The Pomp Podcast - #730 What is going on with the price of Bitcoin?! w/ Dylan LeCLair

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan Leclerc is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system. In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin, on-chain metrics, market structure, and what to expect from the rest of the Bitcoin bull market. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is Mode. Listen up. If you're a UK Bitcoin investor, this is for you.

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Starting point is 00:03:55 Go check it out. All right, let's get into this episode with Dylan. Hope you guys enjoy this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Dylan, what's going on, man? How are you? Yo, what's up, guys? I think I joined just at the right time.

Starting point is 00:04:27 The inflation gaslighting is unbelievable. It's pretty crazy, right? I mean, we literally are watching people explain that in order to deal with inflation for thanksgiving you shouldn't buy a turkey or that it's somehow your fault or that inflation is good i mean it's insane what do you think about all this yeah it's just gaslighting it's it's every other every other reason for inflation other than they just printed you know 30 of the money supply um and all the credentialed economists and academics were wrong and all the anons and and you know cartoon characters on the internet were right and it's like maybe that maybe that's you know saying something the other piece of this that uh i read the other day that absolutely

Starting point is 00:05:05 blew me away was i forget who tweeted but somebody was like no one saw inflation coming like it surprised all the economists and there was a whole article about it and i saw a bunch of people dunking on it obviously and they were like what are you talking about like literally the memes were uh the fed chairman like literally printing money with music behind it while they were doing it like the entire internet knew this was coming uh it just somehow in these academic or kind of theoretical circles uh people thought that it wasn't going to happen i guess i don't really know yeah and it's a global thing too i mean like we're seeing you know the lira is crashing i don't know if you were talking about earlier the lira is crashing 12 15 daily right it's it's unbelievable when you

Starting point is 00:05:44 look at the uh turkish lira walk me through how you think about bitcoin in relationship to that obviously bitcoin continues to hit all-time high over all-time high with the turkish lira uh as like the denominating currency does that play into anything around bitcoin adoption or kind of price movements um or do you think of it as no that's just kind of the outlier situation and it's really because the fiat currency is devaluing uh and you stick to u.s dollar denomination uh to your analysis yeah i mean i think it's huge i mean obviously uh bitcoin is a global asset and um you know some people may not have have access to to bitcoin or like the technology that that you know we have in the u.s but um you know a simple smartphone is is is accessible for you know

Starting point is 00:06:28 billions of people around the world. And traditionally, like, you know, I think the old I saw a tweet today, the older generations kind of favor gold. And, you know, that's that's holding up better than the lira. But, you know, increasingly, the younger generations want Bitcoin and it makes sense. And, you know, the USD volatility, like, oh, Bitcoin was at sixty nine thousand and now it's fifty seven. But when you're when your currency is crashing 50 percent a year, you don't really care. I mean, it's it's a lifeboat for you and your family and your savings. So, you know, the lira and I think every other, basically every other currency besides the dollar and some of the main currencies like Michael, Michael Saylor talks about are all going to continue to collapse against the dollar and the dollar will continue to collapse against real, you know, hard assets. And I think that's going to be, you know, continued trend. So even if there is volatility in Bitcoin, it's going to, it's going to serve you a lot better than, than holding fiat.

Starting point is 00:07:18 What's going on with Bitcoin's price drop recently? We went from $69,000 to under $58,000. What's going on there? Yeah, it's just, I mean, it's just the volatility. It's, you know, we talked about the derivatives and we talked about, you know, I think the dollar against these other basket of forward currencies is strengthening.

Starting point is 00:07:34 So if you're looking at like the DXY, it's the dollar currency index against a bunch of other fiat's. And, you know, a good argument is like, yeah, it doesn't really matter because all fiat's are devaluing. But with the dollar as a world reserve currency, There is kind of basically everybody's implicitly short the dollar. There's so much dollar debt out there. And so when you see the dollar strengthening against other fiat's, regardless if, you know, CPI inflation or the money supply is expanding in the US, which it is, you know, CPI at 6%, 30 year highs, regardless of that, if the dollar is tightening against other foreign currencies, you know, financial conditions are tightening.

Starting point is 00:08:12 And so that's that's kind of when we see, you know, we haven't seen it really yet in legacy markets, but this is kind of what leads to 2008 events, you know, March 2020 events. I don't think we see a spike that, you know, with that much magnitude or that dramatic, but, you know, it could potentially be a catalyst for some sort of risk off. And I think Bitcoin is as a macro asset is reacting to that in a way. Yeah. And when you think about what we're watching, Jerome Powell was just re-nominated or is going to be re-nominated as the Fed Reserve chairman. Is that just a continuation and pretty bullish in terms of we're going to continue to see interest rate manipulation, quantitative easing, asset prices will go to the moon? Or do you think that there's the possibility that even though we have the same person running kind of the Federal Reserve, there may actually be some difference in the policies that they implement? Yeah, I think it's more of the same. I honestly don't even think Powell or anyone else really matters. I mean, I don't know what he's doing. Why aren't you just retiring and going on an island somewhere?

Starting point is 00:09:13 I don't understand. But, yeah, I mean, they really don't have a choice, and they're going to go up there and jawbone and pretend that they're switching some sort of policy. But even now, I mean, like tightening or tapering is really just decreasing the rate of how fast they're expanding the balance sheet. It's not even tapering in the sense of what it used to be a decade ago. So more of the same, rates can't rise.

Starting point is 00:09:38 They have to remain negative in real terms or else the whole system implodes. And they won't say that, but that's the truth. Yeah. And then when you think about Bitcoin, we were talking earlier, the number of Bitcoin addresses with at least 0.01 Bitcoin in the balance hit an all-time high over 9.2 million now, about 9.245 million. How do you look at something like that in terms of the overall picture? We estimate that it's either new people coming in or just more and more people stacking sats and kind of dollar cost averaging.

Starting point is 00:10:08 But is that an important metric to you or is it less important? Yeah, I mean, I think that's just kind of the trend over the last decade is that this thing is just becoming distributed in more and more hands. And while addresses isn't the perfect measure because I can have 100 different UTXOs all in different addresses and honestly for privacy best practices, that's optimal. And so, you know, you can't really see that it's, it's, you know, one entity that has multiple UTXOs, but essentially, you know, starting with Satoshi and then with, with Hal Finney and then, you know, two, three, and now millions of people soon, you know, seem to be billions of people all holding Bitcoin. It's just basically becoming more and more distributed and there's less sats per person to go around. And so, you know, that, that trend, you know, 0.1

Starting point is 00:10:52 bitcoin uh per you know address uh one bitcoin per address i i kind of expect that to just continue to hockey stick up and to the right got it and then what what else are you watching right now when you see these price drawdowns is there one or two metrics that you're you know you wake up every day uh during a price drawdown you're like this is the first thing i'm checking yeah i mean like you know this kind of chop day-to-day volatility it's not something that that worries me too much i mean i checked the derivative stuff because um you know those dislocations can turn just this you know this little pullback to something more drastic and we're not really seeing that so um you know range around 50 60 000 i mean i was of the opinion uh that we would we'd

Starting point is 00:11:29 be higher now but it's not something that that i'm worried about at all because um you know i'm i'm just holding the asset and and you know if it takes a little longer then that's fine fine with me it's not something that uh as a as a convicted holler uh stressed out a little bit i would like to see how you know higher prices because of those those calls i had in the summer but you know it is what it is what were the calls again what what's the end of november it was yeah i was uh december 100k calls and so i've i will admittedly say i've trimmed up a little bit of those um but you know bought them in the summer when there was no hope and so i did i did well but you know could have done better on them are you changing your opinion as to uh the bull

Starting point is 00:12:09 market or where price could go over the next couple of months no i mean honestly if anything It's just, um, more of the opposite in the sense that, you know, the longer we just chop and consolidate, the longer I think the market has in terms of, in terms of months. And I think potentially the higher we go, um, you know, the more price just kind of like 50 K, even like, you know, if we go to 50 K today, people are going to be like, you know, it's going to be the end of the world. And think about just how different, uh, the sentiment is and how, you know, the market structure as, as more and more people allocate to it.

Starting point is 00:12:39 Um, you know, this is kind of their benchmark in terms of, in terms of like, uh, their performance and their percent gains. So the longer that Bitcoin just kind of consolidates, the more normal that 50, 60K becomes and the more capital that kind of gets allocated to it. So if anything, the longer the better. And when we see people, let's say we did go down to $50,000,

Starting point is 00:13:01 is it the same kind of mechanism or sentiment we saw around $30,000 where people were starting to scream, we're going to 20, we're going to 20. And then obviously we never went and we kind of came back up to 60 again. Is that kind of what you would expect if we really dipped lower than we already are?

Starting point is 00:13:17 Yeah, I think, I mean, I think, you know, big round numbers are definitely, they have some market, you know, significance, but really just with Bitcoin, you know, the price is set by the hodlers and stackers of last resort. And so whatever that price point is where, you know, the sellers are gone, they're exhausted, you know, absolutely scarce asset.

Starting point is 00:13:36 There's only so, you can only sell Bitcoin so much until you have none. And there's, we know that there are buyers around the world that will be a buyer at any price. And so how, you know, whatever that price point is where the sellers, uh, you know, are exhausted. And then we, you know, have only one place to go and that's up. Um, I think, I think it's somewhere around this range, but, uh, you know, we'll see, uh, you know, we just know the long-term trend is up and to the right.

Starting point is 00:13:59 Talk to me about a Bitcoin city down in El Salvador. Obviously we saw president Bukele, uh, really, really pushing, um, kind of this idea of building an entire city, uh, issuing the Bitcoin backed bonds. What, what was your general thoughts when we saw the announcement? I think it's definitely, it's definitely optimistic and it's definitely exciting. You know, I constructing a city from scratch is, is definitely ambitious. We'll see how that goes,

Starting point is 00:14:23 but I think the Bitcoin backed bonds and kind of a, a bond Bitcoin structure is, is actually pretty it's pretty interesting in terms of you know, kind of a fixed income from a fixed income standpoint. I mean, I, I don't want 6.5% yields and for the most part, I probably would just buy Bitcoin. But, you know, for a lot of these, you know, maybe if you're a fund manager, I don't know if they're going to be allowed to allocate to this institutional capital. But I know there are a lot of Bitcoiners that would, you know, fork over some money to secure

Starting point is 00:14:52 a citizenship, secure some upside with Bitcoin and, you know, kind of just fund something that they believe in. And it's really exciting just from a, you know, a bigger picture standpoint, like the jurisdictional arbitrage, the kind of sovereign individual thesis where nations, where governments are competing for citizens and competing for capital. kind of the opposite trend that we've seen where governments are trying to almost trap their citizens, trap the capital. It's exciting. And I think that's what Bitcoin kind of brings to the world. And seeing these first dominoes fall is really, really exciting.

Starting point is 00:15:26 Yeah. What's fascinating about it is if there are institutions that want to buy bonds, but they can't. And so this is a way for, or I'm sorry, they have to buy bonds. They can't buy Bitcoin. This is a way for them to buy bonds, but get some underlying Bitcoin exposure, very similar to a bunch of folks who were allocating to MicroStrategy in their unsecured notes, right? You could basically get some exposure there, or you could buy MicroStrategy stock and get some indirect exposure to Bitcoin, almost like this tracking stock for a period of time. Is your thought process that that's really who's going to be buying this? Or do you think it's going to be Bitcoiners? Do you think it will be more folks that understand Bitcoin and they

Starting point is 00:16:00 want to see this happen? And therefore, they'll go ahead and they'll buy this even though they could buy Bitcoin if they wanted to? Yeah, I think it'll probably be a mix of both. I mean, I haven't, I've talked with some people, but haven't, you know, had too many high level discussions on this more just kind of gauging the sentiment on Twitter and reading the official kind of block stream posts and what, you know, B. Kelly is saying. But I think, you know, from a kind of like a securitization standpoint and like a digital asset standpoint, I think maybe that's a little overhyped when people say just throw around the word digital asset, like, you know, it's kind of a buzzword in a way, but, uh, I think like kind of being on, on a native, uh,

Starting point is 00:16:39 Bitcoin rails, uh, with, you know, the liquid network and what it's, uh, I think they're teaming up with Bitfinex. Uh, I think these notes will probably be trading just like a, you know, another crypto asset. Um, and so that's kind of from a, from a, you know, finance or econ lens. Um, it's, it's exciting to see all this kind of unfold because, um, you know, this sort of innovation and maybe I think, I hope it'll be somewhat seamless, uh, in the sense that, you know, these things are just trading 24, seven, three 65, like, you know, these other assets, um, that's exciting. And the ability to, you know, kind of custody these, uh, these notes and, and have a,

Starting point is 00:17:11 maybe a Bitcoin income stream, uh, is pretty cool. Joe, John, what questions you got? Maybe Joe, we'll start with you first. Yeah, I'll go. Dylan, what's going on, man? Uh, so my question is as we get closer to the, uh, kind of the end of these cycles and stuff like that, how are you thinking about drawdowns of the past? Do you think they'll continue to be as of aggressive or do you think as we move further out in the process of Bitcoin and the rewards get slashed down and stuff like that,

Starting point is 00:17:37 that we'll see less aggressive drawdowns? Yeah, I think you're going to see volatility probably for the next decade or however long it takes for fiat to really cannibalize itself. The volatility, the leverage unwinds, and we're talking now today when we're talking Bitcoin volatility, for the most part, it's native to Bitcoin or crypto. It's crypto traders, bitcoin traders and they're getting aggressively long or short and you know they get wiped out one way or the other but um that's true for the legacy system as well um and we just started to see those kind of two worlds intertwine the last 24 months uh 20 months from you know march of 2020 and so now i think uh as bitcoin gets bigger um as the whole the whole ecosystem gets a lot bigger and

Starting point is 00:18:18 and more people and more institutions and more capital has bitcoin on their balance sheet uh they become more and more intertwined and, and all of the, you know, the fiat fractional reserve IOUs on everyone's balance sheet along with Bitcoin that's, you know, BTC USD USD is a denominator in that equation. I think we're going to see these kinds of these violent unwinds and, and then re-inflations as, as the system is, is essentially dying. The fiat system while Bitcoin is monetizing. So I think volatility is here to stay. And I think from an investing standpoint,

Starting point is 00:18:49 it's exciting because, you know, there's a lot of opportunity there. Bitcoin draws down 50%. Well, you know, you have a pristine asset that you can collateralize and, you know, use to lever up or, you know, do all these sort of things to take advantage of it. So I don't think volatility is going away. I think in real terms, in purchasing power terms, volatility is decreasing. But, you know, that's a broad trend that's happening over years, over maybe a decade or two um but in terms of fiat volatility that i don't expect it to go away at all john what's up dylan how are you john so the last having was in may of last year and obviously we're not going to see another having until may of 2024 so typically we kind of see bull market after the having bear

Starting point is 00:19:38 market going kind of almost into the having what do we expect to see like do we expect to see the exact same thing that we've seen in recent cycles and how do you think about that yeah i think the having will probably make um you know less of a market impact than it than it ever has just because relative um to the market uh the circulating supply is just not as significant um you know in the stock subsidies is cutting from 900 to 450 a day inflation rates like 1.8 annualized to uh i think 90 basis points to 0.9 around there um so in terms of like you know market impact i think it still has one but it's not going to be as significant um i think more more with straddling this now is uh you know the fiat's demise as well as as just kind of the natural uh you know boom

Starting point is 00:20:26 and bust uh and human psychology like we saw uh you know somewhat like a you know six month and then three month bull and bear cycle um i think you know you know not to expect that over and over again but um i think maybe maybe three years of a bear market and then 12 months of parabolic bull markets it could happen but i it's not my base case and i think more what's driving it is just um i think we've almost hit this like threshold or this um this point of no return in terms of bitcoin adoption and it's just it's just kind of you know exponentially feeding on itself and so We'll see that reflected in the price with a lot of volatility, but I think that the halving as a catalyst is not nearly as big as it was in 2012, 2016, or 2020.

Starting point is 00:21:09 Agreed, especially when you think about 90% of the supply is part of your circulation. Yeah, I think we're hitting that 90% threshold in a month or two, so that's going to be a pretty cool landmark. Dylan, when you look at a lot of the on-chain metrics, what's your general sense? when the price draws down like this, is it possible to see a reversal? We started to see some of the dispersion that was happening as price went up from people who've been holding for a while. When price draws down, can they almost head fake a little bit or give us a pump fake? They start actually accumulating more at the lower prices and then we go back up to

Starting point is 00:21:43 65,000, 70,000, then they restart that dispersion or would that be not really something that you would expect? Yeah, I think that's fairly accurate. A lot of the on-chain stuff is showing these broad trends that happened over months, over quarters, over years. And then the day-to-day, hour-to-hour stuff is just traders watch trading, right? Like there's a couple million Bitcoin that are sitting on exchanges and there's hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin in spot and derivatives volume that you have whales that are just trying to accumulate more Bitcoin and they're driving the price up and down and up and down. But really what kind of unlocks these bull and bear markets, what unlocks these millions of coins of supply that have been dormant for years

Starting point is 00:22:23 is higher prices right it's it's literally the higher prices of a parabolic bull market that that gets people to you know just liquidate a little bit and take some off take some chips off the table and so when price draws down uh you kind of see the opposite dynamic and say hey i'm not going to sell and maybe i'll i'll allocate a little bit more and so um we started to see that that profit taking that distribution phase uh as we you know hit 68 69 000 we started to see that just a little bit um and so you know i think that that has slowed down since then and so if we just continue to consolidate around. I don't expect bull market profit taking because we're not seeing the bull market price action. And so from that sense, just more accumulation and it's just like

Starting point is 00:23:03 repeating myself over and over again, but it's like loading that spring up and the higher parabolic reflexive phase of that bull market is still yet to come. And we'll see that when higher prices start to come. How do you think about a timeline on the bull market? We've talked in the past that maybe December isn't the end of the bull market could go longer. You still think that? Yeah, I do think that I think, you know, obviously we have to reclaim the all time high, whatever that comes. And then we just have how Bitcoin trades.

Starting point is 00:23:32 Like I think eventually we'll, there'll be a clean break of 60, 70 K. And then from there, I think honestly, there's probably going to be some gaps upwards. You know, who's, who's a willing seller at 74 or 78, right? Like, I think, I think a lot of those, those limit orders, the sell orders just get pulled um and i think there's a good chance to just gap um and then from there probably a hundred thousand is a nice psychological barrier but um you know i think i think there's months months left of this bull market and and right now we're not even really

Starting point is 00:24:02 seeing bull market price action it's almost like the bull market like the phase two of the bull market hasn't really started yet we're still kind of we're below all-time highs we broke the april all-time high but really not convincingly it was you know just just briefly and so um i think december is you know it's definitely not the top unless we see some really significant macro event like you know some march 2020 event but even then right like march 2020 if you're just looking at the chart uh you know ranging around 10 000 it just drops down and then goes right back up and basically a month or two and then we just kind of see that accumulation until until the bull market was ready to go until there was no more supply left and so that's kind of how i think about it i

Starting point is 00:24:39 think um you know eventually we're just going to see a snap upwards uh once the big players have filled their bags and they're buying like make no mistake um and so however long that takes and then and then you know it's off to the races and we'll probably have some some you know weeks or months of fun left and so i think that goes you know you know pretty far into 2022 um it you know depends on what bond chain's looking like it depends on what price action and sentiment's looking like but uh i don't think people are ready for how crazy it's going to be when everyone's eyes are on Bitcoin and it's going up days on end. Yeah. I mean, it could get quite crazy quite quickly, as we know. Last thing is, when you look at the market, obviously, we had the

Starting point is 00:25:25 Bitcoin ETF, the futures ETF coming to the market. Does that have any impact on price yet, you think, either positively or negatively? Or do you think that's just a coincidence that it was approved and gotten to the market around the same time that some of this price action happened? Yeah, I think it has a marginal impact just with how derivatives are positioned. It increases that basis premium. Basically, the market neutral rate, the risk-free rate that you can get by just longing spot, shorting futures. This is more of an institutional move. You're not seeing retail traders going and shorting futures and longing spot to capture a 10% yield. But for an institution, that's pretty exciting. That's a good trade for them. So we're seeing it increases the incentive to go do that. But besides that, it's pretty marginal. I think a spot ETF would be probably an order of magnitude more important to the market. And so when we get that, I don't have a good feel for it. But, you know, probably sometime in 2022. But, you know, a couple of million, a couple of billion dollars of open interest added to the CME, you know, it's meaningful. It's not the biggest driver in the market, but it makes a difference. Got it. Joe, John, you guys got any other questions? Dylan, what's the sentiment out there? Are people getting angry on Twitter? What's the deal?

Starting point is 00:26:43 Yeah, I mean, I think I think a little bit, which is exciting. I mean, I think that's close. The bottom, you know, must be close because, you know, people are getting people are getting restless and anxious, anxious. So what do you think about Odell taking his salary in Bitcoin? About time. I mean, we're going to see more, I think. I think it's cool. It's cool seeing the cultural aspect of it. Um, you know, I think, I don't think a lot of the, the Bitcoin haters and the people in the, in the mainstream, uh, media who are kind of, you know, Bitcoin skeptics, uh, for the longest time we're expecting, you know, the cultural side of it to take place. Um, but you're seeing Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Odell, Saquon, uh, and, and definitely a lot more to come. Um, it's a pretty cool, it's pretty cool to see it all unfold. And I think it's just a start. Great.

Starting point is 00:27:25 John, anything else? You sell that few hat in the store? Oh, you need one of those too? i may have to cop one of those he said i'll take one of everything dylan on friday we've got uh uh a bonanza we're doing like i don't know six seven ten twelve maybe 24 hours straight live stream we're gonna have everyone here in the studio on uh black friday just see how crazy you can get so if you're around you'll have to uh come back and uh and bullshit with the rest of us.

Starting point is 00:27:57 I'm happy to swing by, yeah. I'll be free. All right, man. I appreciate you taking the time to do this. As always, anyone who's not following you on Twitter, they just haven't been paying attention. How are we looking on follower count? Let's see here real quick.

Starting point is 00:28:13 We're sitting at, oh, 86. Oh, you're definitely hitting 100. You might hit 100 this month. Get a couple more tweets out there. Maybe. i mean 100k by the end of the at the end of the month that puts us in range what did i say uh 150k by the end of the year i think that's that's bullish pop i think you can do it i think it's in the bag as long as you tweet if you don't tweet then we're not getting there but if you

Starting point is 00:28:40 tweet we got it i'll post some hopium awesome man listen thank you so much for doing this we'll uh maybe we'll talk to you on friday all right see you guys have a good day later thanksgiving Thank you.

The Pomp Podcast - #730 What is going on with the price of Bitcoin?! w/ Dylan LeCLair

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