The Pomp Podcast - #645 Did The Bears Win This Round?! w/ Will Clemente

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is a finance major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things Bitcoin, including deep dives and various on-chain analytics. You can subscribe to Will's new email newsletter by following him on Twitter. In this conversation, we discuss the Bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, minor accumulation, all-time high in an important metric, and what Will's guess for a bull market top is. I hope that you enjoy this conversation with Will. I really enjoy doing them every single week. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors.

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Starting point is 00:03:37 POMP to get your first trade reimbursed up to a hundred bucks. That's right. If you go to polymarket.co today and you sign up using referral code POMP, they'll reimburse you your entire first trade up to a hundred dollars. Go to the description and you can also click on the link at polymarket.co slash POMP pod as well. Go to polymarket.co, use code POMP. You get reimbursed for that first trade up to a hundred bucks. No brainer. All right, let's get into this episode with Will. I hope you guys enjoy this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a

Starting point is 00:04:18 specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Will, what's up. Hey, guys. Sorry, I have myself muted. What's going on? Not much. How are you? Good, good. First week of class this week, pretty much just syllabus week. So didn't do much, but hanging in there with the school stuff. But other than that, man, interesting week in Bitcoin. So ready to get into it. We're going to get into Bitcoin, but we want a school update first. We saw a tweet where you were in class and they were teaching you about a 60-40 portfolio uh and you were laughing what was going on it was you know i was cringing inside it was tough

Starting point is 00:05:01 uh to sit through that you know learning about uh you know allocating allocating your money to negative yielding bonds isn't really exciting to me uh but you know it is what it is at least i'm enjoying my history class all right let's jump into on-chain metrics first up is we have the total supply held by long-term holders. What's going on here? Yeah. So, you know, last week and following this week, we've reached new all-time highs in the amount of Bitcoin that long-term holders possess, you know, which is obviously a really good sign because long-term holders historically kind of set the floor. You know, when you look at this as just a percentage of circulating supply, it's about 68%, 67.7, if you want to be exact. And then when you use,

Starting point is 00:05:46 instead of circulating supplies, the denominator, if you use adjusted supply, which is factoring out lost coins. And so just for listeners, Glassnode just uses a seven-year threshold. So over that, they consider those coins lost. And so using that as the denominator, you're looking at 84.5% of adjusted supply. But yeah, so point is, long-term holders are buying like crazy here um not only that but they're also um we're also seeing short-term holders aging past that uh that 155 day threshold and that's that's shown by by hodl waves so what you see is that um and the the smaller portions the younger portions of of coins so you know when you look at um below six months those are going down while you're starting to see a larger portion

Starting point is 00:06:35 go into those three to six month, six to 12 month, one to two year cohorts. So you're starting to see not only just long-term holders buying here, but also the investors, the entities that came on the network three to six months ago are now starting to age into that long-term cohort. So the combination of both of those things is why you're seeing this new all-time high. Got it. And so when we start thinking about the short-term holder, long-term holder percentage, we're seeing basically the exact same thing right i'm sorry what'd you say they kind of cut off there dude the short-term holder long-term holder percentage is basically the exact same thing yeah exactly it's just um you know looking at the the percentage of supply held by by long-term holders both in terms of

Starting point is 00:07:19 circulating supply and the adjusted supply all right and so we've got the realized cap huddle waves explain to everyone what this is and then what are you seeing in the actual numbers Yeah, this is just illustrating that not only is it long-term holders that are buying that's contributing to the increase in their supply, but also cohorts that are aging into that 155-day threshold. And so you can see that here with the HODL waves that the smaller, or I should say younger cohorts are going down while the older ones are moving up. So you're seeing the aging of those coins into the upper threshold. So, for example, a coin in the one-week to one-month threshold has not moved, so now it's moving into the one-month to three-month and et cetera. So, you're starting to see strong maturation, which is a good sign. People are coming on the network, buying their coins, and holding them strong.

Starting point is 00:08:09 Spent output age bands. Yeah, this is just looking at different cohorts of age and the percentage of outputs that came from that specific cohort, if that makes sense. So what I have been looking for is, you know, are these long-term holders taking exit liquidity? That would be concerning to me. And we did actually get a spike up to like 18.75%. You know, that seems to kind of have been a one-off thing. And that spike was really in three to five-year holders and two to three years as well. But since then, that's cooled off now that, you know, we're back down to 3.4% as of yesterday.

Starting point is 00:08:49 So it seems like so far that that was just, you know, a one off thing that some of these longer term holders were briefly taking profits. But just watching this closely to see if, you know, if this kind of becomes a trend. On Tuesday, I sent out a newsletter and basically just said, hey, look, you know, I'm feeling kind of cautious here when we had this, you know, failed breakout above 50K kind of rejected there. That in confluence with seeing some coins coming out to exchanges, a drop in a liquid supply, and then also some of this selling from longer-term holders kind of taking profits into the rally, which isn't completely unexpected. I was kind of suspecting we saw some short-term price correction, and we did go down to about whatever, $4,600, $3,000, but it seems like we kind of found a local bottom there. I tweeted something about that yesterday, but now today it seems like Jay Powell has kind of given us the juice to maybe start heading back upwards. We're also seeing a tick back up in both the exchange flows.

Starting point is 00:09:50 So coins are moving back out of exchanges again. And then also the liquid supply has moved back up. So kind of the concerns that I had there in the letter I sent out Tuesday have kind of been alleviated. The entity-adjusted ASOL seems to be showing a pretty rapid recovery as well the last couple of days. Yeah, this is very similar to the spin output age bands. It's looking at, once again, like the average age of the coins being sold. And so what you don't want to see here is what, you know, if you look back at late 2017, early 2018,

Starting point is 00:10:24 you see that big spike after all-time highs when we started. It's a little off because it's a moving average, but that spike really came on the dead cat bounce, which is actually a little bit to the right in the chart uh but point is you know once again you don't want to see everybody jump ship it's not you know it's completely expected to see people taking profits on the move up um but you know don't want to see everyone just sell out at once and so you know you'll see all the way on the right hand of the screen we're starting to get this move back up in asol but uh you know kind of just monitoring this day-to-day want to make sure we don't see any massive move up in that to that would tell me that you know everybody is abandoning

Starting point is 00:10:59 kind of like late 2017. Got it. And so then when we start to look at things like the futures dominance, obviously this shows how much kind of leverage is in the system or is one indicator of that. Explain what you're seeing here. Yeah. So most people like to look at funding to say, okay, you know, funding is positive. So price has to go down. Funding's negative. So price has to go up. Like, I think there's a, there's a little bit more nuance than that. So like funding is slightly positive which in theory you know when you have prolonged positive funding that tends to be a bearish thing when you have prolonged negative funding that tends to be a bullish thing um but that doesn't necessarily mean every time funding is positive price is going to go down or

Starting point is 00:11:40 vice versa you know we had like six months of prolonged positive funding uh towards the you know late last year early this year um you know there's several things here to kind of unpack like firstly funding is although it is slightly positive it's nowhere near where it was earlier this year at similar price levels. Also, you know, when you look at what you just mentioned about the open interest dominance, this is just comparing open interest to market cap and just taking like a basic ratio of that. And so when open interest really is insignificant compared to market cap, the odds of futures having a real effect on the price is lower. Not to say that it's impossible that we get a squeeze, but I think the chances are a lot lower than many

Starting point is 00:12:21 people are saying. Um, also that the red line that, that in the chart you just had popped up, that's the, uh, the leverage ratio. So it's just looking at open interest compared to, um, how many coins are on that specific exchange to kind of get a ballpark as to like how collateralized traders are. Uh, both of these things are still kind of mild. So, um, I don't think we get any crazy, you know, uh, short or long squeezes. Got it. And then when we start to actually go into like net realized profit loss or a realized profit realized loss. Um, you've got this kind of four part chart. Uh, what exactly are you looking at here? What are you seeing? Yeah. So in the top left, you have the net realized profit loss. So the difference between the two, um, on the right

Starting point is 00:13:03 and the top, right, you've realized profits, bottom left realized losses. And then bottom right is the percent of dresses that are in profit. So, um, what I'm looking for is, you know, like we touched on earlier it's to be expected that you're going to see profits taken on the way up that's what happens in bull markets long-term rollers distribute into strength um but what i don't want to see is is the overhead supply start to come onto the market um and so you know we had this really large distribution zone between 50 60k and we chopped around for whatever two three months before we moved started moving down um and what you don't want to see is that overhead supply start to come onto the market and add in additional sell pressure so i'm watching

Starting point is 00:13:43 realized losses to see if those coins from above are starting to move down here, which doesn't seem to be the case. It seems to be mostly just realized profits, which is a good sign. Also, the percentage of addresses and profit is kind of important because, you know, the longer that the market stays below people's cost basis, the more likely they are to capitulate in theory. So the fact that we've gotten up from 69% at the lows to 86% of addresses now in profit is a really good sign um yeah i'd like to see continuation of that and then like kind of on a similar note looking at sober this is once again looking at the profit taking of coins um or back above the one threshold which means the market's trading in a state of profit which is once again a really

Starting point is 00:14:26 good thing um and so this is the weekly version that i threw in the newsletter but also if you look at the daily version um we got a bounce off of one uh whatever two days ago when we had this little mini correction uh which is a good sign because it's showing that uh investors aren't willing to sell at a loss. So kind of using those things in tandem, but SOPR is a good gauge to say, okay, like our, our investors, um, you know, are, are market participants willing to start selling at a loss? Do they want to get out of the market that bad? It doesn't seem like that so far because of the, we've gotten a balance off of one twice over the last two weeks. Got it. And then when you start to look at the transaction, uh, volumes, I know that at one

Starting point is 00:15:02 point you were a little worried because it seems like the number of transactions was, uh, trending downward it seems like those are recovering um like slightly but i'm still a little concerned about it because it's it's pretty much just ghost town and we've gotten off the lows that we were at like you know last month but when you look at like the transaction fees which is a good uh kind of proxy for like uh you know block space demand that s continues to move down the number of transactions and also the active addresses that this kind of moved up a little bit but still nothing that, you know, the way I worded in the newsletter was we've had a big swing in price, but no ding yet in transaction activity. So I want to see some follow through

Starting point is 00:15:43 on that. Some people have been saying that it's because of all that, you know, all small transactions are moving to Lightning Network, which is possible, but, you know, I think there's no real way to exactly quantify that. So it's hard to say. And then also we are seeing really strong hodling behavior. So, you know, it could partially have something to do with that. People just don't want to transact their BTC. And we're just seeing people, you know, buying and holding their coins. Like when you think about the network, do you think of, you know, this is just a rhetorical question for listeners. Do you think of usage of the network as transactional activity, or do you think of it as hodling? Right. I guess some people have different answers. Some people

Starting point is 00:16:22 say it's a combination of both. I personally think the Bitcoin networks, you know, considering usage of it would be hodling. And if you think of it that way, you're seeing usage of the network at all-time highs. But if you are considering it using transactional information, then we are kind of in this kind of stalemate ghost town where it is a bit concerning to see and something you definitely kind of want to see pick up over the next couple of weeks if we get more price continuation. Makes sense. Exchange net position change, basically how much Bitcoin's on the exchanges versus not what are you seeing yeah so we got another little dashboard four chart thing here uh top left like you said is the net position change so looking at the 30-day change between a

Starting point is 00:17:03 month ago today and now uh top right is just a raw balance on exchanges bottom left is a balance on coinbase bottom right is balance on finance and so what you see is that um exchange flows had gone kind of flat uh and then the newsletter last week um and the one i set out tuesday was suggesting caution was when we had started to see net inflows to exchanges um which once again suggested that people had started to take profits on the rally um and then about two days ago we saw this down draw in in balance exchanges again and looking at the individual different exchanges uh it looks like that that's coming from coinbase so you'll see in bottom left that drawdown in coinbase's balance um i think it's roughly 30 000 coins but don't quote me on the exact number

Starting point is 00:17:46 uh bottom right is finance and what you see is that finance uh continues to increase in terms of how many coins are on the exchange so uh you know you're seeing it what looks like selling from from the east and then buying in the west or also some people could could consider this kind of a way to gauge like you know people are moving coins onto binance for speculative purposes because binance has leverage and all kinds of uh you know products that you can get you know speculative leverage on anything. So you can see it that way as well. But generally, like when you see a lot of selling in Asian hours and then buying in like the early morning Eastern hour. So I think that's probably more of the explanation, but that's just kind of a theory. Got it. And then when you look

Starting point is 00:18:31 at minor profitability as the last thing here, what are you seeing on that? Yeah. So, you know, we just had this difficulty adjustment. And so when you have more hash coming on the network, which by the way is slowly recovering um nowhere near where it was a few months ago but you know it's it's it's been uh recovering you know slowly grinding up and when you have a when you have a difficulty adjustment uh the miners that are still you know that are on the network uh they become less profitable um so so what you see is in in this uh green line that that's the revenue in bitcoin terms per hash and so after the difficulty adjustment uh whatever two days ago um you saw a drop down in that but yeah hash is coming back up which is a good sign as well got it and so like

Starting point is 00:19:13 this you know it makes sense why miners have been holding their coins because they've been more profitable lately right uh and so i'm curious if maybe we start to see a little bit of miners trimming their holdings because they'll be less profitable over the coming weeks but they still are way more profitable than they were even two months ago but you know as as that hash starts to come back on you know the the miners are competing more so for the same amount of block reward, then you're going to see that the revenue per hash go down. If you had to kind of summarize how you're feeling right now, bearish, neutral, bullish, how do you think of yourself right now? Yeah, I'm leaning kind of neutral to bullish because we had an uptick in the liquid supply

Starting point is 00:19:54 shock ratio. And then also, like I mentioned, some of those coins moving back off of Coinbase, which sometimes it can take a few days for their heuristics to update. So it wouldn't be like 100 solidified on that but over the next couple days we'll get confirmation to see if it sticks or if you know that trend continues but as of right now i'm leaning you know at least short term uh bullish for sure uh just the only thing that's really concerning me is is the transactional activity um you know it is it is really low relative to what you usually see in a bull market but some people say perhaps you know that's just like a um you know a following factor a um you know, you see the price increase and then the transactional activity follows. But we didn't

Starting point is 00:20:35 just have a big move over the last couple of weeks. So I would be expecting, you know, more follow through in that. So something definitely to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks. Got it. Joe, John, you guys got any questions? Yeah, I guess. Well, my question would be around just some of the metrics that you look at. Right. And I think most people expect kind of based off of your evidence that you presented on chain and some of the other stuff going around that the price is going to appreciate here over the next few months. Some people think more rapidly than others, but I think everyone kind of generally understands that's invested, it's going to appreciate. Do the metrics change? And like, what metrics do you look at as we start

Starting point is 00:21:11 accelerating? And as we start getting the price starts accelerating towards 100 and all these other numbers? Do those change? Or do you look at the same metrics? No, yeah, it's a great question. Like, the way I think about it is, you know, on chain is just a toolbox. And so, you know, for different circumstances, you use different metrics. You know, for example, like, you know, two months ago, I was looking really heavily at what miners were doing because of the Chinese miner migration and we had really low volume. So, you know, it didn't take as much self-pressure to move the market at the time.

Starting point is 00:21:41 So seeing some of that self-pressure for miners, in my opinion, contributed to some of the downward price pressure that we had. So like, you know, when we get back into a raging bull market, I'm not going to be looking at what miners are doing as much because that, that that sell pressure pretty much just becomes insignificant compared to even like the exchange fees that are being sold onto the market although uh brian armstrong uh did say they're going to put 10 of their their profits into into buying crypto so that's a good thing um but anyway yeah i would be looking for um you know what's going on in the futures market i think like for short-term price

Starting point is 00:22:15 movements that'll become uh more prevalent as we probably move up for now i think like the futures market is probably just just remaining cautious until we get that you know uh a solidified move perhaps over 50k or over like the one trillion dollar threshold or whatever these traders are looking at but for now it looks like the market's mostly spot driven as we kind of looked at like oi dominance so that would be one of the things i'd be looking at as leverage starts to come back in if we get a price move up uh because that'll that'll play a bigger role in kind of the market structure john will did you say 85 of the coins are held by whales or bigger entities um yeah so 80 it's 84 and a half uh i just have to be a smart ass uh because of uh when you're looking

Starting point is 00:23:03 at the adjusted supply but when you're just looking at circulating supply it's 67.7 um but either way you want to cut it i mean they they the long-term holders own a very large portion of supply. When you're talking about whales, that's another interesting conversation. When you plot this out over time, what you see is that whales distribute their coins throughout Bitcoin's history, while retail as a percentage of overall supply increased their holdings. And so if you had some theoretical Gini coefficient for Bitcoin, it would be moving in a positive direction because you're having that healthy supply distribution over time. Will, where are we going, man? What do you think happens to the rest of the year? Are you still pretty bullish on a much, much higher

Starting point is 00:23:41 price yeah i'm i'm still uh after this after the data updated last night um i'm no longer you know short-term bearish i'm leaning more neutral to bullish over the next week or two um you know technicals it looks like we're perhaps setting up for a volatility squeeze here and in that kind of same time frame as well so um you know looking for that in the short term in the midterm you know i still think we need to get over uh whatever 50k or the trillion dollar threshold um that that gives the capital on the sidelines kind of that confirmation um and then like from a non-chain perspective i've talked about like some of my top and bottom price models um the the kind of bull market uh threshold that i'm looking at is right around 60k so if we did

Starting point is 00:24:24 get up there probably line up right around when we theoretically break all-time highs because it's slowly trending up uh but if we were to get over that then i would be targeting you know whatever the the next uh part of the model so i think it's like a 95 95 k so yeah in the short term though like uh watching some of those things we touched on earlier um you know it's with with this data you kind of just have to take it day to day and watch how it's coming in um it's you know once again uh kind of hard to to predict several months out but i think just anecdotally hearing some of these things from from people that i know who have some you know connections in the space and the capital that's supposedly coming in towards towards the latter half of the year and just kind

Starting point is 00:25:06 of the seasonality of bitcoin i think i think we're still kind of set up for for more upside here um you know something we've touched on many times with broader metrics uh just never really reached any kind of overheated uh euphoric zone um kind of resembles a lot of stuff in 2013 where you kind of ran up about halfway and then came back down and and then went up and reached those kind of euphoric, you know, blow it off top levels in some of these macro metrics. So watching some of those things. Also, one other thing we didn't touch on, which is just kind of a side note, the percentage of futures that are margined by stable coins versus Bitcoin. So like this has been an interesting trend that you've seen since May 19th, where now you're seeing a

Starting point is 00:25:52 lot of traders preferring to use stable coins as margin instead of Bitcoin, which kind of makes sense because a lot of traders got wrecked on May 19th and it seems like now they're being a bit more cautious. If you just think about it, if your margin with Bitcoin, when the price starts going up, well, not only is the price of the asset that you're betting on going up, but also the margin. So if you're betting that Bitcoin is going to go up, your long Bitcoin and your margin with Bitcoin, well, Bitcoin's price is going up. So your P&L is going up, but also the margin of that position is going up so it creates kind of this reflexivity up uh but then also on the way back down um you know it can be bad because your your collateral is going down in value i mean in tandem with your

Starting point is 00:26:36 with your pnl so it can kind of create this convexity on the way down and kind of accelerate moves down and that's kind of i suspect played a role in in that drawdown that we had in early may so the the good part of seeing uh you know these stable coin margin futures is is in theory um They're more susceptible to getting squeezed. Shorts are more susceptible to getting squeezed because, right, like if you're short and you're margin with Bitcoin and the price starts to go up, yeah, like the trade is going against you, but also your collateral is increasing, right? Because you're margin with Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin is going up.

Starting point is 00:27:10 So the fact that they're margin with stable coins takes away that kind of like double dipping you get where if you're short, you know, and the trade starts to go against you, you're still, uh, you know, you're still benefiting partially because your collateral is going up. So you're not as, as, uh, suspected to getting squeezed. Um, so yeah, like, I think, I think, I think seeing like an increase in stable coin margin futures, um, is, is somewhat bullish in theory because you have people that are more susceptible to getting squeezed than normal. If that makes sense. It makes a ton of sense. And I think this all goes back to like the on-chain metrics don't lie. And also what's really fascinating is you saw some metrics change,

Starting point is 00:27:51 But you actually waited a couple of days to understand how they were going to play out. And so it's not something that you can necessarily trade on immediately because you could get faked out by kind of the real time nature of it. But if you understand the right cadence of how to internalize this stuff, synthesize it, allow for enough time to really have confirmation in a trend change or not, then you're able to apply this stuff and understand where we are in cycles, both in the short and long term. Yeah. A hundred percent. Like if you're using like exchange flows and you're tracking that intraday, like you're going to drive yourself crazy. Well, you know, the heuristics they're not perfect. Right. So sometimes it takes a few days for them to update. And, um, you know, I think if you're using this stuff on like some kind of like you're day trading off of it, I mean, you're just kind of setting yourself up to get wrecked. Uh, like you just said, it's, it's best

Starting point is 00:28:36 used, you know, over a week to two week kind of timeframe. Um, and, and, you know, especially with the exchange balance stuff and some of the some of the entity labeling um you need to wait at least a few days to kind of wait for that stuff to update and also see if it's a trend um because you can drive yourself crazy one day you know the exchange balances go down the next day it updates and it's up so that's like you need to wait at least towards the end of the week you know see is there a trend like you know when i sent it when i sent out the letter tuesday that exchange flows were in what were increasing that was like a week-long trend that they had been moving up so i felt confident in putting that out but you know like this this uptick i mean

Starting point is 00:29:14 this downtick in exchange balances from coinbase yesterday um i'm still not fully confident in that and that's why i'm like a little bit hesitant to be bullish although like the data in itself like the downtick in exchange flows and the uptick in liquid supply ratio that is bullish but i'm waiting a day or two like you know to kind of see if those heuristics kind of filter some of that out but uh but yeah like definitely needs to be used in cadence like you said got it uh when you start to think about uh this weekend forget bitcoin for a second we are we are we partying this weekend what's going on with uh school yeah bro it's it's syllabus week so no one no one's been doing any school stuff this week i'm sure everybody's ready to have some fun but uh stay

Starting point is 00:29:56 safe out there hopefully nobody uh gets covid but you know aside from that i'm i'm ready to have some fun this weekend let's go we'll go we'll back in college i love it i love it man all right listen thank you so much for doing this uh what is twitter where do we want to send people and then they can find the newsletter uh in your twitter bio yeah sure thanks for plugging me in as always man um i'm on twitter at w clemente i i i i'm at 199.1 so if you guys could pump me over 200 wait wait wait wait you're you're right now at 199 yeah oh hold on a second hold on hold on hold on you gotta get me right this is what we're gonna do right now ready so i just put in the chat everyone his twitter account go follow him and then let's do this ready i'm going to man i can't

Starting point is 00:30:48 believe I just got tricked into doing this, but are you ready? The young on-chain wizard Will Clemente is at 199,000 followers. Bet you all can't push him over 200k before the end of the day let's see is this gonna work go follow at will clemente all right let's see i just tweeted it i didn't even spell check or anything so if i spelled anything wrong whatever appreciate you man let's see what happens well if you get to 200k then the next stop is a million so perfect you'll be ready to rock and roll um all right there's one thing you taught me, Pump, that's to think big.

Starting point is 00:31:40 Keep going, man. You're doing a great job. All right. We'll see if we can get you over 200K before the end of the day and I appreciate you coming on. We'll see you on next Friday.

Starting point is 00:31:50 Don't have too much fun this weekend. Yes, sir. I'll do my best and you guys take it easy. Thanks for having me on. Thanks, Will. All right.

Starting point is 00:31:57 See you, buddy. See you, guys. Cheers.

The Pomp Podcast - #645 Did The Bears Win This Round?! w/ Will Clemente

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