The Pomp Podcast - #804 Bitcoin Whales Are Starting To Accumulate w/ Will Clemente

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the lead insights analyst at BlockWare. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really enjoyed this weekly conversation with Will, as always, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Exodus, the world's leading desktop, mobile, and hardware crypto wallet. They offer beautiful user-friendly blockchain products that sync across all of your devices, making it easier to send,

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Starting point is 00:02:36 This podcast is for informational purposes only. All right, we got a whole bunch of stuff. We're going to rip through these charts and then we'll talk to you about some sentiment stuff afterwards. But let's just start with the on-chain data, which really the first on-chain is actually exchange data, which is the price. So obviously, Bitcoin's fallen in recent weeks. What are you thinking about price? What are you seeing in terms of resistance, support, etc.?

Starting point is 00:03:02 Sure. So we can first just start with a couple of price levels I drew out. So I think, you know, the level we were previously talking about was $40K. And now that we flipped that previous, you know, strong support level as resistance. That's now going to, you know, serve as the most important resistance for us to flip in the local intermediate term. And then as well, the most, you know, the strongest support we have below is 30K. That's kind of confluence across several different timeframes. So it's just basic little price levels that I think are important to be watching. And when you look at this other chart you have around Coinbase and this idea of front running, explain exactly what happened.

Starting point is 00:03:41 I saw you tweeting about this this week, and I was fascinated that you were able to find this. What was happening on Coinbase when we kind of reached that low or that bottom? Sure. So I think, you know, if we really zoom out, we're kind of just in this range between 30 and 60, call it. And so, you know, you can look in the order books and see there's a lot of bids that are stacked around 28 to 30K, which were those prior lows from the summer. So I think there's a fair amount of demand down at that support level. but whenever there's you know whenever there's transparently a lot of demand in a certain area that'll get front ran right so someone can say okay well everyone wants to buy at 30k i'll just step in and buy at 30 000 one dollar right and so in this case you did have an entity that started

Starting point is 00:04:28 to kind of front run some of those bids that were stacked as we broke below 33k and in particular the entity or group of entities seem to be coming from Coinbase. So we can see that in several different ways. So first of all, just through looking at volume, we saw a large spike in volume coming from Coinbase. We can also see that in the heat map when we're looking at all the bids and asks on the heat map. And then the third thing is we can look at something called cumulative volume delta. And so this just is telling you is price moving to the bid or the ask. So as you can see this the spike up in in cvd around where we bottomed out right below uh 30k we saw that large uptick in coinbase which is showing you that a pretty aggressive bid from coinbase had been

Starting point is 00:05:14 stepping in and so when you see that happening is that something that people can uh identify before it happens or is this data only uh once it's actually occurred right because it's not like on the blockchain we can see like a mempool or something like that instead you almost have to see that it actually got filled okay there was that spike in volume and then it's you know maybe you can tell almost in real time kind of right after it occurs but uh you can't actually see that so it's impossible for somebody to front run the front runner to some degree yeah i guess so i guess i guess that's uh accurate you know you could you could see the the bids and asks right so you can see are there bids and asks set in the order book you know someone it's like for you know

Starting point is 00:05:53 for in layman's terms if you're like on ebay right and you're bidding for something you say okay you You know, I don't deem the current price that this is being priced at at market value, you know, where I'd be interested in purchasing this. So I'll set a bid below, you know, if it gets filled. Great. If not, then that's not what I deem fair value for this. Right. And so it's pretty much the same thing. Right. You have someone coming in and saying, well, I'm not interested in buying BTC at this price, but I will be interested at, you know, if we get down below. So I'll set a bid at that at that price. And so it's a bit more nuanced than that. You get, you know, a lot of spoofs in the order books and all that kind of thing. but generally speaking, that's kind of the premise behind looking at bids and asks, right? And then you can look at what are the active bid, what, you know, what are the active orders coming through the market? So, you know, the bids and asks, they're great to look at, but at the end of the

Starting point is 00:06:41 day, they're really just advertisements. What you really need to see is, you know, what are the orders that are actually getting filled? Because when someone's setting a bid or ask again, it's an advertisement, it's someone just saying, you know, I'm putting this in the order book, you know, here, everyone look at it, right. Versus someone stepping in the market and actually market buying. And so of course you can't see that beforehand, but we can't see that as it's occurring. And so you did see that uptick in volume as well as CBD ticking up as that started to occur once we broke below 33. And this was on Monday. And you saw in the day after as well, another kind of steady bid during New York hours. So there's some type of entity or group of

Starting point is 00:07:20 entities that was interested in buying around that 33K area. When you mentioned spoofing, Real quick, explain what that is for folks who don't understand some of the kind of complexity and nuance of what folks are doing in these order books that can affect price to some degree. Sure. So spoofing is something that's like illegal in traditional markets, but in the Bitcoin market, because a lot of these exchanges are more unregulated, it does occur a lot. The premise behind this is, again, bids and asks are basically just advertisements. So let's say that, you know, I wanted to fill up my bags. So what I could do is, and I'm a whale and price is starting to run away from me, I can set, you know, a large wall of asks above the current price, cap off the price, because no one's going to want to buy into that big wall of sell orders, right? And then I can actually be filling my bags. So using those fake asks, the spoof asks to actually generate liquidity because everyone's going to close out their longs or short into that wall of asks so that I can fill my bags. Or conversely, I could set a wall of bids below if I'm trying to get out of the market because no one's going to want to sell into that big wall of buys. Meanwhile, I'm actually using that liquidity to exit the market.

Starting point is 00:08:31 So, again, like there's a lot of nuance to this. But when we talk about spoofing, that's what we're talking about is basically using bids and asks to your advantage to kind of generate your liquidity to get in and out of positions. And this is something, again, that's illegal in traditional markets. But because a lot of these exchanges are less regulated, it does occur on a fairly regular basis in the Bitcoin market. Got it. And then let's look at the supply shock ratios. We've been talking about this now for almost a year, I think, and you've been all over this. So what are you seeing with these supply shock ratios? It looks like it's pretty bullish in terms of what you would expect right now in a price drawdown. Right. So I think we first need to preface with like, in any market, there's supply and demand, right? And so there's been a lot of people that have been saying, what happened to the supply shock, right? You're talking about a supply shock, right? For a supply shock to occur, you need low available supply plus demand, okay? And so this is just looking at the demand side. So what this is telling you is in layman's terms, it's showing you the movement of coins from strong to weak hands or from weak to strong hands. And the way I'm defining that is by the spending behavior of the entities on the blockchain. So you're tracking the movement of coins from entities that have a high tendency to sell to entities that have a low tendency to sell, right?

Starting point is 00:09:50 Low tendency to sell being illiquid entities, hence liquid supply shock ratio. And so what you can see is throughout 2017, we had an uptrend in this until once we finally broke below that uptrend, that marks the 2017 top almost to the tick, as well as once we broke below the uptrend from late 2020, early 2021, that kind of gave you a preface that we were going to have this drawdown in May. We continue to move up off of the summer lows, and this continues to just grind up and up and up. But of course, again, this is only speaking to the supply side. So this is just telling you the quality of Bitcoin's float is very healthy right now. But I do think the kind of lackluster of demand on the other side of the equation has been kind of driven by this macro uncertainty.

Starting point is 00:10:38 You know, we're talking about like monetary tightening. We've seen general risk off behavior from the NASDAQ and just overall equities. So I think that's kind of to blame for the lackluster of demand. But when we talk about what does the supply side look like, which I do think is very important to still keep in mind, because that's one half of the equation, that still does look very healthy. You still do have very strong huddling behavior. Yeah, what's fascinating to me, and I was actually talking to somebody this morning about it is like, it feels like there's basically a bifurcation of people using Bitcoin, some of the folks who are more the institutional investors, the Wall Street hedge funds, etc. Bitcoin is the riskiest asset they have in their portfolio, right? It is the risk asset, it's kind of the pure macro asset. And when you look at that, they're going to sell it in times of the Federal Reserve, kind of talking tough and talking about raising interest rates, etc. You know, risk off and let me go back into more conservative assets. uh but then there's this whole community of bitcoiners that actually treat bitcoin as the reserve asset they don't sit there and uh treat it as a risk asset and so they don't care what goes on at the fed they're going to just continue to stack i think that's what you're seeing here with these kind of strong hands um they just continue to buy bitcoin and at cheaper prices

Starting point is 00:11:47 they get excited because it's transferring it from the short-term kind of weak hands to the strong hands which you know if people were paying attention last summer you and i spent literally week after week after week talking about that theme and then eventually it led to uh some you know, pretty crazy fireworks. So let's look at, uh, on the demand side, whale balances. What, uh, what are you seeing here? Yeah. Um, if, if, if, if you don't mind, like just to touch on what you just said, I think like the big difference between like now and then is back then we still had a dovish fed, right? So you still had a favorable monetary backdrop for Bitcoin versus now again, you know, there's been a lot of fears around macro uncertainty, which is kind of,

Starting point is 00:12:22 you know, in my opinion, driven this lackluster of demand that we haven't seen. Uh, and then to comment on your other point. I completely agree. I posted a chart this week. If anyone's interested and wants to scroll back on my Twitter, I just threw it in the newsletter. It's looking at all entities. I think we talked about this before, actually, on the show. It's looking at all entities less than 10 BTC and then comparing that to overall circulating supply. I mean, and this chart literally goes up and to the right. And so this is just showing you exactly what you just said in the form of data, which is just that there's a hardcore base of hodlers that are just dollar-crossed averaging into this asset no matter what. Of course, their balances uptick more so in

Starting point is 00:12:59 a bull market because you have a more speculative market, which has been stepping in. But generally, yeah, they're just continually stacking no matter what the price is. So the data definitely backs up what you're saying. To move on to whale balances. So as we just talked about, supply side looks great, still lackluster of demand. This is actually one of the few metrics that I think can kind of give you a hint as to what's going on with demand. So this is looking at whale balances. And so what we're doing is we're looking at all the entities with over 1000 BTC. It's an entity being a forensically clustered address based on some of the data science that the Glassnode team has done. And so we're taking all those entities with over 1000 BTC, and then we're

Starting point is 00:13:40 filtering out all the known entities on the blockchain. So we're filtering out exchanges, which, in my opinion, is the most important to filter out. Because let's say you haven't filtered out for exchanges. You could see what's perceived as a whale inflow when it's actually coins moving onto an exchange to be sold, which of course is perceived to be a bullish thing by you, but it's actually bearish. Or conversely, you could see what appears to be whales distributing when meanwhile, it's actually coins moving off exchanges. And that's actually a bullish thing that you're perceiving to be bearish. So it's very important to filter out those exchanges when you're looking at this. And then as well, we filter out Grayscale, the Purpose ETF,

Starting point is 00:14:18 QBTC. And then what we get left with is just the raw balance of whales, right? And so as you can see, if I was to zoom a little further out, you would see throughout all of late 2020 up until early 2021, we had this really aggressive move up in whales. It was the largest period of whale accumulation in Bitcoin's history. The most amount of new whales stepping into the market in Bitcoin's history as well. After about February to March, they started distributing their coins all the way back down into about August. And we had this big pop-up off the lows. And then they did start to accumulate all the way up until kind of late September, early October. And since that time period, so that's almost six months ago, they've just continually distributed their coins. And so

Starting point is 00:15:01 that's something that probably would have wanted to be paying attention to. Admittedly, I just hadn't been watching this metric. I kind of wish I was in retrospect. And of course, hindsight says 2020, but since September, whales were distributing. And then recently, what we've seen though, is over the last week or two, we've seen them actually start to accumulate again. So if you look on the right-hand side, you'll see that little blue circle that I've highlighted. You see this big pop-up in whales holdings. So this is very interesting to me. We're kind of breaking out of this downtrend of distribution. So I think this is one of the few on-chain metrics that you can actually look at aside from perhaps like transactional activity to give you a hint

Starting point is 00:15:45 as to what's going on on the demand side. I think if you had been watching this for the last few months and seeing this decline, obviously showing you that whales have been distributing, but over the last week or two, starting to see their holdings tick up. I think that's very interesting, something you want to see kind of continue over the next week or two to see if we are starting to finally see some demand from larger players begin to step in. Yeah. It's absolutely fascinating to watch this play out. You've got another chart here, the Bitcoin relative transfer value breakdown by size. I'm not familiar with this one. So take me to school, my friend. What are you looking at here? Sure. So all we're doing here is we're just taking all the transactions on the blockchain and

Starting point is 00:16:25 then we're just breaking them down by size. So we're saying, where's transactional volume? Where's transfer volume being dominated based on the size of the transactions? And so what we see is since 2020, we've kind of just been this like perpetual uptrend. Of course, you know, a bit of fluctuation here and there, but generally just been trending up since that time period. A lot of that has to do with institutions being in the market as well as transaction batching being done by exchanges. And so, you know, again, this is really just showing you that kind of the big boys are running the show, if you will. You know, larger market participants are really kind of dominating the transfer volume. And then if you go to the next chart, you'll see the same chart, but it's looking

Starting point is 00:17:04 at, the one we just looked at is looking at transfer volume above $10 million. This one that we're now looking at is transfer volume below $100,000. So these are the smaller market participants, generally retail. And what you'll see is that they've taken up a smaller and smaller portion of volume over the last year or so. I think this also kind of shows you that there's a decrease in kind of retail speculative euphoria in the market as well. And that generally, you know the bigger market participants you know the larger transactional volume is dominating the market right now got it and then when we go ahead and we look uh kind of at the opposite end uh when we look at these uh transfer sizes less than 100k that's basically just showing us that uh it is

Starting point is 00:17:47 really the the large players not the small players exactly yeah so it's um it's pretty interesting when you kind of look at it's impossible to deny this data right um in terms of what we're seeing All right. Let's talk a little bit about the flows into Bitcoin. I know you've got kind of this like almost like volume or flow chart here. What is this showing us? Right. So as we talked about, I think part of what's been driving the lackluster of demand for BTC over the last couple of months has just been general risk off behavior driven by macro uncertainty, whether that's, you know, what's going on with Russia or quantitative tightening fears. and so like this is looking at the correlation of btc to the nasdaq and so what you'll see is generally this is kind of spurious right we go through these heavy periods of correlation we draw down these kind of like brief decoupling periods but over call at the last month or two we've had a really strong correlation as you could see kind of on the on the right hand side

Starting point is 00:18:43 this is kind of the largest block of of correlation in recent history and so again i i think um i don't to sound like a broken record here, but for a lot of the reasons we just mentioned. But to break this correlation, I think you need two things. So you either need a traditional finance rebound, particularly the NASDAQ, which would allow Bitcoin to just trade as a high beta asset. Whenever you're in risk on mode, you can start to see these correlations break down as people go out further on the risk curve. So that's one way. If you start to see a lot of the macro uncertainty subside and start to see a rebound in risk on assets particularly you know tech stocks and just you know overall just the qqq and the second way would be if we had some type of

Starting point is 00:19:27 catalyst that would draw in idiosyncratic flows so idiosyncratic is just like a fancy word i like to use to sound smart which just means unique flows to bitcoin right and so what i'm saying here is that you know unless we have some type of macro rebound you're going to need some type of event that forces that correlation to break down to the upside ideally um could potentially be you know to the downside if you have terrible news um but i'm saying ideally you know to the upside obviously um so we're looking at you know several different potential catalysts we've got things like russia being rumored to looking you know russia potentially looking to mine bitcoin intel getting involved in mining chips google looking to store crypto when in their partnership

Starting point is 00:20:10 with Coinbase, Apple and Microsoft talking about the metaverse, El Salvador, their bond raise coming up, which I think that'll get really interesting if it's oversubscribed to, as well as rumors of other Latin American countries following El Salvador making their legal currency Bitcoin. So I think it's a bit foolish to just blindly bet that a catalyst is going to occur. But I do think, again, always trying to speak in an if-then format, if one of these events occur, then I would expect the kind of correlation, the really heavy correlation that we've had to risk on equities to kind of break down. And so that's just something to kind of keep in the back of your mind. If we do see one of these kind of catalysts take place, I would expect some type of idiosyncratic flows to then come into Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:21:01 But for now, because we haven't had anything like, you know, that's causing those unique flows into BTC, we are just kind of trading at the hip of equities for the time being. And then let's talk lastly about on-chain cost basis. This is something that I've been paying a lot of attention to. And you've kind of gone back and charted, you know, what's happened over the last couple of years here. What is this telling you? Yeah. So, I mean, to back up for one second, I think like there's two types of buyers in the market. So we have momentum buyers and we have value buyers for BTC. Of course, the difficult part is defining what is momentum and what is value, because that's kind of subjective because Bitcoin doesn't have cash flows. It's just, you know, a very subjective thing based on different strategies that you like to implement to determine these things. From a momentum perspective, I think this is where short-term holder cost basis steps in. Because if we look historically, this has kind of been the area that served as either bull market support or bear market resistance. And why is this? The kind of psychology behind this is that whenever we're above short-term holder cost basis, so the red line is showing you that the shorter-term market participants or the newer market participants, because these are entities that have been on the blockchain for less than 155 days, they're in profit when we're above the line. And so in bull markets, we come back and retest that line. Newer market participants don't want to sell at a loss. So people stop selling when we retest that and we continue up. When we flip below and we come into a bear market, once we're below, they're now in a state of loss. So they're now underwater in aggregate. Not every single market participant, but in aggregate, they're underwater. And so whenever we have this underside retest of that level of the short-term holder realized price, or in other words, short-term holder cost basis, that's, you know, it's an opportunity for those market participants to exit at break-even, okay? And so as we head down into the bear, you see these continuous rejections of that line until finally we break above that, right?

Starting point is 00:23:08 And then what you want to see is breaking above and then retesting that line as support. So as you'll see throughout 2017, this kind of served as support until we broke below. Then it became heavy resistance until we finally broke above at the very bottom of the bear market. Heading into like the 2020 area, you'll see once we retested this in September of 2020, then we, you know, it was off to the races. Once we broke below in May, we would have been cautious until breaking back above and retesting in September. Recently, we've broken below. And so this is something we talked about for a long time, for months. We were talking about at the time, this was at the 53K area, talked about how we were going to becoming cautious once we broke below this area, because historically that's signaled a good time to be cautious.

Starting point is 00:23:52 We had this failed underside retest of short-term holder cost basis. And so for now, you do want to kind of maintain a bearish bias from a high timeframe momentum perspective. And so again, this is for momentum-based market participants. The short-term holder cost basis is dynamic based on the movement of market participants on-chain. So it's now down from $53K and currently sits at about $41,500. And so this is kind of the area from an on-chain perspective that I would be looking at to be reclaimed, to say from a broader standpoint that we have reclaimed momentum for the market. So with that in mind, that's for momentum-based market participants. When we talk about value-based market participants, I think the kind of low 30s, upper 20s area is like a nice value area for BTC.

Starting point is 00:24:47 So this is partially based on price action and price levels. It's also based on several kind of macro bottom indicators. So like, for example, the 200-week moving average realized price and not short-term only realized price, just the aggregated realized price, as well as delta price. and these are all kind of in the mid twenties. And so the way I'm kind of approaching this personally, and of course not financial advice is that, you know, calling the exact bottom, I think is a bit of a fool's game. And, you know, sometimes I think it's as simple as just saying, where does the asymmetry lie? Right. And so I think at this time with a lot of those kind of macro bottom indicators in the low to upper twenties, and we're sitting, you know, hanging

Starting point is 00:25:30 out in the mid to low 30s, I tend to think that the low 30s to upper 20s is a value area for BTC and the asymmetry, meaning the potential upside versus downside, is not skewed to the downside. I think at this time, the asymmetry is skewed to the upside, meaning that the potential downside is lower than your potential upside in call it a six to 12 plus month timeframe. And so the way I'm personally approaching this in my personal portfolio is that I'm not trying to get too acute with this i'm just kind of averaging in uh in the kind of low 30s upper you know if we do see the upper 20s area um you know i'm kind of just averaging in over the next couple weeks or months depending on how long it takes to kind of bottom out but i'm not in any type of rush to just lump

Starting point is 00:26:16 some and try to call the pico bottom i think that's kind of a fool's game and anyone telling you that they know exactly where the bottom is is either drinking their own kool-aid or they're or they're just kind of foolish and for lack of a better word. So I do tend to think that these kind of levels or, you know, with a kind of multi-month, several-year time horizon is extreme value for BTC and the kind of asymmetry is not skewed to the downside at this time. And of course, this doesn't rule out some type of, you know, capitulation wick if you see some type of, you know, one-off macro event

Starting point is 00:26:54 or some type of run for dollars like we saw in March, I don't think you should be betting on that. I don't think that it's very wise just to say, I'm going to hold off on averaging into BTC whatsoever. If you are a value buyer, because you're betting on some type of macro breakdown, maybe if you're a momentum buyer, you step out of the market and say,

Starting point is 00:27:16 until we reclaim, whether it's from an on-chain perspective, that short-term holder cost basis, or if you're a technical person, some type of moving average or whatever price level, that deems you to feel like we've reclaimed that kind of high time frame momentum. That's different, but from a value, from a, you know, a value buyer perspective I don't think it's wise to just be sitting around waiting for some type of macro capitulation event that may not come.

Starting point is 00:27:39 But with that in mind, it is possible. So I also don't think that it's wise to just try to lump some and time the bottom. And so that's kind of the reasoning behind why I'm personally just kind of averaging into these levels. My friend, you are absolutely killing it here. My last question for you, and then we got to run, is sentiment. How are you thinking about kind of the Twitter sentiment in relationship to the actual kind of underlying fundamentals and data that you're watching here?

Starting point is 00:28:05 It seems like people were really scared and fearful, and now maybe that's loosening up a little bit. Yeah, it definitely seems like there's a lot of kind of anxiety amongst some of the folks on Twitter. I try not to honestly pay too much attention to that, because if you look at like the fear and greed index, it's been in heavy fear for two months now. So if you're kind of using that as like a buy or sell indicator, I don't really find that super actionable, right? Because in a bear market, we're in heavy fear for like a year or two. And in a bull market, you're in heavy greed for months and months and months. So generally, I think using something like a fear and greed index is not entirely useful. But it does seem like amongst some of the folks, at least on Twitter, that the sentiment does kind of lean pretty bearish and people do kind of feel like we're entering some type of macro bear market.

Starting point is 00:29:01 So it's something just to add and to consider, but I don't think that sentiment in its entirety is necessarily actionable because of kind of what I just talked about. I think you're on to it, man. I think you're ahead of the game right now. How are we looking on followers? We got a million yet? Closing in? Oh, 600K though. You know, I've been surprised with the follower growth, because, you know, you'd think whenever the market is down, that there wouldn't be new market entrants coming in. But I do find it really interesting. And I'm sure you probably noticed this as well with your own follower count that it's continuing to see somewhat of a steady increase. Actually, I had more followers this month than last month, which not saying that necessarily in like a braggy way. I just do find that interesting because Bitcoin is down pretty substantially on a kind of month to month basis. So it is showing you that there's, you know, new market participants that are coming in and people are continually interested in Bitcoin no matter the price. I do find that something interesting to know. You're killing it, my friend.

Starting point is 00:30:06 I appreciate you coming on every single week or every other week whenever you can make time for us. I always like to say that Will Clemente, he brings the noise he's got so much heat that he brings in terms of the data analyst, you're getting better and better so I appreciate you coming on my friend thanks so much, you guys take it easy

Starting point is 00:30:24 appreciate you thanks so much for listening to today's episode, I really hope you guys enjoyed this one, make sure you're subscribed on Apple Spotify or your favorite podcast player and if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered

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The Pomp Podcast - #804 Bitcoin Whales Are Starting To Accumulate w/ Will Clemente

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