druckenmiller, Steve Cohen, and many other luminaries. In In this conversation, we discuss the gold thesis, the Bitcoin thesis, the recent divergence, whether they will coexist in the future, how to think about an ideal allocation to either, and the stock-to-flow models.

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in real quick uh give us kind of a quick overview of your background and then we will get to the conversation that everyone wants to hear which is gold and bitcoin okay um well you know i've been through this a few times already. I think most people know a little bit about my background. I was in the hedge fund business for 25 years as a global macro PM, worked early in my career with Julian Robertson at Tiger and then Michael Steinhardt. Also then a little later on, worked with Steve Cohen at Stack for 10 years and then Stan Druckenmiller at Duquesne, and then back with Steve again, along the way, focused on just about everything outside of specific equities. You know, that would be commodities and currencies, emerging markets, etc. In 06,

when I was working with Druck, we launched, I was very focused on agriculture then. We launched a company called Agcoa, which ended up becoming the largest private farmland REIT in the U.S. We sold it in 2013 to the Canadian pension fund system. But for seven years, we built up this portfolio of farms out in wheat, corn, soy producing farms out in the Midwest, mostly in the Mississippi Delta and in Nebraska. So that was, you know, that was a case where I took a macro idea that I focused on for the portfolio through positions in grains and then applied that idea to starting a business. Did the same thing in 08, 09 with physical gold.

Had been trading gold in the 90s or positioning and then got very bullish in 08. Worried about, you know, banking systemic risk. Wanted to hone some physical gold outside of the banking system. I mean, to have it stored outside the banking system. Couldn't find a really, I would say, legit AAA, you know, way to do it.

You know, you had guys on the internet. I've said sort of like crazy 80 type guys selling you physical gold or you had guys you know with a PO box and the Caymans so set out with a partner to start a company called gold bullying international my partner they're still the CEO today it's 11 years later the business is really flourishing this year it's just been a great business. Over 40 people, we've done, we have over 300,000 clients, done over a million trades, and we're the third largest vaulter now of gold in the world, outside of the max. And so I really know the physical gold business. I, you know, I sometimes,

it takes a lot for me to sort of hold back, especially on Twitter, we'll get into this a later because I am coming from a different place of knowledge. I mean, I know this business. Anyway, so, and then in 2014, that gold business integrated with BitReserve, which today is the Uphold wallet. And we were the first place that you could buy and sell physical gold to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ripple. So that was sort of my intro into the Bitcoin world. And then in 2019, the company partnered with Equity Trust to offer an IRA, and we were the second place in the U.S. where you could trade eight different cryptocurrencies in your IRA, and we also partnered with DCG. I've known Barry, you know, eight years or so on the other side, so we built

that platform. DCG, of course, doing the execution and Equity Trust in the, you know, facing the client, but we were the ones who sort of built that architecture. So that pulled me more into the world. And then in Q1, Q2, 19, what happened was, you know, the price had collapsed from 19 down to four. And as a macro guy, look, you know that either it's a bust, right, after a blow off, or it was a big opportunity. And I had been making little bits of money in it, not a lot. and then I just sort of I did the whole rabbit hole thing I I said this is the time I did six months really of 10 hours a day of reading podcasts you know everything just totally immersive and it sort of resulted in that interview I did with Raul Pal last summer

about Bitcoin and that was sort of like my kind of entry into the world I mean I I didn't even do Twitter at that point. And Raul says to me, Dan, just give me a Twitter account and like people will follow up with questions. And so I just, I'd had an account that I'd set up, but I'd never used it, didn't know how to use it. Anyway, I, that was sort of my sort of entry into the world, into this world. And, you know, of course, as you know, the entire Bitcoin world lives on Twitter. I tell people it's not New York, it's not Silicon Valley, it's not Hong Kong, it's, it lives on twitter and of course because it lives on twitter we know you are one of the guys uh i don't know not gatekeepers per se but you're one of the you know i just think key key people in the space you

connect so many different people and i i'm thrilled to be here and i know we've been trying to do it for for about a year just because i i guess in a way i think you reflect the zeitgeist that's how i see it from like, you know, from the top down. Like if people say to me, who are five people I have to follow or whose daily piece that you write, you're definitely the hardest working man in Bitcoin. There's no blockchain, cryptocurrency, whatever you call it. I don't think anybody would dispute that. I appreciate the kind words. And for those that don't know, in March and April of this year when all of the economic chaos was kind of going on and there's lots of uncertainty, you were one of a very select few number of people that basically I was like begging to

get on the phone. I was like, help me understand what is going on right now. And you nailed it, man. You were all over it. And so that experience definitely paid off. You know what? That was really fun because, look, when you've been in the markets for 30 years, you're used to, you know, selling climaxes and panics and this and that. And you see it in different places around the world. And March was really bad. But I can remember that one day in March when it gapped down, the Bitcoin gapped down through like six, it was six and then five. And I started getting all of these messages from all these people that like, Dan, you were so wrong, you don't know anything. And I put this tweet out like, listen, it's the only time and I'm against

the cursing on Twitter just because I, you know, you got to, but it was the only time on Twitter, I said, what is it? I said, STFU, right? This is like the, this is like, this is the only really truly freely trading market. Basically, this is it, right? Like, this is the bottom. This is not, you know, I was getting bombarded all over the place. And, you know, I just, nothing really had changed and you know anyway it was it was a great moment to be involved in and then in the weeks after i mean you and i did talk a lot about the dollar um because that was the high and that was part of what we were talking about was that um the federal reserve would sacrifice the dollar before the equity market and the asset market and so that was another um meaning they would have

preferred the dollar that they would let the dollar go down as much as they needed to as long as it ended up supporting the equity market, right? So, yeah, that was a very exciting time. And I think a lot of guys in the space sort of became more macro after that, right? Absolutely. Let's start the conversation just around gold and Bitcoin with how do you right now, if one of your global macro friends called you up and they said, look, I want to understand this dan like how would you describe your thesis on gold and your thesis on bitcoin to them yeah well you know the macro guys for the most part know why and how to uh execute and position in gold and you know you saw tudor jones's letter this summer which was a i think you know one of

the two or three most important uh events in the space uh you know he had a he has a significant in position in gold. And you can read his eight-page paper, which I think is pretty good, gives you good sense. And then, of course, Druck as well came out a few days ago and mentioned a position in gold. And so that really doesn't need so much explaining. People get that, look, the balance sheets of central banks have been exploding. M2 is up 25% year over year, And, you know, it's really not been up over 10 percent at any period. Rates are zero globally. There's huge injections of liquidity going on by all the major central banks. So I don't that's not really, you know, that doesn't really need explanation. I think it's a little more it's a little more difficult to explain Bitcoin because to own gold is to own, you know, is to is to be short fiat. Right. And so there's also this paper hard asset dichotomy, which really resonates with sort

of more traditional investment managers, meaning they get there's paper, they get there's an unlimited amount of paper, right, or there will be, and that there's more or less a finite amount of gold, and that it's hard, you can hold it, you know, with 1% a year increase in supply or whatever, it's versus all the other assets out there in the world, it's finite. And I know the Bitcoiners are constantly saying, oh, gold, it's not finite. You can find it in the asteroid or whatever insanity that you want to come up with, but more or less. And I want to get into this because even though I do have great respect for your work, I do think that the piece that you wrote a few days ago sort of really inspired this. And we've talked about this a bit

before the show gold versus bitcoin doesn't end in coexistence and it's something that you know i really don't believe that's true and i think one of the themes if there if you'd say there's one theme that's consistent that i can continue to put out on twitter is that you really have to own both and i want to clarify that though because and we'll and and that's because look there's no question that Bitcoin is going to outperform gold. So I think people should stop talking on Twitter about it's bad. You're saying specifically that Bitcoin from like a price appreciation. Price appreciation. It is the fastest horse.

It will be the fastest horse. We can, you can spend hours explaining why, but I've just, or, or not. I think it's and I, And the way I think about it is in the next sort of five years, I can see gold at $4,000. So that's a double. But if gold's at $4,000, Bitcoin is probably somewhere between $300,000 and $500,000. So that's a 20-30x. Well, it was from last week. It's still, I mean, it's about a 20-30x.

And so I don't really think that anyone in the gold world, even Tudor Jones, as he's his fastest horse, they're not going to. debate that. So I don't, you know, I don't, you know, so, and if you're a little, if you're a small investor, you know, you may, you may say, well, I don't need gold. I just want the one that's going to perform the best over a bunch of years. Okay. But gold has certain characteristics characteristics and traits today that I don't think, I'm not sure people are aware of. And like, So why bother with gold at all? You use the Blockbuster and Netflix analogy, right? And I think that's actually the wrong analogy, because you, and also, and Saylor too, by the way, who I love to death, but, you know, you come from a technologist background, right? And so you look at it and you say, Bitcoin is new technology. Gold is old technology. Okay. So there is some truth to that. There is some truth to that. But that's not, that's not why gold is important today or why it will be in the future. So, okay. So what is, you know, what is, what's important about gold?

Hold on. Let's start with gold itself, right? In terms of like, why is gold important today? Right. So one of the things is gold is tremendous liquidity, right? It's an $11 trillion to $12 trillion total market value. Bitcoin is still only $350 billion. So if you are an institution, let's say you're the, as an example, this Norwegian oil fund, they have a trillion dollars. they want to put 5% to work in, let's say, a non-fiat asset that is scarce, okay? They can't do Bitcoin. They can do $50 billion of gold in less than a week. I mean, you can really accumulate that, right? It trades $50 trillion in volume a year, right? Versus, let's say, three to four trillion in Bitcoin slash all the other cryptocurrencies. So in terms of trading

volume, it's much bigger. OK, but gold and I think a lot of people are missing this is just now entering a new phase. It is just now entering a bull market. And I might even argue that this coming up is gold's first bull market. And I say this because, and again, I did a longer interview in March on this. It's on YouTube. But I say this because we've never had zero rates or negative real rates for this long.

I think that the bond portion of all of these traditional asset managers portfolio, okay has now become irrelevant so let's just say you have 200 trillion dollars in assets out there or even 100 trillion dollars owned by pension funds insurance companies all these guys and they have these 70 30 portfolios right so you're talking about 70 trillion i'm sorry seven uh 70 percent uh in uh yeah 70 trillion in in equity or assets you've got 30 sitting in government bonds just in that one cohort, right? Those bonds do not act as a hedge to their portfolio anymore. They're sitting at 50 basis points, right? They cannot go below zero. If we have a slowdown to

the next few years and the Fed has to come in again and take rates negative in the front end and inject liquidity, those bonds will not appreciate to offset declines on the asset side of the portfolio. Okay. They're in big trouble. And I've said this on Twitter. I've said it, you know, a few times that the biggest question that people will have traditional asset managers in the 2020s to answer is what am I going to do with all of those government bonds or even like, you know, corporate bonds that are, that used to yield five that are now yielding one and a half or two, because they've gone out the risk spectrum. One of the things that they will do and they have not done it yet is to move into gold, okay?

And so I don't know even if you're aware of this, but the institutional allocation to gold is less than 2% globally, okay? It cannot be over for gold before it is even started. So when you say Bitcoin and gold can't coexist, that makes no sense to me because the move into gold hasn't happened yet. The move into Bitcoin will come after that.

And I know some people will say, oh no, smart people will just jump over the gold step and they'll just go right to the Bitcoin, right? Well, it's too early for that. And also, the mentality of people in that traditional asset world, they're way far away from owning Bitcoin. I mean, I know from when you were, you know, as a private equity slash VC investor, you speak to some of these institutions.

And there are many of them that are years and years away. You know, we talk about the ones who are allocating now, you know, who understand it now and all the institutions are coming. But it's the top 1%, right? 90% of them still, I just got a message today, it's not a proven valid technology. How many times have you heard of that? So those people are sitting with all of those bonds. And from 1980 until today, every time we've had a slowdown, the bonds offset losses on their equities. For the first time ever, that's over.

And so why move to gold? because they're going to move 5% or 10% of their portfolio to gold because gold does not have a limit on the upside when central banks are in balance sheet expansion mode. Why have so many institutions not put assets like historically, right? So over the last 2, 5, 10 years, why have they kept that allocation at 2% or lower? It's actually, I mean, it's pretty much zero for almost all of them.

And then a few of them are like five and five percent or whatever. So it averages out to like one or two. You know, it's just like anything. Gold was pegged until 71. And, you know, it didn't exist as a market from 33 to 71. So it didn't trade. It was pegged. The 70s bull market in gold was really just about a release from a peg.

I wouldn't even say it was, you know, no one. It was a trading asset. I don't think that people thought of maybe they thought they'd have a little bit of it. But remember, it peaked in 1980. Okay. And went into a bear market for 20 years. Gold price was declining for 20 years. So if there was somebody out there who thought gold should be in your portfolio circa 1978, by 1988, he was, you know, he was proven wrong or, you know, and then by 98, you know, he was dead on the ground. And then in 2000, I think it was 2000, you had the Bank of England sell the complete low, you know, and people just completely gave up on it. Of course, then, you know, with the rise of China, gold then sort of took on a different, you know, took on a different narrative. I mean, gold like Bitcoin has different narratives that drive it at different times. It's an incredible asset in that way. I would just say sort of historical predilection. Again, a big bear market, and then people sort of having done really well in equities, right? Equities, you know, went sideways from 68 to 83, basically. So you made no money in equities for 15 years. But then look, since 1980, you've done great, and technology has come and changed everything. and driven returns in the economic. So people haven't needed to look at gold, right? Also in

America, Americans are very comfortable with equity and with their currency. So we've never really been forced to think about non-dollar assets. We've never had to worry about inflation. When the dollar goes down, as it did from 2008, euro went from 80 to 160. People forget the dollar lost you know uh you know whatever 70 80 percent of its value against the euro um uh and has you know over periods of time but it didn't hurt us we saw it you know the equity market benefited um but like in foreign countries and especially in the em they do have currency problems right They do have weak monetary policy people who, you know, do, you know, quasi-legal things, do, you know, do actively debase their currencies. So for them, gold is more a part of their portfolio than for ours.

I would say only the Germans and the Swiss really historically, and then the Chinese and the Indians. but you know I just think amongst the really big portfolios globally you know there just hasn't been an experience with it and look even just as an example just look on Twitter how many true truly smart gold advocates are there you know there aren't there I mean of the you know I interviewed Tom Kaplan, you know, and John Hathaway for Raul Q4. Those are two super smart gold guys. You know, they're also older people, right? I mean, you know, John's in the 70s. Tom is, you know, is young, still in his 50s. But, you know, the preeminent guys are still very old and not sort of out there getting the message out.

So look, I think it's coming. That's when you say something like, why hasn't the world put 5% or 10%? I think there's just, there's no Mr. Gold. There's no Morgan Stanley of gold, right? I think that's it. There's not been an advocate. Like imagine if gold had a guy like you,

the way you advocate for bitcoin and throw in michael saylor and some of the other guys who are out there really you know banging the drum um gold doesn't have anyone out there like that uh yeah and i guess as you think about um kind of a lot of these institutions now are obviously seeing hey central banks aren't playing around right they're going to keep just printing and printing money balance sheets are going to continue to expand there's going to be weaker currencies around the world um one definitely is going to be hey we should put gold in the portfolio but it sounds like you're bullish on both gold being out of the portfolio and also bitcoin just in different sizes yeah i think i think that's right but i also think it's for

different groups of people okay explain that so look i mean if you're if you're a retail guy uh and you know you're you're you're you're passionate about bitcoin and you know you think it's going to change the world as you know as i do um i'm as bullish as any of those guys out there pounding the table i'm just not as loud about it i think you know you don't you should have some gold but you don't you don't really need it the way that larger investors really need gold now and they don't have it because in their portfolio they have a big hole right so for them they should have that 5%. They should have that 10% or even more. And they're going to have a hard time getting the gold on. I mean, I'm sorry, getting the Bitcoin on. At some point in the

future, when Bitcoin is, you know, a $5 trillion asset, yeah, I think it becomes easier to handle, maybe even 2, 3, 4 trillion. But we'll get into that. I think that's also, it's an intellectual leap that is very hard for people to make, and we can get into that. But I think these things coexist for a while because they're both hedges to the fiat system, right? I don't think fiat is going away anytime soon. Governments, central banks, they're not going away. I just, you know, control power they're not going to give all the world's uh elite uh they're not giving up uh this power just because bitcoin is going up 20x right it yep it's just years and years so but if you don't believe in what's going on in the system you don't have a lot of options right so gold will

remain that an option, right? So another thing just to touch on is that we don't really have enough liquid stores of value available in the investment world. But remember, I'm coming at this from the investment perspective. You're coming at it from the tech perspective and saying gold is old tech. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. I, I, it is a little, but that's not the point. The point is you don't have a hedge to the existing system at all. Look, real estate now, which many people thought, you know, was, is getting crushed in the cities. I mean, who even knows? I mean, eventually, you know, we'll get back to work in that way, but it's not a great, you know, maybe over a 30 year period, I guess it's a good store of value. I don't know.

I don't really know real estate that well, but. And is your thought, Dan, that when an institution says, hey, look, the central banks are printing tons of money, we've got to get some sort of hedge, whether it's to inflation, you know, kind of a whole story. Do they look to an inflation hedge basket and then pick individual assets within the basket? Or do you think most of them are looking for more of like index like exposure to inflation hedges like how do you think about the allocation decision well i i think you try to find different things that i mean if you're really that big uh you you probably you know there's certain equities that'll perform uh you know well when gold performs you know there are miners as well there are other things i don't i mean i'm not

managing a trillion dollar portfolio i don't really worry about that i have a you know i have a very large percent of dtap which is my own entity allocated to gold and bitcoin and i i see the two together for me and i have more gold than i have bitcoin um but you know look increasingly the bitcoin side is getting much larger um because i i am a as i say in my twitter bio i mean i am a toddler of gold, of physical, and Bitcoin, I think. So when I say that each person has different needs, so gold is really important to this institutional world, but they've yet to acknowledge it, right?

You don't see it in the allocations yet. People don't have it. The language of understanding gold is really still just in its infancy for them right that's why it this coexistence ending it is is totally off base because for these people it hasn't even started yet and that's why i keep saying gold and bitcoin are like cousins because you know it's a hard money asset in a world where for the first time in my career, there has never been as clear and active a debasement of fiat, ever. I mean, in the last 30, ever. So, what are you going to do against that, right? Historically,

a store of value was like the yen, right? Or the Swiss franc. But no one's buying the yen anymore. That's like 15 years ago. That's the problem is that there aren't enough safe haven options they're not enough store of value options available to the investor and so saying that gold is going to go away even before it started like it's except it's it's acceptance mode right like so let me do this i want to i want to walk through kind of step by step as to the thesis that i have as to like where i get to hey they won't be coexistence And I want to try to pinpoint the point at which we diverge in thinking, because I actually think we agree on a whole lot. At some point towards the end, there's this divergence and I want to

try to pinpoint that. So the way that I think about this is like the legacy system, the central banks, like there's a bunch of problems. They're going to debase currencies and investors are going to flee to inflation hedge type assets or store value assets. I think you and I see eye to eye on that. And we could literally talk for hours and hours and hours about all the problems, but we agree there. The second thing is that the solution or one of the main solutions is going to be sound money principles, right? And I think that then where we get to is like gold is the analog application of those sound money principles, right? You say, hey, look, I want the physical gold. I'm going to get the gold. I'm going to put it outside the making system. And I have control

of like an analog asset that I can touch and feel. Right. But that's me and you agreeing on that. If you were to sit in a room with more traditional, that $100 trillion, they may not, they may not. Really? Explain why they may not agree with that. Well, look, they can see that it's happening, but they're looking at, you know, what are their ranges, range of opportunity, the opportunity sets. They're just, they've never done it before. The allocation even to gold miners, gold, it's not that big. No one in that room, okay, I'll tell you this for sure, is sitting around and saying gold can be $4,000 in five, six years from now.

I say that to you, and you're like, yeah, that's reasonable, right? The Bitcoiners are more gold believers than everyone else outside of the Bitcoin world. You see what I'm saying? So if you come into my world, so here, I run the investment committee for an endowment. Like I do it on my, you know, as part of my charitable activity. It's a $500 million endowment. I've worked on it for 11 years, okay? We have an institutional advisor.

So we have an advisor who advises over a trillion dollars in assets, all right? It has been extremely difficult over the years for me to get them to let us have some gold. I mean, we finally did about 18 months ago, we went into gold. They don't recommend out front and center, everyone needs some gold because of currency debasement and because bonds are at 50 basis points. They are just now in the last six to 12 months saying maybe you should entertain some gold. So I'm seeing this from that perspective. I'm in that, right? I'm really a, you know, a hedge fund investor, trader, entrepreneur, but I span the entire

realm as well as like a Bitcoiner. So I go from endowment manager to Bitcoiner, right? I love it. And by the way, that endowment put 1% of its portfolio into Bitcoin in Q1, Q2, 19 last year. So, and then that took, we became the first, it was, well, the first endowment of its kind to own Bitcoin directly. Yeah. Anyway, my point is that, so being in that world, none of those people, like, are really saying what you've just said to me.

Yeah. You agree. But so you and I see gold as this analog application of sound money principles. And then I think we see Bitcoin as like this digital application of sound money principles, right? There's the scarcity, all that kind of stuff. So when I look at that, I say, hey, golden Bitcoin, right? For literally for years now, I've been saying golden Bitcoin or sound money principles, whether it's the analog application or the digital one, we'll end up both doing what, right? Kind of what your position is. Only recently have I

changed my mind and here are the things that i'm starting to think through so if you look at some of the gold right there's gold etf outflows on a very small basis over the last couple of weeks or months i mean yeah but that's just flow i mean of course right so so there was a massive rise and you would expect that not everyone's going to hold all the gold forever and keep buying right so it doesn't just kind of go up into the right forever there's going to be kind of these uh it always goes up and down of course so that was kind of one two then is some of the central banks right have actually been a net seller of gold uh on a very small basis again and and only in the short term so this isn't a long-term trend this is just recently so as i started to think through this i

started to say when these asset allocators look for those sound money principles the big question i think is are they going to allocate across the analog application and the digital or are they going to pick one or the other what i've become convinced of in the first scenario if they pick both then you and i are correct and like both do well right what i'm starting to become more convinced of and was kind of the the impetus for that piece was wait a second they may only pick one and if they do i actually think they pick the digital version not the analog version over a long period of time not in the next three four five years i'm talking over 30 years the moment they can't right at the moment they can't and so and i agree i agree with that it's too it's too much

of a leap what what i was trying to say before was that there you're so far ahead you don't realize it i completely agree in the short term accepted in institutional circles yet right they're gonna say we need a hedge for the next five years to replace our bonds right they can't go in and do 30 billion of bitcoin they just can't do it and it would be irresponsible to own 10 or 20 of all the bitcoin outstanding and they'll draw the price up a lot it just doesn't make sense before they get to a five to ten percent allocation in gold it will be years okay years so that's why now if you're telling me in 50 years from now people will have more bitcoin than gold i mean i think sure it could be maybe but hold on one second hold on one second because i play that thought out as well

reading your piece. I said, so 50 years from now, I have a different thought than you do. Okay. This is what I want to hear is what do you think happens over a long period? 50 years from now, every single asset will be on the blockchain. Every financial asset, whether it's on, you know, the Bitcoin network or whether something in the future happens or whatever it is i i don't know um but everything will be digital every everything of extreme value right we love bitcoin because of its intense security it's unhackable if you want to do you know for large transactions eventually the collateral of the system everything we agree on all of that okay the one thing is that maybe in that time 50 years from now there might actually

be a premium for physical gold because it won't be on the blockchain. Physical gold will be physical. It won't be tracked. So you forget everything, every Bitcoin, everyone knows where it's completely known. And the tax authorities are also going to know and governments are going to know and everyone's going to know. Okay. But they're not going to know on gold. Okay. And they still don't know on gold and physical gold I'm talking about. forget ETF and futures and all that there might be a premium because 50 years from now physical gold will be the only liquid asset that is not digital now some of it will be digitized you know like the PAX gold token could have a 50 billion on it eventually or whatever it is um but that

to me, also in my mind is like, I think that physical gold is completely anonymous if you want it to be. And physical gold is not considered a security also. So the regulations around physical gold and the taxation principles are different. There is a chance that in the future, when Bitcoin becomes an established thing and everyone has it and it's trading at four or five hundred thousand you know government may say yeah we want to tax you guys have made 10 billion dollars we're going to tax bitcoin to 50 percent right it's they'll know it there'll be a record of it physical gold is different and i'll tell you why and this isn't about evading taxes that's a no i'm not talking about that. There are different taxation laws for physical in different jurisdictions. As an

example, in the UK, if you are a UK citizen, you can buy their sovereign coins, the UK sovereign coins, and they're pretty liquid, and pay no tax ever. No capital gains, no income, no wealth, no inheritance, nothing. They're grandfathered in, zero tax forever. So that's a nice way. Yeah, I know. That's one thing. There are many things like that around the world for physical gold. Okay. I'm not going to get into them, but because it's an old asset, because in certain places, they try to encourage ownership of gold. Again, that can change. But remember, in 50 years from now, there could be that premium, right? Because it'll be something that is not known if you want it to be not known, right? So that's something you should think about. I mean, I don't think

it plays into anything that impacts my decision-making because I think it's still early for both assets absolutely and so when you think about kind of the asset allocation whether it's for maybe we'll do a retail investor and then a large institution between bitcoin and gold if somebody called you up and they say hey you know i've got some money in my personal account what do you suggest that allocation or what do you see people doing there and if a big institution call how do you see that asset allocation between bitcoin and gold yeah i mean look uh i think institutions should have somewhere between five and 10% in gold. And then I kind of use a, like a three to one ratio. Um, you know, that's what, that's what I, so if you have, if you have 10%

in gold, 3% in Bitcoin, um, if you're a retail person, depending on your age, like, I think you can have, you know, you can have 20% in Bitcoin. If you're a 30 year old, uh, guy, uh, zero in bonds like zero you should not own any bonds at all zero so i think um yeah i mean i think you know but everyone has different risk appetite it's hard to say i mean i've heard you say you're 80 percent in bitcoin or whatever it is you know i again i i that's uh i really am from sort of the the drunken miller camp of i like to put all my eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully um it's just a macro you know a macro guy uh a focus um you know i want to be in the fastest horse so my guess is is look i think bitcoin outperforms gold tremendously there could

come a point you know maybe not too far in the future where my bitcoin and gold is the same right because i'm not trading growth yeah yeah yeah and i um i think i like wenceslas is you know one percent for institutions to dip their toe in so i think at the very beginning they should have one percent and then it increases with comfort um but if someone just calls me up randomly they're you know uh 40 years old and uh they have no bitcoin they want to buy i just say of 5%. I also like this exposure, and you're probably not aware of this, I'm launching a fund at the end of next month called 10T, and I have a bunch of partners, and we're buying private equity stakes in mid to late stage companies in the digital asset ecosystem. So some of the

companies that even that you own, I would own, you know, let's say Figure, I know you've been a big proponent. I think that that's a fantastic company to own. You know, Kraken and Paxos right now are doing raises. You know, I think those are two excellent companies. So I would I so after my Bitcoin exposure, I say to people I have would have half in Bitcoin and then half in this type of a fun infrastructure. Yeah, because I do believe that, you know, central bank currencies, whether you like them or not, they're coming. You know, DeFi, stable coins, that entire world, whatever you think about it or not, there is going to be a world where everything will be digitized. And there are companies that are facilitating that. And us actually facilitating

commerce. It's not just, you know, the trading volumes, it's actual commerce that will be digitized. So I think that for me is also a chunk of that exposure. And I think as some of these companies come public, people will start to allocate to some of these businesses. Coinbase might be an IPO right in Q1. I think, and we've, yeah, go ahead. And I was going to ask, how do you think about um gold bitcoin and that infrastructure so it tends to be when bitcoin's price rises obviously a lot of the infrastructure companies do really well as well because there's just more trading volumes the price goes up all that kind of stuff how do you think about kind of this recent short-term divergence between gold and bitcoin right around like the correlations

and things like that see i don't think you can trade this thing look i followed markets and traded markets for years. And, you know, there's a lot of time and brain damage that's done with people trying to figure out, you know, day to day moves and this thing move and that thing didn't. This is much bigger than that. I mean, Bitcoin, you know, I don't think you can trade it. I think there's too much risk that you miss, you know, a thousand point move at one in the morning and it never comes back. All the math and studies have shown you really get paid when you hold this thing. It's up 250% annualized for the last 10 years. Why would you ever trade it? And you have two massive down years. So I believe people can do what they want. And if you're 26 years old and

you know, you love, you know, the action and you're kind of a gambler and you want to trade Bitcoin, that's great. I mean, that's great. But in terms of building wealth in Bitcoin and gold as well, it's just not, you know, you're not going to make that money at the end. And I don't want to pay short-term capital gains tax, right? You want to pay as long, you know, you want to pay that long-term capital gains tax rate. So, you know, that plays into this too, right? If you, all that trading you're paying you know you're paying uh income i mean rates it's crazy um i i couldn't agree more help me understand in terms of the sentiment right now you're hearing from the institutional world uh around uh gold and bitcoin it sounds like you're bullish on that sentiment

being more open to adding exposure to gold and you think that'll kind of continue uh in the coming years and then what about bitcoin in terms of same there just on a smaller scale no i i i don't think people are there i mean like you know as i said uh i i've been speaking to a lot of institutional investors um about this this fund that i'm launching of course you talk about bitcoin a lot uh when you talk about digital asset ecosystem and the as you call the the infrastructure around uh around it and you know there's there are a lot of a lot of people out there who won't even discuss it so they're just like we don't believe in crypto is their comment and they haven't they haven't done the work they don't know what the white paper is they don't know

you know they don't they don't know um even look honestly even um you know even someone like i was listening to druck on cnbc and he says look it's a store of value for millennials and for uh people in Silicon Valley, and they're making a lot of money. And I think, you know, it's a good bet in that way. He didn't come out and say, I believe this is a great store of value. He didn't come out and say, you know, this is the security network. This is the money protocol for the internet. He didn't say any of those things. So my guess is he's not even really committed in a big, big way. Not like Michael Saylor. I mean, he's unbelievable. I mean, fantastic that he's getting out there every single day, that he's bought $600 million of Bitcoin. I mean, he's a

huge shot in the arm for the space. I think we're all just grateful to have him. But again, he comes from a technologist background. He's not from the investment background. Now, he's thinking about things in an interesting way, the way he thinks about inflation and depreciation of his assets. And he has his hurdle rate is 15%, because in a way, U.S. equity kind of functions as U.S. fiat, right? And so he's like, well, if fiat is being debased at a dollar, it could go down 15% a year for five or six years. I'm assuming, you know, the equity will continue up. I'm losing my purchasing power so i mean i think he thinks about it that in the right way but that is very innovative that is not normal right and if you have even someone like a drug and some of the other guys not quite

all in like that i mean 600 million is a really i mean that is one that's a big statement right to do that now it's not like the wingelvoss who have had you know a billion plus or whatever for years and years. And there are a handful of guys like that. This is a guy who allocated it basically now. So it's at 10,000. It's a very powerful statement. And his reasoning, I think, is phenomenal. But he also attacks gold. And he says it's dangerous to think about gold and Bitcoin together. And that's actually not right. I mean, maybe within the framework of a tech in a tech background person. But if you are an investor, okay, you haven't come to the conclusion most that you've come to yet. Many have, some have, but again, you're just seeing the smartest

guys in the world coming to it now. Tudor's piece was just last summer. It didn't come out five years ago. Druck was just on CNBC last week. Those are the smartest guys in the space in the world, right? And Dalio, he's not even there yet. He wants to be taught. He's asking you on Twitter, maybe you and Saylor sit him down. And he is at the cutting edge apex, really, of that traditional world. So that just shows you how far away. They're not even there yet. they don't even know how to think about it yet. So I just, I have like a different perspective and I don't think it's dangerous to think about gold and Bitcoin. I think that gold in a way, I don't want to say it's like the gateway drug to Bitcoin because, but it kind of is the gateway

and it seems obvious to you, but it's not really that. How do you think about stock to flow? Obviously that's been a very popular uh thing in the gold world or used in the gold world previously uh and and now has been um kind of applied to bitcoin uh is that something that in the gold world you put uh kind of weight on um or do you not really look i mean i i think it's fine i like it i uh he has an rsi that he puts out a relative strength index in connection with his model you know a hundred trillion and the, the, the stock to flow model that I think is great because when it's low, that's when you're supposed to buy when it's high, you're supposed to sell, but it works over years and it's, it's

had a very good tracking. We're right in the middle now. And I think I put a tweet out last week about it. So I like it, but in some ways it's a relatively, I don't want to say simplistic model. Um, there's a lot more that goes into making decisions about assets. So yeah, I look at that, but I also look at 50 other things before making a decision. And I look at the gold, where gold is on, and I'm like, yeah, I'm aware of that. But, you know, drilling down into the supply demand mechanics of gold is probably a lot more important. You know, we don't have a lot of gold coming online. I don't want to say we have peak gold, but supply will decline over the next, three, four years. And that just tells me that price is going to have to go up a lot to encourage

a lot more exploration and excavation. So I like it, but it's just one input. And I think people in the Bitcoin space, again, a lot from a technologist background, aren't used to doing the deep, deep 50 page analysis on an investment, you know, which is normally what we do. You know, I, you know, ordinarily I would have, you know, between four and eight research analysts will spend months writing a presentation or an idea out before taking a position. That's months of digging. It's not just, here's the model we're going to buy. I mean, no one does that. No one who's long for this world does that right so it's just a nice input i think he he got attacked a little bit recently i just it's because you know eventually there'll be a lot more work like that

i think nick carter does tremendous work i mean i agree more tremendous work um you know so i yeah let's talk a little bit about twitter before i let you go just in terms of twitter is where kind of the community is, where the conversation is. You mentioned earlier this idea of privacy and how privacy used to be a big thing, but is quickly not becoming a big thing in the investment world. Talk a little bit about this. Well, no, no, no. I, yeah, I think, look, as I said, I think, you know, in the first 20 years of my career, you basically, as I said, you, you know, you get fired for talking to the press and people didn't talk to the press and uh it just you just didn't you focused on your ideas and your portfolio and you know and moved on but i think that i think that's

sort of a very you know almost it's it's it feels to me old and archaic i try to move away from things that are old uh because they don't evolve and you know the the the concept of complete 100 percent privacy uh i i just i don't want to say i see going away but it's just that look there's you get up you get quite a benefit from these interactions as well uh so you have to give up a little bit of privacy um look metcalf's law is something real and here's something that um investment guys macro investment guys especially don't really get as much like they don't really get the network value for instance of bitcoin like it doesn't really make sense like where's the cash flow well there's no cash flow but but the network is expanding at a crazy fast rate

right so it's sort of the same thing with bitcoin i mean with twitter i mean i guess the hive mind concept that you know you get so much from interactions again 50 70 percent of it you know can be garbage, but 10, 20% of it is really good. And there are people out there, you know, who may not necessarily be, you know, well-known fund managers, or even necessarily that successful, but who can have great ideas. And so this is a forum, you know, this is a forum for that. Just, I don't know, the old guys are just, they're just uncomfortable giving up a little bit of that privacy and i think the benefits are great and also it's becoming a little weird to be a hermit you know i mean even uh if you're it's just weird if you don't have

you know if you're not on any social media anywhere people think you're hiding something or even though you may not be um so anyway i i like i like the interaction lots of smart people from all over the world who you'd never get to interact with um and you know i i just i i uh make liberal use of that uh of that blocking function as well because i don't really like cursing or personal attacks or people who are too emotional about all this i like you know it just life's too short and i like to read my threads i like them to be clean i like to go back and look at them you know uh you know have conversations sometimes with some people's comments so you don't want a lot of you know nonsense yeah right i mean you know some people like it i yeah absolutely

before i let you go let's talk a little bit just about uh when you zoom all the way out and you see gold and bitcoin um and kind of the institutional world what is your maybe not prediction but just what's your sense of like how this plays out we you know let's go 10 years from now do majority of institutions have exposure to gold and 20 have exposure to bitcoin uh and they're at that kind of 10 and three percent you mentioned like like how do you think this plays out let's say through the 2020s where do we end up um i think we'll get to a place so you're saying 10 years or not i mean this is hard. Look, I think we get to a place where people have between, you know, these big institutions call it, I could see 10% in gold and five in Bitcoin, and some might reverse that.

The more speculative guys who are used to investing in venture capital as well, you know, they could have maybe 10%, 15%. You know, it'll eat away a little bit of people's equity allocations and a little bit at um you know and of course the bonds will be at zero so um you know that's a huge huge chunk i mean 15 percent of uh you know 100 trillion right is 15 trillion that could be 15 trillion to flow to flow into um or more i mean i think it'll eventually be more because look for me bitcoin we didn't talk about this but i is much bigger than gold all right bitcoin is you know it could be and i think will be that value protocol for the internet gold is a store of value bitcoin is an entire network right one aspect of what bitcoin

is, is a store of value. That's another reason I don't understand all the constant comparisons to gold, because you're limiting what it is. And if you say to an investor, oh, it's just digital gold, they're like, no, it's not. And that's it. But if you say to them, this is an invention akin to the invention and discovery of electricity, or the invention of the combustible engine, Then they're like, what are you talking about? It's just digital gold, you said. No, it's not. That's one little aspect of what Bitcoin is. So I think that people in the space who harp on this comparison are, you know, at least for the bigger investment world, they're not telling the story the right way. this Satoshi's white paper solved the Byzantine generals problem. That's a big deal. No one else was able to solve that problem. The mechanics of how Bitcoin works is very complex, but it's an unbelievable creation. Gold is not that creation. Gold is important in the investment world as a

store of value and a hedge against the fiat bitcoin is bigger than you know it could be a system that grows up that's equal in size to the entire legacy system so i don't know why people don't focus on that aspect more the you know the the the collateral for the new system right the I mean, all of those bigger things like the security. Look, it turns. What have we had that turns energy into security? Right. Gold doesn't turn. Gold actually does turn a little bit of energy into security because it takes a lot of energy to produce a bar of gold. And gold is very secure. You know, Brinks vaults have never been violated. I mean, it's a lot more secure than I think the Bitcoiners understand. But look, it's not this unbelievable, almost like machine, this mechanism.

Okay, investors don't get there because they stop at, oh, it digital. Well, maybe, but maybe not. If they were to understand what it actually is, right, this bulletproof security truth mechanism you know you know i have real estate investors especially coming to me trying to understand this because they think you know you probably see this with some of your companies they think that um eventually all the transactions that get done you know are put on some blockchain or are put on the bitcoin network or however you know i mean that would be transformative of this 100 200 100 trillion in in real estate assets around the world imagine if you know that

we're all on the bitcoin network i'm just saying you can't do that with gold right gold is not that so you know bitcoin is much bigger it's a much bigger thing it's a very nuanced i'm gonna ask you this question okay why do guys in the space not push that message out there i obviously i can't speak for everybody i do think that uh one is um there's a group of people who don't believe that right i'm with you i believe it but i think that what don't they believe what don't they believe i think there's some people who literally just think it's digital gold and they talk about it that way right now maybe that's a small group but there's definitely some people who just think that then there's a group of people who believe kind of wait wait a second

anthony hold on a second because there aren't even that many people who really believe in gold and so you're telling me that guys are like okay it's digital gold and that's it and they're and then they move on well i think put in that bucket i think what ends up happening is there's a lot of people who would have been gold bugs right like like a group of people who naturally would they're just much younger and so they hear bitcoin right okay and so like again it may be a small group but there's definitely that group then there's a group of people who have a belief in that bigger vision but they're scared to talk about it so what do they do is they basically just say oh it's digital gold they explain it on a smaller scale because they think that the group that

they're talking to will uh be more receptive to that right it's kind of like if you walk in and uh and you pitch amazon in 1994 and you say uh we're going to be the largest company in the world everyone goes good luck kid right if you sell books on the internet I'll give you some money for that right right but on Twitter people can voice their opinions as they like why doesn't this message get out there

I mean Antonopoulos and some things especially his older YouTubes he gets into this the Safa Dean Amos book he gets into sort of a bigger vision you know there are other books and articles out there but

you know I don't You know, I don't really get it because it is that mechanism, right? It's the functioning, you know, figuring out how the miners work and the node operators and this proof of work algorithm. Maybe those words just scare people. I don't know. Yeah, it's definitely part of it. And then I think that there's actually a big group of people who believe exactly what you just said about like a really big opportunity, right? And I'm one of them, you're one of them, and all of that. Because I think you hold a very nuanced view, right? It's a view of gold and Bitcoin will coexist. Bitcoin will have a larger market cap over a long period of time. But gold's market cap will also increase.

It may, like, 50 years from now. Yeah, a very long period of time. Yeah. And then on top of that, that doesn't necessarily mean as Bitcoin's market cap grows, that gold's market cap goes down. they actually may grow in lockstep well they will grow in lockstep and for the next 10 years many institutions have no alternative they need this in their portfolio the goal so

i think it's like growing together as you say for at least 10 years uh you know at least i mean i but Bitcoin will be the fastest horse. Yeah. And look, I think that that's probably one of the most rational views of how this plays out, especially over 10 years, right? Like, I tend to think that that is probably more right than wrong. And the big question is just going to be

what's it take to get the, you know, $800 billion, trillion-dollar asset managers to start putting gold in there and Bitcoin as well, right? it. I think it's more of the same, you know, this balance sheet expansion, you know, moving to negative rates. I'm shocked that it's actually taken so long, to be honest, because Europe and Japan have had negative rates. You know, you actually get paid to own physical gold if you're borrowing at that negative rate. So there's no storage fee at all. I'm just surprised it's, you know, it's taking this long for this wholesale adoption. But look, people get used to

patterns of behavior and get used to assets. And look, price goes up, helps in gold too, right absolutely it's not just uh uh bitcoin i love it all right i ask the same question to everyone uh two questions before i wrap up and you'll get to ask me one the first is what's the most important book that you've ever read oh god there are a few um someone asked me about this recently, I should have, well, a book that I recommended recently to somebody that is certainly in my top five is The Rebel by Camus. Why do you like that one? Yeah, that, I mean, it's sort of the best uh you know intellectual history of a western philosophy so i i did a bama in history brown so i i've always sort of tended towards history and philosophy and um i think there's a

a really great personal message there i mean that book um yeah that book's been very important to me yeah i love it second question is more i also like go ahead no go ahead what was you gonna say you know for the for this crowd though a little more i mean i also love the fountainhead um you know that was a key book when i was younger that i you know kind of you know there are aspects of that that i love some not so much but i can remember uh that had a profound effect on me when i was young too so i love it second question is more fun aliens are you a believer or a non-believer aliens uh yeah i think the probability is there's something out there i mean you know look there are hundreds of billions of galaxies right hundreds of billions at some point some

molecules must have come together you know just probability yeah i i just the odds are there uh it might take us another billion years to know it right i mean you don't know but when you ask an open-ended question like that i think the odds are are there yeah i agree with you i completely agree what uh what one question do you have for me to finish up um how the hell do you uh do all the stuff that you do i just don't understand it i you're on twitter it's you know 2 a.m and then you write the newsletter and that comes out and then you're you know you're you're involved in an offering of uh you're just i i what's your workout regimen because that's that for me is what keeps everything

together yeah so uh over time i've gotten hyper efficient with my time and i basically have like blocks on my schedule of i know okay now switch context like working on this working on that so that definitely helps uh from a workout standpoint um i have spent a ton of time trying to optimize sleep and right what i found is i have two it's very important yeah and what i found is uh working out is the key to sleep so what the way i think about it is like i want to do enough physical activity every day to tire myself out so that I sleep well at night. Um, and, uh, usually that can be anywhere between like 35 to an hour and a half. Uh, one of the hacks in quarantine has been, uh, every day, every day, every day, you don't miss a day. I mean, I might miss a day

like here or there randomly, but, but nothing, I don't try to miss a day. Um, but the other thing that I've started doing that is really helpful is when I'm taking calls I'll go on walks so I may end up some days I may go you know and have walked for two hours outside and then I'll come and I'll like finish you know working out or whatever. Yeah but you're not that old a guy to be like going on walks. I mean like you could what are you 37, 38, 39, 32. You should be I mean walks I mean, you should be on the, uh, on the treadmill, hitting it hard or, uh, working up a sweat. Yeah. I guess you're right. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So when I'm not on the phone, I'm not going on walks,

but if I'm on a phone call, basically it's a way to kind of be hyper-efficient with my time, right. Get the call done and also some physical activity. So yeah, it's, uh, it's not, you're, you're just multitasking through it. Yeah, exactly. That's all. No, no, no, no. I presume you see yourself in this business for the next, you know, 20 years. Just having fun. Yeah, no, me too.

I mean, I think this is going to be my focus for, you know, the next 10 years plus, this world. I don't see, and I don't see anything with as much asymmetry to the upside, right? Nothing. Nothing, right? It's so early still. It's going to be fun, that's for sure. Where can I send people to find you on the internet or find out what you're working on? Just send them to Twitter.

Yeah. I mean, D tap cap, uh, is there, I'm, I'm not on LinkedIn. It's so funny. I get like all these requests every day, but I don't do it because I was never a guy that did that. I was not going out and meeting clients, you know, I was an investor, so I just never got around to doing that. Twitter's way better. Twitter's what LinkedIn should have been anyways. Of course I'm on Bloomberg, but you know, that sort of dates me, right? Like I can't live without my, it used to be Bloomberg was the cutting edge. I used to transact over Bloomberg where I would

just send it a message and say, you know, buy this today. Right. Yeah. I mean, yeah. So now it's all Twitter. All right, my friend, listen, thank you so much for chatting. Absolutely. You are an absolute legend and I appreciate the time. We will definitely have to do this again in the future yeah i love this i i had some points i didn't make that maybe i'll make next time and uh have a good thanksgiving and congratulations uh as a newlywed thank you very much that's a lot of fun all right dan thank you so much see you