The Pomp Podcast - #823 Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Back?! - BTC On-Chain

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off in today's episode will clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down so instead i just break down all of the charts that he put together we try our best to go through the on-chain metrics and explain what the hell is happening with bitcoin and why has the price been falling i hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously I'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as Will, but I'm doing my best to keep up. So before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to

Starting point is 00:00:41 the world of crypto. Crypto isn't made to just buy, sell and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi and trade more than 4000 tokens. Whether you're looking to play, stake, spend or just explore a trending new protocol, Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Long-time holders already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That's why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit Coinbase.com slash wallet to learn more. Again, that's Coinbase.com slash wallet and learn more today. Today's episode is brought to you by Abra. Based in California and backed by top VC

Starting point is 00:01:23 firms. Abra is an all-in-one, simple, secure app that allows you to trade over 110 cryptocurrencies, get 0% interest loans using your crypto as collateral, and earn interest with up to 14% APY on stablecoins and 8.15% APY on Bitcoin. You can join nearly 2 million users by downloading Abra from the Google Play or Apple App Store. If you download the app today, you will get $15 in free crypto once you fund your account. You can go to Abra.com to learn more. You came, you invested, now conquer. Abra. Conquer crypto. Abra.com. Go check it out today. the power to protect your financial future. You can buy, store, swap, send, and receive your crypto with a simple tap of your Arculus key card to your mobile device. Your private keys

Starting point is 00:02:31 are encrypted on the Arculus key card and they never leave it. Stay safe from hackers with no cords, no charging, no Bluetooth. The only person accessing your crypto is you. Buy yours today at getarculus.com. All right, let's get in this episode. I hope you guys enjoyed this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

Starting point is 00:03:10 So first, if we take a look, Bitcoin's been hovering right around $43,500. There's a lot of different assets across the world that are all starting to suffer. We see S&P, gold, silver, euro, yen, and renminbi all going down. If we then go ahead and look at the actual Bitcoin-specific stats, we're sitting right around $825 billion market cap, still a massive asset that's only been around for about 13 years. The inflation rate unchanged at 1.77%, and over 90% of the Bitcoin supply has been issued. One of the stats that I continue to look at is what is that settlement volume doing. Still $12 billion or so in that 24-hour settlement volume. That means people are using it. That means that Bitcoin still has value. Then active addresses, over 1 million,

Starting point is 00:03:53 which is a huge number and one that we need to continue to watch. Seeing that more people are using the Bitcoin network means that the underlying fundamentals continue to have value. GBTC now down to about a 10% discount and obviously Bitcoin down 36% from the all-time high, but up 31% from the cycle low. It's exactly what you want to see. Now, one of the things that hasn't been normal over the last two years or so is Bitcoin actually being down over the last 12 months. If you go ahead and we look here at the Bitcoin versus gold in the S&P 500, only Bitcoin is down over the last year. It's down 6%. Gold even is up half a percent. The S&P 500 is up 15%. Bitcoiners aren't used to saying that Bitcoin's down over a year, but other assets are up.

Starting point is 00:04:38 that situation that we find ourselves in. If you then go and you look over a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 year period, Bitcoin absolutely dominated the return profile. And so really just that last 12 months, something that Bitcoiners haven't been used to talking about. Now, if we go ahead and we look at Bitcoin's price closing history by level $43,500 or so, only 240 days of all of Bitcoin's history has been spent above that level. So 5% of the time we've been above the level, 95% of Bitcoin's life we've been spending below that level, which means that if you bought 95% of that time and you held till today, you're in the money. Then if we go and we look at actually some of the more nuanced data around Bitcoin and gold, S&P, NASDAQ, and TLT, the one I always jump to is what

Starting point is 00:05:24 is that compound annual growth rate over the last 10 years? Bitcoin's still growing at 148% every single year, compounded for a decade. That's exactly why people hold Bitcoin for very long periods of time. Then if we jump and look at some of the underlying fundamentals around mining, you can see that Sam Rule pulled up the Bitcoin hash rate. And when he looks at that mean hash rate on this moving seven-day average, what you can see is that it continues to be around all-time highs. Bitcoin is getting stronger and stronger and stronger.

Starting point is 00:05:53 A huge dip here in the chart is when China banned the Bitcoin miners, kicked them out of the country. And then the hash rate came back with a vengeance. The Bitcoin hash rate has grown almost 9% this year in 2022. But ultimately, the most important thing is that it weathered the storm from that nation-state attack, and it came back and hit an all-time high within about eight months. That's exactly what we want to see, is that the strongest computing network in the world continues to get stronger. The most decentralized computing network in the world continues to get more and more decentralized.

Starting point is 00:06:22 Now, the most important chart, of course, coming from our friend Will Clemente, talking about illiquid supply and the supply shock ratios. We've been talking about this now for 18 months or so. When you start to look at what people are doing, lots of people are buying Bitcoin and they have a history of not selling. That's where you get this illiquid supply continuing to grow faster and faster and faster. Almost 80% of Bitcoin supply being held by people who have a history of not selling. Similar to what we saw in the summer of 2021. And when all of those people are buying Bitcoin and they're holding it and they're not willing to sell, all of a sudden you get a little increase in demand and price has to go up to accommodate everyone.

Starting point is 00:07:05 I'm not saying that's exactly what's going to happen in the short term. But what I can say is that the illiquid supply continues to go higher and higher. It provides a market dynamic that simply forces the price higher as more people continue to adopt decentralized, as digital, censorship-resistant currency. Learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #823 Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Back?! - BTC On-Chain

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.