The Pomp Podcast - #632 Bitcoin Supply Shock w/ Will Clemente

Episode Date: August 14, 2021

Will Clemente is a Finance Major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. Subscribe to Will’s new email newsletter here: https://btcbywc3.substack.com/ In this conversation, we discuss the supply squeeze, strong hands buying, dormancy looking better, and what happens when bitcoin broke $42,000.  ======================= Gemini is a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn bitcoin, ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. Offering industry-leading security, insurance and uptime, Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. Open a free account in under 3 minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. ======================= Do you have a business idea you’ve been dreaming about, but don’t know how to actually start building it? Use Bubble’s drag-and-drop tool to develop custom, interactive, multi-user web apps in hours. Go to Bubble.io to build, launch, and scale real ideas and products without engineers or code! Bubble is the go-to no-code platform for over 1 million builders, and has recently closed a $100M funding round to continue supporting startups like yours, from MVP to IPO. Go to Bubble.io/pomp and the first 500 listeners will get their first month free on any of Bubble’s paid plans.  ======================= Polymarket is the world’s leading information markets platform where you can trade on the most pressing global questions and see unbiased, real-time data on what the market thinks will happen – all on the blockchain. For a limited time, sign up with referral code “Pomp” to get your first trade reimbursed up to $100. Click on the link to get started: polymarket.co/pomppod

what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off will clemente is a finance major at east carolina university he's quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin including deep dives on various on-chain analytics you can subscribe to will's new email by clicking on the link in the description that i've provided In this conversation, we discuss the supply squeeze, strong hands buying, dormancy looking better, and what happens when Bitcoin broke $42,000. I really enjoyed this conversation with Will, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors.

First up is Gemini. They're a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn Bitcoin, Ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. They offer industry-leading security, insurance, and uptime. Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. You can open a free account in under three minutes at Gemini.com slash POMP and get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within the first 30 days. Again, you can open a free account in under three minutes at Gemini.com slash POMP and you'll get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within the first 30 days.

Go check it out. Next up is PolyMarket, the world's leading information markets platform, where you can trade on the most pressing global questions all on the blockchain. You can choose from a variety of markets. Will Cardano support smart contracts by October? Will the U.S. have more than 100,000 COVID cases before 2022? Will Trump run for president? With over $100 million traded in the first year,

Polymarket is the go-to platform to settle the biggest debates of the day. Think you know more than the market? Trade on your beliefs and earn a return, if you're right. Want tomorrow's news today? Use Polymarket to see real-time data on what the market thinks will happen. No fake news, no pundits without skin in the game. So head over to polymarket.com and make an account today. For a limited time, if you sign up with the referral code POMP

to get your first trade reimbursed up to 100 bucks. Again, go click on polymarket.co slash POMP pod or use the referral code POMP when you sign up for an account and you'll get your very first trade up to $100 reimbursed by the platform. Go check it out at polymarket.co. Last but not least is Bubble. Do you have a business idea you've been dreaming about but don't know how to actually start building it?

Use Bubble's drag-and-drop tool to develop custom, interactive, multi-user web apps in hours. Go to Bubble.io to build, launch, and scale real ideas and products without engineers or code. Bubble is the go-to no-code platform for over 1 million builders and has recently closed a $100 million funding round to continue supporting startups like yours, from MVP to IPO. Go to Bubble.io slash Pomp, and the first 500 listeners will get their first month free on any of Bubble's paid plans. Again, bubble.io slash Pomp, and the first 500 listeners get their first month free on any of the paid plans. Bubble's awesome. I think you'll really enjoy it, so make sure you go check it out. All right, let's get into this episode with Will. I hope you guys enjoy this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments.

All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Will is here. Will, what's up, man? Hey, brother. What's going on? Not much. Getting ready to head back to school this afternoon, so I'm stoked.

Let's go. Have a good weekend. Now, Will is going back to school. I feel like everyone forgets all the time that you still have like another life outside of Bitcoin. But what no one is going to forget is you got that sweatshirt on the day one best business show hoodie. Absolutely love to see it. All right, let's jump into on-chain metrics. And I think kind of the first takeaway really is just accumulation still is showing to be really, really strong across all these different metrics, right? Yeah, for sure. You know, obviously this is something that we've been looking at for a while,

but you know, there's a couple of different ways we can break this down. For a while, we had just been looking at the liquid supply shock ratio and what that is it's essentially a ratio of um the amount of bitcoin held by strong hands compared to weak hands or as glassnode puts it um a liquid and liquid and highly liquid entities but you know just for layman's terms just saying strong and weak hands i think is is pretty sufficient um so that's one way to look at it more of like a um a qualitative way to look at like where the coins are moving right and and And so when you look at this ratio, I mean, it's been moving up pretty strong over the last two, three weeks as we've been covering. But it's now at what previously marked Bitcoin at price levels of 55 to 57K.

So I still think like this still hasn't fully been priced in yet, although we have been starting to see it get priced in over the last two weeks. Next, we have the exchange supply shock ratio. So while the previous was more of like a qualitative way to look at the supply shortage, This is more of a quantitative way, just literally looking at the amount of coins that are available to be bought versus the amount that aren't. So the amount of coins that are on exchanges versus measured against the overall circulating supply. And so you're seeing an uptick in this as well. And then third, we have the long-term holder supply shock ratio. this is uh very similar to the liquid supply but this is looking at um the ratio of coins held by

long-term holders versus short-term um and so the ratio that glassnode uses to cut this off is 155 days because they've like done some statistic research on uh just the fact that like once you get right around that mark the likelihood of market participants moving those coins out of their wallet kind of drops off. And so like for anybody who wants to like look into the nuance of it, they have a research article published on their website. So, you know, you have three different measures of this accumulation that you can look at and they're all pointing the same thing, which is, you know, really aggressive buying. And so as we continue to see more and more buying happening, I think that most people say, OK, this market structure is setting up. And so

the bulls are looking to higher prices and saying, you know, kind of the supply squeeze thesis is going to play out. There is critics or those that are still bearish and they're really looking at this as kind of a dead cat bounce. I know that you've done a bunch of work to try to see, you know, what are some of the data points that either support the dead cat bounce theory or actually end up being kind of critical of it. So where are you coming out in terms of could this just be a dead cat bounce? Yeah, for sure. You know, I think it's I think it's like a logical thought process and it's something like everybody has to keep in mind until it's disproven. Cause you can never, you know,

speak in absolutes and rule out everything. But, you know, looking at, I guess the evidence and trying to build a case, I think there's a pretty strong case against this being a dead cat bounce. And the reason I say that is because, you know, one of the things that we said we were looking for like two weeks ago is, okay, if we start moving back up, are these long-term holders that have been buying, are they just going to dump on like the first opportunity that they get um and so like the way

to look at this is you know we can look at a few ways that the one i i threw in the newsletter this week um was the spent output age bands so this is literally looking at um the you know the the the utxos being spent you know in certain age bands and so looking at um the age bands of six older than six months which is the closest i can get to that long-term holder 155 day cutoff What you see is that, you know, at the end of the bull market, when you have a dead cat, all of a sudden, you know, all those long-term holders pile in and take the exit liquidity. As they say, okay, I want to, you know, I'm going to GTFO, you know, because prices have bounced up a little bit. I still think we're going much further down. I'm going to take this opportunity to just get out of the market.

And so that's been one thing that I've been really looking for and haven't seen. And so that's a really positive sign that, you know, these long-term holders that have, A, you know, been in the market for a while or, B, just starting to mature into that, you know, 155-day threshold, they aren't selling on this exit liquidity. So, you know, that, in my opinion, is a pretty strong case against it being a dead cap. Got it. And then when we start to look at our favorite metric, which is SOPRA, remind everyone what SOPRA is and then kind of what you're seeing there. Yeah, I feel like you and I have been talking about SOPR here for like two months straight. SOPR is basically just a ratio of the profit and loss that coins hold. So what you're basically looking at is, you know, are the coins that are being traded on the day, are they being traded in profit or loss in aggregate? And so, you know, in the bull market, what you see is that like every time that SOPR dips below one, it's a really good buy opportunity.

because people in a raging bull market, there's really low tendency that they're going to want to sell at a loss, right? And then conversely, in a bear market, whenever SOPR goes above one, you know, it's a good time to trim some because, you know, you're in a downtrend. People are just going to sell on any up move that they get.

And so we had been kind of hovering below one, you know, since the May 19th capitulation. But what we've seen over the last couple of weeks is this move back up over the one threshold. And then we've been looking for twofold after that. So, A, we're looking for a retest of one. So, you know, price drops and then we bounce off and hold that one threshold as support. And then two, we're looking for, you know, seeing if we could stabilize above one, which would be a really good time.

So far, we have gotten that bounce off of one, like a textbook bounce off of it. And then right now, it looks like we're starting to stabilize. to think maybe need you know a couple more days a week to really like get full confirmation but it looks really good so far got it and then funding rates i know it's something else you've been spending a lot of time looking at yeah so um funding rates is like in layman's terms it's basically like the mechanism that pegs the perpetual swap which is the you know it's a futures contract pretty unique to bitcoin in the sense that like it never expires you know the reason it exists is well several fold part of it like because it clears so fast you know it

makes um getting leverage easier um but the funding rate basically pegs the perpetual to the bitcoin index price which is like a weighted average of all the major exchanges and so when funding is below um when funding is negative i should say um what what's that what's what that is showing is that um spot is being more is being bid up more aggressively than the futures and then Conversely, when the funding rate is above the spot price, you know, you have positive funding rates. So that's showing that, you know, it's taking a long position is more aggressive in the market, I guess. I'm probably worded that terribly, but what you're looking for is like prolonged positive funding or prolonged negative funding are both signals of, you know, perhaps a reversal. And so throughout like the main phase of the bull market, we had positive funding rates, like really high positive funding rates.

But then after May 19th, we had pretty negative funding rates all across the board throughout that whole kind of consolidation. We have started to see funding rates move like slightly positive again. But when you compare where we are now, you know, at 46K compared to where we were in terms of funding back in February at the same price levels, it's just not even comparable. Open interest is still not at those levels. It's coming back up. But both of those things, especially funding, is really far from where it was in February. And so, like, the key takeaway here is that this rally is really being spot-driven. That's also reflected in, like, when you look at bids, right?

You're seeing bids being moved up. And so people are, in other words, like, respecting the pump, right? People are getting kind of impatient. You know, people had bids set down at, like, $35K. We broke out of the range. people said okay yeah maybe i won't get 35k maybe i'll get a good entry if we retest you know the top of the range we never retest the top of the range now people are moving uh their bids up higher so yeah like all in all like also seeing like the accumulation trends um i you know i

believe that this rally is really spot driven yeah and then i know that we've also talked a bunch in the last couple of weeks about miners and it feels like uh we can tell a lot from what they're doing uh you recently wrote uh one of the best historical buy signals in the bitcoin space uh and so when people hear you say that i think their ears kind of perk up explain what this uh kind of hash ribbon buy signal is and then uh kind of what you're seeing the miners do from an accumulation standpoint and the hash uh ribbon stuff yeah sure so like first of all um hashes started to slightly recover you know we're still obviously very far from where we were um you know peak in in april early may um but you know we we are starting to see a slight recovery

and so the hash ribbons are basically two moving averages of hash and so what it's trying to capture is like when miners capitulate um and and then start coming back on the network then you have the um cell pressure subsiding right because they're you know they're capitulating you know they're moving off the network and then the hash is that hash rate is starting to come back on And so, in theory, then the forced sell pressure comes off, right? And so that's what the hash ribbons are looking at, looking at the 30 and 60-day moving average of hash. And so whenever the 30-day crosses above the 60-day, that's the buy signal.

And so when you go back historically, the hash ribbons have been one of the most accurate kind of macro, multi-month timeframe buy signals in Bitcoin. So, yeah, we just did get that buy signal a couple of days ago. Got it. And then last, I guess I got two more questions. One is around the miner net position change. That seems to be just a continuation of the trend kind of miners have flipped and just are continuing to accumulate as much as they can. Yeah, exactly. Just seeing, you know, continued accumulation for them, partially because, you know, we had this record difficulty adjustment. And then the miners that were still left on the network were extremely profitable.

and so they really have an incentive to you know hold the coins that they're getting right now for pretty much uh dirt cheap in comparison to like the energy output that it took to mine them previously got it and then what about uh transactions i know that previously you said uh the number of transactions on the network would be kind of the best supporting evidence for a bearish outlook uh i don't think you me my brothers anyone is uh is bearish that's on this call but uh what what are you seeing there with uh with the transactions yeah for sure um we're starting to see that trend back up like not in a big way um not where i would like to see it yet um but you know it is it is starting to like slowly grind up um one interesting thing though

is like although we've had fewer than like the number of transactions um we've we've seen larger transactions so seeing like really big spikes in in transactions above um 10 million dollars in value so obviously you know those are those are big buyers in the market moving coins around and also like the the fact that we have lower transactions also shows to me that like we're not in this speculative mania phase and we're talking about how you know funding is low and this is pretty spot driven um i think this rally is healthy in that sense um like just the fact that we aren't in any type of euphoria at all um it's mostly just you know like big buyers slowly picking up coins here um yeah so yeah like that's reflected in in the size of the transaction so

transaction volume um and then also when you just look at um whales holdings so like over the last two weeks whales have like added on you know i don't know the number off the top of my head um let me see here i put down 107 107 150 coins um since july 27th um so like what i did was i took all the entities so this these are like forensically clustered addresses um and i took all the entities with more than a thousand bitcoins the reason i did that is like i had been throwing in the newsletter like a thousand to ten thousand or ten thousand to hundred thousand the problem with that is is that sometimes you get um you get these movements from from one cohort to another so like let's say you know you had uh nine thousand nine hundred ninety nine coins

in in this one entity and then i added one more coin well all of a sudden ten thousand coins get added to the, to the 10 to a hundred thousand cohort. So it looks like that cohort accumulated just 10,000 coins. Right. But all it was is someone in the, in the lower cohort under them just added one coin. And so like that got really nuanced trying to filter through that. And I just said, forget it. I'm just going to take all the large entities above a thousand to eliminate that the factor of having those cohorts kind of like move into each other. And so like I did that and then filtered out the uh exchanges obviously grayscale um qbdc um purpose etf and like all the all the major basically on-chain recognizable entities and so you get basically like the raw

balance of like big whales um over a thousand bitcoins and and yeah so you've seen strong accumulation from them as well the last couple weeks and so like pairing that with the fact that we've seen um those large transfers so over over 10 million dollars in in um you know usb value, you know, that's showing that there's some big buyers in the market. I love to hear that. Joe, John, what questions you guys got? Hey, Will, thanks for doing this. I'm pumped for you to get back to school. I'm sure you're excited. So I had a quick question. I saw an interesting tweet from Willy Woo yesterday. I think you retweeted it also, but it was around the supply distribution of Bitcoin. And it was talking about

if we zoom out and we look at the last four to five years, it looks like whales, those who own a thousand or more Bitcoin have dropped off dramatically from a percentage standpoint, maybe around 35, 40%. Now they represent about 25% of the supply. And in the same vein, publicly held entities have increased dramatically and so have minnows, right? Those who own less than 10 Bitcoin. How do you think about supply distribution in general and like its impact on long-term price? Yeah, sure. Great question. Like when you, like you said, when you look at this plotted out what you see is you look at retail compared to overall circulating supply over time the portion that they hold goes up and then whales over time are distributing so you know that that's

a good thing in terms of like the supply distribution it's really healthy because you don't want obviously a lot of supply held in the hands of the few um you know for price purposes mostly because you know large buyers can just dump at will and and they have you know know, stronger control over, over the price, at least in the, in the short term. And so, yeah, like seeing that, seeing that distribution over time, in my opinion, is going to kind of coincide with some kind of stability in price because you have that more even distribution. And so people don't have as much individual effect on the market, I guess. Yeah. And, and I guess, so part of that is obviously from publicly held entities, right?

Which we can go back and forth on whether they should be considered whales or not, But how do you think about their impact on the supply? Right. So they could, I guess, do similar. They could act in a similar nature as whales. But how do you think that they more of them getting involved long term impacts the price? yeah um i guess it kind of depends on the structure right like when you look at grayscale grayscale has just pretty much been a black hole and they've just taken coins in and they haven't moved any i mean they sell some for their two percent fee but you know in general they're just a black hole for coins um but then you have like the purpose etf and you know those coins can move in and out all you know because it's pegged in that so um yeah i guess it just depends on the entity also like you know we're looking at these these um large whale entities but a lot of times

these are representative of a bunch of small buyers so like you know the entities for exchanges right that that um we're looking at these are actually you know holding coins for for tens of millions or in some cases like you'll coinbase hundreds of millions of people and so yeah it's like one entity on the blockchain but when you actually like break that down you know it's way more um small guys that are making up that that one um large entity that's identified on chain so like yeah like there's some limitations to like the accuracy of this completely like in terms of you know we obviously don't know how many retail participants are on exchanges and like the exact so like supply distribution on exchanges so like i think it should just kind of be taken with a

grain of salt i guess this information and just knowing that like we do have that um healthy distribution over time although like the numbers aren't perfectly accurate because of that yeah directionally i think it's a good sign john we got for us yeah well how you doing congrats going back to school i'm good we just congratulating will for going back to school making it to another year um so my question is around like what do you think is most affected the price in like the last week or so is it those large transactions is it the number of users um like what do you think around like where we've been i guess say from the bottom of the bear market yeah um you know i think like like i said most of this has been spot driven um you know

we're seeing limited um you know like funding rates been low um open interest isn't at you know where it was in the you know main phase of the bull market earlier this year um and so like when you also look at just order books in general like coinbase has been bidding really aggressively So seeing a lot of, a lot of buying from them. And then in general, like you said, you know, whale. So, so I think it's a lot of large buyers that have been pushing the price up in general. But like no kind of like speculative, you know, euphoria or anything like that.

I think like this rally is very healthy in that sense. And yeah, it's just been mostly driven by, you know, steady spot buying and people are just slowly moving bids up as you know, they they're kind of getting impatient because his price is just slowly kind of grinding up. And I think like the max pain theory here is like, not that shorts are going to get squeezed, but more so there's a lot of capital on the sidelines that has been watching this thing slowly grind up and they keep thinking they're going to, well,

I'm just assuming that they probably think they're still going to get a good entry. You know, there's a lot of capital still sitting in stable coins, you know, tether, USDC. And so I think like that, That's going to have more of an effect on the upside than any kind of like short squeeze. It's more of like a FOMO squeeze, I guess, because you have all those people just watching this thing slowly grind up. They're slowly, you know, you can see they're slowly, you know, putting their bids up higher and higher. And then, you know, at some point, I think like the impatience kind of takes over. So like I'm watching closely something called the stable coin supply ratio.

and so that's kind of like a good way to gauge um the flow of of stables in and out of the bitcoin market and like what you have been seeing over the last couple weeks is like that that's starting to been you know that's starting to pick up in terms of like how much of the uh those stable coins are starting to flow back into the market so i think like impatience i guess if i could like sum it up i think um that's that's been kind of the driving factor here of like people who wanted to accumulate you know there were really patient buyers throughout that range um you know you saw they would you know slowly wait to to pick up you know around 30k and they you know no rush and i think that kind of resembled these you know bigger more uh mature buyers that they aren't like

rushing into the market um and so you know they had no problem waiting for price to slowly grind back down to like 32 to 28k but now they're starting to realize okay yeah i'm not going to get that i'm not going to get 35 you know so maybe we'll set some bids at 40 and i think like you're going to get this effect that continues over the next couple weeks well before i let you go we got to ask the big question what do you think is uh is price action looking like over the next week or so and then what is uh what's kind of your price thoughts through the rest of this year we're currently sitting around 45 46 47 000 where are we going yeah i think over the next week um it kind of depends like what derivatives look like and so kind of like look at it as as it

comes like if funding just moons all of a sudden like open interest moons then you would probably get a correction there in in the short term um so i don't know it's kind of hard to gauge over the next week i'd say over the next couple weeks higher um looking to kind of reach that 50k as like a pretty important level i think we could potentially set you know theoretically a lower high there but i think like if we get about 50k the the um the uh legitimacy of like a thesis of some kind of dead cat bounce i think really dies down after we get above that that 50k level partially because it's like technical support also because just in general it's a round number right like you know sometimes it's as simple as just looking at like psychological levels in the

market and uh you know round numbers are always just you know the common thing that that price find resistance at so yeah i think like 50k we'll probably retest that in the next couple weeks and then kind of gauging the reaction there um and then also like i built like this this uh on-chain like pricing model and so it looks at um like some of these metrics i didn't build but i just put them all together so it's looking at like the floor that historically for all bitcoin um like in the bottom of the bear market and then also at the top um and then the mean between the two and you're looking at the realized price um anyway i'm probably like boring people to death here but there's there's one uh mid price level that i would be watching it's um right around 57k right

now it's kind of like it's sloping upwards so it's adding a couple hundred dollars a day but i think if we get back above that um then like it would be full confirmation in my mind that that we're going much higher um and then from there if we broke above 57k like um i'd probably be targeting the the uh mean between realized price and the top price so that's like right around 92k right now i'm kind of grinding slowly upwards so okay let's see if we get that confirmation but in the next couple weeks i think we'll be test 50. a follow-on to that is uh i recently was talking to dan held and a couple of guys who really believe in this like super cycle thesis where basically they think hundreds of thousands of dollars of bitcoin by the end of

the year do you buy any of that um it's hard to tell like there's so many factors i i would say though i think like bitcoin moves away from this four-year cycle i i think eventually bitcoin just becomes more free-flowing kind of in correlation to like real rates and and just in general you know the raw supply and demand like i don't think a lot of these like overheated signals for the for the cycles that that i look at i i think they'll all get broken at some point whether it's like this cycle or the next you know obviously like it's impossible to say but i suspect like over time bitcoin will just become more freely traded amongst the just raw you know supply and demand and trade more in in uh tandem with like some of the more macro factors like you know obviously

bitcoin has been majority uh you know retail driven so a lot of stuff hasn't mattered but i think you'll you'll start to move away from like the four-year cycle so yeah like does that happen this time i don't know it's hard to say i guess we'll kind of like get a better uh grasp for that towards the end of the year when we start to see like the kind of uh buyers that that announce i think like you'll probably have some big buyers towards towards the the latter half of the year just because like you know the really strong accumulation we've been seeing and like these people probably aren't going to announce until it makes them look smart to do so like why would they announce when you know price is still at like 40k you know they're going to come

out and announce it like new all-time highs like oh yeah yeah we bought that down there yeah like what do you mean you know they're not going to say it now when it doesn't make them look really smart to do so so i don't know long for short i think it just depends on uh some like the more like extraneous factors that we'll probably get a better grasp on throughout the year and then obviously you know whatever's going on with the with the dollar has a huge impact on bitcoin right like if all of a sudden everybody loses trust in the dollar well then you know that's insanely bullish for Bitcoin. Um, but you know, it's, it's really hard to like, I guess call the timing in terms of like, will that be this cycle or next? Absolutely. Where can people go follow

you on, uh, on Twitter? And, uh, you've got the link to, uh, to the email there that people can subscribe to where you, where you want to send them. Yeah, sure. So, um, my, my Twitter is W Clementi I, I, I, and then, um, you can click on, uh, I just started the, uh, blockware newsletter with them. Um, and that's, you can see the link in my bio and click on that. I would do like the weekly newsletter it's it's the newsletter that i've been doing just rebranded awesome man can we give uh can we give will a little like round of applause as he goes back to school you know listen don't do anything i would do don't get too drunk and uh we'll see you next week man have fun all right appreciate it it'll be a good weekend so i'll touch base at some point let you know

how it's going man but i'm looking forward to proof of life that's what we need we need a little for life this weekend.