The Pomp Podcast - #666 Investing in the Future Crypto World with Kyle Samani

Episode Date: September 20, 2021

Kyle Samani is a Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Multicoin Capital, a thesis-driven investment firm with a global footprint that invests exclusively in the crypto ecosystem. Multicoin Capital manages several billion in assets across hedge funds and venture funds.  In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, crypto investment thesis, and how Kyle sees the future unfolding in crypto.  ======================= Choice is a new self-directed IRA product that I'm really excited about. If you are listening to this, you are likely part of the 7.1 million bitcoin owners who have retirement accounts with dollars in them, but not bitcoin. I was in that situation too. Now you can actually buy real Bitcoin in your retirement account. I'm talking about owning your private keys and using tax-advantaged dollars to do it too. Absolute game changer. https://www.retirewithchoice.com/pomp ======================= Not too many people know this, but thousands of investors are flocking to a new asset class. They are strategically allocating to this stable, yet high-performing alternative to offset the volatility of their holdings, which is a pretty smart move. So what am I talking about? Spoiler Alert: it’s Contemporary Art. Lots of investors are bullish on art for three main reasons. One, Contemporary art outperformed the S&P 500, gold, and real estate by nearly 174% from 1995-2020. Two, stability: there’s almost no correlation to public equities according to research by Citi. Three: it’s the perfect fit alongside crypto investments in portfolios.    I even partnered with the only platform that lets you invest in contemporary art to give you all a head start. Visit masterworks.io/pomp to get priority access today.   Paid advertisement. See important disclosures at masterworks.io/disclaimer

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They've got a really long wait list, But if you go through that specific link, masterworks.io slash Pomp, you'll skip the entire wait list. So go to masterworks.io slash Pomp and get started today. All right, let's get this episode with Kyle. I hope you guys enjoy this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect

the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Kyle, what's up, man? What's up? What's up, Bob? How are you? I'm doing fantastic. You back in the US now? I'm back at home in Austin.

All right. Let's get started with the multi-coin investment thesis to begin with. What is kind of the way that you describe it to folks in terms of where you guys are investing in the ecosystem? Yeah. So we have three mega theses that guide our investments. One is what we call open finance, which is a superset of DeFi. Two is Web3, which is relatively broad. And three is the opportunity for non-sovereign money. I've been spending most of my time recently in the Web3 bucket, looking at new ways to build incentive systems to get people to do stuff in the real world. So Helium is the best example of this, which we invested in a couple of years ago. But as this blockchain infrastructure matures, I think we're going to see a lot of entrepreneurs say, hey, we can hand out tokens to people, incentivize them to perform some behaviors, and kind of create new kinds of markets that couldn't exist before.

We just did two deals that we haven't announced yet that kind of fit that bucket. And I'm thinking there's going to be like hundreds more of these over the next few years. I'm pretty pumped about it. Describe a little bit about how Helium works as one example. And then maybe you can also talk a little bit about this whole idea of like play to earn as another example of changing, you know, kind of human behavior based on economic incentives. Yeah, happy to dive into this. So Helium is a new business model for deploying and managing wireless networks. So think about wireless networks today.

If you're Verizon or AT&T or whatever, you want to build a network, you go figure out where you want to put towers. You call up the people who own the land. You rent the land from them. you hire a bunch of guys to drive around with hard hats, install a bunch of towers, run a bunch of backhaul. And then obviously you have to have ongoing maintenance over that. Extremely capital intensive. One of the most capital intensive businesses in the world. The only way to finance that is to take on a huge amount of debt. And the only way to get debt providers to guarantee that financing is you need to lock your customers into two-year

contracts. So you have guaranteed revenue. And so this entire model is very, very top down from both the financing and from the capex and deployment. Helium is basically the exact opposite of that. In Helium, the idea is anyone who wants to provide wireless coverage in their area can buy a hotspot, which is about yay big. They can plug it into the electricity in their home or their small business.

They plug it in the Ethernet cable, and there's an antenna on the back, and that provides wireless coverage. And any device walking around nearby can pay per byte of data to the hotspot host for providing coverage in that local area. But the beautiful thing about this model is you literally take out like 98% or 99%

of the cost of the system. Land cost goes to zero. Labor cost goes to zero. Running backhaul cost goes to zero because you're just leveraging the internet connection that's in the person's home or small business. You literally remove costs from the system. And then you also just make it,

if there's poor coverage somewhere, you get people in and say, just put up a hotspot and get the coverage, you know, instead of depending on the Verizon or the AT&T gods to try and provide that for you. And so it's much more resilient. It naturally responds to economic incentives. And it's just like it's obviously kind of like the right way to build a network. So the Helium Network launched in 2019. Today, there's 170,000 hotspots all over the world. And there's another, I think, six or 700,000 hotspots that have been ordered, but not yet shipped.

And the cool thing is, is these hotspots mine tokens. They mine a token called HNT, kind of similar to Bitcoin mining. And then if you want to use the network, you have to basically buy HNT tokens and burn them. And so HNT, we really modeled it kind of after oil, where like oil comes out of the ground. If you want to use oil, you put it in your car, you literally light it on fire. Same basic kind of idea here with HNT. When you think of that model, that is a way to change the economic kind of structure of wireless networks. this play to earn i think people are very interested in because it changed the way that

people thought about working it's changed the human behavior how do you guys think about that have you made any investments there uh we have not made any investments in things that i would call play to earn the idea of play to earn is pretty straightforward it's pay people to do stuff um that was invented 5 000 years ago and like helium is paying people to do stuff in the case of helium it's build a wireless network in the case of axi for example it's some buttons on the screen right but that's kind of the core idea um the real question is going to be as you build larger and larger online worlds things that look like world of warcraft eve online as kind of older examples but then more recently things like star atlas and fortnite the question

is going to be you know are there opportunities to have real economies in those games and then if so there's going to need to be some notion of kind of extracting resources out of the ground obviously this is virtual ground or virtual space as opposed to the physical space but like that's going to be there. And if that's there, then you should see, just like today, there are people who are farmers and people who work on oil rigs and whatever, you should see kind of equivalent types of concepts and ideas in this virtual environment. And the opportunity to make money will be mining those resources or pulling them out of the ground, so to speak, and then selling them to people who want to use them in some productive way within the context of whatever virtual economy that is.

Talk to us about Solana. Maybe you can describe first what it is, and then we can go through the the investment you guys made so solana's blockchain um founded in early 2018 uh we're the largest investors in it it launched the blockchain launched in march of last year um tokenless on binance in april of last year uh today i think it's number six or number seven on the coin market cap we solana is um a smart contract blockchain so it performs for contracts um it is a pretty radically different in the design than ethereum and across a number of dimensions um how the system routes data around, how it executes transactions, the programming languages. It's a very different take on a blockchain than Ethereum or Bitcoin, where Ethereum is kind of

like Bitcoin's cousin in a lot of ways. Solana is just like a totally different animal. And the Solana team from inception, their number one priority was always make the system go as fast as possible. Reduce the block times to be as quick as you can. Now, given the speed of light and the amount of time it takes to go around the world, you can get that down to maybe 200 milliseconds if you're lucky. Today, Solana is at about 400 milliseconds. And then enable it to execute transactions as fast as humanly possible. So leverage parallel transaction processing on modern GPUs, which have called 4,000 cores to execute as many transactions as quickly as possible. And Solana was designed from the ground up to do that as efficiently as it can. And today,

there's a thriving ecosystem building all kinds of stuff on Solana. There's DeFi, there's tons tons of social tokens. There's tons of NFTs. There's two kinds of games. There's just a whole huge amount of stuff all happening on Solana. Fees are super cheap. Fraction of the penny, it's not a transaction. Transactions confirm within a second or two. It's a really magical experience to use. Talk to us about when you met the team and the initial investment that you guys made. Yeah, I met Anatoly and Raj. We're the two primary co-founders in April of 2018 and invested shortly thereafter. The original slide deck for Solana, the title slide, if you look at it, actually said NASDAQ for blockchain. Anatoly, who's the founder and CEO of Solana Labs and the

chief architect of the system, his vision from day one was, I want to run a central limit order book on the blockchain. He did not at the time, I think, have a conceptualization of modern DeFi and all of the interesting things happening there. He understood that this was going to be useful for finance things. And he said, okay, you need to have an order book to run an exchange. And he designed to build, you know, the world's largest, fastest decentralized order book engine. And Solana was that. That was his vision from day one. And, you know, I was very fortunate the blockchain launched in March or April of last year. And Sam from FTX, like a month or two later, was really excited about DeFi and was like, can't build on Ethereum, never going to do what I wanted

to do. Sam really, really, really wanted to build an order book. And Solana provided him the foundation needed to build an order book. And so that turned into Serum. And Serum is now probably the most widely used piece of infrastructure for Solana-based DeFi applications. What was the initial investment that you made? Because I think from what I understand, this is probably one of the best venture investments in at least recent history. Walk us through kind of the dynamics of the investment and how you think about it in hindsight. Yeah. So Solana raised money in May or so of that year. They raised of 18. They raised another round in maybe August or September. Then we went into crypto winter after the November crash in 2018.

We ended up buying out a lot of other investors who got cold feet after that crash. They did one more private round in June of 2019, which we led. We led all three of those rounds. And then they did a coin list sale in March of 2020, right as the blockchain launched. And the token has been trading freely since then. The token launched at, call it, $0.40 or $0.50. The last private round was at $0.22, if I recall correctly. I think today it's at 150 or 160.

In terms of dynamics of the round, I mean, at the time, a lot of people didn't like Solana. Solana was a very, I'd say, not popular bet among the crypto crowd because it didn't feel like the other blockchains. It made a different set of tradeoffs. And, you know, Anatoly was very, very focused on speed and performance and much less focused on like cryptography and academics and economics. And so it felt very weird, I think, to most crypto people. um that's exactly what kind of drew us drew us to what he was doing was a the clarity of the vision he said i want to build a central order book on a blockchain um we didn't know if it was possible or not i was actually kind of skeptical it could get done but it got done um and you know he had

the exact right background to build what he's built what was the cheapest price you ever bought the token at was it at that 20 cents or something lower than that uh there was the very first round was at $0.04. So when you think about that, is this kind of the, I think one of the big thesis that you all have had is like, is venture capital like returns with kind of shorter timeframes to liquidity? Is this kind of a prime example of what you think the opportunity is outside of kind of Bitcoin or like the blue chip type assets in the space? Yeah. I mean, I don't think there's going to be another Solana. I'm not accounting on it happening in my career. I would love it if it happens again, but I'm not expecting it to happen. And it's just a very weird set of

kind of historical circumstances that led the market as a whole to neglect this asset for such a long period of time. And only recently has the market kind of come around to appreciating it for what it is. But I think Solana today is pretty close to blue chip within crypto. I mean, it's number six or number seven on CoinMarketCap. So it's pretty high up there. The opportunity from here is the question is, what's the upside? Is it at its peak? And the primary way to think about Solana is relative to ETH. Today, the market cap of Sol is 12% or 13% of Ethereum's, or thereabouts. And obviously, the bears will say it should be 1%. The bulls will say it should be equal to Ethereum. I mean, you have to kind of render your own judgment of how this thing is going to stack

up and rank. I would say six months ago, it was still extremely non-consensus to acknowledge that something was going to give Ethereum a run for its money. Today, I think there are, I think a lot of intellectual capital within crypto believes Solana is going to coexist with Ethereum. Will it displace Ethereum? I don't know. I think that's actually pretty improbable. There's so much inertia around the Ethereum ecosystem. I don't think that can be displaced. It's very clear that this thing is going to coexist. Solana today is growing at an extremely rapid pace. Users being onboarded assets being issued, stable coins going into it. All of these things, look at the last 90 days, it's just vertical line from call it a billion in assets to like 10 billion.

You on your initial investment are up 3,750 X, give or take, which is pretty incredible. I see your smile, which means that you've thought of that before. Talk to us about how you think about price movements today. So Solana ran all the way up to $200, $210. Then it crashed down to $140, 150. It's almost hilarious to call it crash because it was at like two or three bucks at the beginning of the year. How do you think about price volatility as a new network like this ends up getting repriced by the market? Yeah. So we are not a trading firm and I generally try and ignore prices to the best of my ability. I never actually open CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. I see prices as I scroll through Twitter, but if it weren't for that, I wouldn't know what the prices

are um we don't kind of make uh we're under judgment on short term medium term price movements our time horizon is measured in years not not weeks or months so the question we want to ask ourselves is you know is this network compounding at a sufficiently fast rate and if you really go dig into developer activity user onboarding dollar flow in the system um all of those things right now are compounding at an astounding rate and i don't think that's going to slow down In fact, I can make pretty good arguments for why it's going to accelerate. Does that mean Solana can't go down from here? No, dude, we can wake up tomorrow, it could be 50 bucks.

You know, that's on the table. Like, this is crypto, you know, that just kind of happens. But we're super bullish, Sol, and yeah, we're riding this thing out. Talk to me about how you think of the market structure right now. There's a lot of people who think through the end of the year, Bitcoin and Ether, along with all the other assets, have kind of a big move upwards to kind of end the bull market or capture the full potential of a bull market. Do you all have any perspective on, you know, Bitcoin through the end of the year or Ether, whether from a price standpoint or any sort of kind of outlook there?

We don't have a real outlook on the price of BTC USD or ETH USD, not where we spend our time and energy. I can tell you that, you know, we continue to get a lot of phone calls from a lot of extremely sophisticated, large pools of capital all over the world. You know, those phone calls haven't slowed down this year, even to kind of the dip in May, June, they didn't slow down and they're not slowing down now. So I'd say I'm pretty optimistic that a substantial amount of net new capital is going to continue to flow into the system. Will that be enough to keep BTC or ETH where it is? I honestly have no idea. I'd say I'm actually much more bullish smaller cap coins than I am BTC and ETH specifically, because those assets that have fundamentals, that have valuation model, and that aren't as large as BTC and ETH, I think through this next, whenever the market turns as a whole, I believe we're going to see a very large dispersion of returns. And the 2018 kind of bear cycle, Bitcoin was down 80 and

everything was down 90% plus. I do not think we're going to see anything remotely close to that happen this time around because the assets are understood. They are working. There are people who are being onboarded and using these things every day. And you're going to see a pretty large dispersion of returns among high quality assets. When you think about either your own personal investing or the fund, how do you guys think of portfolio construction between, again, maybe let's call it top 10 coins, ex Solana, because Solana kind of moved up there recently. But what most people would think of as the legacy blue chip assets versus all the other stuff, do you have kind of a framework as to how you guys allocate capital? We have no rules on that. We do own a

little bit of Bitcoin in the far hedge fund, not much, like three or 4% or something. We own more ETH than that, but it's not a huge position. Then we own a large position in Seoul. I don't believe we own anything else in the top 10. Yeah, probably not. And we have pretty concentrated positions in a handful of high quality names of investments that we have extremely convicted on thesis. These positions, I think all of them we've been holding for 12 months plus and continue holding them. Our goal is to focus on absolute app performance. We're trying to maximize returns. We're not adjusting for vol and, uh, our, our holding assets that we think are going to just change, you know, certain segments of whatever, uh, they, they, they try

and do, whether it's helium or Solana or something else. I got two of my brothers here with me. What questions you guys got? Hey, Kyle, thanks for doing this. Uh, how you doing? Good to meet the whole fam. Good to meet you too, man. Uh, I'm, uh, I'm quite jealous of your investment return on Solana, but it's good to meet you. So my question is around Solana. You mentioned previously that people were not very comfortable with Solana at first. They didn't think it looked or felt like a normal blockchain. That's obviously changed over the last six, 12 months, et cetera. What do you think, if any, were those inflection points where people got more comfortable and adoption started to occur? The most important one was Sam launching Serum for sure. Even as late as August, September

of last year, there were still quite a few people in the market who they didn't take FTX too seriously. We were not the first ones to take FTX seriously. Unfortunately, we did pass on the FTT seed round in March of 19. I kicked myself for that every day. But we kind of recognized FTX for what it was going to be around the end of 19, early 20. And when Sam said, okay, I want to build Serum on Solana, obviously, that made us more convicted in Solana. And then you started to see a group of other investors start to get excited. Firms like CMS, Friero's, Sino Global, there's probably some others I'm forgetting about.

Jump Cap, Jump, Race, maybe some others. And then kind of the communities around these different firms all started to get more and more serious. I think the other next inflection point was Solana and the Serum teams hosted a joint hackathon. I want to say it was like over December or January. It was kind of during the wintertime, this past winter.

And the quality of the submissions was outstanding. So Sabre, which is one of our portfolio companies, and I think is the highest TVL protocol on Solana today with, I think, three or 4 billion in TVL was built at that hackathon. And today is an outstanding team and product. And then CyOptions was built there. Mango was built there. Those are probably three of the best-known Solana-based DeFi protocols started there. And for anyone who's paying attention and looked at those, it was clear that

these products were not possible to build on Ethereum, especially Mango. Mango is a very sophisticated product. You could start to extrapolate of what was going to be possible. I think probably the third inflection point for Solana was probably when

Coinbase listed it this year because it opened it up to a lot more Americans to access access this thing and then this nft boom most recently over the last call it 60 or 90 days uh where people were trying to do these nft drops on ethereum and gas fees just got insane um because you had you know 10 000 people trying to hit a transaction at the same time and yeah you know i mean it really turned a lot of people off uh conveniently the solana team built a library called metaplex um which is basically an nft library uh for solana and they built it probably launched it in may of this year um so convenient very well timed and as the kind of

nft boom got really hot over the summer and you know other people who were doing nft drops started to say oh this is great if they can fork metaplex and issue nfts and get running super super quickly um metaplex has been forked 2 000 times in the last 30 days so um there's just a huge amount of activity happening there now um you kind of couple all of this with um the rising the price the stable coins issued and all those things. And you can just kind of see the snowball now is rolling at full steam. John, what questions you got? Yeah. Kyle, thank you for doing this. It's very nice to meet you. I'm curious, you were talking about Solana optimizing for speed. Can you talk a little bit more about, does it give up anything to optimize for speed? And then can you talk about

just like the comparisons between Solana and Ethereum? Yeah, happy to talk on this. So the probably number one criticism levied against Solana is that it's too centralized. That's a mostly intellectually incorrect. There's a couple of ways in which it's directionally true, but mostly incorrect. The most common specific criticism is the hardware requirements to run a Solana node are too high. There's a fundamental question. Bitcoin is meant to run on a $10 piece of hardware. You can buy a Raspberry Pi for $20 and you can run Bitcoin on there. It's meant to be as cheap and easy to run as possible. The Ethereum people used to say it should run on a $500 laptop. They don't really say that anymore because that's not true. But like Ethereum runs

on like call it a $1,500 laptop or something. Solana does not run on a $1,500 laptop. Solana runs on call it a $4,000 gaming server. And obviously not everyone has one of those. And so the most critical criticism is that like, it's too centralized because you can't run it on your laptop, which I find to just be kind of silly. You know, like, do you run an email server yourself? You know, do you like host cloud documents yourself? Like, no, right? Like other people do this. So I find that the historical ethos of crypto was too focused on run your own piece of software and not focused enough on performance. And so Solana does make a trade-off of like, you need a beefier piece of hardware to run the thing, but obviously the

gains you get are exceptional throughput and performance through the system. That is by far the most common and valid criticism of Solana. But I think most people fail to realize that like, it doesn't matter. Today, there are about a thousand nodes running Solana. If you go to solanabeach.io and then hit the validators tab, you can see all those nodes live. I think there's a thousand and change at the current moment. You know, that's up from call it a hundred to 200, 12 months ago. And like probably another year, it's probably going to be like five or 10,000. And so there's a question of like, okay, well, how decentralized is decentralized enough? You know, I don't know. I'd say my suspicion is for most people who look at these kinds of

systems, they're going to say, yeah, at some point between 1,000 and 10,000 nodes, you have a sufficient degree of decentralization for these things to be meaningfully censorship resistant. Is it going to survive US government and Chinese government collaborating to try and shut it down? I don't know. It may not survive that if you go to some really, really, really, really extreme scenarios. But I'd say for the vast majority of intended use cases for these systems, somewhere between

1,000 and 10,000 nodes is probably sufficient. And Solana is, you know, coming up on that right now. So I just don't find that criticism to matter. It's valid, but it's just irrelevant. Kyle, when you think about going forward, is there one area of the industry that no one's talking about or very few people, but you think is going to be really, really important? And you're like, hey, if I could get more people to pay attention to this, it would be X. I mean, well, my first answer is Solana, but I'm not going to harp on that anymore. uh my my second and better answer is uh i kind of mentioned this earlier in the interview but

things that look and feel like helium helium is really unique and that again it's creating an incentive structure for people to build physical infrastructure in the physical world that's a pretty cool idea right like bitcoin is an algorithm to incentivize people to do stuff in this case unfortunately the stuff happens to be mining uh which is like not productive for society, but obviously it's a very well-designed game. Helium is a very well-designed game, but obviously the output of that game is you build a physical network that can provide extreme utility to the world. I think that model is going to be applied to a ton of industries. And we have recently led two investments that are not yet announced that are in that same kind of

camp. And I want to lead 50 more over the next two years. I think that is a great place to end. Where can we send people to find you on the internet or find more about Multicoin? Yeah. So you can find me on Twitter. My Twitter is just my name at Kyle Samani and Multicoin's website is multicoin.capital. And you can go there. We have a ton of blog posts and research there. And if you want to subscribe to our blog, there's a little newsletter thing in the top right. Uh, so go ahead and subscribe, uh, there and throw in your email. You have, uh, 69.9 followers right now, which is, uh, nice. Um, and I think that we probably can push you over there. So I'm going to drop your, uh, Twitter account in the, uh, in the chat. Anybody wants to go

follow Kyle, go do it. My friend, I appreciate you coming on. Please leave some of the financial returns for the rest of us. And, uh, we will definitely have to do this again in the future at some point. Hi, Bob. Thanks for having me on. Hey guys. Great to meet the family. Take care, everyone. Later, buddy. Appreciate it, Kyle.