The Pomp Podcast - #819 How Macro Investors Are Investing In Crypto w/ Dan Tapiero

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dan Tapiero is the founder and CEO of 10T Holdings. In this conversation, we talk about how macro investors are looking at Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets. We also talk about the recent investments that Dan and his team has been making in growth stage rounds of crypto companies. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is sponsored by the Bitcoin 2022 conference. Bitcoin 2022 is the largest

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Starting point is 00:03:46 All right, let's get in this episode. I hope you guys enjoyed this one. transformational purposes only. Dan, are you there? I'm here, Tom. How are you? Good. You're busy. You've been busy. You've been investing in everything. I said, we got to get Dan on here immediately. What's going on? Well, I don't know about everything. I mean, I don't think anyone can keep up with Andres and he seems to come out at least twice a week with something, you know. You know, look, we focus on the mid to late stage companies. And so, um, you know, actually there aren't, you know, there really aren't as many of those as there are the smaller investments as you know. Um, so we've just been steady. I mean, it's, it's been

Starting point is 00:04:49 sort of one investment a month, basically. It's just, I think all the news releases came out at the same time. Got it. All right. So talk to me about, uh, you, you operate in this like billionaire secret circle, which is all these macro hedge fund managers. You're laughing because you're like, yeah, pretty much over the last, I don't know, 30 years, right? This is everyone from the Paul Tudor Jones to the Stanley Druckenmillers to the George Soros, just literally the entire cadre of successful hedge fund managers all know each other. They've all been working together for a long time in various forms and capacities. What are they all saying right now about Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto in general? Are they still as excited as they were kind of

Starting point is 00:05:32 when we talked in 2021, uh, and prices were going up or what's the story right now? Well, I mean, I think there's a big bifurcation, um, certainly by age and focus, um, you know, within the hedge fund business. I mean, I would say the macro early adopters and you've got, of course, Mike Novogratz and, uh, Dan at Pantera. I mean, those are macro guys that have been in it for a while. They're, you know, younger than some of the guys you've mentioned Tudor truck, Julian, of course, I think being almost 90. I think that if you take a look at what Alan Howard has been doing, and again, Alan, founder of Brevin Howard, largest macro hedge fund in London, he's become very active in the space, made a very strong transition from just being a

Starting point is 00:06:26 guy who had some Bitcoin and Ethereum to deciding that, you know, this is going to be a very important focus for him. So I think, you know, you're seeing a few of the younger guys. But again, Alan is younger than that, that older cohort. So, you know, Paul Tudor Jones, I think is, you know, and he said this publicly, I mean, he I think he has exposure, but he hasn't gone all in on the space. And I think the older guys are, you know, look, if you've made your billions of dollars trading in the traditional world, legacy world, you have your framework. You really have to make a commitment of time, not just money, to really, you know, you know, dive deeply. And I think they're just, you know, it's a high barrier to entry. You've got to do a lot of work. Look,

Starting point is 00:07:18 you've done a lot of digging yourself. You've been in this space for a while. You know it deeply. It's not, you know, it's not that easy, right? Yeah. You really have to do the work. And so I think, you know, I don't think there are any real macro guys, by the way, under 35, meaning I think that that that was a world that, you know, has come and gone. I don't, you know, macro hedge fund business is not today what it was in the 90s and 2000s. uh i think the guys who would have gone into that world back then are the young guys who are the entrepreneurs pushing the you know envelope uh in this space now i mean i don't know what you think about that yeah i agree with that i think that there's a huge piece like if you go back and

Starting point is 00:08:05 uh uh just read the stories or watch you know there's like youtube documentaries about everyone from the stanley druckenmiller's the george soros's the paul tudor jones's and and you really kind of understand like how they ended up building this a lot of it was they were enticed by uh capitalistic pursuits uh they were looking for asymmetry in markets and naturally uh things like macro were the place that you ended up and i think that uh there's a lot of young people to your point that are looking for the exact same uh kind of asymmetry and capitalistic pursuits and like where does that exist today it's not in uh bond yields it's not in you know fx and that type of stuff, it's in crypto. And so naturally, that's where they they end up. And so it makes a lot of

Starting point is 00:08:48 sense. Yeah, but you know, pop also remember that in the, you know, late 70s, I mean, Soros founded quantum in 68. I mean, that was really the first or 69 was really the first hedge fund in a sense that had that, you know, offshore master feeder structure that was, you know, a deferral of your gains. At that time, those markets were early stage. I mean, gold was de-pegged in the early 70s and started trading, and that sort of unleashed a huge amount of energy and capital into the currency markets. I mean, things were pegged before more or less, and then they were de-pegged. And the treasury bond market, for instance, really didn't exist in any significant way in the late 70s. So, I mean, I kind of think of crypto and Bitcoin a little bit as like very

Starting point is 00:09:41 early stage markets. And, you know, think about, you know, there weren't even bond treasury options in the 70s. I think it was just in 79. I'm not sure that it was introduced the exact year. But it sort of reminds me today of a company we own, Darabit. I mean, Darabit has 90 percent, over 90% market share in Bitcoin and Ethereum options trading. And I just think to myself globally, you know, could you imagine in 1979 or 80 having 90, whatever, 5% market share of all options traded on treasury bonds in the world? So to me, there are, you know, there are similar comparisons. Another one is to sort of the early mortgage backed security market. I mean, the market was not invented in the 70s. It was only Lou Ranieri in the early 80s and Solomon

Starting point is 00:10:33 Brothers that really, in quotes, I would say, invented the mortgage-backed market. And so, it's sort of the same thing. It's just, I think the level of, well, mortgage-backs are pretty complex, but the level of complexity to understand how DeFi works, you know, how all of these various, what I call subsectors, underneath the digital asset ecosystem work is complex, right? But to me, early stage markets, asymmetry, young guys want to get in. There aren't older guys there to stop them. You know, there's no one really to compete with. And so, you know, you see these emerging protocols and blockchains that, you know, there actually are some new use cases.

Starting point is 00:11:18 uh you don't need the i think the intense security functionality of bitcoin for every single transaction you see this of course with nfts now coming to life so you know it's a big world it's just started and um you know i said for the older guys i think it's tough i think anyone under 35 that's you know entrepreneurially entrepreneurial and and looking to make you know money this is where they're coming talk to me about kind of mid to late stage company valuations obviously we've seen all the feds kind of uh you know tough talk and we've seen public market valuations start to come down and multiples compress are you seeing uh any of that happening in the mid to late stage in terms of multiple compressions or valuation kind of impact and

Starting point is 00:12:05 kind of a subset of that question is uh i've seen a lot of people talking online about these like crossover funds, where they actually may be accelerating some of the private market response to public market movements, because some of those investors are the exact same. It used to be public and private investors were different. Now that we get crossover funds, like maybe they're more tied hand in hand. What are you seeing in the private market? Yeah, I mean, I think valuations have been very steady. There have been things that, you know, have been at crazy multiples. I mean, you look at fireblocks and copper, you know, even I think BlockFi, which I know you're a big proponent of. And I love those guys, too. I think, you know, at quite a high valuation

Starting point is 00:12:46 and we're talking in some cases, you know, 25 to 50 times revenue. We sort of stayed away from those. Our sweet spot is sort of between 500 million and around a billion five in valuation. And, you know, we're still, you know, finding that there are opportunities out there, you know, 10 to 12 times revenue. We do a lot of, you know, digging in the secondary. So we sort of have an idea of what we want to buy. We have a map of the, you know, the DAE, the digital asset ecosystem. We have our sectors that we want to populate with investments. And so, you know, we approach companies directly. We, you know, will buy stock directly from, you know, the early stage investors as well. So we're not always sort of waiting around for Series B or C. Sometimes, like we did

Starting point is 00:13:40 recently, we'll preempt around if it's a company we really want to get exposure to. But the valuations have been okay. As I said, when you're in the secondary, you're not necessarily competing with five, what I call newcomers or tourists or some of these very large growth equity funds. And I think you're talking about them when you you're talking about crossover, you know, come into the space. And I mean, today we saw Silver Lake put a 10 billion dollar valuation on Alchemy. I don't even know what multiple revenue that is. I mean, I think it's stratospheric, but I don't know the exact number. You know, great for Alchemy. It's a great, phenomenal company.

Starting point is 00:14:25 it was $3 billion three months ago or whenever, $10 billion now. We pass on those types of deals, even though, of course, we like the company. I mean, I think we probably passed on over 100 deals last year. I mean, imagine that there were even 100 companies to look at. A lot of them were just too early. We tend to look only at companies that have a valuation of sort of $400 million or more companies that are already making you know 40 50 million dollars in revenue um so look the things that have been expensive uh have stayed expensive but there's a whole world underneath uh you know the headlines um you know the headline raises where evaluations are still pretty reasonable uh just this one stat i love saying you know 18 months ago there were 14

Starting point is 00:15:18 companies in the entire world in the digital asset ecosystem. Again, crypto, blockchain, Bitcoin tech companies with a valuation of over a billion dollars, right? Only 14. And today, they're close to 100. So, you know, that is an insane rate of growth. I mean, we talk about exponential growth in the space all the time. And I say last year, we did $60 trillion of total world cryptocurrency volume and the year before was 10 and in 2019 was four. So, you know, what world has ever gone from $4 trillion, let's say a volume to 60 in two years? You know, the private equity valuations, the private market valuations, almost impossible to keep up with what's going on in the underlying. How do you think about a lot of these big, whether they're financial institutions,

Starting point is 00:16:08 big investors or the macro folks, the kind of the secret billionaire group, if you will, holding Bitcoin specifically. One of the things I'm fascinated by is up until the last week or so, correlation between Bitcoin and other risk assets was dead on. And it seemed like a lot of the folks who had bought Bitcoin for the first time in size from the legacy world over the last maybe two years, they were treating Bitcoin like a risk asset. But then there's this like underlying kind of retail audience that treats it more like a reserve asset. Is that just too much of a generalization? Or how do you think about that? Yeah, I mean, I think there are two groups there. I think that the, you know, billionaire macro investors, as you call them, I do think

Starting point is 00:16:47 they own some small percent of their portfolio, Bitcoin, and maybe a little Ethereum. And they they're holding it for the very long term. They they're not trading it. I think that there's another cohort of, you know, traders or hedge fund traders who are more active, who are probably, you know, they've included it in their portfolio and, you know, they are probably managing risk through, you know, some sort of VAR model, which I think is, you know, antedated. But anyway, people are antiquated. I think they're using it, you know, so it plays a part in their portfolio and it's part of their risk weighting. And so when some of their other risk assets start to sell off, you know, they think that, you know, Bitcoin should also sell off. Look, these are short

Starting point is 00:17:41 term flows from short term traders, in my view, have absolutely no relevance at all. It's just the ebb and flow of the markets. If, you know, someone like Paul came out and said, you know what, I'm out of Bitcoin. I just don't think it's interesting anymore. That's a very different story. I don't think, you know, he's saying that. I don't think the other sort of larger investor, well-known types, I don't think they're in that world. So, again, you know, I would just stay away from this risk on, risk off. It's just, frankly, it's just trading nonsense that's been around in that world for, you know, probably 15, 10, 15 years. You're not making any real money playing that game. So again, you know, as far as the, the, the real guys you're talking

Starting point is 00:18:30 about, I don't think there's been any change at all. I, uh, uh, I think a lot about like picking up pennies in front of the steamroller, right. And people were optimizing for a couple of percent here or there in an asset class that goes up by tens, hundreds, or thousands of percent, uh, probably not the smartest move, right? Yeah. But you know what? I wouldn't sort of denigrate that either. I mean, look, if they can take out those nickels, that's great for them. And as you know, there are some big firms in the crypto space, crypto native guys, you know, like the GSRs out there, you know, they're they're trading these markets. They've got 100 guys, you know, you know, so, you know, if you've got a full fledged operation and that's your business model, then, you know, that's that's great. Um, but as far as the sort of the big picture, and as you said, you know, what this asset is

Starting point is 00:19:18 going to be worth in the future, um, already what it's done, I mean, we know it's been the single best performing asset really in the history of the world. I mean, there's no asset that's gone up 200 plus percent annualized for 10 to 12 years. Right. So, um, I would stay, you know, focused on the long-term here. Joe, John, what questions you guys got? Dan, my question would be around how most macro analysts are looking at this in general, right? You've been involved in the space for a long time and obviously looking at the macro side for a long time also. How have those conversations changed over the last decade with kind of what we'll call traditional macro investors? Over the last decade? I thought you were going to ask over the last month or two with

Starting point is 00:19:59 the discussion. Well, yeah, maybe the last year is better. Yeah, no, but I'll start with the first part, I mean, I would say that, look, the number of asymmetric opportunities in the 90s and 2000s, you know, were enormous. I mean, you had all sorts of fundamental misalignments, the ERM crisis was one or crisis that, you know, the big convergence trade in Europe was really, you know, an exercise in understanding how politics can influence economics, but in the wrong way. And then at the end of the day, the fundamental macro, the economics ended up, you know, in some cases prevailing and not in others. But you had these big fundamental misalignments, the same thing with the Asian crisis in 97. And of course, you know, the big,

Starting point is 00:20:55 big difference is that most of the macro guys, so all of the guys that, you know, you know, by reputation, almost all of them made a substantial, I don't want to say all of their money, but certainly at least 70 to 80 percent of their money as a result of bond yields falling from their peak in the early 1980s. And so, you know, if you start in 1991, 92, 93, the two-year note was yielding 8%. I mean, the Japanese two-year note was yielding, you know, I don't even know now, certainly north of 5%. And so you had very easy bets to make in a sense you could borrow money in the repo markets overnight at a lower rate that you can invest in those two-year notes. And, you know, basically some of those guys, they wrote those two-year notes for 20 years,

Starting point is 00:21:48 all the way to zero and with almost infinite leverage, because when you buy bonds, the margin that you need to put down with your prime broker is practically zero. And so if you weren't a macro guy benefiting from that drop in interest rates, you are an equity guy who is benefiting from those drop, a drop in the expansion in, you know, in the multiples that happen in the equity market. Right. So in one sense, that entire macro game was based on that drop. And again, that was driven by an aberration really in the 70s where we had this spiky inflation and they raised rates to abnormal levels. And so we had a 20 year, 25 year period, disinflationary period where all the central bankers sort of lived in fear. They're all fighting the last battle in a sense. So they kept policy very tight.

Starting point is 00:22:44 In my view, interest rate policy was much tighter than it should have been for many, many years. And so and again, that culminated in some ways in the crisis in 08. And since 08, we've had permanently low yields because there's been too much debt accumulated in the system. And also the advent of, I would say, technology has been a permanent disinflationary force. And I think it'll be interesting going forward now whether that reasserts itself. We've had spiky inflation because the money supplies have exploded post the covid giveaway, which started in March of 20. I think it's going to be hard for them to pull it back. Very importantly, I would say going forward is look, negative real interest rates are 7 percent. OK, so that the overnight rate is around zero and CPI is seven is seven percent.

Starting point is 00:23:40 So that means the cash you hold in your bank is worth minus seven percent a year. OK, I think that it's going to take years and years for the Federal Reserve to bring on tight policy. You know, I type policy in my mind would be having the interest rate over the CPI rate. In March of 2000, the two-year note was 6% and the CPI was 3%, right? So that was 3% positive real yield in the two-year. That's tight policy. We're now completely the opposite way. So I actually am quite positive, you know, medium term on the markets, on, you know,

Starting point is 00:24:27 the traditional, let's just say the equity market. I don't really focus too much on the legacy world anymore. So, you know, very positive, of course, on Bitcoin, Ethereum, the digital asset ecosystem, all those new use cases, that whole world growing up, you know, very positive on that world. And, you know, look, this whole discussion, and this is to your last part of your question about, you know, the last few months in the Fed. you know, the Fed just mentions that it's going to raise interest rates and, you know, we lose $15 trillion off the market cap of global stock markets. So in a sense, I think the stock market really already kind of tightened liquidity for the Fed. And I think as they, you know, as they raise rates, look, in my mind as an investor, I don't make any

Starting point is 00:25:21 differentiation between a zero interest rate and a one percent interest rate or even a two percent interest rate so um and then you know pop i would wonder what your opinion is about this but you look at the yields in the stable coin market you know you get seven eight percent in the dae on a stable coin you know what and you know for goodness sake what are you doing owning legacy market uh legacy world bond markets, you know, $200 trillion of bonds in the legacy world, basically yielding less than 2% when you got a 7% to 9% yield in the stable coin market. Yeah. To me, it feels just like there's a mismatch. Some people just don't know about it. Some people are scared. There's career risk, right? I mean, there's a whole bunch of things that go into it. But to your point,

Starting point is 00:26:08 they're going to flow, right? That capital will eventually flow into those markets. Uh, and the big question is just how quickly do those yields get compressed, right? Do we go from seven to nine to three to five? Uh, and that means that we take 50 billion and put it in there. Uh, you know, how does that exactly play out? I've seen a couple of models that people have tried to figure it out, but ultimately we just don't know until it happens. Um, but I do think that, uh, it's a catch 22 for you, me, or anybody else who's participating.

Starting point is 00:26:35 I don't want them to come yet. Right. Let us keep getting eight, 9%, uh, at the same time, you know, it's going to happen. Right. I think it's I think it you know, if we look at this year and I could leave your listeners with, you know, I always like to, you know, put myself on the hook a little bit. I mean, you know, like I did with my fund name, 10T, 10 trillion. I I think that is probably will be one of the biggest trends of this year. So if I look out this year and I think it's going to be significantly more than 50 billion.

Starting point is 00:27:10 It's just a matter of letting people know, telling people, this is why you can get this kind of yield. I don't think it's, you know, it's not that easy to explain in a sense. And I think the legacy guys are all, you know, they're like, well, if I'm getting 9%, something must be wrong, right? Absolutely. How does that work, right? You know, oh, it's so confusing.

Starting point is 00:27:32 But if you're somebody who can explain to them why they're getting it, I think it's, you know, you're going to see hundreds of billions of dollars flow. And remember, and this is what I tell everybody, this is not the DAE Bitcoin crypto is not a U.S. business. It is a global business. Ninety percent of total world cryptocurrency volume happens outside of the U.S. So if the U.S. banking authorities decide, you know, OK, this is no good and people aren't allowed to do this one way or another, I don't know. I really don't think it's going to have that much effect big picture, right? This is maybe the first truly global, and I've said this many times, global macro event, macro investment of all time. We've never had anything that every

Starting point is 00:28:21 single person on the planet could actually get involved in, every country, every socioeconomic strata. I hope the US understands what this is and actually becomes a place where people want of start businesses. You know, Singapore, you have Tug in Switzerland, you've got Puerto Rico. There are a few places that are, you know, very welcoming to the crypto community. I just hope the U.S. gets behind it and doesn't lose out on all the gains and benefits of the innovation. Yeah, I completely agree. We got two last questions for you. John's got one and then I got one. John, what you got for us? Dan, nice to see you again. You guys have an impressive portfolio of companies that you put together since 2020 what are the companies or subsectors

Starting point is 00:29:06 you guys are going for with this fund three actually our first purchase was in uh late january of 2021 um so we're we're very busy um the the the subsectors in this uh new fund we've got a digital asset ecosystem gateways um so that would be you know and that's a smaller percent In the first two funds we launched, that was a third of those two. We've reduced that percentage to just 15% of the third fund. We have something called New Era DAE Businesses, DAE Infrastructure, and then we have a bucket for NFT and metaverse companies. And again, it's roughly equal to each bucket.

Starting point is 00:29:52 And then we populate the buckets with two to four companies in each bucket. And, you know, that's the way we think you have a sort of broad, diversified portfolio to the key things happening in the space. And so our bet really is that the space goes from, you know, it's worth call it two and a half, three trillion dollars today. Again, I originally thought it was going to go to 10T, 10 trillion. I'm going to be wrong about that. It looks like it's going to go probably to 30, 40 trillion over the next, you know, eight to 10 years. Dan, last question for you. I know you take your health very seriously, as do we. We are big health fanatics over here.

Starting point is 00:30:32 One of our sponsors is Eight Sleep. They've got a thermoregulated bed. People have probably heard me talk about it too much. I sleep like a baby because I just turn it super cold. What's your sleep routine? Have you changed anything now that the world's kind of opened up post-pandemic? No, not that much. I will tell you, I sort of conquered my sleep issue probably when I was about the same age you

Starting point is 00:30:55 were. Sleep is the the most important thing. I get eight hours every single day. If I don't get eight, I don't wake up. So meaning I just nothing functions, nothing works. That's the number one priority. I actually like it a little warmer. My wife's not thrilled with that often. But, You know, I do like I do like the warmer temperature, even though I know it's more healthy. And I've been told a hundred times that it should be colder. But seriously, if you're a young guy and I know when you're young, you think you can just like battle through everything and you can't. I mean, young, 20 years old, you can. But when I hit my early 30s and I was really working hard, you start making a lot of mistakes. um and then you realize that those mistakes just you know it's it just take a lot to come back from

Starting point is 00:31:49 so eight hours every day and i would just say um make it a routine right it's very important that you have a kind of routine i uh i couldn't agree more and uh uh about the same as you like now if i don't get eight hours i feel it i could literally tell you how i feel in the morning that because I've paid attention and measured it, I could tell you like, yeah, I probably got seven or I got seven and a half. I got eight. I got more than eight. Right. You just can tell. Same way. I'm the same way. I mean, every once in a while, you've got to take yourself out of your, your rhythm. So, I mean, I, I always believe in never cutting anything out completely cold turkey. I mean, you know, I've played around with my diet a ton over the past 25 years and, you know,

Starting point is 00:32:33 I've had initially, you know, I had a big weight gain and weight loss over the sort of, you know, my 20s and early 30s. You know, I, one of my mantras is, you know, I've cut out pretty much milk products completely and things that my body just can't handle anymore. But I never cut anything out 100%. It's always sort of 90%. I mean, if I see a slice of pizza there, you know, and it's looking good, you know, I'm going to have that slice of pizza. I'm just not going to have pizza every day you know or even every week necessarily so um it's just about you know oh you're a rational person that's the second part you learn after you've got your sleep and your dietary control then you realize then then you work on balance and you figure out you know because you

Starting point is 00:33:23 don't want to become so rigid that like you're only eating carrots all day right and uh you know and you start turning orange and uh no you know so again balance and going out for a few drinks also every once in a while that's healthy too right you just don't do that every night yeah i've learned so much from you from a macroeconomic standpoint and uh uh now we we are sleep buddies and hopefully i will learn more about balance over time as well so you keep the lessons coming i'll keep listening but i appreciate you uh you taking the time to come on uh we've got i think your twitter account here anyone who's not following dan let's go he uh he needs as many followers you can get 88 000 we're closing in on 100k which big deal gotta keep going what i don't

Starting point is 00:34:10 know i'm just uh age adjusted uh i think i'm doing just great hey listen you're getting to 100k when you get to 100k i'll send you like a little 100k uh cake or something right all right listen thank you so much for coming on uh huge fan as always of everything you guys are doing and we'll definitely do this again in the future great wonderful nice seeing you all right bye thanks so much for listening to today's episode i really hope you guys enjoyed this one make sure you're subscribed on apple spotify or your favorite podcast player and if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the bitcoin or crypto industry we've got you covered head over to palms crypto course dot com we've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry it's a three-week

Starting point is 00:34:55 intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #819 How Macro Investors Are Investing In Crypto w/ Dan Tapiero

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