The Pomp Podcast - #772 Free Market Solution To A Broken Cost Of Capital w/ Dylan LeClair

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan LeClaire is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management. He also writes a newsletter with Bitcoin Magazine. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, on-chain metrics. We talk about Bitcoin's price, the market structure, and what to expect in the coming weeks. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is sponsored by the Bitcoin 2022 conference. Bitcoin 2022 is the largest Bitcoin event in the world that takes

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Starting point is 00:03:55 of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. All right, let's get into this. So today, our opening slide is the free market solution to a broken cost of capital, which is a awesome, awesome title for this. Let's get into first, we've got the percentage GDP, a weighted average, global debt as a percentage GDP. What are you looking at here? Yeah, so this is just the best chart I could find. It seems to be a little bit outdated, but it's just basically aggregate global debt. It's an estimate because it's not really known, to be honest, with how the financial system works, the euro dollar system, fraction of reserve banking. But this is just basically a rough estimate of total global debt.

Starting point is 00:04:48 And some estimates from people that I speak to say it's much higher, around $400 trillion. But either way, a trillion is a million millions. So quite a lot of debt out there. And, you know, if we go to the next slide, we can kind of see what's kind of the problem here when we're talking about a free market solution and Bitcoin being that. So this is the 10 year U.S. Treasury bond. For those that aren't really familiar, the dollar is a world reserve currency. So the U.S. Treasury bond and the yield off that is basically kind of the like free market rate or not free market, but the rate that the entire world, the entire financial system goes off of. So this is kind of that bedrock that the entire global financial system operates on. And so you can see from 1981 all the way to today, the yields have been basically down to the right, a lot of lower highs.

Starting point is 00:05:37 And so with every kind of financial crisis, every debt crisis, yields plummet and the credit binge continues. And this is nominal yield. So this is before inflation. And the next chart is even a little bit scarier. All right. Next one, we've got the real 10 year treasury bond yield versus the 10 year tips. What's this showing us? Yeah. So you can just kind of ignore the tips. But what the real yield is, it's the same chart that we just showed, but adjusted for inflation. Right. So you can think of this when you when you borrow money, you're paying an interest rate. And if you if you subtract the inflation rate on that debt that you're paying back, what's that yield you're paying on the debt? And so right now, with the U.S. Treasury bond, basically, if you buy the U.S.'s debt, you give money to the U.S. government in exchange for an interest payment and getting your money back at the end. Right now, on an annual basis, you get about a minus 5% return.

Starting point is 00:06:27 And that's if CPI, that's if the inflation rate they're reporting is true. And so why is this a problem? Essentially, because not only are we talking about the debt, but every asset in the world, every asset has a valuation, has a market cap, has a fair value. It's being valued off of a negative cost of capital, negative real yield. So whether you're talking about Apple stock or, you know, baseball card business or anything, it's being valued with basically a cost of capital or a yield where real yields across the planet, $300 trillion worth of assets. Even more if you're counting equities and real estate and the whole nine yards, probably five, six, $700 trillion worth of value. It's all being basically valued with this distorted cost of capital. because of central banking and because of how far we are in this kind of fiat debt-based

Starting point is 00:07:17 monetary system. Rates can't sustainably rise or else the whole thing collapses. So we have a problem. And I think we have a solution as well. It's absolutely nuts to think about how crazy this has gotten. Your next slide here is Bitcoin, the perpetual futures open interest. What is this showing us and why is this important? Yeah. So I just, you know, this whole kind of slide deck, this whole presentation is to help people kind of understand, one, there's a big problem out there. And two, a lot of people throw around Bitcoin as a solution, or you'll hear digital gold, or, you know, Bitcoin is shorting bonds. And you hear all these sorts of analogies, but, and especially with Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:07:56 derivatives, there's a lot of confusion out there, because these markets are really complex, and they move really fast. But really, what Bitcoin derivatives and what Bitcoin, the bear asset, which has no yield, right? If you hold Bitcoin in your cold storage, there is no return in Bitcoin terms. You're just holding a digital bearer asset. But with Bitcoin derivatives, that is actually starting to change. And so there's this whole complex new world out there that I believe will, in the coming decade or maybe two, disrupt this $300 trillion bond market Ponzi. So the Perpetual Futures Open Interest, Perpetual Futures Contract, we've gone over it a couple of times, but I get a lot of DMs, especially after your show's pumped and people

Starting point is 00:08:35 are asking me to explain it a little bit further. And so I figured we could break it down a little bit. A perpetual futures contract is just a futures market that never expires and just rolls over. And so there's speculators that are betting on the price of Bitcoin to go up or down through longer shorts. And currently that market is about $10 to $20 billion, give or take. So it's still pretty small when you're thinking about the $100 to $500 trillion asset pie. But this market has seen incredible growth over the last couple of years, and I think we can expect that going forward. Do you think that it can continue to grow materially from here? Or is this maybe not the top of the market, but definitely it's harder to go exponential from where we are? There was

Starting point is 00:09:20 such major growth. How much bigger could this market get? Yeah. So right now, Bitcoin's valued at about give or take 900 billion dollars um you know a lot of people have a lot of different opinions um and i think in terms of percentage growth on a relative basis it's a lot harder for bitcoin to say 10x like it did in a year and say 2013 and then you know compared to today when it would take you know hundreds of billions like a trillion tens of trillions of dollars for that to occur again of capital in flight but i i would suspect that um you know 100 trillion dollars you valuing Bitcoin at $500,000 is, wait, that's 5 million, I'm sorry, is basically what I would perceive to be relatively fair value when you consider just the monetary attributes and kind

Starting point is 00:10:09 of the big problem in the world today, right? When people say, what solution does Bitcoin solve? I tell them the biggest problem in the world, the broken cost of capital. No other market can, And no other product or service or, I guess, protocol can solve a $500 trillion problem. It's the biggest problem in the world today. So when we go and we look at the actual futures funding rate, what is the difference here? Why is this important to you? Yeah, so here we're talking about the cost of capital. And essentially what Bitcoin derivatives are, right, is we have this native bear asset, Bitcoin, with no yield.

Starting point is 00:10:45 And now we have a futures market built on top of it. And there's people that are betting on the price to go down or up. And in a perpetual futures market and in any futures market, for every long, for every buyer, there's a seller, right? There's a contractual obligation. And so depending in the Bitcoin futures market, there's never more longs or shorts. But these players, these speculators can drive the price up or down. So if they're driving, if, say, speculators in the futures market are driving the price higher than the spot market price, say the price on Coinbase, Well, what's going to happen is there's going to be a funding rate applied to basically disincentivize or to tether this futures market price to the actual index market or to the spot market.

Starting point is 00:11:32 So if speculators are really bidding the price of that perpetual futures market contract up, we're going to see this funding is positive. So I applied a seven-day moving average to this funding rate over the last two years. And what do you see, right? At the beginning of, say, February of 2020, the funding rate every eight hours was 0.88%, but on an annualized basis, that was 96%. So what does that mean? It was saying, you know, over a seven-day period, longs were paying shorts 96% just to hold their position, right? So essentially, if you were just a market participant with some Bitcoin, you could just go short Bitcoin with just a small percentage of your staff, just be market neutral if you

Starting point is 00:12:14 wanted to, and you could harvest a 96% yield in the Bitcoin futures market, right? And so I get people don't want to short Bitcoin, but what this is saying is that the cost of capital in this market is not centrally planned. There's no board or committee, and it's entirely free market dependent. So this happens on the long and short side, and there's massive liquidations that often occur, right? But really what this is saying is that we have this native cost of capital that isn't subject to any just board or committee or central planning market. It's completely open and free. Speaking of those liquidations, you have the futures long liquidations, and it looks like things were real crazy back in the beginning of 21, but kind of cooled off towards the end of the year.

Starting point is 00:12:56 Yeah, so I threw this up here just to kind of show what happens when dislocations occur, right? So if you think about like the financial crisis of 08 or 2020, every time that there's a 20, 30, maybe 40% drawdown in traditional markets, what happens? You know, the lender of last resort comes in, they bail everybody out. In 08, they bought all the bad debt off the bank's balance sheets and pumped a bunch of money into the system to keep it afloat. In Bitcoin, there's the UTXO set, there's the full nodes that are enforcing a hard cap supply, and there is no lender of last resort. You either have Bitcoin, you have enough collateral, or you don't. And so, if all of a sudden that margin call comes in Bitcoin or in crypto, in these derivative markets, it's not called a margin call, it's called a liquidation. Basically,

Starting point is 00:13:46 your account gets marked at zero and you lost your holdings. And so, this is in steep contrast to the legacy system where often collateral is rehypothecated. And when, you know, a lot of market participants are all hurting at once, a lender of last resort comes in and, you know, bails the system out. And this is, you know, exactly the opposite of what we saw or what we see in Bitcoin all the time, where these huge volatile moves are, you know, occur on a regular basis and any dislocations are wiped out. And so this cost of capital in Bitcoin, although very variable, is entirely free and open. And so Bitcoin right now is 900 billion. Aggregate futures open interest, which we'll show on the next slide, is about 20 billion, right? Really

Starting point is 00:14:27 small. It's about 2% of the market cap. But what happens when Bitcoin is in a trillion dollar asset and it's a 10 trillion or 100 trillion dollar asset, and this futures market is 200 billion or a $2 trillion market with a floating cost of capital. And I suspect that it's really going to force the hand of all of these central banks around the world who centrally plan their cost of capital, centrally plan these interest rates. I think this will be a kind of a forcing mechanism, almost a check on the irresponsibility of central planners. Got it. And then when we start to look at the annualized rolling basis, what is this showing us? So this is just similar to the perpetual swaps. We have quarterly futures markets. So say March of 2022, there's a Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:15:12 futures contract for that right so right now bitcoin say at 47 000 the march 2022 contract could trade at say 48 000 or 49 000 and so if i was just interested in capturing a yield right like there's there's 300 trillion dollars of of fiat denominated debt out there chasing one two three percent nominal yields right there's 30 trillion dollars of government debt that's all that's all basically at max getting two percent return on an annual basis well right now and it's very small, right? We're talking about $20 billion. But right now, I can sell the forward Bitcoin futures contract in March. I can buy some Bitcoin today with a promise to pay, and I can get a 9%, 10% yield, right, on an annual basis. And while that may not seem like a lot, this has

Starting point is 00:15:58 pretty big implications as this market, again, grows from, say, $20 billion to a lot, lot larger, right? The whole point is that there is no central planning committee. There is no chairman to decide these rates and it's entirely free market dependent. In April, right before we had these massive liquidations, you could do the same kind of trade where you sell the forward futures and you just buy Bitcoin and you're completely market neutral, meaning you're not dependent on the price going up or down. You're just flat. You could capture a 45% annual return. So the whole point is that whether it's perpetual swaps or quarterly futures, a lot of people get confused with derivatives. But the thing you have to know is there's a really big problem in the world. It's

Starting point is 00:16:40 that the cost of capital is manipulated and planned uh and when these with these basically completely native uh you know crypto derivative markets bitcoin derivative markets um that's changing and so while it may seem like it's a hindrance to bitcoin's adoption and the volatility isn't good uh what we have are free and open markets and i think that can't be stressed enough i tend to think that it is uh very very manipulated which you're doing a great job of highlighting here but i just don't think people quite understand how severe it is uh joe john questions you guys got um i'll ask dylan how do you think about all the futures etfs going on like how would you think about investing in one or not investing in one yeah i would i would think that

Starting point is 00:17:19 uh i wouldn't buy uh futures etfs just because there's there's a rolling kind of component to it so um the futures bitcoin futures tend to trade above the price of a spot um so to say you know for the the example we just gave the march uh futures contract is trading at uh you know a bit a thousand dollars higher than than the spot price um but you know the cmes uh or like the the valkyrie etf say is buying cme futures and they're rolling it in the front month futures every single month so you're basically buying bitcoin higher than its price selling it and doing that every single month and over the long term you even if it you know basically kind of correlates to the bitcoin performance you underperform bitcoin itself um so i would say for any kind of retail

Starting point is 00:18:00 investor uh to just figure out you know how to buy a bitcoin and eventually take custody yourself which you couldn't do with a securitized product like a futures ETF. But for someone that's allocating capital on institutional basis who can't go buy a Bitcoin on, on square or strike, right. It's a, it's a lot, it's a, just, it's a, you know, the only option they have really. So I mean, it's good for overall adoption for big players, but I think the spot ETF will be a lot more optimal in that sense. And then what have you seen with on-chain with people moving coins on or off

Starting point is 00:18:32 like in between hot and cold storage? Yeah. We've seen this trend since March of 2020 of big outflows from exchanges. That was the macro top for this exchange balance trend. Through the 2017 bull market, coins were flying onto exchanges. And since then, we've seen the opposite. The last couple of months have stalled. But really, I think you're seeing just this natural organic adoption of people realizing that Bitcoin is this digital bearer asset, and there is this sovereignty that you can achieve with any other asset. Um, and aside from the financial side of things, which, you know, I tend to focus on a lot, um, it is really empowering that people can hold all of their

Starting point is 00:19:13 wealth to move anywhere in the world and, you know, even memorize 12 words in their head and just take it with them. So, um, that's definitely something encouraging to see. And, um, that also kind of has this, uh, supply squeeze impact on the price if, if occurring, uh, you know, with a lot of people at once. Joe, you got any questions? Yeah. Dylan, do you have any, like, uh, I won't call them like wild predictions, but any idea of something that might be like a big catalyst for the upcoming year? I assume some, some easy ones would be like if, uh, an ETF is approved, right? If we get some more clear idea around regulation, if the U S adopts this in some way or from another country adopts it like El Salvador, but is there anything that I'm not

Starting point is 00:19:50 thinking about that you think could have a big impact on price? Yeah, I think, I think you nailed it a little bit there. Um, just with, um, a lot of the stuff in this, in the spaces is narrative driven and you kind of see FOMO in sight with, say, what happened after March of 2020, we chopped around at 9000 all summer and the accumulation was occurring under the surface. And then Michael Saylor comes out and says, we're on a Bitcoin standard. Everyone should do this. You know, you're sitting on melting ice cubes and that and then like a parabolic run ensued. And so I think, you know, everyone's kind of bored at 45000, which would seem crazy

Starting point is 00:20:24 just a year ago. But I think that, you know, the next kind of things on the checklist are, you know, additional corporate adoption, the accounting standards that the GAAP accounting standards could definitely improve. So Bitcoin is not treated as an intangible asset. That's one thing. The next thing is, I think you saw Duke LA tweet out his predictions for 2022 and saying additional nation state adoption. And I think there's going to be some exciting news at the Bitcoin conference that we'll see. he'll be there attending. And so I would expect to see some additional nations, some additional corporations, and a lot of like pension funds and insurance funds under the surface, still just kind of accumulating small positions, right? Because they're, you know, in the game to basically

Starting point is 00:21:09 protect and hand out fiat denominated liabilities over decade, you know, two decade, three decade long time horizons. So Bitcoin in that sense, in a world where real yields are negative across the board, Bitcoin becomes very, very attractive. So I think those are just a few catalysts. And I think once we see kind of a big one, the whole FOMO stage that we saw in late 2020, we'll pick back up again. And then that's when things get exciting. Yeah. Do you think people, leaders of other countries are calling up Bukele and just saying, Hey, like, how did you do this? Give me the playbook. Yeah. I think there's, there's definitely a lot of eyeballs on, on what he's doing and his strategy, especially for countries that don't have their own currency. Right. So Bukele was on the

Starting point is 00:21:49 dollar standard um so you know he got like he had you know all the like the hardship of of having basically uh foreign reserves and and are operating on a dollar standard but he couldn't get to print it right so when the dollar uh when the dollar value really like skyrocketed and say you know early early 2020 um and everyone was hit across the board uh there was no way to stimulate and so he said okay well i'm not going to make my own crappy currency um because no one will value it outside of the people that I impose to use it, I'm just going to plug into this open monetary standard and, you know, potentially see the gains through, say, you know, harnessing untapped energy sources and basically, you know, having people all over the world that are now interested in

Starting point is 00:22:31 my little country that weren't before. And so I think there's definitely some sort of game theory in play. And although we haven't seen it play out, I think there's definitely some interesting discussions happening on the surface because, you know, we aren't the only the ones paying attention here. Dylan, when you think about kind of the conversation, the sentiment on Twitter, it seems like a lot of people, I don't want to say maybe they are getting lulled to sleep, but there's people who are going to say, I don't know. I don't know what's happening to Bitcoin. It didn't hit a hundred K by the end of the year. What's going on? What's going on? Is that more concerning to you or is that exactly what you would expect

Starting point is 00:23:04 before it makes some big move and kind of breaks out with some volatility in either direction? Yeah. I mean, I think you kind of nailed it there. It's definitely, people are getting a little board. A lot of people expected a lot higher prices. You have people now calling for a lot lower prices. It's interesting just kind of how sentiment can shift where just, you know, say 12 months ago, we were euphoric as Bitcoin broke $30,000. And so it's important to kind of just, you know, keep things, you know, just have a little bit of a long time horizon and understand what's at play. Nothing has changed in terms of the long-term Bitcoin thesis. And if anything, it's, it's never looked any better. And so, uh, we saw a lot of, you know, pretty big things

Starting point is 00:23:43 happen in 2021, uh, the taproot soft work and all of these other things that have been, that have been basically in the works for a long, long time. And so sitting at 45 or 47,000 at the beginning of 2022, um, I'm a pretty ecstatic buyer. And, you know, even though the charts may not be too exciting nowadays, uh, you know, nothing has really changed in the long-term game. Makes sense. My last question for you is yesterday was Bitcoin's birthday, 13 years. Any takeaways from just like how far we've come in 13 years? Yeah, I mean, it's pretty astounding. Just thinking about the foresight of whoever, whatever Satoshi Nakamoto is. Don't know if he's still around, but it's definitely one of the most, you know, altruistic things that's really ever been done in human history. I think Satoshi Nakamoto is kind of this legendary figure that gifted something to humanity and took back nothing in return. You know, a million or so Bitcoin estimated, having never moved, walked away from the software project with no claim to fame, just disappeared.

Starting point is 00:24:53 You know, giving us all a peaceful alternative to fiat currency and kind of the money manipulation that's occurred at scale for hundreds and hundreds of years. And so, um, in that sense, it's, it's kind of a beautiful thing. And I think, uh, you know, everybody should, should learn about the Bitcoin protocol and kind of figure out this thing and how it can empower you. Uh, January 3rd is known as proof of keys day, which is, uh, basically, you know, to take Bitcoin off exchange, hold it yourself, um, you know, establish your sovereignty to the maximum degree. And so I encourage everyone to learn a little bit more about that. Uh, and it's definitely cool to, you know, get another year in the books. I completely agree by the way you know what else happened what sliding in right before the end of the year

Starting point is 00:25:34 100k followers for Dylan 100k yup 6 figures let's get it what uh do you have a goal for this year

Starting point is 00:25:44 can we get to uh 100k a million is probably difficult can you get to 600k you think uh I mean

Starting point is 00:25:53 hell I don't know maybe we'll see 100k happened a lot faster than i think i mean i don't really have an objective goal for for twitter followers i just kind of you know post my thoughts and and then it happens so it's cool to see definitely and it's cool to interact with all these people around the world i had my first person come up to me and approach me in the gym the other day and that was an interesting uh what they say

Starting point is 00:26:14 thing they're like dude like dude i see you on pomp show that's so cool i was like did you ask if they like the videos did you ask if they like the videos like what's up with that yeah it was like i watch them all i was like damn that's that's pretty cool you're like it was weird you're like move over i gotta bench 500 now you tell them i write newsletter deep dive yeah did you get them to sign up for the newsletter show that too yeah uh i i told them to sign up for the newsletter as well no uh yeah check out if you like this kind of stuff we post a lot of the same you know stuff on derivatives and on chain and and macro data uh for the deep dive uh it's in my bio so so give it a check out we just

Starting point is 00:26:53 put out our uh our annual report for 2021 dylan are you doing anything differently with your personal position on bitcoin and thoughts on bitcoin like how to allocate capital to it in 2022 versus last year you know there's there's some things i do kind of on the margin with you know i i hold a super majority of of my i guess liquid net worth and cold storage um you know depending on some of the derivative data or some of the other stuff i'll do i'll do things that are a little more complex like long or short volatility and other stuff and options maybe which you know i i don't really encourage many people to do i just you know just just stack and and there's no way you can lose but um in terms of now no i i expect a little bit more consolidation uh for the coming

Starting point is 00:27:38 uh kind of weeks that was my my base case in in december-ish uh so you know i think we'll see a little bit more chop before things uh heat up here but uh nothing's really changed in terms of my my personal allocation. I don't know if we got anything else for you, man. I'm, uh, I'm impressed. You, uh, you continue to get better and better. And, uh, your analysis is pretty damn good. It's like, uh, I get like a front seat to a little education every single week. So I appreciate you, uh, any plans this week for, uh,

Starting point is 00:28:05 kicking off the new year? Um, no, not much. I'll actually, uh, headed, uh, to, to Nashville, um, with the, with the BM team, we're gonna get together and, and, you know, make some quarterly plans. So that's exciting. I'm, I'm excited to go get out of the cold. All right, man. Sounds good. I'll see you when you move to Miami.

Starting point is 00:28:24 See you guys. Thanks.

The Pomp Podcast - #772 Free Market Solution To A Broken Cost Of Capital w/ Dylan LeClair

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